NFL is in Trouble Post-Rodgers (or The Dried-up QB Pipeline) (1 Viewer)

[Dr. Octopus]

Can't believe nobody has mentioned Cam Newton. Not the pure passer that Manning/Brady/Rodgers but probably better than WIlson and talk about putting a franchise on your back.

Posted Today, 08:25 AM

So, when 5 HOF QBs retire, 3 of which are all-time iconic players of the NFL, there is going to be a void to fill? I think you are onto something here.

Yes, the game is different but these things work out. When Marino, Aikman, Young, Kelly, Elway, Montana were ending their run, we said the same thing. Sure, it wasn't the same, but the NFL isn't worse now than it was...just different.

Luck and Wilson and Newton are fine young players.

I wasn't talking about "fig" newton.

He's also begrudgingly mentioned in the OP, in fact, as probably the only superstar QB under 30 in the league right now.

 

[Ilov80s]

Can't believe nobody has mentioned Cam Newton.

The OP did, first post.

Yeah, but before that?

 

[Ilov80s]

Keep in mind the prime age for a QB is early to mid 30s. Brees didn't set the league on fire right away. Rodgers and Favre had to be groomed. Brady and Warner came out of the ether. There's likely a guy out there that's going to a HoF QB that we have already written off and another that we didn't even bother to pick up the pen for.

 

[Hoss Style]

You can argue Luck, but until he limits turnovers, sorry, he's not a HOF guy.

Really not getting the Luck thing here.

Luck's first 3 years: (TD/INT/Fmb) 23/18/10, 23/9/6, 40/16/13

Rodgers first 3 years: (TD/INT/Fmb): 28/13/10, 30/7/10, 28/11/4

Year one Luck 28, Rodgers 23. Year two Luck 15, Rodgers 17, Year 3 Luck 29, Rodgers 15 (Luck had 40 TDs this year, though)

Luck's had more turnover's for sure, but I don't see such a disproportionate amount that would lead me to think that he's not going to be one of the game's future greats. In fact, Rodgers had 3 years to learn before he even played. I'm not saying Luck is the next Rodgers. I am saying that Luck does ok even when compared to one of the best to play the game.

 

[FUBAR]

RG3 will be elite when he gets another shot.

I love a good Friday joke. Good job. But seriously, I think the best two QBs over the next 10 years will be Luck and Mariota. (of course, Rodgers will still be great for a lot of that time).

I actually think Russell Wilson is at his peak right now. If he loses a step over the next few years, his effectiveness will diminish greatly. His ability to sidestep and be shifty to avoid the push and then scramble for 10 yards just kills defenses. He will be great as long as he can do that. If he ever has to be a drop back pocket passer, I don't see him being much more than average. Cam needs to tay healthy too. Once the running threat goes, he becomes average.

Bortles has the tools. I think he'll be a solid QB, maybe having the career of a Carson Palmer. I don't think he'll ever be in the elite group, though.

Assuming good health, I think guys like Dalton, Bradford, Bridgewater, Foles, and Carr will be the next tier down. Not superstars, but soli reliable starters.

Agree with almost all of this.

Cam is the most exciting player in the league, absolutely a stud qb. But yeah if his legs go, he's a slightly better vick (as a football player, he's a much better person).

Luck is a star just off to a rough patch.

Agree that teddy is a future star. Could be the best of the pocket passers in a few years.

Mariota is quickly becoming a star.

 

[theplayer11]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

pfff

 

[mr roboto]

Keep in mind the prime age for a QB is early to mid 30s. Brees didn't set the league on fire right away. Rodgers and Favre had to be groomed. Brady and Warner came out of the ether. There's likely a guy out there that's going to a HoF QB that we have already written off Bortles and another that we didn't even bother to pick up the pen for Ossweiler

My guesses in bold

 

[Mighty Mice]

Derek Carr looks the part IMO. Rookie year, 55% completion rate, 21 TD, 12 INT without a good running game or bona fide receiving threat.

Not going to count week 1 this year (left very early into the game with a hand injury), but note in the last 3 games gone over 300 yards twice, 63% completion rate, 7 TD, 2 INT.

And, the next time he completes 30 passes in a game, he'll have the most such games in NFL history for a QB in their first 2 seasons (Four).

With a legit #1 WR in Cooper, sky is the limit.

 

[duaneok66]

Sorry to ruin your entire premise but luck and wilson are both superstar qbs right now.

depends on your definition of superstar.

 

[MIMN]

I can't believe that we don't have 15-20 HOF quarterbacks in the NFL every year! The sky is falling!

Snarkiness aside superstars are relative to their peers. They also develop into the **** your pants 2 minutes warning by doing it year in and year out. There will always be a handful of best quarterbacks. Those are typically the old guys or else the old guys have been forced out.

I am excited to see some of the young guys develop. I think they will be the guys you describe in a few years. Enjoy the ride.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I think the problem is more the win now mentality that puts nearly all highly drafted rookie QBs on the field immediately and as a result doesn't allow them to develop.

Is there any data to support this other than just wild speculation not even backed up by anecdotes, much less statistics? Half of the OPs list of current HOF QBs were starters from day one, as were both of the most likely future superstars.

Peyton

Eli

Big Ben

Luck

Wilson

vs.

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

 

[FreeBaGeL]

There's likely a guy out there that's going to a HoF QB that we have already written off and another that we didn't even bother to pick up the pen for.

While true, this works equally in the opposite direction. There was a time when guys like Cutler and RG3 seemed like locks to be HOF QBs, and there is an exhaustingly long list of guys that showed a lot more promise than guys like Bortles/Bridgewater and ended up falling on their faces. Neither of those guys' futures look half as bright as Mark Sanchez or Sam Bradford's did at that point in their careers, much less Kevin Kolb, Josh Freeman, Matt Stafford, or about 1000 others.

Like you mentioned, we really have no idea at this point. There could be anywhere between 0 and 32 great HOF QBs after the current crop retires. An interesting exercise is to go back and look at who people would have thought those "next" guys were 5 or 10 years ago. Very few of them worked out, but others emerged. I wouldn't be surprised if 5-10 years from now the next list is comprised mostly of guys that haven't even been mentioned in this thread, while many of the guys that have been mentioned are backups or middling starters.

 

[mr roboto]

^^^ Did you really just say neither Teddy nor Bortles' futures look half as bright as Sanchez's or Kolb's or Freeman's did? I'd say 1.25 seasons in they both look brighter than 1.25 seasons into those 3. And no there aren't 1,000.

 

[mr roboto]

Post Rodgers is also like 8 years from now. 2012-2016 draft picks will be in their late 20s-early 30s. Lots of time.

 

[cstu]

Post Rodgers is also like 8 years from now. 2012-2016 draft picks will be in their late 20s-early 30s. Lots of time.

Exactly what I was going to post.

 

[az_prof]

Rodgers was no star in his first couple years--he rode the bench behind Favre and was not highly regarded. I do think Luck and Mariota both look quite promising and there are other young QBs like Bridgewater, Carr, and Dalton who have shown promise.

 

[Alkahsu]

Stats through 1st 3 seasons as starter, including post season.

Player 1

W/L = 40-12

TD-INT = 75-41

Passing yards = 11,591

Player 2

W/L = 42-13

TD-INT = 83-31

Passing yards = 11,523

Pretty close stats with biggest difference being P2 with more TDs and fewer INTs. P1 is Brady, P2 is Wilson.

 

[elbowrm]

I think the problem is more the win now mentality that puts nearly all highly drafted rookie QBs on the field immediately and as a result doesn't allow them to develop.

Is there any data to support this other than just wild speculation not even backed up by anecdotes, much less statistics? Half of the OPs list of current HOF QBs were starters from day one, as were both of the most likely future superstars.

Peyton

Eli

Big Ben

Luck

Wilson

vs.

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

Ok so you listed 8 out of how many qb's that have played over the last x years? And Eli didn't start right away, although he did play in his rookie year. I don't feel like going through and looking it all up, but it's fairly uncontorversial to say that more rookie qb's have started NFL games over the last 5 or so years than would have been the case previously.

 

[TDorBust]

Stats through 1st 3 seasons as starter, including post season.

Player 1

W/L = 40-12

TD-INT = 75-41

Passing yards = 11,591

Player 2

W/L = 42-13

TD-INT = 83-31

Passing yards = 11,523

Pretty close stats with biggest difference being P2 with more TDs and fewer INTs. P1 is Brady, P2 is Wilson.

Don't get me started how Brady was dragged to his first Super Bowls by the rest of the team.

That being said being on pace the first 3-4 years with a future HOF does nothing to impress me since it's extremely hard to make the yearly leap in ability players like Brady and Rodgers have done.

 

[TDorBust]

Post Rodgers is also like 8 years from now. 2012-2016 draft picks will be in their late 20s-early 30s. Lots of time.

Exactly what I was going to post.

In will even take the over

Some kid in Middle School just has to be ready by the time Rodgers retires.

 

[Riversco]

Phillip Rivers is out to personally solve this by fathering about a million sons.

Actually he has 7 kids and the 8th is in the oven. Unfortunately he rolled 5 girls and only 2 boys. Peter Rivers and Gunner Rivers. Seriously, he named his son Gunner Rivers. You know the entire point is to make him an NFL QB.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Phillip Rivers is out to personally solve this by fathering about a million sons.

Actually he has 7 kids and the 8th is in the oven. Unfortunately he rolled 5 girls and only 2 boys. Peter Rivers and Gunner Rivers. Seriously, he named his son Gunner Rivers. You know the entire point is to make him an NFL QB.

That plan didn't work out too well for Boomer Esiason.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

^^^ Did you really just say neither Teddy nor Bortles' futures look half as bright as Sanchez's or Kolb's or Freeman's did? I'd say 1.25 seasons in they both look brighter than 1.25 seasons into those 3. And no there aren't 1,000.

Recency bias at its highest form. Josh Freeman threw for 7.3ypa with 25 TDs and 6 INTs in his second year. Sanchez was a top 10 draft pick that had already been to two AFC championship games by his second year, reminding people of a young Ben Roethlisberger.

People were MUCH higher on those guys at that point than anyone is about Bortles/Bridgewater now.

But hey, this is fantasy football, where people are incapable of remembering what happened yesterday and actually learning a lesson from it, hence everyone going gaga over the "sure thing" 1st round NFL draft picks at WR thanks to the 1 year trend of them all doing well (and at the same time ignoring the history of the likelihood of that that several of the guys from that invincible class would slip into sophomore slumps as well).

All that Bridgewater/Bortles have done at this point is get drafted in the 1st 2 rounds and show a few flashes of mediocrity, which describes nearly every QB drafted in the first 2 rounds over the last decade other than Blaine Gabbert. There is a huge list of guys whom people would have listed as the next big thing with as much or more confidence than Bridgewater/Bortles, and most of them with much more confidence (Stafford, Cutler, RG3, Tannehill, Bradford, Vick, Kolb, and on and on and on).

 

[mr roboto]

Wat? At the end of his second year, Freeman had hype. Did he have as much hype as Teddy did after 12 games? Sanchez was universally judged as being a game manager on a team with a great defense.

Don't lecture me about decency bias. Sounds like you are falling into romanticizing the past.

 

[cstu]

Wat? At the end of his second year, Freeman had hype. Did he have as much hype as Teddy did after 12 games? Sanchez was universally judged as being a game manager on a team with a great defense.

Don't lecture me about decency bias. Sounds like you are falling into romanticizing the past.

Freeman was hyped before we knew about his drug problem.

 

[TDorBust]

Keep in mind the prime age for a QB is early to mid 30s. Brees didn't set the league on fire right away. Rodgers and Favre had to be groomed. Brady and Warner came out of the ether. There's likely a guy out there that's going to a HoF QB that we have already written off and another that we didn't even bother to pick up the pen for.

Say what?

Rodgers was deemed a big time star by the time he was in late 20s

Favre had 3 MVPs by the time he was 28

Brees made his big leap in his late 20s when he moved to NO

Brady while pulled along by the defense initially kicked in to gear right before he turned 30

Warner is really the only story of coming out of nowhere but even with him it was a pretty quick turn around once getting in to the NFL but he was never HOF caliber except for a couple seasons so I don't think he qualifies here.

In the end I agree with the premise that possibly there is a couple of players we are overlooking but they are guys already performing well that will elevate their game. The obvious choice is Luck right now and then possibly someone like Carr, Tannehill, Bridewater, Winston, Mariota that will continue to grow over the couple next seasons.

 

[McGarnicle]

Bortles is absolutely ####### electrifying.

 

[trader jake]

I'm more concerned about the constant stoppages in action (destroying game flow) and "Goodell's vision" (whatever that is) than I am about a lack of quality quarterbacks.

The coaching of the quarterback position is more concerning than the talent at the position itself. As long as the pay at the position is ridiculous and the kids that play QB are still the rock stars of their schools athletic programs, the talent there will be fine.

 

[Ilov80s]

What about Andy Dalton? Seriously though.

 

[cr8f]

 

[MaxThreshold]

Bortles is absolutely ####### electrifying.

2015 Sleeper PickTM.

And by "Sleeper Pick" I mean that my starting QB (Roethlisberger) went down with injury so I was forced to pick him up on the WW.

 

[holben]

I think a big problem is teams are drafting these QBs and throwing them into the mix immediately. Packers drafted Rodgers and developed him for three years behind Favre and I think that is a huge part of his success.

Also, Rodgers work ethic is through the roof and I think it's a lot better than some of these kids coming out of college who prolly think their #### doesn't stink and then get rolled at NFL speed of the game.

Time will develop these QBs.

 

[Ilov80s]

The young stars: RW, Luck and Cam

The guys with talent that have flashed star potential, but also have big flaws they need to fix: Dalton, Stafford, Tannehill

The too soon to say, but so far so good: Mariota, Bridgewater, Tyrod, Carr, Bortles

 

[Hoss Style]

"All that Bridgewater/Bortles have done at this point is get drafted in the 1st 2 rounds and show a few flashes of mediocrity"

If you think that Bridgewater has only shown "flashes" of mediocrity (meaning he's looked bad most of the time, and only mediocre once in a blue moon) then I honestly don't know that you've watched him at all. He's done extremely well for what he's been asked to do in that offense, and I've watched almost every snap he's had this year. He makes some fantastic throws and if let loose I think would be a top young QB stats-wise as well.