NFL Week 1 wagering thread (1 Viewer)

[The_Man]

I usually stay away from week one, unless there's something jumping out at me. Don't see it.

I love betting Weeks 2-3, though, as a couple of things happen. #1 -- it's hard to win on the road, especially in Week 1. I love finding teams that opened on the road and looked bad in Week 1 who are coming home in Week 2 for their home opener vs. a team that opened at home (and is now maybe overvalued) going on the road for the first time.

In this category, one of my bets of the year is already shaping up to be the Jags at home vs. the Cards in Week 2. I am hoping like crazy that this week the Jags go to Indy and struggle vs. their divisional rival, while the Cards pull out an impressive home-opening win vs. SF. If that happens, maybe a few points get shaved off the line as people overrate the Cards for winning and underrate the Jags for losing, plus you have a West team playing a 1 p.m. game in the East. FWIW, I like the Jags a lot this year, and think they will play very well +7 this week at Indy -- they won at Indy last year, and lost by 3 there the previous year. If I play any game this week, that will be it. But I'm really waiting for the Jags next week.

In week 2, I'll also like the Titans coming home off a 10-day rest vs. a Houston team that opens at home, then has to travel for a 1 p.m. start. Again, I'll be cheering for the Titans to get whipped this week so their line gets depressed a little in Week 2. Next week, you also have Oakland on the road for the first time in a 1 p.m. start vs. a KC team hosting its home opener.

The second thing I look for in the first 2-3 weeks is a team that's a lot better than people thought it was going to be, and is still taking advantage of lines that haven't yet recoginzed their upturn. When Vince Young went down in Week One last year, the lines changed accordingly, with everyone thinking the Titans were going to struggle with Collins as their QB. Instead, he was better than Young and the Titans paid off like an ATM for over a month until they got to be 5 or 6-0 and the lines finally caught up with them.

Good luck this week, and I'll jump in off the sidelines in Week 2.

 

[TheWick]

I'm not understanding the HOU love at all...what makes you guys think they can handle that D and running game?

 

[kroyrunner89]

I'm not understanding the HOU love at all...what makes you guys think they can handle that D and running game?

I'll agree with you here Wick, I was a bit gung-ho about Houston when I first saw this line last week, but after some reconsideration I don't think I'm going to make a play on it. I certainly wouldn't back the Jets with a rookie QB on the road, but I think you can do better than Houston this week.

 

[maxwelledison]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.

I love GB; Bears can't stop anybody. And BAL -13 tells me that KC will be fortunate to see the right side of the 50.

 

[Burning Sensation]

After going over things a bit more thoroughly, i am really starting to like the Bengals -4. The Broncos might be picking #1 in next years NFL draft(Well, the Seahawks have the Broncos #1). The Bengals went 5-3 over the last 8 weeks last year, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think the Bengals win 8 games this year, and should easily cover against a Broncos team going in the wrong direction.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.I love GB; Bears can't stop anybody. And BAL -13 tells me that KC will be fortunate to see the right side of the 50.

I usually play games that appear to be "traps", because i dont really think oddsmakers are thinking, "hey, lets make this game look like a lock, even though its not". They set the lines based on what they feel the outcome will be, and adjust accordingly based on where they think the action will go. Bettors made up the term "trap" for games they think are to good to be true. I dont believe in a game being to good to be true, i just look at it as a good bet, and they mostly work out for me. The thing i dont like, as i mentioned in my previos post, is i dont like taking road favorites. I do however make the occasional exception if it is not divisional, and looks this good.

 

[kroyrunner89]

The Bengals are an interesting pick, I'm still trying to decide what to do about them. Had I seen a bit more of Palmer this preseason I'd feel much better... plus I don't think I hate the Bronco's offense as much as everyone else seems to

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Insane love for favorites itt.

Bucs +5.5

Skins +6.5

Bengals -4.5

Packers -3.5

 

[Blackjacks]

I believe Jeff [staff member] did this last yearI like Dolphins +4Bengals -4.5Browns +4Redskins +4.5Packers -4

I'd like to hear what you're thinking about the Dolphins in this spot, Atlanta plays much better at home and I just don't think Miami can keep up with them.

I think Miami is a very good all around team......I think ATL has a good offense. I see ATL as the biggest disappointment team in the league this year. Miami wins this game outright and probably by more than a td IMO.

 

[kroyrunner89]

I believe Jeff [staff member] did this last yearI like Dolphins +4Bengals -4.5Browns +4Redskins +4.5Packers -4

I'd like to hear what you're thinking about the Dolphins in this spot, Atlanta plays much better at home and I just don't think Miami can keep up with them.

I think Miami is a very good all around team......I think ATL has a good offense. I see ATL as the biggest disappointment team in the league this year. Miami wins this game outright and probably by more than a td IMO.

so then given the way you're talking, don't you think the over would be the best play?

 

[Manster]

just tryin to stimulate conversation. lets keep it goin, as im not sure of anything right now.

I'm not understanding the HOU love at all...what makes you guys think they can handle that D and running game?

Houston offense>>>>Jets offense is what im thinkin. and Houston at home. i really think Houston has a pretty decent team.

After going over things a bit more thoroughly, i am really starting to like the Bengals -4. The Broncos might be picking #1 in next years NFL draft(Well, the Seahawks have the Broncos #1). The Bengals went 5-3 over the last 8 weeks last year, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think the Bengals win 8 games this year, and should easily cover against a Broncos team going in the wrong direction.

yea, but it's the Bungles...............although, they are a different team with Palmer at the helm. and it's in Cincy. you got me thinkin about this one. Denver prolly doesnt have the best morale and might be questioning their HC right now.......huh.

I believe Jeff [staff member] did this last yearI like Dolphins +4Bengals -4.5Browns +4Redskins +4.5Packers -4

I'd like to hear what you're thinking about the Dolphins in this spot, Atlanta plays much better at home and I just don't think Miami can keep up with them.

I think Miami is a very good all around team......I think ATL has a good offense. I see ATL as the biggest disappointment team in the league this year. Miami wins this game outright and probably by more than a td IMO.

you think? i see Turner poundin the rock.i admit, Miami is not a team i follow closely. are they that good on defense? i think they are ranked around 10 for fantasy, which means next to nothing for betting purposes. i'd like to hear your thoughts in more detail on this matchup

 

[Stillers Jr.]

Here's my 6-pack

HOU -4.5 - I agree with the "rookie QB playing on the road in his first NFL start" sentiment

NE -10.5 - I mean they're the Pats...best team of the millennium. Seriously though, they will run it up to prove Bwady is a machine.

SF +6.5 - My perennial darkhorse pick. Love Patrick Willis...shoulda been in Black and Gold.

PHI -1 - I think the Panthers will struggle and the Iggle D is gonna be solid. Plus, there hasn't been nearly enough time for Westbrook to get dinged up.

MIN -4.5 - Watch the Vikes dismantle the Browns and run through them. Watch it, it's gonna happen

TEN +6 - I'm pessimistic about the Stillers in the home opener.

 

[Blackjacks]

I believe Jeff [staff member] did this last yearI like Dolphins +4Bengals -4.5Browns +4Redskins +4.5Packers -4

I'd like to hear what you're thinking about the Dolphins in this spot, Atlanta plays much better at home and I just don't think Miami can keep up with them.

I think Miami is a very good all around team......I think ATL has a good offense. I see ATL as the biggest disappointment team in the league this year. Miami wins this game outright and probably by more than a td IMO.

so then given the way you're talking, don't you think the over would be the best play?

Miami is a very disciplined team, especially on defense. I know Matt Ryan had a solid freshman year but take a good look at his #'s from last year. Was it really that great of a year?34OO yards 16 td's and 11 int'sThat's about 21O yards a game and 1 td [.O8 int's a game] and 7 ints in his last 5 gamesI think they are a very overhyped team going into the year.Pennington 36OO yards and 19 td's [only 7 int's almost half of Ryan]. I know Penny isn't as "sexy of a player" as Ryan but he gets the job down and he doesn't turn the ball over plus he is a seasoned vet. I think you'll see a very above average preformance early out of Miami especially early on as I think Sparano is a very good coaach and Parcell teams' are always very prepared and disciplined. The secondary in Miami is gonna be great this year. I wouldn't start Ryan in this game for fantasy purposed and I wouldn't bet against Miami.Ronnie Brown.......BIG GAME

 

[kroyrunner89]

Miami is a very disciplined team, especially on defense. I know Matt Ryan had a solid freshman year but take a good look at his #'s from last year. Was it really that great of a year?34OO yards 16 td's and 11 int'sThat's about 21O yards a game and 1 td [.O8 int's a game] and 7 ints in his last 5 gamesI think they are a very overhyped team going into the year.Pennington 36OO yards and 19 td's [only 7 int's almost half of Ryan]. I know Penny isn't as "sexy of a player" as Ryan but he gets the job down and he doesn't turn the ball over plus he is a seasoned vet. I think you'll see a very above average preformance early out of Miami especially early on as I think Sparano is a very good coaach and Parcell teams' are always very prepared and disciplined. The secondary in Miami is gonna be great this year. I wouldn't start Ryan in this game for fantasy purposed and I wouldn't bet against Miami.Ronnie Brown.......BIG GAME

I just can't get on board with the Dolphins, idk maybe I'm relying too much on the Atlanta home field advantage. Although it seems to be fading in the NFL as of late, Atlanta is one place where it seemed to exist last year. Turner was a beast at home, his numbers broke down as follows:Home: 5.1 YPC, 14 tdAway: 3.9 YPC, 3 tdLet's break down home vs. away numbers for each of the teams in question:Atlanta Home: 29.63 PPG, 20.5 PAPGAtlanta Away: 19.25 PPG, 20.125 PAPGMiami Home: 18.62 PPG, 20.5 PAPGMiami Away: 24.5 PPG, 19.125 PAPGWhile it appears Miami performed slightly better on the road than at home last season, I have a lot easier of a time believing Atlanta will stay true to their strong home numbers than believing that Miami will be able to steal one on the road opening day. Although their defense is on the rise, a great secondary won't do them much good if Turner eats them alive.

 

[maxwelledison]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.I love GB; Bears can't stop anybody. And BAL -13 tells me that KC will be fortunate to see the right side of the 50.

I usually play games that appear to be "traps", because i dont really think oddsmakers are thinking, "hey, lets make this game look like a lock, even though its not". They set the lines based on what they feel the outcome will be, and adjust accordingly based on where they think the action will go. Bettors made up the term "trap" for games they think are to good to be true. I dont believe in a game being to good to be true, i just look at it as a good bet, and they mostly work out for me. The thing i dont like, as i mentioned in my previos post, is i dont like taking road favorites. I do however make the occasional exception if it is not divisional, and looks this good.

I don't think the oddsmakers are thinking that, either. And I agree that the number is (usually) an indication of how close the game will be. In this case Minnesota should destroy Cleveland be it in impressive (big lead early) or workmanlike fashion. That Vegas is telling me the game will be closer than a TD gives me pause. I don't have the #s but my anecdotal experience confirms this; a buddy and I closed down a local book after college using this approach. Cue the Look at Me posts.

 

[PC Load Letter]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.

I love GB; Bears can't stop anybody. And BAL -13 tells me that KC will be fortunate to see the right side of the 50.

What does this mean?

 

[kroyrunner89]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.

I love GB; Bears can't stop anybody. And BAL -13 tells me that KC will be fortunate to see the right side of the 50.

What does this mean?

I think he's saying KC will be lucky to cross midfield.

 

[PC Load Letter]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.

I love GB; Bears can't stop anybody. And BAL -13 tells me that KC will be fortunate to see the right side of the 50.

What does this mean?

I think he's saying KC will be lucky to cross midfield.

Oh man, I'm a doofus. I didn't see the word "the" in "the 50". So to me it sounded like the "right side of 50" and I was like 50 what? Points? Yards? :facepalm:

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Just letting you know that my picks will now be found in a new column for subscribers called "For The Win", starting tomorrow.

 

[Blackjacks]

Just letting you know that my picks will now be found in a new column for subscribers called "For The Win", starting tomorrow.

nice

 

[SuperJohn96]

Arg...I'm in a football pool at work...we start with 1500 points and can bet on 1-3 games a week with however many points (50 pt increments) we want on the games.

So he sends us the lines, and Minny is 2.5 pt favourites over the Browns.

How on earth can I pass this up?

Oh, and Minny was 4-4 on the road last year, whatever that is worth.

$30 per team, last year $570 went to first place, who finished with 8600+ pts

I am thinking of laying down like 1200 points on Minny and jumping out to a big lead if they win.

Just go for the gold so to speak...

Thoughts?

 

[Manster]

Arg...I'm in a football pool at work...we start with 1500 points and can bet on 1-3 games a week with however many points (50 pt increments) we want on the games.

So he sends us the lines, and Minny is 2.5 pt favourites over the Browns.

How on earth can I pass this up?

Oh, and Minny was 4-4 on the road last year, whatever that is worth.

$30 per team, last year $570 went to first place, who finished with 8600+ pts

I am thinking of laying down like 1200 points on Minny and jumping out to a big lead if they win.

Just go for the gold so to speak...

Thoughts?

just remember, the game is in Cleveland, other than that, i like Minny. although, they are kinda overrated since captain grey bush came aboard.im just sayin, im not so sure this game is as a big of a lock as some see it to be. -2.5 is tempting though.

 

[SuperJohn96]

Arg...I'm in a football pool at work...we start with 1500 points and can bet on 1-3 games a week with however many points (50 pt increments) we want on the games.

So he sends us the lines, and Minny is 2.5 pt favourites over the Browns.

How on earth can I pass this up?

Oh, and Minny was 4-4 on the road last year, whatever that is worth.

$30 per team, last year $570 went to first place, who finished with 8600+ pts

I am thinking of laying down like 1200 points on Minny and jumping out to a big lead if they win.

Just go for the gold so to speak...

Thoughts?

just remember, the game is in Cleveland, other than that, i like Minny. although, they are kinda overrated since captain grey bush came aboard.im just sayin, im not so sure this game is as a big of a lock as some see it to be. -2.5 is tempting though.

I threw 1,000 points on Minny. :crossesfingers:

 

[kroyrunner89]

Arg...I'm in a football pool at work...we start with 1500 points and can bet on 1-3 games a week with however many points (50 pt increments) we want on the games.

So he sends us the lines, and Minny is 2.5 pt favourites over the Browns.

How on earth can I pass this up?

Oh, and Minny was 4-4 on the road last year, whatever that is worth.

$30 per team, last year $570 went to first place, who finished with 8600+ pts

I am thinking of laying down like 1200 points on Minny and jumping out to a big lead if they win.

Just go for the gold so to speak...

Thoughts?

just remember, the game is in Cleveland, other than that, i like Minny. although, they are kinda overrated since captain grey bush came aboard.im just sayin, im not so sure this game is as a big of a lock as some see it to be. -2.5 is tempting though.

I threw 1,000 points on Minny. :crossesfingers:

good luck man, i'm staying away from that game so no reason why i can't pull for ya! does anybody have any final thoughts on tonight's game before it kicks off?

 

[Billy Bats]

I'm goin with the pats, jags and skins as my three teams opening week.

Hey what Websites do you guys like to read for predictions for gambling and/or fantasy purposes??

 

[kroyrunner89]

I'm goin with the pats, jags and skins as my three teams opening week.Hey what Websites do you guys like to read for predictions for gambling and/or fantasy purposes??

lol well i like mine for gambling... but i might be a bit biased. sorry for the shameless self promotion! for fantasy, who can top footballguys??

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.

Thought the same thing but went with the Vikes -3.5. Seahawks -7.5, Cards -6.5, and Raiders +9 also in play along with an over in the Panturds/Iggles game.

 

[facook]

3 team parlay:

Minny -4.5

Seattle -7.5

Baltimore -13

 

[JKL]

Well, I actually like a lot of plays this week, and pretty much opposite of many picks in here. There are several divisional similar climate, close proximity rivalry games, which have historically shown virtually no home field advantage and provided point spread opportunities for the road team, particularly as an underdog. For example, in the Chicago-Green Bay series since 1960, the home team is only 49-49 SU. Since 1983, the road team is 30-20-2 ATS.

Anyway, to the picks:

CLEVELAND +4.5 vs Minnesota. Contrary to what I read early in this thread, HFA is strongest in inter-conference games where teams are not familiar with the opponent's venue and rarely visit. Minnesota, a dome team, hasn't played a game outdoors in Cleveland since 1989. Interconference home underdogs are 19-19 SU and 22-15-1 ATS in the first game of the season since 1983.

Chicago +4 at GREEN BAY. See above.

Buffalo +10.5 at NEW ENGLAND. See above, the home team in the BUF/NE series is only 51-46-1 since 1960 SU. Also, the last 37 teams to be favored by 9 or more on opening day are 14-23 ATS, including SD and NE last year.

Kansas City +13 at BALTIMORE. Ditto.

Washington +6.5 at NY GIANTS. See above re: division rivals, same climate.

Finally, this one I don't have any trend stats, I'm just not as down on this 9-7 team from last season that is replacing a 38 yr old Qb who is not starting for anyone else, and replacing a coach who wore out his welcome, but has a young and reloaded offensive line entering its collective prime:

TAMPA BAY +6 vs Dallas

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Well, I actually like a lot of plays this week, and pretty much opposite of many picks in here. There are several divisional similar climate, close proximity rivalry games, which have historically shown virtually no home field advantage and provided point spread opportunities for the road team, particularly as an underdog. For example, in the Chicago-Green Bay series since 1960, the home team is only 49-49 SU. Since 1983, the road team is 30-20-2 ATS.Anyway, to the picks:CLEVELAND +4.5 vs Minnesota. Contrary to what I read early in this thread, HFA is strongest in inter-conference games where teams are not familiar with the opponent's venue and rarely visit. Minnesota, a dome team, hasn't played a game outdoors in Cleveland since 1989. Interconference home underdogs are 19-19 SU and 22-15-1 ATS in the first game of the season since 1983.Chicago +4 at GREEN BAY. See above.Buffalo +10.5 at NEW ENGLAND. See above, the home team in the BUF/NE series is only 51-46-1 since 1960 SU. Also, the last 37 teams to be favored by 9 or more on opening day are 14-23 ATS, including SD and NE last year. Kansas City +13 at BALTIMORE. Ditto.Washington +6.5 at NY GIANTS. See above re: division rivals, same climate.Finally, this one I don't have any trend stats, I'm just not as down on this 9-7 team from last season that is replacing a 38 yr old Qb who is not starting for anyone else, and replacing a coach who wore out his welcome, but has a young and reloaded offensive line entering its collective prime:TAMPA BAY +6 vs Dallas

Good background and explanation. I like a lot of dogs early in the season also but I don't take a lot of the historical considerations into account because they are...well historical. I think some of the background based on the week itself and not the teams is valuable, everything else I don't care for. Buffalo could have won in NE last year for all I care, this isn't last year. That said the Balt/KC line is ridiculous considering Baltimore's offense is still a bit suspect. I wouldn't touch the Skins/Giants game or the Bears and Packers but if i did I'd probably take the dog.

 

[kroyrunner89]

Week 1 Plays:

* San Francisco 49ers +6

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

* Atlanta Falcons -4

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

* Arizona/SF UNDER 46

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

* Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

* New Orleans Saints -13.5

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

* Saints/Lions OVER 48

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

 

[pantherclub]

Panthers look to be a lock this week to win outright. Plus they are catching a point. Phillys oline is in disarray, Westy has a bum knee and their D is a little banged up. Carolina gets back to full strength on D and Offense.

 

[Blackjacks]

Panthers look to be a lock this week to win outright. Plus they are catching a point. Phillys oline is in disarray, Westy has a bum knee and their D is a little banged up. Carolina gets back to full strength on D and Offense.

I refuse to ever bet on a team led by Jake Delhomme ever again. ps: I would never call a team led by Jake Delhomme a LOCK

 

[pantherclub]

Jake = 1-1 vs spread against the Saints 2008

 

[Blackjacks]

Jake = 2-0 vs spread against the Saints 2008

So???????Not a Saints fan, try again.The quicker Moore gets in the lineup the better for the team

 

[tribecalledjeff]

YTD: 1-1, -1.3 units

This week's plays:

Cleveland +4.5

SF +6.5

Wash +6.5

STL +9

Jax +7 (-20)

All for 2 units.

GL

 

[Zowned]

1:00 Games:

Minnesota - 5...6 units

Jacksonville +7...4 units

Carolina +3...6 units

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

New thread every week or this going to be one big one?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Week 1 Plays: * San Francisco 49ers +6I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover. * Atlanta Falcons -4Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover. * Arizona/SF UNDER 46This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play. * Green Bay Packers -4The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up. * New Orleans Saints -13.5Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory. * Saints/Lions OVER 48This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

Took the Saints and the over in that game based on this post as a sort of confirmation. You have a decent shot at getting these all right, I'll be next week for your picks.

 

[TheWick]

nice job kroyrunner...real nice

 

[Zowned]

4:00

Washington +6 1/2...4 units W

St. Louis +7 1/2...4 units (oops) L

CFB

Sides: 2-1, +2 units

Totals: 0-0

Side/Total Parlay: 1-0, +7 units

NFL

Sides: 4-4, +2.5 units

Totals: 0-1, -3.3 units

Overall: 7-5, +8.2 units

Leaning towards Green Bay -5 1/2 tonight for a 6 unit play and big on New England tomorrow night.

 

[Stillers Jr.]

Here's my 6-pack

HOU -4.5 - I agree with the "rookie QB playing on the road in his first NFL start" sentiment

NE -10.5 - I mean they're the Pats...best team of the millennium. Seriously though, they will run it up to prove Bwady is a machine.

SF +6.5 - My perennial darkhorse pick. Love Patrick Willis...shoulda been in Black and Gold.

PHI -1 - I think the Panthers will struggle and the Iggle D is gonna be solid. Plus, there hasn't been nearly enough time for Westbrook to get dinged up.

MIN -4.5 - Watch the Vikes dismantle the Browns and run through them. Watch it, it's gonna happen

TEN +6 - I'm pessimistic about the Stillers in the home opener.

4-1 so far with NE tomorrow...WTF is wrong with Hou? That was pathetic.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

YTD: 1-1, -1.3 unitsThis week's plays:Cleveland +4.5SF +6.5Wash +6.5STL +9Jax +7 (-20)All for 2 units.GL

today: 3-2, +1.3 unitsytd: 4-3, +0 units

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Haven't played in a while but MIN-CLE looks like a trap.

Thought the same thing but went with the Vikes -3.5. Seahawks -7.5, Cards -6.5, and Raiders +9 also in play along with an over in the Panturds/Iggles game.

3 for 4 (Raiders still out) and the Vikes and the Iggles over was a parlay. On a whim I took the Saints, Saints/Lions over, and Green Bay based on Kroyrunner's post (never heard of the guy before last night) on a 3-team parlay. That worked out well so this was a pretty good week one for me having sat on the sidelines for the past 5 years. I'll probably fall on my ### next weekend so I'll enjoy the moment.

 

[facook]

3 team parlay:Minny -4.5Seattle -7.5Baltimore -13

 

[kroyrunner89]

Looks like a lot of you had a good weekend, I'm happy to see my fellow footballguys making some bank! 6-0 to start the season for me, I'd like to thank the Packers for the lucky cover. I'm sure breaks like that will even out along the way, but nice to have one go for me. I may have a play for tomorrow, I haven't decided yet. I'll post it up tomorrow afternoon if I decide on something!

 

[jdoggydogg]

I hit on New Orleans today. Hoping for more luck in my other long wood bet tomorrow (Pats -10.5).

 

[Blackjacks]

Week 1 Plays: * San Francisco 49ers +6I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover. * Atlanta Falcons -4Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover. * Arizona/SF UNDER 46This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play. * Green Bay Packers -4The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up. * New Orleans Saints -13.5Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory. * Saints/Lions OVER 48This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

nice job

 

[Zowned]

Nice job kroy. Thoughts on tomorrow night? I'm leaning towards NE pretty big. Also, anyone check out Jeff P's plays? 4-0 on his 2-star games this week with New England still to go. My original plan was to follow his by themself but then decided to toss in Carolina and St. Louis, oops.

 

[kroyrunner89]

Nice job kroy. Thoughts on tomorrow night? I'm leaning towards NE pretty big. Also, anyone check out Jeff P's plays? 4-0 on his 2-star games this week with New England still to go. My original plan was to follow his by themself but then decided to toss in Carolina and St. Louis, oops.

I definitely have no plays in the Oakland/San Diego game tomorrow, the New England game is the one I can't decide on. I need to know the status of Welker which I'm about to go searching for, and then I need to do a little additional research. I definitely am leaning Pats, but I still have a lot of unanswered questions about that team that has me a bit uneasy betting them tomorrow night. I think I'd rather just wait a week or two before I start dealing with them but I'll be back tomorrow afternoon with a final decision.