Nicks - The Classic Over Reaction (1 Viewer)

[patv66]

Lots of good posters locking Nicks in as a top 10 WR from here on out.

I don't dispute that Nicks provided some solid value were he was taken in many drafts, but he is more like a top 20 WR than a top 10 (or 5 as some are posting).

As a Giants homer, I'll say the following:

-Steve Smith is still Eli's favorite target. Nicks may be the guy in the red zone, but Smith will lead the team in catches again this year.

-I would not call them a pass first team. This team will want to run come the second half of the season in this stadium. One poor game from the Giants run blocking does not make them a pass first team. Expect balance. Matchups will dictate the run-pass ratio on a given day, but you'd be wrong to call this a pass first team.

-Manningham will get back in the mix once he is at 100%.

I'm not denying Nicks talent. Guy is a beast, and I love him. If the Boss injury is significant, you can bump Nicks up A BIT.

But slow down on projecting a top 10 finish. It is a one week knee-jerk to do so.

Expect some variance in his games...he'll go off with 5-130 and a TD in spots....but expect a lot of 2- 40 -0 games, as well.

62-70 Rec

950 - 1070 Yards

8-11 TDs

A top 15 at best....

 

[eoMMan]

I couldn't disagree more. Nicks is the playmaker in that offense. He'll get his. 1,000 yards and 6 to 8 TD's is his FLOOR, imo. I think he'll have about 1,200 yards and 8 to 10 TD's when all is said and done.

 

[footballsavvy]

I couldn't disagree more. Nicks is the playmaker in that offense. He'll get his. 1,000 yards and 6 to 8 TD's is his FLOOR, imo. I think he'll have about 1,200 yards and 8 to 10 TD's when all is said and done.

He's a playmaker but so is Manningham. Three TD's in an anomoly for any player. He only had 4 catches on 8 targets. You better hope he keeps up a ridiculous TD/catch ratio because he ain't cracking the top 10 on 4 catches per game. Do you really think his end of the year stats will be 64 catches 1200 yards and 48 TDs?The way some people are talking here it sounds like I could get Andre Johnson for Hakeem Nick straight up.

 

[simmonjm]

I couldn't disagree more. Nicks is the playmaker in that offense. He'll get his. 1,000 yards and 6 to 8 TD's is his FLOOR, imo. I think he'll have about 1,200 yards and 8 to 10 TD's when all is said and done.

Nicks is able to consistently beat single coverage, and is an excellent red zone target. As the season goes on Eli will trust him more and I anticipate simliar numbers to what Plaxico used to put up somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 catches 1100 yds, and 12 tds.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

One of Eli's INTs was all on Nicks...went through his hands.

That said...he adjusts to the ball well in the air and looks like a playmaker. No sophomore slump here.

 

[gandalas]

I just don't know on him...

I have Miles Austin, Chad Johnson, and Steve Smith (Car), with Nicks as my 4th (non-starting) WR.

I just don't know how he can get in my lineup over those 3 guys, for this season at least. Sure, I missed out on his 3-TD game, but 85 actually outscored him, and the other 2 were close.

Top-20, maybe. Top-10? I seriously doubt it.

 

[footballnerd]

Sell high

 

[Air Stich]

Does it really matter whether we project him at top 20 or top 10? He had 8 targets, which tied SS for the team lead and he excelled in ways that he always has: TDs and YPC. It's not like anyone's going to give up Andre Johnson (or another top 10 WR) for him, so I doubt he gets traded in too many leagues. Most people who own him drafted him by design and are probably not looking to move him.

He looks like a must start in a start 3 WR league. Whether he finishes top 10 or top 30 remains to be seen.

And I think a floor of 8 TDs is a little low now. I'd bet that he easily gets more than 5 TDs in the next 15 games as long as he stays on the field.

 

[steelwind]

Classic sell high.

 

[jurb26]

Does anyone have the breakdown of targets for the game?

 

[Resident A]

Nicks already has 3 TDs. He needs .46 TDs per game to reach 10 TDs on the year, I'd say he's a near lock if healthy.

 

[Da Guru]

Nicks already has 3 TDs. He needs .46 TDs per game to reach 10 TDs on the year, I'd say he's a near lock if healthy.

Nicks is on a 48 TD pace. I think 24 is more realistic though..there will be games that he gets only 1-2.

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

-Steve Smith is still Eli's favorite target. Nicks may be the guy in the red zone, but Smith will lead the team in catches again this year.

can you provide evidence of this? Both Smith and Nicks had 8 targets yesterday

 

[valhallan]

Why should anyone rush to sell a 1st round (NFL) receiver with an excellent rookie season and great 1st game his sophomore year? If you had done that with Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald you would have missed out on top 5 seasons. Yeah he may not be Calvin or Fitz, but he's a legit talent and has done nothing but prove that since gaining playing time.

 

[kadlet51]

Yeah - I'm not buying the "sell high" talk at all. Look - Nicks was hyped coming into this year for a reason. He's got great size and is freakishly talented. It's clear Eli trusts him - several passes could be defined as "throw it up and let Nicks go get it". He was targeted just as much as Smith.

Clearly he won't get 3TDs every week, but I think he hits double digits combined with 70 receptions or so and 1200 yards.

My stance? When a player has as much ability and potential as he does, receives as much positive buzz during the offseason as he does (including from his own teammate Smith) and then comes right out of the gate in week one and validates all of it, I tend to take that as a very good sign.

 

[harryhood]

He can excel at Eli's favorite ball, and that is the back-shoulder fade. This is the same route that made Plax what he was when coming over to the Giants.

PPR it is close, but I would take Smith.

Non-PPR give me Nicks all day long. The guy will score 12 TDs this year.

 

[Brady Gaga]

One of Eli's INTs was all on Nicks...went through his hands.

That said...he adjusts to the ball well in the air and looks like a playmaker. No sophomore slump here.

I think you're referring to the play where RAMSES BARDEN let a ball go thru his hands and the result was an interception. Unless I missed another one like that where it was Nicks.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

One of Eli's INTs was all on Nicks...went through his hands.

That said...he adjusts to the ball well in the air and looks like a playmaker. No sophomore slump here.

I think you're referring to the play where RAMSES BARDEN let a ball go thru his hands and the result was an interception. Unless I missed another one like that where it was Nicks.

All three Manning INTs went off Giants' hands. IIRC the first one was off of Nicks.

 

[mr roboto]

Sell high guys are ones who have outperformed their talent/situation. While he won't have 3TD's, he has amazing talent and a great situation with a top notch possession WR on the other side. Now if this was a guy like Mark 'week 1 wonder' Clayton then you sell now.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Giant homer here. Nicks is the most electric recieved I have seen in my more than 25 years watching the team. The only offensive players who've rivaled him for that kind of playmaking were Meggett and Bradshaw early in their careers. I like manningham, but the kid is a bit stupid. Smith is dependable but profiles more like a slot guy to me. I'd love if nicks were 2 inches taller, but if he was he would have been a top 10 pick. So while I think he won't keep up this 48 td pace, he's absolutely and obviously a talent. The boldin comparsions seem very apt at this point.

On top of it all, he's in his second year and played hurt in the first. I'd be real excited about what he can do.

And yes, I'm not just a Hakeem nicks fan club member, I'm also an owner

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

ive been overhyping him for months now though! not because of week one!

 

[PinkydaPimp]

ive been overhyping him for months now though! not because of week one!

THis.I have been targeting him to be a top 15 wr. So while i didnt expect 3 tds, i have been expecting a great year from him.While everyone was targeting smith in drafts, i was targeting Nicks in rnd 6. So far looks like a good investment.

 

[MrSoup]

Yep. I've been overreacting for him since about April or May

 

[Lobary]

Kicking myself for passing up on him for Harvin. I was concerned that he wouldn't get enough targets in that offense and would be a classic boom or bust player each week. Now I'm afraid he's blossoming into Eli's next Plaxico.