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no consensus #1 draft pick in 2009? (1 Viewer)

red

Footballguy
with the regular FF season winding down, i start to think about next year's draft (and possibly trading up or down for picks). however, it seems like the LT, LJ, priest, faulk, etc of year's past eludes us this year. in other words, there doesn't seem to be a consensus #1 overall pick for FF drafts next year....yet.

adrian peterson could be a good bet, but the viqueens have struggled and i don't have faith in childress or the QB

LT seems on the SA/down side of his career. maybe he bounces back, but will you risk it at #1?

LJ has had his problems and plays on a team that is rebounding, but will he still be a part of it?

boldin had/is having a monster year, but so did moss last year. and, who takes a WR at #1 anyway...too many to choose from (TO, AJ, Calvin Johnson, wayne)

jacobs but he's part of earth wind and fire RBBC

addai? perhaps, but he sure isn't perforning consistently like a #1 (nor are the colts). what about rhodes

westbrook? too inconsistent? injury prone? mcnabb v. kolb?

sjax is on a cr@ppy team with an aging, injured QB/oline...do you see it rebounding next year?

gore is on a mediocre team still trying to find its way with a QB and offensive scheme, not to mention a new HC

pmanning has come down to earth. brady was injured. romo too. palmer has fallen off the world. so, which QB? brees, but at #1?!?!?!?!!? i think not.

then you've got guys who show promise and might have the opportunity too, but not enough to warrant #1 overall: pierre thomas, ray rice/l mcclain, slaton, hightower, forte

i just don't see having the #1 overall pick as an opportunity to nab that consensus "stud." better to be in the top 5 or 7 and and grab value while having a higher 2nd round pick on the serpentine.

Who would say, as of right now, is the "consensus" number overall pick for FF drafts in 2009?

 
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with the regular FF season winding down, i start to think about next year's draft (and possibly trading up or down for picks). however, it seems like the LT, LJ, priest, faulk, etc of year's past eludes us this year. in other words, there doesn't seem to be a consensus #1 overall pick for FF drafts next year....yet.adrian peterson could be a good bet, but the viqueens have struggled and i don't have faith in childress or the QBLT seems on the SA/down side of his career. maybe he bounces back, but will you risk it at #1?LJ has had his problems and plays on a team that is rebounding, but will he still be a part of it?boldin had/is having a monster year, but so did moss last year. and, who takes a WR at #1 anyway...too many to choose from (TO, AJ, Calvin Johnson, wayne)jacobs but he's part of earth wind and fire RBBCaddai? perhaps, but he sure isn't perforning consistently like a #1 (nor are the colts). what about rhodeswestbrook? too inconsistent? injury prone? mcnabb v. kolb?sjax is on a cr@ppy team with an aging, injured QB/oline...do you see it rebounding next year?gore is on a mediocre team still trying to find its way with a QB and offensive scheme, not to mention a new HCpmanning has come down to earth. brady was injured. romo too. palmer has fallen off the world. so, which QB? brees, but at #1?!?!?!?!!? i think not.then you've got guys who show promise and might have the opportunity too, but not enough to warrant #1 overall: pierre thomas, ray rice/l mcclain, slaton, hightower, fortei just don't see having the #1 overall pick as an opportunity to nab that consensus "stud." better to be in the top 5 or 7 and and grab value while having a higher 2nd round pick on the serpentine.Who would say, as of right now, is the "consensus" number overall pick for FF drafts in 2009?
Michael "the Burner" Turner
 
1. ADP

2. Westy

3. Turner

4. MB III

5. CJ3

6 MJD

7. Gore

8. Forte

9. Brown

10. Jacobs

11. LT2

12. Portis

Not sure on TJ, depending on what favre does.

 
I would think Peterson would be the consensus #1 pick.

Having said this, I think it's going to be a good year to have a low pick, lots of value if a guy like SJax drops to the late 1st/early 2nd round.

 
1. ADP2. Westy3. Turner4. MB III5. CJ36 MJD7. Gore8. Forte9. Brown10. Jacobs11. LT212. PortisNot sure on TJ, depending on what favre does.
That's as good a list as any right now, 1. ADP2. Westy3. MB III4. Turner5. CJ36 MJD7. Gore8. Forte9. Brown10. Jacobs11. LT212. SJax (he'll go higher)13. Portis14. Lynch15. Slaton16. Addai?
 
1. AP

2. Forte

3. Westbrook

4. CJ3

5. MBIII

6. Turner

7. Gore

8. MJD

9. Slaton

10. LT2

11. Portis

12. Brees

 
1. AP2. Forte3. Westbrook4. CJ35. MBIII6. Turner7. Gore8. MJD9. Slaton10. LT211. Portis12. Brees
Wow, Deangelo Williams being the #1 RB in fantasy points (in my league format) doesn't even get a mention here with the likes of Forte, C.Johnson, and Slaton making the list...
 
I would think Peterson would be the consensus #1 pick.Having said this, I think it's going to be a good year to have a low pick, lots of value if a guy like SJax drops to the late 1st/early 2nd round.
:confused: If I were stuck with the #1 I'd go Peterson, but I'd probably prefer to pick towards the end. I haven't done any 2009 tiers yet so I can't say for sure.
 
I wonder how high Westbrook would have been on peoples list before his Thanksgiving game. He has been pretty terrible all year.

Peterson

Forte

Barber

Turner

are my top 4

 
I wonder how high Westbrook would have been on peoples list before his Thanksgiving game. He has been pretty terrible all year. PetersonForteBarberTurner are my top 4
On a PPG basis, Westbrook is easily in the top 5. He has been the total opposite of terrible all year. He just missed a lot of time due to injury.
 
1. AP2. Forte3. Westbrook4. CJ35. MBIII6. Turner7. Gore8. MJD9. Slaton10. LT211. Portis12. Brees
Wow, Deangelo Williams being the #1 RB in fantasy points (in my league format) doesn't even get a mention here with the likes of Forte, C.Johnson, and Slaton making the list...
I am projecting for next year, not rest of the season or who was the best this year. True, D Williams has had a hell of a season, but I don't like the prospects of Stewart getting more involved next year. Same with Thomas Jones vs Leon Washington. If I am picking a rb in the 1st rd, you can best believe I'm taking a guy who will not be in an RBBC. I have a feeling Lendale White will not be in TEN next season, which is why I have CJ3 ranked so high.
 
Right now, I'm not sure how anyone doubts AP at #1. I suppose you could make a case for MBIII as well, but Peterson seems like a lock in my December '08 book.

I was not high on him because last year he scored in bunches, got hurt and really looked human toward the end of the seaosn. But this year he's made a believer out of me. Sure, he could get hurt (anyone can), but he's been more consistent even though everyone game plans to take him away (even Childress sometimes). He's a tough runner who consistently puts up good numbers.

I'd probably have to burn an earlier pick on Taylor for peace of mind, but it's worth it imo.

 
Westy at 2 or 3 :lmao: He should be a middle second rounder.

ADP

Turner

Barber

Forte

Portis

MJD

Jacobs

C Johnson

Gore

Lynch

 
I would think Peterson would be the consensus #1 pick.Having said this, I think it's going to be a good year to have a low pick, lots of value if a guy like SJax drops to the late 1st/early 2nd round.
I'm pretty sure most people drafted SJax in the late 1st/early 2nd round this year and look what that got them.... He has value in the late 2nd round at best.
 
I wonder how high Westbrook would have been on peoples list before his Thanksgiving game. He has been pretty terrible all year. PetersonForteBarberTurner are my top 4
On a PPG basis, Westbrook is easily in the top 5. He has been the total opposite of terrible all year. He just missed a lot of time due to injury.
Weeks 9,10,11,12 he got the ball plenty and still didn't produce double digit points. Last year his first single digit scoring game was week 17. Perhaps terrible was a bad choice of words and maybe in PPR he'll still be top 10. But I doubt he's top 5 next year.
 
I would think Peterson would be the consensus #1 pick.Having said this, I think it's going to be a good year to have a low pick, lots of value if a guy like SJax drops to the late 1st/early 2nd round.
I'm pretty sure most people drafted SJax in the late 1st/early 2nd round this year and look what that got them.... He has value in the late 2nd round at best.
I have to interject with something here. I look at all these lists, and they all have 11-12 RBs in the first round projected for next year. The lists are fine, as that's almost guaranteed to be the way it'll look on everyone's cheat sheets next August. But every year, the first round is filled with RBs, and every year, 1/2 - 2/3 of them end up being busts. I understand VBD and agree with its principles to the fullest; what I don't agree with is everyone's confidence in our ability to accurately predict RB stats from year to year. It seems to me that there is a lot more reliability in predicting QB and WR stats.Granted, almost every year the top RB has the highest VBD number, and most of the top 15-20 spots are occupied by RBs. The problem is that outside of just a few, we don't have any idea who they will be. Who predicted all these rookies (Forte, Johnson, Slaton, etc.) to be in the top 10? Nobody. Meanwhile, guys who drafted Addai, S Jackson, Tomlinson, LJ, Grant, etc. feel like they got a bust. This happens every year, yet every year, we keep pick 10-11 RBs in the first round. It seems a little stubborn for us to assume that all these RBs are going to be the best players to take in the first round when we know half of them are going to be disastrous picks.If we get back to the fundamentals of VBD, we remember that in a 12-team league that starts 2 RBs and 3 WRs, that makes for 24 RBs and 36 WRs. Positional scarcity says that with just 32 starting RBs in the NFL compared to 64 starting WRs, RBs will be at a premium. (QB positional scarcity is even less of an issue). But with the way the league has changed in the past few years, we can't really look at just 32 starting RBs. So many teams use 2 RBs close to equally, that we're actually looking at about 45-50 viable options at RB, which makes for more opportunity, and also more variability. I think going after RBs so hard in the first round has become a little outdated with the way NFL teams have changed their usage of RBs.I'm not saying I have all the answers, but it would seem sensible to include the top 3-4 WRs and 1-2 QBs in the rankings for the first round picks. I look at my first round pick as my best chance to land a superstar, but at the same time it's the easiest place to fall behind your leaguemates if you make a bad pick. Going with a safe, proven producer, even at a different position (e.g., Fitzgerald next year) over a go-for-broke kind of RB (e.g., Jacobs next year) seems like a better plan to me.I can't make a post like this without putting up my own list to get picked at, so here goes (keeping to my above philosophy):1. Peterson2. Turner3. Barber4. Fitzgerald5. Moss6. Westbrook7. Brees8. Gore9. A Johnson10. Boldin11. Brady12. PortisFire away. :confused:
 
IMO Westbrook is being overrated in this thread.

First off, he has never played 16 games. Never. Now, it wasn't such a big deal the last two seasons, since he missed only one game each season, and still put up 1900+ total yards and 11-12 TDs... but he's not going to come too close to that yardage this year, barring an amazing finish. His TDs look great, but he has 11 of them in 4 games and only 1 in the other 6 games. I get the whole PPG thing, and that's all well and good, but if you are picking in the top 3 picks and your guy is fairly guaranteed to miss games, while I agree you can plug in a backup, it still hurts, and it has to be a consideration.

And is his yardage down because of injuries or because of decline? Neither is good. If it's injuries, that may indicate that his previous two 15 game seasons were the peak for him in terms of staying healthy... And he will be 30 at the start of next season, so his performance is likely to decline soon anyway... has it already started? It seems fairly likely that 2007 was his peak, and he won't repeat that kind of season again. Doesn't he need that kind of season to justify a top 3 pick?

On top of all that, how will he be affected by possible changes with the Eagles? Will Reid remain? Will McNabb remain?

I should note that I do not play in PPR leagues, though I think I'd feel similarly if I did.

 
I would think Peterson would be the consensus #1 pick.Having said this, I think it's going to be a good year to have a low pick, lots of value if a guy like SJax drops to the late 1st/early 2nd round.
I'm pretty sure most people drafted SJax in the late 1st/early 2nd round this year and look what that got them.... He has value in the late 2nd round at best.
I can't make a post like this without putting up my own list to get picked at, so here goes (keeping to my above philosophy):1. Peterson2. Turner3. Barber4. Fitzgerald5. Moss6. Westbrook7. Brees8. Gore9. A Johnson10. Boldin11. Brady12. PortisFire away. :goodposting:
Definitely appreciate your perspective, mixing in WR's and QB's in the 1st rd. But I guess it depends on everyone's individual league scoring. That said, no way do I take a WR top 4, let alone top 8. Can't think of a league that would have a first round with only 6 rbs either. To not see Forte or Chris Johnson in the first round is scary. And Brady in the 1st rd? His rehab is very far behind and is yet to be determined if he needs more surgery due to the infection he got. The Pats may have to franchise Cassel because of their uncertainty with Brady's status for next year.
 
I would think Peterson would be the consensus #1 pick.Having said this, I think it's going to be a good year to have a low pick, lots of value if a guy like SJax drops to the late 1st/early 2nd round.
I'm pretty sure most people drafted SJax in the late 1st/early 2nd round this year and look what that got them.... He has value in the late 2nd round at best.
I have to interject with something here. I look at all these lists, and they all have 11-12 RBs in the first round projected for next year. The lists are fine, as that's almost guaranteed to be the way it'll look on everyone's cheat sheets next August. But every year, the first round is filled with RBs, and every year, 1/2 - 2/3 of them end up being busts. I understand VBD and agree with its principles to the fullest; what I don't agree with is everyone's confidence in our ability to accurately predict RB stats from year to year. It seems to me that there is a lot more reliability in predicting QB and WR stats.Granted, almost every year the top RB has the highest VBD number, and most of the top 15-20 spots are occupied by RBs. The problem is that outside of just a few, we don't have any idea who they will be. Who predicted all these rookies (Forte, Johnson, Slaton, etc.) to be in the top 10? Nobody. Meanwhile, guys who drafted Addai, S Jackson, Tomlinson, LJ, Grant, etc. feel like they got a bust. This happens every year, yet every year, we keep pick 10-11 RBs in the first round. It seems a little stubborn for us to assume that all these RBs are going to be the best players to take in the first round when we know half of them are going to be disastrous picks.If we get back to the fundamentals of VBD, we remember that in a 12-team league that starts 2 RBs and 3 WRs, that makes for 24 RBs and 36 WRs. Positional scarcity says that with just 32 starting RBs in the NFL compared to 64 starting WRs, RBs will be at a premium. (QB positional scarcity is even less of an issue). But with the way the league has changed in the past few years, we can't really look at just 32 starting RBs. So many teams use 2 RBs close to equally, that we're actually looking at about 45-50 viable options at RB, which makes for more opportunity, and also more variability. I think going after RBs so hard in the first round has become a little outdated with the way NFL teams have changed their usage of RBs.I'm not saying I have all the answers, but it would seem sensible to include the top 3-4 WRs and 1-2 QBs in the rankings for the first round picks. I look at my first round pick as my best chance to land a superstar, but at the same time it's the easiest place to fall behind your leaguemates if you make a bad pick. Going with a safe, proven producer, even at a different position (e.g., Fitzgerald next year) over a go-for-broke kind of RB (e.g., Jacobs next year) seems like a better plan to me.I can't make a post like this without putting up my own list to get picked at, so here goes (keeping to my above philosophy):1. Peterson2. Turner3. Barber4. Fitzgerald5. Moss6. Westbrook7. Brees8. Gore9. A Johnson10. Boldin11. Brady12. PortisFire away. :lmao:
In my opinion, Andre Johnson is probably the best WR out there right now. Wish I had him on my team right now. Wish I was in the playoffs right now. Wish I had a beer right now. :confused:
 
I wonder how high Westbrook would have been on peoples list before his Thanksgiving game. He has been pretty terrible all year. PetersonForteBarberTurner are my top 4
this is about how i have it with maybe MJD sneaking in if FTaylor is elsewherethis thread is frustrating because i have Forte/Turner/Barber in 2008 which is everyone's consensus top 5 next year it seems yet i have to win this coming week and have help to make playoffs hehemaybe it is turning into a QB/WR game
 
01. Adrian Peterson

02. Matt Forte

03. Michael Turner

04. Marion Barber III

05. Clinton Portis

06. Brandon Jacobs

07. Andre Johnson

08. Chris Johnson

09. Frank Gore

10. Steven Jackson

11. DeAngelo Williams

12. Maurice Jones-Drew

 
1. Forte2. ADP3. Bush4. Portis5. MBIII6. CJ37. LJ8. Westy9. Jacobs10. Slaton
I'm amazed at the lack of love that Frank Gore gets. The guy is his team's entire offense. He's as consistent as they come. In 2006 he finished as RB5. In 2007 he finished as RB7 and this year he is currently ranked as RB5. Give me the guy who is not in a RBBC and will get every conceivable carry for his team, whether it's at the goalline or at his own 20. And for all the worry about his knees, the guy has missed one game in 3 years.For most of you guys that are ranking him in the bottom half of round one and, like this guy, not even in the first round....it looks like I'll be able to steal Gore again next year around the 8th pick.I can only laugh at people ranking Forte, CJ3, Jacobs, and Slaton above him. Let these guys do it for more than one year before you pass on a bonafide stud for the flavor of the week.
 
1. Forte2. ADP3. Bush4. Portis5. MBIII6. CJ37. LJ8. Westy9. Jacobs10. Slaton
I'm amazed at the lack of love that Frank Gore gets. The guy is his team's entire offense. He's as consistent as they come. In 2006 he finished as RB5. In 2007 he finished as RB7 and this year he is currently ranked as RB5. Give me the guy who is not in a RBBC and will get every conceivable carry for his team, whether it's at the goalline or at his own 20. And for all the worry about his knees, the guy has missed one game in 3 years.For most of you guys that are ranking him in the bottom half of round one and, like this guy, not even in the first round....it looks like I'll be able to steal Gore again next year around the 8th pick.I can only laugh at people ranking Forte, CJ3, Jacobs, and Slaton above him. Let these guys do it for more than one year before you pass on a bonafide stud for the flavor of the week.
I agree with you. I have him currently ranked 7. The knees do concern me a bit going into next year. SF needs some major changes on offense for Gore to remain effective. I understand he's missed 1 game in three years, but he has yet to be a top 3 rb in any year. And sometimes you just have to go with the eye test...and let me tell you...What I have seen from Forte and CJ3 is top 3 rb stuff.
 
Does it seem like there are a bunch of great RBs to choose from in the first 2 rounds this year? look at all these guys, some might even fall to round 3.

1. ADP

2. Westy

3. Turner

4. MB III

5. CJ3

6 MJD

7. Gore

8. Forte

9. Brown

10. Jacobs

11. LT2

12. Portis

TJones, Bush, Lynch, DWilliams, SJAX, Addai, Slaton

You still have QBs like Brees and Brady and WRs like the Arizona boys, AJ, Roddy, Jennings. Seems to me like a pretty deep RB year in 2009, perhaps with less expected consistency at WR. Guys like Owens, Moss, Wayne, TJ, BEdwards have been hugely inconsistent this year and might have a large variation next year as far as where they are drafted.

 
IMO Westbrook is being overrated in this thread.First off, he has never played 16 games. Never. Now, it wasn't such a big deal the last two seasons, since he missed only one game each season, and still put up 1900+ total yards and 11-12 TDs... but he's not going to come too close to that yardage this year, barring an amazing finish. His TDs look great, but he has 11 of them in 4 games and only 1 in the other 6 games. I get the whole PPG thing, and that's all well and good, but if you are picking in the top 3 picks and your guy is fairly guaranteed to miss games, while I agree you can plug in a backup, it still hurts, and it has to be a consideration.And is his yardage down because of injuries or because of decline? Neither is good. If it's injuries, that may indicate that his previous two 15 game seasons were the peak for him in terms of staying healthy... And he will be 30 at the start of next season, so his performance is likely to decline soon anyway... has it already started? It seems fairly likely that 2007 was his peak, and he won't repeat that kind of season again. Doesn't he need that kind of season to justify a top 3 pick?On top of all that, how will he be affected by possible changes with the Eagles? Will Reid remain? Will McNabb remain?I should note that I do not play in PPR leagues, though I think I'd feel similarly if I did.
Healthy Westy = Stud
 
turner #1 next year. That O is going to be ELECTRIC...

ADP can be argued for, and will prolly go #1 in more leagues than not, but I really like what Turner will bring to the table next year. Also love love love reggie bush, PPR or NOT! Top 5 easy for me, and am hoping his adp is late 1st early 2nd so I can grab him everywhere and anywhere...

 
the 2008 first round ADP from MFL for 12-team redraft PPR leagues

1. 1.01 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

2. 1.02 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

3. 1.03 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

4. 1.04 Addai, Joseph IND RB

5. 1.05 Jackson, Steven STL RB

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB

7. 1.07 Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. 1.08 Moss, Randy NEP WR

9. 1.09 Gore, Frank SFO RB

10. 1.10 Portis, Clinton WAS RB

11. 1.11 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

12. 1.12 Owens, Terrell DAL WR

busts in red, players missing at least 3 games are italicized

i define a first round bust as someone who does not perform within 4-6 spots at his respective selected position. thus, Gore is not a bust while LT is. doesn't mean you don't start him, he just busted with respect to expected value.

the reason i include this is because a 50% first round bust rate is standard year to year

 
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I would think Peterson would be the consensus #1 pick.Having said this, I think it's going to be a good year to have a low pick, lots of value if a guy like SJax drops to the late 1st/early 2nd round.
I'm pretty sure most people drafted SJax in the late 1st/early 2nd round this year and look what that got them.... He has value in the late 2nd round at best.
Do you use this logic every year?
 
the 2008 first round ADP from MFL for 12-team redraft PPR leagues

1. 1.01 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

2. 1.02 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

3. 1.03 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

4. 1.04 Addai, Joseph IND RB

5. 1.05 Jackson, Steven STL RB

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB

7. 1.07 Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. 1.08 Moss, Randy NEP WR

9. 1.09 Gore, Frank SFO RB

10. 1.10 Portis, Clinton WAS RB

11. 1.11 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

12. 1.12 Owens, Terrell DAL WR

busts in red, players missing at least 3 games are italicized

i define a first round bust as someone who does not perform within 4-6 spots at his respective selected position. thus, Gore is not a bust while LT is. doesn't mean you don't start him, he just busted with respect to expected value.

the reason i include this is because a 50% first round bust rate is standard year to year
LT is #8 in my league's scoring format, and a hop skip and a jump away from #6. Moss is 6 and a hop skip and a jump away from being 3. Nothing to do with the topic at hand, I just had a hard time understanding your analysis, and needed to point these two discrepancies out...
 
the 2008 first round ADP from MFL for 12-team redraft PPR leagues

1. 1.01 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB

2. 1.02 Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

3. 1.03 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB

4. 1.04 Addai, Joseph IND RB

5. 1.05 Jackson, Steven STL RB

6. 1.06 Brady, Tom NEP QB

7. 1.07 Barber, Marion DAL RB

8. 1.08 Moss, Randy NEP WR

9. 1.09 Gore, Frank SFO RB

10. 1.10 Portis, Clinton WAS RB

11. 1.11 Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB

12. 1.12 Owens, Terrell DAL WR

busts in red, players missing at least 3 games are italicized

i define a first round bust as someone who does not perform within 4-6 spots at his respective selected position. thus, Gore is not a bust while LT is. doesn't mean you don't start him, he just busted with respect to expected value.
:( PPR - Lynch is 9th

Non PPR - 14th

Oh and LT

PPR - 4th

Non PPR - 9th

And your definition of bust is just awful anyway. Yeah, I'm really at the same level of disappointment had I taken Steven Jackson or Addai (ranked 20 and 27) against either of those two. :rolleyes:

EDIT: Guy above me also got the Moss thing. He's ranked 8th and 9th respectively.

If we're going purely by year-end numbers, your analysis is FlaVVed.

 
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