NOT streaming defenses! (1 Viewer)

[shadrap]

I snagged Denver in a few leagues last year & didn't have to take another look.  The usual suspects are up there as far as ADP.  Denver, Seattle, KC, Houston, Vikes.  Any sneaky ones out there you would feel comfortable with for the whole season?  Phili & Arizona come to mind for me.

 

[Ilov80s]

I snagged Denver in a few leagues last year & didn't have to take another look.  The usual suspects are up there as far as ADP.  Denver, Seattle, KC, Houston, Vikes.  Any sneaky ones out there you would feel comfortable with for the whole season?  Phili & Arizona come to mind for me.

KC is at New England week 1. Not sure I want to start off that way.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Honestly, I've never really cared enough to pay attention that much.  I'm getting a top 12 defense regardless and if they suck I'll just pick up a defense with a good match up that week.  Never really stressed that much over it.

 

[Anarchy99]

I am not sure PHI or ARI would be considered "sneaky," (unless those were suggestions to consider and not meant to be in the "sneaky" category). Both were Top 5 fantasy defenses last year.

 

[abbottjamesr]

I'm either going to reach for Denver, KC, or Seattle in the 11th or I'll take the Bills or Steelers with my second to last pick probably the later.

 

[Faust]

If you are inclined to draft a few defensive units that should be solid plays all season long, may I suggest the Patriots (five games against the Jets, the Bills and the Dolphins in weeks 1-16) and the young and improving Atlanta Falcons defense.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

If you are inclined to draft a few defensive units that should be solid plays all season long, may I suggest the Patriots (five games against the Jets, the Bills and the Dolphins in weeks 1-16) and the young and improving Atlanta Falcons defense.

I went Pats, as much as i hate them, 5-6 cake match ups... 

 

[zftcg]

Having owned Philly for most of last year, I'm surprised to hear they were Top 5. Never felt like that. They became unstartable by the end of the year. But I like them a lot this year. Schwartz is a great DC, and last year's weak point (DB) has been addressed.

Other one to consider is Rams. Phillips always has his biggest impact in his first year as DC, and they obviously have the talent. Fact that they're so unsexy means they might slip under the radar.

 

[Hawkeye21]

Having owned Philly for most of last year, I'm surprised to hear they were Top 5. Never felt like that. They became unstartable by the end of the year. But I like them a lot this year. Schwartz is a great DC, and last year's weak point (DB) has been addressed.

Other one to consider is Rams. Phillips always has his biggest impact in his first year as DC, and they obviously have the talent. Fact that they're so unsexy means they might slip under the radar.

They finished 6th in my league last year.  I checked out their weekly scoring and saw that the first half of the season was great then had 6 terrible weeks during a rough part of their schedule.  They were pretty good during the playoffs though.

 

[Mavis]

Arizonas Schedule, with the playoffs bolded...

Some games are tough like Dallas, but thats at home without Zeke. Indy will be without Luck, Detroit is Detroit and the game they play Seattle in Seattle is week 17. TB is in Arizona and so is Ten and G-men in the playoffs. I quietly took them where I could.

@DET

@IND

DAL

SF

@PHI

TB

LAR

BYE

@SF

SEA

@HOU

JAX

LAR

TEN

@WAS

NYG

@SEA

 

[zftcg]

They finished 6th in my league last year.  I checked out their weekly scoring and saw that the first half of the season was great then had 6 terrible weeks during a rough part of their schedule.  They were pretty good during the playoffs though.

Yes, that tracks with my memory. I picked them back up (but didn't start them) in my championship Week 16, when they picked off Eli a bunch of times.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I like Seattle after week1...dont really want to start then at greenbay

 

[zftcg]

Arizonas Schedule, with the playoffs bolded...

Some games are tough like Dallas, but thats at home without Zeke. Indy will be without Luck, Detroit is Detroit and the game they play Seattle in Seattle is week 17. TB is in Arizona and so is Ten and G-men in the playoffs. I quietly took them where I could.

@DET

@IND

DAL

SF

@PHI

TB

LAR

BYE

@SF

SEA

@HOU

JAX

LAR

TEN

@WAS

NYG

@SEA

I think picking based on SoS in the pre-season is a mug's game. It's unlikely all the matchups will be the same as they were last year, and unless they turn out to be a great D a la Denver '15, you probably won't own them all season anyway. (And if they are Denver '15, you'll be starting them regardless of matchup).

 

[The Hank]

Honestly, I've never really cared enough to pay attention that much.  I'm getting a top 12 defense regardless and if they suck I'll just pick up a defense with a good match up that week.  Never really stressed that much over it.

This is the strategy to go w/ in my opinion - always a D/ST that pops up out of the blue and put up top 5 #'s.

 

[Mavis]

I think picking based on SoS in the pre-season is a mug's game. It's unlikely all the matchups will be the same as they were last year, and unless they turn out to be a great D a la Denver '15, you probably won't own them all season anyway. (And if they are Denver '15, you'll be starting them regardless of matchup).

Then I'll cut them...its just a defense. What else you gonna pick based off of, their team colors? A mugs game, eh?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Giants, Steelers, Chargers, Bears, Titans, Browns, Lions, Saints will outperform their 3 year averages.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Jacksonv....NO. Stop it!

Move along.

 

[zftcg]

Then I'll cut them...its just a defense. What else you gonna pick based off of, their team colors? A mugs game, eh?

You can do whatever you want. Here's what I've found has the most predictive power:

1. Historical performance -- though I mostly ignore this one, since the highest profile Ds generally get drafted way in advance of when I would want to take them.
   
2. Breakout potential -- new defensive coordinator with strong track record, guys returning from injury, etc. This is really difficult, but it's my favorite because if you do it right you can luck into a top D without having to waste a 7th-round pick
   
3. Week 1 matchup -- if there's no one left with breakout potential, I fall back on streaming right out of the gate
   

Don't get me wrong, all of these have a high probability of error. Short of kickers, DST has more randomness than any position in fantasy. But I can't think of any criteria beyond those three that isn't a total dart throw.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Steelers early schedule

 

[need2know]

Steelers early schedule

This.  Got em with the final pick of my big draft.  Love it

 

[Mavis]

You can do whatever you want. Here's what I've found has the most predictive power:

1. Historical performance -- though I mostly ignore this one, since the highest profile Ds generally get drafted way in advance of when I would want to take them.
   
2. Breakout potential -- new defensive coordinator with strong track record, guys returning from injury, etc. This is really difficult, but it's my favorite because if you do it right you can luck into a top D without having to waste a 7th-round pick
   
3. Week 1 matchup -- if there's no one left with breakout potential, I fall back on streaming right out of the gate
   

Don't get me wrong, all of these have a high probability of error. Short of kickers, DST has more randomness than any position in fantasy. But I can't think of any criteria beyond those three that isn't a total dart throw.

1) Arizona is historically good on Defense.

2) With Honey Badger and Peterson breakout is their middle name. (I got Arizona in round 12)

3) They play Detroit...the Detroit "Always providing my opponents defenses with opportunities" Lions.

Thanks for validating Arizona is a Defense not to stream this year, again...this isnt about Streaming defenses this is about NOT streaming defenses.

 

[Tool]

You can do whatever you want. Here's what I've found has the most predictive power:

1. Historical performance -- though I mostly ignore this one, since the highest profile Ds generally get drafted way in advance of when I would want to take them.
   
2. Breakout potential -- new defensive coordinator with strong track record, guys returning from injury, etc. This is really difficult, but it's my favorite because if you do it right you can luck into a top D without having to waste a 7th-round pick
   
3. Week 1 matchup -- if there's no one left with breakout potential, I fall back on streaming right out of the gate
   

Don't get me wrong, all of these have a high probability of error. Short of kickers, DST has more randomness than any position in fantasy. But I can't think of any criteria beyond those three that isn't a total dart throw.

Great, so who do you like? -ignoring point 3 since this is not about streaming defenses

 

[zftcg]

Great, so who do you like? -ignoring point 3 since this is not about streaming defenses

I posted upthread that I like Philly and Rams based on their DCs. I do think this could be the year where Jax finally makes the leap -- both Ramsey and Campbell are among the best in the league at their positions -- but they always get way too much buzz, so I doubt they're available late.

 

[zftcg]

1) Arizona is historically good on Defense.

2) With Honey Badger and Peterson breakout is their middle name. (I got Arizona in round 12)

3) They play Detroit...the Detroit "Always providing my opponents defenses with opportunities" Lions.

Thanks for validating Arizona is a Defense not to stream this year, again...this isnt about Streaming defenses this is about NOT streaming defenses.

Yeah, I don't think Arizona is a bad option, especially if Honey Badger is back to full health (although I think the loss of Campbell could have a big impact). My point was just that their season-long SoS should be given the same weight as, well, the color of their jerseys.

 

[Mavis]

I posted upthread that I like Philly and Rams based on their DCs. I do think this could be the year where Jax finally makes the leap -- both Ramsey and Campbell are among the best in the league at their positions -- but they always get way too much buzz, so I doubt they're available late.

According to your 3 reasons, historically Philly has not been a defense that always performs, they did well last year, but historically?

Breakout potential? They were Top 5 in my league last year, so they have that pop.

Week 1 opponent? I think on the road in Washington to start the season is no bueno.

They do always get too much buzz, most times never live up to it. 

Schedule is meh too, on the road against Seattle in a division with NY and Dallas? Take em. 

 

[Mavis]

Yeah, I don't think Arizona is a bad option, especially if Honey Badger is back to full health (although I think the loss of Campbell could have a big impact). My point was just that their season-long SoS should be given the same weight as, well, the color of their jerseys.

I disagree, one matters and is relevant to performance, the other doesn't. You are trying to say in a game of predictions we cant predict who has the better schedule? We can reasonably assume that SF is not great, we can assume teams like Cleveland, Buffalo, NY Jets and Jacksonville wont be great. Color of jerseys have nothing to do with performance, schedule does.

 

[zftcg]

According to your 3 reasons, historically Philly has not been a defense that always performs, they did well last year, but historically?

Breakout potential? They were Top 5 in my league last year, so they have that pop.

Week 1 opponent? I think on the road in Washington to start the season is no bueno.

They do always get too much buzz, most times never live up to it. 

Schedule is meh too, on the road against Seattle in a division with NY and Dallas? Take em. 

They finished well overall last year, but over the back half of the season they were mostly unstartable.

When I say "buzz", I specifically mean, "Will they be available in the next-to-last round?" I suspect Philly probably will.

The Week 1 matchup doesn't look good on paper (although I have this sneaking suspicion Washington has train-wreck potential this year), but if you're betting on a breakout D, you're betting on a unit that can transcend bad matchups.

But overall, it's mostly just a bet on Schwartz. The guy has a pretty strong track record of producing quality Ds as coordinator (though not as HC)

 

[steelers1080]

I picked up Jacksonville, then dropped them, then picked them up again. I just can't make up my mind.  They've looked so bad thus far in the preseason, but they're not playing all their starters yet (top 2 CBs sat). Still, can't decide if they'll be any good or not.