Official #3 Pick Strategy Discussion (Redraft, PPR, 12 Teams) (1 Viewer)

[kyoun1e]

Figure I'd start a thread for those with the #3 pick to discuss strategies, opportunities, and risks.

Some observations/Comments:

* Landing the #3 has to get you excited in round 1. You're most likely guaranteed one of the two top WRs (CD or Hill) or could take a swing at a bell cow in B. Hall in what should be a much improved Jets offense (with a defense that should provide the offense more possessions). Great.

* 2/3 Turn: There just seems to be a dead zone at the WR and RB positions that have me hating these two rounds. You're probably going to miss out on the top RBs available (J. Gibbs, K. Williams, Pacheco, D. Henry) and what I see at WR is uninspiring as potential round 2 picks - Pittman (low volume), Olave (mediocre offense), D. Adams (age, mediocre offense), D. London (is he really going to reach his ceiling), M. Harrison (taking a rookie in round 2 doesn't feel right). Feel like I'm reaching a bit for D. Achane here and J. Cook and while Kelce and LaPorta are sitting there at TE, I feel like I"m chasing performance from last year when this year's TE depth seems deep.

* 4/5 Turn: Hard to resist the first tier of QBs here: Hurts, Allen, Mahommes, L. Jackson could all be had. Wouldn't mind for a K. Murray later and potentially D. Smith, D. Samuel, M. Nabers. Starting to hit the RB dead zone here too with R. Stevenson/A. Jones/Kamara/R. White/K. Walker...and I have no interest. Definitely a spot to take a TE with McBride/Kincaid/and maybe Andrews around and there seems to be some upside WRs here in Pickens/Flowers/Dell.

* 6/7 Turn: Have targeted J. Conner or D. Montgomery here at RB and C. Kirk, D. Johnson, and J. Reed at WR, but if I fail to secure a QB in round 4 or decide to wait, I'm thinking hard about K. Murray with his new toy M. Harrison, another year removed from injury, and a lousy D that should keep him throwing and scrambling.

* 8/9 Turn: More RB / WR depth here for sure. If I take a plunge with Achane early I'm definitely eye balling Mostert here. I also like the upside of M. Brown in KC and JSN in Seattle with an aging Lockett. And if I miss out on TEs in round 5, hard to turn down Njoku.

* 10/11 Turn & Beyond: Looking for my favorite split backfield RBs (C. Brown, Dowdle, etc), would love to grab C. Samuel this late, maybe take a swing at one of the rookie QBs to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. Shooting for upside WRs (D. Wicks), and then looking for defenses who have great matchups the first 4 weeks of the season (NYJ, CINC, SEA).

Anyways, hope this helps those who are mulling options at #3. Curious to hear other thoughts and especially how managers are navigating the conundrum at the 2/3 turn.

Thanks!

 

[titusbramble]

Have drawn the #3 in this exact format, and my main thought is who will follow on from Kupp and Jefferson as the main receiver in the team name of two girls one (WR name), just hope I don't end up in a spot where CMC is available

 

[Deamon]

Have drawn the #3 in this exact format, and my main thought is who will follow on from Kupp and Jefferson as the main receiver in the team name of two girls one (WR name), just hope I don't end up in a spot where CMC is available

you won't.

 

[kyoun1e]

Have drawn the #3 in this exact format, and my main thought is who will follow on from Kupp and Jefferson as the main receiver in the team name of two girls one (WR name), just hope I don't end up in a spot where CMC is available

If he dropped to #3 I'd be compelled to take him. In fact, the owner of the #1 pick has already indicated that he's willing to trade it away.

At any rate, thinking it comes down to CD, T. Hill, or B. Hall at 3. Leaning WR in round 1 because I hate all the WRs available in round 2. I feel like the entire lot doesn't deserve their ADPs.

 

[kyoun1e]

Welp, just did a mock and think I've landed on a decent strategy. The lychpins are waiting on a QB a bit and avoiding all the big guns available in round 4 and targeting K. Murray or J. Love late. Like their upside. In addition, the other lychpin is bypassing the TE tier of T. McBride/Kincaid and waiting for Njoku or Fergasun. I like what I landed on.

* QB: K. Murray
* RB: D. Henry, J. Cook, N. Harris, C. Brown, (T. Allgiere, R. Dowdle, J. McGlaughlin, C. Hubbard).
* WR: CD Lamb, C. Kupp, M. Nabers, JSN
* TE: J. Fergasun (just missed out on Njoku)
* D: Cinci (faces NE week 1)
* K: Prater

Yes I go RB heavy despite PPR. This strategy has constantly yielded great results year after year as I tend to be the guy finding the RB lottery tickets. I'd rather have those RBs vs waka mole WRs that I end up picking up and dropping constantly.

I'd be happy with this.

Now going to try something similar but start with the RB (Hall or Bijan) first and see how it pans out.

 

[kyoun1e]

Did another mock. This time going RB-RB with B. Hall and then J. Cook. Not loving my WRs though:

J. Waddle
M. Nabers
G. Pickens
M. Brown
C. Samuel

Not bad, but no true #1.

Waddle could emerge after being banged up last year. Nabers could be an alpha dog but Daniel Jones scares me...could be volatile especially early. Pickens SHOULD take a step up assuming Aiyuk doesn't land in PIT.

Also, I keep missing on Njoku later and also Fergasun at TE. There is risk with this strategy of going later QB/TE that I end up punting the TE position. Getting some late TE targets lined up like Fiermuth/Goedert/T. Hill/J. Smith.

 

[kyoun1e]

Welp, I've done a few mocks and I'll be damned if I can decide if I want to go RB or WR to start at #3 in a 12 team PPR.

Consensus has most going with either CD Lamb or T. Hill, but it's oh so nice to secure either B. Hall or Bijan and go hero RB.

I'm typically finding that I'm starting with the following types of rosters going WR first or RB first:

WR First:

1.3: CD Lamb (WR)
2.11: J. Cook (RB)
3.3: D. Achane (RB)
4.11: C. Kupp or Deebo (WR2)
5.3: T. Dell (WR3)
6.11: K. Murray (QB1)
7:3: D. Njoku (TE1)

* Remaining rounds usually grab a WR 4 and 5, bulk up on lotto RBs and a D with a good week 1 matchup.

RB First:

1.3: B. Hall (RB1
2.11: J. Cook (RB2)
3.3: N. Collins (WR1)
4.11: C. Kupp or Deebo (WR2)
5.3: M. Nabers (WR3)
6.11: K. Murray (QB1)
7:3: D. Njoku (TE1)

* Ditto the above on filling out the roster.

Think my biggest problem with either path is that I HATE all the WRs in round 2. Don't feel any are worthy. I'm almost always starring at a RB there. Usually it's J. Cook (unless D. Henry or Pacheco fall to me...and they are usually swiped the pick prior).

If I could warm up to my WR1 being Nico (and not CD or Tyreek) or similar I think I could roll with a B. Hall/J. Cook one two punch at RB and then wait on the position until round 8 and beyond. While I'm missing out on the stud WR in round 1, there seems to be an abundance of solid 1a types in rounds 3 through 5.

One thing I'm certain of: I'm waiting on QB until at least Murray and TE until the Njoku/Fergasun area.

Anyway, I hope this helps others. I'm sure there will be new developments/injuries that adjust the thought process.

 

[kyoun1e]

Mocking a new angle: Hero RB at 3 with early QB and TE. I forgot I did this last year in one league and it led me to a championship. This strategy's success is highly dependent on landing the lotto ticket RBs in the 2nd half of the draft. It's also key to land on your #3 WR before the talent dries up.

Initial result:

* QB: L. Jackson (or A. Richardson), round 4.
* RB: B. Hall (1), B. Robinson (6), C. Brown (9), J. Ford (8) (R. Dowdle, T. Chandler, C. Hubbard...rounds 11-13)
* WR: N. Collins (2), J. Waddle (3), R. Rice (7), D. Wicks (14)
* TE: T. McBride (5)
* D: NYJ, SEA
* K: T. Bass

What I like:

- Pretty much guaranteed a running QB in the 4th. One of L. Jackson, Hurts, ARich, J. Allen, Mahommes there.
- At TE, usually have either M. Andrews, D. Kincaid, or T. McBride there in the 5th. Think this 2nd tier is the sweet spot.
- Have a ton of zero RBs that could emerge and at least hold down the fort when the matchup is right early in the season like J. Ford and Chubba.

What I don't like:

- Don't love that B. Robinson is my #2 RB although it seems like the industry is high on him this year.
- Round 2 I feel like I'm reaching for Nico...again because I HATE all the WRs in round 2 who usually go there. I just can't pull the trigger on say, D. London. All that said, I like having a piece of the HOU passing game.
- Ditto Waddle in round 3.

May try this starting with WR, but have a feeling my RB corp would really look like crud. We'll see.

 

[kyoun1e]

Most recent thoughts picking from the #3 hole:

* Round 1: Pretty much set on RB here. Too hard to pass up one of CMC, B. Hall, or Bijan. CMC has been dropping to me which is a little scary, but as long as I pick up J. Mason later I'd take him. B. Hall and Bijan have ceilings that are through the roof. There's a lot of WR depth later.

* 2/3 Turn: Doubling up on WRs here if RB in the first. Having a hard time with the WRs left at the end of round 2. Keep reaching a bit for Nico Collins and then hoping C. Kupp is still hanging around early in round 3.

* 4/5 Turn: Want one of the 2nd tier TEs. M. Andrews/T. McBride/D. Kincaid. Think they all have TE1 upside. Would love to find my RB2 here. K. Walker sometimes dropping and if not, I'm always going after J. Conner in round 5. Figure if I grab him and make sure to get T. Benson I'm all set.

At this point I've got 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and my TE.

* 6/7 Turn: This is where I"m targeting QB. K. Murray. If that fails I'll wait for J. Love or J. Daniels. Then it's best available RB or WR. I should go WR here and there are many to choose from (R. Rice, D. Johnson, C. Kirk, T. McLaurin). N. Harris is often still here and with J. Warren with a hammy this could be too irresistable in an A. Smith offense.

* #3 WR: Need one if didn't go WR previously. If JSN is still hanging around i'm hitting the draft button. X. Worthy or B. Thomas also options.

* D Strategy: I want the NYJs early. Outside of SF in week 1, weeks 2-4 look sweet. I want to win September. I'm going to hopefully pair the NJY with Cinci or SEA who have cupcake matchups in week 1.

* Late Rounds: Pounding for lotto ticket RBs and handcuffs. R. Dowdle, C. Hubbard, T. Chandler on the list. J. Ford. Also love getting D. Wicks at WR for GB....seems like a crapshoot who ends up with the ball there. Would rather wait for Wicks vs. choose Watson/J. Reed incorrectly and early.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Just found out that I'm in the 3-hole in my main money league, although the parameters are slightly different than the ones in the thread title: 14-team, non-PPR, start 3 WRs (technically, a WR/TE flex, but it almost never makes sense to start a second TE).

I'm still deciding whether I want to go with one of the Big 3 RBs in the first round or WR (if Tyreek falls to me; not sure I'd feel comfortable going with CeeDee after he sat out all of training camp). It's interesting because it's non-PPR, which suggests RBs should go higher, but it's also 3 WRs, which puts them at more of a premium.

If I take a RB in the first and then want to go WR, I'm looking at the likes of Evans, Nico, Olave or Aiyuk as my WR1. Reverse that, and I'm looking at Achane, Jacobs and Walker as my RB1.

So I guess it comes down to Hall/Nico or Hill/Jacobs. I think I lean toward the former, but fortunately I have a couple more days to think about it

 

[kyoun1e]

Just found out that I'm in the 3-hole in my main money league, although the parameters are slightly different than the ones in the thread title: 14-team, non-PPR, start 3 WRs (technically, a WR/TE flex, but it almost never makes sense to start a second TE).

I'm still deciding whether I want to go with one of the Big 3 RBs in the first round or WR (if Tyreek falls to me; not sure I'd feel comfortable going with CeeDee after he sat out all of training camp). It's interesting because it's non-PPR, which suggests RBs should go higher, but it's also 3 WRs, which puts them at more of a premium.

If I take a RB in the first and then want to go WR, I'm looking at the likes of Evans, Nico, Olave or Aiyuk as my WR1. Reverse that, and I'm looking at Achane, Jacobs and Walker as my RB1.

So I guess it comes down to Hall/Nico or Hill/Jacobs. I think I lean toward the former, but fortunately I have a couple more days to think about it

Right now I'm all in on B. Hall and a Nico combo.

And then if I'm lucky I can grab C. Kupp at a ridiculous value due to ESPNs ridiculous rankings.