OBP leagues over/under valued (1 Viewer)

[Michael Brown]

Been kind of absent from this forum most of the offseason, but getting into gear for drafts now. I'm only doing 3 maybe 4 leagues this year, but two of them are OBP-based rather than BA-based. I could certainly look up the raw stats from last year, but they don't always tell the entire story of which players gain or lose value in a setup like this over a several year arc. For instance, I was shocked to see that Chris Carter had an OBP of .312 on the strength of 61 walks. That's actually tolerable for a guy who can easily hit 35 HR.

So I wondered if there were any thoughts on guys like that - players you would be all over in an OBP league that you wouldn't touch in a BA league, or on the flip side the guys who typically have a nice BA but walk so rarely that it really hammers their OBP value (thinking guys like Ben Revere, Adam Jones, etc). Think we can get a good list going.

 

[Eephus]

I'm expecting a bounce back season from Adam Dunn

 

[Eephus]

Joc Pederson and Domingo Santana are new guys who get a bump in OBP leagues.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Carlos Santana obviously.  Also like Souza quite a bit, who was a plus offensive player last year despite a 35% K rate and .225 average, thanks in large part to an 11% walk rate.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I'm expecting a bounce back season from Adam Dunn

 

[Spartans Rule]

Lucas Duda is a guy who gets a big boost. A total liability in average, but actually an asset in OBP. When I was playing around with a spreadsheet for PieLeeg last year I was surprised how much his value went up.

Dee Gordon has the Ichiro effect - you don't really think about OBP negatively affecting him, because .359 is still a really good OBP, but it doesn't carry you in a category like a .333 batting average. Obviously still good in an OBP league but probably not worth the 2nd round ADP.

 

[Eephus]

OBP notwithstanding, Gordon gets most of his value from SBs which were down across the board in 2015.


YEAR


SB


CS


TOT


SB%


2015


2505


1064


3569


70.2%


2014


2764


1035


3799


72.8%


2013


2693


1007


3700


72.8%


2012


3229


1136


4365


74.0%


2011


3279


1261


4540


72.2%

There were nearly twice as many HRs hit vs. SBs last year.  The marginal value of SB hasn't been this high since the steroid era.

 

[RnR]

Carlos Santana obviously.  Also like Souza quite a bit, who was a plus offensive player last year despite a 35% K rate and .225 average, thanks in large part to an 11% walk rate.

Should rake in Durham.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Should rake in Durham.

fight me

 

[RnR]

fight me

Let's beat the #### out of helltoupee instead and call it a day.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I've heard that Kenny said that his son Kris was welcome in the clubhouse any time.

 

[Capella]

fight me

Best writers actually discussing this as a legit thing. Crowded roster.