I have the 11th pick in a 12 team non PPR, start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 Flex, K, DST. All TD's 6 points, 5 point bonuses for 100 or 300 yards. QB's traditionally go very fast in our league with the 6 point TD's.
With the projections for some of the big name QB's like Brady and Rodgers dropping due to losing weapons I think only a few will go high. Brees is far and away the #1 on my board, with Manning/Rodgers 2-3. Calvin will go for sure in the 5-7 range. No way he makes it to 11 in 99% of leagues after what he did last year, and knowing that he won't get tackled at the 1 six times this year. So I'm counting on a huge RB run + Calvin for sure. Somebody may take Brees or Rodgers but I'm not going to count on it. The following will be gone:
1) ADP
2) Foster
3) Charles (if injury isn't serious)
4) Martin
5) Calvin
So those 5 are gone for sure. Then it's a mix of the following - and they could go in any order in our league:
6) Spiller
7) Lynch
8) Richardson
9) Rice
10) McCoy
11) Morris
My guess is one of the guys is not going to to resist taking a QB, and it's too soon for the next wave of WR's like Bryan, Green, Jones, Marshall and Thomas, so I'm going to get left with somebody in that group above. I'm OK with that, although I'd less prefer McCoy/Rice. Hoping a Lynch/Richardson or Morris is there. But no real mystery for me - I'm taking the best available RB and unlike years past where this might have been a reach to take a RB this late in the first round it's not this year.
The real question, and what dictates the rest of the draft for me, is what to do in round 2. You could go another RB, likely what's left of Steven Jackson or Forte. Or you could go stud WR1 like Dez Bryant, who I have ranked 2. The tough decision for me will be if Brees is still sitting there - because to me he is far and away #1 on the board this year. But I'm likely not going there. Most likely looking at a Steven Jackson/Dez Bryant decision with the 14th pick. Serviceable QB's available much later, as are a group of 20-25 WR's who could all end up between 800-1000 yards and 6-8 TD's. I think you need a top 5 stud at at least 2 positions to win a SB. So a McCoy/Steven Jackson start, though solid, doesn't really inspire me. I would be very happy with a Lynch/Richardson/Morris + Bryant start. Then it's a matter of value in the middle rounds and hitting a homerun on big upside later. I really want Bryce Brown on my roster. And Ty Hilton.
To me the 3rd and 4th round picks are the most critical at the 11th spot this year. Can't afford to miss with those.