***Official 2008 NFL IDP Draft Thread*** (2 Viewers)

[Jene Bramel]

It's the most wonderful time of the year.

Okay, so it's only Thursday, but it's worth drumming up the hardcore, diehard IDP interest as the week draws to a close. As we have the past two seasons (review the 2007 and 2006 threads on your walk down memory lane), we'll be blogging every major defensive pick of the draft Saturday and Sunday.

Scouting reports, analysis, speculation and innuendo. We'll have every angle covered. With the usual quickness.

 

[jgb95]

please pin this this year

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

My basement becomes my virtual War Room at 3PM Eastern.

Let's get it on.

 

[Chaos Commish]

My basement becomes my virtual War Room at 3PM Eastern.Let's get it on.

You have a whole basement dedicated to this? I feel bad. I just converted a closet in the spare bedroom. It does have two tvs and three monitors in it though!

 

[ditka85]

Here's to Mayo going to some LB starved team

 

[Weiner Dog]

We've already been given a gift with the Dolphins taking Jake Long. I was worried us IDP'ers would lose a guy like C Long or Gholston to the dreaded "3-4 OLB" designation. The only other 3-4 teams in the top half of the draft are NE, NYJ and BALT.

 

[Fiddles]

best thread on the draft every year

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Here's to Mayo going to some LB starved team

I will be shocked if Mayo is not drafter by the Lions.

 

[Rozelle]

Here's to Mayo going to some LB starved team

I will be shocked if Mayo is not drafter by the Lions.

Me too

 

[Chaos Commish]

Here's to Mayo going to some LB starved team

I will be shocked if Mayo is not drafter by the Lions.

Me too

Not me!

 

[Rozelle]

Here's to Mayo going to some LB starved team

I will be shocked if Mayo is not drafter by the Lions.

Me too

Not me!

My reasoning for Mayo: The Mike is such vital part of their scheme.

Their other needs are at probably the 3 deepest positions in the draft … OT, RB and DE.

They were aggressive in free agency trying to get one, but struck out with Vilma, then brought in Dan Morgan and Al Wilson.

Millen thinks the LB class is deep, so they will prolly draft a receiver.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Based on what is being said around here, Harvey is the #1 target of the Lions, but they don't expect him to be there. Mayo is next on their list. I would rather have Mayo come here.

 

[msommer]

TEN just have got to go for a defensive lineman in the 1st - unless they trade down because their guys are all gone. We'll know tonight

 

[Jene Bramel]

In addition to the usual as we learn where the most anticipated rookie names finally land, there are a few general storylines to me that have me this afternoon...

It looks like the second and third rounds will be the sweet spot for IDP purposes. Plenty of interesting talent in the first round, but much of it will be at rush linebacker, defensive tackle and cornerback. Not that unusual really, but if guys like Mayo and Rivers drop deep into the round or Gholston goes to a 3-4 club, it might be awhile before we get our first name to drool over.

Very interested to see what the Patriots and Niners do. Both could make picks that would signal a potential change in their scheme. I've seen some mocks that give Sedrick Ellis to the Pats; given the lack of top ILB (Bruschi and Hobson aren't very exciting), that could mean more 4-3 looks. Similarly, a lot of mocks are giving Quentin Groves to the Niners. The personnel currently looks more 4-3, but a guy like Groves would declare that they'll still use plenty of 3-4.

Safety class looks weak on paper, but there's a couple right fit, right time guys that could surprise.

Looks to be a glut of linebacker prospects that don't quite grade as well as guys like Ryans, DQJax, etc did in the middle rounds in recent drafts. But it could well shape up like 2006, where guys like Gaither, Keiaho, Wilkinson etal landed in very good backup roles with the potential to rise in future seasons.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What the hell. No sense in waiting until well into the afternoon and give into the Roger Goodell's effort to stretch the pre-draft day hype to near Super Bowl gameday proportions.

Multiple outlets are reporting...

1.02 -- DE CHRIS LONG -- St. Louis Rams

If this holds, it's about as good as it can get for Long's IDP value. It's clearly a better scenario than what Miami would have been. Long has the run support ability and array of pass rush skills to hit the 45-8 plateau necessary to have top IDP value. Depending on how healthy Leonard Little is, Long could play right away or ease into a 40 snap role in a rotation with James Hall. Little has been the strong side end for years, but it's very possible that Long might be slotted there with Little moving to the weak side. Long's value isn't changed much in either role, but Little could see some increased pass rush opportunity off the open end.

Now, if the Rams would permanently slot Adam Carriker in a 3-technique role, this could be a really menacing line on the field with plenty of IDP value to boot.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.05 -- DT GLENN DORSEY -- Kansas City Chiefs

With Jared Allen gone, Turk McBride was likely to move to end unless the Chiefs could find a rush end to complement Tamba Hali. Dorsey's penetrating style fits very well in the Tampa-2 Edwards prefers. If he plays to his scouting report, he could easily finish among the top five DTs for years to come. Going in this direction may also mean that Hali ends up on the weak side, with McBride moving outside to the left end. That would bode very well for Hali's pass rush prospects.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.06 -- OLB VERNON GHOLSTON -- New York Jets

Meh. Gholston looks athletic enough to play in space as an OLB, but his workouts, tape and scouting reports all suggest that he's been inconsistent at best on the field. Not much value in a 3-4 defense here in standard leagues. And while you can never have enough pass rushers, it doesn't bode well for Bryan Thomas at all. Might be worth a look in deep leagues, depending on how well the Jets' staff get him coached up as a backer.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.07 -- DT SEDRICK ELLIS -- New Orleans

Plenty of scouts feel Ellis is a better player than Dorsey. Similar penetrating, explosive style and maybe a better finisher than Dorsey. The Saints don't use as many under fronts as they used to in the La'Roi Glover stud seasons, but there's reasonable value for Ellis in DT leagues. I think Dorsey is likely the better option at this point.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.08 -- DE DERRICK HARVEY -- Jacksonville Jaguars

Harvey gets a lot of praise for his edge rushing skills, but he's 271 pounds and has shown the ability to play with leverage and hold up against the run. Better motor than he's given credit for as well. Plenty of opportunity for a defensive end in Jacksonville. Though Gholston isn't in a great spot, both Harvey and Long could be productive every down players early in 2008.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.09 -- LB KEITH RIVERS -- Cincinnati Bengals

I don't even want to speculate what to think here, but I will anyway.

Rivers likely slots into an OLB spot in the 4-3. But there's all sorts of scenarios with Ahmad Brooks and Odell Thurman on the roster. Though Thurman doesn't fit at SLB/LOLB, all three of these guys could fit at any of the LB slots. I suppose it's not completely out of the question that he's a piece in a hybrid scheme. Very difficult to predict IDP value until we see how these three potentially line up.

Best guess today if all three start is Rivers LOLB, Brooks MLB, Thurman ROLB.

 

[Jene Bramel]

So much for the defensive guys falling to the mid-first....

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.10 -- LB JEROD MAYO -- New England Patriots

Belichick has passed a few very good linebackers by in the early rounds in recent years. The secondary looks terrible. Bill Belichick must really love Mayo. While Mayo would obviously have looked better as a Lion for IDP purposes, this may not turn out too badly. We've busted the "3-4 ILB suck as IDP options" myth multiple times in this forum over the past few years, and the "Belichick" 3-4 system has generated plenty of nice production -- Andra Davis before the three headed monster in Cleveland and David Harris last year. It'll be interesting to see where and how Mayo is used. It's possible he may play in a rotation with Hobson and Bruschi early on, but Mayo should have solid long term value. Very unlikely that he approaches what Ryans, Willis, etal have in their rookie seasons.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.11 -- CB LEODIS MCKELVIN -- Buffalo Bills

Probably the best case scenario for McKelvin -- heavy favorite to start immediately and the increased amount of zone coverage he'll boost his opportunity and cancel out some of his somewhat shaky run support talent. McKelvin is a man coverage guy, though, so it'll be interesting to see if the Bills scale back some of the Tampa-2 they use.

As a side note, McKelvin is the best return prospect in the draft which might put a serious dent in the value of Terrence McGee in those leagues that use return yards.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.16 -- CB DOMINIQUE RODGERS-CROMARTIE -- Arizona Cardinals

Unlikely to be much value here. DRC has some interesting natural skills, but will need some additional seasoning and isn't known as a run supporter or solid tackler. Could get a small bump in value playing opposite Rod Hood per the rookie corner rule, but isn't likely to have a major long term impact in standard leagues. Should cement Antrel Rolle in the safety role.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.20 -- CB AQIB TALIB -- Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Talib looked like more of a man cover guy in a lot of respects as a college player, but some scouts question his playing speed and a Cover-2 scheme like that in Tampa is probably a good fit for him. Has very good ball skills and could have the potential to grow into a decent run supporting corner. Certainly worth watching in CB leagues and could be sneaky value at some point in standard systems.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Rivers to get a shot in the middle?

The buzz is that in Rivers they may very well have their immediate starting middle linebacker for the next seven to 10 years, a position where Lewis needs his stability and leadership after suffering with eight different starters since he arrived in 2003.

It would also allow them to flank him with Brooks on the strong side and Odell Thurman at weak, two guys that haven't been able to get acclimated to the middle, Brooks because of injury and Thurman because of two one-year league suspensions.

But FitzGerald and new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer offered no clues where they would play Rivers and all the rest of the backers.

"We'll see," FitzGerald said and Zimmer said, "The best guys are going to play, it doesn't matter how young they are."

We've been down this road with the Bengals before, but this would seriously boost Rivers' value. Rivers has the cover skills and range to handle the middle and would project to a three down role. You'd think that moves Brooks to the strong side (or bench) and Thurman to the weak side -- if both play to their talents.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.25 -- CB MIKE JENKINS -- Dallas Cowboys

Jenkins joins a group that includes Terence Newman, Pacman Jones and Anthony Henry. Quick, but not as physical as his size would suggest, he'll give the Cowboys a solid set of cover corners. Probably isn't solid enough in run support to have a major IDP impact and he'll compete with Henry (and possibly Jones) for playing time as a rookie.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.27 -- CB ANTOINE CASON -- San Diego Chargers

Projects to the third corner spot alongside Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer. Solid all-around scouting report, but unlikely to have much value as a third corner.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.28 -- DE LAWRENCE JACKSON -- Seattle Seahawks

Pretty good spot for Jackson. Has every down potential, but has been inconsistent enough in college that he could use some seasoning. Since he's unlikely to get a lot of snaps with Patrick Kerney and Darryl Tapp already in Seattle, he looks like a guy that might come into his own as a second or third year player right now.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.29 -- DT KENTWAN BALMER -- San Francisco 49ers

Questionable whether he's strong enough to fit as a 3-4 NT, but Mike Nolan is one of the 1-gap 3-4 coaches so it's not quite the concern it would be otherwise. On the other hand, it could be another sign that the Niners will play more 4-3 this year.

 

[Rozelle]

Surprised to see a couple Cover-2 teams draft CB's in the first.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.31 -- S KENNY PHILLIPS -- New York Giants

Very good two way safety. Should be a good fit in an aggressive defense that has made similar talents (Brian Dawkins, Gibril Wilson) productive in a hybrid safety role. Not a lock to be as successful as those two, but should have solid value immediately.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.32 -- DE PHILLIP MERLING -- Miami Dolphins

Not one to question a HOF coach like Bill Parcells, but while a lot of scouts thought Merling had the look of a 3-4 end rather than a 4-3 guy because of his questionable explosiveness off the snap, playing 3-4 end in a Parcells scheme isn't a great fit for a guy of Merling's size. The Dolphins have said there'll be no hybrid scheme this year and have grabbed plenty of big linebackers -- Torbor, Ayodele, etc -- suggesting that it'll be a 3-4. Merling in a 2-gap 3-4 has no IDP value and likely struggles significantly in that role at the next level.

Still trying to figure out why Quentin Groves wasn't the immediate pick here.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.35 -- CB BRANDON FLOWERS -- Kansas City Chiefs

Early favorite as the top IDP CB for this year and beyond. Flowers fits the Cover-2 profile perfectly. Solid zone cover instincts, excellent ball skills, more than willing in run support. Clear path to start opening weekend as he'll be competing with two college undrafted FA in Tyron Brackenridge and Dimitri Patterson. There's an argument that Flowers may have as much value as Phillips immediately.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.37 -- LB CURTIS LOFTON -- Atlanta Falcons

Big upside here. Lofton slots into the MLB job at some point. Stuck behind Keith Brooking for now, though there were rumors around the free agency period that Brooking could be released. Should be able to claim an every down role as a starter. Only question will be whether his relatively limited range will allow him to reach elite solo tackle stats.

 

[Rozelle]

2.37 -- LB CURTIS LOFTON -- Atlanta Falcons

Big upside here. Lofton slots into the MLB job at some point. Stuck behind Keith Brooking for now, though there were rumors around the free agency period that Brooking could be released. Should be able to claim an every down role as a starter. Only question will be whether his relatively limited range will allow him to reach elite solo tackle stats.

Could spell trouble for Nicholas this year, should Lofton shine early.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'll get back to you on these, Jene, but good job with this thread. Tonight I'll weigh in.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Going to scale back on the comments here. Will profile good value and interesting future potential only from here.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.43 -- S TYRELL JOHNSON -- Minnesota Vikings

Meh. Was hoping this kid would land in a good situation. Stuck behind Sharper and Williams in Minnesota, had a nice profile for a solid strong safety IDP prospect. Good to see that the Vikings thought enough of him to move up, but his value is in a holding pattern for now.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.45 -- LB JORDON DIZON -- Detroit Lions

Much better fit for a Tampa-2 than the Dan Connor rumors floating about. Should compete for an every down role at MLB immediately. Solid IDP value likely here. Should prove to be a good fit and a much better talent than Paris Lenon.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

2.45 -- LB JORDON DIZON -- Detroit Lions

Much better fit for a Tampa-2 than the Dan Connor rumors floating about. Should compete for an every down role at MLB immediately. Solid IDP value likely here. Should prove to be a good fit and a much better talent than Paris Lenon.

I love this pick. This kid looks like a player.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.50 -- DE CALAIS CAMPBELL -- Arizona Cardinals

Campbell's value may be limited by the Cardinals' hybrid scheme, but he should get time in a rotational role early. Wait and see kind of player in most leagues.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.52 -- DE QUENTIN GROVES -- Jacksonville Jaguars

You can never have too many pass rushers. Groves was thought to be a target of many of the 3-4 clubs, but falls to what should be a 4-3 end role in Jacksonville. Could pair with Derrick Harvey to form a nice end tandem for a number of years. With Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward also around, we may now be likely to see a lot of rotation as the two rookies grow into their roles.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.54 -- DE JASON JONES -- Tennessee Titans

Good potential here. Jones probably needs some technique work and doesn't play with as much leverage as his size would suggest, but he's got a nice first step. Has a chance to contribute soon opposite Kyle Vanden Bosch.

 

[Jene Bramel]

A few interesting LB prospects to come and a maybe a DB or two who could land in a decent role, but here's a first crack at a top ten to date. Rankings are based on a 1-2 year window in the FBG scoring system.



1 Jerod Mayo

2 Curtis Lofton

3 Jordon Dizon

4 Keith Rivers

5 Kenny Phillips

6 Brandon Flowers

7 Chris Long

8 Tyrell Johnson

9 Derrick Harvey

10 Glenn Dorsey

The top four backers are interchangeable at this point. None, in their current likely roles, have any major IDP value. I've got Mayo first based on the presumed vote of confidence he got from Belichick. Unless he wins a job outright, though, he may not have consistent value until 2009. Lofton, Dizon and Rivers will all have to win a job first -- assuming Lofton and Dizon win the MLB job and Rivers lands at an OLB slot, I think Lofton has slightly more upside than Dizon. If the rumors that Rivers may end up in the middle prove accurate, he moves up to the second slot and could be the odds-on favorite to be the #1 overall IDP in this class in 2008.

Phillips and Flowers are neck-and-neck for the top overall DB slot. Both are safer bets than the rookie DLs at this point. I don't think Vernon Gholston cracks the top ten in most scoring systems and the other DLs aren't likely to have a consistent impact until 2009. I think Lawrence Jackson and Quentin Groves have the best chance of cracking the top 20 DL list at some point, but neither look likely to get there anytime soon.

Doesn't look good so far.

 

[Tick]

1.11 -- LB LEODIS MCKELVIN -- Buffalo Bills

CBGreat thread. Personally, I see Dizon as underrated in your final analysis. If Paris Lenon put up those very good stats this year, someone with talent could explode.

 

[Jene Bramel]

1.11 -- LB LEODIS MCKELVIN -- Buffalo Bills

CBGreat thread. Personally, I see Dizon as underrated in your final analysis. If Paris Lenon put up those very good stats this year, someone with talent could explode.

Thanks Tick. And oops x 2. I meant to include Dizon with Rivers in the presumed OLB crowd for now. One concern with him is that he may start out at SLB this season. Those two sentences didn't come out right at all.I'm higher on the other three linebackers talent-wise right now. There's just enough concern about Dizon's athleticism (though it's hard to argue with his production) that I'm withholding a bit until I see him play against NFL competition or hear good things in minicamps.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thinking about the LB argument a little more...

If those four fall out in perfect roles, I see them like this long-term tonight:

1 Jerod Mayo (every down ILB)

2 Keith Rivers (every down MLB)

3 Curtis Lofton (every down MLB)

4 Jordon Dizon (every down MLB)

I think Mayo and Rivers are the best all-around talents. Rivers could potentially be 1a if Zimmer's scheme is favorable. Dizon has more range than Lofton and would move ahead of him if his mini-camp reports suggest he's as consistent as he was in college and that he won't get swallowed up by blockers given Detroit's suspect DT corps right now.

For now, though, I'm not buying that Rivers is the MLB in the long term and I'm guessing Lofton and Dizon will be by 2009 at the latest, therefore the Mayo-Lofton-Dizon-Rivers ranking. Not that he's got that high a ceiling, but I can foresee moving Rivers from 4 to 1 as I did with Ryans two training camps ago.

Clear as mud on draft night as usual. But it's fun.

 

[Gamma1210]

2.52 -- DE QUENTIN GROVES -- Jacksonville Jaguars

You can never have too many pass rushers. Groves was thought to be a target of many of the 3-4 clubs, but falls to what should be a 4-3 end role in Jacksonville. Could pair with Derrick Harvey to form a nice end tandem for a number of years. With Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward also around, we may now be likely to see a lot of rotation as the two rookies grow into their roles.

Do you think this helps or hurts Harvey's value? Groves will demand attention from the O-line, but Groves seems like he will take away some big plays from Harvey.

 

[Jene Bramel]

2.52 -- DE QUENTIN GROVES -- Jacksonville Jaguars

You can never have too many pass rushers. Groves was thought to be a target of many of the 3-4 clubs, but falls to what should be a 4-3 end role in Jacksonville. Could pair with Derrick Harvey to form a nice end tandem for a number of years. With Paul Spicer and Reggie Hayward also around, we may now be likely to see a lot of rotation as the two rookies grow into their roles.

Do you think this helps or hurts Harvey's value? Groves will demand attention from the O-line, but Groves seems like he will take away some big plays from Harvey.

I think it's too early to know whether they'll hurt, help or have no impact on each other in the long term. I'm not a draftnik, but my impressions of their scouting reports are that Harvey has a better chance of contributing in a 40 snap role this year than Groves. My guess is that Groves has an impact somewhere between Mark Anderson and Brian Robison in a 15-20 snap situational role. Spicer and Hayward, if healthy, will likely get enough playing time this year to keep either of them from having a big impact.