*** Official 2008 NFL Week 4 Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)

[TheWick]

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

9/28 1:00 ET Denver -9.5 At Kansas City 46.5

9/28 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -3.5 Cleveland 44.5

9/28 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -8 Houston 42

9/28 1:00 ET At NY Jets -1.5 Arizona 45

9/28 1:00 ET At New Orleans -5.5 San Francisco 48.5

9/28 1:00 ET At Carolina -7 Atlanta 39.5

9/28 1:00 ET At Tennessee -3 Minnesota 36.5

9/28 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1 Green Bay 43

9/28 4:05 ET Buffalo -8 At St. Louis 41.5

9/28 4:05 ET San Diego -8 At Oakland 45.5

9/28 4:15 ET At Dallas -11 Washington 46

9/28 8:15 ET Philadelphia -3 At Chicago 41

Monday Night Football Line

9/29 8:35 ET At Pittsburgh -7 Baltimore 35.5

 

[The_Man]

At first glance, I like New Orleans coming home after two straight road games vs. a SF team that might be a little overhyped right now.

Will also probably keep riding Tennessee until they lose. I still don't think the lines have caught onto the fact that the Titans are a better team with Collins than with Young. Also, the Dallas line seems a little big, considering the kinds of wars they usually play vs. the Redskins.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Denver- Scoring a ton of points and I think will cover this, even with the suspect D. Kansas City is one team that might not be able to exploit it.

New Orleans- See Denver, above. Detroit makes everyone look good and I think SF will have a hard time in NO.

Minnesota- defense has been right on and I think Frerotte can keep this very close, if not pull out the win.

Washington- 10 points is too much to give anyone in that division. Dallas is the better team, but the games always seem to come down to the wire.

 

[The Jacket]

I gave you Atlanta as FREE MONEY last week. I will give you Denver as free money this week.

Free money.

 

[massraider]

I gave you Atlanta as FREE MONEY last week. I will give you Denver as free money this week.Free money.

Yeah, tough to see this being anything but a blowout.Course, I thought that about Giants-Bengals.

 

[TheWick]

It does look like there are some better games to pick from this week. My only bet last week was on CLE...never again.

I couldn't imagine the Bills winning by less that 17 in STL this weekend.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I'm still carrying on an intersting(in my opinion) discussion in the week 3 thread, and I'd like more opinions/thoughts/analysis on it, so I hope you guys don't mind if I post it here as well:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...p;#entry9262211

Remember guys, always ask yourself "Why would the book be offering me this bet?". Carolina +3.5 imo is a huge BSP(bar stool pundit) pick this week, and Vegas usually wins in these cases(by usually I mean around 55%, so I'm certainly not saying its a lock). I already gave my reasoning for this in the "Carolina will lose this week" thread, so just look there if you want it.

Imo Baltimore is the most undervalued team in the early season. Football Outsiders loves them, and I usually find their analysis spot on. They are much better than the public percieves them to be, and they represent great value both this week and in coming weeks imo.

I also am loving the Den/NO under. An interesting post I found over at Fezzik's place:

There's a couple of NFL games totalled in the 50's this week. Games with a 50+ total are 53-65-2, 55.1% going back to 1989 (57.7% since 2002 for those that believe the market has sharpened up in the last few years).

It's only 120 games so not much sample, right? I agree. The thing is though, pretty much every single market I have looked at across the board- even fringe stuff like CFL and WNBA - has always shown the same pattern: high totals go Under >50% of the time AND low totals go Over >50% of the time as well.

At this point it's not about handicapping the game anymore. All these small subsets add up together into one big subset and point to a very clear conclusion: the market in general tends to inflate big totals and "deflate" (couldn't think of a better word LOL) low totals.

I think the tendency should be stronger at the beginning of the year when there's an opportunity to overreact to a small number of games. I went ahead and played NO/Den Under 51 -107 for fear of losing the strong 51. No need to jump on GB/Dall just yet since it's an SNF game.

9/18/08 11:48 AM

PC is spot on here...

i don't think my previous explanation was very clear. so i will give it a simplistic attempt.

lets go back to the fictitious league, lets also pretend that we created all the teams fairly equal at least in the totals matchup. league average is 41. we play a couple weeks with our 8 team league, and we see that after 2 weeks that a single team played to totals below 35 both times, another single team played to a total above 47 both times. Since we created the league of equals we KNOW that we are simply looking in hindsight at a sampling. We know that it is just the natural distribution of scores.

in reality there are teams that have higher totals than the league average and there are teams that have lower totals than the league average, and there true mean is nowhere near the league average. However when you combine all the effects especially, 1) the sampling bias, 2) the public betting trends, it only points to real value on very high totals and real value on very low totals. you are seeing a small sample of what is to come and some teams overperform the total and others underperform it, but most of the league is more on par. just as we would expect in a natural distribution.

my lack of mathematical explanation notwithstanding, this is a real "trend" that isn't a traditionally -ev trend. it is a product of how totals are made. it is made from data. leaguewide though conclusions can only be made with the data that they have.

i noticed a very sharp bettor this week betting these totals. he probably bet 10 or 12 totals this week. however he actually handicaps totals based on performance but the performance data should mimick this system to a degree. in the case of this week it mimmicked it very well.

good job.

Baltimore will continue to be 2 unit plays for me until the public catches up to how good they are. I'm kinda pissed they have to play at Pit next because if they win there, then the public may finally catch on.

I by no means expected Baltimore to be 2-0 right now, so they are better than I expected. But what makes you say they are so good - ultimately, all they've done is beat 2 overwhelmingly bad divisional opponents at home. Not to discredit them, but they aren't making the playoffs IMO.

You guys who are into football betting should start reading Pro Football Prospectus and footballoutsiders.com a bit more. I mean no disrespect to footballguys by this, but I think FO is way more sharp when it comes to predicting outcomes than FBGs(but FBGs is easily the best fantasy football site online imo). Especially on the message board here on FBGs we see way too much results oriented thinking and way too many people interested in bragging about their predictions that happened to come true than to honestly look back at their predictions and evaluate whether they were actually good predictions or just 50/50(or worse) predictions that got lucky to hit.FO had Baltimore as the best team in their division and a 10 win team coming into the year I believe.

I won't go into all of the reasoning, but long story short is that the public and most of the square bettors simply look at record and not how they arrived at such a record. For example, the Browns ran insanely well last year to get the record they did. They avoided injuries, they had an easy schedule, and they flat out got lucky to win a few games in which they were outplayed by most metrics.

Conversely, the Ravens were a 13-3 team two years ago that ran horribly last year. Most people are now way underrating them as they just look at their record from last year.

Also, stop looking at just record. Imo point differential is just as important(if not moreseo) than record for determining future outcomes(although I'd agree with you that taking SOS is important when considering either). The Ravens aren't just 2-0; They are 2-0 with a 45-20 point differential.

Conversely everyone was all over Carolina this week because "OMG Carolina is 2-0 and Minnesota is 0-2...how can Minnesota possibly be favored??!!!"...but Carolina was barely ahead in point differential, had played an easier schedule, and the game was in Minnesota.

I've been learning a ton about sports betting these past few weeks, and I still have a lot to learn. Right now I'm betting $500 or $1000 per game and while I'm off to a good start, I'm by no means confident. I'd like to continue to improve to the point where I can bet significantly more and use sports betting as a second income to my pro poker career as early as the 2009 NFL season.

 

[Assani Fisher]

An interesting post I found over at twoplustwo:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.p...an=0&page=1

the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOT

the next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies

1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex.

2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc...

3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted.

4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks

5.) how consistently you can beat the average closing line/price (see daringly's post)

6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.

I can't stress the first part of #3 enough btw. Anyone who has any hope of beating sports in the long term should be making their own lines BEFORE seeing the actual line and then taking the games in which they feel as if the bookie's lines are off. I think that you guys who post here should not just post your picks, but also post what you feel as if the true line should be. And if you're constantly coming up with lines that are way off what the book has(such as the poster who thinks Buffalo should be 17+ point favorites) then I guarantee you that you're wrong and the book is not that far off of the true line.

 

[renesauz]

Philly, Denver and Dallas all look like easy bets at this point.

Maybe the Philly line is close because of Wetbrook's "questionable"?

 

[pacman_fl]

An interesting post I found over at twoplustwo:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.p...an=0&page=1

the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOT

the next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies

1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex.

2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc...

3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted.

4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks

5.) how consistently you can beat the average closing line/price (see daringly's post)

6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.

I can't stress the first part of #3 enough btw. Anyone who has any hope of beating sports in the long term should be making their own lines BEFORE seeing the actual line and then taking the games in which they feel as if the bookie's lines are off. I think that you guys who post here should not just post your picks, but also post what you feel as if the true line should be. And if you're constantly coming up with lines that are way off what the book has(such as the poster who thinks Buffalo should be 17+ point favorites) then I guarantee you that you're wrong and the book is not that far off of the true line.

There is not more to add to this. I could talk to someone for hours on end about this and one of the priviledges (for me) about living in Nevada is spending time in the sports book (similar to the poker rooms) and talking to those who get it and those who don't (because you learn from both). Thanks for posting Assani.

 

[TheWick]

An interesting post I found over at twoplustwo:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.p...an=0&page=1

the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOT

the next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies

1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex.

2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc...

3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted.

4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks

5.) how consistently you can beat the average closing line/price (see daringly's post)

6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.

I can't stress the first part of #3 enough btw. Anyone who has any hope of beating sports in the long term should be making their own lines BEFORE seeing the actual line and then taking the games in which they feel as if the bookie's lines are off. I think that you guys who post here should not just post your picks, but also post what you feel as if the true line should be. And if you're constantly coming up with lines that are way off what the book has(such as the poster who thinks Buffalo should be 17+ point favorites) then I guarantee you that you're wrong and the book is not that far off of the true line.

I think the hardest part of no being square (admittedly I am) is trusting how you cap a game and not letting outside sources (media, message boards, past team performance) sway your hard fact capping of a game. I have a REAL interest in betting football purely for the sport of it. Monetary gains are purely a plus...but the thrill of beating the odds is clearly my main motivation. I do try to time lines and try to get the most out of every bet. I'm faily new to it and didn't even fully understand odds until last year...lol...I've read Dan Gordon's book and am interested in reading more if you "sharps" can recommend any reading that would be great. Thanks

 

[Assani Fisher]

An interesting post I found over at twoplustwo:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.p...an=0&page=1

the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOT

the next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies

1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex.

2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc...

3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted.

4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks

5.) how consistently you can beat the average closing line/price (see daringly's post)

6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.

I can't stress the first part of #3 enough btw. Anyone who has any hope of beating sports in the long term should be making their own lines BEFORE seeing the actual line and then taking the games in which they feel as if the bookie's lines are off. I think that you guys who post here should not just post your picks, but also post what you feel as if the true line should be. And if you're constantly coming up with lines that are way off what the book has(such as the poster who thinks Buffalo should be 17+ point favorites) then I guarantee you that you're wrong and the book is not that far off of the true line.

I think the hardest part of no being square (admittedly I am) is trusting how you cap a game and not letting outside sources (media, message boards, past team performance) sway your hard fact capping of a game. I have a REAL interest in betting football purely for the sport of it. Monetary gains are purely a plus...but the thrill of beating the odds is clearly my main motivation. I do try to time lines and try to get the most out of every bet. I'm faily new to it and didn't even fully understand odds until last year...lol...I've read Dan Gordon's book and am interested in reading more if you "sharps" can recommend any reading that would be great. Thanks

I just picked up Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong for $14 at target.com, and from what I've heard its by far the best book to get started in sports betting.

 

[PACKER 7]

I'd take the Skins all day. That's way too many points to give to Washington.

 

[Assani Fisher]

I'd take the Skins all day. That's way too many points to give to Washington.

Home field advantage is worth 3 points.Last week Dallas was -3 at GB, meaning that Dallas was determined to be 6 points better than GB.This week Dallas is -10 at home vs Washington, meaning that Dallas is determined to be 7 points better than Washington.Especially considering that Dallas covered easily against Green Bay, I really don't see the line being that off. Do you think Washington is better than Green Bay?

 

[Jimboozie]

Was DE Jason Taylor will miss week 4 vs Dallas. Saw it on Sportscenter. I don't think the Redskins are better than Green Bay, but it could be close. It's hard to tell how good Jason Campbell will consistently be. I'm not really sold on him yet. I think Dallas should be a 13 pt favorite.

Thanks for pointing us squares in the right direction, Assani.

Do any US players shop for lines online? Seems like a pain in the butt to have multiple online sportsbook accounts funded.

 

[Assani Fisher]

Was DE Jason Taylor will miss week 4 vs Dallas. Saw it on Sportscenter. I don't think the Redskins are better than Green Bay, but it could be close. It's hard to tell how good Jason Campbell will consistently be. I'm not really sold on him yet. I think Dallas should be a 13 pt favorite. Thanks for pointing us squares in the right direction, Assani. Do any US players shop for lines online? Seems like a pain in the butt to have multiple online sportsbook accounts funded.

I only use Vegas sportsbooks, but I'm pretty sure that any serious sports bettor has an account at every single reputable online site.And I'm probably sharp compared to most here, but I'm definitely still a square overall and I have a lot to learn myself. Most of what I've been posting is just me taking what I've read and re-wording it pretty much.

 

[TheWick]

more updated in the first post still waiting on totals for the sunday and monday night games

I placed a large wager on a teaser...shame on me

SD-1

BUF -2

Thats my only play for the week...square as can be

 

[MarshallPlan]

An interesting post I found over at twoplustwo:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.p...an=0&page=1

the rule of thumb is if you're unsure whether or not you're sharp and have to ask, you're NOT

the next 6 pts generally outlines a true sharp player, you likely need at least 4 to be within what's considered as sharp territory, also make sure the entire bullet applies

1.) you are willing to shop for the best number and not just grab it from your 1st out, you also have some predictions as to the overall line movement for the bet and try to time your bets to obtain the best shopped number at its apex.

2.) you actively try to find and bet middles, scalps, +ev promotions and bonuses whenever possible. a large part of this again depends on your predictions of line movement. also any +ev derivative of straight bet combinations, whenever they could be found such as correlated parlays/teasers/etc...

3.) you handicap the sport w/out the aid of the seeing the lines already in place, you constantly use tools such as datamining, insider knowledge, statistics and winning subsets to help you improve your handicapping. you also present value the bet after the game is over and see how accurate your original cap was and how you can further improve the process. this is then factored into your next handicap w/ the most recent results more heavily weighted.

4.) when you have active discussions w/ other gamblers whom you respect to be sharp (or reading their books or posts), you're more interested in discussing and learning their winning methods than just to obtain their picks

5.) how consistently you can beat the average closing line/price (see daringly's post)

6.) you have a bankroll set aside for gambling purposes only, and have kept detailed long term records of all your bets. you have won consistently over the long term at the sports that you're presently betting (refer to your detailed records), and you have cut back or ceased altogether betting on the sports that you have not consistently demonstrated a profit in. you use some derivative form of kelly criterion to help you size your bets according to the estimated edge based on both your current calculations and previous records.

I can't stress the first part of #3 enough btw. Anyone who has any hope of beating sports in the long term should be making their own lines BEFORE seeing the actual line and then taking the games in which they feel as if the bookie's lines are off. I think that you guys who post here should not just post your picks, but also post what you feel as if the true line should be. And if you're constantly coming up with lines that are way off what the book has(such as the poster who thinks Buffalo should be 17+ point favorites) then I guarantee you that you're wrong and the book is not that far off of the true line.

Not necessarily true, but I think it does help if you make your own lines. I'd be pretty close to spot on if I made lines every week, so no real need to make my own. Sides not totals - I'm not great at totals. I got so good at ACC hoops a few years ago I'd cap every side and total within 2 pts, showing the bookmakers are pretty good, so you have to get creative in finding other ways to make money. For me it's props.No doubt about it #5 is the most important point. If you make a bet at +4.5 -110 and it closes +3 -110 and it loses you have to say who cares. It's a good bet, live with it.

 

[gkza]

bump

 

[TheWick]

updated all the lines

 

[kroyrunner89]

i had a great year last year and an awesome week 1, but i'm looking square after the last 2 weeks, went from 5-1 to 9-8 . ouch. anyways i'll take another stab at this, here's who i like this week in order of confidence:

Philly -3

Arizona +1.5

San Diego -8

Denver -9.5

Baltimore +7

That's all I'd even consider this week, I wouldn't touch any of the other games. I think the best option this week is to put a couple 6 point teasers together and wait for week 5's lines. good luck everyone

 

[AB in DC]

Back to .500 after last week.

The only lines I like here are:

Tampa -1

-> I think the bettors are still underestimating Tampa's defense.

Bal-Pit OVER 35.5

-> The herd sees this as a defensive struggle and is driving the line too low. Don't discount the injuries on Pittsburgh's defense.

[edit: This will probably be my last post in a wagering thread. I have traditionally been 52-60% in the first four weeks only and then back to 50% for the rest of the season, so no point in continuing to post when I am only 50-50.]

 

[crnerblitz]

I'm back to square after last week. I expect to have a good week as I really like the 3 plays I have for everyone.

Week 1: 1-1

Week 2: 2-1-1

Week 3: 1-2

Total to date: 4-4-1

Denver -9.5 The QB change in KC won't slow down Denver scoring.

Buffalo -8 The QB change in STL wont slow .... just see above.

NY Jets -1.5 Back to back road trips cross country against a team comming of of 2 losses. Lay the points.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

more updated in the first post still waiting on totals for the sunday and monday night gamesI placed a large wager on a teaser...shame on meSD-1 BUF -2Thats my only play for the week...square as can be

Don't tease through zero. A game can't end at +/- .5, and is very unlikely to end at 0, so you waste 3 possible numbers that it could land on. Much better to try to tease through key numbers like 3 and 7. The best teasers are games where you tease the dog from +1.5-2.5 to +7.5-8.5

 

[DaveL]

over on denver, jax and the chargers to win

 

[kroyrunner89]

NY Jets -1.5 Back to back road trips cross country against a team comming of of 2 losses. Lay the points.

Arizona stayed out east after their Washington game, so they didn't have the travel again. Does that change anything for you?

 

[Billy Bats]

wk1 3-0

wk2 1-1-1

wk3 1-2

this week

NO -5.5

Jax -8

Arz +1.5

 

[JKL]

Week 1: 4-3

Week 2: 5-1-1

Week 3: 3-2

TOTAL: 12-6-1

==========================================

Last week, there was discussion about Detroit. While that pick was incorrect, similar rationale is what lead me to Oakland and alot of my other picks that have been successful. I'm a bit of a contrarian early. A few teams will continue to be bad or good, but alot of times, things aren't quite as good, or bad, as they seem based on one week.

This week, I'll start off with Kansas City +9.5 at home versus Denver. This is a traditionally home dominated series. I also don't think people are truly grasping how dreadful Tyler Thigpen was. The guy should never start an NFL game again. He played the majority of the Oakland game and all of the Atlanta game. He was 28 for 67 for less than 4 yards per attempt. Damon Huard is no world beater, but he will be a substantial improvement over that, and it should help both the offense and the defense (which went back on the field after 6 straight 3 and outs to start the Atlanta game).

I'll also go with Washington +11. That's a lot of points in this series, the division series that has seen the most upsets. I think people have a mental impression of Washington on Thursday night opener burned in their minds, and all they have done since then is beat two decent teams at home that are going to be in the hunt for a playoff spot this year.

Others:

Houston +8

San Fran +5.5

Tampa Bay -1

Baltimore +7

I'm tempted, but will lay off the Rams for now. I'll just say that the Rams and Lions will start being solid point spread values as the season goes on. Teams that have started 0-3 and have performed at least 40 points worse than expectation over those 3 games have gone 11-10-1 in game 4 against the spread, and 137-121-6 ATS (53.0%) the rest of the year. Vegas isn't going to take a beating with squares going against those kind of teams.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Week 1: 4-3Week 2: 5-1-1Week 3: 3-2TOTAL: 12-6-1==========================================Last week, there was discussion about Detroit. While that pick was incorrect, similar rationale is what lead me to Oakland and alot of my other picks that have been successful. I'm a bit of a contrarian early. A few teams will continue to be bad or good, but alot of times, things aren't quite as good, or bad, as they seem based on one week.This week, I'll start off with Kansas City +9.5 at home versus Denver. This is a traditionally home dominated series. I also don't think people are truly grasping how dreadful Tyler Thigpen was. The guy should never start an NFL game again. He played the majority of the Oakland game and all of the Atlanta game. He was 28 for 67 for less than 4 yards per attempt. Damon Huard is no world beater, but he will be a substantial improvement over that, and it should help both the offense and the defense (which went back on the field after 6 straight 3 and outs to start the Atlanta game). I'll also go with Washington +11. That's a lot of points in this series, the division series that has seen the most upsets. I think people have a mental impression of Washington on Thursday night opener burned in their minds, and all they have done since then is beat two decent teams at home that are going to be in the hunt for a playoff spot this year.Others:Houston +8San Fran +5.5Tampa Bay -1Baltimore +7I'm tempted, but will lay off the Rams for now. I'll just say that the Rams and Lions will start being solid point spread values as the season goes on. Teams that have started 0-3 and have performed at least 40 points worse than expectation over those 3 games have gone 11-10-1 in game 4 against the spread, and 137-121-6 ATS (53.0%) the rest of the year. Vegas isn't going to take a beating with squares going against those kind of teams.

This is a solid card. I too was tempted to take the Rams, but laid off. SF was the same for me - tempting, but not quite tempting enough. I'm with you on Houston, Balt, KC, and Washington. Only favorite I'm on is Tenn -3. 100% agree regarding the Rams and Detroit. Neither is as bad as they seem, but they will be viewed as though they are.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total 9/28 1:00 ET Denver -9.5 At Kansas City 46.5 9/28 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -3.5 Cleveland 44.5 9/28 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -8 Houston 42 9/28 1:00 ET At NY Jets -1.5 Arizona 45 9/28 1:00 ET At New Orleans -5.5 San Francisco 48.5 9/28 1:00 ET At Carolina -7 Atlanta 39.5 9/28 1:00 ET At Tennessee -3 Minnesota 36.5 9/28 1:00 ET At Tampa Bay -1 Green Bay 43 9/28 4:05 ET Buffalo -8 At St. Louis 41.5 9/28 4:05 ET San Diego -8 At Oakland 45.5 9/28 4:15 ET At Dallas -11 Washington 46 9/28 8:15 ET Philadelphia -3 At Chicago 41 Monday Night Football Line 9/29 8:35 ET At Pittsburgh -7 Baltimore 35.5

Forgot to make my Game Predictor post, though I'm not sure anybody cares. GP is 6-6-1 on the year. Here's where it tells us there is value this week:Jax -10 Tenn -3Buff -8Philly -3Balt +6.5Cinci/Cleveland u44SD/Oak o45.5I'm sure not willing to lay 8 or 10 points on the road, but I am not keeping track of what I would do - I want to know what this "system" does.

 

[TheWick]

Week 1: 4-3Week 2: 5-1-1Week 3: 3-2TOTAL: 12-6-1==========================================Last week, there was discussion about Detroit. While that pick was incorrect, similar rationale is what lead me to Oakland and alot of my other picks that have been successful. I'm a bit of a contrarian early. A few teams will continue to be bad or good, but alot of times, things aren't quite as good, or bad, as they seem based on one week.This week, I'll start off with Kansas City +9.5 at home versus Denver. This is a traditionally home dominated series. I also don't think people are truly grasping how dreadful Tyler Thigpen was. The guy should never start an NFL game again. He played the majority of the Oakland game and all of the Atlanta game. He was 28 for 67 for less than 4 yards per attempt. Damon Huard is no world beater, but he will be a substantial improvement over that, and it should help both the offense and the defense (which went back on the field after 6 straight 3 and outs to start the Atlanta game). I'll also go with Washington +11. That's a lot of points in this series, the division series that has seen the most upsets. I think people have a mental impression of Washington on Thursday night opener burned in their minds, and all they have done since then is beat two decent teams at home that are going to be in the hunt for a playoff spot this year.Others:Houston +8San Fran +5.5Tampa Bay -1Baltimore +7I'm tempted, but will lay off the Rams for now. I'll just say that the Rams and Lions will start being solid point spread values as the season goes on. Teams that have started 0-3 and have performed at least 40 points worse than expectation over those 3 games have gone 11-10-1 in game 4 against the spread, and 137-121-6 ATS (53.0%) the rest of the year. Vegas isn't going to take a beating with squares going against those kind of teams.

This is a solid card. I too was tempted to take the Rams, but laid off. SF was the same for me - tempting, but not quite tempting enough. I'm with you on Houston, Balt, KC, and Washington. Only favorite I'm on is Tenn -3. 100% agree regarding the Rams and Detroit. Neither is as bad as they seem, but they will be viewed as though they are.

Problem I have with the Rams this weekend especially is not only is BUF a better team but also a team that is new to success and is a much much much tougher team than the Rams. I do think the Rams could go into WAS in week 6 and surprise that team a little but I don't think this is the game they snap out of it.

 

[aiverson]

Good thread again Wick. I didn't post my plays last week, and I guess it was a good thing, as I went 1-2. Could have been 2-1 w/o the Chi disaster.

Anyhow, on the season I am 12-3 (verifiable on my site or at various gambling MBs) and I'll try to post my plays here on Sunday AM. Good luck this week guys.

 

[TheWick]

Good thread again Wick. I didn't post my plays last week, and I guess it was a good thing, as I went 1-2. Could have been 2-1 w/o the Chi disaster.Anyhow, on the season I am 12-3 (verifiable on my site or at various gambling MBs) and I'll try to post my plays here on Sunday AM. Good luck this week guys.

I was wondering where you were...welcome back. We'll be looking for your plays Sunday AM

 

[Dexter Manley]

I always try and make my own lines for each game before looking at the lines vegas puts out. This week is what I came up with:

CAR -6 atl

den -10 KC

NO -7.5 sf

az even NYJ

TEN -3 min

TB even gb

JAX -6.5 hou

CIN -3 clev

SD -7.5 oak

buf -8 STL

DAL -10.5 was

phi -3 CHI

PIT -6 bal

The only game that is significantly off from what Vegas has now is NO. I rarely have a line off by more than 2 points than what vegas has, fwiw.

 

[dolphins54]

For what is it worth, I have been trying to anaylze spreads to determine when a favorite or underdog team has value. I categorize my plays based on the spread, winning percentage, home or away team, etc to track my success rate. I am coming up with 7 teams that are favorites that fall into a category that I have been 17-2 (.894 chance of winning) since the start of 2007. I doubt all 7 plays will win, but like my odds based on previous plays.

They are:

Broncos by 9.5

Bengals by 3.5

Jags by 8

Saints by 5.5

Titans by 3

Bills by 8

Bucs by 1

FYI- Last week, eventhough I did not post a message, I came up with 5 favorite teams as plays. (Falcons -5 1/2, Redskins -3, Eagles -3, Cowboys-3 and Chargers -9.) I was surprised to see that all 5 games covered.

 

[modogg]

i can't figure out why more people are not all over the Panthers giving 7 to the Falcons? Does anybody have any reason why the Panthers won't blow out the Falcons?

 

[Dragon1952]

Hate going with all favorites but....

Philly -3

Titans -3

Carolina -7

Denver -10

Buffalo -8 pick of the week

 

[Ghost Rider]

i can't figure out why more people are not all over the Panthers giving 7 to the Falcons? Does anybody have any reason why the Panthers won't blow out the Falcons?

I do not know the exact numbers off hand, but the Panthers under John Fox have a habit of doing well on the road, often against good teams, while not doing nearly as well at home, losing to or barely beating supposedly inferior teams. In fact, since the start of the 2006 season, I am pretty sure the road team has covered in most of Carolina's games. In other words, always take them on the road and go against them at home, and you will win more often than not.

 

[aiverson]

Hou +7.5

Ten -3

SF +5

Hou +7

* Houston is 9-3 ATS vs Jacksonville, including 6-0 ATS following a loss

* Houston is 10-4-1 ATS after losing while accumulating 120+ rushing yards, including 6-2 ATS since 2003 if away

* The Jaguars are 5-8 ATS after facing the Colts, including 1-6 ATS as favorites.

* I also have two solid rushing systems, which are 30-15-1 ATS and 17-8-0 ATS since 2002 and 6-3-0 ATS and 4-1-1 ATS since 2007, and both are suggesting Houston +7

I like Hou in this situation even though this is a team who is going to be playing through a lot of adversity. They really "showed up" last week in Tennessee and gave the Titans a battle. This will be their 3rd road game in a row, which happens more than you think in the NFL w/ bye weeks, but still is not extremely common. I just like this spot for them and I will look for them to get the win. I've seen several outlets who still have +7.5, so grab that if you can but don't spend too much on the hook if you would be buying to it. The Texans are actually 8-1 ATS when facing the Jaguars and the Jags have a better record, and they are 4-0 ATS in Jacksonville if the Jags have a better record. In those 4 games, Houston was underdogs of 7, 10, 10.5 and 13. Houston won all 3 games where the spread was fewer than 13 points. Most recently a low scoring, 3 point win in 2006. I don't know that this game will be as similar, as Houston has a lot going against their favor, having already lost their bye week and not playing at home in now the 4th week of the season. But I see them rallying here and getting the cover.

Ten -3

* Teams off a home win in which they covered and are home favorites of a FG or less to a team who is also off of a win in which they covered are 11-3-1 ATS since 2002 and 23-8-1 since 1996

* Tennessee is 11-1 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season at home as a favorite of less than 3.5 points, winning by an avg of 8 points and covering by an avg of 6 points. They are 4-0 ATS against the NFC in this situation.

* In the last 10 years, Minnesota is 1-9-2 ATS in the first 11 weeks of the season as a road dog of 3 or fewer points. They have lost by an avg of 13 points and failed to cover by an avg of 10 points. They have not won ATS in their last 10 contests.

I know what you may say - "he's playing Tennessee again?" and the answer is yes. I can't say I'm head over heels for this play, but I won't let the fact that Ten has covered 3 straight and won 3 straight dissuade me from making this play. As you know, I look at each game and of course analyze public perception as one factor, so of course I do care about more than looking only at week 4. I care about weeks 1-3 for both of these teams. But doing my research, I found that since 1990, there have been 34 NFL teams who started out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS. In week 4, there were 9 of those teams who fit a similar situation as Ten here. Favorites of 3.5 or fewer points. Those 9 teams went 7-2 ATS in week 4, covering by an average of 6 points. If these teams were playing at home, they went 4-0 ATS, covering by an average of 12 points. And actually, the last time this happened was last season, when 3-0 GB ventured into the Metrodome and defeated the Vikings, covering in the win by 6 points. Again, this was surely not a REASON to take Ten here, but it was a reason NOT TO BE SCARED to play them again. Against Min, they are not my favorite play on my card, but I do like them to get the job done at home.

SF +5

* The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in the first 10 weeks of the season after winning as a home favorite and heading onto the road

* The Saints under Sean Payton are 0-3 ATS after a road loss

* The Saints under Sean Payton are 3-8 ATS as home favorites, and just 1-5 ATS if favored by more than 4 points (failing to cover by an avg of 7 points and actually losing SU 3 of these 6 games)

* SF also falls into one of my rushing systems that has seen some success over the past several seasons.

I don't have much to say in this matchup, and you don't want to hear matchup analysis from me. The Saints are off a 2 game road trip and are finally home for 3 straight games. Teams who were on the road and then come home for the first of 3 home games (before week 10, so they are still in the early stage of the year), and are favored by more than a FG but less than a TD are actually 6-13 ATS.

 

[The Duff Man]

I am not sure the Bills should be big favorites against anyone yet and I am a Bills homer who won his biggest bet ever when they beat Jax two weeks ago.

They got lucky in that game against a toothless Jags team when MJD got hurt in the second half. Prior to him leaving the game the Bills were on their heels, having surrendered a first half lead and falling behind. After MJD left the game, the Jags couldn't get anything going on offense.

Then they went home against an Oakland team that was playing very well for their coach. The Bills made a lot of mistakes in this game and again caught a break when Gibril Wilson got ejected. The offense wasn't doing much until that point but turned it on late for another come from behind win.

Now they are going on the road against a team that is 0-3. Several Bills players have stated it this week, they know how hard the Rams will be playing, because the Bills have been 0-3 themselves to start the year and they will bust their ### to get their first win at home. I don't know how well liked Linehan is, but the Raiders played for their coach last week and there is similar rumbling in St. Louis about a change.

Lastly, a Bills WRs corp that is unimpressive will be missing Parrish. His absense will be felt on special teams as well.

While I don't doubt the Bills COULD blow them out, it has all the makings of a close game in my opinion.

 

[prosopis]

bump

 

[The Jacket]

What can I say, happy to be wrong, and glad I didn't bet it. It's sad but Damon Huard is like Joe Montana compared to Tyler Thigpen.

 

[TheWick]

Well the teaser payed off...but I was sweating...how did everyone do?

 

[The_Man]

At first glance, I like New Orleans coming home after two straight road games vs. a SF team that might be a little overhyped right now.Will also probably keep riding Tennessee until they lose. I still don't think the lines have caught onto the fact that the Titans are a better team with Collins than with Young. Also, the Dallas line seems a little big, considering the kinds of wars they usually play vs. the Redskins.

I am afraid of jinxing it, but I am killing the book so far this year at 9-2.Of course, a big part of that has been pounding Tennessee to a 3-0 streak since VYoung went down. Footballoutsiders made a very convincing case in this year's Pro Football Prospectus that the Titans are a much better team with Collins at QB. So I jumped on them in Week 2 and have been riding them. Will be interesting to see what happens with their line this week if the Ravens lose tonight. As much as I like the Titans, I might get off of them as a road favorite in Baltimore.Any early lines yet for next week?

 

[Assani Fisher]

Well the teaser payed off...but I was sweating...how did everyone do?

4-1, +$2766.23

 

[crnerblitz]

Well the teaser payed off...but I was sweating...how did everyone do?

4-1, +$2766.23

Not bad, only loss being the Dallas game eh? Well I-m back in the black with a 6-5-1 record. Are you making the bet the same amount or percentage like 2%, 4% or 5% every time or do you vary your bet dependant on how much confidence you have in the play?

 

[Assani Fisher]

Well the teaser payed off...but I was sweating...how did everyone do?

4-1, +$2766.23

Not bad, only loss being the Dallas game eh? Well I-m back in the black with a 6-5-1 record. Are you making the bet the same amount or percentage like 2%, 4% or 5% every time or do you vary your bet dependant on how much confidence you have in the play?

No, I never bet on any Skins games because I know I'm biased. My card this week was Atl +7, Buf -8(funny, one poster PMed me about this pick and I actually played devil's advocate and said that I didn't like it that much but I ended up taking it too), Cle +3.5, Ten -3, and I wonged Buf-2/SD-1.5. I vary my bet sizes according to the edge I estimate I have.

 

[modogg]

i can't figure out why more people are not all over the Panthers giving 7 to the Falcons? Does anybody have any reason why the Panthers won't blow out the Falcons?

I do not know the exact numbers off hand, but the Panthers under John Fox have a habit of doing well on the road, often against good teams, while not doing nearly as well at home, losing to or barely beating supposedly inferior teams. In fact, since the start of the 2006 season, I am pretty sure the road team has covered in most of Carolina's games. In other words, always take them on the road and go against them at home, and you will win more often than not.

thanks for the info. Luckily i didn't see this until tonight, or i may have been talked out of taking the Panthers. I'll keep this in mind going forward though, especially when they are on the road. on a side note, i see other people putting their tallies, and i am 13-2-1 in weeks 1, 2, and 4 (week 3 was not so good, but i can blame that on thinking too much about it and looking into what the "experts" thought). my loss was a dumb bet with the Eagles this week against the Bears, my other loss was the Colts over the Bears the 1st week, and my push was the Carolina-Chicago game. so if i stay away from Chicago i may be alright. No secret to winning here, but if i can help fellow gamblers win i will try. i can post my picks next week and hopefuly the luck continues

 

[TheWick]

Well the teaser payed off...but I was sweating...how did everyone do?

4-1, +$2766.23

Not bad, only loss being the Dallas game eh? Well I-m back in the black with a 6-5-1 record. Are you making the bet the same amount or percentage like 2%, 4% or 5% every time or do you vary your bet dependant on how much confidence you have in the play?

No, I never bet on any Skins games because I know I'm biased. My card this week was Atl +7, Buf -8(funny, one poster PMed me about this pick and I actually played devil's advocate and said that I didn't like it that much but I ended up taking it too), Cle +3.5, Ten -3, and I wonged Buf-2/SD-1.5. I vary my bet sizes according to the edge I estimate I have.

 

[crnerblitz]

Well the teaser payed off...but I was sweating...how did everyone do?

4-1, +$2766.23

Not bad, only loss being the Dallas game eh? Well I-m back in the black with a 6-5-1 record. Are you making the bet the same amount or percentage like 2%, 4% or 5% every time or do you vary your bet dependant on how much confidence you have in the play?

No, I never bet on any Skins games because I know I'm biased. My card this week was Atl +7, Buf -8(funny, one poster PMed me about this pick and I actually played devil's advocate and said that I didn't like it that much but I ended up taking it too), Cle +3.5, Ten -3, and I wonged Buf-2/SD-1.5. I vary my bet sizes according to the edge I estimate I have.

Thats too funny! I also never bet on the Redskins because of my own bias. I myself will only bet a side/total when I feel I have at least a 7% edge. I only need to hit 54% over time to make money, not much but enough. Thats a 3% overlay of what I have to hit to make money over the longhaul vs the public. Money management is where most people end up going broke. They widely vary their bets and try to make it up or crush their man in order to get in the black. Just like poker if i'm a favorite in the game I want to make sure I stay in the game by protecting my bankroll from wild swings when your running bad. I do this by only risking 2% of my bankroll on any one bet. When My Bankroll goes up or down by 20% I will recalculate my 2% bet. This allows me to insure that I will always be in the game. Just something I learned to help me manage my bankroll.