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Official 3rd pick strategy (1 Viewer)

death of the cool

Footballguy
For those of us that have the 3rd pick (or somewhere close) what are we looking at as the draft progresses? I always like to have some sort of plan going in, but of course I am always willing to be flexible if someone happens to fall in my lap. Also one of the nice little tricks that I am starting to use is FF calculators' "scenario" app, which gives you a percentage of chance that a player will make it to your pick based on their ADP....very nice app. That being said:

1.03 - This pretty much boils down to which guy is left between Foster, McCoy, and Rice. I guess a case can be made for Rodgers depending on how the leagues scoring is set up....for me the pick is RB L. McCoy. I would actually take him over Rice just because I feel the eagles offense will be more electric than the Ravens which will lead to more chances and more leads.

2.10-Now things get interesting. I'm a TE guy, and I would love for Graham or Gronkowski to make it to this spot. Right now Graham only has a 9% chance, but Gronk is at 44%...so it is a possibility. Cam Newton (55%) is about a coin flip chance of being there, and after having him last year it will be hard to pass up. Most of the interesting RB's are getting snagged before this pick. Peterson is at 30% chance to be here, but if he shows anything in the preseason that will not be possible. There are plenty of Wr's that should easily be available here: G.Jennings (67%), A.Johnson (72%), Welker (95%), and it just goes up from there....My thoughts are that I will have plenty to choose from when the turn comes at WR, so I will look to Cam or Gronk first or the oft chance that one of the 2nd round RB's drop, then I will fall back on ER's if it doesn't materialize...I'm a bit of a gambler when it comes to upside, so I will roll with QB C. Newton here.

3.03-After making the turn we really need to look at what may be available to us at 4.10 to help us choose where to go here. There are a ton of good WR's available next round, so I would lean toward getting my 2nd RB here. F.Jackson (41%), D.Sproles (64%), A.Bradshaw (90%), and M.Turner (93%) would all be solid choices here. If you just have to have a stud WR (which I usually do), AJ Green (87%), R.White (92%), and J.Jones (55%) are some good choices. If you have not selected your QB, this will probably be your last chance at Vick (92%). As for Te's, you should wait at least another round or 2 if you missed on Gronk and Graham. I will take F.Jackson here. Before his injury last year, he was beasting at 19 pts per game.

4.10-So far I have avoided taking a WR, and that is because I have really liked the depth at that position...however now is the time to jump on them because the depth will soon run out. I would look here at M. Austin (43%), M.Colston (53%), and B.Loyd (60%). You could also make a case for A.Gates (77%) here if you feel he will be healthy.Plenty of QB's should make it back in the 5th. Not mush is available at RB...R.Bush (47%), B.Green-Ellis (64%)and S.Greene (73%) are the best of the bunch. I will go with the sure bet of M.Colston who seems to put the same numbers up every year.

5.03-Around the turn, I would strongly advise you to grab your 2nd WR here or your first QB, because a good group of them wont make it back to you....Harvin (47%) is the least likely to be there, but you still have Maclin (72%), A.Brown (84%), D.Jackson (86%), and E.Decker(91%) just to name a few. QB should still be solid with P.Manning (82%), E.Manning (92%), and P.Rivers (96%) still here. TE is still very solid here with A.Hernandez (85%), J.Finley (96%), and V.Davis (98%). I am going with WR Antonio Brown and will hope one of the decent TE's makes it back to me.

6.10-After watching a ton of solid players go, you will now be left with taking some guys with potential, but with warts. If I haven't taken too many chances, this is about where I swing for a homerun. Running backs B.Wells (52%), D.Brown (77%), and James Starks (84%) all should be there. You may still be able to grab M.Ryan (67%)as the last of the starting tier of QBs. WR's R.Wayne (79%), R.Meachem (91%), and K.Britt (90%) are some solid choices at this point. TE dropped off the face of the earth, and we are left with Witten (67%) or Tamme (91%) or Fred Davis (96%). I will roll with WR K. Britt and gamble that he has made it back to that electric #1 that he was last year....and that he doesn't get but maybe a few game suspension.

more to come...

 
I'm picking 3rd in my 12 team PPR Re-Draft, with 6 pts per TD pass, and if the draft was today, my plan is as follows:

1.03 - If Rice or Foster falls to me, I take them, in that order. If not, I'm going Rodgers over McCoy. Almost purely based on safety and Rodgers' lack of bustability. I have a weird feeling about McCoy. That's hard hitting analysis there.

...I don't change much based on if I land (for argument's sake) Rice or Rodgers. My main change is to emphasize getting an RB at 4.10 if I get crazy and skip at 2.10 & 3.03...

2.10 - If Gronk or Graham falls, I'm taking them. If not, I'm looking for one of 3 RBs, realistically, in this order: Jamaal Charles, Steven Jackson, Darren Sproles. Charles or Jackson I take automatically, regardless of if I went Rice or Rodgers in the 1st. Sproles I would consider passing on for my elite WRs: Fitzgerald, Jennings, Marshall, Welker, Roddy, Andre

3.03 - Those Elite WRs are also my target here.

...At this point my team is either looks like this (I'll skip Gronk & Graham as I feel it is unlikely): Rice/SJax/Welker or Rodgers/Jennings/Marshall. I love both. As I mentioned though, if things get crazy and I miss my RB at 2.10 & 3.03, I've GOT to get one at 4.10. That guy is...

4.10 - Isaac Redman. Feels vital to land an RB with dependable carries, if I'm gonna start with no RBs in the first 3. I would begrudgingly settle for BJGE as well, but I'm a bit higher on him than most. If I went with Rice, I'm less worried about grabbing another RB here, and likely look for another elite WR (Jordy, Lloyd, Colston, Wallace) or consider my next tier of TEs if available (Hernandez, Gates)

5.03 - Pick up the pieces here, depending on how things go. One of those TEs, one of those WRs, or BJGE to pair with Redman if it works out. I may consider McGahee, but WR & TE would have to be dry for me to think about it.

That's enough pretending. If I don't go Rodgers at 3, I'm likely waiting till at least Matt Ryan to take a QB, and don't mind ending up with RG3 or Cutler, paired with Palmer a couple rounds later. Same with TE. If I miss my big guys (Witten sometimes gets to the 6th) I'll be waiting for an Owen Daniels/Celek/Rudolph tandem after Round 11/12.

That's just me. A recent mock team I was excited about using this(go ahead, rip away, I know NO RBS OMG):

QB A. Rodgers

RB M. Ingram

RB K. Smith

WR W. Welker

WR J. Nelson

WR M. Colston

TE R. Gronkowski

I'd gladly throw those RBs out there in week 1 if it means starting the other 5. I did attempt to back them up with some depth/fliers, but you know it gets scary after round 7 anyway :)

 
Recent mock I did from the 3 hole.

1.03 McCoy...went chalk here

2.10 Graham...obvious pick, I have 14th on my VBD

3.03 Julio...Green, Jennings, cruz just went at the turn, Cam still available

4.10 Bradshaw (Bush, McGahee still there, plenty of WRs)

5.03 Harvin

6.10 D Martin

7.03 M Ryan

8.10 Wayne

9.03 K Smith

10.10 Burleson

11.03 P Thomas

12.10 G Little

QB: Ryan

RB: McCoy, Bradshaw, Martin, Smith, Pierre

WR: Julio. Harvin, Wayne, Burleson, Little

TE: Graham

 
Tough call for me. McCoy is out b/c he is a keeper. So torn between Megatron, Matthews, and Rodgers in that order. Things from there change quite a bit depending on who I go with. Guess go with feel as it shakes out over the preseason.

 
I draft in the 3 hole as well but we use a third round reversal format (1.03/2.10/3.10/4.03)

1.03 - Will be the left over of Foster, McCoy, Rice for me as well. I like Rodgers but every mock I have done I hate the way the rest of my team looks if I go QB. I'll pencil in McCoy

2.10 - I'm really torn here, VBD says to take Graham or Gronk if they fall to me (I'm guessing one might given the guys in my league) however not picking again until the 3.10 the fall off in my WR1 and RB2 will be pretty large if I wait on them. It looks like most of my 2nd tier RB's won't fall, SJax is the closest at a 46% chance according to Fantasy Calculator, WR wise I should have a choice between at least a few guys, Jennings, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Marshall. I'd take one of my 2nd tier RB's if they fell, Sjax/Jamaal Charles/Richardson. Followed by Graham if he falls, which in my league I think is more likely then Gronk falling or one of the RB's. My last resort will be best WR available likely Jennings or Andre Johnson hould still be there if these other guys are all gone. I'll take a guess knowing my league and go with Graham here.

3.10 - I'll be hoping someone slips down to me here, especially if I went RB or TE in the 2nd, maybe a Welker, Marshall or Roddy White slips. According to FF Calculator I'll more likely be looking at a Victor Cruz/Hakeem Nicks/Jordy Nelson/Dez Bryant, all guys capable of putting up big games but none that are the solid #1 option. I think I might actually lean Jordy Nelson at this point.

4.03 - Will have to see how many RB's are off the board at this point, leaning toward Frank Gore or Reggie Bush as they'll likely be the last of my tier 3 RB's left. I'd consider WR again if it looked like I might have a chance at a Green-Ellis/Redman/Greene in the 5th and a Dez Bryant was still available. I guess pencil me in for Gore.

 
I have this pick coming up in my draft, 12 team PPR. This is a stream of consciousness post.

My plan as of now is

Round 1- Chalk, whichever big 3 RB lasts.

Round 2/3- Two of that massive tier of WR. In non PPR I would probably take a RB. I would take Gronk or Graham if by any chance they are there, but obviously they won't be. The guys that might be there that are going to give me pause- MJD or Ryan Mathews, especially MJD. I think he plays week 1, he's still a stud. The WR here are going to be Marshall, Andre, Julio, Welker, Jennings, Cruz. To grab TWO of those guys in PPR is pretty hard to resist.

Round 4/5- I like Reggie Bush in PPR, which is one of the reasons I am tempted to hold off on RB in the 2/3 turn and hope for him here. The problem is if he's gone there is little else left. Him or Bradshaw, but if they are both gone there is no RB worth taking here. Vick is likely still going to be here with his recent drop. I might take the plunge. I would also take Gates if he's there, he probably won't be. The WR here- I used to get Harvin early on in mocks but no chance of that now. Colston would be nice, also unlikely. Which leaves that group of Bowe, Maclin, Dez, Austin, Decker, Antonio Brown, Steve Johnson. They are all solid but none of them are safe 90+ catch locks that you can get in the 2/3 turn.

Round 6/7- Donald Brown, maybe Hillis is still there but doubtful. WR- Wayne, Garcon

So would you rather have Mathews and Bowe or say Greg Jennings and Bush?

 

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