death of the cool
Footballguy
For those of us that have the 3rd pick (or somewhere close) what are we looking at as the draft progresses? I always like to have some sort of plan going in, but of course I am always willing to be flexible if someone happens to fall in my lap. Also one of the nice little tricks that I am starting to use is FF calculators' "scenario" app, which gives you a percentage of chance that a player will make it to your pick based on their ADP....very nice app. That being said:
1.03 - This pretty much boils down to which guy is left between Foster, McCoy, and Rice. I guess a case can be made for Rodgers depending on how the leagues scoring is set up....for me the pick is RB L. McCoy. I would actually take him over Rice just because I feel the eagles offense will be more electric than the Ravens which will lead to more chances and more leads.
2.10-Now things get interesting. I'm a TE guy, and I would love for Graham or Gronkowski to make it to this spot. Right now Graham only has a 9% chance, but Gronk is at 44%...so it is a possibility. Cam Newton (55%) is about a coin flip chance of being there, and after having him last year it will be hard to pass up. Most of the interesting RB's are getting snagged before this pick. Peterson is at 30% chance to be here, but if he shows anything in the preseason that will not be possible. There are plenty of Wr's that should easily be available here: G.Jennings (67%), A.Johnson (72%), Welker (95%), and it just goes up from there....My thoughts are that I will have plenty to choose from when the turn comes at WR, so I will look to Cam or Gronk first or the oft chance that one of the 2nd round RB's drop, then I will fall back on ER's if it doesn't materialize...I'm a bit of a gambler when it comes to upside, so I will roll with QB C. Newton here.
3.03-After making the turn we really need to look at what may be available to us at 4.10 to help us choose where to go here. There are a ton of good WR's available next round, so I would lean toward getting my 2nd RB here. F.Jackson (41%), D.Sproles (64%), A.Bradshaw (90%), and M.Turner (93%) would all be solid choices here. If you just have to have a stud WR (which I usually do), AJ Green (87%), R.White (92%), and J.Jones (55%) are some good choices. If you have not selected your QB, this will probably be your last chance at Vick (92%). As for Te's, you should wait at least another round or 2 if you missed on Gronk and Graham. I will take F.Jackson here. Before his injury last year, he was beasting at 19 pts per game.
4.10-So far I have avoided taking a WR, and that is because I have really liked the depth at that position...however now is the time to jump on them because the depth will soon run out. I would look here at M. Austin (43%), M.Colston (53%), and B.Loyd (60%). You could also make a case for A.Gates (77%) here if you feel he will be healthy.Plenty of QB's should make it back in the 5th. Not mush is available at RB...R.Bush (47%), B.Green-Ellis (64%)and S.Greene (73%) are the best of the bunch. I will go with the sure bet of M.Colston who seems to put the same numbers up every year.
5.03-Around the turn, I would strongly advise you to grab your 2nd WR here or your first QB, because a good group of them wont make it back to you....Harvin (47%) is the least likely to be there, but you still have Maclin (72%), A.Brown (84%), D.Jackson (86%), and E.Decker(91%) just to name a few. QB should still be solid with P.Manning (82%), E.Manning (92%), and P.Rivers (96%) still here. TE is still very solid here with A.Hernandez (85%), J.Finley (96%), and V.Davis (98%). I am going with WR Antonio Brown and will hope one of the decent TE's makes it back to me.
6.10-After watching a ton of solid players go, you will now be left with taking some guys with potential, but with warts. If I haven't taken too many chances, this is about where I swing for a homerun. Running backs B.Wells (52%), D.Brown (77%), and James Starks (84%) all should be there. You may still be able to grab M.Ryan (67%)as the last of the starting tier of QBs. WR's R.Wayne (79%), R.Meachem (91%), and K.Britt (90%) are some solid choices at this point. TE dropped off the face of the earth, and we are left with Witten (67%) or Tamme (91%) or Fred Davis (96%). I will roll with WR K. Britt and gamble that he has made it back to that electric #1 that he was last year....and that he doesn't get but maybe a few game suspension.
more to come...
1.03 - This pretty much boils down to which guy is left between Foster, McCoy, and Rice. I guess a case can be made for Rodgers depending on how the leagues scoring is set up....for me the pick is RB L. McCoy. I would actually take him over Rice just because I feel the eagles offense will be more electric than the Ravens which will lead to more chances and more leads.
2.10-Now things get interesting. I'm a TE guy, and I would love for Graham or Gronkowski to make it to this spot. Right now Graham only has a 9% chance, but Gronk is at 44%...so it is a possibility. Cam Newton (55%) is about a coin flip chance of being there, and after having him last year it will be hard to pass up. Most of the interesting RB's are getting snagged before this pick. Peterson is at 30% chance to be here, but if he shows anything in the preseason that will not be possible. There are plenty of Wr's that should easily be available here: G.Jennings (67%), A.Johnson (72%), Welker (95%), and it just goes up from there....My thoughts are that I will have plenty to choose from when the turn comes at WR, so I will look to Cam or Gronk first or the oft chance that one of the 2nd round RB's drop, then I will fall back on ER's if it doesn't materialize...I'm a bit of a gambler when it comes to upside, so I will roll with QB C. Newton here.
3.03-After making the turn we really need to look at what may be available to us at 4.10 to help us choose where to go here. There are a ton of good WR's available next round, so I would lean toward getting my 2nd RB here. F.Jackson (41%), D.Sproles (64%), A.Bradshaw (90%), and M.Turner (93%) would all be solid choices here. If you just have to have a stud WR (which I usually do), AJ Green (87%), R.White (92%), and J.Jones (55%) are some good choices. If you have not selected your QB, this will probably be your last chance at Vick (92%). As for Te's, you should wait at least another round or 2 if you missed on Gronk and Graham. I will take F.Jackson here. Before his injury last year, he was beasting at 19 pts per game.
4.10-So far I have avoided taking a WR, and that is because I have really liked the depth at that position...however now is the time to jump on them because the depth will soon run out. I would look here at M. Austin (43%), M.Colston (53%), and B.Loyd (60%). You could also make a case for A.Gates (77%) here if you feel he will be healthy.Plenty of QB's should make it back in the 5th. Not mush is available at RB...R.Bush (47%), B.Green-Ellis (64%)and S.Greene (73%) are the best of the bunch. I will go with the sure bet of M.Colston who seems to put the same numbers up every year.
5.03-Around the turn, I would strongly advise you to grab your 2nd WR here or your first QB, because a good group of them wont make it back to you....Harvin (47%) is the least likely to be there, but you still have Maclin (72%), A.Brown (84%), D.Jackson (86%), and E.Decker(91%) just to name a few. QB should still be solid with P.Manning (82%), E.Manning (92%), and P.Rivers (96%) still here. TE is still very solid here with A.Hernandez (85%), J.Finley (96%), and V.Davis (98%). I am going with WR Antonio Brown and will hope one of the decent TE's makes it back to me.
6.10-After watching a ton of solid players go, you will now be left with taking some guys with potential, but with warts. If I haven't taken too many chances, this is about where I swing for a homerun. Running backs B.Wells (52%), D.Brown (77%), and James Starks (84%) all should be there. You may still be able to grab M.Ryan (67%)as the last of the starting tier of QBs. WR's R.Wayne (79%), R.Meachem (91%), and K.Britt (90%) are some solid choices at this point. TE dropped off the face of the earth, and we are left with Witten (67%) or Tamme (91%) or Fred Davis (96%). I will roll with WR K. Britt and gamble that he has made it back to that electric #1 that he was last year....and that he doesn't get but maybe a few game suspension.
more to come...