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*** Official Barack Obama FBG campaign headquarters *** (3 Viewers)

Tigran Petrosian said:
phthalatemagic said:
Tigran Petrosian said:
IvanKaramazov said:
Tigran Petrosian said:
adonis said:
phthalatemagic said:
adonis said:
Just because republicans wouldn't know what it was like this year to have a candidate that they passionately believed in doesn't mean I'm willing to pimp myself out to a candidate I believe in. Maybe one day soon the R's will put someone out who can capture the attention of the nation, and inspire people to the support you see for Obama, but that's certainly not happening this year.So continue with your cute little comments about porn stars, cults, messiah worship, rock star, and so on. It just smacks of jealousy to me.The democratic argument here are better than the ones that the republicans made when trying to shove Huckabee out of the race. Spread the shame jelly around on all the toast yankeefan.
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Wow
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That was said slightly tongue in cheek.
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No room for humor in here.
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Shouldn't you be toiling away in a lab someplace? I thought you had no time to spend on idle pursuits like posting in message board forums. The world of science needs you. Now.
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You're really reaching here.
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Not really
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The bitterness is palpable.
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I was thinking the same thing.
 
Here are the aformentioned Drudge numbers:

*PA Dem Voters

Women

Clinton 55%

Obama 44

Men

Clinton 47%

Obama 53

Whites

Clinton 60%

Obama 40

Blacks

Clinton 8%

Obama 92

 
Exits: Been There, Done That

04.22.08 -- 5:53PM

By Josh Marshall

As you may have noticed Drudge has up what he says are 5 PM exit poll numbers showing Clinton 52%, Obama 48%. I suspect they are 'accurate' as far as early, un-weighted exits can be. But let me point out that my recollection is that pretty much all the early and unweighted exits we've seen this cycle have turned out to be wrong. And often very wrong. So this has to be taken with a real grain of salt. And that's assuming they're not made up entirely.

Late Update: Jim Geraghty at NRO has Obama 52%, Clinton 47%.

And to be clear, when I say take them with a grain of salt, I don't mean that in the garden variety, being responsible, 'we don't know for sure yet' kind of way. I really mean that these early unweighted numbers have routinely been way, way off.

Later Update: Brendan Loy looked at some earlier states and seems to have confirmed what was my recollection that the early exits have not only routinely been wrong but they've routinely been wrong in Obama's favor.
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So...lot of Hillary love in the Keystone State or is Obama's bowtie showing??

She is whipping his butt right now. I imagine her doing this in latex.

 
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So far at least, all of the "bitter" talk, and the link to Wright and Ayres hasn't seemed to hurt Obama at all. He was behind by more in this state before all that news came out. At least among the Democrats, he seems to have ridden the storm out. How this stuff will affect him among independents in November remain to be seen.

 
Its funny hearing CNN stress exit polling as if it is a legitimate measure of voter sentiment. It was the exit polls that seemed to make Florida a lock for Al Gore in 2000, such that many of these news outlets called the state for the Vice President. And if that wasn't enough, in 2004 the exit polls showed John Kerry winning big and democrats began to really believe they had knocked off Bush43.

So here we are in 2008 and neither major gaffe is even mentioned. Instead they continue to tout exit polls as gospel. Talk about a lack of intellectual curiosity.

 
timschochet said:
So far at least, all of the "bitter" talk, and the link to Wright and Ayres hasn't seemed to hurt Obama at all. He was behind by more in this state before all that news came out. At least among the Democrats, he seems to have ridden the storm out. How this stuff will affect him among independents in November remain to be seen.
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Why isn't he running away with this thing by now? He only has the blacks and youth on board. Not good for him.Still, he only has to beat freakin McCain :unsure:
 
Brave Sir Robin said:
timschochet said:
So far at least, all of the "bitter" talk, and the link to Wright and Ayres hasn't seemed to hurt Obama at all. He was behind by more in this state before all that news came out. At least among the Democrats, he seems to have ridden the storm out. How this stuff will affect him among independents in November remain to be seen.
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Why isn't he running away with this thing by now? He only has the blacks and youth on board. Not good for him.Still, he only has to beat freakin McCain :unsure:
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And college educated democrats. He has a lot more than just blacks and youth on board, and don't underestimate the draw of Clinton. It's not like people don't want to vote for obama, it's just that they think Clinton is a better choice.
 
Pai Mei said:
Its funny hearing CNN stress exit polling as if it is a legitimate measure of voter sentiment. It was the exit polls that seemed to make Florida a lock for Al Gore in 2000, such that many of these news outlets called the state for the Vice President. And if that wasn't enough, in 2004 the exit polls showed John Kerry winning big and democrats began to really believe they had knocked off Bush43. So here we are in 2008 and neither major gaffe is even mentioned. Instead they continue to tout exit polls as gospel. Talk about a lack of intellectual curiosity.
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It's not that. People want the answers as soon as possible. So higher ratings go to those who use the exit polls. It's all about the ratings.
 
Is that a misprint on CNN, or does Hillary have more Superdelegates?

No way Hillary quits, even if this is a slim victory.. Obama outspent her 3 to 1, and she still will probably win.. The Clinton machine will spin this into another month..

 
Pai Mei said:
Its funny hearing CNN stress exit polling as if it is a legitimate measure of voter sentiment. It was the exit polls that seemed to make Florida a lock for Al Gore in 2000, such that many of these news outlets called the state for the Vice President. And if that wasn't enough, in 2004 the exit polls showed John Kerry winning big and democrats began to really believe they had knocked off Bush43.

So here we are in 2008 and neither major gaffe is even mentioned. Instead they continue to tout exit polls as gospel. Talk about a lack of intellectual curiosity.
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They want to build up their credibility to increase viewership. The truth be damned. They wont even check the sources much. They just wont talk about it afterwards.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4wQ4u4OriE

 
Much as I dislike him, Pat Buchanan on MSNBC hit the nail on the head. What portion of the Hillary voters will come back to Obama in the general, and what portion of these white blue collar voters will switch over to McCain? That is the key question of the election.

 
timschochet said:
Pai Mei said:
Its funny hearing CNN stress exit polling as if it is a legitimate measure of voter sentiment. It was the exit polls that seemed to make Florida a lock for Al Gore in 2000, such that many of these news outlets called the state for the Vice President. And if that wasn't enough, in 2004 the exit polls showed John Kerry winning big and democrats began to really believe they had knocked off Bush43. So here we are in 2008 and neither major gaffe is even mentioned. Instead they continue to tout exit polls as gospel. Talk about a lack of intellectual curiosity.
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It's not that. People want the answers as soon as possible. So higher ratings go to those who use the exit polls. It's all about the ratings.
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As you say its all about the ratings, not intellectual curiosity.
 
This really is fun. This is way the primary system was supposed to work. No foregone conclusions. Regular old daily political wrangling.

At some level, we should cherish this. It hasn't happened since the 60's, and I can gaurantee it won't happen again if the powers that be can help it.

 
adonis said:
Fox news just projected Hillary winning :(
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When was Obama ever going to win Penn? Never.Noone in and around Penn ever thought it was going to be anything to the contrary.You may have the new "democrats" signing for Obama, but you had the crossover whores voting for Hillary.
 
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
Hammered Finz said:
Less than 1% of the vote, has Clinton 66 Obama 34..I'm sure this will get closer...
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The Obama fans better hope so, otherwise the Democratic party has a real mess on its hands.
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Nah. Penn is going to be 10%+ for Hillary. It doesn't make it any more messy then it has already been.
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It's all about perception. If it's 11% or more, the perception may very well be that the Democrats are stuck with a left-wing candidate who can't win the general election. Hillary's people could convince everyone of this, yet she could still fail to win the nomination, meaning that Obama will enter the general election wounded, perhaps mortally. It's the worst possible cirmcumstances for the Democrats.
 
Yankee23Fan said:
This really is fun. This is way the primary system was supposed to work. No foregone conclusions. Regular old daily political wrangling.At some level, we should cherish this. It hasn't happened since the 60's, and I can gaurantee it won't happen again if the powers that be can help it.
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:(
 
timschochet said:
BigSteelThrill said:
timschochet said:
Hammered Finz said:
Less than 1% of the vote, has Clinton 66 Obama 34..I'm sure this will get closer...
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The Obama fans better hope so, otherwise the Democratic party has a real mess on its hands.
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Nah. Penn is going to be 10%+ for Hillary. It doesn't make it any more messy then it has already been.
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It's all about perception. If it's 11% or more, the perception may very well be that the Democrats are stuck with a left-wing candidate who can't win the general election. Hillary's people could convince everyone of this, yet she could still fail to win the nomination, meaning that Obama will enter the general election wounded, perhaps mortally. It's the worst possible cirmcumstances for the Democrats.
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Its what was supposed to happen in Penn. Its 1 state.
 
Yankee23Fan said:
This really is fun. This is way the primary system was supposed to work. No foregone conclusions. Regular old daily political wrangling.At some level, we should cherish this. It hasn't happened since the 60's, and I can gaurantee it won't happen again if the powers that be can help it.
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Indeed.It's a lot of fun watching Keith Olberman stumble over having to call a Hillary victory.
 
Yankee23Fan said:
This really is fun. This is way the primary system was supposed to work. No foregone conclusions. Regular old daily political wrangling.At some level, we should cherish this. It hasn't happened since the 60's, and I can gaurantee it won't happen again if the powers that be can help it.
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Close games are only enjoyable if your team wins at the end :wall: , otherwise they're heartbreaking.But I agree, it's historic, and it's pretty cool that two candidates are so evenly matched in support (at least close) at this stage in the race. I think there are a lot of reasons that have yet to be analyzed that will make this an election rich for people mining information on the current status of race and sex relations in the US and how far we've come, areas of the country that have overcome issues...seriously, it'll be great once it's all over to look back over the data and get a picture of democratic voters all over the country.
 
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53% to 47% clinton

just changed

56% to 44% clinton.

3% reporting (46,779 to 36,395)

57% to 43% clinton (48,477 to 37,322)

 
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She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win."

If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?

 
Anything under a double digit win would be yet another nail in the HRC campaign coffin. They can spin it however they want, but dropping from a 20%+ margin to under 10 is not a good sign for any campaign

 
timschochet said:
She has an argument. You might not like it, but she does. It involves the Superdelegates, and it's a very simple argument, three words she will say over and over: "He can't win." If I was a superdelegate, this victory would make me wonder. Can he?
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She has every right to stay until she has no mathematical chance remaining. Nothing wrong with that.
 
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