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*** OFFICIAL Blue Jays vs. Royals ALCS thread: Is it 1985 already? *** (1 Viewer)

Ugly, ugly start for KC. I had a bad feeling about this game, but I've had a bad feeling about every game since the start of the ALDS.

 
Something's off with Cueto's mechanics. Not getting the drop he was getting against Houston. After he threw a pitch, he would ape his motion, trying to figure out what went wrong.

All credit to Toronto pouncing on his mistakes and knocking them all over the field.

 
Who are the announcers on the Canadian broadcast? We'll give you Harold Reynolds as a sign of goodwill.

 
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?

 
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
I say this being well aware Dickey is more than capable of a 6-run inning himself, but I still like the Jays side of the starting matchup tomorrow.

 
Northern Voice said:
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
I say this being well aware Dickey is more than capable of a 6-run inning himself, but I still like the Jays side of the starting matchup tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Young had a decent season, better in almost every statistic than Dickey's except for FIP where they were effectively equal. Young was aided by a ridiculous .212 BABIP but I don't view BABIP as random for pitchers as for hitters. Young's career BABIP is almost 50 points under the MLB averages (over 1179 IP) for the same period.

If this was a regular season matchup, I wouldn't start either one of them in fantasy.

 
Eephus said:
Northern Voice said:
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
I say this being well aware Dickey is more than capable of a 6-run inning himself, but I still like the Jays side of the starting matchup tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Young had a decent season, better in almost every statistic than Dickey's except for FIP where they were effectively equal. Young was aided by a ridiculous .212 BABIP but I don't view BABIP as random for pitchers as for hitters. Young's career BABIP is almost 50 points under the MLB averages (over 1179 IP) for the same period.

If this was a regular season matchup, I wouldn't start either one of them in fantasy.
Click to expand...
Was he good enough that we won't get a graphic of black Chris Young with his stats somewhere tomorrow?

 
Eephus said:
Northern Voice said:
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
I say this being well aware Dickey is more than capable of a 6-run inning himself, but I still like the Jays side of the starting matchup tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Young had a decent season, better in almost every statistic than Dickey's except for FIP where they were effectively equal. Young was aided by a ridiculous .212 BABIP but I don't view BABIP as random for pitchers as for hitters. Young's career BABIP is almost 50 points under the MLB averages (over 1179 IP) for the same period.

If this was a regular season matchup, I wouldn't start either one of them in fantasy.
Click to expand...
I was a little surprised to see Young get the call over Medlen as Medlen was better at keeping the ball in the stadium, but Medlen was also effective enough in middle and long relief to pitch out of the pen.

Duffy was not an option. He got demoted from the rotation late in the season, and Toronto's right-heavy bats do not play to Duffy's strengths.

Kudos to Medlen for taking one for the team and saving the bulk of the bullpen for tomorrow and Thursday. If a win tonight wasn't a possibility, not having to use Davis or Herrera just to end the game was a nice consolation.

 
Northern Voice said:
Eephus said:
Northern Voice said:
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
I say this being well aware Dickey is more than capable of a 6-run inning himself, but I still like the Jays side of the starting matchup tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Young had a decent season, better in almost every statistic than Dickey's except for FIP where they were effectively equal. Young was aided by a ridiculous .212 BABIP but I don't view BABIP as random for pitchers as for hitters. Young's career BABIP is almost 50 points under the MLB averages (over 1179 IP) for the same period.

If this was a regular season matchup, I wouldn't start either one of them in fantasy.
Click to expand...
Was he good enough that we won't get a graphic of black Chris Young with his stats somewhere tomorrow?
Click to expand...
I looked up Young's B-R page to see what his starter/reliever splits were this year. I somehow managed to load the Chris B. Young page twice before getting the right one.

 
I expect the Royals to lose today, for Volquez to win game 5.. and up 3-2 with 6/7 at home seems good enough for me.

Of course... I'd love for Dickey's knuckler to be horrific today and for the Royals to get a big win to go up 3-1.

2-1 is where I thought this series would be right now... except i thought the Royals would lose to Price and that Cuety would be strong.

 
Ok, so that liner to CF was ruled a catch and Perez scored on a sac fly. Here's my question though...

What if it had initially been ruled a hit, and Perez didn't tag up, and just scored on what appeared to be a single. But after the Jays review it, it's ruled a catch. You can't send Perez back to third base right? I mean couldn't he conceivably say that he would have tagged up if it had been ruled a catch, but he went directly home because he thought it was going to be a hit and it was then ruled a hit? Just wondering, cause it seems like that could open a can of worms.

 
You know who I'm not going to take #### talk from? The self-proclaimed Cards fan who also likes the Royals and showed up when his team was up 2-0.

That said Royals have been better, can't argue that.

 
Pumped for tomorrow. Last 12 or so innings have been Royal dominant. Edison should be loose for tomorrow.

 
Nugget said:
Pumped for tomorrow. Last 12 or so innings have been Royal dominant. Edison should be loose for tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Liked how Yost managed Young today, and hope he's open to tracking Volquez the same way tomorrow. No need to let Donaldson and Bautista get a third at-bat against him. Unless he's pitching like he did in Game 1, but that seems like too much to ask.
 
Cliff Clavin said:
tjnc09 said:
Cliff Clavin said:
tjnc09 said:
That Blue Jays offense...one of the best ever. Hey, at least they improved from being shut out.
Click to expand...
Good shtick Harold :thumbup: Still waiting for you to explain what an offense built for the playoffs is.
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Blue Jays are down 0-2 schtick boy. :thumbup:
Click to expand...
Yep. All because they hit too many homers during the regular season. Wish they didn't do that. Maybe they'll play Pennington instead of Donaldson next game to get a player built for the playoffs in the lineup.
Click to expand...
I saw your boy Pennington out there... pitching because they were down 12 runs lol

 
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
My comment about power hitting teams was a secondary point in my post about how I thought Vegas lined playoff series. Toronto opened -150 (KC +130) which translates to a 58% chance to advance. I have always felt that number is inflated because of the public's perception about teams who are "power hitting".

I would have been happy to explain myself why I thought KC was much better for the postseason if Cliff simply asked instead of having a meltdown. I didn't really prepare my post in anticipation someone would have an issue with it.

 
tjnc09 said:
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
My comment about power hitting teams was a secondary point in my post about how I thought Vegas lined playoff series. Toronto opened -150 (KC +130) which translates to a 58% chance to advance. I have always felt that number is inflated because of the public's perception about teams who are "power hitting". I would have been happy to explain myself why I thought KC was much better for the postseason if Cliff simply asked instead of having a meltdown. I didn't really prepare my post in anticipation someone would have an issue with it.
Click to expand...
Did you read what I posted about post season myths, or just disappear and show up when the Royals were up 3-1?

 
Northern Voice said:
tjnc09 said:
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
My comment about power hitting teams was a secondary point in my post about how I thought Vegas lined playoff series. Toronto opened -150 (KC +130) which translates to a 58% chance to advance. I have always felt that number is inflated because of the public's perception about teams who are "power hitting".I would have been happy to explain myself why I thought KC was much better for the postseason if Cliff simply asked instead of having a meltdown. I didn't really prepare my post in anticipation someone would have an issue with it.
Click to expand...
Did you read what I posted about post season myths, or just disappear and show up when the Royals were up 3-1?
Click to expand...
That doesn't even make sense. It would make sense if I said the Royals were better and then disappeared because the Jays were up 3-1. I haven't really seen anything yet to suggest I was wrong, so no, I have no reason to disappear.

I have read that Grantland article before. I personally think it is dumb.

 
tjnc09 said:
Northern Voice said:
tjnc09 said:
Northern Voice said:
Let's say I actually did believe in Royals magic and Jays offense miraculously drying up because they hit too many home runs, doubles and singles, and tjnc thinks that's not how teams win in the playoffs... I still need someone to explain to me in what world Chris Young is expected to fair well against Toronto tomorrow. Was there debate in KC land about someone else (Duffy/Medlen) getting that start?
Click to expand...
My comment about power hitting teams was a secondary point in my post about how I thought Vegas lined playoff series. Toronto opened -150 (KC +130) which translates to a 58% chance to advance. I have always felt that number is inflated because of the public's perception about teams who are "power hitting".I would have been happy to explain myself why I thought KC was much better for the postseason if Cliff simply asked instead of having a meltdown. I didn't really prepare my post in anticipation someone would have an issue with it.
Click to expand...
Did you read what I posted about post season myths, or just disappear and show up when the Royals were up 3-1?
Click to expand...
That doesn't even make sense. It would make sense if I said the Royals were better and then disappeared because the Jays were up 3-1. I haven't really seen anything yet to suggest I was wrong, so no, I have no reason to disappear.I have read that Grantland article before. I personally think it is dumb.
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Well, you do post on a message board, so it stands to reason you know better than Joe Sheehan, Ben Lindbergh and Russel Carleton...
 
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Is there a real Royaks fan on this board? Dickinson made it crystal clear to me he's a St. Louis fan. Tjnc has a SF Giants avatar. The dentist maybe? But true to his profession, he only showed up to collect the spoils.

I guess I'll go with bud29... at least he has a KC Chiefs avatar.

 
Northern Voice said:
Is there a real Royaks fan on this board? Dickinson made it crystal clear to me he's a St. Louis fan. Tjnc has a SF Giants avatar. The dentist maybe? But true to his profession, he only showed up to collect the spoils.

I guess I'll go with bud29... at least he has a KC Chiefs avatar.
Click to expand...
There is a Royals thread not too far down. Nugget has a third of the posts in that thread so I'm pretty sure he's a Royals fan.

 
I'll go on record that the Royals are a ~.520 true talent team that has luckboxed its way into back to back WS appearances. Not likely but after 100+ seasons of baseball it was bound to happen at some point.

 
Northern Voice said:
Bruce Dickinson said:
Northern Voice said:
You know who I'm not going to take #### talk from? The self-proclaimed Cards fan who also likes the Royals and showed up when his team was up 2-0.

That said Royals have been better, can't argue that.
Click to expand...
Whoops. I think we hit a nerve.
Click to expand...
Who's your third string team?
Click to expand...
The Twins. I went to high school and undergrad in Minnesota, so most of the friends I made during that stage of life are Twins fans. Don't follow them daily, but went to 2-3 Twins games a year when I lived there.Born in STL. Third-generation Cardinals fan on my dad's side of the family. Went to over 200 games at Busch II, drove over 250 miles to see NLDS Game 5 in 2013, made same drive a couple weeks later for Game 5 of the 2013 World Series. Follow them daily, even during offseason. Seen them play in 10 different MLB parks (past and present) and three spring-training stadiums.

Lived in KC metro for about 12 years. Friends here are Royals fans. Really fun team to watch, even on TV. Usually catch them 2-3 times in person.

Any other questions?

 
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So eyeballing Lindbergh's research, I don't think the sample he's working with / the difference in offense decrease between HR-heavy and HR-light teams is relevant. Note that the difference in decreases between the original BP article and the more recent Grantland article, and how much the diff. shrinks when you add 2012 and 2013:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17470

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoff-myths-to-ignore/

Also note that going from 1995 to 2013, you're sitting astride two very radically different eras of baseball. The HGH crackdown occurred during that time, as did the rapid increase in fastball velocity, which has coincided with more swings and misses, resulting in more K's, resulting in fewer runs overall. Whether those factors work in favor of one camp or another, I don't know, but it seems like they should be accounted for.

tl;dr, :shrug:

 
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