Official Dominate Your Fantasy League Topic (1 Viewer)

[The Ref]

(Granted it's a tad early at this point)

I want to try and have a topic that we can use to discuss indentifying players who will help us win out fantasy leagues this year. I think there are several identifiable "player types" that can help a given team win. I'll try and start a list of "player types" that we can work on, try and define what I think these "player types" are, and give a few examples of who I am looking at for 2009.

Serviceable Catcher - (Think Navarro/Schoppach 2008, someone you grab late who is OK)

?

Upside Speed - (Think Gomez/Ellsbury 2008)

?

Upside Power - (Think Hamilton 2008)

?

Upside K's Pitcher - (Think Volquez/Greinke 2008)

Price

Kershaw

Upside WHIP Pitcher - (Think Bush 2008)

?

Upside SV's Pitcher - (Think Sherrill 2008)

Qualls

Breakout Pitcher - (Think Lincecum 2008)

Billingsley

Breakout Hitter - (Think Quentin/Braun 2008)

Rios

 

[Finless]

I usually handle these threads around here.

Rios? He's been breaking out for half a decade now. And I'd say Braun's breakout was 2007.

 

[ScottNorwood]

I like Nelson Cruz for a breakout power hitter.

 

[Oh Yes!]

bj upton might go 40-40 this year

 

[MAC_32]

Did my first rough draft watching the games Sunday, still trying to figure out who's being slept on by the masses and who's not. Probably get back to it after the new year.

The three catchers The Ref identified were the ones highlighted on my sheet, so they'll probably be over valued soon. I'll be curious to see Ryan Doumit's market value. Jeff Clement has upside, but didn't do much in short stints last year. If someone wins the Texas competition outright they may be a nice late round find. If Pablo Sandoval qualifies in your league he'd be another one to eye too.

James Loney's my 1B sleeper right now, I like Chris Davis but I was reading his name way too many places during Sunday research, may be over valued. Huge upside, but carries a ton of risk. Ryan Garko and Billy Butler may be post hype breakouts.

Alexei Ramirez is the high upside MI, not a sleeper by any means but he's a nice early round risk. I know others have been burned by Kendrick and Weeks in the past (guilty) but they may be cheap enough to take a chance on...again. I, too, like Lopez, the Jose variety. Depending how Aaron Hill recovers from his concussion he's one that will be there late. If I don't get Alexei or Pedroia I'll probably find a way to get Casilla on my team to pair with one of my upside picks, not much competition for his job and he'll get you plenty of steals + runs with a good average.

Alex Gordon may be a post hype breakout, seems most have forgotten about him, to a lesser degree Encarnacion. If room is made for Ian Stewart look out for him. I'm a glutton for punishment and will probably add Blalock in a league or two again.

Denard Span seems like an aftertought to many, he's shaping up to be a bargain. Lastings Milledge, Nelson Cruz, Jason Kubel, Justin Upton, Elijah Dukes, Chris Dickerson, and Ryan Spilboroghs too. Lots of late round value in the OF. I'm still trying to figure out what happened to Upton's power last year, we know it's there, he could be a stud just hasn't put it together for a full season.

Under valued pitchers - Cliff Lee, Billingsley, Greineke, Meche, Gallardo, Harang, Myers, Cueto, Scott Baker. Lots of risky pitchers with potential upside (Verlander, Buchholz, Bondo, McGowan, Wandy, Jurrjens, Unit), Snell may be worth a late flier to see if he fixed his control issues. We all know the youth that's out there - Morrow, Kershaw, Scherzer, Price, etc. We'll see come March who's going to be taken too early and who may slip later than they should.

As always there's lots of upside late in relief pitchers. We know who the good one's are, it's all a matter of identifying who will get save opps.

 

[Bogart]

I like Nelson Cruz for a breakout power hitter.

This guy knows things.At this point I can really only discuss all things Rangers, but I really like Cruz as a sleeper source of power. Davis will hit better, but like others said, he will likely be that overhyped sleeper that will cause him to go to early.This Ranger lineup has the potential to put up huge numbers this season, so every everyday player will have value. Salty will go early, but I really like Teagarden, esp in leagues with 2 catchers starting. He should get more ABs than the normal platooon catcher (mix in at DH) and could be a real steal late in the draft.Kinsler and Hamilton will go probably way too early to be considered a value. I like a healthy Young to have some value, and the guy to watch out of ST is Blalock. He has every chance to be healthy and stay healthy by being the full time DH.

 

[cheese]

bj upton might go 40-40 this year

I agree with this. I think we may have been a year early on predicting his stats this year. Next year is probably his year to become elite.Also, for bounce back candidates, I think Aaron Harang is a very safe bet to be 2005-2007 Harang.Generally speaking, the last few years it seems to have easy to throw together a good pitching staff without high picks. I know a lot of us played in leagues where the pitching categories were dominated by the guys who owned Lee, Dursherer, and Volquez. I don't feel the same way about hitters right now. I plan to focus my early rounds even more on hitters than usual.

 

[The Ref]

I usually handle these threads around here.

Rios? He's been breaking out for half a decade now. And I'd say Braun's breakout was 2007.

Sorry to step on your toes. As for Rios, he had a decent power year two years ago and a decent speed year last year while hitting ~.300. I think this is the year he puts it all together and 30/30/.320 is in the cards.

Fair point about Braun, but he was able to do it for a whole year.

 

[cheese]

(Granted it's a tad early at this point)

I want to try and have a topic that we can use to discuss indentifying players who will help us win out fantasy leagues this year. I think there are several identifiable "player types" that can help a given team win. I'll try and start a list of "player types" that we can work on, try and define what I think these "player types" are, and give a few examples of who I am looking at for 2009.

Upside Power - (Think Hamilton 2008)

Chris Davis

Edwin Encarnacion

Breakout Hitter - (Think Quentin/Braun 2008)

Jose Lopez

Joey Votto

Andre Ethier (although you can argue all of them had their breakout in 2008 to some extent)

I think Joey Votto is going to be huge this year. I can see .310 28 110 this year. The problem with him is that you have to be willing to stick out April. He's said multiple times that he hates the early season and it usually takes him much longer than normal to start reading pitches every season. The stats reflected this a bit last year and IIRC in the minors as well.Also, as a Reds fan I have no idea how you see Edwin as an upside power candidate, but I hope you're right.

 

[MAC_32]

Been digging through some data today, Matt Kemp may be an early-mid round steal.

Some players I'm probably going to avoid unless I read something that leads me to believe otherwise - Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, and Scott Kazmir.

 

[The Ghost of Common]

Been digging through some data today, Matt Kemp may be an early-mid round steal.Some players I'm probably going to avoid unless I read something that leads me to believe otherwise - Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, and Scott Kazmir.

How come you'd avoid Aramis? Just curious.In my dynasty league, Kemp was just drafted in the mid 2nd round. I thought it was early, but I guess it's the dynasty thing. I did end up with Aramis is Round 2 (16 teams), so that's why I'm curious.

 

[MAC_32]

Been digging through some data today, Matt Kemp may be an early-mid round steal.Some players I'm probably going to avoid unless I read something that leads me to believe otherwise - Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, and Scott Kazmir.

How come you'd avoid Aramis? Just curious.In my dynasty league, Kemp was just drafted in the mid 2nd round. I thought it was early, but I guess it's the dynasty thing. I did end up with Aramis is Round 2 (16 teams), so that's why I'm curious.

Minor concern - age, he has likely peaked but is nowhere near the danger zone, limits his upside but isn't a reason for too much concernGreater concern #1 - his HR/FB% has increased each of the last two seasons to the 'red flag' zone at 20+% so while his HR #'s appear to be consistent (albeit they have tailed a bit) they may be a bit skewed. If you're familiar at all with trueHome Runs (tHR) he should have only hit 18 in 2008. Not what you're drafting in the first few rounds.Greater concern #2 - decreasing contact rate each of the last three seasons + inflated BABIP, his avg decreased a decent amount in 08 and could take an even greater drop in 09In the end I think you're looking at a similar avg and a lot less HR's (285/15), similar HR's and a lot lower avg (25/255), or somewhere in the middle (20/270).Numbers that are not worth a top 30 selection in my book.As for Kemp going 2nd in a dyno, that makes total sense and about where I'd value him. Redrafts are where you may get him for a bargain, I think there's a chance he puts up top 5 OF #'s this year with a high floor as well. Early mocks have him as a border line top 50 pick, I'd gladly take him a round early if presented with the opportunity.

 

[Angry Beavers]

(Granted it's a tad early at this point)

I want to try and have a topic that we can use to discuss indentifying players who will help us win out fantasy leagues this year. I think there are several identifiable "player types" that can help a given team win. I'll try and start a list of "player types" that we can work on, try and define what I think these "player types" are, and give a few examples of who I am looking at for 2009.

Upside Power - (Think Hamilton 2008)

Chris Davis

Edwin Encarnacion

Breakout Hitter - (Think Quentin/Braun 2008)

Jose Lopez

Joey Votto

Andre Ethier (although you can argue all of them had their breakout in 2008 to some extent)

I think Joey Votto is going to be huge this year. I can see .310 28 110 this year. The problem with him is that you have to be willing to stick out April. He's said multiple times that he hates the early season and it usually takes him much longer than normal to start reading pitches every season. The stats reflected this a bit last year and IIRC in the minors as well.Also, as a Reds fan I have no idea how you see Edwin as an upside power candidate, but I hope you're right.

Antoher player if you can withstand the typical April Swoon: Adam laRoche 1b Pit: The guy typically is AWFUL in April, gets it going in May and is a man on fire from June on.

 

[Angry Beavers]

I usually handle these threads around here.

Rios? He's been breaking out for half a decade now. And I'd say Braun's breakout was 2007.

Sorry to step on your toes. As for Rios, he had a decent power year two years ago and a decent speed year last year while hitting ~.300. I think this is the year he puts it all together and 30/30/.320 is in the cards.

Fair point about Braun, but he was able to do it for a whole year.

How is Rios going to get his power back? He is going from trying to be a power hitter to hitting at the top of lineup and trying to get on base. His avg and SB numbers are good, but I have a tough time seeing him hit over 20 HR's let alone 30.

 

[harrycarey]

What are some good fantasy baseball sites to look at?

Also in a keeper league would you keep Chris Davis over David Ortiz, or is Ortiz gonna bounce back?

 

[ajopiela]

Go with Chris Davis. Ortiz might have a better year THIS year...but Davis is legit.

As for my strategy...Im going back to the basics. Im going to trust that i know the players and not attempt to choreograph my draft like i did last year.

Im not going to be afraid to go for pitching early after being burned by my attempt to create a "Lima" staff last year.

 

[Bobcat10]

Good thread..

On the Cruz bandwagon.....I think alot are going to be as we near the season.

 

[The Ref]

What are some good fantasy baseball sites to look at?Also in a keeper league would you keep Chris Davis over David Ortiz, or is Ortiz gonna bounce back?

I went with RotoLab as a software last year with baseballHQ stats. Did an AL Roto, NL Roto, and Mixed Points. FInished 3d, 6th. and 1st. NL draft was good too but all my hitters died.

 

[The Ref]

What are some good fantasy baseball sites to look at?Also in a keeper league would you keep Chris Davis over David Ortiz, or is Ortiz gonna bounce back?

I went with RotoLab as a software last year with baseballHQ stats. Did an AL Roto, NL Roto, and Mixed Points. FInished 3d, 6th. and 1st. NL draft was good too but all my hitters died.

Also - the baseball mags this year are trash. I have bought a sporting news baseball evey year since 1996. This years version may not be worth it for bathroom time. Half the Free Agents are not where they need to be and the projections just seem off to me - FWTIW.

 

[Bogart]

What are some good fantasy baseball sites to look at?Also in a keeper league would you keep Chris Davis over David Ortiz, or is Ortiz gonna bounce back?

RotoJunkie.com is great.Keep Davis. The guy is going to be a monster.

 

[MAC_32]

I'm beginning to think Davis may be this year's over hyped prospect.

 

[MAC_32]

The more research I do on Shin-Soo Choo the more I like him as a late round bargain this year. Given 500 AB's he could conceivably push 20/20 and his game seems to be setup for the 5 hole in the Indians lineup so his counting stats should do you well too, on top of a good but not great avg. The big question will be if LaPorta gets hot in the spring will he be brought up to the majors and who of Choo and Francisco will he replace? Small risk for a big potential late round reward, I think it's well worth it.

 

[Bogart]

I'm beginning to think Davis may be this year's over hyped prospect.

Davis and Nelson Cruz will both be overhyped, but of the two I trust that Davis will come closer to what people will expect over Cruz.

 

[Captain Hook]

What are some good fantasy baseball sites to look at?Also in a keeper league would you keep Chris Davis over David Ortiz, or is Ortiz gonna bounce back?

Even IF Ortiz rebounds fully, Davis has an advantage with 1B and 3B eligibility as opposed to tying up your UT/DH slot so early in the draftplease come visit at www.fantasybaseball.comThere is a special offer for FBF which you can find in an earlier thread on fantasy websites, but basically I will give all FBG a money back quarantee - PM when you are ready to sign up - PVH

 

[MAC_32]

I'm beginning to think Davis may be this year's over hyped prospect.

Davis and Nelson Cruz will both be overhyped, but of the two I trust that Davis will come closer to what people will expect over Cruz.

He's safer as he's almost assured full time PT whereas Cruz will be competing for PT, but that's why he's a top 100 pick and Cruz is a 12th-15th round pick. When all is said and done neither will likely be in my deep league rosters, but there's a good chance I get either/both in my shallower leagues. I tend to be a greater risk taker in those drafts.

 

[Bobcat10]

The more research I do on Shin-Soo Choo the more I like him as a late round bargain this year. Given 500 AB's he could conceivably push 20/20 and his game seems to be setup for the 5 hole in the Indians lineup so his counting stats should do you well too, on top of a good but not great avg. The big question will be if LaPorta gets hot in the spring will he be brought up to the majors and who of Choo and Francisco will he replace? Small risk for a big potential late round reward, I think it's well worth it.

To answer your question, I'd say Francisco. Although an early funk (like last year) from Garko could yield ABs at 1B for a hot LaPorta. I think they take it slow with LaPorta though, that's how they do things.I like Choo as well this year. He seems like a gap hitting machine, lots of doubles, and like you say 20/20 potential is possible with a .270 or .280 average. Thinking about the 5 hole...not sure on that...maybe 6th or 7th. I've even seen him 3rd on some websites. Depends where they slot Hafner b/c Wedge won't put Choo and Hafner together, at least early in the season.