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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (21 Viewers)

I'd need a first the other way to give turn McKinnon into Chubb.
This is me. I'm not a "wait and see" RB guy.

It's McKinnon's 3 down show in SF. Chubb's got Hyde & Duke ahead of him. Duke is significant pass game obstacle. Hyde IMO is at least a 2018 obstacle. I wouldn't be surprised if the pick could just be turned into Chubb+ after the season.

 
This is me. I'm not a "wait and see" RB guy.

It's McKinnon's 3 down show in SF. Chubb's got Hyde & Duke ahead of him. Duke is significant pass game obstacle. Hyde IMO is at least a 2018 obstacle. I wouldn't be surprised if the pick could just be turned into Chubb+ after the season.


I'd need a first the other way to give turn McKinnon into Chubb.


Here's the thing, though.  McKinnon is already 26.  Like it or not, he's almost assuredly a depreciating asset regardless of what he does after this year.

Best case scenario, McKinnon puts up top 5-10 RB numbers (let's face it, he's not outscoring Gurley, Bell, D. Johnson, Zeke, Fournette, Barkley and I can probably list a couple others as well).  And even if he does that, his value almost definitely won't go up from where it is now when he's entering his age 27 year.  At best, it's the same where it is now.

Looking at Chubb, worst case scenario is Hyde and Duke get most of the playing time this year and Chubb doesn't get a chance to do anything.  But, heading into 2019, Duke is a free agent next year and Hyde will be entering his age 29 season.  Chubb still retains a ton of value without doing anything.  Or even if he does and doesn't do much, he's a good enough prospect that he gets a pass after just one year (look at Mixon).

Given those 2 scenarios (best case for JM and worst case for Chubb), it's very likely Chubb has the same or very similar value as McKinnon just one year from now. 

However, in almost any other scenario, Chubb > McKinnon in as little as one year, if not earlier.  If McKinnon is just average (or even somewhat above average but not great), gets hurt, loses his job, or SF drafts someone next year (because it's not as if JM is a non-replaceable stud talent) AND/OR Chubb does anything this year and then it's a massive loss for the McKinnon side. 

This is a dynasty thread and 1 year in dynasty is a relatively short time.  This isn't a matter of having to wait 2-3 years for situations to likely change.  So unless McKinnon is the difference between winning a title than not this year (if you were to have kept Chubb), then paying Chubb+ for J. McKinnon is going to lose 9/10 times.  Look at recent highly drafted RBs that had to sit behind vets or didn't do much (D. Henry in 2016, Mixon in 2017), and their value has only gone up as time has passed.  Yet recent similar 26 yo RBs with starting jobs that actually did well (Hyde, L. Murray) have only gone down, especially when their teams drafted guys to replace them.

IMO, given the value I've seen him fetch, McKinnon is probably the most ideal sell-high of any player heading into 2018 before he steps foot on the field.  It's amazing what he's getting as a guy who's averaged 3.8 and 3.4 ypc the last 2 years, career 4.0 ypc, has NEVER had 160 carries in a single season and has never scored more than 3 TDs now heading into his 5th year.  Who is 26.  Who wasn't drafted that high.  Who is going to a team that was in last place in the NFC West, a very difficult defensive division.  He is just SCREAMING to be sold this offseason for the prices he's fetching.

 
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Dynasty PPR. This one is stinky...

Team A gave up Gordon, Josh CLE WR and Maclin, Jeremy FA WR
Team B gave up Drake, Kenyan MIA RB and Jones, Ronald TBB RB

 
I'd need a first the other way to give turn McKinnon into Chubb.
Fair enough. I think McKinnon is no better than journeyman whereas I’ve been waiting for Chubb’s time for years and appreciate his injuries that allowed me to get him where I did. He’s a true horse to me and I can be patient a year. 

 
Fair enough. I think McKinnon is no better than journeyman whereas I’ve been waiting for Chubb’s time for years and appreciate his injuries that allowed me to get him where I did. He’s a true horse to me and I can be patient a year.
I can respect that people like Chubb over McKinnon all day, I think it's wrong but I can respect it. . I'm obviously not a Chubb guy myself, was not big on him before the draft and less so after so for sure it's not a situation where I forecast patience being rewarded. But the mere fact a decent amount of people, myself being one, would prefer McKinnon straight up over Chubb just makes me think giving up a first round pick was to much to pay.

 
Looking at Chubb, worst case scenario is Hyde and Duke get most of the playing time this year and Chubb doesn't get a chance to do anything.  But, heading into 2019, Duke is a free agent next year and Hyde will be entering his age 29 season.  Chubb still retains a ton of value without doing anything.  Or even if he does and doesn't do much, he's a good enough prospect that he gets a pass after just one year (look at Mixon).
Is Hyde aging in Dog years ?

 
It depends where you look. Some sources say he's 26 turning 27 in September. I have no idea which is correct. There's a ton of sources showing each. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=carlos+hyde+birthdate
Hmm, interesting.

NFL.com has him born in 1990 and so does Rotoworld. And your link, as well. I'd say 1990 is probably right based on those, which means he's turning 28 in a few months and turns 29 next year.

Either way, he's unlikely to be a roadblock more than 1 year. 28 or 29, point is relatively unchanged.

 
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12 team Superflex League:     1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 Superflex 2 Flex 1 K 1 DEF  25 man roster 1 Taxi squad

Team A gave         Devin Funchess, Jamison Crowder, 1.9 and 2.9

Team B gave:        Davante Adams and Kelvin Benjamin

 
12 team Superflex League:     1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 Superflex 2 Flex 1 K 1 DEF  25 man roster 1 Taxi squad

Team A gave         Devin Funchess, Jamison Crowder, 1.9 and 2.9

Team B gave:        Davante Adams and Kelvin Benjamin
I would take Adams but I like those players on the other side too

 
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12 team Superflex League:     1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 Superflex 2 Flex 1 K 1 DEF  25 man roster 1 Taxi squad

Team A gave         Devin Funchess, Jamison Crowder, 1.9 and 2.9

Team B gave:        Davante Adams and Kelvin Benjamin
1.9 has more value in SF, but I will still take Adams.

 
gianmarco said:
Hmm, interesting.

NFL.com has him born in 1990 and so does Rotoworld. And your link, as well. I'd say 1990 is probably right based on those, which means he's turning 28 in a few months and turns 29 next year.

Either way, he's unlikely to be a roadblock more than 1 year. 28 or 29, point is relatively unchanged.
It is actually a pretty big difference.  Stupid MFL looks like they are wrong which is the site I use most of the time to look up players age.  I have been under the assumption for the past few years he was 1 year younger and had I known he was 1 year older I would have tried harder to trade him last year.  That ship has sailed now.

 
FFPC trade the guy trading away his 1st was the 1.01 pick this year but didn't own his own pick since he had traded it away last year.

Meredith, Cameron (WR), NO
Collins, Alex (RB), BAL
2019 2nd Round Draft Pick

For

2019 1st Round Draft Pick
2019 3rd Round Draft Pick

 
FFPC trade the guy trading away his 1st was the 1.01 pick this year but didn't own his own pick since he had traded it away last year.

Meredith, Cameron (WR), NO
Collins, Alex (RB), BAL
2019 2nd Round Draft Pick

For

2019 1st Round Draft Pick
2019 3rd Round Draft Pick
Kind of tricky because unlike a normal league 1.01 doesn't mean that he was a bad team that is necessarily likely to be a high pick again.  It likely means he was a borderline playoff team that just made the cut, and these guys could push him over into the playoffs and the 1.08-1.10 range

I think the trade is reasonably fair.

 
Kind of tricky because unlike a normal league 1.01 doesn't mean that he was a bad team that is necessarily likely to be a high pick again.  It likely means he was a borderline playoff team that just made the cut, and these guys could push him over into the playoffs and the 1.08-1.10 range

I think the trade is reasonably fair.
I’ll take the first.  Could be 1.3 or 1.4 just as easily 

 
It is actually a pretty big difference.  Stupid MFL looks like they are wrong which is the site I use most of the time to look up players age.  I have been under the assumption for the past few years he was 1 year younger and had I known he was 1 year older I would have tried harder to trade him last year.  That ship has sailed now.
Considering how, in this thread, many believe McCoy just falls off the tracks at 29, yeah, not thinking Hyde going to have much value.

We bought Hyde in a few spots last year feeling pretty confident he would add 220-230 PPR to our lineup which he did and the cost wasn't prohibitive; however, Hyde is the exact type of player that gets replaced when a more talented option is on the roster. Kept him in two spots where even pre-draft we weren't getting more than 2.5, and then landed Chubb in those same two spots. 

I'm thinking Hyde scores between 150-170 PPR next season. Not going to outright disappear, but not going to be a guy you want to start on a championship team, and heading in to next off-season won't be worth more than an early 3rd round rookie pick. 

 
14 team ppr QB, rb, WR, TE, def, flex, flex, flex, flex

Team A receives Kenyan Drake, 1.14

Team B receives Devonta Freeman
That's about right. Depends on who is available at #14 on whether I'd make the deal. Probably wouldn't make it blindly and I have both of these guys in a few spots.

 
FFPC trade the guy trading away his 1st was the 1.01 pick this year but didn't own his own pick since he had traded it away last year.

Meredith, Cameron (WR), NO
Collins, Alex (RB), BAL
2019 2nd Round Draft Pick

For

2019 1st Round Draft Pick
2019 3rd Round Draft Pick
Doesn't matter what the 1st ends up being, the 1st is far more valuable. 

 
northern exposure said:
After the picks were made, the trade results were:

Team 1 gave: Calvin Ridley and Sam Darnold

Team 2 gave: Ronald Jones and Antonio Callaway
I wouldn't have gone Ridley at 11, the deal would look a lot different for me if I got a player I liked at 11. As it stands with the players involved, RoJo wins handily.

 
12 team Superflex League:     1 QB 1 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 Superflex 2 Flex 1 K 1 DEF  25 man roster 1 Taxi squad

Team A gave         Devin Funchess, Jamison Crowder, 1.9 and 2.9

Team B gave:        Davante Adams and Kelvin Benjamin
I can see both sides. Slight lean to Adams unless the more pressing need was RB/QB. 

 
Considering how, in this thread, many believe McCoy just falls off the tracks at 29, yeah, not thinking Hyde going to have much value.
I am one who has McCoy falling off the tracks but McCoy's 29 is hardly comparable to when Hyde hits that age. Hyde has played 4 seasons to date and had around 750 touches.  McCoy is at 9 seasons and 2600 touches. Hyde will be a rotational RB again this year, or that's the plan. McCoy will once again be asked to carry an entire offense on his back, a feat made even more difficult than last year with the OL losses and what I believe will be major impact of losing Taylor.

 
I am one who has McCoy falling off the tracks but McCoy's 29 is hardly comparable to when Hyde hits that age. Hyde has played 4 seasons to date and had around 750 touches.  McCoy is at 9 seasons and 2600 touches. Hyde will be a rotational RB again this year, or that's the plan. McCoy will once again be asked to carry an entire offense on his back, a feat made even more difficult than last year with the OL losses and what I believe will be major impact of losing Taylor.
The "mileage" thing was debunked here a few years ago. In fact, it showed that guys with more carries lasted longer. Probably not because of the extra carries but because they are capable of those workload and that's why they received the heavy touches to begin with. Thus, when looking at 2 guys like Hyde and McCoy at same age given the difference in usage, McCoy is more likely to have more carries and have a bigger workload in age 29+ seasons.

 
The "mileage" thing was debunked here a few years ago. In fact, it showed that guys with more carries lasted longer. Probably not because of the extra carries but because they are capable of those workload and that's why they received the heavy touches to begin with. Thus, when looking at 2 guys like Hyde and McCoy at same age given the difference in usage, McCoy is more likely to have more carries and have a bigger workload in age 29+ seasons.
The more concerning thing with McCoy is that his efficiency dropped off so much last year.  1.4ypc less than the (albeit high) year before, and a career low in YPC at that.  That's typically a really bad signal for a 29 year old.

 
The "mileage" thing was debunked here a few years ago. In fact, it showed that guys with more carries lasted longer. Probably not because of the extra carries but because they are capable of those workload and that's why they received the heavy touches to begin with. Thus, when looking at 2 guys like Hyde and McCoy at same age given the difference in usage, McCoy is more likely to have more carries and have a bigger workload in age 29+ seasons.
You don't speak for me, that's an opinion not a fact.

 
The more concerning thing with McCoy is that his efficiency dropped off so much last year.  1.4ypc less than the (albeit high) year before, and a career low in YPC at that.  That's typically a really bad signal for a 29 year old.
No doubt. I wasn't trying to say he's going to do well or have some career resurgence. Just that he's more likely to get workload and be relevant based on the study I read, IIRC, than someone that has less career carries.

 

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