Hankmoody
Footballguy
Yeah I had some mathing issues there. I still prefer Landry based on his progression from year 1 to 3. I don't see Shepard having the same target opportunities in that offense.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (29 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Seems terrible on the surface, though I have no idea how much return yardage plays in to things.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I don't think we can say what Shepard's ceiling is, and while I like Landy better it's not like he's a guy that we can count on to keep putting up these numbers the rest of his career either. He's 24 and his arrow is already potentially pointing down somewhat. If Parker develops into a real WR1 (or they find another one) I'm not sure that Landry will even remain usable. It's not like Tannehill is putting up big enough numbers to support multiple good fantasy WRs and Landry thus far has just been a volume guy.
But the real difference here is that I think the 1.05 is MUCH better than 1.09. I think that's being overlooked in this. Obviously there are still a lot of unknowns but there seems to be a pretty consensus top 4, which means 1.05 is likely to be the tier 2 RB in the best situation. That will likely either be a late 1st round RB in a good situation with little competition (NYG?) or a 2nd round RB in a great situation (Indy/GB?).
Consider what that's been worth in previous years. Guys like Mark Ingram as late 1st round picks in situations to play early, or guys like Eddie Lacy as a 2nd rounder in Green Bay. These are guys that were top 2 picks on those merits and we may see the same this year available at 1.05.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes to all of this. I also highly value the 1.05 over the 1.09 because I might just be able to flip it and move up into those top 4. I do suspect that not too many people will be willing to trade back this year though.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
Forced to choose give me LandryCabinFever said:
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Return yards in my leagues equal about 2.5 PPG, which would have moved Hill from WR22 to WR9. So it's a pretty big impact, but it's still a landslide for Evans. I personally totally buy into Hill, but can't put him anywhere near Evans' value yet. 1.06 certainly doesn't close that gap. Reid can burn a fantasy asset in a flash, so I need to see it again from Hill before I'm putting a guy like Evans on the line for him.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
After the NFL draft i don't think there will be a tier break at 1.04. There are tons of solid RB's in this class and some of the "2nd" tier, who would be "1st" tier in many classes, will be gaining tons of value.
In fact i'll be shocked if there is a perceived tier break after 1.04 post NFL draft.
For a little context, in Zealots PPR Tyreek Hill finished WR6 with 267.23 points. Evans finished 2nd with 306.10.
What target volume do you expect him to get in year 2? Are you factoring in that Landry's days of 167 targets are over? Lazor is gone. Gase only gave him 131 and that is looking to further shrink with the addition of Julius Thomas. I expect both players to be around 120 next year. I expect Shepard to score more TDs, and it may be a bit presumptuous given his rookie year, but I expect him to have the higher YPR, too.
Slider
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Like the Sanders side. Agree with One More Rep that Sanders is a nice dynasty target right now when you factor in the solid floor and some real upside if Romo lands in Denver and can stay healthy.
Not huge on any of those RB's so to me Sanders is the best player in the trade and he's like free, put another way I view the pick as being on the wrong side.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'll buy that. That would make the 1.05 even more valuable in relation to the 1.09, if a perceived tier break will exist say at the 1.06 or 1.07 (arbitrary I know).ILUVBEER99 said:
Now I'm not saying this would go down, but imagine if you took the Shepard and 1.05 side and then flipped the 1.05 and Shepard for say the 1.02 and were able to get Fournette or Cook. Then in the end you would have given up Landry and the 1.09 for Fournette/Cook. Seems like a good deal to me. Admittedly I'm not a huge Landry fan.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
1.05/shepard probably doesn't even start the discussion on trading up into the top 2.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm sure they will. I just don't think his raw production--and his rookie season in general--tells me much about him. I still have questions and think he could go either way. I know what I'm getting from Landry in PPR formats, and that's valuable to me. I just don't see how their value is close, considering that.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
GTS. Shepard: February 10, 1993 (age 24 years) Landry: November 28, 1992 (age 24 years),
Landry's value is not tied to Tannehill. He's a target monster because he's consistently able to present quality targets at the first level--much like Brandon Marshall. The Dolphins were 26th in targets and he still commanded 131. His targets are fine. This with the offensive line destroyed by injuries and Matt Moore playing a quarter of the season. They weren't dipping so much as coming back down to earth after averaging 11+ over the first quarter of the season. He had 14 targets in the wildcard game, btw.
Sterling Shepard is more dynamic than Jarvis Landry?! For real? Jarvis Landry is one of the more dynamic receivers in the league with the ball in his hand. 40 time isn't everything.
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Warhogs
Footballguy
I'll still take Gio here. I'm not a believer in Dorsett so I'll drop from pick 8 to pick 12 for Gio.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I think you're seeing what you want in both cases. You assume you know what you're getting from Landry. I don't know that you can really know that...you know?
I could agree that neither guy's season can tell you about what to expect but it seems like a guy with a decent rookie year has a better chance of trending up than a veteran who is already had a decline in stats has of trending up.
He's a usable piece, low end RB2/high end RB3 type with some upside. That's worth a little, but this trade went down yesterday an FFPC league and I still can't get how Gio brought his back in return.
Team A Gave: Gio, ASJ, 3.9, 3.10, 2018 second(his own pick returned to him)
Team B gave: 1.11, Eddie Lacy, Marvin Jones, 18 4th round pick.
I"m as low on Lacy as anyone you will find and Marvin looks like a WR4 but I'd have thought 1.11 was enough when Gio is best player you are getting back.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't own Landry anywhere and do own Shepard. If it was about what I wanted to see, I'd be saying the opposite.I think you're seeing what you want in both cases. You assume you know what you're getting from Landry. I don't know that you can really know that...you know?
I could agree that neither guy's season can tell you about what to expect but it seems like a guy with a decent rookie year has a better chance of trending up than a veteran who is already had a decline in stats has of trending up.
Landry has a much bigger sample size. He's been a target hog with a high catch rate for 3 years. His numbers aren't trending down--the Dolphins just threw the ball a lot less this year due to injuries. They're not going to be bottom 5 in targets every year. I've been playign long enough to know that I don't know anything. Landry could be a 70/700/3 guy moving forward. But I'm confident enough to put my chips on him in a way that I'm not with Shepard. Shepard is still a huge "maybe" for me, where Landry is a very solid "probably".
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Those are good points.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
It would be helpful to know the rest of Team A's roster. Were Lacy and Jones likey cuts?
If so would not make much sense giving up a pick for Gio or ASJ but no I don't think either was likely to be cut since the team is not very good and I don't know anyone even in short FFPC rosters who would cut Lacy or not get something for Marvin in a trade.
One More Rep
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
FFPC
1.02 and Adrian Peterson
For
1.06, 2.02, and Crowell
1.02 and Adrian Peterson
For
1.06, 2.02, and Crowell
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Well ya never know. I have seen some crazy stacked rosters. In one FFPC league I am in one team has Gronk, Reed and Eifert for example. The point being roster make up is a fair question. Btw, Lacy would be a very close call on one of my rosters.
I bet you don't outright cut Lacy. I bet no one outright cuts him in a single FFPC league. No reason to cut someone when someone will give something for him. But point remains the same, Gio is about as worthwhile or worthless as Lacy and would not make any sense to give up a pick to get Gio if he was going to cut Lacy. I get the need for more info on trades, I don't think it applied in this case. I don't think there is any roster makeup were that trade makes any sense.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I was told up above that the 1.05 and Shepard wouldn't start a conversation for the 1.02 but then I see a trade like this. I would want more for the 1.02 as well but it seems some people value a given player more or less than others. Haha. Who knew?
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Ya, if I held Lacy I would be happy to get a mid 3 for him. I also agree Gio ain't worth a 1st. I was more focused on Lacy's value, which isn't much in my eyes.
One More Rep
Footballguy
I agree but I'm in an FFPC league where someone just last week traded McCoy for Lacy and Julius Thomas. I'd think he might get you a second at least if you shopped him around.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If bad trades made by bad owners are in play for suggestions about what you can flip a guy for, maybe you can just flip Shepard for David Johnson and flip the 1.05 for Odell Beckham.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You know what? I think your criticism is fair. My main point is that it's hard to know how the 1.02 owner (or trading partner in general) feels about it. In one of my leagues there aren't a lot of trades. It's kind of lame. In two other leagues trading is robust. Perhaps the 1.02 owner is a bad owner for a reason. No I wouldn't necessarily expect anyone to take Shepard and the 1.05 for the 1.02. But I wouldn't be shocked. Maybe I have a different piece on my side that this owner has been after and I'm willing to swap him instead of Shepard, who I kind of like anyway.
If bad trades made by bad owners are in play for suggestions about what you can flip a guy for, maybe you can just flip Shepard for David Johnson and flip the 1.05 for Odell Beckham.
So, that would be Landry, 1.09, and "insert some random player I don't mind losing that the 1.02 owner wants" for Fournette and Shepard. For example. Hahaha I know I know.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think the 1.02 is the key piece in this trade.32 Counter Pass said:
