Warhogs
Footballguy
Ugh. I think you way overpaid on Cooks. I wouldn't have traded Allen straight up for him.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
northern exposure
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
I love Cooks but would ship him off right away for Allen and 2 1st's
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'd trade Alshon for two random 1sts. If both picks are truly locks to be in the 9-12 range--I'll take Alshon.jadensdad said:
EDIT: I don't play superflex, however, so I could be way off.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
We'll see what the tier breaks look like in a month or two, but 2.03 and 1.12 could be sixes--I don't love the late first this year.One More Rep said:
I actually don't hate the trade. I'm not quite that high on Cooks, so I wouldn't make it. But the upside is there, and--assuming the 2018 pick is truly late--it's likely to come down to Cooks and Allen. I see the argument for Cooks.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Good catch. This could easily be unpacked as:
1.12 > 2.03 by a pinch but tiering makes them kind of a wash
2018 1st = 2.06 - Many leagues I am in see this kind of trade/value. I'll take the 2018 pick generally but if it's a true late pick and a guy I like is at 2.06 I could see keeping it.
Cooks = Allen - this is a perfectly reasonable opinion for one to have.
This doesn't look nearly as bad to me as it initially did.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Did this a few days ago and then lost power for almost a week
Gave 2018 1st, 2nd, Marvin Jones and Demaryius Thomas
Got Antonio Brown.
Full ppr 14 team league start 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1 te, 2 flex my team is below
Luck
Miller/Crowell/West/DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard/ Artis-Payne/Vereen/Michaels
Brown/Adams/Baldwin/Crowder/Coates/Wheaton
Hooper/Henry/Doyle/Allen
Gave 2018 1st, 2nd, Marvin Jones and Demaryius Thomas
Got Antonio Brown.
Full ppr 14 team league start 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1 te, 2 flex my team is below
Luck
Miller/Crowell/West/DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard/ Artis-Payne/Vereen/Michaels
Brown/Adams/Baldwin/Crowder/Coates/Wheaton
Hooper/Henry/Doyle/Allen
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
KAllen is an injury risk, I'm a huge Tom Brady and Patriots fan ... in the one where I got Cooks I have Tom 
J3RS3YD3V1L
Footballguy
Salary cap dynasty:
Team A gave up Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB and Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.03 and Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.10Team B gave up Bortles, Blake JAC QB and Henry, Derrick TEN RB and Henry, Hunter LAC TE
Team A gave up Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB and Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.03 and Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.10Team B gave up Bortles, Blake JAC QB and Henry, Derrick TEN RB and Henry, Hunter LAC TE
Snorkelson
Footballguy
1.03/1.10 for the Henry's? I'll take the picks but it seems fair. Bortles/tannehill about even. Its close, but 1.03 for dh and 1.10 for hh is a little more than I'd like to pay for either. I can see an argument the other way, you've seen them both look pretty decent on their backup roles in the NFL and you might hit on one or none of the picks.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
J3RS3YD3V1L
Footballguy
They are truly late. One is mine (highest scoring team) other is champ with a very strong returning team.
picks more valuable In superflex. Last season goff, lynch went in the first round, wentz early second
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'd probably take 1.03 over Derrick but Hunter is worth quite a bit more than 1.10 right now.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't have a strong opinion on Hunter as a player (either way), but I'm not sold that he should be more valuable than the 1.10. This class is loaded with TE talent--and I'm not sure I won't get a better TE prospect in the 2.01-2.05 range this year. LAC is a great situation, obviously, and Hunter has flashed--so maybe I'm getting too cute here. But I think I'd take Howard and Butt over Henry alone--and I feel pretty good about turning the 1.10 into that pair. Or a vet/rookie duo, even.
Again, I'm open to being way off here; I haven't put a ton of thought into it. But on the surface, I think Hunter Henry is being overrated, in comparison to an absolutely loaded TE class.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
Team A gave Melvin Gordon
Team B gave 1.04 and 1.05
It's a start 1 RB league
Team B gave 1.04 and 1.05
It's a start 1 RB league
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Investing in rookie TE's is tough business, a lot of busts and usually takes time. To say you'd rather have one of these guys without even knowing where they land versus someone who has already flashed does in fact seem to cute, to me. I don't think a landing spot exists where I'd take a rookie TE over Henry but at least with a guy like Howard, the physical freak kind of player, I think at least it's worth a thought if they landed in some great situation.
I respect non-consensus opinions but I really struggle to see how someone could take Butt straight up over Henry. He actually looks a lot like a Henry to me but to say you'd take him over Henry when he is recovering from his second AC, 100% unproven on the NFL level, even if he's good chances of making an impact next year seem pretty minimal considering how late he was injured and how tough that position is to get up to speed on seems like a wild stretch.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Pretty big flub in a start 1 RB league, IMO. The picks by quite a bit--and I'm a Gordon apologist.
Seems about even. I for sure would have a week ago but losing Woodhead and Oliver helped.
joey
Footballguy
Can't believe how low people's opinions are of Melvin Gordon. I know it's a start 1 RB league but the 1.04 and 1.05 are entirely dart throws every year (though having both picks back to back helps diffuse that risk a bit, I suppose).
Dynasty rankings are like a-holes, I know,
but FBG dynasty rankings have Gordon as RB5. Are we really trading 2 dart throws in a draft with just 2 agreed-upon-studs (that's up for debate as well, I know) for a top 5 dynasty RB?
Guess it shows that Gordon can be a Buy target for folks who believe in him...
Dynasty rankings are like a-holes, I know,
but FBG dynasty rankings have Gordon as RB5. Are we really trading 2 dart throws in a draft with just 2 agreed-upon-studs (that's up for debate as well, I know) for a top 5 dynasty RB?Guess it shows that Gordon can be a Buy target for folks who believe in him...
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Hes kind of #5 by default due to the barren RB landscape. He and Freeman are pretty much identically ranked. Would you trade Freeman for the 4 and 5?Can't believe how low people's opinions are of Melvin Gordon. I know it's a start 1 RB league but the 1.04 and 1.05 are entirely dart throws every year (though having both picks back to back helps diffuse that risk a bit, I suppose).
Dynasty rankings are like a-holes, I know,
Guess it shows that Gordon can be a Buy target for folks who believe in him...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Sorry if I wasn't clear. I meant to say that I preferred Howard plus Butt to Henry alone. This assuming taxi squads or 25+ man rosters.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
In a start 1 RB league, the advantage that WRs offer in longevity and availability is hard to ignore. I have Gordon in the RB4-RB7 tier myself, but would happily trade him for the picks in this format.Can't believe how low people's opinions are of Melvin Gordon. I know it's a start 1 RB league but the 1.04 and 1.05 are entirely dart throws every year (though having both picks back to back helps diffuse that risk a bit, I suppose).
Dynasty rankings are like a-holes, I know,
Guess it shows that Gordon can be a Buy target for folks who believe in him...
joey
Footballguy
don't think I would but my draft history with 1.4 and 1.5 picks probably has something to do with it
and I don't play 1RB leagues so that probably skews it more than I realize.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Same Team A, and I made a deal with him
I traded away: Cam Newton
Team A traded: Jordy Nelson, Josh Doctson, 2019 1st (early-mid? who knows)
Context - I still have Dak/Ryan as starters with 2 backup QB's and my WR's are Evans/Amari/Crowder/Mitchell/Agholor/Conley/JJ Nelson
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
History may dictate that 1.4 and 1.5 are dart throws but history is not exactly kind to starting RBs that failed to break 4ypc in their first two years as a starter either. "Dart throw" would be a generous way of putting it.1Can't believe how low people's opinions are of Melvin Gordon. I know it's a start 1 RB league but the 1.04 and 1.05 are entirely dart throws every year (though having both picks back to back helps diffuse that risk a bit, I suppose).
Dynasty rankings are like a-holes, I know,
The risk surrounding Gordon is understated in dynasty circles. He's a volume dependent, TD dependent player who's hold on both volume and TDs may be tenuous as early as next offseason (or sooner) if he doesn't improve rather quickly as a player.
Here is a list of long-term fantasy stud RBs that failed to break 4ypc in their first two years as a starter:
1) Matt Forte
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Nope.
Even Eddie George ran for 4.1ypc as a rookie.
ETA: You are correct on Forte. Adding him to the list.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for keeping me honest. My mistake. Matt Forte and Thomas Jones qualify, however.FreeBaGeL said:
If you change the criteria to YPC over the first two seasons, a number of guys went on to have productive careers after a slow start--Curtis Martin, Ricky Williams, Marshall Faulk to name a few.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Thomas Jones wasn't a starter his first two years. His first two years as an actual starter he ran for 4.0 and 4.3ypc.
But yeah, needless to say the fact that we're having to go back more than 2 decades to find guys who even came close to qualifying shows just how rare it is.
Forte is the lone beacon of hope but he also blew Gordon away as a receiver (120 receptions in his first two years to Gordon's pretty average 74). He also saw a significant improvement in his ypc in year 3 which is actually kind of my point. People seem pretty confident that Gordon is locked in as the guy but the reality is probably that he likely needs a significant improvement to hold on to the gig.
There just aren't guys running for 3.x YPC in the modern NFL and holding on to the job long term, especially a volume one like Gordon had last year. It's too easy and cheap to find RBs that can do better than that now, or that can at least split the load which would totally ruin Gordon's volume-dependent value.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I won't argue against the data existing, but am not convinced it qualifies as information. Firstly, we'd need the ability to truly query the data. If we're using a player's first two years as a starter, there's a whole bunch of guys my initial scan missed. We'd have to recalculate the YPC of all the guys credited with a 4.0. (McGahee had his 3.97 rounded up, which is why he doesn't qualify.) Most importantly, we'd need to justify our constraints--is 4.0 YPC in one of the first two seasons really a meaningful cutoff? Is one 15 yard run here or there really meaningful? (If Gordon's next carry went for 11 yards, his average would have been rounded up to 4.0.) How do you value less than a tenth of a yard to that degree without offering any additional context--offensive line, usage, etc? I'm sure we could find a single bad call that cost him 4.0 or gifted it to player who would otherwise qualify as a comp. How much do we account for the awful offensive line play? Or the obvious playcalling year 1?
I don't know what Gordon is. I have no issue with anyone who wants no part of his current ADP. But I don't think his YPC is the data point that the fantasy community wants it to be.
joey
Footballguy
All great stuff. That's why I posted what I did knowing it would lead to me learning a lot here. Thanks everyone.
I guess I'm more looking to WIN NOW in my dynasty leagues so I'll take a year of RB1 this year, and then a question mark the next year, instead of 2 dart throws that probably don't produce this year at all. Also, my 2 dynasty leagues are 12 teams, non-ppr and only Keep 12. So less chance to stash lots of prospects beyond 3 or 4 rookies, in my experience at least.
gianmarco
Footballguy
That's just an arbitrary cut-off that helps fit your narrative but there's a lot more to it than that. First of all, Gordon was a 1st round draft pick. 1st round picks, especially at RB, have a MUCH longer leash than RBs drafted in the rest of the draft. In fact, the 1st round has had plenty of guys that weren't very good that kept getting opportunities. For that reason alone, I don't think Gordon is at risk of losing his job any time soon.FreeBaGeL said:
Secondly, let's not apply just a specific arbitrary cut off but let's look at some specific examples of 1st round RBs lately. And, to be clear, the list of "long-term fantasy stud RBs" is very short to begin with as there is lots of turnover at the position and only a handful of RBs end up being long-term fantasy studs. That doesn't mean other guys don't have value, but you're dealing with a small population to start. That said, here are some recent 1st round RBs and what they've done.
1) Doug Martin had a great rookie year and then followed that up with seasons of 3.6 and 3.7 ypc, got hurt, and yet STILL had a job his 4th year in the NFL where he put up a 4.9 ypc average and had another stellar year.
2) Mark Ingram started his first 2 yrs with 3.9 and 3.9 ypc. Since then, he's been at 4.9, 4.3, 4.6, and 5.1. The fact that NO hasn't given him the full-time job because of how Payton is has nothing to do with the fact that he is still the starter going into his 7th year and has been very fantasy relevant the last 3 yrs despite two years at sub-4.0 ypc. He's STILL ranked as RB14 by FBG staffers
3) Marshawn Lynch started his first 2 yrs at 4.0 and 4.1 ypc. He misses your arbitrary cutoff, but that is hardly a measure of excellence. His 3rd year he was 3.8. His next full year was at 3.5 (missed 2010). And we know how that story has gone after that. His numbers came purely on volume his first 2 seasons and there were the same doubts about him after those first two years.
4) Reggie Bush -- 3.6, 3.7, and 3.8 to start his career. Yet he still logged 200+ carries for 3 yrs in a row in his 6th, 7th, and 8th seasons in the league and was quite fantasy relevant during that time.
5) Willis McGahee -- 4.0 and 3.8 to start his career....just misses that arbitrary cutoff. Definitely a longer career with fantasy relevance throughout most of it.
6) Todd Gurley -- Awesome start at 4.8 ypc and now at 3.2 ypc for his 2nd year. Doesn't fit your criteria, but THAT is worrisome. Gordon has at least improved from 3.5 to 3.9 while running behind a poor O-line.
Bottom line is that every situation is unique. There is definite reason to be cautious about Gordon moving forward if you look at just his YPC. But, there is also plenty of reason to be optimistic moving forward as well. His 1st round pedigree is one reason. He looked good this past year and seemed to get it more. And he's been running behind an awful situation these last 2 years that one would hope would eventually improve. Either way, he will likely continue to see that volume and is unlikely to lose his job anytime in the near future, so he is very likely to continue to be fantasy relevant.
joey
Footballguy
I might do that after the NFL draft once I know where the rookies are landing, but before the draft I'm not so sure.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Of course that's a double edged sword since there is also a risk of the pick owner getting cold feet after seeing the player at 1.05 if lots of guys end up in good spots.
Fournette, Cook, McCaffrey, Davis, Williams, Mixon, Kamara.
That's 7 guys. Fournette/Cook/Davis are essentially situation proof (barring anything insanely crazy) in terms of value so that would mean all but two of the other guys would have to land in a bad spot to make 1.05 lose a lot of value, which seems unlikely. Even if one of the earlier guys like McCaffrey ends up in a bad spot there's a decent chance that one of the later guys balances that out by landing in a really good spot (Kamara in Indy or GB).
joey
Footballguy
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