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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
I agree with everything you are saying, right down to where I think Green's style of play ages well, but I would take Diggs and McCaffrey if I was picking a side.
battlestar
Footballguy
12 Team PPR Start 1-3 RB 2-5 WR
Gave
Amari Cooper, Deandre Washington, Malcolm Mitchell 2018 2nd, 2019 3rd
Got
Julio Jones, Cameron Artis-Payne, Trumaine Pope, 2019 2nd
Gave
Amari Cooper, Deandre Washington, Malcolm Mitchell 2018 2nd, 2019 3rd
Got
Julio Jones, Cameron Artis-Payne, Trumaine Pope, 2019 2nd
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Some recent deals for input:
- Got: Cooks, Brandin NEP WR;Mitchell, Malcolm NEP WR; Year 2018 Round 2 Draft Pick
- Gave: Mathews, Ryan PHI RB;Anderson, Robby NYJ WR; Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.05; Year 2018 Round 1 Draft Pick
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jeaton6
Footballguy
You'll need a sounder argument than that. You could say that about anything regarding numbers and then use your sole experience to try to discredit it. I'll take a large sample over a small one any day. I do agree with above poster it's situation dependent but 1.3/2.9 to me is about even on balance.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
That woujd not get it done in my league. Start 1 qb, 6ptd TD. All depends on the owners, of course. Our owners hoard qb.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
northern exposure
Footballguy
But,what are we talking about here? When you disagreed with my opinion earlier, you stated that the price for Luck was justified by looking at ADP data. DLF bases their ADP data on mock drafts, which can vary wildly from startup drafts. I've seen people draft far differently in mock drafts than they do in an actual startups because they are testing draft strategies out and looking at the results. Ex. If I draft a QB late, how does this impact my roster, if I go WR/WR in the 1st 2 rounds what do I end up with on my roster, etc.
People can be overcome by rookie fever in mock drafts and there is also a tendency towards "groupthink" in them.
DLF also ranks Luck as the #1 dynasty QB and that only gets you 1.03 and a low 2nd round pick? You and others can agree with this, but I don't have to. These are opinions, there is a lot more gray than there is black and white.
Once the NFL draft happens and we see where the rookies land, I might be more inclined to agree with you. But, for now, I don't.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Trading a qb in 1qb dynasty is difficult. The position is devalued on a whole, even if it is the #1 qb. You can get by with a couple mid range qbs and not lose too many points per week. People don't give up top 5 picks for qbs very often, and usually it's because of an injury and they are a competing team if they do. I don't think the mocks are that skewed because of people trying different strategies. Henry/1.03/2.09/2018 1st is a nice haul for Luck.
JPeso
Footballguy
I'll take Julio. As much as I like Cooper, Julio has several more years of 18-20 PPR PPG. Cooper could get there sure, but give me the guy who is currently the competitive advantage.
JPeso
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
DLF is based on 6 mocks per month. The voting data we are loooking at in this forum is based on 60-100 votes per poll. 1.3 and Luck were within a couple spots. Similar value.
You think people are overcome by rookie fever in mocks more so than real drafts? I don't.
JPeso
Footballguy
Agreed. The rookies will only rise in real drafts, exponentially more so after we see the landings. Dynasty ADP in Jan-March is always heavily favored toward veterans.
One More Rep
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
Boone22
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Id take the 1.10 and 2.5 in this draft. Think Sheps numbers are capped pretty restrictively.
bostonfred
Footballguy
On value, I think the ajayi side wins. Ajayi is probably going to have a start up adp earlier than the guy that goes 1.6, and Wentz is much better than Goff.
But I like the deal for the 1.6 side. You most likely got ajayi and wentz for second round picks and flipped them for 1.6 two years later plus added a young qb with some small amount of value if only because he was taken 1.1 in last year's draft. This is good exit value especially if you're not a huge ajayi believer.
One More Rep
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Sure, I get that. But the dynasty trade market is inefficient. You only have a handful of potential buyers, and not all of them value things the same way or have things you want.
One way to take advantage of that inefficiency is to flip your second and third round picks as soon as their value goes up to try to accumulate veterans or firsts. Unless you're legit sold on a guy, in the long run you'll do better that way, More second round guys flash than really emerge.
I am not sold on ajayi actually emerging as a stud, so I'm fine with moving him for a slightly below market deal.
When I say that on value I prefer the Ajayi side, I mean I think the market would generally prefer Ajayi, so I could probably flip ajayi for more than I could flip 1.6 for. But picks are fungible. There might not be anyone in your specific league willing to give a first for ajayi, but i can move 1.6 to a lot more people or bundle it in a trade a lot more easily.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I agree you may have fewer Ajayi buyers than 1.6 buyers but possibly not. Those that are actively trying to win this year will much prefer the pick.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Shepard was 1.5 or 1.6 in most drafts last year and now he's not even worth a late 1st? What happened last year to cause him to lose value? If anything, he showed more than most rookies do. Marshall may be a short-term road block but that shouldn't impact his overall value (see D. Henry, for example).
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think you mean they will much prefer the player.
It really depends on the league. I think a lot of win now guys are going to have visions of Ezekiel Elliott with the rb they get at 1.6, and there are other win now guys who might acquire 1.6 so they can bundle him to a rebuilder who only has one or two good young players.
In my experience, the market for picks includes win now guys, but the market for veterans does not include veterans.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yes. Autocorrect.
I think you mean the market for veterans does not include rebuilders....
I don't think most 1.6 holders will have Zeke in there head. He was consensus 1.1 last year: 1.6 is to be 3rd or 4th best RB. I don't think anyone expects McCaffrey to be Zeke. Some may see Mixon there but he comes with plenty of risk.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
I didn't think Shepard was worth 1.5 or 1.6 last year. I had him after Elliott, Henry, Coleman, Doctson, Treadwell, Thomas, Dixon, and actually a bunch more. I think I had him about 14th. I actually think his value appreciated a little before Marshall showed up. But he isn't startable now. And there are a lot of receivers I think can become startable.
I'd rather have a lot of young veteran receivers. Tyler Lockett, for example. They seem like real similar guys to me. I'd rather have John Ross. I don't usually like speed guys, but he's the speediest speed guy we've ever seen. I'd rather have Kupp or Carlos, if they end up on decent teams, because I view them as similar talents but they may have a faster path to relevance.
I don't know what pick I'd give for Shepard, because I'm not looking to buy. I would guess there are more leagues with owners looking to sell Shepard than leagues where people are hot to buy him.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
How about this:
- Gave: Morris, Alfred DAL RB;Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR; Year 2017 Draft Pick 3.05
- Got: Boyd, Tyler CIN WR
bostonfred
Footballguy
I think a lot of people drafting McCaffrey will expect or at least hope to use him as a starter this year.
gianmarco
Footballguy
That may be the case for you, but he consistently went 1.5 or 1.6 in drafts last year. So, you should understand that you are in the minority in your thinking on him (definitely last year and most likely this year as well).
Which is fine and I can appreciate that viewpoint as we all have players that we like or don't like that may go against the grain, but it was a strange comment to say "not sure why you'd do this" when I would guess there are enough owners that would move the 1.10 for Shepard. He currently has a mid 4th round startup ADP. That is most definitely higher than 1.10 value. The comment "I wouldn't do this" makes a lot more sense than "not sure why you'd do this". It just gives an impression that you know a lot more than others which really isn't necessary.
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
Another one:
- Gave: Ellington, Andre ARI RB; Year 2017 Draft Pick 2.05
- Got: gave up Bortles, Blake JAC QB; Year 2017 Draft Pick 3.04
One More Rep
Footballguy
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Really? Keep in mind I would have probably just dropped Ellington by the start of the season. I think people are way to low on Bortles. The JAGS have made move for him to discussed and I think they are going to add a top RB via the draft. I think he is a solid top 15 QB.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Bortles may be a top 15 qb but for me the 2.5 is more valuable and especially if he is just your backup
bostonfred
Footballguy
I doubt that holds up after the Marshall signing. Would be interested in seeing how far it falls.
kutta
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
It'll fall, but I don't think it'll fall that much. I agree, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Either way, it would have to fall A LOT to drop below where the 1.10 likely goes in startups.
Let's keep in mind that Marshall is only getting $5M for this year and has no guaranteed money in 2018 (and it's only a 2 yr contract). He got paid less than Wheaton, Garcon, Stills, Britt, and Woods did and is getting the same this year as Torrey Smith. In other words, this isn't an expensive deal and I don't even think it's fair to assume yet he's even the #2 WR there.
In other words, from a dynasty standpoint, the addition of Marshall is a small blip on the value of a 24 yr old dynasty WR. Again, for the same reason D. Henry isn't and shouldn't be discounted much just because D. Murray is coming back, it shouldn't change his value that much (even though we'll see if it does).
ETA -- Here's one last tidbit on Shepard and then I'll leave it alone so we don't turn this into a SS thread.
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
So it's better to go into the season with one QB and have the 17th rookie on my bench? Interesting.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
A lot of people don't think that TD rate for the number of targets is sustainable especially with a red zone thread like Marshall. Thats where most of his value came from last season. It would be impossible for me to take him over Fournette, Cook, Williams, Davis, Ross, Mixon or McCaffrey. That immediately puts him at #8 in this class. Add in a few players going to premium spots and 1.10 might be a nice deal for him. If he has another 60 catch 600 yard season, his value is gonna take a hit. And with Marshall signed, that seems more likely than not.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
hoffman0001
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
League context helps, but in a normal league it's just too easy to find a short-term QB off the waiver wire to invest anything in a backup, even if your starter ISN'T Aaron Rodgers (and especially if it is).hoffman0001 said:
Unless it's a big league or deep rosters there will usually be whatever Brian Hoyer of the week available to pick up and start that will likely be as good an option as Bortles.
Bortles does contain some mentionable upside at least that he returns to form so there is that, but in terms of thinking "I need a backup QB" well....I would never pay anything of value for that.
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