Yep, Garcon is going to severely outperform his draft position. Last time Shanahan had Garcon, Washington went 3-13 but Garcon had 116 receptions. Hoyer knows the system and will target Garcon heavily, much like he did Hopkins in 2015. There is no other receiver on the team, Garcon will benefit from the terrible defense.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (31 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Why people are still high on Parker baffles me- so many things point the other way.
1. He's wr3....on his own team.
2. Coach calling him out this offseason and previously, I question his work ethic.
3. They continued to draft wr last year fairly early
4. Is tannehill even on track for the offseason after electing to not have surgery? Last I knew it wasn't going well.
5. Addition of Julius Thomas may take some red zone targets away, which is most of his upside if he's not a focal point of the offense.
Ertz isn't a lock for top 5 te numbers by any stretch.
charles doesn't have a team, and how much left in the tank?
if I'm trading a top 12 rb I want a guy I can put in my lineup pretty much every week. Sure it's te premium and maybe I should rethink ertz, but I see a bunch of overvalued pieces for one of the few non-timeshare rbs in the league.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Forgot about Hoyer; still see it this way on Garçon WR24 last year versus this year and moving forward in dynasty.
Washington offense >>>> San Fran
Gruden = Shanny
Cousins >>> Hoyer (can never stay healthy)
Targets in San Fran > Washington
Scoring Opportunities in San Fran <<< Washington
NFC West Defenses >> NFC East defenses
For all these reasons, I would not want to rely on Garcon this year or in future. He turns 31 in August.
I don't really think I would want to rely on him as a key piece, but he will be available as a WR 4/5 in almost any league you play in. I expect him to perform low end WR2. In Washington he was competing for targets with Reed, Crowder and Jackson, in San Francisco his greatest threat is Kerley. Not saying he is a star to build around, but he just screams value pick as a weekly WR3.
blardorg
Footballguy
I like Doctson alone over those picks. He was my 1.02 or 1.03 last year (he and Coleman interchangeable), way too early to cut on him. Siemian is a fantastic throw in on top, given superflex and that you have Lynch. Even if he doesn't lock down a starting NFL job for too much longer, he should remain a really high end backup QB in real life and a potential target for QB-hungry teams (like Houston, NYJ, Cleveland this year).
blardorg
Footballguy
Not to discount all the reasons you're doubting the guys on the other end of the deal, but I think you're overlooking how risky Jordan Howard still is. We've seen essentially 12 games from him as a starter, and his entire offense got overhauled this off season. Way too early to be confident he'll be a perennial RB1.
I also do think Ertz isn't quite getting as much respect as he should. He definitely needs to pick up on the TDs to really fulfill his fantasy potential, but he's a strong mid range TE1. Week 9 onward last year, once he was fully over his earlier injury and fully worked into the offense, he went 63-666-4 over 9 games. I know I know, Ertz always finishes the year strongly, but I do think he's putting up quality numbers for longer each season. Big question with him is how the offense will look with Jeffery there, and if/when the Eagles address RB in any meaningful way.
bostonfred
Footballguy
The only reason I would trade for devante parker is to trade him to somebody who thinks he's an important part of a deal for Jordan Howard
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Sure Howard isn't a lock, but monster production in yr 1 and that offense can't be worse, but will still rely on Howard, and the list of rbs that start out yr 1 like Howard is pretty impressive. I'll take that over "potential" or over guys who have shown some flashes over 2 years but can't seem to crack the starting lineup on their own team. I could be wrong, but his upside and floor is way higher than any of those guys. Sure Howard hype is pretty strong, but the ertz/Mathews/Parker hype is keeping these guys value where it is in spite of their production. What happens to Mathews and Parker if they go for 50/800/5 this year? Think you'll get 1st round rookie value still? Shouldn't be getting that now. I can see a scenario where Howard outgains all of those guys put together.
Also, i think 1.06-1.08 for Howard may be a little low. Howard has shown he can play at a high level, maybe you rank some rookies ahead but all of them? Isn't the general consensus that a guy who has proven himself vs NFL talent is more valuable than a similar rookie (assuming they are close age wise)? Hunter Henry>the rookie tes?
It's not like Garcon hasn't put up numbers in this same exact role before under the same OC. His last year with Shanahan as OC in Washington (2013), Garcon caught 113 passes (most in the NFL) for 1,346 yards. That was also on a bad team that went 3-13.
I'm buying this offseason if the price is right (anything less than a mid-2nd rounder) because I think he's going to see a lot of targets.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This one is not even a little bit close for me. A bucket of disappointments that are 6 games from being worth nothing (heck, some of them should already be worth nothing) and an over the hill guy for a breakout RB that shares space on a list with some of the best fantasy RBs of all-time?
Ertz is the only player Team B is getting that wouldn't be a big surprise to me if he ends up being a reliable fantasy starter, and even he has been wildly disappointing.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Different strokes. I rather take a shot at this deep class, and look for similar production to Garcon for cheaper elsewhere.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Actually it looks like it's Hoyer. The same Hoyer that has a propensity to lock on to his WR1 and has made quite a few very relevant fantasy WRs out of bad teams in his career. The same Hoyer that made Cameron Meredith look like Jerry Rice in the two games they played together last year (20 receptions for 250 yards in 2 games).
It's not like we're talking about trading an early 1st rounder for him. He was moved for basically 2.09 in a 14 team league (so 2.11 equivalent in a 12 teamer). At that price I'm buying. There are lots of these lotto ticket WRs but none of them have the path to fantasy relevancy that Garcon does. We have a WR1 on a bad team that will be behind a lot going to play with an offensive coordinator who has made his lead WR (including Garcon himself) very fantasy relevant on bad teams in the past to play with a QB that loves to pepper his WR1 with targets especially in garbage time.
It's all just sitting right there, lined up and ready to go. Shanahan + Hoyer + WR1 + garbage time is a pretty nice fantasy combo. That Shanahan and Garcon have connected for a great season together before is just another sweet cherry on top.
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JackReacher
Footballguy
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JackReacher
Footballguy
On Garcon,
I show him in my 1 PPR league at:
2016: WR 30
2015: WR 33
2014: WR 47
I don't have the info on the big 2013 season, but I do see he had 189 targets. Would be surprised to see him get 70% of that this year.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
WR24 last year in my standard PPR league (10 yards/pt, 1 point per reception).
WR11 in 2013.
Yeah, 189 targets is a lot. But then again this year he's the WR1 on an offense that will be trailing a lot with an OC that loves to target the WR1 and a QB that loves to do the same. 189 is crazy high but it's not a huge stretch to imagine him getting a lot of targets. Obviously no guarantees, which is why he's WR66 in dynasty rankings and not WR15, and is priced accordingly.
No one else down there has anywhere close to the path for a lot of targets as Garcon does.
He had 114 targets last year and finished as WR24. Obviously his targets will be lower quality this year, but I don't think it's unreasonable that he might end up in the 140-150 range if things break decently. That's where Terrelle Pryor ended up last year on a similarly bad and often trailing Cleveland team, even without an OC/QB that tends to lean on the WR1.
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JackReacher
Footballguy
Fair enough. My league rewards scoring distance, and scoring and YAC are not Garcon's strengths. I agree he will outplay WR66, but again I'd prefer to choose elsewhere in the late second, and value him as a fourth.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
10-team PPR Best Ball with deep rosters and full IDP. Start 1 QB.
Not involved. Not an Earth shattering deal but thought I'd post it anyway.
4.10, 5.08, 6.02
for
Ryan Tannehill, Mike Wallace, Tavon Austin
Not involved. Not an Earth shattering deal but thought I'd post it anyway.
4.10, 5.08, 6.02
for
Ryan Tannehill, Mike Wallace, Tavon Austin
Dez
Footballguy
Posted March 12, 2016 · Report post
On 3/12/2016 at 3:00 PM, bigstacks33 said:
QRRWWWFTD 15 player league
Team A (defending champ) gives up:
Jeremy Langford and Jeremy Hill
Team B gives up:
Devonta Freeman
Langford/hill for me
Interesting how high people value Howard a 5th round pick in real life last year that was going in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of rookie drafts.
If you search Langford in this post you see many trades where a team got Hyde for Langford or in this case Freeman for Langford/Hill and many did like the Langford side of many deals in here a year ago and some did not as well. Things can change fast in the NFL guys like Matt Jones and Langford are forgotten just as fast as they were found. Not saying Howard will fall in this class but 5th round pick in real life has to give you a little worry that he isn't going to stick for the next 5 years as a RB1.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Langford/hill for me
Interesting how high people value Howard a 5th round pick in real life last year that was going in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of rookie drafts.
If you search Langford in this post you see many trades where a team got Hyde for Langford or in this case Freeman for Langford/Hill and many did like the Langford side of many deals in here a year ago and some did not as well. Things can change fast in the NFL guys like Matt Jones and Langford are forgotten just as fast as they were found. Not saying Howard will fall in this class but 5th round pick in real life has to give you a little worry that he isn't going to stick for the next 5 years as a RB1.
Jeremy Langford ran for 3.6ypc and finished that season with 537 yards rushing.
Jordan Howard ran for 5.2ypc and finished with one of the greatest rookie RB seasons in NFL history.
A little bit different.
And in case you didn't notice, the guy on the other side of the deal you posted (Devonta Freeman) was one of those players as well, and he's doing pretty well right now. Another one was David Johnson.
Obviously there is risk with any player coming off one good year. If there wasn't then Howard would be a top 3 overall dynasty player right now because what he did last year as a rookie is something that mostly only all-time great fantasy players can stack up with.
It's not even like this trade is moving him for some young but more proven super stud. Even if Howard is a huge bust it's not like the deal is an auto-loss because most of the guys on the other side are practically already busts themselves.
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dipandglide
Footballguy
I don't need to school you as the others have already taken care of that. This thread is for evaluating trades. If you go back and look at the actual trade the Garcon side was EASILY the winner.JackReacher said:
I'm taking advantage of all the people that have similar thinking to yours. Getting WR2 production for 3rd round picks is how you win championships.
I'm actually higher on Bortles than most, but team A should've a gotten good amount more than that for Cooper.
One More Rep
Footballguy
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JackReacher
Footballguy
Ok. So Garçon is going to the worst team in the league and will be a WR2 for the second time in a decade with a journeyman QB who gets hurt more than he plays. At 31. You're right; dynasty gold. You schooled me good.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
He doesn't have to be dynasty gold to be worth a 3rd rounder. He just has to be redraft bronze or silver.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I prefer Tyrell Williams to Parker or Matthews.Snorkelson said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
12 team PPR TE Premium QRRWWTFFDK
Team A gives Kenneth Dixon, Travis Benjamin, 2.03
Team B gives Breshad Perriman, 2018 1st & 2nd (playoff team)
Team A gives Kenneth Dixon, Travis Benjamin, 2.03
Team B gives Breshad Perriman, 2018 1st & 2nd (playoff team)
Dez
Footballguy
No doubt Howard may be the next David Johnson but he also could be the next Steve Slaton, Thomas Rawls, Zach Stacy, Tre Mason or Jeremy Hill. Only time will tell. Seen guys trading McCoy a couple years back for Tre Mason only to see Gurley drafted a few months later. I turned down multiple 1st round picks for Slaton. Rawls was super hot after a huge end to 2015 season now has Lacy to share with.FreeBaGeL said:
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One More Rep
Footballguy
Recent trades in one 12 team ppr, start QRWWTFFD league
Team A got DeMarco Murray, Vance McDonald, 1.12, 2.03, 4.03
Team B got Jordan Howard, Ryan Griffin, 2.04, 4.08
-------
Team C got Sharpe
Team D got Jaron Brown, 3.03
-------
Team D got 1.02, 2.10, 2018 2nd
Team E got 1.01, 5.01
-------
Team F got 1.03, 2.04, Higbee
Team B got Gurley
Team A got DeMarco Murray, Vance McDonald, 1.12, 2.03, 4.03
Team B got Jordan Howard, Ryan Griffin, 2.04, 4.08
-------
Team C got Sharpe
Team D got Jaron Brown, 3.03
-------
Team D got 1.02, 2.10, 2018 2nd
Team E got 1.01, 5.01
-------
Team F got 1.03, 2.04, Higbee
Team B got Gurley
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I don't know that these are good examples, other than being 1st year players. Slaton is 5'9" 208 and yes he had a great season when the starter went down. Rawls also was a backup that looked good but hasn't been able to stay healthy. Hill was/is in an obvious timeshare, capping his upside. Stacy/mason didn't even crack 1000 yds.
Howard is different in many respects- he won the starting job outright, is prototypical size (maybe a bit tall), had 1600 total yds (double what some of these examples did) with solid ypc- in 12 games. Yes there is some risk, but we aren't talking about trading multiple 1st round picks...well, we are, but they are 1st round picks that have seen a steady reduction in role. So he was a 5th round pick, so what? Arian foster was udfa and had a great career. Maybe a better example would be Alfred Morris, a 6th round pick that exploded his rookie year, and then had a couple 1000 yd seasons before fading .
-OZ-
Footballguy
The players aren't great but I'll take them over the picks, especially in best ball.TheBottomLine said:
I skipped the 2qb part at first glance. With that it's a really close deal and I'd take it because I still think Bortles bounces back.
Agree with all of this.FreeBaGeL said:
If Howard had that 1st round NFL draft pedigree, he'd probably be going mid-late 1st round of dynasty startups today. So I think his 5th round draft status and less than one season worth of NFL sample size is fully "baked in" to where he's valued at right now.
Definitely some risk that he's the next Zac Stacy type who rises up to top-30 overall with a good rookie season and then fades quickly. But also a decent chance he out-performs his current ADP like David Johnson, Devonta Freeman, etc.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
If he had a 1st round NFL draft pedigree he'd probably be a consensus top 2 dynasty player right now. Basically Zeke but without the dependence on his team situation staying elite.
I think people get caught up linking together any decently good season with comparisons of Zac Stacy and the like. Zac Stacy had a decently good season. Jordan Howard had an amazing rookie season. 5.2ypc and 1600 total yards in 13 games. It was basically an Odell Beckham rookie season.
Slaton is a fair comparison in terms of what they did as rookies, the other guys are not. The problem with the Slaton comparison is that he's nearly alone on the list (one other guy) of guys that had a rookie season that good and didn't end up becoming really good players. The rest of the list is a who's who of fantasy studs.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I remember drafting Kevin Jones and Julius Jones back to back in the first and second rounds one year in a redraft after both had really nice rookie seasons (no idea if they were even close to comparable with Howard, and didnt check). I remember thinking I was killing that draft. Needless to say, I sucked that year. Definitely made me gun-shy about placing high hopes on RBs with just one year of productivity. I feel like there are a lot of instances where guys like that bit people in the ###, many of which have been listed here.
Not saying I think Howard is a huge bust candidate - just saying I can see where people who are not 100% sold are coming from.
ETA: Kevin Jones had 1400 yards and 6 TD his first year. 750 and 5 the following year, stinking up my starting lineup. Julius went from 900 to 1100 yards and from 7 to 5 TDs, so his drop off wasnt as bad, but the expectations were much higher.
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
ETA2: The most accomplished WR on the Chicago roster is Kendall Wright, and they have a brand new, completely unproven QB. Not an ideal situation for a RB to flourish. Points may be hard to come by for that offense, and there may be a lot of passing in the 4th quarters.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Langford/hill for meDez said:
Interesting how high people value Howard a 5th round pick in real life last year that was going in the 2nd or 3rd rounds of rookie drafts.
If you search Langford in this post you see many trades where a team got Hyde for Langford or in this case Freeman for Langford/Hill and many did like the Langford side of many deals in here a year ago and some did not as well. Things can change fast in the NFL guys like Matt Jones and Langford are forgotten just as fast as they were found. Not saying Howard will fall in this class but 5th round pick in real life has to give you a little worry that he isn't going to stick for the next 5 years as a RB1.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/jordan-howard?id=2555418
nfl.com draft profile on Howard. Why doubt? Bears got good value in rd 5.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Again I think there's a difference between a good season and a borderline transcendent season, in which Howard really had the latter. I know people are getting tired of seeing this list and I should probably just keep it sitting in my clipboard at this point, but here are the only players that have rushed for 1200+ yards as a rookie.
Fred TaylorChris JohnsonLadainian TomlinsonMatt ForteSteve SlatonMarshall FaulkAdrian PetersonJamal LewisEddie GeorgeDoug MartinMike AndersonCurtis MartinClinton PortisEdgerrin JamesAlfred Morris
Ezekiel ElliotJordan Howard
And remember, Howard did it in basically 13 games.
Now that list isn't 100% bust-free. But nothing is in fantasy football, and that's about as close as you're going to get to it.
It's actually kind of funny that I've ended up being the champion of Howard on this board, because if you go back you'll see that I have probably been the weariest of these 2nd year RBs that had a good rookie season of anyone here. I've consistently said that these guys are the WORST value in all of fantasy football, because you have to pay a price for them as if they have had 10 years of consistent production but are still magically 22 years old, when in reality that 1 year is far from any kind of guarantee or even likelihood. You can read some of this in last year's David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliot thread (where I was arguing for Elliot over Johnson). Or the thread of just about any of these 2nd year guys who had a good rookie year.
But for me there are two things that make Jordan Howard different.
1) His rookie season was well beyond the typical signs of life that usually propel these guys into that overvalued territory (see the list above)
2) You DON'T have to pay for him like he's been doing this for 10 years but is still magically only 22 years old.
Consider where this guy's value is right now compared to the other guys that have shown a lot less. Trent Richardson and Doug Martin were top 3 dynasty startup picks. Your Kevin Jones example I remember clearly because that was my first year playing dynasty and I had my first dynasty startup draft that year. He went 1.04 in that draft. Even guys like Jeremy Hill and Montee Ball who didn't do half of what Howard did were top 10 dynasty picks right afterwards.
Meanwhile, Howard's startup ADP right now is 3.01 (25th overall).
You're not passing on guys that are the equivalent of OBJ or Mike Evans for him like you were those other guys. You're passing on guys that are the equivalent of Alshon Jeffery or Davante Adams. That's a huge difference.
The same goes for trades. There was a trade on another forum of Howard + 2.10 for Carlos Hyde + Terrelle Pryor and the vote on who won the deal is basically a tie right now (17-16).
And that's the thing. For as much as I hype up Howard, I don't even know that much about him as a player. But fantasy football is like poker. You're weighing the risk of any particular play vs the cost to play it. Nothing is 100%, you just want good odds at a reasonable price. And that's what Howard gives you maybe more than anyone before. He's an opportunity to buy into that incredible list of players up above without having to bet the next 5 years of your team to do it like you typically would. At his current prices, he's a monster buy. The best I can remember in fantasy football, just on pot odds alone. It's a major +EV play and even if it doesn't work out, the best you can do is put yourself in those kinds of situations.
TheBottomLine
Footballguy
PPR Best Ball. 10 teams with deep rosters and full IDP. Not involved.
Sterling Shepard, KJ Wright
for
Cameron Meredith, 2018 1st/2nd/3rd (mid-late)
Sterling Shepard, KJ Wright
for
Cameron Meredith, 2018 1st/2nd/3rd (mid-late)
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Dupe post
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Run It Up
Footballguy
12 Team, TE Premium PPR, start QB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, RB/WR/TE
Sent Julian Edelman, 2018 1st (mid-late)
Received 1.09, 1.12
Finished 2nd this last year, had the 1.08 and some 3rds, now I have the 1.08+1.09+1.12 and some 3rds.
Current Roster:
Sent Julian Edelman, 2018 1st (mid-late)
Received 1.09, 1.12
Finished 2nd this last year, had the 1.08 and some 3rds, now I have the 1.08+1.09+1.12 and some 3rds.
Current Roster:
QB: M. Stafford, P. Rivers, T. Bridgewater, J. Garoppollo
RB: D. Johnson, M. Ingram, D. Lewis, A. Abdullah, D. Woodhead, S. Vereen, D. Washington(oak)
WR: A. Brown, S. Watkins, S. Diggs, M. Bryant, M. Jones, T. Austin, D. Parker, C. Hogan, D. Funchess
TE: T. Kelce, H. Henry, A. Hooper, L. Green
RB: D. Johnson, M. Ingram, D. Lewis, A. Abdullah, D. Woodhead, S. Vereen, D. Washington(oak)
WR: A. Brown, S. Watkins, S. Diggs, M. Bryant, M. Jones, T. Austin, D. Parker, C. Hogan, D. Funchess
TE: T. Kelce, H. Henry, A. Hooper, L. Green
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TheBottomLine
Footballguy
JohnW1970
Footballguy
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