Would love to know who gets taken at 1.2 that was viewed as so much better than anyone else to be worth that price...
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (35 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
kutta
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I’d put Gallup up there, probably as my wr1 actually. I’d put freeman in there as well, but my list is a bit different than yours.
Barkley
penny
jones
michel
freeman
guice
chubb
johnson
gallup
moore
ridley
kirk
Pettis
sutton
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This made more sense before the draft when it looked like Guice might be in a tier of his own. Now not only are 1.02/1.03 pretty close, but 1.07's value has increased a ton with so many RBs landing in good spots.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Seems a tad light post-draft with the Eagles adding zero RB competition. But there will be some nice talent available yet in the mid/late 2nd of ppr drafts this year, so I don't think it's totally out of line.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
If defenses are worth much (in most of mine they aren't worth more than a 2nd) I'll take the pick and Rams. But most likely Ajayi.
With the broncos not drafting a QB it seems they'll give Case a long leash so I can certainly see making this deal in superflex. Seems fair.
If I played in superflex, I’d gladly drop from 1.02 to1.04 for that price. Those first six picks are going to be fun for Team A.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Figure it's Guice (B picked) for penny or Jones, Allen or Ridley, and next year's 2nd.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
FPC Startup Trades (in league but not involved)
Team Agressive Gives:
1.06
4.07
6.07
8.07
9.06
Other team Gives:
1.02
5.02
6.11
2019 1st
Team Aggressive (same tm) Gives:
2.07
7.06
11.06
2019 1st
Other team Gives:
1.10
I like the side dropping back in both deals, but dropping back is much more my style so pretty im biased to begin with on these.
Team Agressive Gives:
1.06
4.07
6.07
8.07
9.06
Other team Gives:
1.02
5.02
6.11
2019 1st
Team Aggressive (same tm) Gives:
2.07
7.06
11.06
2019 1st
Other team Gives:
1.10
I like the side dropping back in both deals, but dropping back is much more my style so pretty im biased to begin with on these.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not sure I understand this one. Basically 1.06+8th+9th for 1.02 + future 1st. The future 1st is worth about the 8th/9th on its own and the gap from 1.06 to 1.02 is substantial. 1.02 side wins this by a ton IMO.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I think it's worth a 5th or 6th myself.
I'd still do this trade myself because if I could start my new dynasty team with Gurley, Elliot or Barkley I would pay a little to move up from 6 and do that. In a perfect world I'd rather pay for pick 3 or see if one of them drops to 4+ and make move OTC.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Are u saying the future 1st is worth the 8th & 9th startup picks? If so I do not agree and imho it is either, not both. Imo it is the 8th=future 1st and it becomes a drop back from 1.2 to 1.6 = the 9th. I can see taking the 1.2 side but I wouldn't and obviously don't feel it is landslide. Reasonable minds can disagree, peace.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Obviously we can all value these things differently but as someone who did several startups last year I can tell you that both of those valuations are far far off from the consensus.
Consensus value in a future first is that it is worth a startup 6th, which is roughly the same value as an 8th/9th (things start falling off pretty drastically after the 7th).
Via last year's adp, rookie 18 was typically being selected in the 8th round of startups. So. Saying a future first is worth a startup 8th is a bit like saying 2.06 = future 1st which I don't think most would agree with. As far as vets go 8th round this year is guys like Kyle Rudolph, Dion Lewis, Michael Crabtree, Chris Thompson. You think those guys are worth a future 1st on their own?
Likewise on something as cheap as a 9th to move from 1.6 to 1.2. Moving up in the 1st is typically very expensive and that's a pretty decent sized move. How close do you think Evans or DJ are to Gurley? It's not a catastrophic gap but surely it takes more than Greg Olsen or Corey Coleman to bridge it? Those are the types of players you will be getting in round 9.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
16 team ppr. Four 2019 1sts (all 4 will be in the 1.08-1.16 range) and the 2.07 for Michael Thomas.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
That's close and for sure strength of the current rookie crop matters. In a 2016 startup I'd say round 7 is about right, but not this year.
Let me put it this way and some of this piggybacks on points FreeBagel was making, which is also how I view it.
If you had rookie pick 1.10-1.12 and someone offered you a random 2019 first would you take it? I would myself and again a random 2019 first, worst case I'm just sitting on pick 12 again next year but maybe I get pick 1. Because this year, by the time the round 6 comes around you'll likely be down to picking the 10th-12th rookie off the board.
On the flip side would you give up your random future first for a like rookie pick 2.2-2.5? I would not and in round 7 this year I think you are likely looking at 14-17 rookies already picked.
Understand all valuations are different as are leagues. I've only done one startup since 2015 season, which was the weak 2016 draft class year. I did two startups in 2015, and I view this draft as simlarly deep as this one maybe opinions vary, but in both of those drafts in 2015 11-12 rookies were selected before the end of round 5. In one 15 rookies were taken by end of round 7 and the other 18. And again, I view this class as at least on par with depth of that 2015 class.
That's how I reach my valuation on what a future first is worth but would again say the quality or depth of current draft and best guess estimate of following years draft class does not make this a vacuum argument.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Those are all fair points but I wouldn't give up a 6th startup for a random future 1st and I don't see the gap between 1.2 and 1.6 as being that enormous. But its all good man and as I said earlier it is more in my nature to drop back than move up so I am admittedly biased to the other side to begin with.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Must be where we differ. I wouldn’t give up a late 1st this year for a random next year. Time value and the strength of this rookie draft vs what next years looks like to me. Id place an early 2nd round value on those future 1sts.
But is that realistic? How many people are you going to see give an early second and get a random 2019 first? I see these kind of trades like next to never. At most a really strong teams 2019 first, very rare for someone to give up a potential high first round pick for a second. Happens, but rare.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
See it quite a bit in the leagues I’m in. That’s about the going rate. I mean it depends on the team of the future you’re trading for. Bad teams generally aren’t trading their future 1st though. It’s usually middle of the road or good teams. A middle of the road looking 1st I’d trade maybe the 1.11 or 1.12, playoff team an early 2nd. I usually discount the pick 5 spots on where I think the team will finish. Having to wait a year has to count for something. There’s not a lot of value in future 1sts until around the trading deadline towards the end of the season from what I’ve seen.
phillyspecial
Footballguy
Has anyone developed a trade value chart for dynasty FFB, similar to the one NFL teams use for trades involving picks?
Yes it does and thus the word "random" first. It's a shot at 1.1, 1.5, whatever, the kind of picks that are worth multiple late firsts.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There are many. In my startups last year the one that almost everyone was using was this one: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2015/08/04/trading-during-a-startup-draft-the-historical-value-approach/
And people were so set on the consensus of a future 1st being worth a 6th round startup pick that, when they plugged trades into the calculator, they used the listed value of the 6.07 pick as the value for a future 1st when doing the math.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Startup trades are interesting because perceived value will vary wildly from person to person, so it ends up being one of the places where the most relative value will be moved in all of fantasy football.
It's too easy to make picks look/sound good. I like to put either players or rookie picks (both via ADP) to trades to get a better idea of the relative value.
This trade is essentially 1.02 + 2019 1st for 1.06 + 8.07/9.06.
So, looking at ADP that ends up being...
Gurley + 2019 1st
for
DJ + Rudolph + Doctson
:X . I think in most leagues if you offered DJ/Rudolph/Docston for Gurley you would get rejected without a counter. And that's BEFORE you asked for a future 1st on top of Gurley.
Another way to look at it is rookie picks (IE if 16 rookies have gone before pick 8.07 via ADP, then 8.07 would get you the 17th rookie which in a 12 team league is 2.05). Using that, it comes out to...
Gurley + 2019 1st
for
DJ + 2.06 + 2.08
Again, :X .
So to me, the team getting 1.02/2019 1st to got a huge increase in actual value once we actually put players to the picks while being able to make the trade look fair when people were only looking at pick numbers. If anyone were to actually offer the players that the trade will end up being it would probably wind up in the "worst dynasty trade offers" thread. But with pick numbers instead it ends up looking fair.
It's too easy to make picks look/sound good. I like to put either players or rookie picks (both via ADP) to trades to get a better idea of the relative value.
This trade is essentially 1.02 + 2019 1st for 1.06 + 8.07/9.06.
So, looking at ADP that ends up being...
Gurley + 2019 1st
for
DJ + Rudolph + Doctson
:X . I think in most leagues if you offered DJ/Rudolph/Docston for Gurley you would get rejected without a counter. And that's BEFORE you asked for a future 1st on top of Gurley.
Another way to look at it is rookie picks (IE if 16 rookies have gone before pick 8.07 via ADP, then 8.07 would get you the 17th rookie which in a 12 team league is 2.05). Using that, it comes out to...
Gurley + 2019 1st
for
DJ + 2.06 + 2.08
Again, :X .
So to me, the team getting 1.02/2019 1st to got a huge increase in actual value once we actually put players to the picks while being able to make the trade look fair when people were only looking at pick numbers. If anyone were to actually offer the players that the trade will end up being it would probably wind up in the "worst dynasty trade offers" thread. But with pick numbers instead it ends up looking fair.
True, though a lot of owners tend to have a hard time objectively analyzing their teams and think they are much stronger than they are. I love stockpiling future 1sts where I can because you just never know what will happen. Case in point last year in one of my leagues the best team had a loaded roster outside of a dependable RB2. I dealt the 2.01 to him for his 2018 1st so he could pick Marshawn Lynch. Then comes the season, and Aaron Rodgers, David Johnson, OBJ and Greg Olsen all go down for that guy, and I end up with the 1.03 this year. It’s an extreme example, but we’ve all seen stuff like that happen before.
JPeso
Footballguy
Yesterday, I gave 2.4, 2.9, 2019 2nd for a future 1st. I was happier with that then giving 2.4, 2.9, 2019 2nd for this year’s 1.10 even though I like this class. Knowing I had the 1.10 in hand for the trio of 2nds then prompted me to send the trio for the future 1st.
I agree with you I would rather the unknown then 1.10-1.12 known, unless the future is truly guaranteed to be 1.10-1.12, which we all know there are some teams you know will be very late because it is stacked. In that case, I agree with time value and taking the 1.10 this year.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I did 1 startup last year and I ended up trading a 5th round start up for a rookie 1st/2nd and a 6th round start up for a rookie 1st/3rd. I remember making these deals because the players in the 5th I wasn't too thrilled with and felt the risk was pretty high in if they'd hit or not so I just went for longevity in my teams capital by trading those away for future picks. It definitely is a weird balance but I didn't like what was available for me so I traded them away. The thing is I went into the draft with 2018 in mind so that definitely played a role.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Sometimes I just want to scream.
This is a mid stakes league ($300), team "A" is a notorious lowballer (in a couple of leagues with him). I knew he was making out on these deals but didn't fully grasp the absurdity of it all until this last trade today.
4/2
Team “A” receives: 1.3, 1.8
Other#1 receives: Gordon, Josh
4/5
Team “A” receives: 1.4, 1.5
Other#1 (same tm) receives: Tate,Golden, 1.8, 1.11
4/16
Team “A” receives: Brown,Antonio, Fitzgerald,Larry, Nelson,Jordy, Brady,Tom
Other#2 receives: Landry,Jarvis, Cooks,Brandin, 2.11, 2019 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th & 6th and Joe Flacco
4/29
Team “A” receives: Elliott,Ezekiel, Benjamin,Kelvin, Bryant,Martavis, Ertz,Zach, 3.6, 4.6
Other# 3 receives: 1.3, 1.4, 1.5
So Team other#1 essentially gave up the 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5 for Josh gordon, tate and the 1.11 (fwiw, owner took over tm last yr and traded off all his assets for future picks still has 1.8, 1.9 (some of the deals were pretty bad))
Team "A" took the same 3 picks and got Zeke, Ertz, Benjamin, Bryant, the 3.6 & 4.6
Or in total
Team "A" Gave
cooks, landry, josh gordon, golden tate, Flacco 1.11, 2.11 and all 2019 draft picks
And Got
Antonio Brown, Elliot, Ertz, Fitzgerald, Brady, Bryant, Benjamin, Nelson, the 3.6 and 4.6
Ugh
This is a mid stakes league ($300), team "A" is a notorious lowballer (in a couple of leagues with him). I knew he was making out on these deals but didn't fully grasp the absurdity of it all until this last trade today.
4/2
Team “A” receives: 1.3, 1.8
Other#1 receives: Gordon, Josh
4/5
Team “A” receives: 1.4, 1.5
Other#1 (same tm) receives: Tate,Golden, 1.8, 1.11
4/16
Team “A” receives: Brown,Antonio, Fitzgerald,Larry, Nelson,Jordy, Brady,Tom
Other#2 receives: Landry,Jarvis, Cooks,Brandin, 2.11, 2019 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th & 6th and Joe Flacco
4/29
Team “A” receives: Elliott,Ezekiel, Benjamin,Kelvin, Bryant,Martavis, Ertz,Zach, 3.6, 4.6
Other# 3 receives: 1.3, 1.4, 1.5
So Team other#1 essentially gave up the 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5 for Josh gordon, tate and the 1.11 (fwiw, owner took over tm last yr and traded off all his assets for future picks still has 1.8, 1.9 (some of the deals were pretty bad))
Team "A" took the same 3 picks and got Zeke, Ertz, Benjamin, Bryant, the 3.6 & 4.6
Or in total
Team "A" Gave
cooks, landry, josh gordon, golden tate, Flacco 1.11, 2.11 and all 2019 draft picks
And Got
Antonio Brown, Elliot, Ertz, Fitzgerald, Brady, Bryant, Benjamin, Nelson, the 3.6 and 4.6
Ugh
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
12 team ppr IDP
Ronald Jones + Chris Godwin
for
Evan Engram
Ronald Jones + Chris Godwin
for
Evan Engram
NeverEnough
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
He crushed all the trades but 4/16. The 4/16 trade he got destroyed on.
You just need to send more offers out.
Slider
Footballguy
You can just Google dynasty trade calculator and find a couple. I donated a while back to the one and then the losers made it a pay to play a month after they begged for donations. Kinda lame but oh well.
phillyspecial
Footballguy
Dynasty rookie only draft. PPR. Would you rather have 1.06 and Dede Westbrook or Hunter Henry?
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
FFPC
Team A trades 1.09
Team B trades 2019 1st and Larry Fitzgerald (let's call it mid, the pick could be 10 or it could be 1)
Team A trades 1.09
Team B trades 2019 1st and Larry Fitzgerald (let's call it mid, the pick could be 10 or it could be 1)
Slider
Footballguy
Wrong thread. This is for completed trades.
I'd rather Dede and 6 easily though.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
another FFPC
Team A trades 1.3
Team B trades 1.5 and Marlon Mack
Team A trades 1.3
Team B trades 1.5 and Marlon Mack
-OZ-
Footballguy
Kinda crazy but you're right. The same player going at 4 in some leagues goes around 10 in others. We tend to have our preferences but for pure value it's close this year.
I'll take diggs.
JPeso
Footballguy
Strongly prefer 1.4 side. I am not adding anything substantial to move from Bryant to Diggs, let alone this big of pick jump. I probably like Bryant ahead of market, and Diggs below market.
1.3 - I want to take the guy I want to take.
