I'll tell you what I should have said to your reply and regret not saying. I should have said "I think he'll play next year" instead of "he will play" I detest when people throw around absolutes when we don't know. Anyway glad we all good here and sorry to rest of you if this means I'm still talking about AB when I said I would not here except regarding a direct deal. I respect everyone's opinions who thinks he won't play next year or ever again. I don't feel that way, but I'd not bet my life on him suiting up again either, but I'd bet a late second on it. That is all.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (36 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The idea that Brady is going to hitch his career to a guy that was on his team for like two weeks (let alone a loon) is one of the funnier offseason nonsense stories.
I completely understand the agree to disagree aspect. My question was a little more pointed and not really about whether or not AB comes back. Since you mentioned the precedent part (I assume meaning there are others in this same boat) I was asking who is the comp? Vick/Hill are not really comps with regards to the way AB has handled himself or what he has done. Those two committed crimes and were punished for it. They weren't acting crazy to get traded by two different teams and then over the top even further to get cut from a 3rd team. They committed a crime, were punished, and then given another chance.
I just don't think we have seen anything comparable to Brown and was wondering who you thought compared to his actions. Has nothing to do with whether you think he plays in 2020 or not.
The bolded is worse so if you don't think they are precedent setting comps I don't what else to say.
He also did not get traded from Pittsburgh because he acted crazy. He got traded because after the owner of the team took the time to fly to an airport in Florida to meet him and try to smooth things over AB still wanted out and they tried and successfully honored his request. And I think it's naive to think the allegations he was facing did not impact NE's decision to cut him.
I would ask you take any more questions directed at me regarding AB to this thread.
That was the closest I could think of and he never really played again when we went overboard to start working out on his driveway for the cameras.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Reasonable offer, but I like Kamara myself.... He is 100% healthy and TB QB situation is murky. Odds are Winston returns and is on a short leash but if they get a reliable RB, Evans value goes down more.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I agree with your assessment for sure, but I'm also banking on Arians love of chucking the ball all over the field. I think no matter who the QB is (Winston, Rivers, Brady, etc.) he'll make sure its someone who's going to let it rip as opposed to a game manager who hands the ball off 30 times a game.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I definitely needed a WR so I guess I'd call it a positional need based trade...but I still think I should have gotten more for Kamara.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
12 team FFPC
Team A gives Gallup, 1.09
Team B gives 1.03, KeeSean Johnson
Team A gives Gallup, 1.09
Team B gives 1.03, KeeSean Johnson
barackdhouse
Footballguy
12 team FFPC superflex
Team A gives Gallup, Mack, 4.02
Team B gives Engram, Lockett
Team A gives Gallup, Mack, 4.02
Team B gives Engram, Lockett
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I am not so quick on that but I'm coming around on Gallup a bit. The SF one I just posted above is more of a slam dunk IMO.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Zealots IDP PPR
Gave: 2.02, James White, Grady Jarrett
Got: 1.08, 6.01
Now I have the 1, 2, 8, 11 and 2.1 picks. Should be a fun draft!
Gave: 2.02, James White, Grady Jarrett
Got: 1.08, 6.01
Now I have the 1, 2, 8, 11 and 2.1 picks. Should be a fun draft!
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I'm actually the total opposite and I legit like Gallup and have traded for him this off-season and drafted him a few times in redraft, was actually my second choice in the 8th in our little redraft we are in right now, have taken him much earlier then that. So this is not coming from an angle of being down on Gallup, I guess if anything not as high as the rest but not down on him.
1.9 and Gallup for 1.3 is closer to me because based on my best guess right now it takes me out of the RB market and for some leagues adding that extra roster spot is to much of a deal breaker. Really when I think more about if that offer was made to me on my existing FFPC teams I might only take it on one team, the other 5 that are FFPC rules I'd pass. I'd take the Engram side of that other trade in every FFPC league I'm in.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It's closer for me too. I have 4/8 teams where I could take him on like that. But would probably rather have 1.03. On the other one I'm def more on the Mack Gallup side by a lot. *shrugs*
The post specified it was FFPC so why would I look at it as anything other then an FFPC trade?
I personally put zero stock in trade calculators for evaluating trades on my side. Can't remember last time I used one but when I did was years ago to make someone and offer for a player I wanted and not wanting to insult them. The day I start relying on calculators to make my decisions for me is the day I'm done playing dynasty. At best they can be useful tools for crafting an offer but should not be used like a bible. I honestly can't see were that makes sense to me.
And yes I'm taking Cooper over Gallup because Cooper was better on a per target basis, slightly better on a per game basis and that's being kind and using week 17 for Gallup, I feel Cooper's second half dip was injury related and I think when they are both playing that Cooper is treated as the #1 and Gallup has better match ups.
I'm extremely high in Engram, also super low on Mack but I'd venture to guess me versus the view you and the others have on this trade boil down to difference in value we place on Engram.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Well I specified it was FFPC and we definitely get a lot of those posted here. Tons of people play in FFPC dynasty leagues here. But there is no doubt it changes the calculus.
For me to take a player such as in the Gallup/1.09 for 1.03 deal, I absolutely *must* factor in whether I have room. Easier in season or after the rookie draft but *really* hard before cuts to 16. It would force me to trade someone else or to cut someone with value.
You worried at all about impact on Evans if he has Teddy B, Rivers or Brady as his QB next year? I know Evans did great with Fitzpatrick but I just don't trust those QB's to push the ball down the field like he needs and believe the potential impact on one of them could impact Evans next season and his trade value.
For at least that reason I'd have personally at least waited till next week and the QB situation got resolved but that's me, maybe you are not concerned about a QB change.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I also don’t use calculators. It’s like looking at whatever site you used to figure out your “draft grade.” If you picked the guy they had ranked highest, you got an A! I suppose if you collected a ton of data based off of completed trades, draft statistics, etc it might be useful. I usually try to craft an offer that makes sense, unless I’m dangling a stud out there to see if I can get a big offer, in which case I usually have a return in mind and only a handful of teams probably meet the criteria.
Honestly I don’t know how you would write an algorithm to account for nfl futures with so many things like contracts and coaching and free agency that influence the value of a player, other than crunching numbers like age/stats. A players value is what your league mates will pay. When I turn down an offer and the guy replies that they’re actually losing value (a few times this has happened) and are mad I won’t trade I’m flabbergasted. Anyway, I just realized that this really isn’t the thread for this so I’ll stop there.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
12 team PPR dynasty
Gave: Hollywood Brown
Got: OJ Howard and 1.12 pick
I was loaded at WR in this league (Hill, Godwin, AJ Brown, McLaurin, Sutton, Hollywood Brown, Crowder, Preston Williams, Harmon, Jeffery, Fitzgerald) and needed TE help and RB help so figured this was a no brainer. I do think Lamar to Brown is going to be an awesome combo for years to come though.
Gave: Hollywood Brown
Got: OJ Howard and 1.12 pick
I was loaded at WR in this league (Hill, Godwin, AJ Brown, McLaurin, Sutton, Hollywood Brown, Crowder, Preston Williams, Harmon, Jeffery, Fitzgerald) and needed TE help and RB help so figured this was a no brainer. I do think Lamar to Brown is going to be an awesome combo for years to come though.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
The way I look at it, Rivers and Brady both love their TEs, and throw downfield a lot. But even if its more a game manager QB (Teddy, Dalton, even Tannehill) you'd think just being more accurate, and less turnover prone would help the entire offense have more possessions. So yeah, I think he'll be okay mostly due to Arians aggressive nature.menobrown said:
The first comment in bold is what I try and do. I look over my roster, teams roster I'm going to make and offer and see if it makes sense. I like value but in both in drafting and trading I'm not what anyone would call a value based decision maker.Snorkelson said:
Now I will say I see some trades go down and I think to myself stuff like I'd never have offered that trade to that team because I'd not have thought it made sense for the team. But if I'd known they'd take I sure wish I had. But I'm ok with that, win some lose some. I do it my way and feel like my league mates by and large respect me as someone not throwing crap at them all the time.
The second comment in bold is really what is key and actually sounds about what I tell my wife every time she comes home from the store with a "bargain buy" and I sound like an old record telling her stuff like you did not just get a $200 sweater for $30, you got a $30 sweater for $30 because the value of anything is what people will actually pay.
The third comment in bold is one of my trading annoyance but to be fair I have several. The no decision guy who lets your trades linger and die on the vine. The "I have no use for this guy" reply when the player you are offering seems clearly better then what they got at that position. The guy who sends you a story telling you why this deal is good for you like you don't know nothing. The guy who offers you a bad deal and says he just owns a ton of this player and is looking to "diversify". And lastly the comment in bold, when they get up in arms when I don't take a trade that says I win but to be honest this has not come up much in last few years. I got two leagues will people will rip you if you try and mention the trade calculator say's if "fair". My response when someone gets mad at me for not taking a trade the calc say's I won is that's when I'll try and use the trade calc to see if I can get it to say the other team won a trade but I'm shedding a guy I badly want to shed or obtaining someone I know they don't want to deal. In other words a trade they will never accept but my way of pointing out the trade calc can be a guide but if you want to live and die by it then live and die by it.
As for this not being the thread I'd say probably not but it's slow now and I think we may not have any other sports going soon so whatever discussion we can have without mucking a thread up with bickering seems like a good thing to me right now.
I can see a use for it just not my style but I think it's very useful if you want to try and offer something and don't want to insult people.
I actually use stuff like this thread, startup and redraft ADP with age/situation adjustments, trades I see in my other leagues and focus on what I think the team I'm making an offer needs. But sometimes I do have a player I really like and struggle to know what his value is so I can see a use for it and not knocking it. Just not my style and I don't like when people get mad at me over not taking a trade were it says "'I"m winning". After all, if it was that easy why would they be willing to lose?
rockaction
Footballguy
Truer words...why would they make the deal then, other than their own valuation, which might be different from yours, which might be different from the calc...
One thing. I definitely will bring up a calculator and need if I get castigated about an offer. This has happened in some leagues where guys just flat overrate their players. I feel that any chippy note gets a response with a calm explanation and a Point To The Calculator semi-admonishment/explanation.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I was in the process of joining a league when the commish hit me with “use ___ calculator(don’t remember which) when offering trades, if it doesn’t add up close the trade can be rescinded.” I didn’t join that league. I don’t have a problem if someone uses it or declines my trade because it doesn’t add up but personally felt it was ridiculous to rescind trades because of it.
I guess I have a couple different times that I trade.
1. Roster based needs- Win now or rebuild. Filling holes/depth, upgrading starter etc.
2. Other teams needs- this may be more in season but I’ve made a living flipping qbs during the season when injuries happen. If someone else has a gaping hole I usually see if I can float a guy
3. Bargain shopping- sometimes there are bargains to be had.
4. Sell an appreciating asset whose value is up- exploit the offseason hype train. Amazing what you can do when you offer after a favorable rotoworld article.
5. Offer I cant refuse- typically for a player I may not really want to trade but getting too much value.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
No doubt. I like trade calculators just as a tool. My goal isn't to find as much value as I can it is to win box scores and championships. Value itself is a tool to do that. I do like the calculators, though, just to keep me and my partners honest. It's not about finding a perfect match between trade partners it's about those outlier situations where maybe I am way too high or low on someone (on either side), or maybe my partner is. I don't know if I've ever heard someone say they use them exclusively without context. But yeah rescinding trades based on this is ridiculous.
Birdie048
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Thank you, I was very fortunate. Drafted Brown at 1.6, Hollywood at 2.1, and McLaurin at 3.6. I picked up Preston Williams on waivers (first one of the year after last pre-season game) Pretty much nailed it. But that certainly doesn't happen every year in all my leagues. I took Butler and Isabella in more leagues than I want to admit
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I hold out hope (for Isabella).Thank you, I was very fortunate. Drafted Brown at 1.6, Hollywood at 2.1, and McLaurin at 3.6. I picked up Preston Williams on waivers (first one of the year after last pre-season game) Pretty much nailed it. But that certainly doesn't happen every year in all my leagues. I took Butler and Isabella in more leagues than I want to admit
ffmail4me
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm either cutting him or Boykin. Tried to sell both of them but no bites. At all.I am hoping and holding
barackdhouse
Footballguy
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Your take is very reasonable and Brown is going to be litmus test. Not only does he appear to be off his rocker, he threatened Mayock on the way out. IIRC, there was almost a physical confrontation. Attacking front office staff might be the one act that discourages other teams from signing him. That said, we should never forget Jimmy Johnson said he would sign Charles Manson if he could run a 4.4 40.
Menobrown discussing AB in the trade thread32 Counter Pass said:
My thing with AB playing next year has always been more league, not team based. Out of the 3 teams he played for I thought no doubt he was incomparably worse in Oakland then the other two places. I can to a degree defend his actions in the other stops but he was indefensible in Oakland. Still NE scooped him up in less then a day. I always believed Rosenhaus when he said 3 teams wanted to sign AB last year but would not till they knew his status with the league.
I still believe that and believe while his market will be small the obstacle for him is not that no one wants but being allowed by the league to play. I might be wrong especially since he added another mark against himself with the offseason arrest. We'll see if/when he gets cleared by the league.
Again sorry people if I'm mucking up this thread, just try and respond to people especially when they provide thoughtful replies.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Think I did pretty well here, just made this trade in my 12 team PPR dynasty league. I needed (and still need) to cut down total players and picks so this is a start
Gave: Bell, Lindsay, Julio Jones
Got: 1.1, JuJu
Even though I think Jones outscores JuJu, that cliff has to come soon right? And I think 1.1 for Bell and Lindsay is a clear win. Thoughts?
Gave: Bell, Lindsay, Julio Jones
Got: 1.1, JuJu
Even though I think Jones outscores JuJu, that cliff has to come soon right? And I think 1.1 for Bell and Lindsay is a clear win. Thoughts?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I know some win now guys still really value Julio, I mean he is elite, but I think more savvy dynasty owners know the cliff is coming soon. I'm not sure he'll bring a 1st round in trade by this time next year. I was honestly a little surprised by the deal but happy to take it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I can’t see how the other side justifies making that deal. I’m not even sure it’s that much of an upgrade for a “win now” team.
