With $300 on offer for the winner, I felt that I couldn’t pocket it without giving something back in return. So although I doubt anyone will read this all the way through, here is what was going through my head each week. Hopefully this explain how I happened to win.
I would just like to say that this was one of the hardest challenges I have faced. The opposition was very strong and determined, and most of my good decisions were matched by my opponents. It probably came down to one lucky week, and a number of us could have been the lucky owner. On this occasion it was me, but if we did it again tomorrow I would expect a totally different result.
Props to those that took part and pushed me all the way to the line.
How I Won The Footballguys FFTOC Challenge
I like the FFTOC league style, but had never won anything played under those rules before. It seemed likely that every owner would be a committed follower of fantasy football, and would know the latest injury situation and news concerning players that had been promoted or demoted. In the unlikely event that any of the participants were not avid fantasy football owners, I knew that Footballguys would give them any information that they were missing.
Armed with that knowledge, I started to plan my simple strategy:
1 - I wanted to win or lose by making my own decisions, rather than following any player rankings for that week. I felt that this would separate me from some of the crowd, for good or for ill.
2 - As the league was to be decided on total points across 16 weeks, I wanted to use as many known studs as possible as soon as I liked their matchup for that week.
3 - After identifying players that I thought might be demoted during the season, I wanted to find a way to play them early.
4 - It seemed like a good idea to start players that had a bad history of missing time due to injury, so I gave some of them priority in the early weeks.
5 - As this league was played at My Fantasy League, I found that the “points allowed by position” information was readily available. After a few weeks I decided to use that information to help me determine when to start players.
6 - One idea was to put all my eggs in one basket and go with a quarterback and one or two receivers from the same team. I felt that this would give me consistent scoring, rather than relying on selecting the right player from the team in question. Also, with 16 x 3 receivers to start over the duration of the contest, I knew that playing two in a game that I considered a prime matchup was a good idea.
7 - I was hoping that several rookies would emerge and become featured backs or starting receivers. I tried to wait for that to happen where possible. If I saw that a player in a RBBC was the featured starter due to an injury to the other back, I tried to capitalize on that situation by starting him.
That was my initial strategy. I read the rules thoroughly to ensure that I wasn’t missing something important. The scoring includes points per reception and the defensive scoring was severely watered down and favored touchdowns over anything else.
Weekly Selections
Week One
Warner, Kurt ARI QB 27
Brown, Chris TEN RB 7
Dillon, Corey NEP RB 11
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 16
Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR 23
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 22
Watson, Ben NEP TE 8
Akers, David PHI PK 7
Redskins, Washington WAS Def 1
Starter Total: 122
I wanted to use Kurt Warner as soon as possible. I knew he was injury prone, and I saw him get replaced by a rookie while with the Giants. This was his highest score of the year but 18 others also selected him and negated any advantage I might have gained.
I figured that Chris Brown would either get injured, or that LenDale White would take his job. So I needed to use him early. This was his highest score of the year but was a wasted pick. Dillon is old by RB standards and I expected him to break down or be replaced quickly by Maroney. As a Bills fan, I knew they couldn’t stop the run. Maroney surprised me by being that involved so early and I only got an average week from Dillon.
I decided that the 49ers were a prime matchup and that it might be a good idea to play Fitzgerald and Boldin too. I wasn’t thrilled at the prospect of starting either with a rookie under center so I wanted to cash in early while Warner held the starting job. With the 49ers not being able to stop anyone last year, and the Cardinals at home in a new stadium, coming off a year in which they attempted over 600 passes, it seemed to make sense. Boldin had four bigger weeks, but I was happy with the return. Fitzgerald only had one bigger week. Coles had his fourth best game of the year against another opponent that I thought of as weak.
Watson only had three big games all year and this wasn’t one of them. But eight points was ok from a TE.
Akers managed a disappointing seven points against another weak opponent.
The Redskins and Ravens were two of my value defenses in 2006 drafts. I was right about the Ravens, but the Redskins totally blew it. They finished very strongly over the second half of 2005 and looked to have upgraded. I was wrong and they didn’t manage 10 points in a week all year.
Forrest Johnson was the only other owner to play Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin. He also had Dillon and Ben Watson, and it seems that our thoughts matched on many selections over the course of the season.
I was in fourth place after week one.
Week Two
Manning, Peyton IND QB 32
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB 18
Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 31
Harrison, Marvin IND WR 20
Owens, Terrell DAL WR 5
Wayne, Reggie IND WR 20
McMichael, Randy MIA TE 6
Graham, Shayne CIN PK 12
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 21
Starter Total: 165
Peyton Manning at home to the Texans was very appealing. I decided to use Manning against a weak opponent while everyone was healthy, and before the Colts’ running game started to click. His 32 points were one short of his best for the season.
Brown was playing the soft run defense of the Bills. He had four higher scores than this but 18 was within three of his top score of the season. Tomlinson only had three weeks with scores under 30 points. I was delighted with the 31 against the Titans at the time, but he had a few huge weeks and averaged 31.5 points per game over the season.
Using the strategy adopted in the opening week, I again played two receivers from the same team as my QB. Harrison ended up with five bigger games, and Wayne with four, but 20 points from each was a good return. I managed to match Owens against the Redskins’ weak secondary, but he only scored five points for his worst game of the year. I wanted to play him early in case he missed time for disciplinary reasons. I chose the wrong week.
McMichael had six points against the Bills. Nothing special there.
Shayne Graham contributed a very nice 12 points against the Browns, and nine other owners started him.
I went with the Ravens against the Raiders. Not only were the Ravens one of my sleeper picks in the draft, but they were facing Oakland who had just looked terrible against the Chargers in week one. Unfortunately, 16 other owners agreed with me and started them too. With only one point for a sack, 21 was a huge score and their third highest of the season.
After week two, I was up to second place. 165 was the joint highest score of the week with Forrest Johnson.
Week Three
McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 23
Dunn, Warrick ATL RB 6
McGahee, Willis BUF RB 17
Bryant, Antonio SFO WR 8
Chambers, Chris MIA WR 12
Moss, Santana WAS WR 11
Crumpler, Alge ATL TE 10
Stover, Matt BAL PK 12
Dolphins, Miami MIA Def 9
Starter Total: 108
After McNabb’s hot start, I decided to play him against the 49ers. He had five bigger games than this but 23 points was a reasonable return.
I feared that Dunn could get hurt if he had to handle the goal line carries, or see a reduced role as Norwood matured. But I definitely chose the wrong week to start him with the Saints in opposition. McGahee had 150 yards against the Jets but only scored 17 after failing to find the end zone. It was still within three of his highest score of the season, so it worked out well.
Antonio Bryant seemed to have established himself with two great weeks, but he floundered against the Eagles. I expected the 49ers to trail and throw to Bryant all day. Chambers had an average week against the Titans, but 12 points was ok. He never scored more than 20 all year. Santana Moss had two big games and I missed out and caught him in an average week. It looked good at the time with him facing the Texans.
Like six other owners, I thought that Crumpler was a good start against the Saints. 11 points was decent but not spectacular. I had trouble with TEs all year.
I started another kicker against the Browns after Graham did well in week two, and Stover paid off with 12 points.
On reflection, the Dolphins’ defense was playing much harder in the second half of the season. Nine points isn’t a bad return, and it was hard to spot the weak opponents with so little early season data to go on.
108 was a poor score and I slipped down to third place, seven points off the lead.
Week Four
Favre, Brett GBP QB 8
Jones, Julius DAL RB 18
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 0
Driver, Donald GBP WR 10
Glenn, Terry DAL WR 24
Jennings, Greg GBP WR 14
Clark, Dallas IND TE 3
Kasay, John CAR PK 3
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 14
Starter Total: 94
A disastrous week. In fact I was last out of the 21 teams that set a line up. After two huge weeks, Favre threw in an eight point game against the Eagles. Two picks and no TDs. Thanks Brett.
Julius Jones has an injury history that is bad enough to make me think it might be a problem, so I got him out of the way in week four. Other than one 20 point game, this was his best of the year. The Titans were the opponents. A huge error stopped me from getting any points from Brian Westbrook. After seeing him average 29.3 points through three weeks, and with him questionable, I wanted to play him before he broke down. As it turned out, he was declared inactive in the warm up on Monday night. I tried to change to Buckhalter, and found that rosters were locked for the week. In a way, that helped me. I tried to avoid ever starting players that appeared on the injury report from that point on.
I doubled up Driver with Favre and paid twice the penalty for choosing the wrong week. Glenn had a fantastic match up against the Titans, and seven owners started him. Two TDs were the reward. Greg Jennings did better than Driver and has not scored higher than 14 since the Packers’ bye in week six.
Dallas Clark had a terrible day against the Jets with 2/14.
After 22 the previous week, Kasay came back to earth against the Saints with just three extra points.
The Cowboys did well, scoring within two of their season high against the Titans.
This terrible week saw me slip from third to 13th and I was 85 points adrift of the leader.
Week Five
Manning, Eli NYG QB 18
Addai, Joseph IND RB 10
Jones, Thomas CHI RB 16
Bruce, Isaac STL WR 4
Burress, Plaxico NYG WR 20
Williams, Reggie JAC WR 16
Shockey, Jeremy NYG TE 2
Wilkins, Jeff STL PK 11
Colts, Indianapolis IND Def 2
Starter Total: 99
Another sub-100 total, but the top score was only 120 in what was a very low scoring week. I again targeted the Redskins with my QB and 18 points was just above Eli Manning’s season average. But he only threw one touchdown and that hurt.
I don’t know what I was thinking when I started Joseph Addai in week five against the Titans. I should have waited longer for him to emerge. I was rewarded with a mere 10 points. Thomas Jones scored 16 against the Bills for one of his better starts of the year.
The one Eli Manning touchdown was thrown to Plaxico Burress, and his 20 points helped justify starting those two as a tandem. I was lucky enough to get 16 points from Reggie Williams. He was coming off three good games from four starts and has only hit double figures once since that game. Isaac Bruce looked like a great start against the Packers’ weak secondary, but I guessed wrong and caught him in the wrong week.
I figured that Shockey would be healthier coming off a bye, and I expected Manning and the Giants to have a huge game. I was one week early with Shockey and he only had two points.
Jeff Wilkins started hot and had another 11 points against the Packers.
I guessed wrong on defense, starting the Colts against the Titans. Seven other owners made the same mistake.
After week five, I was in 11th place, 106 points behind.
Week Six
Bledsoe, Drew DAL QB 16
Bell, Tatum DEN RB 19
Portis, Clinton WAS RB 25
Brown, Reggie PHI WR 32
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR 26
Jackson, Darrell SEA WR 19
Gates, Antonio SDC TE 19
Vanderjagt, Mike FA PK 10
Broncos, Denver DEN Def 10
Starter Total: 176
With Bledsoe’s job starting to look less secure, I decided to play him against the Texans while I had the chance. Nine other owners agreed, and we were rewarded with two TDs.
Tatum Bell became the featured back for the Broncos in week five, but was up against the Ravens. When he faced the Raiders the following week, 13 owners decided to start him. His 19 points was his second highest score of the season. Clinton Portis was facing the Titans’ weak defense, and was just starting to look dominant again. Ten of us went with him and were rewarded with two scores for his second best start of the year.
Having already played Glenn and Owens, I couldn’t go with my previous strategy. I got lucky, catching Reggie Brown on his hottest week of the season. His 32 points against the Saints was 13 better than his next highest score and I was the only one to play him. Five of us started T.J. Houshmandzadeh as he had been getting more looks than Chad Johnson. His 26 points against the Bucs was his third best outing of the year. Darrell Jackson has been consistent but his 19 points were a nice bonus all the same. He averaged almost 17 points per game until injury struck.
Finally, I caught a TE at the right time. Antonio Gates had his biggest game of the year to that point with 5/78/1 against the 49ers. Unfortunately for me, 10 other owners started him too.
Vanderjagt had 10 points against the Texans and I would take that any week.
After finally noticing just how bad the Raiders were, I started the Broncos’ defense against them. So did 16 other owners. 10 points is pretty good in this format.
My 176 points was the highest of the week and I moved up to 5th place and sparked a revival. Forrest Johnson was 50 points clear of me at that stage.
Week Seven
Pennington, Chad NYJ QB 12
Jones, Kevin DET RB 27
Taylor, Fred JAC RB 11
Galloway, Joey TBB WR 0
Smith, Steve CAR WR 21
Williams, Roy DET WR 11
Witten, Jason DAL TE 11
Scobee, Josh JAC PK 1
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 15
Starter Total: 109
Pennington vs the Lions looked promising. He had surprised me by looking better than I expected through the first six weeks and I thought that the Lions’ defense was particularly weak. Four owners agreed with me but 12 points was a poor week.
Kevin Jones was huge in point per reception leagues before he got injured. In this game, he had six receptions and a touchdown through the air. The Jets have been weak against the run all year and it was time to play Jones before he got hurt. Eight other owners started him too. 27 points was within three of his highest score of the year. Fred Taylor was up against the Texans. He did reasonably well but could not score, so the 11 owners that started him were held to 11 points.
Galloway is one of the hardest players to predict. He can have huge weeks or score nothing. I made a bad call and didn’t get a single point from him against the Eagles as he saw just six targets. It was hard to get bad production from Steve Smith in this format before Jake Delhomme was hurt. His 21 points were the fourth highest total from him all year but I was happy with it. I was anticipating a shootout against the Bengals. On reflection, Roy Williams did not have a great matchup at the Jets. I played him in the wrong week, and got lucky as his two catches yielded one touchdown.
Jason Witten had a quiet start to the season. I was fortunate and played him in the game where Tony Romo took over from Bledsoe in the second half. After not being targeted at all by Bledsoe, Witten had four catches and 72 yards from five second half targets against the Giants.
Scobee was held to one extra point as the Jaguars disappointed against the Texans.
The Raiders continued to be a prime matchup for opposing defenses and the Cardinals managed 15 points. Five sacks, two interceptions and three fumble recoveries gave the Cardinals’ defense its second highest score of the season. Seven other owners played them in the same week.
After 109 points I stayed in 5th place, 57 points behind the leader.
Week Eight
Grossman, Rex CHI QB 25
Barber, Tiki NYG RB 12
Green, Ahman GBP RB 28
Berrian, Bernard CHI WR 9
Johnson, Bryant ARI WR 2
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI WR 18
Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE 20
Gould, Robbie CHI PK 13
Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def 8
Starter Total: 135
This was a much better week for me. I liked the matchup against the 49ers in week one, and I still liked it in week eight. Rex Grossman was playing well at home and coming off his worst game of the season. I figured that the Bears would give him the chance to redeem himself against a weak pass defense. 252 yards and 3 TDs were a good return and his second best week of the season. Five other owners played him too.
I didn’t get much from Tiki Barber against the Bucs. Most owners played him a week later and got 25 points against the Texans. Ahman Green was a popular choice against the Cardinals, and six other owners were rewarded with 28 points as Green scored twice for his biggest game of the season.
Again, I used the two main receivers from the same team as my QB. Muhammad responded with 18 points and only had two bigger games all season. I caught Berrian on a bad week, but nine points was better than nothing. With Larry Fitzgerald out, I tried to get something from Bryant Johnson while he was a bigger part of the offense. One catch was not what I was looking for.
Tony Gonzalez had three better games than this, but I’ll take 20 points from my TE every time. He was in a rich vein of form and was in the middle of a three week run of 20 points or over.
I waited a long time to use Robbie Gould after his fast start, but along with seven other owners I finally cashed him in and got 13 points. With the Bears coming off a bye week and a lucky win the previous two weeks, I expected them to go off against the 49ers at home.
The Steelers have disappointed all year on defense, and eight points against the Raiders was less than I had hoped for.
135 points was a good week, and was within 15 points of the weekly high. As that team played Tomlinson, I was happy to get anywhere near its 150 points. I moved up to fourth place 43 behind Forrest Johnson’s team.
Week Nine
Vick, Michael ATL QB 18
Bell, Mike DEN RB 12
Taylor, Chester MIN RB 23
Colston, Marques NOS WR 29
Furrey, Mike DET WR 11
Williamson, Troy MIN WR 1
Heap, Todd BAL TE 12
Longwell, Ryan MIN PK 3
Chargers, San Diego SDC Def 15
Starter Total: 124
After two weeks over 30 points, 10 owners decided to play Vick at the Lions. He turned the ball over three times and had well below his weekly average.
Mike Bell was coming off a 28 point game against the Colts, and Tatum Bell was out with turf toe injuries. I didn’t like the matchup against the Steelers, but figured that I should play him while I was sure he would be the main ball carrier. 12 points was all I got. Chester Taylor helped recover the situation with the third biggest game of the year against the 49ers. Eight receptions was a season high and helped boost his score to 23 points.
Marques Colston was coming off a huge game and Joe Horn was out. With Tampa Bay in opposition, I felt it was time to use Colston. He rewarded me with 11/123/1 for 29 points. The second receiver had been effective against the Falcons, so I chose to play Mike Furrey. His 11 points were satisfactory. I thought that if Troy Williamson was ever going to contribute, it would be against the 49ers. Unfortunately he can’t catch the ball to save his life (or job) and came up with a single point in week nine.
Heap was coming off a streak of five TDs in six games. He couldn’t score against the Bengals, but at least he added 12 points to my total.
Ryan Longwell couldn’t repeat Gould’s success against the 49ers and was held to one field goal.
The Browns have been generous to opposing defenses all year, and so I used the Chargers against them. Five sacks, a pick, a fumble recovery and a TD earned me 15 points.
I lost significant ground to Forrest Johnson and Bill Smathers, but 124 points was only just below my season average and kept me in with a chance.
Week Ten
Kitna, Jon DET QB 16
Lewis, Jamal BAL RB 7
Thomas, Anthony BUF RB 11
Edwards, Braylon CLE WR 12
Stallworth, Donte' PHI WR 26
Ward, Hines PIT WR 20
Winslow, Kellen CLE TE 14
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK 5
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def 3
Starter Total: 114
Jon Kitna was facing the 49ers and I had been matching players against them all season. His 16 points were less than I expected, but not a complete failure. My two main rivals also played him that week.
After seeing Jamal Lewis starting to get more carries when Belichick took over the play calling, I wanted to use him against the Titans. I played him a week too soon and only got seven points. He had 32 in the next game. Anthony Thomas got the start with Willis McGahee hurt. Because it was unclear how long McGahee would miss, I decided to use Thomas as soon as I could. It was a good matchup against the Colts and he had over 100 yards but couldn’t score.
Donte’ Stallworth returned from injury and I hoped that he was fully healthy after the Eagles’ bye week. I got lucky and he matched his highest score of the year with 6/139/1 and 26 points. Hines Ward had a 43 point game in week seven, but only one owner played him. This was his next biggest game and I was happy to get 20 points from him. Braylon Edwards only had three catches against the Falcons, but one went for a touchdown and 12 more points.
I figured that Kellen Winslow was effectively the second receiver for the Browns, and so I played him against the Falcons. 14 points was a pretty good return.
Kickers proved to be a problem for me all year. Vinatieri could only contribute five points against the Bills.
The Jaguars had a week to forget and lost to the Texans. Three sacks stopped me from getting zero, but it wasn’t much.
I lost six more points to my two main rivals, but I was happy to stay so close considering some of the players I used. I slipped to 5th and was 77 points behind Forrest Johnson at that stage.
Week Eleven
Almost everything went my way in week eleven. Drew Brees only had one better week, and threw for 510 yards and 31 points against the Bengals.
I played Larry Johnson in the only game where he didn’t have a reception, but he was facing the Raiders and ran for 154 yards and two scores. Willie Parker was coming off two huge games and was up against the Browns. He was held in check for much of the game but added a second TD late, and ended with 23 points.
Lee Evans had two huge touchdowns in the first quarter against the Texans. I had achieved success by starting receivers against them earlier in the year and knew that they were vulnerable deep. Evans is one of the biggest deep threats in the game. He ended the game with 11/265/2 and broke the Bills’ record for receiving yardage in a game. His 50 points were extremely timely and only one other owner started him that week. I missed out on Chad Johnson’s 49 point game in week ten, but had the Bengals/Saints game pegged as a shootout. I decided to ride Johnson while he was hot and he went off with 6/190/3 and 43 more points. Mark Clayton was coming off a big game and faced the Falcons. He did pretty well and added 14 points to my total.
I caught L.J. Smith on a good day and he had his best game of the year. A late score gave him 19 points.
Josh Brown let me down at the 49ers with just two extra points.
11 other owners liked the Chiefs’ match up against the Raiders but we were all disappointed as they scored just three points.
My strategy in week eleven was to use some of my studs to try and get back into contention. I certainly didn’t expect to score that many points, and 212 remained the highest score in the league all season. I made up over 100 points on each of the two top teams and moved into a 38 point lead.
Renewed Effort
After unexpectedly taking the lead as a result of my big week, I started to take a lot more interest in the league. Up to that point, I was playing for fun and did not think I had much chance of winning. I knew that I had carefully played lesser players when they were temporarily elevated to starters, but I didn’t keep a check on any of my rivals and assumed that they had made similar moves.
With a 38 point lead, I knew that five weeks was a very long time to hold on to it. I decided that to give myself the best chance possible, I would spend some time looking at which players remained at each position. I then planned the weeks in which I would play them. With 10 games in the books, statistics were starting to become more useful and the weaker opponents easier to identify. Having done that, I knew roughly what I would do for the final five weeks. I had a good idea of how many strong plays were left at each position, and where I needed to find another starter or two if the situation presented itself.
Week Twelve
Palmer, Carson CIN QB 25
Henry, Travis TEN RB 8
Jackson, Steven STL RB 34
Henderson, Devery NOS WR 26
Johnson, Keyshawn CAR WR 10
Walker, Javon DEN WR 12
Cooley, Chris WAS TE 18
Kaeding, Nate SDC PK 3
Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def 11
Starter Total: 147
Carson Palmer only had one bigger game all year and I felt that the Browns would yield plenty of points. He didn’t let me down, and three touchdowns helped him reach 25 points.
After writing the recap for the Giants’ game the previous week, I knew that they couldn’t stop the run. Henry was coming off a big game and I thought he would continue in the same fashion. Eight points was a major disappointment. Steven Jackson had a number of big games, and the 49ers looked like an easy opponent. He scored and had 192 total yards and nine receptions which added up to 34 points.
Devery Henderson matched his biggest game of the year with 26 points against the Falcons. I liked the matchup and Colston was out. It was good that I started him as both my main rivals spotted the opportunity and used him that week. The Redskins’ secondary was really struggling and Keyshawn Johnson looked to be a good play. He didn’t accumulate much yardage, but at least he caught six passes. I missed out on Javon Walker’s big games earlier in the year. With Jay Cutler expected to assume the starting role after this game, I wanted to get something from Walker while Plummer was under center. 12 points was less than I hoped for but I just didn’t trust a rookie quarterback to be effective.
Chris Cooley had scored in four of his previous five games. After seeing that the Panthers were allowing so many points to the position, I started Cooley. A 66 yard touchdown in the fourth quarter had me rejoicing.
I expected the Chargers to blow out the Raiders, but Kaeding only added three extra points on the day.
Three fumble recoveries helped the Vikings to 11 points. Not a bad return for a defense in this format.
147 wasn’t the top score of the week, but I only lost eight points to Forrest Johnson who started Addai for 47 points to move himself back into second place. I was clinging to a 43 point lead.
Week Thirteen
Brady, Tom NEP QB 17
James, Edgerrin ARI RB 12
McAllister, Deuce NOS RB 15
Caldwell, Reche NEP WR 19
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR 25
Holmes, Santonio PIT WR 3
Miller, Billy NOS TE 0
Carney, John NOS PK 10
Patriots, New England NEP Def 15
Starter Total: 116
After planning my plays the previous week, I knew that Brady faced the weakest opposition of all my potential QB starters. Unfortunately, Brady chose to rely on the running game more that week. The Lions looked to be a good match up, but despite having a 300 yard game, Brady didn’t throw a touchdown pass.
Edgerrin James had his first 100 yard game of the season against the Rams, but he didn’t score or catch any passes and was held to 12 points. My two main rivals started him too. All three of us also played McAllister against the 49ers. He had 136 rushing yards, without scoring, for 15 points. At that stage, I was happy to see that my main rivals were starting the same players as it limited their opportunity to close the gap. I just want to make it clear that all starting line up details are unavailable until after the rosters lock so this is not a criticism.
The Packers’ secondary has struggled all year, especially against the number two receiver. Jerricho Cotchery had his biggest game of the season with 9/99/1 for 25 points. I noticed that Reche Caldwell had emerged as the Patriots’ main receiver and chose to play him along with Brady. He did well with eight receptions and 112 yards for 19 points. I was torn whether to start Nate Washington or Santana Holmes with Ward out for the Steelers. I chose wrong and saw Holmes get just three points.
A hideous lapse meant that I started Billy Miller instead of Heath Miller. I was horrified, and it hurt even more when Billy Miller dropped a pass in the end zone. With that lapse and the wrong choice between Holmes and Washington, I lost 19 points to my closest rival. At least it happened at the TE position rather than somewhere more important, but I was very careful after that.
Another kicker started against the 49ers. This time it paid off with 10 points from Carney.
The Lions were in a mess and any defense looked like a good play against them. Eight of us started the Patriots and were rewarded with 15 points.
Stupidity cost me 19 points in week thirteen. After doing all my research to find the best plays, I can’t believe that I was so careless. Starting the wrong TE meant that I dropped 11 points right there. Not believing that Washington was a better start than Holmes cost me eight more. It would have been hard to live with those errors if I had failed to hold on to my lead. I should have extended my lead by eight points but ended up losing 11. At least I was still ahead, but the margin was down to 32 points.
Week Fourteen
Tony Romo didn’t help me in week fourteen with a poor start against the Saints. Dallas had a terrible night and I only got 12 points from the QB position.
Frank Gore had five games of 20+ points in six weeks and I managed to start him for one of them. The Packers couldn’t stop him and he had 168 total yards and a score. Rudi Johnson had one bigger game than this, but 26 points against the Raiders was more than acceptable. I felt that I made good use of my RBs that week.
In contrast, I had a bad week from the wide receivers. David Carr looked terrible the previous week, but I had planned to use Andre Johnson against the Titans and I went ahead with it. He didn’t score, but at least he caught seven passes for 14 points. I should have played him much earlier in the year. With Hasselbeck looking better, I chose to use Branch against the Cardinals. Eight points was less than I hoped for. I expected the Ravens to concentrate on stopping Larry Johnson and I hoped that Kennison might benefit from that situation. I was wrong and he only caught one pass.
Vernon Davis had three games behind him after returning from injury, and Eric Johnson was out. With the Packers in opposition, it looked like a good week to go with Davis. A 52 yard touchdown in the fourth quarter justified my decision.
Jeff Reed was facing the Browns. I almost pulled him after seeing the weather conditions, but decided to leave him in. I was happy to get nine points.
With the Bears close to clinching the number one seed, I wanted to make use of them while they were still playing their best defense. They didn’t pressure Bulger as much as I expected, but Devin Hester saved me with two touchdowns in the return game.
133 points was not a huge total, but my two closest rivals each scored under 100. My lead was up to 69 points and I started to breathe a little easier.
Week Fifteen
Garcia, Jeff PHI QB 19
Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 13
Bush, Reggie NOS RB 8
Booker, Marty MIA WR 0
Jones, Matt JAC WR 10
Mason, Derrick BAL WR 4
Miller, Heath PIT TE 5
Rackers, Neil ARI PK 11
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 0
Starter Total: 70
Two weeks to go and I changed my plan. After week eleven, I had Matt Hasselbeck slated to start in week fifteen. But when I saw that the weather forecast was predicting high winds, I changed my mind. Jeff Garcia had been playing well and I decided to plug him in against the Giants. He didn’t look convincing but his 19 points were better than Hasselbeck’s 13 so I was happy.
I didn’t use Shaun Alexander early in the season, so I planned to start him as late as possible once he was injured. That said, the Chargers in week sixteen was not an appealing prospect. With Seattle at home and the weather conditions poor, I felt that Alexander would see the ball a lot. 73 yards and a score was less than I hoped for, but my main rival started him too. Reggie Bush had totaled 79 points in the previous two weeks and the Saints were suffering injuries in the receiving corps. Bush let me down with an eight point game, but both my two closest rivals played him too.
My receivers did very little. Matt Jones did manage a touchdown against the weak Titans’ secondary, but only had 12 receiving yards. Derrick Mason had four points against the even weaker Browns. Luckily, Forrest Johnson thought the same as me and started both. Booker faced the Bills and I expected Nate Clements to take Chambers. Unfortunately, Booker had to leave the game before he registered a single point. I missed several opportunities to get good points from Booker earlier in the season.
At TE I had a choice of three. Desmond Clark, Jerramy Stevens or Heath Miller. I chose Miller against the Panthers as it looked like a good matchup, and sat back and watched as Stevens had 17 points and Clark had 32 points.
Neil Rackers contributed 11 points against the Broncos to help my score a little.
I made a late change from the Panthers’ defense and started the Seahawks. I was thinking that the poor conditions would mean turnovers and general mayhem. I even thought it could be a shutout. That decision backfired and I scored zero on defense.
70 points was a pitiful score, but only two teams had over 100. My closest rival only had 73 and I was still 66 points ahead with some good players available for use in the final week.
Week Sixteen
Bulger, Marc STL QB 38
Barber, Marion DAL RB 0
Betts, Ladell WAS RB 31
Curry, Ronald OAK WR 22
Hackett, D.J. SEA WR 7
Holt, Torry STL WR 9
Clark, Desmond CHI TE 7
Tynes, Lawrence KCC PK 8
Packers, Green Bay GBP Def 6
Starter Total: 128
And so to the final week. After looking at the players started by my opponents, I felt a lot more confident:
Forrest Johnson went with Jeff Garcia, Cedric Benson, Ron Dayne, Ronald Curry, D.J. Hackett, Travis Taylor, Jerramy Stevens, Ryan Longwell and the Packers’ defense.
So three of our selections were the same, meaning that the other six players had to make up 66 points. With Bulger and Holt facing a weak opponent at home, and with my starting RBs looking stronger, I felt that I should hang onto the lead.
Marc Bulger repaid my faith by having a huge game. He threw for 388 yards and four TDs, and had 27 yards rushing. Those 38 points were only one shy of the highest score by a QB all year in our format.
I faced a tough choice at running back. With two starters, I was choosing between Ladell Betts, Maurice Jones-Drew and Marion Barber. Jones-Drew should not have been available to me as I was sure I had played him earlier in the season, but after checking I realized that I was wrong. The Patriots seem to have the ability to shut down the best weapon on the opposing team, so I decided to bench Jones-Drew. He proceeded to break a 74 yard touchdown and ended the game with 35 points. Betts had a big game too, rushing for 129 yards and two scores for 31 points. Barber scored zero after failing to find the end zone on three early opportunities from inside the five.
I paired Torry Holt with Bulger, but it was Isaac Bruce that did most of the damage. Nine points from Holt was a poor return. If I had kept Bruce back for this matchup, I would have done a lot better. When Aaron Brooks was declared inactive, I thought that the Ronald Curry pick would be a bad play, but Andrew Walter found him 11 times and he had over 100 yards for 22 points. Hackett caught a couple of early passes but was held to seven points.
Desmond Clark did not repeat his week fifteen performance, and was held to seven points.
Lawrence Tynes missed a 44 yard field goal and the Chiefs decided against two tries of over 50 yards. Tynes still managed an acceptable eight points.
The Packers only allowed one score in the game and it was on offense. Unfortunately, that blew a potential shutout and they finished with six points.
Conclusion
This was a tough league to be a part of. I realized that I was up against 21 owners that knew a much as I did, or perhaps more. It’s difficult to win a 12 team league if the owners are strong, so I wasn’t expecting to come out on top in a league with 22 owners. The final margin of victory was 97 points.
My biggest errors were starting Westbrook when he was questionable and getting zero points, playing Billy Miller over Heath Miller by being careless, and failing to spot that I hadn’t used Jones-Drew before week 16. Those errors probably cost me 50 or 60 points. Then I played Marion Barber over Jones-Drew in the final week and lost another 35, but I got away with that one.
The difference between winning and losing came down to my 212 points in week eleven. I don’t claim that it was due to any particular skill. I identified some good matchups and happened to have the right players available. Any one of us could have fielded that lineup.
This was a lot of fun. If such a contest is held next year, I would suggest allowing lineup changes throughout the week rather than locking rosters at the start of the first game. I think a couple of owners missed the Thursday deadline and scored zero as they were unable to field a team that week.