I am going to go with Black voters are not a monolithic voting block. Recent events, or should I say recent candidates or administrations or tweets from Presidents might encourage them towards historical identity politics, but I don't believe it to be so. Blacks are diverse in their backgrounds, increasingly so, and in spite of efforts to keep them monolithic they are breaking out. A candidate presuming their vote might be in for a surprise. A party, less so, but a candidate, I think this is increasingly true.