fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Cause they have no faith in Lidge to save a 1 run game. Probably the right decision........
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***OFFICIAL Philadelphia Phillies 2010 Thread*** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Lehigh98
- Start date
Finless
Footballguy
Oh, my bad, pitcher's duel with Wainwright.
It was the right decision to leave Hamels in. He was pitching well and to finish this would have been great for his confidence. It was terrible decision by the idiot who ran onto the field as Hamels was in his windup for his first pitch. Too bad for Hamels if that had anything to do with him giving up the two hits that followed.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
It happened again?
crewmember
Footballguy
Disagree, he was already at 110 pitches going in. This isn't September, it would have took 130 pitches to end the inning, can't keep that up the whole season. If a fan on the field really made the difference then he shouldn't have been out there in the first place. Having him leave the game clean would have given him great confidence. 8 shut out innings with a win is plenty to make a pitcher feel good.
He had an 11 pitch inning against the meat of the STL lineup in the 8th and he won't pitch on less than 4 days rest. He could have finished the game. We agree to disagree, I guess. I think he wanted (needed) the CGSO and that's why he was in there.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
pitch count smitch count. the guy was throwing a gem let him finish it. 114 isn't the end of the world.
I liked the interview in the clubhouse afterwards. Very modest about what he did.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Forgot how sweet the powder blues are live!!! 
They should bring them back as the alternate!
They should bring them back as the alternate!
crewmember
Footballguy
Halladay logs 4th complete game - but is that a good thing?
Charlie Manuel is a pragmatic man in a pragmatic sport that became the national past time because of its appeal to a pragmatic population. You either hit balls, or you miss them. You either miss bats, or you hit them. And, when it all adds up, you either win, or you lose.
Success is measured in 24-hour increments. At the end of the day, you either completed your job, or you didn't. And regardless of the outcome, you try it again tomorrow.
When Manuel wakes up in the morning, his objective is to win that night's game. The best way to ensure success in the long-term is to focus on success in the short-term. Organizations pay people to worry about the big picture. They pay managers to win.
It is a philosophy that has endeared him to many fans in a city that lives shift-to-shift. And when you look at his background, the roots are obvious. When you are lying on a hospital table after a quadruple bypass, you have no choice but to pour every ounce of your being into the here-and-now. Pace yourself with tomorrow in mind and tomorrow might never come. He was a big league bench player who never knew when his next opportunity would arrive. He was fired in Cleveland less than a year after winning a division title. The lesson he seems to have taken from all of it? Nothing is guaranteed.
All of this is important to note when examining his decision to leave Roy Halladay in for all 132 pitches and nine innings of a 2-1 loss to the Pirates.
You might think the Phillies can afford to sacrifice a game in April against the lowly Pirates when they are 11 games over .500 with a five-game division lead. You might think that calling on Jose Contreras to pitch the ninth inning wouldn't even count as sacrificing a game.
But in Manuel's mind, keeping Halladay in the game was his best chance of winning that night's game. And he seems to have a kindred spirit in the ace righthander, who said last night that he could not recall a time when he had told a manager that he was ready to be taken out.
Manuel faced three moments in the final three innings where a call to the bullpen would have made sense: First, when Halladay was due up to bat with one out in the seventh inning and the tying run on first. Second, after an eighth inning in which he gave up a pair of singles and finished with 111 pitches. And, finally, with two out in the ninth inning and his control eluding him and his pitch-count at 126 and runners on first and second.
In the short term, all three moves appeared to pay dividends. In the ninth, Halladay struck Delwyn Young out on a 3-2 curveball to end the frame. In the eighth, he threw just 12 pitches, working out of a jam by getting Ryan Church to ground into a double play. And while Halladay's sacrifice bunt attempt failed in the bottom of the seventh and the Phillies would finish the frame having failed to score a run, his moderate pitch count and the fact that he had allowed just five hits all game provided plenty of justification for leaving him in.
But a baseball season is a marathon. And when your goal is a World Series title, the long-term is often as important as the short-term.
Which is why, even though Manuel and Halladay both believe that his recent workload will not lead to consequences down the road, the question is at least worth asking:
Is riding Halladay as hard as they have through his first nine starts worth the risk of wearing him out down the stretch?
Yesterday marked the first time in Halladay's career in which he threw at least 118 pitches in four straight starts. He has thrown more pitches during that stretch than any other in his career. The 132 pitches he threw last night were one short of his career-high, set last summer.
Halladay has logged more innings (70.1) and thrown more pitches (1,006) in his first nine starts than he has at the start of any other season in his career.
In his three starts prior to last night's 132-pitch effort against the Pirates, Halladay had thrown 118, 119 and 121 pitches, his total number of innings decreasing each time (from nine against the Mets, to seven against the Cardinals, to 6.1 against the Rockies).
On one hand, Halladay has been one of the most consistently durable starters in the majors over the last five years. His previous high in innings through nine starts was 69.2 in 2008, and his previous high in pitches was 982 in 2004.
He also pitched his two most recent starts on five days rest.
If anybody has earned the benefit of the doubt, it is Halladay.
On the other hand, Halladay has never played a season that is an extra month long, which the Phillies hope theirs will be. He is currently on pace to at least tie his career-high of 36 starts in a season, and hopes to have at least four starts in the postseason.
When asked if he is confident that Halladay can handle the early workload without effects down the road, Manuel was confident.
"I know he can," the Phillies manager said.
On that, both he and Halladay agree.
Charlie Manuel is a pragmatic man in a pragmatic sport that became the national past time because of its appeal to a pragmatic population. You either hit balls, or you miss them. You either miss bats, or you hit them. And, when it all adds up, you either win, or you lose.
Success is measured in 24-hour increments. At the end of the day, you either completed your job, or you didn't. And regardless of the outcome, you try it again tomorrow.
When Manuel wakes up in the morning, his objective is to win that night's game. The best way to ensure success in the long-term is to focus on success in the short-term. Organizations pay people to worry about the big picture. They pay managers to win.
It is a philosophy that has endeared him to many fans in a city that lives shift-to-shift. And when you look at his background, the roots are obvious. When you are lying on a hospital table after a quadruple bypass, you have no choice but to pour every ounce of your being into the here-and-now. Pace yourself with tomorrow in mind and tomorrow might never come. He was a big league bench player who never knew when his next opportunity would arrive. He was fired in Cleveland less than a year after winning a division title. The lesson he seems to have taken from all of it? Nothing is guaranteed.
All of this is important to note when examining his decision to leave Roy Halladay in for all 132 pitches and nine innings of a 2-1 loss to the Pirates.
You might think the Phillies can afford to sacrifice a game in April against the lowly Pirates when they are 11 games over .500 with a five-game division lead. You might think that calling on Jose Contreras to pitch the ninth inning wouldn't even count as sacrificing a game.
But in Manuel's mind, keeping Halladay in the game was his best chance of winning that night's game. And he seems to have a kindred spirit in the ace righthander, who said last night that he could not recall a time when he had told a manager that he was ready to be taken out.
Manuel faced three moments in the final three innings where a call to the bullpen would have made sense: First, when Halladay was due up to bat with one out in the seventh inning and the tying run on first. Second, after an eighth inning in which he gave up a pair of singles and finished with 111 pitches. And, finally, with two out in the ninth inning and his control eluding him and his pitch-count at 126 and runners on first and second.
In the short term, all three moves appeared to pay dividends. In the ninth, Halladay struck Delwyn Young out on a 3-2 curveball to end the frame. In the eighth, he threw just 12 pitches, working out of a jam by getting Ryan Church to ground into a double play. And while Halladay's sacrifice bunt attempt failed in the bottom of the seventh and the Phillies would finish the frame having failed to score a run, his moderate pitch count and the fact that he had allowed just five hits all game provided plenty of justification for leaving him in.
But a baseball season is a marathon. And when your goal is a World Series title, the long-term is often as important as the short-term.
Which is why, even though Manuel and Halladay both believe that his recent workload will not lead to consequences down the road, the question is at least worth asking:
Is riding Halladay as hard as they have through his first nine starts worth the risk of wearing him out down the stretch?
Yesterday marked the first time in Halladay's career in which he threw at least 118 pitches in four straight starts. He has thrown more pitches during that stretch than any other in his career. The 132 pitches he threw last night were one short of his career-high, set last summer.
Halladay has logged more innings (70.1) and thrown more pitches (1,006) in his first nine starts than he has at the start of any other season in his career.
In his three starts prior to last night's 132-pitch effort against the Pirates, Halladay had thrown 118, 119 and 121 pitches, his total number of innings decreasing each time (from nine against the Mets, to seven against the Cardinals, to 6.1 against the Rockies).
On one hand, Halladay has been one of the most consistently durable starters in the majors over the last five years. His previous high in innings through nine starts was 69.2 in 2008, and his previous high in pitches was 982 in 2004.
He also pitched his two most recent starts on five days rest.
If anybody has earned the benefit of the doubt, it is Halladay.
On the other hand, Halladay has never played a season that is an extra month long, which the Phillies hope theirs will be. He is currently on pace to at least tie his career-high of 36 starts in a season, and hopes to have at least four starts in the postseason.
When asked if he is confident that Halladay can handle the early workload without effects down the road, Manuel was confident.
"I know he can," the Phillies manager said.
On that, both he and Halladay agree.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
Was just looking at Halladay's baseball-reference page and saw that his real name is Harry Leroy Halladay. Maybe this is common knowledge, but i never knew it.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I can't recall the last time all of the big guns have been in a funk for this long of a stretch. Only way this team can win right now is if they pitch a shutout. They need Rollins back soon to provide a spark.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
So if the Phils keep tanking and the Braves keep winning, do they attempt to trade Werth at the trading deadline? They should be able to bag some very good prospects and Dominic Brown may not even be a terrible downgrade.
belljr
Footballguy
Well the last 2 years prior to this weren't they like 12-24 both Aprils.They stared out hot this year and we were spoiled. Not hitting the panic button, yet.
belljr
Footballguy
A 1:05 game against Cleveland, I think you shouldn't have any problems getting ticketsETA: Phillies websites has tix available
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Rebirtha
Footballguy
Nice. It was SRO when I posted that.ETA: Only 400 section seats. Guess I'll keep my eye out.
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
It's still June so no reason to hit the panic button yet but this team looks awful. They're getting no pitching behind Halladay and their bats are cold. They also have one of the toughest stretches of the season coming up. I understand they're a second half team but they just don't look right this year. After 2 great playoff runs in a row, i can see how the team would be set up for a disappointment. It's very hard to mainain that type of success 3 years in a row.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I agree that they have "too much talent" on the hitting front. I don't agree that they have "too much talent" on the pitching front. If you don't think there are some serious concerns with this team, you're delusional.........
otello
Footballguy
So, are they the best team in the NL or not? Make up your mind, fred.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
No they're not absolutely not. If I said that before, I was dead wrong.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Wow, was that a sweet throw by Utley to get Kubel trying for the Inside-The-Parker.
otello
Footballguy
Won't see that again for two months.
eagles2007
Footballguy
i heard 'at least two months.' abandon ship.Won't see that again for two months.
crewmember
Footballguy
month old but just saw it recently, good luck at Cliff Lee's value... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/c...es-trade-value/
Over the next six weeks, most of the General Managers of contending teams will ask themselves the same question – what am I willing to give up to get Cliff Lee? Lee is the big fish in the upcoming trade season, as he is arguably the best left-handed pitcher in baseball right now, and is just a year removed from one of the most impressive post-season performances we’ve ever seen.
Each team will come to a different conclusion about what to offer based on their own team’s circumstances and how they value different players, but let’s try to offer a helping hand by quantifying Lee’s trade value as of today.
If a team traded for him tomorrow, they’d likely be able to extract 20 starts from Lee the rest of the season, as most teams have about 100 games left on their schedule. No one is going to be able to put together a deal that quickly, however, so we’ll estimate 18 starts in order to give them enough time to make a trade.
Over the last three years, Lee has made 74 starts and has been worth +16.8 wins over a replacement level starter, or about .23 wins per outing. Multiply that rate out over 18 starts and you come up with just over +4 wins for the rest of 2010. His performance has been so good the last few years that you don’t have to regress the projection that much. To account for the chance of injury or some kind of unexpected performance drop, you probably knock it down to +3.5 wins, or something in that range.
The marginal value of a win last winter was about $4 million. Using that figure, we’d estimate that the remainder of Lee’s 2010 regular season to be worth about $14 million. But teams are now operating with more information than they had over the winter.
Contenders and pretenders have been sorted out to a degree, and teams that actually have a chance to play in October have a better likelihood of seeing that come to pass than they did before the season began. Thus, while teams do factor post-season performance into their off-season pricing, it becomes more valuable at the trade deadline, as teams adjust their rosters for the playoffs. In reality, the marginal value of a win in July is almost certainly higher than it is in December, due to the increased certainty with which GMs can project their playoff chances.
I would estimate the marginal value of a win in July to be closer to $5 million than $4 million, which would put Lee’s value at $18 million instead of $14, but it’s in the same general range. A team that trades for Lee doesn’t just get his 2010 season, however, but also is basically guaranteed two draft picks when he leaves via free agency (or they get to re-sign him, which is a value in and of itself), since he’s a lock for Type A free agency.
If we use the numbers that Victor Wang concluded, the value of the compensation picks is about $6 million, a significant figure. Given that 2011 is projected as an exceptionally strong draft class, it might even be a little bit higher, but we’ll stick with that value for now.
That would make the asset that is Cliff Lee worth between $20 and $26 million. He’s due about $5 million left of his 2010 salary, so we’ll subtract that amount from the overall total, and get $15 to $21 million in surplus value.
What does that look like in terms of prospects? According to the values Wang came up with, that’s a hitting prospect in the 25-75 range or a top 10 pitching prospect, plus maybe another lesser piece or two in order to win the bidding. Historically, that is basically what we see. The Indians obtained Matt LaPorta and change for CC Sabathia two years ago. The A’s got Brett Wallace and change for Matt Holliday last year. That is basically the established return for a rent-a-star.
If you’re a GM shopping for Cliff Lee this summer, that looks to be the price – $15 to $20 million worth of value, which translates into one high quality prospect and a few fillers.
Over the next six weeks, most of the General Managers of contending teams will ask themselves the same question – what am I willing to give up to get Cliff Lee? Lee is the big fish in the upcoming trade season, as he is arguably the best left-handed pitcher in baseball right now, and is just a year removed from one of the most impressive post-season performances we’ve ever seen.
Each team will come to a different conclusion about what to offer based on their own team’s circumstances and how they value different players, but let’s try to offer a helping hand by quantifying Lee’s trade value as of today.
If a team traded for him tomorrow, they’d likely be able to extract 20 starts from Lee the rest of the season, as most teams have about 100 games left on their schedule. No one is going to be able to put together a deal that quickly, however, so we’ll estimate 18 starts in order to give them enough time to make a trade.
Over the last three years, Lee has made 74 starts and has been worth +16.8 wins over a replacement level starter, or about .23 wins per outing. Multiply that rate out over 18 starts and you come up with just over +4 wins for the rest of 2010. His performance has been so good the last few years that you don’t have to regress the projection that much. To account for the chance of injury or some kind of unexpected performance drop, you probably knock it down to +3.5 wins, or something in that range.
The marginal value of a win last winter was about $4 million. Using that figure, we’d estimate that the remainder of Lee’s 2010 regular season to be worth about $14 million. But teams are now operating with more information than they had over the winter.
Contenders and pretenders have been sorted out to a degree, and teams that actually have a chance to play in October have a better likelihood of seeing that come to pass than they did before the season began. Thus, while teams do factor post-season performance into their off-season pricing, it becomes more valuable at the trade deadline, as teams adjust their rosters for the playoffs. In reality, the marginal value of a win in July is almost certainly higher than it is in December, due to the increased certainty with which GMs can project their playoff chances.
I would estimate the marginal value of a win in July to be closer to $5 million than $4 million, which would put Lee’s value at $18 million instead of $14, but it’s in the same general range. A team that trades for Lee doesn’t just get his 2010 season, however, but also is basically guaranteed two draft picks when he leaves via free agency (or they get to re-sign him, which is a value in and of itself), since he’s a lock for Type A free agency.
If we use the numbers that Victor Wang concluded, the value of the compensation picks is about $6 million, a significant figure. Given that 2011 is projected as an exceptionally strong draft class, it might even be a little bit higher, but we’ll stick with that value for now.
That would make the asset that is Cliff Lee worth between $20 and $26 million. He’s due about $5 million left of his 2010 salary, so we’ll subtract that amount from the overall total, and get $15 to $21 million in surplus value.
What does that look like in terms of prospects? According to the values Wang came up with, that’s a hitting prospect in the 25-75 range or a top 10 pitching prospect, plus maybe another lesser piece or two in order to win the bidding. Historically, that is basically what we see. The Indians obtained Matt LaPorta and change for CC Sabathia two years ago. The A’s got Brett Wallace and change for Matt Holliday last year. That is basically the established return for a rent-a-star.
If you’re a GM shopping for Cliff Lee this summer, that looks to be the price – $15 to $20 million worth of value, which translates into one high quality prospect and a few fillers.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
holy lord, that was one hell of a comeback.
Domination
Footballguy
Just to add insult to injury with Cliff Lee. It was being reported earlier today that the Phillies turned down a deal with the Yankees for Lee, and the deal included Montero. Good thing that we "replenished" the farm system with that crap from the Mariners.
crewmember
Footballguy
Polly back in lineup today! Let's split this series.
Victorino CF,
Polanco 3B,
Rollins SS,
Howard 1B,
Werth RF,
Ibanez LF,
Ruiz C,
Valdez 2B,
Hamels P
Victorino CF,
Polanco 3B,
Rollins SS,
Howard 1B,
Werth RF,
Ibanez LF,
Ruiz C,
Valdez 2B,
Hamels P
Please See Mine
Footballguy
Kendrick down to AAA, Andrew Carpenter called up
Thank god. At least it is something to make it a little interesting. Feeling very stale these days.
Thank god. At least it is something to make it a little interesting. Feeling very stale these days.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
wth, letting blanton bat with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a tie game?
Billy Bats
Footballguy
I never did hear an explanation for that, but at the time "Wheels" was in complete agreement.
For whatever that's worth.Anyway, so whattaya know, another injury!! Woohoo! Victorino taken out with an oblique strain, possible Dominic Brown siting in South Philly sooner than expected??If it's anything serious, I would imagine this squashes any trade of Werth. Not an easy year, but they've battled back to 3.5 out, with Atlanta struggling. Howard carrying the team again, like he usually does. this time of year.
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Domonic Brown being called up.
It's about GD time.
It's about GD time.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
His options were Valdez who was batting .188 against LHers or Raul Ibanez like .210 against LHers. If there was 1 out he probably would have pinch hit, but with two outs, those odds aren't really good (even though Blanton was batting .000 against LHers so they were better then Blanton). At that point, Blanton was pitching well and his pitch count wasn't high. Plus, Manuel probably didn't want to go to the bullpen for three innings.I never did hear an explanation for that, but at the time "Wheels" was in complete agreement.
crewmember
Footballguy
That was nice.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Reports are Phils and Astros have agreed on a deal for Roy Oswalt. Awaiting approval from Oswalt.
Don't like any deal for Oswalt that requires his 2012 option to be picked up unless Houston is sending money back in the deal. Oswalt has had back issues and it's very risky for the Phillies to lock in for 2 years after this. For this year however, it has to make them the favorites in the NL if they make the playoffs.
Don't like any deal for Oswalt that requires his 2012 option to be picked up unless Houston is sending money back in the deal. Oswalt has had back issues and it's very risky for the Phillies to lock in for 2 years after this. For this year however, it has to make them the favorites in the NL if they make the playoffs.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
I'll give Amaro a lot of credit assuming this goes through.I agree with the potential long-term risk with this, but the reality is that they have a core group right now that can win and they are doing what they can to do it. This is what every fan should want. If we have to suffer in 2 years, then we just have to accept that.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Oswalt will handcuff the Phillies payroll for the next two years.In 2011: With Oswalt the payroll will already be 150M. That's 10M more then what they have right now and that's only for 18 players. They have FA: Werth, Moyer, Durbin, Contreras and ARB: Dobbs, Kendrick and Francisco. Werth without a doubt is gone. The rest are replaceable but the Phils will have to have a 155M payroll unless Houston is sending 10-15 in cash as part of the deal. In 2012: With Oswalt the payroll will already be 102M committed to only 9 players. They have FA: Rollins, Ibanez, Madson, Romero, Baez, Dobbs, Schneider, Gload and ARB: Hamels, Kendrick, Francisco and potentially Happ if he's not traded in the Oswalt deal. With no help in AA or AAA on the horizon, 2012 looks scary.1B: Howard2B: UtleySS: ???3B: PolancoLF: ???CF: VictorinoRF: BrownC: RuizBench: No one signedP: HalladayP: OswaltP: ???P: BlantonP: ???Bullpen: No one signedYIKES.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
Phillies supposedly have the greatest collection of single-A prospects in baseball, supposedly. I have to hope that by 2012, we can get a couple guys out of there.
Look, everyone can feel free to bump this in 2012 if I am #####ing about a 35-55 team at the break, but right now I'm willing to roll the dice. Going to the WS parade was probably the greatest experience of my life as a sports fan. God knows that I can endure lean years, so when I have a serious chance to get another magical experience, I am going to take it.
Look, everyone can feel free to bump this in 2012 if I am #####ing about a 35-55 team at the break, but right now I'm willing to roll the dice. Going to the WS parade was probably the greatest experience of my life as a sports fan. God knows that I can endure lean years, so when I have a serious chance to get another magical experience, I am going to take it.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I'm on board with getting Oswalt, I just don't want to have to pick up the 2012 option. If they do, they're fooked in 2012. Especially if Oswalt's back give out and they're stuck with his salary.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
I'm in, we can worry about 2012 in 2012. I'm not willing to throw away this year because of problems 2 years from now. The chance of a third WS series in a row? This is epic, and the golden years of Phillies baseball. Do what you have to and win now.
Please See Mine
Footballguy
I get it.Though, if they pick up the option and Oswalt holds up and they even just sign Hamels for 2012 at his arbitration number (assuming continued good performance), then I think that 2012 will be just fine.I actually am starting to worry about Utley though. There was a time when I would have said just make sure that Utley and Howard are in the middle of the lineup and we'll figure the rest out, but now I don't know what to think. He is continually getting injured/worn down.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
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