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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter JZilla
- Start date
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
He hasn't looked right for the last couple days. Hopefully he won't be out more than 15 days. Should be fine regardless but a competent Ian Desmond would sure help cover for his absence. Maybe the last two days are a sign that he's fixed whatever was ailing him.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
The bench is now Tyler Moore, Matt Den Dekker, Dan Uggla, Emmanuel Burriss, and Jose Lobaton. Ouch.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Not impressed at all with how Williams is handling the pitching staff this year.
A lot of people say the biggest challenge for the manager is managing the bullpen. It's really not that hard to figure out that Scherzer, Zimmermann, Fister, Strasburg, and Gonzalez are your starting rotation. But the bullpen on every time is mostly comprised of pitchers who failed as starters. The manager needs to mix and match and assign roles to maximize their effectiveness. Some teams have an expensive bullpen arm or two, but not an entire bullpen.
Also, lots of teams have bullpen issues at the beginning of the season. The key is to figure out what you have and get better as the year goes along. As an example, the Orioles bullpen started off pretty shaky. They changes some of the pitchers, adjusted some roles, and they are playing a lot better now. I am not sure the Nationals bullpen is that much better than they were earlier in the season. Obviously having the starters pitcher 48 shutout inning over six games helps them out. But once things normalize, the bullpen may still look like a glaring weakness.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I thought Williams left Scherzer in way too long last night. He was clearly gassed and save that stuff for October not June against the phillies.
A couple of weeks ago, it looked like Williams was leaving his starters in much longer than usual because he was afraid to go to the bullpen. He certainly has a well rested bullpen going into yesterday.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Yeah, I thought the same last night. After Max gave up the hit, I thought he was going to be taken out shortly thereafter.
Swing 51
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
7/7 Nationals lineup vs CIN
Taylor CF
Espinosa 3B
Harper RF
Ramos C
Robinson 1B
Uggla 2B
Desmond SS
den Dekker LF
Scherzer P
Just like the drew it up in Spring Training!
Prediction vs Cueto:
0-4
0-4
0-0, 4 BBs
0-4
0-3
0-3
0-3
0-3
0-3
Taylor CF
Espinosa 3B
Harper RF
Ramos C
Robinson 1B
Uggla 2B
Desmond SS
den Dekker LF
Scherzer P
Just like the drew it up in Spring Training!
Prediction vs Cueto:
0-4
0-4
0-0, 4 BBs
0-4
0-3
0-3
0-3
0-3
0-3
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Giolito (2), Trea Turner (9), and Joe Ross (31) made the BA top 50 mid-season prospect list. Reynaldo Lopez made the BP top 50 and Difo was mentioned as being close. Turner might not play SS in the majors but he's adjusted he has already made some adjustments with his swing that should make him a strong everyday player. So the Nats got Turner and Ross for Souza. Ross profiles as a #3 starter and Turner is going to be an above average MIFer who probably will end up at 2B.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Yeah, Harper and Desmond screwed up my prediction with their unexpected hits and Harper only walking once. Got the number of plate appearances right though!
Seriously, this is a real problem. I don't think outsiders realize how terrible the Nats' lineup is at the moment. Assuming Escobar and Span are still out a bit longer, which sounds like the case, the only starters who have OPS above .700 are Harper, Espinosa and a 30 year old minor league journeyman who can't play defense. Harper is the only one above .750. That's similar to the Mariners, the worst offense in the league, although I'd probably give the edge to the Mariners right now because they don't have to start a bunch of sub.600 OPS guys like Desmond, Uggla and Den Dekker. The ASB will help a ton, but if the reinforcements don't arrive soon after this team could easily end up back around 500 by the end of the month.
Seriously, this is a real problem. I don't think outsiders realize how terrible the Nats' lineup is at the moment. Assuming Escobar and Span are still out a bit longer, which sounds like the case, the only starters who have OPS above .700 are Harper, Espinosa and a 30 year old minor league journeyman who can't play defense. Harper is the only one above .750. That's similar to the Mariners, the worst offense in the league, although I'd probably give the edge to the Mariners right now because they don't have to start a bunch of sub.600 OPS guys like Desmond, Uggla and Den Dekker. The ASB will help a ton, but if the reinforcements don't arrive soon after this team could easily end up back around 500 by the end of the month.
This may not be the best time to panic on the Nats.
They are currently 8 games above 0.500. Fangraphs has their chances of winning their division at 89.1%. I guess that is part of being is such a weak division. All this with all of the injuries they have. Note that they have the Mets expected win total at 81.3 games. So even 0.500 at the end of July puts them in good position to win their division.
Also, you are expecting reinforcements to help out. Werth and Zimmerman weren't batting any better than their replacements. Rendon not much better either. I am not clear Werth and Zimmerman will improve the offense that much. I am much more concerned that age and injuries have caught up with Werth and his best days are behind him.
They are currently 8 games above 0.500. Fangraphs has their chances of winning their division at 89.1%. I guess that is part of being is such a weak division. All this with all of the injuries they have. Note that they have the Mets expected win total at 81.3 games. So even 0.500 at the end of July puts them in good position to win their division.
Also, you are expecting reinforcements to help out. Werth and Zimmerman weren't batting any better than their replacements. Rendon not much better either. I am not clear Werth and Zimmerman will improve the offense that much. I am much more concerned that age and injuries have caught up with Werth and his best days are behind him.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Fangraphs projections don't account for current injuries. Future offensive production is some combination of your production to date + their preseason projections. They also don't account for a potential Mets trade for a bat, something that seems likely to happen.
And I think you're wrong about Werth, Zimmerman and Rendon not helping out that much. It's possible that a Robinson/Moore platoon at 1B can match Zimmerman, I'll give you that one. But Rendon would clearly help. He'd be replacing either Uggla (if Escobar misses an extended period of time) or Desmond with Espi moving over to short. That's a massive upgrade on both sides of the ball. And while Werth was struggling this season before the injury, it appears the current plan to replace Span is Taylor to CF and den Dekker, who is absolutely horrible, to LF. Werth could bat with one hand and outproduce den Dekker's .500 OPS on the season.
If Escobar and Span unexpectedly bounce back in the next day or two and we get back to the lineup that was good enough to handle the Giants, no problem. A lot of these concerns melt away. Same is true if Rendon returns soon- he's eligible to come back Friday. But if we are forced to field the punchless lineup we've rolled out against the Reds for much longer, that's a serious concern. The sort of thing that will necessitate trading someone like Joe Ross or Reynaldo Lopez or Wilmer Difo to get a bat.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I think they'll be VERY reluctant to do it and will try other solutions, including maybe Espinosa to LF. But at some point they may not have a choice. If Escobar, Espinosa and Rendon are healthy and producing at their recent levels they have to be in the lineup. Of course that assumes Escobar's injury is short-term and Espi's renaissance continues, both of which may be wishful thinking. And it assumes that Desmond is unable to pull his head out of his ####, which is starting to look like a reasonable assumption.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah Rendon is clearly the second best bat on the team IMO and Werth is an upgrade over whatever the team has in LF simply for the OBP. That's why batting him down in the lineup never made sense to me. Span, Werth, Rendon, Harper would be my top 4.
Rendon should be back right after the break and Werth to follow shortly thereafter. No reason to panic, it's the NL East after all.
Rendon should be back right after the break and Werth to follow shortly thereafter. No reason to panic, it's the NL East after all.
Swing 51
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
It sounds like Escobar isn't expecting to miss more than another day or two, so that should help quite a bit even without Span. I wish they had McLouth or some other practical option to take over LF with Span out, though. Assuming we're talking about a few weeks, which appears to be the case, you HAVE to find a way to do better than den dekker.
They had all their players back at one point and showed their preferred lineup. With Rendon, they want to send Espinosa to the bench and play Rendon at 2nd.
With Zimmerman back, Robinson becomes the 4th or 5th outfielder, depending if they keep Taylor or send him back to the minors.
Werth would go to LF, replacing Taylor, Robinson, den Decker, and Moore.
The Nationals would be very hesitant to send Taylor to the minors with Span's back acting up unpredictably.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Fans here are largely timid IMO, Redskins fans maybe the exception. Detroit is one of the most negative fan bases out there and I lived in Texas before moving here, so this is nothing.
All the Nats fans leaving the 18 inning playoff game last year was a bit jarring though, never would happen in Detroit. Zilla and I stayed though! :natsfan4life:
Swing 51
Footballguy
Yeah a buddy and I stayed thru it all. One ####### cold night as I did not dress appropriately.Doctor Detroit said:All the Nats fans leaving the 18 inning playoff game last year was a bit jarring though, never would happen in Detroit. Zilla and I stayed though! :natsfan4life:Swing 51 said:
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
The problem was...as you know, they stopped selling beer in the 7th. Next time i go for a cold playoff game: flask.Yeah a buddy and I stayed thru it all. One ####### cold night as I did not dress appropriately.Doctor Detroit said:All the Nats fans leaving the 18 inning playoff game last year was a bit jarring though, never would happen in Detroit. Zilla and I stayed though! :natsfan4life:Swing 51 said:
And congrats for staying through it all, you are one of the top 15k Nats fans.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I stayed for it all too, with my 71 year old dad. I totally understand why people left, though. My old man was in agony from sitting in that stadium chair in the freezing cold that nobody dressed for (because the game started at 4 PM). We had to walk the concourse for the last two innings. Other people were huddled in the bathrooms listening on the radio to try to stay warm. Also, they didn't just cut off beer in the 7th, they cut off most of the concessions a couple innings later too. And there were lots of kids there because the start time; there's no chance you can talk an 8 year old into sitting through a 7 hour game in the freezing cold with no food or drink available because that's what "good fans" do.The problem was...as you know, they stopped selling beer in the 7th. Next time i go for a cold playoff game: flask.Yeah a buddy and I stayed thru it all. One ####### cold night as I did not dress appropriately.Doctor Detroit said:All the Nats fans leaving the 18 inning playoff game last year was a bit jarring though, never would happen in Detroit. Zilla and I stayed though! :natsfan4life:Swing 51 said:
And congrats for staying through it all, you are one of the top 15k Nats fans.
Anyway, rant over. Shady call by the Nats to postpone last night. Makes up for the time the Phils tried to play one a week or two ago in the face of a big storm because they wanted to sneak one in when Harper was out.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Two problems with this:I stayed for it all too, with my 71 year old dad. I totally understand why people left, though. My old man was in agony from sitting in that stadium chair in the freezing cold that nobody dressed for (because the game started at 4 PM). We had to walk the concourse for the last two innings. Other people were huddled in the bathrooms listening on the radio to try to stay warm. Also, they didn't just cut off beer in the 7th, they cut off most of the concessions a couple innings later too. And there were lots of kids there because the start time; there's no chance you can talk an 8 year old into sitting through a 7 hour game in the freezing cold with no food or drink available because that's what "good fans" do.The problem was...as you know, they stopped selling beer in the 7th. Next time i go for a cold playoff game: flask.Yeah a buddy and I stayed thru it all. One ####### cold night as I did not dress appropriately.Doctor Detroit said:All the Nats fans leaving the 18 inning playoff game last year was a bit jarring though, never would happen in Detroit. Zilla and I stayed though! :natsfan4life:Swing 51 said:
And congrats for staying through it all, you are one of the top 15k Nats fans.
Anyway, rant over. Shady call by the Nats to postpone last night. Makes up for the time the Phils tried to play one a week or two ago in the face of a big storm because they wanted to sneak one in when Harper was out.
1). Bringing kids to a playoff game in the first place
2). Everyone was in agony, 18 inning games are agonizing.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I suppose there's really not much reason to defend the fan base. After all, for a franchise that's barely ten years old and has never won a single playoff series or had a Cy Young or MVP winner we seem to be keeping some pretty good company.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
If anything I'd say we're getting fewer visiting fans than we did when our attendance totals were much lower. For some strange reason it seems like Philly and Atlanta fans just don't make the trip to Nats Park in significant numbers any more. It's like they just disappeared! I wonder where they went.Naysayers will spout off about how half of those in attendance are rooting for the visiting team. Some truth to that but lots of red in the stands every night
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
You want to talk about catching someone at the right time, check out our most recent lineup from the Wednesday night game that was postponed.
I say we each take a W, flip a coin for Sunday's result, and call it a first half.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Span to the DL, which was obvious. He already said he wouldn't play this weekend so that makes 11 days between his last game and the first post-ASB game.
Zimmermann to paternity leave this weekend, which means Scherzer on Sunday I assume. Offer for a coin flip to determine Sunday's result withdrawn, MattFancy!
Zimmermann to paternity leave this weekend, which means Scherzer on Sunday I assume. Offer for a coin flip to determine Sunday's result withdrawn, MattFancy!
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Zimmermann pitching tomorrow but Scherzer could pitch Sunday anyway
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
That's fine, but Imo the majority of Nats fans are fans of another team first. They have been my NL team since the day I found out they were moving to DC, and they have moved their way up to my fifth favorite team in professional sports. I attend games and probably watch or listen to half the games. I think that puts me as a top 20 percenter. You are top 1%, but that's your town.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Max will lead the Nats to the WS
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
There is an article in the Washington Post today on Ian Desmond. It covered his contract situation.
After the 2013 season, Desmond turned down a $107M, 7 year contract with the Nationals. He subsequently signed at 2 year, $17.5M contract, which covers his last two years of arbitration eligibility. So the two sides agree that 2014 and 2015 is worth $17.5 M.
That means Desmond turned down a 5 year, $89.5M contract for years 2016-2020, just under $18M per year. That is a pretty fair offer from the Nats. Obviously you cannot factor in how badly Desmond is playing this year. I wonder how much more Desmond thought he could get. I don't think many shortstops get more than $20 M per year.
After the 2013 season, Desmond turned down a $107M, 7 year contract with the Nationals. He subsequently signed at 2 year, $17.5M contract, which covers his last two years of arbitration eligibility. So the two sides agree that 2014 and 2015 is worth $17.5 M.
That means Desmond turned down a 5 year, $89.5M contract for years 2016-2020, just under $18M per year. That is a pretty fair offer from the Nats. Obviously you cannot factor in how badly Desmond is playing this year. I wonder how much more Desmond thought he could get. I don't think many shortstops get more than $20 M per year.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I've always found it a little odd that everyone assumed 5/90 was below market value for Desmond. The contract people usually cite is Andrus' deal for 8/120, which included six post-free agency seasons. But Andrus was 24 at the time and would have been 26 when he hit free agency. Desmond was 28 and will be 30 when he reaches free agency. Certainly 2013 Ian Desmond was better than 2012 Elvis Andrus, but I'm not sure he was so much better that it makes up for the huge difference in their ages under the new contracts. The Rangers got Andrus for his peak seasons most likely; Desmond is likely already past his peak.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The Nats have faced/will face, in order:
Kershaw
Greinke
Harvey
DeGrom
Syndegaard
Liriano
Locke (vs Scherzer, this and Zimmermann/Syndegaard may be the only two in which they're favored)
Burnett
Cole
Fernandez
They would be very lucky to be in first after that run. Thankfully it should get a lot better after that, as they rehabbing guys come back and the schedule eases up.
Kershaw
Greinke
Harvey
DeGrom
Syndegaard
Liriano
Locke (vs Scherzer, this and Zimmermann/Syndegaard may be the only two in which they're favored)
Burnett
Cole
Fernandez
They would be very lucky to be in first after that run. Thankfully it should get a lot better after that, as they rehabbing guys come back and the schedule eases up.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'm excited for the media overreaction to Harper's comments on Greinke getting all the calls. Already Deadspin has ignored the horrible strike one call on his AB in the 7th in its analysis, and also some other ridiculous calls he got at other points- like this amazing called third strike on a 2-2 count on Taylor in the 8th. And of course he couldn't have been nicer or more complementary about Kershaw the previous day, but nobody will mention that.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Or maybe the 2012 season was an outlier and what we've seen the past 1.5 years is really how good Desmond really is. Never really been a big fan of his, but his career .730 OPS with 20 homer power is about who he is. He's not as good as his 2012 year, or as bad as this one. With Turner and Difo both probably ready to contribute in 2016, seems almost like a foregone conclusion Desmond is gone.
