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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (1 Viewer)

11 pitchers on roster. A little surprised Belisle didn't make it over an extra OF with Gio and Ross unlikely to pitch deep in their games.  

Roark pitching game two as well so bullpen better be rested going to LA. 

 
Sounds like Dusty is considering Scherzer on short rest in Game 4.  That would make Game 5 a Roark/Ross/Lopez (with Roark on short rest after the rainout).  Gonna do what he has to do unless Roark and Gio come up big today and tomorrow.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Sounds like Dusty is considering Scherzer on short rest in Game 4.  That would make Game 5 a Roark/Ross/Lopez (with Roark on short rest after the rainout).  Gonna do what he has to do unless Roark and Gio come up big today and tomorrow.
Great win today.

Roark probably got lifted early enough that he might be able to go Game 5. I have to think that is the plan.

 
Great win today.

Roark probably got lifted early enough that he might be able to go Game 5. I have to think that is the plan.
Definitely possible, but I feel like maybe Scherzer has said he's really not a fan of pitching on short rest, so that will be a factor in the decision.  I think Roark would do well though.

Honestly I wasn't even thinking about the series yesterday. I just wanted a home playoff win to enjoy.  Feels like everything else is gravy after that.  Low expectations, I know, but considering we were 1-5 in home playoff games before yesterday ...

 
That felt so good. In 12 years of watching this team, that seems like the first time my butt completely unclenched in a big spot. Wow  :excited:

 
We want to see Kershaw today, right?  If they go Urias/bullpen today they're probably slight favorites both today and in the possible Kershaw/Scherzer rematch on Thursday night (based on line from Game 1). Taken together, Kershaw on short rest + Urias/bullpen game or Rich Hill on short rest seems preferable to Urias/bullpen game + Kershaw on normal rest.

I understand the media and clubhouse pressure will be on Roberts to start Kershaw today but I think that works in our favor.

I'm also not sure why there's any confusion about who should start for the Nats today. Ross is used to starting and has the perfect demeanor for a road start in a huge playoff game.  Lopez has shown he can be effective in long relief out of the pen, which Ross hasn't really done.  Seems like a no-brainer :shrug:

 
We want to see Kershaw today, right?  If they go Urias/bullpen today they're probably slight favorites both today and in the possible Kershaw/Scherzer rematch on Thursday night (based on line from Game 1). Taken together, Kershaw on short rest + Urias/bullpen game or Rich Hill on short rest seems preferable to Urias/bullpen game + Kershaw on normal rest.

I understand the media and clubhouse pressure will be on Roberts to start Kershaw today but I think that works in our favor.

I'm also not sure why there's any confusion about who should start for the Nats today. Ross is used to starting and has the perfect demeanor for a road start in a huge playoff game.  Lopez has shown he can be effective in long relief out of the pen, which Ross hasn't really done.  Seems like a no-brainer :shrug:
has there ever been a study done on the effect of short rest on a pitcher?  without looking at the stats i'd rather see Urias and Kershaw to Kershaw/Hill, rest or no rest.

 
Peyton Marino said:
has there ever been a study done on the effect of short rest on a pitcher?  without looking at the stats i'd rather see Urias and Kershaw to Kershaw/Hill, rest or no rest.
Even if there were data on pitchers overall I'd say there's other variables at play here that make this case a little different.  Game 1 was the first time Kershaw has gone over 100 pitches since June, and he was clearly tiring at the end of his outing. I'd much rather see that guy on short rest than a fully rested Kershaw in Game 5. I assume everyone agrees with that, otherwise there wouldn't even be a reason to discuss it.

So the question then is whether the difference between short-rest Hill Thursday and Urias/bullpen today is bigger than the gap between short-rest Kershaw today and fully rested Kershaw on Thursday.  Since Hill is 36, hasn't gone over 100 pitches since early summer, and I'm guessing has never thrown two starts on short rest (Saturday was his first postseason start), I think that's the easy call.

There's also the peace of mind afforded the Nats if they know they'd be the favorite in a potential Game 5. If they lose today the vibe over the next two days is a lot different if Thursday is Scherzer vs. Hill on short rest compared to if it's Scherzer vs. full strength Kershaw Part II.

 
Even if there were data on pitchers overall I'd say there's other variables at play here that make this case a little different.  Game 1 was the first time Kershaw has gone over 100 pitches since June, and he was clearly tiring at the end of his outing. I'd much rather see that guy on short rest than a fully rested Kershaw in Game 5. I assume everyone agrees with that, otherwise there wouldn't even be a reason to discuss it.

So the question then is whether the difference between short-rest Hill Thursday and Urias/bullpen today is bigger than the gap between short-rest Kershaw today and fully rested Kershaw on Thursday.  Since Hill is 36, hasn't gone over 100 pitches since early summer, and I'm guessing has never thrown two starts on short rest (Saturday was his first postseason start), I think that's the easy call.

There's also the peace of mind afforded the Nats if they know they'd be the favorite in a potential Game 5. If they lose today the vibe over the next two days is a lot different if Thursday is Scherzer vs. Hill on short rest compared to if it's Scherzer vs. full strength Kershaw Part II.
all fair points, but I guess it depends on how much > you think Hill (on short rest) is vs Urias.  I start with the assumption that Hill is pretty amazing (a top 5 starter in baseball, but maybe I'm more bullish than most).  so, without running any numbers, I'll take two top 5 guys on short rest vs. a top 5 guy and an above average guy on normal rest.  people have noted that you've also got the option to use Hill out of the bullpen in game 5, which is nice, but you can also use Urias out of the bullpen if you don't start him in games 4 or 5.  it's close for me, but I'll take Kershaw/Hill both on short rest.  

 
the dodgers are pretty data driven, I think.  I very much doubt Dave Roberts is making this decision.  the front office will go with what the analytics say, so the decision itself should be interesting. 

 
all fair points, but I guess it depends on how much > you think Hill (on short rest) is vs Urias.  I start with the assumption that Hill is pretty amazing (a top 5 starter in baseball, but maybe I'm more bullish than most).  so, without running any numbers, I'll take two top 5 guys on short rest vs. a top 5 guy and an above average guy on normal rest.  people have noted that you've also got the option to use Hill out of the bullpen in game 5, which is nice, but you can also use Urias out of the bullpen if you don't start him in games 4 or 5.  it's close for me, but I'll take Kershaw/Hill both on short rest.  
Exactly right, it all depends what you think of Hill on short rest. I don't think nearly as highly of that as you do, but you've seen him a lot more than I have.

Of course I don't think it will matter that much in the decision I think Roberts will have to make his decision based on his clubhouse on also covering his own ### with the media if the Dodgers lose the series rather than strategy or the numbers. If he sits Kershaw and they lose today he's the goat and has to answer to the media and the players about why they went down without throwing their best punch; any other scenario and the focus shifts largely to the players. So I would be surprised if Kershaw's not the starter.

ETA:  Just saw your post about them being data-driven and the decision maybe not being in Roberts' hands, didn't know that.  Thanks for sharing it. Fascinating decision, I'm glad it's not my team making it. Of course the Nationals have the weight of a 19 year DC semifinal round drought, spread across four different sports, on their shoulders.  So everyone's got their crosses to bear this week.

 
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Late here but pitching should favor the Nats.  If the Dodgers win today, the Nats have Scherzer (and Roark if needed) for Game 5 and the Dodgers do not have Kershaw.

 
They had a shot today, as monster dogs.  Really had hoped they would have finished this in LA, but you have to like the match-up Thursday.  Doyers haven't had a whole lot of postseason success lately either, it's not like they are playing the Cardinals. 

 
This team is exactly the Caps of baseball
:thumbdown:

They're 0-2 in playoff series.  They've gone from being -170 underdogs in this series to being -150 favorites by playing solid baseball, including hitting .313 with RISP and having a bullpen ERA of 1.08. If Strasburg was healthy this series would likely be over by now.  Even if they lose tonight they are a LONG way from being the Caps of baseball.

 
TobiasFunke said:
:thumbdown:

They're 0-2 in playoff series.  They've gone from being -170 underdogs in this series to being -150 favorites by playing solid baseball, including hitting .313 with RISP and having a bullpen ERA of 1.08. If Strasburg was healthy this series would likely be over by now.  Even if they lose tonight they are a LONG way from being the Caps of baseball.
Dusty Baker's teams have lost eight straight playoff games in which his team would have advanced with a win, the longest streak in history (though not all with the Nats).

Bruce Boudreau is 1-7 all-time in Game 7s (though not all with the Caps).

I hope I'm wrong. But it's a gag we've heard before.

 
Dusty Baker's teams have lost eight straight playoff games in which his team would have advanced with a win, the longest streak in history (though not all with the Nats).

Bruce Boudreau is 1-7 all-time in Game 7s (though not all with the Caps).

I hope I'm wrong. But it's a gag we've heard before.
This team has played above its head to get to this point, they were decent-sized underdogs going into the series.  More so than any Caps playoff series loss I can remember.

 
On the bright side, I feel like the Nats will just be playing with house money in the postseason, which should be good for my stress levels.  It will feel a bit better going in not expecting anything, versus my past optimism getting dashed by Drew Storen.
Well, it still wasn't good for my stress levels, but last night did not feel as bad as previous exits because of all of the injuries.  And throwing Kershaw three times in a five game series is something I've got to tip my cap to the Dodgers to.

 
At least Strasburg will be ready for the next series.

Unless he has a hair follicle growing inward or has a hang nail or maybe just breathing in general.

 
Rizzo's MO is to come out of nowhere while the deals or signings that are the subject of lots of rumors don't happen. But this McCutchen stuff is just too perfect of a fit. We have the assets to deal and the need for a quality RH bat between Murphy and Harper.  We also need a CF for the short term. There's a chance to buy low (relatively speaking) after his down year this past season. He's signed for two more years, which matches the Nats' prime contention window perfectly.

Maybe someone outbids the Nats with a ridiculous prospect haul, but otherwise I have a feeling Rizzo might just get his man this time.

 
Rizzo's MO is to come out of nowhere while the deals or signings that are the subject of lots of rumors don't happen. But this McCutchen stuff is just too perfect of a fit. We have the assets to deal and the need for a quality RH bat between Murphy and Harper.  We also need a CF for the short term. There's a chance to buy low (relatively speaking) after his down year this past season. He's signed for two more years, which matches the Nats' prime contention window perfectly.

Maybe someone outbids the Nats with a ridiculous prospect haul, but otherwise I have a feeling Rizzo might just get his man this time.
I was reading that multiple MLB execs are stating that Cutch is not going to pull in any major type of haul.  I'm hoping the PIrates just keep him at least until the trade deadline.  As you indicate, his value cannot be any lower than it is right now.

 
The Pirates and Nationals have ramped up discussions about a trade that would send Andrew McCutchen to Washington, according to sources who have spoken with both teams. The Nationals, according to one exec, would like to make this deal today, because the ripple effect of trading for McCutchen would likely be a move to nontender shortstop Danny Espinosa before tomorrow's tender date. The Nationals have been looking for a center fielder. So if they can trade for McCutchen, he would play center, which would bounce Trea Turner to short and leave no spot for Espinosa. The Pirates are looking for controllable starting pitching. So names like Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez would fit that shopping list.
:excited:

ETA:  Zuckerman reporting that Robles is being discussed as part of the prospect package, which would take me from :excited: to :unsure:

 
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Robles plus controllable SP according to rotoworld. Guessing that's Ross or Lopez and not Gio. 

Would be nice to get mccutcheon and Chris sale too. 

 
The Pirates helped you guys by sending Melancon your way.  They'll be only too glad to gift-wrap McCutchen for whatever bat-boy and loose catcher's equipment you have around your clubhouse.  We're easy.  We have bean-counting management unashamed about shopping Cutch so aggressively.  Please don't fear that your key prospects will lost to Pgh.  It will be a second-tier return for the Buccos.

 
Mark Zuckerman ‏@MarkZuckerman  30m30 minutes ago

#Nats and #Pirates indeed talking McCutchen. Names I've heard involved are Robles and Lopez, but sense is Pirates would want third player.


I like Cutch, but, man, that seems like a lot.

 
The Pirates helped you guys by sending Melancon your way.  They'll be only too glad to gift-wrap McCutchen for whatever bat-boy and loose catcher's equipment you have around your clubhouse.  We're easy.  We have bean-counting management unashamed about shopping Cutch so aggressively.  Please don't fear that your key prospects will lost to Pgh.  It will be a second-tier return for the Buccos.
Unfortunately if history holds true, I have to agree with this        :sadbanana:

 
I don't hate the Norris trade.  The need was there and the price was right.  Norris is a left handed bat and should bounce back offensively a bit.  His defensive metrics behind the plate seem OK although his CS% isn't.

 
Espinosa was tendered, so I guess nothing imminent for Cutch since that was being tied together in the rumors.

Seemed to make sense to tender either way, as $5 million did not seem too high to pay for the depth that he could provide in case of injury, or just giving days off to some guys... but I guess it's not my money.

 
Espinosa was tendered, so I guess nothing imminent for Cutch since that was being tied together in the rumors.

Seemed to make sense to tender either way, as $5 million did not seem too high to pay for the depth that he could provide in case of injury, or just giving days off to some guys... but I guess it's not my money.
They seem pretty hell bent on finding a new CF and moving Turner to SS whether it's McCutcheon or someone else.  

 
I think Cutch's demise has been overstated at the plate, but he's borderline gross in CF now and trending worse.  He's a candidate for LF somewhere where he'd probably be a little above average.  But I think he bounces back at the plate this year. 

 
FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that there is a "legitimate chance" Chris Sale is traded to the Nationals for a package headed by Victor Robles and Lucas Giolito.   :shock:

 
I like that a lot more than the similar rumor for Cutch.  All in for Sale.
Yeah I agree, didn't want to trade Robles but for Sale it seems worth it.  He's got three years left on his contract that pays him $12, $12.5, and $15 mill the next three seasons.  That's a lot of pitcher for that money, so that cost was worked into the deal. 

 

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