***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (2 Viewers)

[valhallan]

I just can't imagine Zim in left. There's no chance he would have made that throw to Desmond to save the game in the 9th. Roll the dice with him at first, pinch LaRoche for Fister in the 7th/8th. We put too much pressure on our pitchers with no run support.

 

[Don Quixote]

James Wagner ‏@JamesWagnerWP 51s51 seconds ago
Nats NLDS Game 3 vs. Bumgarner: No Zimmerman. Span CF, Rendon 3B, Werth RF, LaRoche 1B, Desmond SS, Harper LF, Ramos C, Cabrera 2B, Fister P

 

[valhallan]

Sigh.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Sigh.

The only thing that really bothers me is LaRoche in the cleanup spot. He's awful against lefties. If you need his glove in the lineup with Fister on the mound, I understand, but move him down. Swap him with Harper, who has been solid against lefties this year. Or move Harper up to 3rd and Werth to cleanup and push LaRoche down to 7th or so. Just doesn't make sense.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I wonder how much Zimmerman can really run and field. They took him out immediately Saturday after his single.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I wonder how much Zimmerman can really run and field. They took him out immediately Saturday after his single.

Fair question- although IIRC when he singled Saturday he was hitting in the P spot and they needed speed on the basepaths. There wasn't really any reason to keep him in there except to conserve a mediocre bench bat, and they had plenty of those since a pitcher didn't hit until the 17th.

 

[valhallan]

Sigh.

The only thing that really bothers me is LaRoche in the cleanup spot. He's awful against lefties. If you need his glove in the lineup with Fister on the mound, I understand, but move him down. Swap him with Harper, who has been solid against lefties this year. Or move Harper up to 3rd and Werth to cleanup and push LaRoche down to 7th or so. Just doesn't make sense.

Hey, if it's broke, don't fix it.

 

[Don Quixote]

I wonder how much Zimmerman can really run and field. They took him out immediately Saturday after his single.

Fair question- although IIRC when he singled Saturday he was hitting in the P spot and they needed speed on the basepaths. There wasn't really any reason to keep him in there except to conserve a mediocre bench bat, and they had plenty of those since a pitcher didn't hit until the 17th.

It was P spot, but just after Cabrera was thrown out. They pinch ran him with Espinosa, who stayed in the game. I had thought it was for speed that backfired because they then had to have Espinosa bat a couple of times, as they could have kept Zim in and moved Rendon over. (ETA: But maybe health was a factor.)

 

[TobiasFunke]

Sigh.

The only thing that really bothers me is LaRoche in the cleanup spot. He's awful against lefties. If you need his glove in the lineup with Fister on the mound, I understand, but move him down. Swap him with Harper, who has been solid against lefties this year. Or move Harper up to 3rd and Werth to cleanup and push LaRoche down to 7th or so. Just doesn't make sense.

Hey, if it's broke, don't fix it.

I don't know if it's broke, it's worked all year. I hated it before though, too. I just don't get why he hasn't adjusted to LaRoche's inability to hit lefties. Having him at the cleanup gives Bumgarner a safety valve when he faces Rendon and Werth, the Nats' two best hitters by far with a lefty on the mound (assuming Zimm isn't 100%).

 

[Don Quixote]

RBIs!

Eno Sarris @enosarris · 12m12 minutes ago
So Matt Williams just quoted RBI as a stat he used to make a lineup position, which surprises me a bit.


Eno Sarris @enosarris · 14m14 minutes ago
Zimmerman is not on the lineup because they "have a lineup and the lefties have hit Bumgarner well, with hits and RBI," so huh.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Moved this from the NLDS thread since that series is long since over:

About 80% of the games. We performed like this over several stretches, so it was not shocking at all to see it again.

I just think 'sample size' is a convenient excuse being tossed around for guys that wilted under pressure for 4 straight games. No one would say a regular season series against the Phillies is comparable to the stress of playoff baseball. Guys like Vogelsong and Hudson tossed their sluggish regular seasons out the window and stepped up.

Werth had 206 plate appearances in 49 postseason games prior to this and only twice had back to back games without a hit. It took him until the 13th inning of game 2 to get a hit, then he was shut out the rest of the way.

I really worry we'll end up going down the Caps road with this team where we think we have the right guys and "it'll be different next year". 5 division titles in 7 seasons later, the same guys have wilted under the pressure of the playoffs year in and year out. That's more torturous than enjoyable, at least for this fan.

Sorry, but I think this is after-the-fact narrative nonsense, and I'm not the only one who thinks so.

As for this team- I saw zero evidence of anyone wilting under pressure- certainly not in four straight games, considering they won one of them and scored as many runs as the Giants over the four games. And the players? Werth put together great ABs most of the series- yeah he didn't get a hit until the 13th inning of Game 2, but part of that was because they were pitching around him- he drew a few walks and got pinched on a couple other tough 3-2 calls. LaRoche sucked, but he gets hot and cold all the time, this was nothing new. Werth has done this successfully before- what seems more likely, that he just caught some bad luck on balls in play in the postseason this year or that he felt more pressure in the NLDS than he did in the World Series with Philly? And why didn't the most of the pitching staff or defense "wilt under the pressure"? What about Rendon and Harper?

It's a small sample size, nothing more. Look at the guy you used as an example for "stepping up"- Tim Hudson. What happened to him yesterday? Got handed a four run lead in the first and gave it all back by the seventh. Just didn't feel like stepping up any more? Of course not. It's just variance/small sample sizes. It's the reason we're heading to a World Series with two sub 90 win teams. It's the reason the two best pitchers in the NL have looked awful in the postseason. You just have to accept it as part of baseball. Best way to beat it is to get back to the postseason and lot so there's more chances that the luck will go your way. So far so good- hopefully they'll keep doing it over the next 4-5 years.

 

[valhallan]

I still think the sample size talk is garbage. It's such an easy way to dismiss performances. Both teams deal with the same short window to perform. When do they become accountable?

 

[TobiasFunke]

I still think the sample size talk is garbage. It's such an easy way to dismiss performances. Both teams deal with the same short window to perform. When do they become accountable?

Sorry, I really don't know what this means. Accountable for what? Do you think they didn't try hard? That would be a really weird thing to do, not try hard in the playoffs after slogging through a 6 month regular season in which they accumulated 96 wins.

We'll have to agree to disagree on small sample size, I guess. I think most of the baseball world is on my side, though, including most likely Vegas and probably most Giants (and Royals) fans as well. I guarantee the 2014 Nats would be favored against either team in a series starting tomorrow. Upsets happen. That's what small sample size means. It victimized a lot of other teams this year, including the Angels, the Dodgers to some extent and both of the favored teams in the CS.

 

[valhallan]

I still think the sample size talk is garbage. It's such an easy way to dismiss performances. Both teams deal with the same short window to perform. When do they become accountable?

Sorry, I really don't know what this means. Accountable for what? Do you think they didn't try hard? That would be a really weird thing to do, not try hard in the playoffs after slogging through a 6 month regular season in which they accumulated 96 wins.

We'll have to agree to disagree on small sample size, I guess. I think most of the baseball world is on my side, though, including most likely Vegas and probably most Giants (and Royals) fans as well. I guarantee the 2014 Nats would be favored against either team in a series starting tomorrow. Upsets happen. That's what small sample size means. It victimized a lot of other teams this year, including the Angels, the Dodgers to some extent and both of the favored teams in the CS.

Your prior post basically reads as 'they are good enough, but they lost because they were unlucky.' So, baseball boils down to which team is least unlucky?

I mean accountable for performing and having professional at bats. Do we really need to start breaking down their at bats? How many times did Werth just stand there and watch strike one whiz past him? The Giants knew what to do to him and he had no answer, at bat after at bat after at bat. Why didn't Werth do his homework the way the Giants clearly did?

You don't have to talk about 'the whole baseball world' and statistical analysis, we're not presenting a white paper here. I'm just a fan that's tired of the rhetoric. It seems like baseball fans are way too comfortable saying hey it was just bad luck, so let's bring everyone back and do it again. I think it's perfectly reasonable to suggest guys like Werth and LaRoche just aren't playoff caliber #3 and #4 batters. That is possible, isn't it?

 

[TobiasFunke]

I still think the sample size talk is garbage. It's such an easy way to dismiss performances. Both teams deal with the same short window to perform. When do they become accountable?

Sorry, I really don't know what this means. Accountable for what? Do you think they didn't try hard? That would be a really weird thing to do, not try hard in the playoffs after slogging through a 6 month regular season in which they accumulated 96 wins.

We'll have to agree to disagree on small sample size, I guess. I think most of the baseball world is on my side, though, including most likely Vegas and probably most Giants (and Royals) fans as well. I guarantee the 2014 Nats would be favored against either team in a series starting tomorrow. Upsets happen. That's what small sample size means. It victimized a lot of other teams this year, including the Angels, the Dodgers to some extent and both of the favored teams in the CS.

Your prior post basically reads as 'they are good enough, but they lost because they were unlucky.' So, baseball boils down to which team is least unlucky?

I mean accountable for performing and having professional at bats. Do we really need to start breaking down their at bats? How many times did Werth just stand there and watch strike one whiz past him? The Giants knew what to do to him and he had no answer, at bat after at bat after at bat. Why didn't Werth do his homework the way the Giants clearly did?

You don't have to talk about 'the whole baseball world' and statistical analysis, we're not presenting a white paper here. I'm just a fan that's tired of the rhetoric. It seems like baseball fans are way too comfortable saying hey it was just bad luck, so let's bring everyone back and do it again. I think it's perfectly reasonable to suggest guys like Werth and LaRoche just aren't playoff caliber #3 and #4 batters. That is possible, isn't it?

Correc, at least in the postseason. Postseason baseball is basically just luck. Most baseball fans know and accept this, especially in the middle of a World Series between two teams that didn't crack 90 wins in the regular season, one of which was under .500 since May 1. That's the reason you'll almost never see a team that's more than a -200 favorite for a postseason series no matter how well a series shapes up in terms of home field and matchups and whatnot (the Nats were around -180 for the series once you remove the vig).

To answer your Werth questions- how many times did he just stand there and watch strike 1 whiz by him? For the last decade. That's how a 35 year old player ended up with the fifth-highest OBP in baseball this season, trailing only McCutchen, V. Martinez, Bautista and Stanton. It's not like the Giants are the only team to realize he rarely swings on the first pitch. It didn't help the other teams over the previous 7000 at-bats. In this small sample size he walked three times (twice in the opener), got pinched on a couple iffy strike 3 calls striking out 5 times in total, got a single hit and had some really bad luck on hard-hit balls. That's all it takes to have a bad four game stretch, even if you're a really good player.

I don't even know what a "playoff caliber #3 and #4 hitter means. The Royals' 3 hitter has a .339 OBP and a .412 slugging this season, their 4 hitter was .318/.398. Our guys were WAY better than that. Doesn't seem to be holding the Royals back so far.

 

[valhallan]

Most baseball fans know and accept this

Tired of this refrain. See ya next year.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Actually the standard for evaluation is about 1000 plate appearances. Judging a hitter's performance on 20 or 50 plate appearances is stupid, but playoff performances are especially emotional and impactful. I think guys like Span and Werth are generally overrated by fans, while guys like Harper are probably judged too harshly based on expectations even though the guy is just 22.

This team could look a lot different in 2016 with all the expiring contracts, but the farm system is strong and if the core players are Harper, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Strasburg...you are looking at a team that will be a factor for many years. I like Desmond but I think he's seeking a monster deal, whether he gets it in DC or not is TBD. You have Werth through 2017 but Harper needs to be in RF IMO, making that move next year is beneficial for all going forward.

Playoffs suck, this isn't the NBA where the best team always wins. In fact, the best team in a given season rarely wins these days. Nationals have a solid system, top to bottom, and they have a chance to be a postseason team for many years with their core. As disappointing as 2014 turned out, the franchise established itself as a power and there are a ton of bright spots to reflect on. As someone who has an interest in the success of the team, I think everything looks rosy going forward as long as Terrance isn't apart of their future.

 

[JZilla]

Terrance will be there longer than all those guys

 

[TobiasFunke]

Actually the standard for evaluation is about 1000 plate appearances. Judging a hitter's performance on 20 or 50 plate appearances is stupid, but playoff performances are especially emotional and impactful. I think guys like Span and Werth are generally overrated by fans, while guys like Harper are probably judged too harshly based on expectations even though the guy is just 22.

This team could look a lot different in 2016 with all the expiring contracts, but the farm system is strong and if the core players are Harper, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Strasburg...you are looking at a team that will be a factor for many years. I like Desmond but I think he's seeking a monster deal, whether he gets it in DC or not is TBD. You have Werth through 2017 but Harper needs to be in RF IMO, making that move next year is beneficial for all going forward.

Playoffs suck, this isn't the NBA where the best team always wins. In fact, the best team in a given season rarely wins these days. Nationals have a solid system, top to bottom, and they have a chance to be a postseason team for many years with their core. As disappointing as 2014 turned out, the franchise established itself as a power and there are a ton of bright spots to reflect on. As someone who has an interest in the success of the team, I think everything looks rosy going forward as long as Terrance isn't apart of their future.

Agree with pretty much all of this. One clarification- Strasburg is actually only under contract through 2016, which is weird to think about. Two more seasons and that's it. I suspect they'll lose him too, a return to SoCal just seems too obvious considering the money those teams can offer and the fact that he's never seemed comfortable in the org or embraced the town unlike Harper. Plus there's the fact that they'll need to set aside money for what I am guessing will be a massive extension offer to Harper in the next year or two.

My guess is that Desmond and Fister get extensions (Desmond because of the off the field stuff and the lack of middle infield prospects, Fister because he'll come cheaper due to his age and style) and Zimmermann and Strasburg will both be gone when their deals are up. Only thing that might change that is if Giolito gets hurt or regresses. I assume they're basically looking at him as their Zimmermann replacement for 2016 and Strasburg replacement for 2017 and on.

 

[DCThunder]

Actually the standard for evaluation is about 1000 plate appearances. Judging a hitter's performance on 20 or 50 plate appearances is stupid, but playoff performances are especially emotional and impactful. I think guys like Span and Werth are generally overrated by fans, while guys like Harper are probably judged too harshly based on expectations even though the guy is just 22.

This team could look a lot different in 2016 with all the expiring contracts, but the farm system is strong and if the core players are Harper, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Strasburg...you are looking at a team that will be a factor for many years. I like Desmond but I think he's seeking a monster deal, whether he gets it in DC or not is TBD. You have Werth through 2017 but Harper needs to be in RF IMO, making that move next year is beneficial for all going forward.

Playoffs suck, this isn't the NBA where the best team always wins. In fact, the best team in a given season rarely wins these days. Nationals have a solid system, top to bottom, and they have a chance to be a postseason team for many years with their core. As disappointing as 2014 turned out, the franchise established itself as a power and there are a ton of bright spots to reflect on. As someone who has an interest in the success of the team, I think everything looks rosy going forward as long as Terrance isn't apart of their future.

Agree with pretty much all of this. One clarification- Strasburg is actually only under contract through 2016, which is weird to think about. Two more seasons and that's it. I suspect they'll lose him too, a return to SoCal just seems too obvious considering the money those teams can offer and the fact that he's never seemed comfortable in the org or embraced the town unlike Harper. Plus there's the fact that they'll need to set aside money for what I am guessing will be a massive extension offer to Harper in the next year or two.

My guess is that Desmond and Fister get extensions (Desmond because of the off the field stuff and the lack of middle infield prospects, Fister because he'll come cheaper due to his age and style) and Zimmermann and Strasburg will both be gone when their deals are up. Only thing that might change that is if Giolito gets hurt or regresses. I assume they're basically looking at him as their Zimmermann replacement for 2016 and Strasburg replacement for 2017 and on.

This assumes that Scott Boras doesn't want him playing centerfield for the Yankees when his deal with the Nationals is up.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Actually the standard for evaluation is about 1000 plate appearances. Judging a hitter's performance on 20 or 50 plate appearances is stupid, but playoff performances are especially emotional and impactful. I think guys like Span and Werth are generally overrated by fans, while guys like Harper are probably judged too harshly based on expectations even though the guy is just 22.

This team could look a lot different in 2016 with all the expiring contracts, but the farm system is strong and if the core players are Harper, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Strasburg...you are looking at a team that will be a factor for many years. I like Desmond but I think he's seeking a monster deal, whether he gets it in DC or not is TBD. You have Werth through 2017 but Harper needs to be in RF IMO, making that move next year is beneficial for all going forward.

Playoffs suck, this isn't the NBA where the best team always wins. In fact, the best team in a given season rarely wins these days. Nationals have a solid system, top to bottom, and they have a chance to be a postseason team for many years with their core. As disappointing as 2014 turned out, the franchise established itself as a power and there are a ton of bright spots to reflect on. As someone who has an interest in the success of the team, I think everything looks rosy going forward as long as Terrance isn't apart of their future.

Agree with pretty much all of this. One clarification- Strasburg is actually only under contract through 2016, which is weird to think about. Two more seasons and that's it. I suspect they'll lose him too, a return to SoCal just seems too obvious considering the money those teams can offer and the fact that he's never seemed comfortable in the org or embraced the town unlike Harper. Plus there's the fact that they'll need to set aside money for what I am guessing will be a massive extension offer to Harper in the next year or two.

My guess is that Desmond and Fister get extensions (Desmond because of the off the field stuff and the lack of middle infield prospects, Fister because he'll come cheaper due to his age and style) and Zimmermann and Strasburg will both be gone when their deals are up. Only thing that might change that is if Giolito gets hurt or regresses. I assume they're basically looking at him as their Zimmermann replacement for 2016 and Strasburg replacement for 2017 and on.

This assumes that Scott Boras doesn't want him playing centerfield for the Yankees when his deal with the Nationals is up.

Nah, I accounted for that. That's why I said "offer" instead of "deal." They have to position themselves to make it even if it's not accepted.

 

[DCThunder]

Actually the standard for evaluation is about 1000 plate appearances. Judging a hitter's performance on 20 or 50 plate appearances is stupid, but playoff performances are especially emotional and impactful. I think guys like Span and Werth are generally overrated by fans, while guys like Harper are probably judged too harshly based on expectations even though the guy is just 22.

This team could look a lot different in 2016 with all the expiring contracts, but the farm system is strong and if the core players are Harper, Rendon, Zimmerman, and Strasburg...you are looking at a team that will be a factor for many years. I like Desmond but I think he's seeking a monster deal, whether he gets it in DC or not is TBD. You have Werth through 2017 but Harper needs to be in RF IMO, making that move next year is beneficial for all going forward.

Playoffs suck, this isn't the NBA where the best team always wins. In fact, the best team in a given season rarely wins these days. Nationals have a solid system, top to bottom, and they have a chance to be a postseason team for many years with their core. As disappointing as 2014 turned out, the franchise established itself as a power and there are a ton of bright spots to reflect on. As someone who has an interest in the success of the team, I think everything looks rosy going forward as long as Terrance isn't apart of their future.

Agree with pretty much all of this. One clarification- Strasburg is actually only under contract through 2016, which is weird to think about. Two more seasons and that's it. I suspect they'll lose him too, a return to SoCal just seems too obvious considering the money those teams can offer and the fact that he's never seemed comfortable in the org or embraced the town unlike Harper. Plus there's the fact that they'll need to set aside money for what I am guessing will be a massive extension offer to Harper in the next year or two.

My guess is that Desmond and Fister get extensions (Desmond because of the off the field stuff and the lack of middle infield prospects, Fister because he'll come cheaper due to his age and style) and Zimmermann and Strasburg will both be gone when their deals are up. Only thing that might change that is if Giolito gets hurt or regresses. I assume they're basically looking at him as their Zimmermann replacement for 2016 and Strasburg replacement for 2017 and on.

This assumes that Scott Boras doesn't want him playing centerfield for the Yankees when his deal with the Nationals is up.

Nah, I accounted for that. That's why I said "offer" instead of "deal." They have to position themselves to make it even if it's not accepted.

Gotcha...

 

[TobiasFunke]

Most baseball fans know and accept this

Tired of this refrain. See ya next year.

If anyone needs more evidence that playoff results- especially in a 5 game series- are mostly luck, consider the fact that the Nats' only postseason win in 2014 was over Madison Bumgarner. How ridiculous does that look at this juncture? "Shut down" by Peavy and Hudson at home, got a comfortable win over Bumgarner on the road.

 

[Eephus]

Most baseball fans know and accept this

Tired of this refrain. See ya next year.

If anyone needs more evidence that playoff results- especially in a 5 game series- are mostly luck, consider the fact that the Nats' only postseason win in 2014 was over Madison Bumgarner. How ridiculous does that look at this juncture? "Shut down" by Peavy and Hudson at home, got a comfortable win over Bumgarner on the road.

You lost me at comfortable. None of the games in the LDS were comfortable.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Most baseball fans know and accept this

Tired of this refrain. See ya next year.

If anyone needs more evidence that playoff results- especially in a 5 game series- are mostly luck, consider the fact that the Nats' only postseason win in 2014 was over Madison Bumgarner. How ridiculous does that look at this juncture? "Shut down" by Peavy and Hudson at home, got a comfortable win over Bumgarner on the road.

You lost me at comfortable. None of the games in the LDS were comfortable.

Good point. Should have said "relatively comfortable," I guess. It was the only game decided by more than one run.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

Most baseball fans know and accept this

Tired of this refrain. See ya next year.

If anyone needs more evidence that playoff results- especially in a 5 game series- are mostly luck, consider the fact that the Nats' only postseason win in 2014 was over Madison Bumgarner. How ridiculous does that look at this juncture? "Shut down" by Peavy and Hudson at home, got a comfortable win over Bumgarner on the road.

A fan reaching out and converting a flyout into a home run against your team is bad luck.

A rainout removing a favorable pitching matchup and a creating an unfavorable pitching matchup is bad luck.

A car crash killing one of your outfielders is bad luck.

Poor execution is not bad luck. Excellent execution is not good luck.

Events whose explanation are beyond your ability to grasp are not luck.

 

[Marvelous]

Long term for the Nats:

Harper - His oversized personality makes the Yankees look really desirable. I have a hard time seeing Harper re-signing with the Nationals

Strasburg - His quite personality actually makes a long term deal with the Nats more likely

Zimmermann - probably wants to be an ace on his own. He will always be in Strasburg's shadow here. And the contract offer from the Nats will probably reflect that

Desmond - will probably work out a deal with the Nats. But he wants big money. Power hitting short stops are rare.

Span - the Nats will pick up his option for next year, but I don't think he will be there long term. He had a career year this year, but for the most part, has been a below average lead off hitter.

Soriano - he won't be back next year

Storen - I am not sure the Nats are sold on him as the closer. Signing Soriano after the 2012 season was a huge vote of no confidence in Storen.

 

[Swing 51]

Wash Post:

On the first day of the offseason, the Nationals exercised Denard Span’s $9 million team option for the 2015 season, according to a person familiar with the situation, a no-brainer move that was expected following the center fielder’s excellent 2014 season. In his second season in Washington, Span was among the best leadoff hitters in baseball, combining stellar defense with strong hitting and helping the Nationals win a National League East title.

The Nationals formally announced Span’s option pick-up on Thursday afternoon, but also declined options for first baseman Adam LaRoche and reliever Rafael Soriano, essentially parting ways with both players, which also came as no surprise. LaRoche wanted to remain in Washington, but his position is the presumed future home for former third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. LaRoche’s mutual option was for $15 million but is now due a $2 million buyout. The Nationals held a $14-million team option for Soriano, who struggled in the second half of the season, with no buyout.

 

[JZilla]

God speed, Roachy. It is what it is. Guy was awesome here. I'll be pulling for him wherever he goes*, like my BFF Morse.

You can bank on Storen having first crack at that closer job IMO. He was still pretty green when they signed Soriano, times have changed.

*within reason

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Is this team really going to trade J. Zimmermann? And maybe Fister too?

I hope they find a way to pay ZImmermann, Strasburg and Desmond. Get R. Zimmerman's contract and Werth's off the books somehow if money is an issue.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Is this team really going to trade J. Zimmermann? And maybe Fister too?

I hope they find a way to pay ZImmermann, Strasburg and Desmond. Get R. Zimmerman's contract and Werth's off the books somehow if money is an issue.

Here's the pitchers on nine figure deals like the one Zimm will end up getting, along with their ERA and IP last season:

Kershaw: 1.77 in 198 innings

Sabathia: 5.28 in 46 innings

Verlander: 4,54 in 206 innings

Felix: 2.14 in 236 innings

Tanaka: 2.77 ERA in 136 innings (currently nursing torn elbow ligament)

Greinke: 2.71 ERA in 202 innings

Hamels: 2.46 ERA in 204 innings

Cain: 4.18 ERA in 90 innings

Lee: 3.65 ERA in 81 innings

Bailey: 3.71 ERA in 145 innings

Four success stories, six failures (Tanaka is borderline based on 2014, but given his current situation I thnk he's pretty easily a failure). Three of the success stories are guys who won Cy Young awards before they got their deals, two of whom are vastly better than Zimm in terms of numbers and stuff. That leaves six failures on the one side, and Greinke and Hamels on the other. Are you willing to roll the dice that a guy who's already had a TJ surgery will be a Hamels or Greinke over the vast majority of his deal and not the 2014 version of Sabathia, Verlander, Tanaka, Cain, Lee or Bailey? Not me. Not when we have to worry about giving Harper $300 million pretty soon and we keep getting screwed out of tens of millions in revenue every year by that dooshbag Angelos.

 

[Don Quixote]

Hard to really judge a trade without knowing who we'd get. 2015 is shaping up to be a great year, so I trust/hope Rizzo would not trade either too easily. But if we can get a long-term answer at 2B, and a SP who can bridge the gap until Cole/Giolito are ready, maybe it would make sense.

 

[Marvelous]

Hard to really judge a trade without knowing who we'd get. 2015 is shaping up to be a great year, so I trust/hope Rizzo would not trade either too easily. But if we can get a long-term answer at 2B, and a SP who can bridge the gap until Cole/Giolito are ready, maybe it would make sense.

I think the Nats will likely trade Jordan Zimmermann. They broke of talks last winter when they were not even close to an agreement. If Zimmermann leave via free agency next off season, the Nats will get a compensation pick at the end of the first round of the draft. Or they can trade him and get whatever someone is offering.

 

[Don Quixote]

Hard to really judge a trade without knowing who we'd get. 2015 is shaping up to be a great year, so I trust/hope Rizzo would not trade either too easily. But if we can get a long-term answer at 2B, and a SP who can bridge the gap until Cole/Giolito are ready, maybe it would make sense.

I think the Nats will likely trade Jordan Zimmermann. They broke of talks last winter when they were not even close to an agreement. If Zimmermann leave via free agency next off season, the Nats will get a compensation pick at the end of the first round of the draft. Or they can trade him and get whatever someone is offering.

Yeah, I understand wanting something more than a 1st round comp pick. But if the Nats hold onto him and he ends up pitching in Game 1 or 2 of the World Series (and maybe closes things out in Game 6 or 7), I'd take that with the comp pick.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Hard to really judge a trade without knowing who we'd get. 2015 is shaping up to be a great year, so I trust/hope Rizzo would not trade either too easily. But if we can get a long-term answer at 2B, and a SP who can bridge the gap until Cole/Giolito are ready, maybe it would make sense.

I think the Nats will likely trade Jordan Zimmermann. They broke of talks last winter when they were not even close to an agreement. If Zimmermann leave via free agency next off season, the Nats will get a compensation pick at the end of the first round of the draft. Or they can trade him and get whatever someone is offering.

Yeah, I understand wanting something more than a 1st round comp pick. But if the Nats hold onto him and he ends up pitching in Game 1 or 2 of the World Series (and maybe closes things out in Game 6 or 7), I'd take that with the comp pick.

That's what I'm thinking too. They're in a decent position here- if they don't get an offer they love they keep him in the rotation all year and still get a comp pick- which incidentally is how they ended up with him in the first place, he was a comp pick for Soriano's departure.

There are also now two organizations who clearly plan to contend next season that have impressive IF prospects and a need for elite starting pitching, though (Cubs and Sox post-signings). Increases the chance of a huge haul for Zimm.

 

[TobiasFunke]

So with the rumors of the Nats making a deal to "blow the roof off the place" and the other rumors about looking again at a Zimm extension, I'm wondering if maybe the Nats are seriously shopping Strasburg. Would make a lot of sense. He's only two years away from free agency and he's probably the one core guy from this recent winning run they could shed for prospects/financial flexibility without the fans losing their minds. Also he'd obviously give them a better return in a trade than they'd get for Zimm, Fister or Desmond.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Detwiler to Texas for 2 minor leaguers.

Sounds like Desmond to Seattle could happen soon too.

 

[Eephus]

So with the rumors of the Nats making a deal to "blow the roof off the place" and the other rumors about looking again at a Zimm extension, I'm wondering if maybe the Nats are seriously shopping Strasburg. Would make a lot of sense. He's only two years away from free agency and he's probably the one core guy from this recent winning run they could shed for prospects/financial flexibility without the fans losing their minds. Also he'd obviously give them a better return in a trade than they'd get for Zimm, Fister or Desmond.

Maybe shutting him down in 2012 was a shrewd move to improve his eventual trade value

 

[TobiasFunke]

So with the rumors of the Nats making a deal to "blow the roof off the place" and the other rumors about looking again at a Zimm extension, I'm wondering if maybe the Nats are seriously shopping Strasburg. Would make a lot of sense. He's only two years away from free agency and he's probably the one core guy from this recent winning run they could shed for prospects/financial flexibility without the fans losing their minds. Also he'd obviously give them a better return in a trade than they'd get for Zimm, Fister or Desmond.

Maybe shutting him down in 2012 was a shrewd move to improve his eventual trade value

We can check with the Braves and see what they got for Beachy and Medlen this offseason.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I know this isn't true, but at least once every offseason I feel like Mike Rizzo is playing chess and everyone else is playing checkers.

 

[Swing 51]

I know this isn't true, but at least once every offseason I feel like Mike Rizzo is playing chess and everyone else is playing checkers.

Desmond's replacement acquired in this trade?

 

[TobiasFunke]

I know this isn't true, but at least once every offseason I feel like Mike Rizzo is playing chess and everyone else is playing checkers.

Desmond's replacement acquired in this trade?

Yeah but it's more than that. It also gives them leverage in their negotiations to bring him back (which I think they should do for non-baseball reasons, what he does for fans and the community makes it more than worth risking overpaying in the last two years of a 6ish year deal). Plus they added another arm that could possible replace Zimmermann or Fister, giving them more leverage there too. And these guys are both already 21, they could well be in the bigs playing alongside several of the current regulars in two seasons. They're not long term projects. Also, once the Nats collect their 2016 draft comp picks for whoever leaves in free agency after next season they're gonna have an incredibly deep and strong farm system again. That gives them flexibility to reload even more quickly with major league talent if they choose to do so with something like the Gio Gonzalez trade.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Welp ...

Mark Zuckerman ‏@ZuckermanCSN 4m4 minutes ago

#Nats source confirms arthroscopic surgery for Jayson Werth tomorrow to repair AC joint. Out 2-3 months, which is very close to Opening Day.

I loved the trade and I still do, but I sure wish we had Souza on the roster right now.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Desmond almost traded for Yunel Escobar and Ben Zobrist with the Mets being the middle man getting Desmond. Glad that didn't happen.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Nats get Yunel Escobar from the A's. Not sure for who but I don't want this guy in the lineup. Just leave Espinosa in there.

 

[Don Quixote]

Seeing reports that Clippard is going to OAK.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Am I missing something with Escobar? A .250 hitter with little power/speed.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Am I missing something with Escobar? A .250 hitter with little power/speed.

You're missing the fact that he's a homophobe.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Am I missing something with Escobar? A .250 hitter with little power/speed.

Career .347 OBP, was at .324 last year. Getting an above-average on base rate from an solid to great defensive middle infielder (he was awesome until last season, guessing the Nats move him to 2B since he's aging and they have a need) is nothing to sneeze at. Like you said there's nothing earth-shattering about his game and his age concerns me, but it's a pretty good return for a reliever owed $9 million with only one season left before free agency.

From a fan perspective I hate dealing a beloved, important bullpen piece for a dooshbag who doesn't really bring anything exciting to the table, but from a baseball perspective it's probably a good move. He did all the right things after that "maricon" incident so I'll chalk it up to cultural differences and stupidity, should make it easier to root for him.

 

[tdog]

What will Desmond cost? Looking more and more like the Nats are not even going to be in the running for him. They offered 7 for 107 last year, which would have been 2 arbitration years and 5 FA years. Seemed low then before he another very good season. If they are going to try, you would think there would be an offer of around 20 mil per FA year, like 6 for 120 or so.

It seems like they are not even trying to get a deal done. I think his signing is key, more important than JZIMM or Fister. I would hope that long term they are planning on having 4 100 mil players at a time. I expected something like RZim, Desmond, Stras, Harper, Werth (with Werth dropping off around or after the the Stras and Harper deals). Even if Stras and Harper end up not being worth big deals, I would expect them to be able identify and carry other players at that level.

If they can't commit to at least 4 big deals at a time, I think the window will close quickly. I would hope they could commit to at least 160 mil in salary. Looks like they would prefer to be under 130.