Captain Hook
Footballguy
The deal for Escobar makes it seem more and more likely they would prefer to trade Desmond now while value is pretty high rather than overpay him in a new contract
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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JZilla
- Start date
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I dunno. They might trade him, but the return would have to be pretty substantial to pass up a year of peak Ian Desmond during your contending window and a first round pick in the 2016 draft. Nothing wrong with standing pat IMO. If he's great again this year it goes a long way towards winning another NL East crown and getting another shot at a World Series, if not he's still obviously valuable enough to get a QO and get you a pick, or you get him at a discount.
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Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
I don't follow too closely who wants how much money but if the Nats sign Scherzer that means Zimmermann is getting traded right? Would that free up money to give to Desmond?
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Seeing that they might trade Strasburg instead. Seems like that would make zero sense, unless get something extraordinary.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Surprised the Nats signed Scherzer, I guess this means Zimmerman is most assuredly gone.
Love it as a Max fan, not sure how much I like it as a Nats fan. Good right?
Love it as a Max fan, not sure how much I like it as a Nats fan. Good right?
The Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Well for both Nats/Red Sox fans, be prepared to read scores of articles proposing deals between the two teams. I think the Nats would prefer to deal Zimmerman but don't see that making much sense to deal to the Red Sox since they had their chances with Lester and I doubt Zimmerman is going to sign for anything considerably less, might even get more.
My guess is you'll see a lot of Swihart/Betts + type scenarios for Strasburg.
My guess is you'll see a lot of Swihart/Betts + type scenarios for Strasburg.
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Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Zimmerman is rumored to be heading for Milwaukee next offseason, he wants to go home.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Scherzer gets 210M for 7 years. Being paid $15M/yr for 14 years though.
I don't really understand this signing. I understand that the Nationals have been hesitant to sign Zimmermann long term since many long term contracts don't work out. But then they blow the bank on Scherzer. I am not entirely clear the Scherzer is that much better than Zimmermann going forward. Zimmerman is two years younger, which could be a big deal in the later years of Scherzer's contract. And Zimmermann would almost certainly be less expensive.
Rizzo has been awesome and gets the benefit of the doubt. But this move is a head scratcher to me.
Rizzo has been awesome and gets the benefit of the doubt. But this move is a head scratcher to me.
Rizzo likes having insurance policies. This really elevates the pitching staff this year and protects them if Zimmerman wants to walk. I hope they still push to sign Zimmerman, but this signing to me looks like they are far apart
After this signing, there is no chance that they re-sign Zimmermann. The signing makes a little more sense if they thought they could never re-sign Zimmermann.
I do think they will sign Strasburg to a long term deal at some point.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
BINGO on Zimmermann - both sides have said they don't think he will sign an extension
Strasburg? Not as sure, I would have thought so too BUT rumors today are that they would trade him for the right offer given that he has just two years left and Boras will for sure want him to hit free agency
Which is sad because I really like Zimmerman. Nice to see Rizzo making great moves though. Depending on how the season goes Zimmerman is trade bait if the wheels fall of the team early on.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
IMO that was all Boras. Boras wanted Max to get that 200 million no matter how many years it was spread out. Max will probably have 2 more season at his highest level..maybe 2 more where he is still good. At 35 he will still have 10 more years of 15 million a year coming. Boras did his job.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
It works for all parties. It's a really clever deal. I hated it when I first heard it but when I heard about the 15 years I liked it a lot more. It won't significantly hamstring the Nats at any point. People trying to come up with a present-day valuation number yesterday were using numbers like 5% or 7%, which makes sense from Scherzer's perspective but misses the point. The relevant % is the club's growth or the Lerner fortune's growth, both of which are probably gonna turn that $15 million into peanuts by the time Scherzer retires and the deal is at the halfway point. The team has already more than doubled in value since they bought it 9 years ago without winning a single playoff series. Imagine what happens if they somehow get themselves in a World Series in the next couple years, plus the MASN ruling goes their way, plus the ASG in 2018 can't hurt ...
As for Zimmermann, I think the lack of interest is mutual. The longstanding rumor was that he wanted to go back to the Midwest, looks like that may be the case, and there's several such teams with pitching needs. Something similar might be the case with Strasburg too. I hope they keep both until they're free agents unless they get a prospect offer they can't refuse, though- the first round pick comp plus the fact that they're in prime contending position now changes the cost/benefit a lot.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
If they trade Stasburg, that's a net loss IMO. And I'm the biggest Max fan there ever was.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Net loss for the rotation, I would agree. I like Stras ever so slightly more than Scherzer for the next two seaons. But if you can go from Strasburg to Scherzer + elite MLB ready middle infield prospect that's a win.
I hope they go balls out this season, keep everyone.
Making the Case for a Strasburg/Betts Trade by Dave Cameron
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/making-the-case-for-a-strasburgbetts-trade/
The Boston Red Sox have too many outfielders. This isn’t news; it’s been clear for a while now that their outfield is overcrowded, and while shipping Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit for Rick Porcello alleviated the problem to a degree, they still don’t have enough at-bats to go around for the guys they’re going to bring to spring training. It’s a nice problem to have, of course, but it’s still an issue that the team will have to work towards solving.
The Washington Nationals have too many starting pitchers. Well, kind of; you can never really have too many starting pitchers, since the attrition rate of guys who throw a baseball for a living is so high, but Max Scherzer‘s signing does push Tanner Roark out of the initial starting five. Having a solid group of useful starters behind your starting five is important, but having Roark as your sixth starter is something of an embarrassment of riches.
The Red Sox could use a frontline starting pitcher, as Rick Porcello isn’t exactly a classic #1 starter on a team that is hoping to make a deep playoff run. The Nationals could use a long-term solution at second base, and if that guy could also provide outfield depth for 2015, that would be even better. There might not be another situation in baseball where two teams theoretically match up for a deal better than the Red Sox and Nationals. So, Misters Cherington and Rizzo, let’s make the case for a Stephen Strasburg/Mookie Betts trade.
Why Boston Should Do It
The Red Sox currently project as baseball’s fourth best team, according to our calculations, and enter 2015 as the slight favorites to win the AL East. Despite their miserable 2014 performance, this is a good roster, and one that is built to contend this season. Boston didn’t spend $190 million on Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to move towards the middle of the pack; this team was constructed to get back to the postseason this year.
And yet, this rotation feels incomplete. I like a lot of the pieces they have, and I think both Porcello and Wade Miley were shrewd acquisitions, the kinds of solid rotation pieces that every good team needs. But these are the guys you want starting once in a playoff series, and they’re currently the team’s two best starters, with a couple of lottery tickets and a lower-upside fifth starter behind them. The Red Sox starting five feels like a fantastic middle-to-back-end of the rotation, and if Porcello-Miley-Masterson-Buchholz-Kelly were their #2-#6 starters, we’d be talking about this as a position of strength.
You don’t need an ace to win the World Series, but as Madison Bumgarner just displayed a few months ago, it sure helps. October baseball is different, and the more frequent off days allow teams to allocate a higher proportion of their innings to their best few pitchers. Having a dominant starter make two starts and a relief appearance in a seven game series gives you a distinct advantage, but the Red Sox currently lack the kind of arm that can be deployed in that way.
Stephen Strasburg could be that pitcher. Over the last three years, he’s #3 in baseball in xFIP-, behind only Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez. He’s an ace with upside, and at just 26, he wouldn’t have to be a short-term rental. While he’s only under control for two more seasons, the Red Sox have the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal, and getting him acclimated to Boston ahead of time may give them an advantage in the negotiations. Unlike most pitching acquisitions, Strasburg doesn’t have to be a short-term patch. This is a guy that can provide value both now and in the future.
I know they love Mookie Betts, and so do I, but as much as they value Betts’ overall skillset, the fact remains that he’s a worse fit in Boston than he is on just about any other team in baseball. Betts was considered a plus defensive second baseman in the minors, but the Red Sox have second base blocked off, forcing him to the outfield. But even center field isn’t clearly available, with Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr still around, and so if the Red Sox keep Betts for the long-term, he may end up playing primarily right field.
Defense is important everywhere, and as Shane Victorino has shown, this skillset can still result in an impact right fielder, but there are fewer opportunities to utilize a defensive asset in right field than there are at second base or in center field. Betts doesn’t lose all of his value in right field, but he would lose some of it, especially because Victorino is still around for another year.
Right now, we have Betts projected for 385 plate appearances between second base, center field, and right field, and being a legitimate contributor to the roster as a super utility guy: his +2.4 WAR projection for 2015 would make him the game’s best 10th man. But if you reallocate those 385 plate appearances to the rest of the guys on the roster, you don’t actually lose all that much short-term value.
If you split Betts’ 210 center field plate appearances evenly between Castillo and Bradley, their projected total WAR from the position would go from +3.8 to +3.3, a half win drop. They’d lose another quarter of of a win by shifting the non-Pedroia second base at-bats to Brock Holt and a quarter of a win by sliding Daniel Nava and Allen Craig into the right field at-bats that don’t go to Victorino. So, all told, losing Betts costs them roughly one win over his actual internal replacements in 2015.
Meanwhile, Strasburg is probably a three win upgrade over Joe Kelly, especially because Kelly allows the team to use Brandon Workman as a reliever, where he has shown legitimate potential. Because every team needs more than five starters, Kelly doesn’t actually lose that much value, and many of Strasburg’s additional innings would come from guys who should probably spend a good chunk of the year in the minors.
In 2015, swapping Betts for Strasburg is probably something close to a two win upgrade for the Red Sox. It doesn’t sound like a huge difference, but the Red Sox are at the point where wins are highly valuable, and Strasburg is the kind of asset that could be leveraged to an even larger degree in October. While the upgrade is probably smaller in 2016 — with Victorino set to be a free agent, Betts would be able to play most everyday — the Sox still have Allen Craig under contract and Bradley in the organization, so they wouldn’t be dropping down to zero value replacements.
And while they would be surrendering four years of Betts’ prime during years in which Strasburg could theoretically be pitching for someone else, some of that is offset by the ability to exclusively negotiate a long-term extension or get a draft pick as compensation if he leaves. There’s no question that you’d rather have four more years of Betts’ production than either of those options, but the lost value is deferred several years into the future, and the Red Sox should be willing to trade future wins for upgrades in the next two years. Strasburg would represent the kind of upgrade that would make giving up Betts’ future worthwhile.
Why Washington Should Do It
This is maybe the harder sell, because I just argued for the present value of wins taking precedence over longer-term upgrades for contenders. And clearly, the Nationals are also in win-now mode, especially after adding Scherzer to the mix. And with Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann set to become free agents at years end, trading Strasburg could mean that the team could enter 2016 with only Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark as stable rotation options. In a year, the Nationals could easily have a significant hole in their rotation if they traded Strasburg away.
But unlike with Boston, Betts fits their organizational weaknesses perfectly, and Strasburg represents more of a luxury than a need. With Jayson Werth likely to begin the season on the disabled list, there’s an everyday job waiting for Betts in Washington, and for the first few months of the season, he’d essentially be replacing some combination of Nate McLouth, Mike Carp and Tyler Moore, both of whom have some value as first baseman but little as outfielders. Even when Werth returns, Betts would have few problems playing everyday for the Nationals, as the Nationals outfield depth was diminished with the Steven Souza trade, and Yunel Escobar is not so valuable that he couldn’t be easily moved to a part-time role to free up time at Betts’ primary position.
In Washington, Betts probably projects as a two or three win upgrade over their internal positional options, especially if Werth’s shoulder proves to be a lingering issue. So while Strasburg is indeed an excellent starter, it’s not completely clear that the Nationals would actually be dramatically worse off in 2015 by making this trade. Strasburg is probably two to three wins better than Roark, and you’d have to also account for some of Roark’s current innings going to lesser options, but even on the high side, you’re looking at a three win drop-off in the rotation, and if you buy into Roark as a guy who can induce weaker-than-average contact, the gap is probably closer to two wins.
The 2015 Nationals wouldn’t be demonstrably worse with Betts than Strasburg, even though Strasburg projects to be the better player. Their high replacement level at starting pitcher and their very low replacement level behind their penciled-in starters in the OF and at 2B mean that the gap between the two players would be reduced in Washington, not emphasized as it would be in Boston. And Scherzer’s acquisition reduces Strasburg’s value in October as well, as there are only so many October innings to be allocated to starting pitchers. Using Scherzer as the Game #1/#5 starter sets him up to pitch in relief in Game 7, but likely excludes Strasburg from that potential third appearance; the first ace provides a lot more marginal value in the postseason than the second one.
So if the Nationals wouldn’t take a significant step back with Betts in lieu of Strasburg in 2015, the rest of the calculation is actually pretty easy. Next year, Betts moves into a full-time second base role, where he projects as roughly a three win everyday player making the league minimum, and the savings in 2016 salary could be applied directly an extension for Jordan Zimmermann. The assumption has been that Zimermann is not going to be re-signed because the team had to keep it’s future salary available to try to re-sign both Strasburg and Bryce Harper, but with Strasburg out of the picture, a long-term deal for Zimmermann becomes more palatable.
And even if Zimmermann isn’t re-signed, the difference in salary alone gives the team roughly $12 million of budget room that Strasburg would have eaten up, giving the Nationals a chance to offset the difference in expected value between the two by upgrading other parts of the roster. Even if you’re low on Betts, and see him as something more like an average big leaguer going forward, an average player plus $12 million in spending money isn’t a huge step back from a $12.5 million Strasburg.
And then there’s the 2017-2020 value, where the Nationals would have four prime years of an athletic second baseman, one at pre-arb and three at arbitration salaries. With ownership already pushing the costs of the present team into the future, stockpiling valuable assets who will make pennies on the dollar is the best way for the Nationals to build a sustained winner, and Betts is exactly the kind of player that the team will need in order to be able to try and keep Bryce Harper in D.C.
And while Betts’ carries the risks of a young player with just 200 big league plate appearances, the risk surrounding Strasburg may be just as high, especially with Tommy John surgery already on his resume. There’s no question that Betts could struggle to adjust to the big leagues, just as there’s no question that Strasburg’s elbow could go out again on any given pitch. The Nationals would be exchanging health risk for performance risk, but it’s not entirely clear that they’d actually be increasing the expected variance of their roster by making the move.
The TL;DR Summary
Swapping Betts for Strasburg would likely make the Red Sox two to three wins better in 2015, and probably a win or two better in 2016. The marginal value of these upgrades, along with the opportunity to try and sign Strasburg long-term before he hits free agency justify giving up the extra four years of control over Betts’ future, especially for a team in their market.
Swapping Strasburg for Betts might not make the Nationals much worse at all in 2015, while freeing up additional payroll space for 2016 to potentially retain Jordan Zimmermann. Strasburg’s postseason value is diminished by Scherzer’s addition, so he’s more of a luxury than a necessity for the team at this point. The Nationals will not be able to retain all of their young talent without supplementing the roster with productive low-cost players, and Betts is exactly the kind of player they should be targeting in a trade.
In talking with people in the game, neither side seems comfortable with the deal, which suggests that perhaps it’s a reasonably fair proposal, or at least in the ballpark of being reasonable on both sides. I know I’m higher on Betts than most, and if you place a very high value on frontline pitching, perhaps you think the Red Sox should add a sweetener to the deal. This isn’t so much about trying to say that Betts are Strasburg are equivalent in value as it is to say that the Red Sox and Nationals are currently setup to help each other about as well as two organizations have been in some time.
It’s almost certainly not going to happen, but as far as speculative trade suggestions go, this one seems to make as much sense on both sides as any I can remember.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/making-the-case-for-a-strasburgbetts-trade/
The Boston Red Sox have too many outfielders. This isn’t news; it’s been clear for a while now that their outfield is overcrowded, and while shipping Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit for Rick Porcello alleviated the problem to a degree, they still don’t have enough at-bats to go around for the guys they’re going to bring to spring training. It’s a nice problem to have, of course, but it’s still an issue that the team will have to work towards solving.
The Washington Nationals have too many starting pitchers. Well, kind of; you can never really have too many starting pitchers, since the attrition rate of guys who throw a baseball for a living is so high, but Max Scherzer‘s signing does push Tanner Roark out of the initial starting five. Having a solid group of useful starters behind your starting five is important, but having Roark as your sixth starter is something of an embarrassment of riches.
The Red Sox could use a frontline starting pitcher, as Rick Porcello isn’t exactly a classic #1 starter on a team that is hoping to make a deep playoff run. The Nationals could use a long-term solution at second base, and if that guy could also provide outfield depth for 2015, that would be even better. There might not be another situation in baseball where two teams theoretically match up for a deal better than the Red Sox and Nationals. So, Misters Cherington and Rizzo, let’s make the case for a Stephen Strasburg/Mookie Betts trade.
Why Boston Should Do It
The Red Sox currently project as baseball’s fourth best team, according to our calculations, and enter 2015 as the slight favorites to win the AL East. Despite their miserable 2014 performance, this is a good roster, and one that is built to contend this season. Boston didn’t spend $190 million on Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to move towards the middle of the pack; this team was constructed to get back to the postseason this year.
And yet, this rotation feels incomplete. I like a lot of the pieces they have, and I think both Porcello and Wade Miley were shrewd acquisitions, the kinds of solid rotation pieces that every good team needs. But these are the guys you want starting once in a playoff series, and they’re currently the team’s two best starters, with a couple of lottery tickets and a lower-upside fifth starter behind them. The Red Sox starting five feels like a fantastic middle-to-back-end of the rotation, and if Porcello-Miley-Masterson-Buchholz-Kelly were their #2-#6 starters, we’d be talking about this as a position of strength.
You don’t need an ace to win the World Series, but as Madison Bumgarner just displayed a few months ago, it sure helps. October baseball is different, and the more frequent off days allow teams to allocate a higher proportion of their innings to their best few pitchers. Having a dominant starter make two starts and a relief appearance in a seven game series gives you a distinct advantage, but the Red Sox currently lack the kind of arm that can be deployed in that way.
Stephen Strasburg could be that pitcher. Over the last three years, he’s #3 in baseball in xFIP-, behind only Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez. He’s an ace with upside, and at just 26, he wouldn’t have to be a short-term rental. While he’s only under control for two more seasons, the Red Sox have the financial flexibility to sign him to a long-term deal, and getting him acclimated to Boston ahead of time may give them an advantage in the negotiations. Unlike most pitching acquisitions, Strasburg doesn’t have to be a short-term patch. This is a guy that can provide value both now and in the future.
I know they love Mookie Betts, and so do I, but as much as they value Betts’ overall skillset, the fact remains that he’s a worse fit in Boston than he is on just about any other team in baseball. Betts was considered a plus defensive second baseman in the minors, but the Red Sox have second base blocked off, forcing him to the outfield. But even center field isn’t clearly available, with Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr still around, and so if the Red Sox keep Betts for the long-term, he may end up playing primarily right field.
Defense is important everywhere, and as Shane Victorino has shown, this skillset can still result in an impact right fielder, but there are fewer opportunities to utilize a defensive asset in right field than there are at second base or in center field. Betts doesn’t lose all of his value in right field, but he would lose some of it, especially because Victorino is still around for another year.
Right now, we have Betts projected for 385 plate appearances between second base, center field, and right field, and being a legitimate contributor to the roster as a super utility guy: his +2.4 WAR projection for 2015 would make him the game’s best 10th man. But if you reallocate those 385 plate appearances to the rest of the guys on the roster, you don’t actually lose all that much short-term value.
If you split Betts’ 210 center field plate appearances evenly between Castillo and Bradley, their projected total WAR from the position would go from +3.8 to +3.3, a half win drop. They’d lose another quarter of of a win by shifting the non-Pedroia second base at-bats to Brock Holt and a quarter of a win by sliding Daniel Nava and Allen Craig into the right field at-bats that don’t go to Victorino. So, all told, losing Betts costs them roughly one win over his actual internal replacements in 2015.
Meanwhile, Strasburg is probably a three win upgrade over Joe Kelly, especially because Kelly allows the team to use Brandon Workman as a reliever, where he has shown legitimate potential. Because every team needs more than five starters, Kelly doesn’t actually lose that much value, and many of Strasburg’s additional innings would come from guys who should probably spend a good chunk of the year in the minors.
In 2015, swapping Betts for Strasburg is probably something close to a two win upgrade for the Red Sox. It doesn’t sound like a huge difference, but the Red Sox are at the point where wins are highly valuable, and Strasburg is the kind of asset that could be leveraged to an even larger degree in October. While the upgrade is probably smaller in 2016 — with Victorino set to be a free agent, Betts would be able to play most everyday — the Sox still have Allen Craig under contract and Bradley in the organization, so they wouldn’t be dropping down to zero value replacements.
And while they would be surrendering four years of Betts’ prime during years in which Strasburg could theoretically be pitching for someone else, some of that is offset by the ability to exclusively negotiate a long-term extension or get a draft pick as compensation if he leaves. There’s no question that you’d rather have four more years of Betts’ production than either of those options, but the lost value is deferred several years into the future, and the Red Sox should be willing to trade future wins for upgrades in the next two years. Strasburg would represent the kind of upgrade that would make giving up Betts’ future worthwhile.
Why Washington Should Do It
This is maybe the harder sell, because I just argued for the present value of wins taking precedence over longer-term upgrades for contenders. And clearly, the Nationals are also in win-now mode, especially after adding Scherzer to the mix. And with Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann set to become free agents at years end, trading Strasburg could mean that the team could enter 2016 with only Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, and Tanner Roark as stable rotation options. In a year, the Nationals could easily have a significant hole in their rotation if they traded Strasburg away.
But unlike with Boston, Betts fits their organizational weaknesses perfectly, and Strasburg represents more of a luxury than a need. With Jayson Werth likely to begin the season on the disabled list, there’s an everyday job waiting for Betts in Washington, and for the first few months of the season, he’d essentially be replacing some combination of Nate McLouth, Mike Carp and Tyler Moore, both of whom have some value as first baseman but little as outfielders. Even when Werth returns, Betts would have few problems playing everyday for the Nationals, as the Nationals outfield depth was diminished with the Steven Souza trade, and Yunel Escobar is not so valuable that he couldn’t be easily moved to a part-time role to free up time at Betts’ primary position.
In Washington, Betts probably projects as a two or three win upgrade over their internal positional options, especially if Werth’s shoulder proves to be a lingering issue. So while Strasburg is indeed an excellent starter, it’s not completely clear that the Nationals would actually be dramatically worse off in 2015 by making this trade. Strasburg is probably two to three wins better than Roark, and you’d have to also account for some of Roark’s current innings going to lesser options, but even on the high side, you’re looking at a three win drop-off in the rotation, and if you buy into Roark as a guy who can induce weaker-than-average contact, the gap is probably closer to two wins.
The 2015 Nationals wouldn’t be demonstrably worse with Betts than Strasburg, even though Strasburg projects to be the better player. Their high replacement level at starting pitcher and their very low replacement level behind their penciled-in starters in the OF and at 2B mean that the gap between the two players would be reduced in Washington, not emphasized as it would be in Boston. And Scherzer’s acquisition reduces Strasburg’s value in October as well, as there are only so many October innings to be allocated to starting pitchers. Using Scherzer as the Game #1/#5 starter sets him up to pitch in relief in Game 7, but likely excludes Strasburg from that potential third appearance; the first ace provides a lot more marginal value in the postseason than the second one.
So if the Nationals wouldn’t take a significant step back with Betts in lieu of Strasburg in 2015, the rest of the calculation is actually pretty easy. Next year, Betts moves into a full-time second base role, where he projects as roughly a three win everyday player making the league minimum, and the savings in 2016 salary could be applied directly an extension for Jordan Zimmermann. The assumption has been that Zimermann is not going to be re-signed because the team had to keep it’s future salary available to try to re-sign both Strasburg and Bryce Harper, but with Strasburg out of the picture, a long-term deal for Zimmermann becomes more palatable.
And even if Zimmermann isn’t re-signed, the difference in salary alone gives the team roughly $12 million of budget room that Strasburg would have eaten up, giving the Nationals a chance to offset the difference in expected value between the two by upgrading other parts of the roster. Even if you’re low on Betts, and see him as something more like an average big leaguer going forward, an average player plus $12 million in spending money isn’t a huge step back from a $12.5 million Strasburg.
And then there’s the 2017-2020 value, where the Nationals would have four prime years of an athletic second baseman, one at pre-arb and three at arbitration salaries. With ownership already pushing the costs of the present team into the future, stockpiling valuable assets who will make pennies on the dollar is the best way for the Nationals to build a sustained winner, and Betts is exactly the kind of player that the team will need in order to be able to try and keep Bryce Harper in D.C.
And while Betts’ carries the risks of a young player with just 200 big league plate appearances, the risk surrounding Strasburg may be just as high, especially with Tommy John surgery already on his resume. There’s no question that Betts could struggle to adjust to the big leagues, just as there’s no question that Strasburg’s elbow could go out again on any given pitch. The Nationals would be exchanging health risk for performance risk, but it’s not entirely clear that they’d actually be increasing the expected variance of their roster by making the move.
The TL;DR Summary
Swapping Betts for Strasburg would likely make the Red Sox two to three wins better in 2015, and probably a win or two better in 2016. The marginal value of these upgrades, along with the opportunity to try and sign Strasburg long-term before he hits free agency justify giving up the extra four years of control over Betts’ future, especially for a team in their market.
Swapping Strasburg for Betts might not make the Nationals much worse at all in 2015, while freeing up additional payroll space for 2016 to potentially retain Jordan Zimmermann. Strasburg’s postseason value is diminished by Scherzer’s addition, so he’s more of a luxury than a necessity for the team at this point. The Nationals will not be able to retain all of their young talent without supplementing the roster with productive low-cost players, and Betts is exactly the kind of player they should be targeting in a trade.
In talking with people in the game, neither side seems comfortable with the deal, which suggests that perhaps it’s a reasonably fair proposal, or at least in the ballpark of being reasonable on both sides. I know I’m higher on Betts than most, and if you place a very high value on frontline pitching, perhaps you think the Red Sox should add a sweetener to the deal. This isn’t so much about trying to say that Betts are Strasburg are equivalent in value as it is to say that the Red Sox and Nationals are currently setup to help each other about as well as two organizations have been in some time.
It’s almost certainly not going to happen, but as far as speculative trade suggestions go, this one seems to make as much sense on both sides as any I can remember.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
The biggest problem with the Betts trade rumor is not that it doesn't make sense for both sides (it does), but that if the Nats are willing to deal two years of Stephen Strasburg they can probably do better.
I wouldn't be upset if something like that happened because I trust Rizzo to get the best value he can find, but I feel like two years of a #1 starter should fetch more than just a single elite prospect. I look at what the Rays got back for Shields (nobody thought Davis had much value at that point); Strasburg is significantly better than Shields and Myers' rep at the time was at least as good as Betts' is now, plus the Rays got other pieces in that one.
I wouldn't be upset if something like that happened because I trust Rizzo to get the best value he can find, but I feel like two years of a #1 starter should fetch more than just a single elite prospect. I look at what the Rays got back for Shields (nobody thought Davis had much value at that point); Strasburg is significantly better than Shields and Myers' rep at the time was at least as good as Betts' is now, plus the Rays got other pieces in that one.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 7m
7 minutes ago
Source: #Nationals sign free-agent reliever Casey Janssen, one year with mutual option, $5M guaranteed including option buyout.
...Seems a good fit.
7 minutes ago
Source: #Nationals sign free-agent reliever Casey Janssen, one year with mutual option, $5M guaranteed including option buyout.
...Seems a good fit.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I don't know about that. Janssen's strikeout rate went down last season and his ground ball rate went down as well.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Yeah, and it's not like Craig Kimbrel was out there on the free agent market waiting on someone to offer him a one year deal. I like the move because it addresses a need and it's low-risk. It should quickly become obvious if this year's version resembles 2011-2013 Casey Janssen or 2014 Casey Janssen. If it's the former the bullpen is in fantastic shape. If it's the latter you restrict him to lower leverage situations and let Barrett or Treinen or Thornton try their luck in the 8th. No real downside.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Hey Nats fans, congrats on taking the NLCS to 7 games this year. After Strasburg went down with Tommy John in July, they never gave up!
Swing 51
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I got a Nats bet in to win it all right before the Scherzer signing crashed their odds. We cannot accept anything but the ultimate glory!
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Can we have S. Souza back?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Fun Bryce Harper column from the Cespedes Family BBQ guys: Predicting the End of the Best Bryce Harper Fun Fact.
Said fun fact is of course the one about how, even thought he's now a guy with three years at the big league level behind him, he's still never faced a pitcher older than him in his professional career. They try to predict who will end it, but mostly it's just a reminder that he's still ridiculously young. Taijuan Walker is older than Bryce Harper.
Said fun fact is of course the one about how, even thought he's now a guy with three years at the big league level behind him, he's still never faced a pitcher older than him in his professional career. They try to predict who will end it, but mostly it's just a reminder that he's still ridiculously young. Taijuan Walker is older than Bryce Harper.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
<------president of the Michael A Taylor official fan club
Don Quixote
Footballguy
It's too bad we forfeited our first round pick and won't be able to pick Brady Aiken now.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I'll say it for the thousandth time, Harper should always be hitting third.
Don't care who is hurt, not hurt, hitting well, whatever. He should be hitting third.
FIrst game on Thursday, stay away rain!
Don't care who is hurt, not hurt, hitting well, whatever. He should be hitting third.
FIrst game on Thursday, stay away rain!
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Not a huge deal but they cost the Nats all three runs and it was opening day after all.
The pop up was reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeealy bad FWIW.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Current weather has it clear on Wednesday and then light showers on Thursday. But if you live here, you know not to look at weather more than 12 hours in advance.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Nats vs. Tigers in World series.
Seriously it is one freaking game and the sky is falling already listening to the radio today. Seriously when did Nationals fan turn into Redskins fans where they are either the greatest or worst team in sports history and it could change 3 times in one day.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Opening Day and the playoffs are when all the part-time fans and media who don't know much about the team/sport come out of the woodwork. The Loverro article saying Scherzer didn't pitch well was particularly silly. Those folks will get caught up in the NBA playoffs and the NFL Draft in a couple weeks and then when they come back we'll hopefully be in first place and everything will be back to normal.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Headed to park!
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Harvey was filthy fwiw
