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***OFFICIAL*** Washington Nationals ongoing thread (2 Viewers)

I'm the resident Dusty defender on this board so of course I think he'll do fine. He's not the most tactically astute field manager but he's generally done a good job with player management except for his last couple years with the Cubs. I think Harper will enjoy playing for Baker as will guys like Werth and Escobar. If there's one concern, it's Dusty's preference for experience. Danny Espinosa probably likes this hire more than Trea Turner. Espinosa just seems like a Dusty guy to me.

Washington has a relatively settled veteran lineup which plays to Dusty's strengths. I don't totally agree with the theory that he kills his starting pitchers. He likes settled rotations and bullpen roles but he really tends to overuse his relievers more. He will put relievers on the mound again and again. It's not unusual for Baker's relievers to log 75 appearances in a season. Guys like Drew Storen better eat their Wheaties this off-season.

I believe Williams' entire coaching staff is gone so Dusty has an opportunity to bring in his own guys. This will be telling, especially for the new pitching coach hire. The Nationals have a number of free agents and some flexibility to spend so they'll be one of the more interesting teams to watch this off-season. We'll see if their apparent unwillingness to open the wallet for Bud Black is part of a larger austerity program or just a question of priorities. My guess is the latter. There's enough quality in Washington to win and in spite of the Mets rise, the division is still theirs for the taking.

 
Baker told Votto to not worry about his OBP and focus more on being a "run producer." Votto's an incredibly smart ballplayer, certainly much more intelligent than Dusty from the articles I've read about Votto and his approach.

A lot of Harper's success this year has to be attributed to his newfound patience. He's worked counts pretty well all year, taken walks when they've been given to him, and worked favorable counts to where he could get a pitch to hit, and, well you know. Of all the Nats problems, you probably want Harper to pretty much keep doing exactly what he was doing in 2015.

What's the difference between Baker and Black in wins, 2? Maybe 3? Seems like that's worth shelling out a little bit of dough for, given that the "price" of a WAR is zipping towards $8mm on the player FA market.

 
Johnny B. likes his hitters to be aggressive but as long as Votto and Harper are in the batters box and Dusty is on the dugout step, the players control their destiny. The bigger issue with Baker's dislike of OBP is that he doesn't bat high OBP guys near the top of the order. Batting order decisions are overrated in assessments of managers because they're so obvious but the mathematical simulations I've seen show that minor adjustments in batting order don't have a significant impact on run production.

+/- 3 wins for a manager seems like a made up number but two can play the game. The Nationals won 83 games this year. Since I was wrong about everything this year, I'm going to start 2016 early and predict they'll win 90+ in 2016 and Dusty will be named NL MOTY.

 
Eephus said:
Batting order decisions are overrated in assessments of managers because they're so obvious but the mathematical simulations I've seen show that minor adjustments in batting order don't have a significant impact on run production.
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Eephus said:
+/- 3 wins for a manager seems like a made up number but two can play the game.
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In Tango/Lichtman's book, they found that an optimized lineup will gain an extra 10-15 runs over the course of the year, which comes out to about an extra 1-2 wins. If that's just lineup, it doesn't seem like a far leap to 3 if you include defensive alignments, SP usage, BP usage, etc. etc?

90 wins is not hard to fathom given the raw talent and war chest that team has. Maybe he's gotten more intelligent about baseball, but I'd be surprised if he "adds" to their win total, ultimately.

Clearly almost anyone with a pulse is going to be better than Williams in the clubhouse, and certainly the squishy, qualitative stuff matters. People who are happy at their jobs tend to perform their jobs better. I'm just flummoxed that there are apparently no other candidates who can do both.
 
I'd be more concerned about where Dusty will put Werth. Werth was pretty good in the leadoff spot for the Nats. He works the count and draws a lot of walks, setting the table for guys like Harper. I just don't see the guy who said this, "But the guy who walks and can't run, most of the time they're clogging up the bases for somebody who can run," ever doing something like that.

 
I don't think Dusty can screw this lineup up. Barring injury, they're pretty well constructed except for their extreme right handedness. Trea Turner better have a good spring though.

I don't think Escobar can sustain the high BABIP but if he can, he's their best number two hitter. And Dusty believes in that old school middle infielder, bat control crap. Werth seems like the veteran player that will thrive under Dusty's positive, low pressure mentality. Michael Taylor will be a bellwether for the Baker administration. Dusty got productive years out of similar players like Marvin Benard and Corey Patterson. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Dusty puts Taylor in the leadoff spot. I wouldn't but I'm not the manager. There's more to managing than putting the high OBP guys at the top of the order. Ned Yost batted Alcides Escobar as the leadoff man and won the World Series.

 
Eephus said:
I don't think Dusty can screw this lineup up. Barring injury, they're pretty well constructed except for their extreme right handedness. Trea Turner better have a good spring though.
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They are almost certainly going to bring in a LH bat, maybe a Werth platoon in LF.

Dusty will be better than Matt Williams for the team, but they really screwed up this transaction and the Lerners need some learnin'.

Looking forward to seeing Scherzer throw 350 innings in 2016. :thumbup:

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I'm not sure I get why this is a big story. When did Bud Black become Joe Maddon?
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Because the Nationals owners overruled their GM who is considered one of the best in the game, because they are cheapskates/morons.

The fans didn't want Baker, but it's less about that than it is the GM offering Black the job then the owners low-balling Black.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I'm not sure I get why this is a big story. When did Bud Black become Joe Maddon?
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Because the Nationals owners overruled their GM who is considered one of the best in the game, because they are cheapskates/morons.

The fans didn't want Baker, but it's less about that than it is the GM offering Black the job then the owners low-balling Black.
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An organization that used to look like it had its act together has appeared rather dysfunctional lately. The Black/Baker conundrum was leaked and allowed to linger throughout the World Series. The story about waiting until the series was over before announcing looks like a cover story in retrospect. Other managers were hired during the playoffs without the publicity that Nationals' search attracted.

Seattle and San Diego hired Servais and Green out of the witness protection program with little rumor mongering. It's not like the Mariners and the Padres are model organizations either. When AJ Preller (PRELLER!!111) runs a tighter ship than a perennial contender like Washington, that's not a positive sign.

And they should have fired Williams back in mid-August when I said they should.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
I'm not sure I get why this is a big story. When did Bud Black become Joe Maddon?
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Because the Nationals owners overruled their GM who is considered one of the best in the game, because they are cheapskates/morons.

The fans didn't want Baker, but it's less about that than it is the GM offering Black the job then the owners low-balling Black.
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This is exactly right.

I'm not too worried about next season. Even if Dusty Baker is still a close-minded old man when it comes to lineup construction and bunting and whatnot, the damage should be minimal. IIRC the biggest problem with his approach in Cincy was what he did with the #2 spot, often batting weak-hitting contact guys there, but Rendon and Escobar if he's still around are both decent options there that satisfy both the old-school types and the new school people who understand the value of the 2 spot. He's already shown some flexibility on SP usage, so I'm not too worried about that and maybe that's evidence he'll come around there too. And players love him, which obviously is a 180 from the last guy.

The far bigger problem is what it says about how the organization does business. It's stupid to lose out on your top choice because you offer him a deal that's comically below market value. It was stupid to have a massive opening day payroll and then not give your GM the flexibility to make needed trade deadline moves because you consider that payroll a hard cap on the season's spending (they got Papelbon bc the Phils agreed to pay his 2015 salary; imagine how different the season might have gone if they'd spent for Chapman or Kimbrel instead, someone whose role even Storen couldn't question). It's stupid to undercut your highly respected GM on managerial hires, even if he screwed up the last one.

This stuff and all the other stuff in the Svrluga and Kilgore articles all make the Lerners look like the kind of people you don't want owning your favorite team. And this is the first time I've thought that since they bought the team from MLB in 2006.

 
Jesus ####### Christ:

James Wagner ‏@JamesWagnerWP 6m6 minutes ago

NY Supreme Court Judge Lawrence Marks issued MASN case ruling today. Ruled in favor of MASN/O's & ordered MLB panel's award to Nats vacated.
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What a brutal week. Just disastrous to the organization's long-term prospect. The Nats will remain not just the only organization in the four major American pro sports that doesn't control its own TV rights, but now they won't get within a thousand miles of market value for them either. We can pretty much say goodbye to Strasburg after this season and Harper after 2018.

#### Angelos, #### Selig and #### baseball. I hope the Lerners go nuclear on them. Go after the antitrust exemption.

ETA: read a little more about this and I'm slightly less pissed about it. The court found that there was "evident partiality" in the arbitration and thus remanded it, so the Nats could still recover fair market if they go through the process again with the flaws fixed. But it will take a while, the Nats' spending will be hamstrung while it plays out, and of course none of it changes the fact that the whole thing is an incredibly bad an unfair deal to begin with.

 
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TobiasFunke said:
Ramblin Wreck said:
Mike Maddox likely to be the pitching coach.
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Hey, something that's not disheartening and awful!

Seriously, everything I know about him (which is not much) makes him sound like a good addition.
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Interesting hire given the story about the penurious offer to Bud Black. Maddux is very experienced and has an excellent reputation as one of the best pitching coaches in the game. I doubt he was the cheapest pitching guru available on the market.

Maddux has been quoted as saying he wants to manage. It hard to believe but Dusty is only a couple months younger than Terry Collins. Maybe Maddux thinks he'd have a more direct path to the position when Baker retires.

 
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JZilla said:
"Likely" assumes he's willing to be paid in 25,000 Jayson Werth O-face bobbleheads
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Remember two months ago when we thought that was gonna be the most embarrassing thing the Nats did this fall?

Anyway, sounds like it's a done deal. Hired before Dusty, which is weird, and also the highest-paid pitching coach in the game, which is really weird considering how the Bud Black thing fell apart. Uncle Teddy doesn't do media, but I assume at some point soon Mark Lerner will give an interview addressing this whole thing as well as the MASN litigation. Should be interesting.

 
Interesting Boswell column in today's Wash Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2015/11/04/bryce-harper-has-reached-out-to-jonathan-papelbon-plus-dusty-bakers-experience-in-such-matters/

When Dusty Baker is introduced as the new manager of the Washington Nationals on Thursday, he may have one fewer problem to worry about than most assume. Since the end of the season, Bryce Harper has reached out to Jonathan Papelbon to make sure their relationship as teammates is functional next season.

“Papelbon and Harper are fine together,” one person inside the Nationals said, referring to Harper’s phone call. “Harp just wants to win. All he cares about is that we have a 45-save relief pitcher who’s going to help us.”

Only time will tell to what degree Harper’s off-season olive branch improves the relationship between the two after their dugout fight in September, when Papelbon cursed Harper as he returned to the dugout. After a much-provoked Harper responded “Let’s go,” Papelbon jumped at the slugger and ended up with his hand around Harper’s throat.

As the aggrieved party in the fight between the two, Harper’s no-hard-feelings stance could be seen as a sign of emerging leadership skills from a 23-year-old. Of course, if they’re trying to suffocate each other with saw dust in a sliding pit during spring training, then maybe not.

Or it could be part eye-wash to facilitate a Papelbon trade. However, on a team that now has bristly Mike Rizzo as GM and Baker as manager, the Nats’ operating philosophy likely will be: Work-it-out-or-punch-it-out, but produce on the field.

Ironically, in Baker, the Nats hired a manager who in San Francisco successfully handled one of MLB’s legendarily bad relationships between two arrogant superstars: Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds. Of the pair it was said that “they’ve turned their lives around. They used to be abrasive and obnoxious. Now they’re obnoxious and abrasive.” And Baker had ’em both for six years together.

“Dusty was the manager when they had a fight in the Giants’ dugout,” Nats General Manager Mike Rizzo said this week.

Actually, Baker was in the middle of the screaming and shoving, breaking it up. Baker pulled away Kent and was overheard yelling in Kent’s face, “Don’t you ever talk that way to me.” The Giants trainer dragged Bonds away from the fracas.

Under Baker, a span during which they often batted in tandem, Kent won a Most Valuable Player award and drove in 115 runs a year while Bonds, in 10 years under Baker, won three MVPs and set the single-season homer record of 73.

What if Harper and Papelbon keep fussing or, perhaps, even lay hands on one another again? How might Baker respond? One possibility is that he’ll barely care.

“Add this [fight] to the half-dozen times we’ve done it before,” said Kent after their dugout dispute in June of ’02 — a time when they’d been back-to-back MVPs.

Ten minutes after their caught-on-camera F-bomb explosion, Bonds hit a three-run homer and Kent gave him a high-five at home plate — fitting, perhaps, because Baker and L.A. teammate Glenn Burke are credited with inventing the high-five. :shock:

“It ain’t a problem,” Baker said, after the umpteenth Bonds-Kent ruckus. “I went through the same thing in L.A. with a couple of guys. Now we see each other, and we’re partners. Usually this happens on good teams.

“Bad teams always get along.”

In a related note, Nats people also say the team’s current plan is to have both Papelbon and Drew Storen in the end back of their bullpen again next year with the expectation that they will work out a way to “play nice together.”

If they don’t, the old-school Baker, who’s not averse to running a ballclub that has an occasional brouhaha with opposing teams, too, can always hand out the boxing gloves in the bullpen and separate ‘em in the clinches.
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Well I never liked Dusty, and I think personality problems aside there are some significant areas of need in the lineup and the bullpen. A couple key guys who are over the hill. The MASN/Angelos BS equates to a competitive disadvantage that doesn't bode well for future sustained studliness in a division with "rich" teams. But I'm going to be optimistic and enjoy the offseason!

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Gonna be stuck with Papelbon and Storen right?
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I generally think it's a bad idea to pay a large price for bullpen help either in terms of money/years or prospects, so I'm OK with them not acting on the big names who've been signed and traded. But they better do something. Trade for one of the TB guys or Giles, bring Stammen back into the fold, whatever. Gotta make a move of some kind.

 
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Things sure do look a lot better this morning. Nice low key pickup in Shawn Kelley, who can basically be a healthy and slightly better version of Craig Stammen, and it sure looks like we dodged a bullet literally and figuratively with Chapman.

 
So, today we learned that Kelley is apparently not a done deal, and Dusty called Chapman a heck of a guy and said we need more African-American and Latino players. :unsure:

 
Don Quixote said:
So, today we learned that Kelley is apparently not a done deal, and Dusty called Chapman a heck of a guy and said we need more African-American and Latino players. :unsure:
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My reassured feeling about the Nats lasted less than 24 hours.

Best case scenario on Zobrist though- don't want him at anywhere near that price/length but also happy he won't be on the Mets next season.

 
Jim Bowden ESPN Senior Writer
The trade of Yunel Escobar to Angels for Trevor Gott and minor leaguer opens up door for Anthony Rendon to return to his best position of third base. Nats also doing great Job of building bullpen depth which could lead to a Drew Storen deal to Dodgers or Cubs.
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Ramblin Wreck said:
Nats mystery team for heyward. Don't want him for 10 years 200 million. Who sits if nats sign him?
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I would guess they'd play him in CF (not the best fit for him, but he could play it). I don't think they'd bench Werth to start Taylor, but I guess you could do so fairly frequently.

 
Don Quixote said:
Ramblin Wreck said:
Nats mystery team for heyward. Don't want him for 10 years 200 million. Who sits if nats sign him?
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I would guess they'd play him in CF (not the best fit for him, but he could play it). I don't think they'd bench Werth to start Taylor, but I guess you could do so fairly frequently.
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I think that's right, although Harper could play CF as well, he says he likes it and the athletic ability is obviously there.

It would be a great pickup in the short term. Werth would still start, but Taylor could be a late inning defensive replacement and would give them depth for the inevitable OF injury as well. MASN and the beat writers loved to tell us the Nats' record over the last three years with Span in the lineup; Heyward's basically Span with a better arm and 15ish HRs a year.

Don't know whether 10 years at 200ish million makes sense unless they already know they have no chance of extending or retaining Harper, though. Or if the Lerners finally realized that they're worth six billion dollars so who gives a #### about spending an extra hundred million a year trying to win a World Series.

 
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TobiasFunke said:
Don Quixote said:
Ramblin Wreck said:
Nats mystery team for heyward. Don't want him for 10 years 200 million. Who sits if nats sign him?
Click to expand...
I would guess they'd play him in CF (not the best fit for him, but he could play it). I don't think they'd bench Werth to start Taylor, but I guess you could do so fairly frequently.
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I think that's right, although Harper could play CF as well, he says he likes it and the athletic ability is obviously there.

It would be a great pickup in the short term. Werth would still start, but Taylor could be a late inning defensive replacement and would give them depth for the inevitable OF injury as well. MASN and the beat writers loved to tell us the Nats' record over the last three years with Span in the lineup; Heyward's basically Span with a better arm and 15ish HRs a year.

Don't know whether 10 years at 200ish million makes sense unless they already know they have no chance of extending or retaining Harper, though. Or if the Lerners finally realized that they're worth six billion dollars so who gives a #### about spending an extra hundred million a year trying to win a World Series.
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Yeah, I think the only way they do it is if they don't think they can keep Harper around. Probably little chance of that happening anyway though, especially since the Yankees are going to be freeing up a lot of money around the time Harper hits the market.

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Don Quixote said:
Looks like Phillips is coming... https://mobile.twitter.com/DatDudeBP/status/677671913083260928
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Curious what we gave up. Read yesterday the Reds got ripped off on Frazier so hopefully we didn't overpay for Phillips. Doesn't help the Righty/Lefty problem but solid player to get so don't have to rely on Turner for 162 games.
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Phillips wasn't as good as fantasy players thought he was when he was putting up 20/20 seasons but he's not as bad now as the conventional wisdom would have. He seems like a Dusty kind of guy and keeps Espinosa in the UT role where he's pretty useful.

He has 2/$27M left on his contact. I assume the Reds will be paying a fair chunk of that.

 
Eephus said:
Ramblin Wreck said:
Don Quixote said:
Looks like Phillips is coming... https://mobile.twitter.com/DatDudeBP/status/677671913083260928
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Curious what we gave up. Read yesterday the Reds got ripped off on Frazier so hopefully we didn't overpay for Phillips. Doesn't help the Righty/Lefty problem but solid player to get so don't have to rely on Turner for 162 games.
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Phillips wasn't as good as fantasy players thought he was when he was putting up 20/20 seasons but he's not as bad now as the conventional wisdom would have. He seems like a Dusty kind of guy and keeps Espinosa in the UT role where he's pretty useful.

He has 2/$27M left on his contact. I assume the Reds will be paying a fair chunk of that.
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Yup. If the Reds are paying enough that the Nats are still free to go out and get the LH OF they need it's hard to be too upset. I'm a little worried Dusty will bat him leadoff, but that's a minor quibble.

I don't think he adds much, but he's certainly no worse than Espinosa.

 
Yeah, definitely a matter of what they are giving up and how much they are paying.

Kind of interesting/odd that the hold up seems to be Phillips waiving his no trade, despite him essentially announcing the trade last night.

 
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