*** Official Week 10 Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)

[kroyrunner89]

Sunday Games:

Houston -1 vs. Baltimore 42

Jacksonville -6.5 @ Detroit 43.5

Tennessee -3 @ Chicago 38

New England -3.5 vs. Buffalo 41

Atlanta -1 vs. New Orleans 50

NY Jets -8.5 vs. St. Louis 44

Miami -8 vs. Seattle 43

Minnesota -2.5 vs. Green Bay 44.5

Carolina -9.5 @ Oakland 37.5

Pittsburgh -3 vs. Indianapolis 40

San Diego -14.5 vs. Kansas City 47

Philadelphia -3 vs. NY Giants 43

Monday Night Football:

Arizona -9 vs. San Francisco 46

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Thursday Night Football:Cleveland -3 vs. Denver 46Sunday Games:Houston -1.5 vs. Baltimore 41.5Jacksonville -6.5 @ Detroit 44.5Tennessee -3 @ Chicago 38.5New England -4 vs. Buffalo 41Atlanta -1 vs. New Orleans 50NY Jets -8.5 vs. St. Louis 44.5Miami -9 vs. Seattle 43.5Minnesota -2 vs. Green Bay 45.5Carolina -9.5 @ Oakland 37.5Indy @ Pitt NL (will update later)San Diego -15.5 vs. Kansas City 47.5Philadelphia -3 vs. NY Giants 43Monday Night Football:Arizona -9.5 vs. San Francisco 45.5

Haven't done my research yet, didn't get a chance early in the week like I typically do. But I can already see that I'll likely be on Baltimore and Tennessee as I have almost every week. I think that's a combined 15-3 this year and I see no reason for it to change now. I think the wrong team is favored in the Balt/Houston game, and I think the Chicago line is about right if Orton were playing - but he's not, Rex is.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Agree with the Tenn sentiment- I think Grossman will struggle against that great D. I also think KC is playing at least respectable enough to not be 15 point underdogs. San Diego is not that dominant. I'll also take the Giants, who shouldn't be an underdog to anyone at this point.

 

[The_Man]

Baltimore, Tenn, and Buffalo started off this season like ATM machines. The ATM in Buffalo is now closed, but I'll keep on rolling with Baltimore and Tennessee (even if the Titans did let me down last week).

Baltimore is the play of the week

 

[kroyrunner89]

if grossman does play, i'm definitely putting my money on tennessee. i watched his second half against the lions last week, he did not look comfortable on one throw he made. plus, you can be assured tennessee will shut forte down, forcing grossman to carry the bears. i just don't see it happening.

 

[modogg]

anybody have an opinion on the Thursday night game? Not very attractive, but i think Denver could be a good play if Shaun Rogers is out. Big hole in the Cleveland D-Line and i am not sure that Cle offense will rally around Quinn just yet. sucks that Denver is such a terrible defense, because if they had any kind of rush they could really pressure Quinn. I think Denver may be an alright play, any thoughts?

 

[kroyrunner89]

anybody have an opinion on the Thursday night game? Not very attractive, but i think Denver could be a good play if Shaun Rogers is out. Big hole in the Cleveland D-Line and i am not sure that Cle offense will rally around Quinn just yet. sucks that Denver is such a terrible defense, because if they had any kind of rush they could really pressure Quinn. I think Denver may be an alright play, any thoughts?

my systems are showing slight value for denver +3 and basically no value for the over or under. i think the best option to go with here is to tease the picks to denver +9, over 40, but that's just me.

 

[Weiner Dog]

JAX (-7) at DET?

What am I missing? Culpepper is starting with...what...3-4 days of practice?!?! The Lions are 0-8!?!? I know JAX is not exactly TEN at the moment, but I cannot believe the line.

 

[pacman_fl]

JAX (-7) at DET? What am I missing? Culpepper is starting with...what...3-4 days of practice?!?! The Lions are 0-8!?!? I know JAX is not exactly TEN at the moment, but I cannot believe the line.

Without taking the time to look it up, I am pretty sure that the underdog has covered in every Jax game this year. Also, despite Det being 0-8 they have played competitively the last few weeks and have a couple of covers under their belt. I think one of the keys to playing this is to look at the money coming in on the game. I believe the game opened at 7 and my guess is that the public money is significantly favorable on Jax (just a guess) - if so, then I would be wary since the line hasn't moved. I am trying to make myself avoid this game as Jax has been in a favorable tease play the last 2 weeks and has not covered the tease number (I am SURE about not covering the -2.5 last week). I am not advocating a play either way, just explaining why you may want to look twice at this game.

 

[JGalligan]

Calvin Johnson = Daunte Culpepper's new Randy Moss

 

[tombonneau]

JAX (-7) at DET? What am I missing? Culpepper is starting with...what...3-4 days of practice?!?! The Lions are 0-8!?!? I know JAX is not exactly TEN at the moment, but I cannot believe the line.

Without taking the time to look it up, I am pretty sure that the underdog has covered in every Jax game this year. Also, despite Det being 0-8 they have played competitively the last few weeks and have a couple of covers under their belt. I think one of the keys to playing this is to look at the money coming in on the game. I believe the game opened at 7 and my guess is that the public money is significantly favorable on Jax (just a guess) - if so, then I would be wary since the line hasn't moved. I am trying to make myself avoid this game as Jax has been in a favorable tease play the last 2 weeks and has not covered the tease number (I am SURE about not covering the -2.5 last week). I am not advocating a play either way, just explaining why you may want to look twice at this game.

Correct. Read a stat the other week that every Jax game has been decided by fewer than 7 points. I look for that trend to continue @DET. IMO, Vegas is setting Jax lines higher than they should as they are still living off 2007 rep with public.

 

[The_Man]

Baltimore, Tenn, and Buffalo started off this season like ATM machines. The ATM in Buffalo is now closed, but I'll keep on rolling with Baltimore and Tennessee (even if the Titans did let me down last week).Baltimore is the play of the week

Baltimore has gone from a dog (opening at +2.5 and quickly dropping to +1.5) to a 1-point favorite.Has anyone ever seen a line move 3 points through 0 like that? Looks like the lines might finally be catching up to the Ravens.Also, I like the Browns a lot tonight, for both the first quarter (-0.5) and the game (-3). Road teams struggle like crazy in these Thursday night games. It's just too hard to play Sunday, go right into practicing Monday and Tuesday, and then travel Wednesday. There simply isn't enough time to get ready.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Baltimore, Tenn, and Buffalo started off this season like ATM machines. The ATM in Buffalo is now closed, but I'll keep on rolling with Baltimore and Tennessee (even if the Titans did let me down last week).Baltimore is the play of the week

Also, I like the Browns a lot tonight, for both the first quarter (-0.5) and the game (-3). Road teams struggle like crazy in these Thursday night games. It's just too hard to play Sunday, go right into practicing Monday and Tuesday, and then travel Wednesday. There simply isn't enough time to get ready.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Jax is now only +6.5 favorites. Man, I'm drooling. Rotoworld had a witty response on Culpepper for the upcoming game...

The Lions are expected to update the condition of Dan Orlovsky's thumb by Friday afternoon. A break would leave him out for the season while a sprain could sideline him for a month. Coach Rod Marinelli hasn't ruled out turning to Stanton, but signs are pointing towards Culpepper starting Sunday with a Tecmo Super Bowl-sized playbook.

 

[Teezee]

Wow, I wasn't expecting Philly to get those odds on New York, but I'll take the over on them as I think Philly will be motivated to play hard at home to stay in the wildcard.

 

[kroyrunner89]

lines updated

 

[modogg]

i know Oakland plays pretty good at home (definately not the case last week), but i think Carolina giving 9.5 is the lock of the week. Funny because no one is mentioning it anywhere, but Carolina plays well on the road, and you can't say enough bad things about Oakland. KC getting 15 also seems like a smart pick as well. and i do agree with people about Tenn seems smart too, and Mia may fit that category as well

 

[Manster]

agreed about CAR, especially with Russell out. CAR should win by 3 TD's

 

[prosopis]

I lost a lot on college yesterday. I am scrambling to make it back

 

[tombonneau]

i know Oakland plays pretty good at home (definately not the case last week), but i think Carolina giving 9.5 is the lock of the week. Funny because no one is mentioning it anywhere, but Carolina plays well on the road, and you can't say enough bad things about Oakland. KC getting 15 also seems like a smart pick as well. and i do agree with people about Tenn seems smart too, and Mia may fit that category as well

Couldn't agree more. I locked them in at 9.5. It's still between 9-10 at my two books. I think if you can get CAR <10 take 'em. I watched that ATL-OAK game last week (had the under) and Oakland is just done. I don't see them scoring more than 10 points against that CAR defense, so you're basically wagering that CAR can score 20+ on Oakland, which like ATL they should crack at the half. Barring a complete stink bomb from Delhomme I'm quite happy with this play.Also took:

ATL -1

NE -3.5

NYG ML +150

MIN -2.5

 

[prosopis]

i know Oakland plays pretty good at home (definately not the case last week), but i think Carolina giving 9.5 is the lock of the week. Funny because no one is mentioning it anywhere, but Carolina plays well on the road, and you can't say enough bad things about Oakland. KC getting 15 also seems like a smart pick as well. and i do agree with people about Tenn seems smart too, and Mia may fit that category as well

Couldn't agree more. I locked them in at 9.5. It's still between 9-10 at my two books. I think if you can get CAR <10 take 'em. I watched that ATL-OAK game last week (had the under) and Oakland is just done. I don't see them scoring more than 10 points against that CAR defense, so you're basically wagering that CAR can score 20+ on Oakland, which like ATL they should crack at the half. Barring a complete stink bomb from Delhomme I'm quite happy with this play.Also took:

ATL -1

NE -3.5

NYG ML +150

MIN -2.5

Why Atl?I like NO coming off of the buy and they are healthy.(except fo Bush)

 

[tombonneau]

i know Oakland plays pretty good at home (definately not the case last week), but i think Carolina giving 9.5 is the lock of the week. Funny because no one is mentioning it anywhere, but Carolina plays well on the road, and you can't say enough bad things about Oakland. KC getting 15 also seems like a smart pick as well. and i do agree with people about Tenn seems smart too, and Mia may fit that category as well

Couldn't agree more. I locked them in at 9.5. It's still between 9-10 at my two books. I think if you can get CAR <10 take 'em. I watched that ATL-OAK game last week (had the under) and Oakland is just done. I don't see them scoring more than 10 points against that CAR defense, so you're basically wagering that CAR can score 20+ on Oakland, which like ATL they should crack at the half. Barring a complete stink bomb from Delhomme I'm quite happy with this play.Also took:

ATL -1

NE -3.5

NYG ML +150

MIN -2.5

Why Atl?I like NO coming off of the buy and they are healthy.(except fo Bush)

ATL has played great at home this year. I believe Payton is 0-2 ATS & SU coming off bye. Beyond that, I think ATL is the better team, they should run all over NO and pass when needed. See them winning 30-24 or something similar.

 

[prosopis]

i know Oakland plays pretty good at home (definately not the case last week), but i think Carolina giving 9.5 is the lock of the week. Funny because no one is mentioning it anywhere, but Carolina plays well on the road, and you can't say enough bad things about Oakland. KC getting 15 also seems like a smart pick as well. and i do agree with people about Tenn seems smart too, and Mia may fit that category as well

Couldn't agree more. I locked them in at 9.5. It's still between 9-10 at my two books. I think if you can get CAR <10 take 'em. I watched that ATL-OAK game last week (had the under) and Oakland is just done. I don't see them scoring more than 10 points against that CAR defense, so you're basically wagering that CAR can score 20+ on Oakland, which like ATL they should crack at the half. Barring a complete stink bomb from Delhomme I'm quite happy with this play.Also took:

ATL -1

NE -3.5

NYG ML +150

MIN -2.5

Why Atl?I like NO coming off of the buy and they are healthy.(except fo Bush)

ATL has played great at home this year. I believe Payton is 0-2 ATS & SU coming off bye. Beyond that, I think ATL is the better team, they should run all over NO and pass when needed. See them winning 30-24 or something similar.

Thanks for the insite. Maybe I will go with the over

 

[JKL]

Last week: 5-2

Overall: 31-16-3

===============================================

It looks like my picks are going to be opposite of the prevailing thought in this thread.

CHICAGO +3 vs Tennessee

New Orleans +1 at ATLANTA

Buffalo +3.5 at NEW ENGLAND

MINNESOTA -2.5 vs. Green Bay

OAKLAND +9.5 vs. Carolina

DETROIT +6.5 vs Jacksonville

 

[kroyrunner89]

Here's what my system showed for this week that I decided to go with:

Buffalo +3.5

Green Bay +2.5

Pittsburgh -3

New Orleans +1

 

[tombonneau]

FWIW Bal-Hou line is moving like crazy. Starting morning HOU +1 I'm now seeing it HOU -1.5 up to HOU -2.5. Locked it in at HOU -1.

 

[prosopis]

FWIW Bal-Hou line is moving like crazy. Starting morning HOU +1 I'm now seeing it HOU -1.5 up to HOU -2.5. Locked it in at HOU -1.

betjamaica has Hou -2.5

 

[prosopis]

NO +1.5

Tenn -3

GB +2.5

Hou -2.5

crazy 7 game teaser Det+13.5,NO+8.5,GB+9.5,Indy+10.5,Philly+4.5,SF/AZ O40,AZ-2.5

 

[tombonneau]

Last week: 5-2Overall: 31-16-3===============================================It looks like my picks are going to be opposite of the prevailing thought in this thread. CHICAGO +3 vs TennesseeNew Orleans +1 at ATLANTABuffalo +3.5 at NEW ENGLANDMINNESOTA -2.5 vs. Green BayOAKLAND +9.5 vs. CarolinaDETROIT +6.5 vs Jacksonville

Ouch. Sorry, dude.

 

[tombonneau]

i know Oakland plays pretty good at home (definately not the case last week), but i think Carolina giving 9.5 is the lock of the week. Funny because no one is mentioning it anywhere, but Carolina plays well on the road, and you can't say enough bad things about Oakland. KC getting 15 also seems like a smart pick as well. and i do agree with people about Tenn seems smart too, and Mia may fit that category as well

Couldn't agree more. I locked them in at 9.5. It's still between 9-10 at my two books. I think if you can get CAR <10 take 'em. I watched that ATL-OAK game last week (had the under) and Oakland is just done. I don't see them scoring more than 10 points against that CAR defense, so you're basically wagering that CAR can score 20+ on Oakland, which like ATL they should crack at the half. Barring a complete stink bomb from Delhomme I'm quite happy with this play.

Boy, the bolded above was the understatement of the year. Miracle that the Panthers pulled off the cover despite Delhomme's 12.3 rating effort. Not a fun game to be watching as a Panthers' bettor.

 

[packersfan]

I am a Seabastian Janikowski fan for life. Thanks to him missing the FG at the end, the Panthers covered and I won my three-team parlay.

I can't believe the Panthers struggled to cover. I figured of the three games I picked, that one was the lock.

 

[modogg]

Amen on Janikowski hitting the crossbar on the 58 yard attempt. I have to see some highlights of the game, because how does Delhomme throw 4 INT's? I was sweating some bullets as i was listening to the end of the game on the radio, but you have to be lucky to be a good gambler. I am thinking Oakland is going to be tough to bet with or against for the rest of the year. My only guess is teams that play down to their competition may really struggle in Oakland. I just can't imagine how Oakland will put up any points for the rest of the year

 

[Chunky Soup]

Here's what my system showed for this week that I decided to go with:Buffalo +3.5Green Bay +2.5Pittsburgh -3New Orleans +1

You could probably use a new "system"...

 

[duece2626]

Need the G-Men to win outright or lose by less than 3 to hit my 5 teamer.

 

[tombonneau]

Amen on Janikowski hitting the crossbar on the 58 yard attempt. I have to see some highlights of the game, because how does Delhomme throw 4 INT's? I was sweating some bullets as i was listening to the end of the game on the radio, but you have to be lucky to be a good gambler. I am thinking Oakland is going to be tough to bet with or against for the rest of the year. My only guess is teams that play down to their competition may really struggle in Oakland. I just can't imagine how Oakland will put up any points for the rest of the year

Just be glad you were not watching the game, my friend. It was BRUTAL. Oakland's only points were because Delhomme threw two terrible third quarter picks that set Oakland up at the Carolina 30-something. The D held them to 3-and-out, but they were still able to get FGs out of both picks. Other than that, Oakland could not move the ball at all.On the one hand, I was happy I correctly capped the game thinking that all Carolina needed to do is hit 20+ because no way Oakland scored 10+, and that the only thing that would prevent Carolina from scoring would be a terrible game by Delhomme, and man, did he have a terrible game. As far as Oakland the rest of the year, I won on the under last week vs. Atlanta, and I'm sure this week hit the under as well. They could be a consistent under play. Their D is good enough so team's normally won't score 30+, but that offense will struggle to consistently put up double-digit points.

 

[tombonneau]

Need the G-Men to win outright or lose by less than 3 to hit my 5 teamer.

Good luck with that! Not sure what the payout is, but if it's big I'd consider hedging with a straight wager on Philly.

 

[duece2626]

Need the G-Men to win outright or lose by less than 3 to hit my 5 teamer.

Good luck with that! Not sure what the payout is, but if it's big I'd consider hedging with a straight wager on Philly.

Nothing big really. I bet $5 to win $117 on the parlay. Parlay (5 Teams) 11/05/08 00:27 ET bet 5.00 to win 117.26 Result: Pending Giants(NewYork) Eagles(Philadelphia) 11/09/08(20:25 ET)Giants(NewYork) +3 (-125) Jaguars(Jacksonville) 38 Lions(Detroit) 14 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Jaguars(Jacksonville) -6.5 Panthers(Carolina) 17 Raiders(Oakland) 6 11/09/08(16:10 ET)Panthers(Carolina) -9 Ravens(Baltimore) 41 Texans(Houston) 13 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Ravens(Baltimore) -1 Titans(Tennessee) 21 Bears(Chicago) 14 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Titans(Tennessee) -3 (-105)

 

[tombonneau]

Need the G-Men to win outright or lose by less than 3 to hit my 5 teamer.

Good luck with that! Not sure what the payout is, but if it's big I'd consider hedging with a straight wager on Philly.

Nothing big really. I bet $5 to win $117 on the parlay. Parlay (5 Teams) 11/05/08 00:27 ET bet 5.00 to win 117.26 Result: Pending Giants(NewYork) Eagles(Philadelphia) 11/09/08(20:25 ET)Giants(NewYork) +3 (-125) Jaguars(Jacksonville) 38 Lions(Detroit) 14 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Jaguars(Jacksonville) -6.5 Panthers(Carolina) 17 Raiders(Oakland) 6 11/09/08(16:10 ET)Panthers(Carolina) -9 Ravens(Baltimore) 41 Texans(Houston) 13 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Ravens(Baltimore) -1 Titans(Tennessee) 21 Bears(Chicago) 14 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Titans(Tennessee) -3 (-105)

If that's the case, I'd put $50 on Philly, so no matter what happens I'd net $50-something in winnings. I guess just depends on your temperament and what kind of gambler you are.

 

[duece2626]

Need the G-Men to win outright or lose by less than 3 to hit my 5 teamer.

Good luck with that! Not sure what the payout is, but if it's big I'd consider hedging with a straight wager on Philly.

Nothing big really. I bet $5 to win $117 on the parlay. Parlay (5 Teams) 11/05/08 00:27 ET bet 5.00 to win 117.26 Result: Pending Giants(NewYork) Eagles(Philadelphia) 11/09/08(20:25 ET)Giants(NewYork) +3 (-125) Jaguars(Jacksonville) 38 Lions(Detroit) 14 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Jaguars(Jacksonville) -6.5 Panthers(Carolina) 17 Raiders(Oakland) 6 11/09/08(16:10 ET)Panthers(Carolina) -9 Ravens(Baltimore) 41 Texans(Houston) 13 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Ravens(Baltimore) -1 Titans(Tennessee) 21 Bears(Chicago) 14 11/09/08(13:05 ET)Titans(Tennessee) -3 (-105)

 

[kroyrunner89]

what have you guys got for tonight? my system has a pretty strong reading for the over, but not much value on sides. what are your thoughts?

 

[tombonneau]

I like AZ but would not wager on this one. Not ready just yet to lay that kind of chalk with AZ in prime time. Still not 100% believing in them.

Over seems like a safe bet. Esp. because MNF seems to be hitting the over every single week. I'd maybe tease AZ & the Over?