* Minnesota/Miami UNDER 39.5 (-110 @ Pinnacle)
Miami's offense struggled on the road last week against a Buffalo defense that really isn't very good, and things get no easier for them this week as they travel to Minnesota and face one of the better defenses in the NFL. The running game has been the normal focus of attack for the Dolphins on offense, however matched up against one of the best run defenses in the NFL this week I don't see them being able to generate much production on the ground. This means that Henne will have to air the ball out against an injured Minnesota secondary, with the lack of chemistry he's shown so far with Brandon Marshall I don't think there's much of a threat of this offense finding many explosive plays. Griffin and Cook are both listed as questionable for this weekend, obviously if one or both of them play it helps our cause for the under, however even without them I think that points will be tough to come by in this one for the Dolphins.
On Minnesota's side of the ball, Favre will continue to adjust to life without Sydney Rice as he tries to develop some kind of chemistry with the other receivers. Adrian Peterson will be a threat as always, however the Minnesota offensive line hasn't shown me much recently and I think it's going to limit what the Vikings can do this year much more than last. The Miami defense looked improved last week against the Bills, and I think should be able to slow down the Minnesota attack enough to give themselves a shot at being in this game late. I don't think either team finds the end-zone more than twice, this game should end under the total without much problem.
* Dallas Cowboys -7 (-104 @ Pinnacle)
At first glance, the Cowboys don't seem like they should be favorites of a touchdown against anyone. Their offense has been sluggish since the preseason, and while the defense has looked pretty good the lack of points on the board has been tough to overcome. Regardless, this is the week I believe that changes. We all know how loaded the Cowboys are at the skill positions, but so far this year they've had offensive line issues that have limited what these players are able to do. This week, two big pieces return to the line as Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier come back from injuries to offer this unit a boost at home against the hapless Bears. Chicago's defense is still a bit of a question mark, as we've yet to see if Julius Peppers and Brian Urlacher can still be the impact players they once were. Given how poorly this unit played on the road all of last season though, I think there's a good chance that the Cowboys' offensive line holds up much better this week and they put up 24+ points against Chicago.
As for the Bears' offense, despite racking up 362 yards of offense against the Lions they still managed to put only 19 points on the board. The offensive line also continues to be a huge concern, as Cutler took four more sacks against a Lions' defense that is certainly not as good as the Cowboys'. The running game also showed no signs of improvement last week as it took the team 31 carries to amass 100 yards. Most concerning for the Bears' offense though - 20 of Cutler's 26 interceptions last year came on the road. With Ware expected to play on defense for Dallas this week, expect the Dallas defense to be at full strength and Cutler to be under constant pressure. This should lead to a couple turnovers, and the Bears will lose this game by double digits when all is said and done.
* Green Bay Packers -13 (+102 @ Pinnacle)
The Packers ground out a tough win on the road last week against the Eagles, and return home this week to face a much softer Bills team. The Bills looked absolutely terrible on offense at home last week against the Dolphins, gaining just 166 yards of offense and scoring only 10 points - 7 of them due to a blown coverage on 4th and 11. While it's clear that Miami has improved on defense this year, Buffalo's struggles at home are certainly a preview of what to expect when they play what could very well be a better Packers defense this week on the road. Green Bay was one of the top defensive units last year, and despite losing some pieces still look to be solid this year as they were shutting down the Eagles' offense until Michael Vick entered the game. Simply put, the Bills don't have any kind of offensive player as multidimensional as Vick, and the Packers will do to this Buffalo offense what they were doing to the Eagles' before Kolb got knocked out of the game. If Buffalo finds a way to top 14 points in this game, I'll be stunned. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see their point total stay in single digits. For the Green Bay offense, that just leaves the task of scoring in the high 20s. While Philadelphia made Rodgers and the Packers' passing attack look average at times, Buffalo has no kind of blitzing threat to do this. Paul Posluszny will not be playing in this game due to an injury, and the Bills lost one of their best pass rushers from last year Aaron Schobel. Despite the pressure the Packers still managed to hang 27 points on the Eagles, and against a Buffalo defense that won't come close to matching what Philadelphia did I can easily see the Packers topping 30 points in this game. Green Bay should come out focused for their home opener, and open up a sizable lead by halftime. Look for a blowout win as the Packers tune up for their upcoming Monday night showdown against the Bears.
* New York Jets +3 (-115 @ Bookmaker)
The Jets aren't nearly as bad as they looked on Monday night, and the Patriots aren't nearly as good as they looked against the Bengals. While New York's offense certainly struggled against the Ravens, it's because their offense is not one that's cut out to take advantage of the Ravens' weaknesses in the secondary. Once Baltimore shut down the running game, it was all over for the Jets. Furthermore, Baltimore's offensive line is one of the best in the league, making it very tough for the Jets' blitzes to get to Flacco and allowing the Ravens to convert their 3rd and longs so many times. When Brady comes to town on Sunday, I can say with quite a bit of certainty that the Jets will be able to get quite a bit of pressure on him. While Brady looked great last Sunday against the Bengals, he never faced any kind of pressure whatsoever, and I think that it was more because of a lack of pass rush from the Bengals than to the credit of the offensive line. Logan Mankins is still holding out, and I expect his absence to show up in a big way this Sunday as Brady constantly finds himself under pressure. The Jets are going to open up their playbook for Sanchez this week, and I think that they'll get their running game going without much trouble which will allow him to be in more third and short situations rather than third and long. I'm not going to panic on the Jets and I'm going to stick with my opinion on them, look for them to get their first win this weekend.
* San Fransisco 49ers +5.5 (-102 @ Pinnacle)
I'm taking another shot with the 49ers as I think they find themselves in a very favorable spot this week. While their Week 1 loss to the Seahawks was very puzzling, early in the game I did see positive signs from them and recognize how easily they could have been up 14-0 in that game. Once things weren't going their way they completely fell apart, and played very far below the level of football they're capable of playing at. Monday night, the defending champion New Orleans Saints come to face the 49ers in what some people expect to be a blowout. One thing my mind keeps going back to though is last year when four point favorite Arizona played at San Fransisco on a Monday night. At the time the Cardinals were boasting a high flying passing attack, yet the 49ers completely shut down Warner and the Cardinals forcing six turnovers and holding the explosive Arizona offense to nine points. I've seen a pattern in the Saints over the last couple years where they play at a lower level on the road, and while their rush defense looked good against Minnesota in the opener I still don't trust the unit at all and think Frank Gore has a great chance to get going and put up some big yards in this game. The 49ers should control the clock and limit what Brees and the Saints' offense can do in this game, while an outright win is certainly possible I expect this game to go down to the wire and for the points to matter in the end.
Survivor Picks of the Week:
Green Bay Packers
Dallas Cowboys
That's it for this week everyone, good luck to anyone who wagers and hopefully we can get back on the winning track!
