* Bears/Panthers UNDER 33 (-104 @ Pinnacle)
I told myself coming into this week that I wasn’t going to pick particularly high or low totals anymore unless it was a special circumstance. Of course, this week we see one of these special circumstances fall right on our lap. No Steve Smith for the Panthers immediately takes one of their best offensive weapons out of the mix, which means that the Bears don’t have to commit an extra man to him on a double team and can now focus on stacking the box and stopping the run. While I’m not convinced they’re the elite run defense we think they are, they’ll definitely be able to do enough to slow down the Carolina rushing game which quite frankly hasn’t been anything special so far this year. For the Bears, no Jay Cutler pretty much eliminates the quick scoring threat immediately. Collins doesn’t have the arm to heave the ball downfield, and we’ll probably see a lot more dump off passes to Forte or short routes in what will certainly be a very conservative offensive plan. Chicago is 5th worst in yards per rush attempt, Carolina is 5th best in yards per rush attempt allowed, there won’t be much of a ground game for the Bears and this will be a very low scoring game.
* Bills/Jaguars OVER 40.5 (-108 @ Pinnacle)
This game features two of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Bills return a couple defenders to the lineup, but Terrence McGee still won’t be on the field which will allow the Jaguars to get everything they want and more through the air in this one. Buffalo hasn’t been great throwing the ball, but ever since Fitzpatrick came into the lineup for the Bills they’ve shown a little more explosiveness. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed, so Buffalo should be able to keep up enough on the scoreboard to have a real shot at winning in the end, pushing the total over in the process.
* Bengals/Bucs UNDER 38 (-105 @ Pinnacle)
Before we get too excited about Carson Palmer’s improvement last week, let’s remember that 78 yards and a touchdown of that were pretty flukey as the defender covering Owens fell down. That would leave the Bengals with 335 total yards of offense and 13 points, the same Bengals I’ve always known. This week they face a Tampa Bay defense that is better against the pass than the Browns, and while the Bucs struggle more against the run we could likely see a lot more action on the ground as the Bengals try to establish Cedric Benson’s presence in the game. Throw in the Bucs having two weeks to prepare for this game and I think the Bengals’ offense is reasonably limited once again. For the Bucs, they’re up against another tough defense as Cinci is 7th best in yards per pass attempt allowed. Tampa has struggled running the ball, and likely won’t be able to get much going against the Bengals in that phase of the game either. Look for this one to stay low scoring as both offenses have trouble getting things going.
* San Diego Chargers -6 (-110 @ Pinnacle)
* Chargers/Raiders UNDER 45 (-109 @ Pinnacle)
I hate picking heavy public favorites like the Chargers as I always feel like I’m walking into a trap, but there’s too much to like about their situation this week to stay away. For starters, the Chargers boast the #2 passing defense and #11 rushing defense, by far they’ll be the toughest defense Oakland has faced yet. Gradkowski and the Raiders haven’t done great through the air, as they’re 6th worst in the NFL in yards per pass attempt. Their passing game will be very limited in this game, and they’re going to have to hope that they can run the ball effectively to have any chance of offense. The Chargers’ biggest problem so far has been killing themselves with mistakes and turnovers, something that would certainly bode well for our under should they do that here. Their other issue has been vulnerability in the return game, but Oakland has been nothing special in this phase of the game and shouldn’t be able to take advantage of that weakness. Oakland won’t score many points in this one, I’d be shocked if they topped 17. That means we need 23 points at most out of the Chargers for them to cover, which should be well within their reach as they are #1 in yards per pass attempt, #10 in yards per rush attempt, and face the worst run defense in the NFL. If the Chargers fail to cover it’s because they made too many mistakes and didn’t score enough, if the total goes over it’s because they blew the Raiders out. We’re looking at a 1-1 split at worst, but I think we have a great chance at 2-0 and will gladly risk eating some juice for that opportunity.
* Eagles/49ers UNDER 38 (-105 @ Pinnacle)
We all remember the 49ers Monday night game against the Saints a couple weeks ago and how good they looked. Of course, we all expect to see that again now as they’re in a must win game at home against the depleted Eagles offense. Well, I’m on board, at least for their level of play on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles have a very suspect offensive line, and without Vick their offense lacks the explosiveness it once had. The 49ers limited Brees and the Saints a couple weeks ago, and I fully expect them to do the same to the Eagles here in this game. On the offensive side of the ball however, they’re facing an Eagles defense that is much better than the Saints defense they faced a few weeks ago. We see now the Saints are 9th worst in the NFL against the pass and 9th worst against the run, while the Eagles still do struggle to stop the run (12th worst in the NFL), they excel against the pass as they’re 4th best in the league. Alex Smith has been terrible so far this season, and will continue to struggle against an aggressive Eagles defense that will force him into a couple mistakes and very much limit their offense. While it’s very easy to see either team covering in this game, it’s going to wind up being a defensive struggle, giving us an easy under.
I may be back with a Monday night pick, I’m going to wait and get official status on Revis and Pace first. But that’s all for Sunday, good luck everyone!
As a Birds fan, I hate to say it, I think they get rolled pretty good tonight.
