One thing I have noticed about Norton's projections (1 Viewer)

[Ozymandias]

He consistently overrates Madieu Williams, and underrates Ken Clements. I have them both, and Clements has outperformed Williams by a substantial amount. But almost every week, the projections for Williams are higher.

Just my 2c.

 

[obxlegends]

He consistently overrates Madieu Williams, and underrates Ken Clements. I have them both, and Clements has outperformed Williams by a substantial amount. But almost every week, the projections for Williams are higher. Just my 2c.

Williams trounces Ken Clements.

 

[Ozymandias]

He consistently overrates Madieu Williams, and underrates Ken Clements. I have them both, and Clements has outperformed Williams by a substantial amount. But almost every week, the projections for Williams are higher. Just my 2c.

Williams trounces Ken Clements.

Another thing I've noticed is I keep forgetting his name is Nate

 

[KellysHeroes]

nothing against Norton or anyone else who puts their time into making up Projections...

but if your actually paying someone to guess what a player is going too do weekly and you actually judge your line up on it... then this isn't a hobby anymore, whats the point of playing then... just give that person your password and have them set up your line up weekly.

 

[Ozymandias]

nothing against Norton or anyone else who puts their time into making up Projections... but if your actually paying someone to guess what a player is going too do weekly and you actually judge your line up on it... then this isn't a hobby anymore, whats the point of playing then... just give that person your password and have them set up your line up weekly.

That's not the point. I make my own lineup. But I have noticed a trend, and I thought it was interesting. Week to week, nobody gets it right; the fluctuations are too great. But when I notice that Madieu Williams is usually close to the top in projections, and Clements far down the list, and then I see by my results that Clements usually outperforms him, I thought it was interesting. So far this year, Clements has 64 tackles and 9 assists. Williams 55 and 13. Clements has 11 PD, Williams 7. Sacks, Int's, FF and FR, Clements has 7, Williams 6. Those scores place Clements #1 in my league, and Williams #17. Scoring systems differ, so I am well aware the standings could change in other leagues. But this week, once again, the projections have Williams at #2, and Clements at #63. He could be right.

 

[Zoomanji]

I see all IDP projection as guess work. The only consistent scorers are Safetys and MLBs.

I rarely go with the projections and try to do it based more on match-ups.

For DBs- does the other team throw a lot?

For DL- does the other team have a bad O-line?

My guesswork is about as good as IDP projections. And I go with the guy who is hot.

Total crapshoot (sorry Jene) with IDP, IMO

 

[Jene Bramel]

I see all IDP projection as guess work. The only consistent scorers are Safetys and MLBs.

I rarely go with the projections and try to do it based more on match-ups.

For DBs- does the other team throw a lot?

For DL- does the other team have a bad O-line?

My guesswork is about as good as IDP projections. And I go with the guy who is hot.

Total crapshoot (sorry Jene) with IDP, IMO

All right, that's it. I don't care how much the team and player writeups suffer this spring, the IDP Mythbusters series of articles I haven't found time to spill from my brain are getting written this spring.

We need them now more than ever.

 

[bonscott]

So far this year, Clements has 64 tackles and 9 assists. Williams 55 and 13. Clements has 11 PD, Williams 7. Sacks, Int's, FF and FR, Clements has 7, Williams 6. Those scores place Clements #1 in my league, and Williams #17. Scoring systems differ, so I am well aware the standings could change in other leagues. But this week, once again, the projections have Williams at #2, and Clements at #63. He could be right.

True.In my league Clements is #4 and Williams #8.

I also think you're looking at the ranking a bit too much like some other people.

For this coming week MyFBG has Clements ranked #58. But add just one tackle to his stats and he is ranked #26.

Same goes for Williams ranked #5. Take away a tackle and he drops to #26 or so.

So basically just one tackle here or there and they are basically even.

Personally if you are to decide which to start I'd go with Clements as Williams keeps getting hurt unless you feel Williams is fully healthy.

 

[Ozymandias]

So far this year, Clements has 64 tackles and 9 assists. Williams 55 and 13. Clements has 11 PD, Williams 7. Sacks, Int's, FF and FR, Clements has 7, Williams 6. Those scores place Clements #1 in my league, and Williams #17. Scoring systems differ, so I am well aware the standings could change in other leagues. But this week, once again, the projections have Williams at #2, and Clements at #63. He could be right.

True.In my league Clements is #4 and Williams #8.

I also think you're looking at the ranking a bit too much like some other people.

For this coming week MyFBG has Clements ranked #58. But add just one tackle to his stats and he is ranked #26.

Same goes for Williams ranked #5. Take away a tackle and he drops to #26 or so.

So basically just one tackle here or there and they are basically even.

Personally if you are to decide which to start I'd go with Clements as Williams keeps getting hurt unless you feel Williams is fully healthy.

I actually start them both, as we start two. But in the last 8 weeks, the ranking for Williams was 1, 18, 17, 7, 1, 1, 5, 3. The rankings for Clements were 67, 22, 43, 55, 11, 45, 75 and 0. Because I have them both, those rankings stood out a bit.

 

[J Giles Band]

Clements is the #1 ranked DB in my league and Williams is #13.

Williams' status in the projections has been brought up (much less eloquently) in another thread and despite the poor approach in the previous thread there likely is a hint of merit in the assertion that Williams shouldn't be the top ranked DB.

Not sure what the guy who posted earlier thinks Williams trounces Clements in (I'm guessing he was joking)... but it's not football.

 

[bcr8f]

Borbely's strong/weak plays success rate seems to be about 50%. Predicting is a tough job.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Borbely's strong/weak plays success rate seems to be about 50%. Predicting is a tough job.

I personally think if you can pick 60% of those type players (the non studs), then you will win a lot of games. If you can pick 70%, tell me some lottery numbers. 55% is pretty good, 50% is exactly that, 50%, which is average. Below that is not good enough. I'm at 55% for my strong plays, and just under 50% for my weak plays. Not acceptable to me, but in reality, this year has been a nightmare for this.

Here are a couple of tidbits:

A sack is worth 4 points in FBG scoring. The player also gets credit for a tackle, which is another 1.5 points. So, in FBG scoring, a sack is worth 5.5 total points. If he gets so much as one more tackle, he would qualify as a strong play. For D linemen, its pretty much this simple 90% of the time: get a sack, you are a strong play, don't get a sack, you are a weak play. I post in the every week opening that D linemen are the toughest to get right, and it's for the above reason.

Below is a player I selected as a weak play in last week's article:

DB New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - FS Josh Bullocks

There have only been two games all year in which a DB has had an interception against Tampa Bay. DBs have also only had 10 passes defended all year, and six of those came in one game. There has only been one free safety all season to have more than four solo tackles against the Buccaneers. Needless to say, Bullocks has a terrible matchup this week, and should be on your bench.

After the Bucs had only allowed one free safety all season to get even above FOUR SOLO TACKLES, Bullocks had 10. With the above data, I feel I made a good call. Obviously, it didn't turn out that way. If I'm sitting here right now, knowing the above (not the final numbers), I still would not start him.

I only select 6 strong and 6 weaks per week and that is not easy. I can't imagine doing EVERY player like Norton does every week. I find it ridiculous that a player or 2 gets singled out of a few hundred players.

Here is something about Nate Clements:

In his first 10 games, he had:

41 solo tackles (4.1 per game)

6 assists (.6 per game)

2 INT's

6 PD's

In his last 3 games, he had:

8, 8 and 7 solo tackles, 23 total...almost double his average after 10 games.

3 assists

1 INT

5 PD's...a much higher average than his first 10 games.

Now when anyone can tell me how you predict the huge increase in tackle numbers, for 3 weeks, let me know.

There are numerous other examples like this. There is no way I will ever predict a CB to have 8 tackles in a game on a week to week basis. In his first 10 games, Clements only had ONE game with more than 6 solo tackles. But Clements had more than that now for the last 3 weeks , and that is why he has vaulted up the season rankings. Prior to these last 3 games, Williams was ranked ahead of Clements in FBG scoring for most of the season. Now, Clements has rocketed up to #1. It is a surprise to me, and has to be to most, because nobody talked about Clements in here until now.

Now look back at a DL. If someone thinks a player is not a good start due to matchups and other factors, such as a low number of sacks allowed, then he will not project many points. Common sense, right? Here is one example, a DE is playing a team that rarely gives up sacks. I don't recall the player (I think it was either Tuck or Cole), but earlier this season, an offensive linemen blew an assignment (picked up a blitz, let his DL blow right by), and the QB got sacked. The DL had not done a thing, but makes one play because nobody blocked him, gets a sack, forces a fumble, and recovers it. All of a sudden, this DL goes from a terrible game to a great game, on ONE PLAY. Looking back, the player had such a bad matchup that there is no way you could start him.

Variance from week to week is impossible to predict for hundreds of players. There are just too many variables. But like I said, you give me a top 10 DB, and I'll give you a player who is in my lineup every week, barring a ridiculously bad matchup.

 

[Rozelle]

Predicting and projecting is a tough business. Takes guts to put it out there with your name on it. I think if people would use it as a tool and not a crutch, (as I think most do) they would get more out of it.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Predicting and projecting is a tough business. Takes guts to put it out there with your name on it. I think if people would use it as a tool and not a crutch, (as I think most do) they would get more out of it.

I personal will never pay for projections... I much rather play this game myself. Nothing against the people making money off this; I would too if given the opp.. but I don't like reading threads about people claiming they lost because they followed projections. Not saying th OP is doing this, because their not... but I seen it too many times...

 

[1rebmun]

looks like he might be out this week

http://rotoworld.com/content/playernews.as...ter_position=DB

 

[Ozymandias]

looks like he might be out this week

http://rotoworld.com/content/playernews.as...ter_position=DB

If he's out, then Norton will knock him down ten notches to #12

 

[Ozymandias]

The love affair with Madieu Williams continues...

But at least Clements moved up to #23.

 

[bonscott]

The love affair with Madieu Williams continues...But at least Clements moved up to #23.

How do you figure that? He is ranked #112 in my scoring system on the cheetsheet and he actually outperformed his stat projection.