Patriots being investigated after Colts game (5 Viewers)

[jonessed]

It's kind of cute how the Pats fans are going all courtroom on this ####. The NFL doesn't have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt like a damn murder trial.

well its pretty obvious this isnt a court of law seeing how many people have the pats guilty and punished already without a trace of evidence they did anything wrong

The balls were below NFL rules. Thats a fact.

An NFL "crime" was committed.

The standards to prove this aren't the same as a court of law. The only issue now is finding out WHO exactly is responsible. If they cant specifically pin this on Tom Brady(which i doubt they will, unless they don't pay the ball boy enough to keep his mouth shut) they will punish the team as a whole. Draft picks and a monetary fine. $250,000 is my guess a repeat offender.

Every football game where a ball started out inflated at 12.5psi at 68d, played outside at a temperature under 68d F will be in violation of the rules, as the pressure will drop below 12.5psi.

That's why they have a range and require them to be filled to a certain level. That way taking into account weather changes, which have a minimal effect on the actual PSI, doesn't effect the balance and feel of the ball. Maybe they know that if a ball falls to 12 PSI it doesn't effect the shape of the ball, but anything 11.5 and below does. So they set the limit at 12.5 knowing even if it's 10 degrees outside that it would only fall to the "safe" range.

Given the amount of time and money the NFL is spending on the investigation I think it's safe to rule out the weather as the cause.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Love how you didn't include ALL the former NFL coaches/players who've said it's no big deal. Nice cherry picking.

I didn't cherry pick anything. All of what I included was in one article. There wasn't anything in the article saying it wasn't a big deal. Read it yourself, wiseass.

Poor research on your part then. There's been plenty of people who've came out and said its no big deal.

Poor research? I wasn't researching anything. I was reading news articles, and that one was listed with others. I thought it was relevant to this thread so I posted it. Did you read the article, because it is more about these people saying they don't believe Tom Brady than saying it is a big deal. Personally, I don't believe Brady either. He would immediately know the difference in the feel of the ball. Do I think it is a big deal? I think it is par for the course with the Patriots.

Brady has a wet ball for 3 seconds at a time with a 300lb lineman coming his way on every play. You seriously think he has time to think about whether the ball is underinflated by 2 PSI?? lol. We've got some winners here.

How were the Colts able to tell the difference once they got a hold of it? You think they used a pressure meter on a whim?

Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/22/globe-reporter-billy-baker-tackles-deflategate/hNgvlTTTOvU4Dz6I3eluBL/story.html

A bunch of desk nerds can't tell the difference (mostly)? That's your argument?

 

[mbuehner]

It's kind of cute how the Pats fans are going all courtroom on this ####. The NFL doesn't have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt like a damn murder trial.

well its pretty obvious this isnt a court of law seeing how many people have the pats guilty and punished already without a trace of evidence they did anything wrong

The balls were below NFL rules. Thats a fact.

An NFL "crime" was committed.

The standards to prove this aren't the same as a court of law. The only issue now is finding out WHO exactly is responsible. If they cant specifically pin this on Tom Brady(which i doubt they will, unless they don't pay the ball boy enough to keep his mouth shut) they will punish the team as a whole. Draft picks and a monetary fine. $250,000 is my guess a repeat offender.

Every football game where a ball started out inflated at 12.5psi at 68d, played outside at a temperature under 68d F will be in violation of the rules, as the pressure will drop below 12.5psi.

That's why they have a range and require them to be filled to a certain level. That way taking into account weather changes, which have a minimal effect on the actual PSI, doesn't effect the balance and feel of the ball. Maybe they know that if a ball falls to 12 PSI it doesn't effect the shape of the ball, but anything 11.5 and below does. So they set the limit at 12.5 knowing even if it's 10 degrees outside that it would only fall to the "safe" range.

If thats the case, you shouldnt expect the ball to remain 12.5psi halfway through a game, and this entire bruhaha is pointless.

 

[Run It Up]

Love how you didn't include ALL the former NFL coaches/players who've said it's no big deal. Nice cherry picking.

I didn't cherry pick anything. All of what I included was in one article. There wasn't anything in the article saying it wasn't a big deal. Read it yourself, wiseass.

Poor research on your part then. There's been plenty of people who've came out and said its no big deal.

Poor research? I wasn't researching anything. I was reading news articles, and that one was listed with others. I thought it was relevant to this thread so I posted it. Did you read the article, because it is more about these people saying they don't believe Tom Brady than saying it is a big deal. Personally, I don't believe Brady either. He would immediately know the difference in the feel of the ball. Do I think it is a big deal? I think it is par for the course with the Patriots.

Brady has a wet ball for 3 seconds at a time with a 300lb lineman coming his way on every play. You seriously think he has time to think about whether the ball is underinflated by 2 PSI?? lol. We've got some winners here.

How were the Colts able to tell the difference once they got a hold of it? You think they used a pressure meter on a whim?

Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/22/globe-reporter-billy-baker-tackles-deflategate/hNgvlTTTOvU4Dz6I3eluBL/story.html

A bunch of desk nerds can't tell the difference (mostly)? That's your argument?

Your word based on nothing - that's your argument?

 

[MG345]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

 

[randall146]

Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football.

No one is saying that. They're saying you can't tell if a ball is specifically at 12.5 psi or under 12.5 in one throw

 

[mbuehner]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

READ THE SECOND SENTENCE. THIS WASNT IN REGARD TO THIS SPECIFIC GAME.

 

[msudaisy26]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

The Colts really weren't on offense long enough for the balls to get cold and deflate.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Love how you didn't include ALL the former NFL coaches/players who've said it's no big deal. Nice cherry picking.

I didn't cherry pick anything. All of what I included was in one article. There wasn't anything in the article saying it wasn't a big deal. Read it yourself, wiseass.

Poor research on your part then. There's been plenty of people who've came out and said its no big deal.

Poor research? I wasn't researching anything. I was reading news articles, and that one was listed with others. I thought it was relevant to this thread so I posted it. Did you read the article, because it is more about these people saying they don't believe Tom Brady than saying it is a big deal. Personally, I don't believe Brady either. He would immediately know the difference in the feel of the ball. Do I think it is a big deal? I think it is par for the course with the Patriots.

Brady has a wet ball for 3 seconds at a time with a 300lb lineman coming his way on every play. You seriously think he has time to think about whether the ball is underinflated by 2 PSI?? lol. We've got some winners here.

How were the Colts able to tell the difference once they got a hold of it? You think they used a pressure meter on a whim?

Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/22/globe-reporter-billy-baker-tackles-deflategate/hNgvlTTTOvU4Dz6I3eluBL/story.html

A bunch of desk nerds can't tell the difference (mostly)? That's your argument?

Dude said "Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football." I was simply pointing out that it's not that simple. That was also with having two of the balls side by side and handling them immediately one after the other, with maximum concentration on the inflation of the ball and not, oh say, calling plays, reading a defense, and avoiding getting tackled.

 

[BroadwayG]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

They were correctly inflated at halftime.

 

[stbugs]

Love how you didn't include ALL the former NFL coaches/players who've said it's no big deal. Nice cherry picking.

I didn't cherry pick anything. All of what I included was in one article. There wasn't anything in the article saying it wasn't a big deal. Read it yourself, wiseass.

Poor research on your part then. There's been plenty of people who've came out and said its no big deal.

Poor research? I wasn't researching anything. I was reading news articles, and that one was listed with others. I thought it was relevant to this thread so I posted it. Did you read the article, because it is more about these people saying they don't believe Tom Brady than saying it is a big deal. Personally, I don't believe Brady either. He would immediately know the difference in the feel of the ball. Do I think it is a big deal? I think it is par for the course with the Patriots.

Brady has a wet ball for 3 seconds at a time with a 300lb lineman coming his way on every play. You seriously think he has time to think about whether the ball is underinflated by 2 PSI?? lol. We've got some winners here.

How were the Colts able to tell the difference once they got a hold of it? You think they used a pressure meter on a whim?

Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/22/globe-reporter-billy-baker-tackles-deflategate/hNgvlTTTOvU4Dz6I3eluBL/story.html

A bunch of desk nerds can't tell the difference (mostly)? That's your argument?

Joe Theismann also said he couldn't tell the difference. Is that good enough since it isn't an ESPN talking head? LINK

 

[MG345]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

They were correctly inflated at halftime.

They all would have been filled at the same time, essentially. The 12 balls that were used in the second half were the back up balls, out of the pool of the original 24 that the Patriots could use.

Even if they were inflated at half time, what about the Colts balls which remained at the level (or not significantly below) that they were checked? Those were not inflated at halftime.

 

[stbugs]

Love how you didn't include ALL the former NFL coaches/players who've said it's no big deal. Nice cherry picking.

I didn't cherry pick anything. All of what I included was in one article. There wasn't anything in the article saying it wasn't a big deal. Read it yourself, wiseass.

Poor research on your part then. There's been plenty of people who've came out and said its no big deal.

Poor research? I wasn't researching anything. I was reading news articles, and that one was listed with others. I thought it was relevant to this thread so I posted it. Did you read the article, because it is more about these people saying they don't believe Tom Brady than saying it is a big deal. Personally, I don't believe Brady either. He would immediately know the difference in the feel of the ball. Do I think it is a big deal? I think it is par for the course with the Patriots.

Brady has a wet ball for 3 seconds at a time with a 300lb lineman coming his way on every play. You seriously think he has time to think about whether the ball is underinflated by 2 PSI?? lol. We've got some winners here.

How were the Colts able to tell the difference once they got a hold of it? You think they used a pressure meter on a whim?

Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football.

That isnt what happene Jackson said he couldnt tell the difference after the interception. The Colts 'knew' because they were #####ing about it after their last game against Pats during regular season.

Gotcha. I wasn't aware of that.

The interception ball went to the equipment manager and he noticed it.

Alleged, by one unnamed source.

No one has corroborated that yet.

Plus the Colts alerted the NFL before the game. Of course they'd "notice" the difference. They knew it was going to be that way. Jackson didn't notice because unlike the Colts staff, he was prepping for the game.

 

[BroadwayG]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

They were correctly inflated at halftime.

They all would have been filled at the same time, essentially. The 12 balls that were used in the second half were the back up balls, out of the pool of the original 24 that the Patriots could use.

Even if they were inflated at half time, what about the Colts balls which remained at the level (or not significantly below) that they were checked? Those were not inflated at halftime.

The colts balls were filled in cold weather, hence no deflation. And none of them were gronked, which also causes deflation.

 

[the moops]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

 

[Anarchy99]

The part of the statement that should concern the Patriots is: "Our investigation will seek information from any and all relevant sources and we expect full cooperation from other clubs as well."

If they can show proof that the Pats have been altering footballs as a regular practice over an extended time, that puts things at a whole other level and the league would have much more recourse to fry the Pats.

I will say if the league's master plan was to catch them in the act, it doesn't sound like they are off to a good start. It should not have been difficult to have their bag of footballs under constant surveillance with CCTV cameras to leave no shadow of a doubt what went on. Maybe they have that footage, maybe they don't. But it sounds like the league suspected malfeasance and foul play from the get go. If law enforcement suspected a bank was going to be robbed, they might want to stake out the bank.

 

[MG345]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

They were correctly inflated at halftime.

They all would have been filled at the same time, essentially. The 12 balls that were used in the second half were the back up balls, out of the pool of the original 24 that the Patriots could use.

Even if they were inflated at half time, what about the Colts balls which remained at the level (or not significantly below) that they were checked? Those were not inflated at halftime.

The colts balls were filled in cold weather, hence no deflation. And none of them were gronked, which also causes deflation.

Link?

 

[MG345]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

This has now turned into the Josh Gordon thread where each side plays defense attorney and argues their side. Nothing we say here matters - we'll find out soon enough.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Forgive me for not following along here, but what exactly does it matter if people can tell the difference between 2 psi or not?

 

[BroadwayG]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

They were correctly inflated at halftime.

They all would have been filled at the same time, essentially. The 12 balls that were used in the second half were the back up balls, out of the pool of the original 24 that the Patriots could use.

Even if they were inflated at half time, what about the Colts balls which remained at the level (or not significantly below) that they were checked? Those were not inflated at halftime.

The colts balls were filled in cold weather, hence no deflation. And none of them were gronked, which also causes deflation.

Link?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2335779-rob-gronkowski-claims-gronk-spikes-were-cause-of-deflated-footballs

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

Love how you didn't include ALL the former NFL coaches/players who've said it's no big deal. Nice cherry picking.

I didn't cherry pick anything. All of what I included was in one article. There wasn't anything in the article saying it wasn't a big deal. Read it yourself, wiseass.

Poor research on your part then. There's been plenty of people who've came out and said its no big deal.

Poor research? I wasn't researching anything. I was reading news articles, and that one was listed with others. I thought it was relevant to this thread so I posted it. Did you read the article, because it is more about these people saying they don't believe Tom Brady than saying it is a big deal. Personally, I don't believe Brady either. He would immediately know the difference in the feel of the ball. Do I think it is a big deal? I think it is par for the course with the Patriots.

Brady has a wet ball for 3 seconds at a time with a 300lb lineman coming his way on every play. You seriously think he has time to think about whether the ball is underinflated by 2 PSI?? lol. We've got some winners here.

How were the Colts able to tell the difference once they got a hold of it? You think they used a pressure meter on a whim?

Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/22/globe-reporter-billy-baker-tackles-deflategate/hNgvlTTTOvU4Dz6I3eluBL/story.html

A bunch of desk nerds can't tell the difference (mostly)? That's your argument?

Dude said "Anyone saying you can't tell if a ball is over or under inflated in one grip/throw is delusional or has never held a football."

I'm pretty sure most everybody in that piece fall into the second category.

 

[mbuehner]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

You do not know that. The ball was in range at half time. if it was filled to the top of the spectrum it could have dropped 1psi and still be in range. There is no data on what it started at or ended at.

 

[RUSF18]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

READ THE SECOND SENTENCE. THIS WASNT IN REGARD TO THIS SPECIFIC GAME.

I'm asking this legitimately, because I honestly have no clue (and it's probably a very dumb question, forgive me)...but in your example, is it assumed that the actual temperature of the ball are at those readings, or is it taking into account that the air inside the ball would be at a different temperature than what the reading is for the room? Meaning, just because its sitting in a room measuring 68 degrees, it doesn't necessarily mean the ball measures 68 degrees unless its been sitting in that room for many hours and the temperature remained stable, right?

 

[mbuehner]

Forgive me for not following along here, but what exactly does it matter if people can tell the difference between 2 psi or not?

Guys who are so familiar with the feel of a football they are positive the difference intuitively obvious and they somehow know what 2psi means in terms of football inflation.

 

[stbugs]

It's kind of cute how the Pats fans are going all courtroom on this ####. The NFL doesn't have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt like a damn murder trial.

well its pretty obvious this isnt a court of law seeing how many people have the pats guilty and punished already without a trace of evidence they did anything wrong

The balls were below NFL rules. Thats a fact.

An NFL "crime" was committed.

The standards to prove this aren't the same as a court of law. The only issue now is finding out WHO exactly is responsible. If they cant specifically pin this on Tom Brady(which i doubt they will, unless they don't pay the ball boy enough to keep his mouth shut) they will punish the team as a whole. Draft picks and a monetary fine. $250,000 is my guess a repeat offender.

Every football game where a ball started out inflated at 12.5psi at 68d, played outside at a temperature under 68d F will be in violation of the rules, as the pressure will drop below 12.5psi.

That's why they have a range and require them to be filled to a certain level. That way taking into account weather changes, which have a minimal effect on the actual PSI, doesn't effect the balance and feel of the ball. Maybe they know that if a ball falls to 12 PSI it doesn't effect the shape of the ball, but anything 11.5 and below does. So they set the limit at 12.5 knowing even if it's 10 degrees outside that it would only fall to the "safe" range.

Given the amount of time and money the NFL is spending on the investigation I think it's safe to rule out the weather as the cause.

LOL, seriously? The NFL is taking this seriously because of all the media reports. That have to do their due diligence. Remember Ray Rice? They seemed to step things up after the video came about, not before. The NFL is in complete CYA at this point to make sure they look OK. If it weren't for the media attention due to the SuperBowl, the penalty might have been tiny, now it won't be.

Also, weather is a cause of deflation. Take a ball from indoors being measured in spec, it will deflate. Oh, I know the Colts balls didn't. They could have tried to keep them warmer (happened in Carolina vs. Minny this year) or they put them at 13.5 to start knowing they would get re-measured. Maybe they tampered with them to make sure they were inflated for the halftime measurement. The temperature will 100% cause deflation. Any balls measured inside at 12.5 will be below spec in the first half outside. The question is if weather was an entire cause. That said, we don't have the numbers. In spec is a 1 PSI range.

 

[Run It Up]

-12 balls underinflated
-Kravitz gets a call from an unnamed source that the Pats used tampered with balls
-Kravitz says D'qwell Jackson discovered the fault
-D'qwell denies that
-report from unnamed source claims that the Colts knew ahead of time
-Kravitz claims that he received another report from the same source that Baltimore warned the Colts
-NFL contacts Harbaww, has no idea what anyone is talking
-Kravitz claims without a source that the K-balls in the NE/BAL game were tampered with

So at the moment, something prompted the refs to investigate the balls at half time. Thats all we actually know.

 

[Bucky86]

Forgive me for not following along here, but what exactly does it matter if people can tell the difference between 2 psi or not?

Because some people don't want their precious Tom Brady's reputation hurt in any way.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

You do not know that. The ball was in range at half time. if it was filled to the top of the spectrum it could have dropped 1psi and still be in range. There is no data on what it started at or ended at.

Even if it dropped 1 psi from the absolute max to the absolute minimum (which would be an amazing coincidence) you'd still have to explain why the Pats' balls dropped more than twice that.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

A bunch of desk nerds can't tell the difference (mostly)? That's your argument?

Try gripping a ball and throwing it (assuming you can grip one and throw it). It's a marked difference.

The part of the statement that should concern the Patriots is: "Our investigation will seek information from any and all relevant sources and we expect full cooperation from other clubs as well."

If they can show proof that the Pats have been altering footballs as a regular practice over an extended time, that puts things at a whole other level and the league would have much more recourse to fry the Pats.

I will say if the league's master plan was to catch them in the act, it doesn't sound like they are off to a good start. It should not have been difficult to have their bag of footballs under constant surveillance with CCTV cameras to leave no shadow of a doubt what went on. Maybe they have that footage, maybe they don't. But it sounds like the league suspected malfeasance and foul play from the get go. If law enforcement suspected a bank was going to be robbed, they might want to stake out the bank.

I was wondering if this doesn't all go back to the Ravens. [SIZE=14.2857141494751px]Would be hysterical if Baltimore (or the Colts) had something on film.[/SIZE]

There were rumors that a) the Ravens tipped the Colts off and b) the Colts tipped the refs off before the game.

"You want to split hairs and take advantage of loopholes in the rules and then get all preachy about it? I got yer rules right here."

 

[mbuehner]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

READ THE SECOND SENTENCE. THIS WASNT IN REGARD TO THIS SPECIFIC GAME.

I'm asking this legitimately, because I honestly have no clue (and it's probably a very dumb question, forgive me)...but in your example, is it assumed that the actual temperature of the ball are at those readings, or is it taking into account that the air inside the ball would be at a different temperature than what the reading is for the room? Meaning, just because its sitting in a room measuring 68 degrees, it doesn't necessarily mean the ball measures 68 degrees unless its been sitting in that room for many hours and the temperature remained stable, right?

Good question- in the example the air in the ball is 68dF. Its irrelevant what the temp of the air on the measurement room is, although the barometric pressure in the room would matter if it was significantly different then where the 2nd measurement was taken.

 

[the moops]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

I haven't seen any information about what the before and after PSI were for any of the balls. Is that info out there?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It should not have been difficult to have their bag of footballs under constant surveillance with CCTV cameras to leave no shadow of a doubt what went on. Maybe they have that footage, maybe they don't. But it sounds like the league suspected malfeasance and foul play from the get go. If law enforcement suspected a bank was going to be robbed, they might want to stake out the bank.

From the NFL statement:

We have obtained and are continuing to obtain additional information, including video and other electronic information and physical evidence. We have retained Renaissance Associates, an investigatory firm with sophisticated forensic expertise to assist in reviewing electronic and video information.

So maybe there is some kind of footage to review?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

You do not know that. The ball was in range at half time. if it was filled to the top of the spectrum it could have dropped 1psi and still be in range. There is no data on what it started at or ended at.

Good god. All the balls were fine at the end of the game after being reflated during halftime.

 

[mbuehner]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

You do not know that. The ball was in range at half time. if it was filled to the top of the spectrum it could have dropped 1psi and still be in range. There is no data on what it started at or ended at.

Even if it dropped 1 psi from the absolute max to the absolute minimum (which would be an amazing coincidence) you'd still have to explain why the Pats' balls dropped more than twice that.

Totally agree. But the point is you cant claim the the other balls didnt change at all.

 

[the moops]

It should not have been difficult to have their bag of footballs under constant surveillance with CCTV cameras to leave no shadow of a doubt what went on. Maybe they have that footage, maybe they don't. But it sounds like the league suspected malfeasance and foul play from the get go. If law enforcement suspected a bank was going to be robbed, they might want to stake out the bank.

From the NFL statement:

We have obtained and are continuing to obtain additional information, including video and other electronic information and physical evidence. We have retained Renaissance Associates, an investigatory firm with sophisticated forensic expertise to assist in reviewing electronic and video information.

So maybe there is some kind of footage to review?

You mean like video from the 4000 cameras in the stadium?

 

[mbuehner]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

You do not know that. The ball was in range at half time. if it was filled to the top of the spectrum it could have dropped 1psi and still be in range. There is no data on what it started at or ended at.

Good god. All the balls were fine at the end of the game after being reflated during halftime.

Were they reinflated inside or outside?

 

[the moops]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

You do not know that. The ball was in range at half time. if it was filled to the top of the spectrum it could have dropped 1psi and still be in range. There is no data on what it started at or ended at.

Good god. All the balls were fine at the end of the game after being reflated during halftime.

If the ####### nfl would just release the numbers it would clear a lot of the #### up. jesus

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It should not have been difficult to have their bag of footballs under constant surveillance with CCTV cameras to leave no shadow of a doubt what went on. Maybe they have that footage, maybe they don't. But it sounds like the league suspected malfeasance and foul play from the get go. If law enforcement suspected a bank was going to be robbed, they might want to stake out the bank.

From the NFL statement:

We have obtained and are continuing to obtain additional information, including video and other electronic information and physical evidence. We have retained Renaissance Associates, an investigatory firm with sophisticated forensic expertise to assist in reviewing electronic and video information.

So maybe there is some kind of footage to review?

You mean like video from the 4000 cameras in the stadium?

Yes.

 

[moleculo]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

The only way the Colts balls didn't see a deflation is if there wasn't any. No deflation means they did not see a temperature drop. It's basic physics, people, you can't really work around this.

The reason the Colts balls did not see a temperature drop is because they were checked at halftime at the same temperature they were checked at pre-game - i.e. in the warmth and comfort of the officials locker room.

Therefore, we can surmise that the temperature differential played no role in any loss of pressure, Colts balls or Patriots balls.

Which leaves open the question - what happened to the 2 PSI in the patriots balls?

 

[Flying Elvis]

The part of the statement that should concern the Patriots is: "Our investigation will seek information from any and all relevant sources and we expect full cooperation from other clubs as well."

If they can show proof that the Pats have been altering footballs as a regular practice over an extended time, that puts things at a whole other level and the league would have much more recourse to fry the Pats.

I will say if the league's master plan was to catch them in the act, it doesn't sound like they are off to a good start. It should not have been difficult to have their bag of footballs under constant surveillance with CCTV cameras to leave no shadow of a doubt what went on. Maybe they have that footage, maybe they don't. But it sounds like the league suspected malfeasance and foul play from the get go. If law enforcement suspected a bank was going to be robbed, they might want to stake out the bank.

This is NFL HQ, where even a foolproof plan is carried out by fools too hearty to be proofed against. It is, quite literally, beginning to look like the NFL front office is doing their best impersonation of the keystone cops. Again.

There is enough info in the rumor mill to suggest it was, in essence, a sting. Yet they still gaffed it COMPLETELY. We'll see, indeed.

 

[RUSF18]

Ok, about a 2PSI difference being noticeable

- please note im NOT saying the weather caused the Patriots ball to deflate- im proving that 2psi pressure changes happen ALL THE TIME in the NFL and nobody notices or remarks on it.

A ball is filled in a 68d F room to a pressure of 13.0psi. It is taken outside and adjusts to a temperature of 30d F.

The pressure will now read 11psi, 2psi less.

This happens all the time in the NFL.

Then what about the Colts balls. What about the other 12 balls that were used by the Pats and found to be fine after the game?

READ THE SECOND SENTENCE. THIS WASNT IN REGARD TO THIS SPECIFIC GAME.

I'm asking this legitimately, because I honestly have no clue (and it's probably a very dumb question, forgive me)...but in your example, is it assumed that the actual temperature of the ball are at those readings, or is it taking into account that the air inside the ball would be at a different temperature than what the reading is for the room? Meaning, just because its sitting in a room measuring 68 degrees, it doesn't necessarily mean the ball measures 68 degrees unless its been sitting in that room for many hours and the temperature remained stable, right?

Good question- in the example the air in the ball is 68dF. Its irrelevant what the temp of the air on the measurement room is, although the barometric pressure in the room would matter if it was significantly different then where the 2nd measurement was taken.

Thanks. I guess my follow up then would be, what sort of conditions would you need to be in to get the temperature inside the ball to drop from 68 to 30 (or whatever) while that air is being insulated by thick pigskin?

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

The part of the statement that should concern the Patriots is: "Our investigation will seek information from any and all relevant sources and we expect full cooperation from other clubs as well."

If they can show proof that the Pats have been altering footballs as a regular practice over an extended time, that puts things at a whole other level and the league would have much more recourse to fry the Pats.

I will say if the league's master plan was to catch them in the act, it doesn't sound like they are off to a good start. It should not have been difficult to have their bag of footballs under constant surveillance with CCTV cameras to leave no shadow of a doubt what went on. Maybe they have that footage, maybe they don't. But it sounds like the league suspected malfeasance and foul play from the get go. If law enforcement suspected a bank was going to be robbed, they might want to stake out the bank.

I took the bolded to mean they would look to reach out to other clubs to find out if they might play around with the air pressure as well, I mean you have a QB in the other conference game on record talking about trying to get away with going over the limit.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Forgive me for not following along here, but what exactly does it matter if people can tell the difference between 2 psi or not?

Guys who are so familiar with the feel of a football they are positive the difference intuitively obvious and they somehow know what 2psi means in terms of football inflation.

Why does it matter? The balls were deflated by someone- there's no other explanation for the drop. Therefore the only possible explanations (setting aside the "NFL is lying about testing them" conspiracy theory nutjobs) are (1) a ballboy went over the head of Tom Brady and messed with the balls on his own accord (ridiculous- everyone agrees that QBs are meticulous about the balls that are put into play, it strains credibility to imagine a ballboy doing this) or (2) Brady/the Pats cheated.

Whether the end result of that cheating is detectable to the Boston Globe newsroom or Joe Theismann is 100% irrelevant. Cheating is cheating.

 

[karmarooster]

This thread, and all the media hoopla is focused on one game.

What if there was cold, hard data with statistical analysis that proved the Patriots had a statistically abnormal fumble rate for every season going back to 2007? Such that the chance of it randomly occurring was less than 0.001%?

What if their fumble rate was such an outlier as to suggest that this was a long running scheme?

Find it here:

[SIZE=10pt]http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=293[/SIZE]

“Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”. Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.”

Yesterday I investigated whether or not the New England Patriots outperform expectations in bad weather. I had several recommendations to look at home and road data, as opposed to just home data. Mulling whether or not to undertake that further (time consuming) analysis, I watched this video:


I immediately noticed something that cannot be overlooked: the issue with ball security and fumbles. Then I remembered this remarkable fact:

The 2014 Patriots were just the 3rd team in the last 25 years to never have lost a fumble at home! The biggest difference between the Patriots and the other 2 teams who did it was that New England ran between 150 and 200 MORE plays this year than those teams did in the years they had zero home fumbles, making the Patriots stand alone in this unique statistic.

Based on the desire to incorporate full season data (not just home games, as a team theoretically bring “doctored footballs” with them on the road) I performed the following analysis:

I looked at the last 5 years of data (since 2010) and examined TOTAL FUMBLES in all games (as well as fumbles/game) but more importantly, TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS RUN. Thus, we can to determine average PLAYS per FUMBLE, a much more valuable statistic. The results are displayed in the chart below. Keep in mind, this is for all games since 2010, regardless of indoors, outdoors, weather, site, etc. EVERYTHING.

(click to enlarge)

One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

I spoke with a data scientist who I know from work on the NFLproject.com website, and sent him the data. He said:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”.
Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.
I actually went back and researched 5 year periods for the entire NFL over the last 25 years. The Patriots ratio of 187 plays to 1 fumble is the BEST of ANY team in the NFL for ANY 5 year span of time over the last 25 years. Not was it just the best, it wasn’t close:

1. 2010-2014 Patriots: 187 plays/fumble
2. 2009-2013 Patriots: 156 plays/fumble
3. 2006-2010 Colts: 156 plays/fumble
4. 2005-2009 Colts: 153 plays/fumble
5. 2007-2011 Patriots: 149 plays/fumble
6. 2008-2012 Patriots: 148 plays/fumble
7. 2010-2014 Texans: 140 plays/fumble
8. 2004-2008 Colts: 139 plays/fumble
9. 2006-2010 Jets: 135 plays/fumble
10. 1999-2003 Chiefs: 134 plays/fumble

There are a few key takeaways. First and foremost, the 187 plays/fumble dwarfs even the rest of the best seasons the last 25 years. Second, the Patriots have been at the top of the NFL since 2007.

Ironically, as my study yesterday showed, the Patriots performance in wet weather home games mysteriously turned ridiculous starting in 2007. In 2006, they went 0-2. From 2007 onward, they went 14-1.

The next obvious question becomes, where were the Patriots in this statistic pre-2007? Take a look:

(click to enlarge)

As you can see, the Patriots won their Super Bowls having a below average rate of fumbles lost given today’s average of 105 plays/game. But in 2007, something happened to propel them to a much better rate (you’ll remember, that just so happened to be the same year they went 16-0 in the regular season). But even looking at these numbers, its clear how insane the 187 number is: they are almost running 100 MORE plays without a single fumble as compared to the 2002-2006 period when they won 2 of their 3 Super Bowls.

To further illustrate how these numbers are astonishing, the below graphics lay out clearly how far off the Patriots are from the rest of the league. Its evident to the eye how far removed they are from the norm. Whether we look at a histogram laying it out, where the Patriots and their 187 plays/fumble is far from the “bell shaped curve”:

(click to enlarge)

or the same chart as above, this time displaying color bands as we move away from the 105 plays/fumble average. You can see the darker red band contains all teams but the bottom 3 and the top 3, and that the bottom 3 are very close to the darker red band. Meanwhile, the Patriots are really in a league of their own:

(click to enlarge)

Could the Patriots be so good that they just defy the numbers? As my friend theorized: Perhaps they’ve invented a revolutionary in-house way to protect the ball, or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble. Or perhaps still, they call plays which intentionally result in a lower percentage of fumbles. Or maybe its just that they play with deflated footballs on offense. It could be any combination of the above.

But regardless of what, specifically, is causing these numbers, the fact remains: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

_____________________________________

UPDATE: It was suggested that I look at ALL fumbles, not just fumbles lost. With that said, let’s look there:

First, it should be noted (as the tables above show) that teams playing indoors fumble the ball less frequently. Reasons are many, foremost the ball won’t be wet from precipitation, damp from late night condensation, and a variety of other reasons. Which is why, if you look at the very first chart I posted above, you’ll see the teams who fumble the MOST/play are generally colder weather teams who play outdoors (PHI, DEN, BUF, PIT, WAS, NYG, KC, NYJ). Whereas at the other end of the spectrum, aside from the Patriots in their own world, are HOU, ATL and NO, all dome teams.

The below graphic looks at ALL fumbles over 5 year periods the last 25 years. I planned to cut this off at JUST the top 10 teams, but all we would have seen were the Patriots and dome teams. Top 15 would have accomplished the same. So I had to expand to the top 25 team periods. As you can see, of the top 25 team-periods, 17 are dome teams, including 11 of the top 15. First, let’s look at the chart, then we’ll look at comparisons to average:

(click to enlarge)

As is apparent, the Patriots are the only outdoor NFL team the last 25 years to average 70 plays/fumble or better, and they did it from 2007-2014 (four, five year periods). Its simply uncanny, as the statistics above similarly showed.

Averages:

• Over the last 25 years, indoor teams averaged 43 plays/fumble (in all games they played that season, regardless of site, understanding that half their games would be played indoor sans-weather).
• Since 2000, they improved to 46 plays/fumble.
• Over the last 25 years, outdoor teams averaged 41 plays/fumble.
• Since 2000, they improved to 43 plays/fumble.

The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble the past 5 years, almost 70% better than the 43 plays/fumble that outdoor teams averaged since 2000.

Next, lets look only at the current 5 year period:

The league average plays per fumble from 2010 thru 2014 was 50 plays/fumble.

• For indoor teams, the average was 55 plays/fumble.
• For outdoor teams, excluding the Patriots, the average was 46 plays/fumble (9 fewer).

The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble, almost 60% MORE than outdoor teams, and almost 50% MORE than the league average the past 5 years.

(click to enlarge)

Since we now can clearly in the data, both near term and long term, that dome-based teams (who play at least 8 games out of the elements) have an advantage in the fumble department, we can exclude them from comparisons to the Patriots.

If we do, I can produce a chart identical to the one at the very top which looked ONLY at fumbles lost. This one looks at ALL fumbles, whether lost or recovered. I think the point still remains:

(click to enlarge)

If this chart looks nearly identical, it should. The Patriots are so “off the map” when it comes to either fumbles or only fumbles lost. As mentioned earlier: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

 

[mbuehner]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

The only way the Colts balls didn't see a deflation is if there wasn't any. No deflation means they did not see a temperature drop. It's basic physics, people, you can't really work around this.

The reason the Colts balls did not see a temperature drop is because they were checked at halftime at the same temperature they were checked at pre-game - i.e. in the warmth and comfort of the officials locker room.

Therefore, we can surmise that the temperature differential played no role in any loss of pressure, Colts balls or Patriots balls.

Which leaves open the question - what happened to the 2 PSI in the patriots balls?

You're assuming-

- There was NO deflation of Colts balls, hence they were measured pregame, recorded, measured again, compared, and didnt change. Is there evidence of this?

- That the air inside a leather ball can warm up to room temperature during a part of a half time.

- That the Colts balls were filled indoors, and measured indoors.

- That the re-measurement took place indoors.

Is there any evidence of any of these either way?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Forgive me for not following along here, but what exactly does it matter if people can tell the difference between 2 psi or not?

Guys who are so familiar with the feel of a football they are positive the difference intuitively obvious and they somehow know what 2psi means in terms of football inflation.

Why does it matter? The balls were deflated by someone- there's no other explanation for the drop. Therefore the only possible explanations (setting aside the "NFL is lying about testing them" conspiracy theory nutjobs) are (1) a ballboy went over the head of Tom Brady and messed with the balls on his own accord (ridiculous- everyone agrees that QBs are meticulous about the balls that are put into play, it strains credibility to imagine a ballboy doing this) or (2) Brady/the Pats cheated.

Whether the end result of that cheating is detectable to the Boston Globe newsroom or Joe Theismann is 100% irrelevant. Cheating is cheating.

I think that "debate" is solely about whether Brady was lying when he said he didn't notice anything - which as you say is really irrelevant because the report will in essence tell us if Brady was lying or not.

 

[RUSF18]

Colts balls were at 14 PSI. Close enough to the 13.5 that the officials didn't care. Pats balls were at 12 PSI. Close enough that officials didn't care.

All balls lose 1.5 PSI due to conditions. Colts balls are at 12.5, and deemed within the acceptable range. Pats balls are down to 10.5 PSI, which is the 2 PSI difference from acceptable.

I'm just making #### up obviously.

That's not what happened though, there was no significant loss of PSI on the Colts' balls. If all the balls PSI dropped an even amount, this wouldn't be an issue. Hell, the 12 balls from NE didn't deflate at a common rate so that even points further to tampering.

The only way the Colts balls didn't see a deflation is if there wasn't any. No deflation means they did not see a temperature drop. It's basic physics, people, you can't really work around this.

The reason the Colts balls did not see a temperature drop is because they were checked at halftime at the same temperature they were checked at pre-game - i.e. in the warmth and comfort of the officials locker room.

Therefore, we can surmise that the temperature differential played no role in any loss of pressure, Colts balls or Patriots balls.

Which leaves open the question - what happened to the 2 PSI in the patriots balls?

That's not even really true though. They might have been checked inside at halftime, but that was after being outside in the cold for probably two hours. If you bring those balls inside, the air temperature inside doesn't immediately return to whatever it would previously have measure, right?

 

[parrot]

This thread, and all the media hoopla is focused on one game.

What if there was cold, hard data with statistical analysis that proved the Patriots had a statistically abnormal fumble rate for every season going back to 2007? Such that the chance of it randomly occurring was less than 0.001%?

What if their fumble rate was such an outlier as to suggest that this was a long running scheme?

Find it here:

[SIZE=10pt]http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=293[/SIZE]

“Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”. Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.”

Yesterday I investigated whether or not the New England Patriots outperform expectations in bad weather. I had several recommendations to look at home and road data, as opposed to just home data. Mulling whether or not to undertake that further (time consuming) analysis, I watched this video:


I immediately noticed something that cannot be overlooked: the issue with ball security and fumbles. Then I remembered this remarkable fact:

The 2014 Patriots were just the 3rd team in the last 25 years to never have lost a fumble at home! The biggest difference between the Patriots and the other 2 teams who did it was that New England ran between 150 and 200 MORE plays this year than those teams did in the years they had zero home fumbles, making the Patriots stand alone in this unique statistic.

Based on the desire to incorporate full season data (not just home games, as a team theoretically bring “doctored footballs” with them on the road) I performed the following analysis:

I looked at the last 5 years of data (since 2010) and examined TOTAL FUMBLES in all games (as well as fumbles/game) but more importantly, TOTAL OFFENSIVE PLAYS RUN. Thus, we can to determine average PLAYS per FUMBLE, a much more valuable statistic. The results are displayed in the chart below. Keep in mind, this is for all games since 2010, regardless of indoors, outdoors, weather, site, etc. EVERYTHING.

(click to enlarge)

One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

I spoke with a data scientist who I know from work on the NFLproject.com website, and sent him the data. He said:

I actually went back and researched 5 year periods for the entire NFL over the last 25 years. The Patriots ratio of 187 plays to 1 fumble is the BEST of ANY team in the NFL for ANY 5 year span of time over the last 25 years. Not was it just the best, it wasn’t close:

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.

1. 2010-2014 Patriots: 187 plays/fumble
2. 2009-2013 Patriots: 156 plays/fumble
3. 2006-2010 Colts: 156 plays/fumble
4. 2005-2009 Colts: 153 plays/fumble
5. 2007-2011 Patriots: 149 plays/fumble
6. 2008-2012 Patriots: 148 plays/fumble
7. 2010-2014 Texans: 140 plays/fumble
8. 2004-2008 Colts: 139 plays/fumble
9. 2006-2010 Jets: 135 plays/fumble
10. 1999-2003 Chiefs: 134 plays/fumble

There are a few key takeaways. First and foremost, the 187 plays/fumble dwarfs even the rest of the best seasons the last 25 years. Second, the Patriots have been at the top of the NFL since 2007.

Ironically, as my study yesterday showed, the Patriots performance in wet weather home games mysteriously turned ridiculous starting in 2007. In 2006, they went 0-2. From 2007 onward, they went 14-1.

The next obvious question becomes, where were the Patriots in this statistic pre-2007? Take a look:

(click to enlarge)

As you can see, the Patriots won their Super Bowls having a below average rate of fumbles lost given today’s average of 105 plays/game. But in 2007, something happened to propel them to a much better rate (you’ll remember, that just so happened to be the same year they went 16-0 in the regular season). But even looking at these numbers, its clear how insane the 187 number is: they are almost running 100 MORE plays without a single fumble as compared to the 2002-2006 period when they won 2 of their 3 Super Bowls.

To further illustrate how these numbers are astonishing, the below graphics lay out clearly how far off the Patriots are from the rest of the league. Its evident to the eye how far removed they are from the norm. Whether we look at a histogram laying it out, where the Patriots and their 187 plays/fumble is far from the “bell shaped curve”:

(click to enlarge)

or the same chart as above, this time displaying color bands as we move away from the 105 plays/fumble average. You can see the darker red band contains all teams but the bottom 3 and the top 3, and that the bottom 3 are very close to the darker red band. Meanwhile, the Patriots are really in a league of their own:

(click to enlarge)

Could the Patriots be so good that they just defy the numbers? As my friend theorized: Perhaps they’ve invented a revolutionary in-house way to protect the ball, or perhaps they’ve intentionally stocked their skill positions with players who don’t have a propensity to fumble. Or perhaps still, they call plays which intentionally result in a lower percentage of fumbles. Or maybe its just that they play with deflated footballs on offense. It could be any combination of the above.

But regardless of what, specifically, is causing these numbers, the fact remains: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

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UPDATE: It was suggested that I look at ALL fumbles, not just fumbles lost. With that said, let’s look there:

First, it should be noted (as the tables above show) that teams playing indoors fumble the ball less frequently. Reasons are many, foremost the ball won’t be wet from precipitation, damp from late night condensation, and a variety of other reasons. Which is why, if you look at the very first chart I posted above, you’ll see the teams who fumble the MOST/play are generally colder weather teams who play outdoors (PHI, DEN, BUF, PIT, WAS, NYG, KC, NYJ). Whereas at the other end of the spectrum, aside from the Patriots in their own world, are HOU, ATL and NO, all dome teams.

The below graphic looks at ALL fumbles over 5 year periods the last 25 years. I planned to cut this off at JUST the top 10 teams, but all we would have seen were the Patriots and dome teams. Top 15 would have accomplished the same. So I had to expand to the top 25 team periods. As you can see, of the top 25 team-periods, 17 are dome teams, including 11 of the top 15. First, let’s look at the chart, then we’ll look at comparisons to average:

(click to enlarge)

As is apparent, the Patriots are the only outdoor NFL team the last 25 years to average 70 plays/fumble or better, and they did it from 2007-2014 (four, five year periods). Its simply uncanny, as the statistics above similarly showed.

Averages:

• Over the last 25 years, indoor teams averaged 43 plays/fumble (in all games they played that season, regardless of site, understanding that half their games would be played indoor sans-weather).
• Since 2000, they improved to 46 plays/fumble.
• Over the last 25 years, outdoor teams averaged 41 plays/fumble.
• Since 2000, they improved to 43 plays/fumble.

The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble the past 5 years, almost 70% better than the 43 plays/fumble that outdoor teams averaged since 2000.

Next, lets look only at the current 5 year period:

The league average plays per fumble from 2010 thru 2014 was 50 plays/fumble.

• For indoor teams, the average was 55 plays/fumble.
• For outdoor teams, excluding the Patriots, the average was 46 plays/fumble (9 fewer).

The Patriots averaged 73 plays/fumble, almost 60% MORE than outdoor teams, and almost 50% MORE than the league average the past 5 years.

(click to enlarge)

Since we now can clearly in the data, both near term and long term, that dome-based teams (who play at least 8 games out of the elements) have an advantage in the fumble department, we can exclude them from comparisons to the Patriots.

If we do, I can produce a chart identical to the one at the very top which looked ONLY at fumbles lost. This one looks at ALL fumbles, whether lost or recovered. I think the point still remains:

(click to enlarge)

If this chart looks nearly identical, it should. The Patriots are so “off the map” when it comes to either fumbles or only fumbles lost. As mentioned earlier: this is an extremely abnormal occurrence and is NOT simply random fluctuation.

Maybe the 3rd time this will take.

 

[karmarooster]

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