Patriots being investigated after Colts game (4 Viewers)

[12punch]

There's a 'broken windows theory' aspect to this no one is discussing (if a building has a broken window--and a jungle lawn, and peeling paint, etc.--and that window isn't fixed within a given time, it's basically a certainty that soon all the windows will be broken. The broken window sends a signal that nobody cares about this building, so people feel free to vandalize when they otherwise wouldn't).

In this case, the Wells report makes it exceedingly obvious that the NFL didn't give a hoot about testing and securing the balls before games. A hyper-competitive guy like Brady sees that, wants his balls how he wants them, and decides to take matters into his own hands.

Doesn't make it okay: he probably deserves the $25,000 fine such an infraction supposedly warrants as stated by the Wells report.

OK...so then why lie about it and then obstruct the investigation? Round and round we go....

how do we know he lied about it?

cuz he's guilty

how do we know he's guilty?

cuz he lied about it

shark pool be sharkin'

btw, if you actually want an answer to your obstruction nonsense you can find it here

 

[12punch]

Apparently, this is Brady's appeal letter

Somebody read it and tell me if I should read it

https://nflpaweb.blob.core.windows.net/media/Default/PDFs/Media%20Resources/Brady_Appeal_Letter.pdf

I can tell you, you don't need to read it, because even if he admitted to doing it, you still would say he didn't or had a VERY good reason for doing it and shouldn't be penalized.I'm convinced you're related to someone on that team.

well, it was really more a question of the length than content

turns out it wasn't as long as I was afraid it would be

and the footnote was pretty funny

 

[ChuckLiddell]

There's a 'broken windows theory' aspect to this no one is discussing (if a building has a broken window--and a jungle lawn, and peeling paint, etc.--and that window isn't fixed within a given time, it's basically a certainty that soon all the windows will be broken. The broken window sends a signal that nobody cares about this building, so people feel free to vandalize when they otherwise wouldn't).

In this case, the Wells report makes it exceedingly obvious that the NFL didn't give a hoot about testing and securing the balls before games. A hyper-competitive guy like Brady sees that, wants his balls how he wants them, and decides to take matters into his own hands.

Doesn't make it okay: he probably deserves the $25,000 fine such an infraction supposedly warrants as stated by the Wells report.

OK...so then why lie about it and then obstruct the investigation? Round and round we go....

how do we know he lied about it?

cuz he's guilty

how do we know he's guilty?

cuz he lied about it

shark pool be sharkin'

btw, if you actually want an answer to your obstruction nonsense you can find it here

Yeah, you are right. Its probably all nonsense and everyone just hates the Patriots. That makes so much more sense. Its only a multi billion dollar industry, so personal feelings are likely the most important factor in major decisions for the business. If it were a multi trillion dollar business, maybe they would actually care about facts.

12Punch be Punchin'...himself in the deflated balls.

 

[skinsrule05]

The Broncos front office suspended the video guy, immediately upon learning of the illegal taping. They also reported to the NFL office, and McDaniels inaction was why he was fired.

There was no cover-up, there was no proclamation of innocence. The Broncos staff acted swiftly to punish the guilty, before the NFL had to launch their own investigation.

If you want to say the punishment was different, that's fine but you have to acknowledge the two teams behaved differently.

This is exactly right. The patriots harsh punishment, spy gate and deflategate, isn't for the seriousness of the infraction. It is because they never come forward and admitted wrong doing. They deflect and deny. If Brady would have admitted to it right from the beginning this would have been done months ago.

 

[12punch]

What I am struggling to see from the Pats side is why would Goodell want to hurt his product by suspending Brady (one of the most popular guys in the NFL) and getting into a war with Kraft one of the most powerful owners in the NFL unless what he thought they did was deserved of such a harsh punishment.

You think Goodell wanted this to become a giant mess? Blaming Goodell for this mess is ludicrous. Once again it is failing to acknowledge that your team, and players made the mistake in the first place. I am guessing he did not want this to be drawn out in the media. The Pats have created smoke yet again and we all know where there is smoke there is usually fire.

Trying to blame Goodell for his is down right laughable and quite frankly ignorant.

I think it went something like this:- Patriots break out the eligible/ineligible play against the Ravens

- Harbaugh is pissed and says they basically cheated

- Brady says it was legal and Harbaugh should read the rulebook

- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call

- the Colts say hey, not a bad idea, let's send a letter to the league and get in their head a little

- Kensil sees that letter and forwards it around to people, and individually oversees a shoddy investigation

- the refs have little to no idea what's going on because kensil doesn't want the pats to be warned in advance

- at this point, Goodell doesn't know what's going on, either

- at halftime, they start measuring, and sure enough the Patriot balks are deflated

- then they start testing the Colts balls, and sure enough several of them are delayed, too.

- they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show

- the balls are reinflated, the rest of the game plays out, and nobody knows what happened

- then someone (kensil?) leaks this investigation to the indy newspapers

- with a depressed fanbase, these allegations look like red meat - but then it bows up into a massive superbowl week story.

- leak after leak comes out from unnamed league sources, many completely false, including stories about measurements much worse than any that were actually taken

- Goodell says there will be an investigation, but can't put the toothpaste back in the tube

- Belichick, remembering what happened during spygate when a cameraman standing in the wrong spot turned into false allegations of taping walk throughs and killing babies, holds a press conference to fight this.

- Goodell doesn't respond, because he wants this whole thing to go away. There'll be an investigation.

- kraft is pissed that he's getting left to hang in the wind, and demands an apology if and when the investigation turns up nothing

- the pats win the superbowl with properly inflated balls

- news stories start coming out showing that the pats were probably innocent and that the NFL had botched the whole investigation

- kensil starts taking heat from fans and media who blame him for the leaks

- it becomes clear that a verdict of not guilty would be highly unpopular and make several people in the league look bad, including Goodell

- they hire a hatchet guy to get some good dirt, and he can't find much. The pats cooperate fully

- then they find the dorito dink texts and start hammering the pats with them. Suddenly play time is over and they lawyer up heavily

- the findings come out days before any ruling is made, and the media starts speculating on the punishment

- Goodell lets Vincent dole out the penalty, keeping his hands somewhat clean

- the pats, who still believe they've done nothing wrong, are incredulous with the harshness of the penalty and vow to fight it

- the media cycle ebbs and flows. First everyone thought the pats were guilty. Then they said the penalty was too harsh. People started to question the process. Some guys, like Albert breer, double down on the leagues side. Others, like Jim and pat on NFL radio, question the league more.

I don't think Goodell singlehandedly ordered a take down of the pats. I agree that this isn't what he wanted. There were a lot of moving parts here. I do think the penalty is too harsh but I'm not on here advancing a narrative that Goodell is to blame for this whole thing, so criticizing me for that is just putting words in my mouth.

I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage. But I also think they inflated the balls to close to 12.5 and told the refs to pump them up to 12.5 when they have them over. I don't think they had enough time to use a needle to manually deflate them in the men's room after I don't think the readings show that they were deflated by enough to suggest that any manual deflation had to have happened. And if that's the case, then they certainly weren't deflated enough for the pats to have risked manually deflating the balls game in, game out - by like .3 psi? when the balks were going to deflate naturally by close to 2psi by halftime?

It seems a lot easier to believe that the readings used by the official, who said he measured the balls at 12.5, on the gauge the official said he used, which would naturally have led to the measurements that they saw at halftime... than it is to believe the wells report, that the ref was wrong about which gauge he used, that they stopped measuring the Colts balls because they suddenly understood the ideal gas law after measuring 16 balls, that someone manually deflated 12 balls at halftime in a minute forty flat, and all the things necessary to believe the deflation narrative. I'm not even saying definitively that the pats never deflated a ball. I just don't believe the supposed evidence that they did it that day. And I think the people who do believe it are generally the ones who haven't looked that deep into it or were previously inclined to believe that the pats were guilty.

this is pretty much exactly what happened

 

[12punch]

.12Punch be Punchin'...himself in the deflated balls.

 

[12punch]

The Broncos front office suspended the video guy, immediately upon learning of the illegal taping. They also reported to the NFL office, and McDaniels inaction was why he was fired.

There was no cover-up, there was no proclamation of innocence. The Broncos staff acted swiftly to punish the guilty, before the NFL had to launch their own investigation.

If you want to say the punishment was different, that's fine but you have to acknowledge the two teams behaved differently.

This is exactly right. The patriots harsh punishment, spy gate and deflategate, isn't for the seriousness of the infraction. It is because they never come forward and admitted wrong doing. They deflect and deny. If Brady would have admitted to it right from the beginning this would have been done months ago.

ever heard the expression witch hunt?

I heard if they're innocent they sink

 

[General Tso]

The Broncos front office suspended the video guy, immediately upon learning of the illegal taping. They also reported to the NFL office, and McDaniels inaction was why he was fired.

There was no cover-up, there was no proclamation of innocence. The Broncos staff acted swiftly to punish the guilty, before the NFL had to launch their own investigation.

If you want to say the punishment was different, that's fine but you have to acknowledge the two teams behaved differently.

This is exactly right. The patriots harsh punishment, spy gate and deflategate, isn't for the seriousness of the infraction. It is because they never come forward and admitted wrong doing. They deflect and deny. If Brady would have admitted to it right from the beginning this would have been done months ago.

Flat out wrong. You need to brush up on Spygate. The Pays were extremely cooperative and contrite. Overly so in my opinion.

 

[General Tso]

See if you can guess who said this:

The most disturbing thing is the process, the process by which this whole thing was unveiled. The intentions were never made clear from the very beginning. I think coaches and players alike were kind of brought in to talk to the Commissioner and the league under false pretenses, and all of a sudden its just like a media firestorm and evidence and things are getting leaked to the media, things are being reported that are proven to be untrue in a lot of cases. And yet its out there. The perception has been created nationally for fans and all those that love our game that there was something illegal going on here. And thats everything against what we stand for. And thats why we fought so vehemently to prove thats not the case.

Tom Brady? Bill Belichik? Robert Kraft?

No, no and no.

How about Drew Brees, commenting on Bountygate.

 

[amnesiac]

my problem with the readings is that we don't have a historical data set to compare it to.

personally, i think every ball for every game next season should be measured before the game, at halftime, and after the game.

along with temperature and humidity levels for each interval.

then compare the data to the "measurements" from the AFCCG.

if they are outliers, impose the penalties in the 2016 season.

if they fit within the data, throw everything out.

 

[12punch]

For being cited as one of the best coaches ever, I find it alarming that after 3 days he has no idea how the balls lost 16% of their air pressure in 90 minutes despite being controlled by his staff. I always thought of him as being very detailed oriented. It sure seems like a head coach would be able to trace back all the people that would touch the balls AFTER Brady ok'd them.

To me the press conferences were about what I would expect if the franchise has been doing this for a long time. No one in the equipment is going to tinker with game balls outside of Brady's knowledge. Madden, former QBs are all saying this. Even Belichick said this. The balls are set up the way Brady likes them (which appears to be lower than the 12.5 psi mandated low despite him saying he likes them right at the edge of allowed). The statement by Brady that he touches them all and knows how he likes them pregame, but can't tell the difference of the 2-3 psi later in a game situation seems very disingenuous.

Belichick's press conference was to pass the buck to Brady. Brady's presser was just to buy time so he gets to play in the Super Bowl. I have no dog in this race, but it was hard watching Brady say things that look to be outright lies. I do think the legacies of both Belichick and Brady took a big hit this week in everyone but the biggest Patriot fan's eyes.

sounds more like wishful thinking

this is a hot topic right now with The View's demographic but when their careers are up and everybody's at the old man bar arguing over the best whoevers ever nobody will remember or give a crap.

we've all learned a lot more about the ball prep process than we ever imagined we would, this week, but as evidenced by the many accounts, including an aaron rodgers interview, these guys have spent all their careers prepping their balls to whatever standard they think might pass inspection, handing them to the refs, and crossing their fingers.

I doubt monitoring every football's psi is high on belichick's superbowl prep list, however much of a detail freak he's become infamous for being.

stop trolling your own site --- nobody in football gives a crap

you pat fans sure use the troll and hater words a lot. It's a shame your team puts its fans through this, knowing their legacy is under a cloud forever. I know that would bother me a lot., so I can sympathize with Pats fans to some degree. No fan should have to look at their team this way.

“Evidence was also provided that Indianapolis ball boys, in a prior season, had been seen by Jacksonville personnel with ball needles hidden under their long sleeves,”

looking fwd to johnny u's thread of faux outrage

 

[espnespn]

Do you find it likely that the pats submitted balls pre-inspection at 12.9 psi, when they are clear that they inflate to 12.5? And, do you find it likely that the Colts submit at 13.4 psi, while they report 13.0?

Not sure where you are going with this. The Pats balls were gauged at 12.5 pregame, and the Colts were around 13.0. Of course the dimwit ref didn't write them down, so we have to take his word for it.But if you assume the logo gauge was used pregame, which as mentioned is what the ref remembers using "to the best of his recollection", then by comparing to the logo gauge readings at halftime the Pats balls only deflated slightly, in accordance with the Ideal Gas Law.

I'm sorry, like I said I'm traveling and got my numbers mixed up...my overall point remains however.Let's accept the refs statement that the pats balls were all 12.5+/-, and the colts 13.0+/-, pre-inspection. If he used the gauge measuring high as he reccolected, that means the Pats balls were actually 12.1 and the Colts balls were 12.6. Neither the Pats nor the Colts said that is their standard when interviewed by Wells.

That leaves 4 possibilities:

1) the Colts and Patriots both lied WRT their pre-game ball preparation process and they both submit balls almost exactly 0.4 psi lower than they claimed.

2) both the Pats and Colts pressure gauges were almost exactly off by -0.4 psi.

3) the referee misremembered which one of two nearly identical gauges was used.

4) the ref used one gauge to measure Colts balls, another to measure the Pats. I think this is the theory in the Pats context report...I haven't had a chance to break down why they think this is the case.

Exponent/Wells concluded 3 is most likely and I agree.

Like I said earlier -it doesn't clear the pats beyond reasonable doubt but that's not the standard we are looking at here.

Further, per the exponent report, it doesn't matter anyways. Assuming the high gauge for initial measurements would show the Pats are in the clear if and only if all 11 Patriots balls could be gauged twice within 2 minutes of coming indoors. This is especially implausible when you find it took ~4 min just to get the balls to the locker room and set up the measurement process.

I don't think we're on the same page. I am saying that if the logo gauge was used during the pregame inspection, then the pats balls were calibrated to 12.5 on that gauge. And you would then compare the logo gauge readings at halftime and that would give you your true comparison without having to fool around with the numbers. And when you do that, the conclusion to be reached is that it was natural deflation.It's amazing to me that such a fundamental fact in the case is being glossed over or outright ignored by the general public and the media. The ref says that "to the best of his recollection" he used the logo gauge to calibrate the balls pregame. This is a gauge that looks radically different than the other gauge, Not only does it have the logo on it, but more importantly the needle is bent at about a 45 degree angle. If one really wants to b fair about the evidence, one has to concede that it's more likely than not that the ref used the logo gauge pregame. And with that fact the entire case falls apart and there is no deflation.

10 of 12 balls submitted by the pats were within spec and the ref didn't have to adjust pressure. That's the key here - they all weren't adjusted to 12.5, they were already there, as set by the Pats.Also, the case does not fall apart, as Exponent found it doesn't really matter anyways.

Other teams knew the refs didn't normally check the ball PSI very carefully, and would try to sneak out-of-spec balls past the refs:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/20/aaron-rodgers-likes-his-footballs-overinflated/

“‘I like to push the limit to how much air we can put in the football, even go over what they allow you to do and see if the officials take air out of it,'” Simms said Rodgers told them before the game."

Do you honestly think the Patriots never tried to submit balls under 12.5 PSI past the refs? It is more likely they often submit balls slightly under 12.5 PSI, hoping the refs approve them. That'd be the easiest way to get slightly-deflated balls into the game, instead of trying to deflate them post-inspection.

I think it's very possible the Patriots submitted balls under 12.5 PSI in the AFC game, and the refs just didn't check very carefully.

 

[12punch]

my problem with the readings is that we don't have a historical data set to compare it to.

personally, i think every ball for every game next season should be measured before the game, at halftime, and after the game.

along with temperature and humidity levels for each interval.

then compare the data to the "measurements" from the AFCCG.

if they are outliers, impose the penalties in the 2016 season.

if they fit within the data, throw everything out.

no, then remove everybody's first round pick

can you imagine how many pissed off refs will be forced to start gauging every ball now?

 

[amnesiac]

my problem with the readings is that we don't have a historical data set to compare it to.

personally, i think every ball for every game next season should be measured before the game, at halftime, and after the game.

along with temperature and humidity levels for each interval.

then compare the data to the "measurements" from the AFCCG.

if they are outliers, impose the penalties in the 2016 season.

if they fit within the data, throw everything out.

no, then remove everybody's first round pick

can you imagine how many pissed off refs will be forced to start gauging every ball now?

taking everyone's first round pick away would be stupid, and pointless. not sure why you would suggest that. and the refs are damn sure going to have to gauge every ball with a proper guage after this #### show.

 

[12punch]

never heard this dude sound so coherent

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Bostonfred,

You can't seriously think that Goodell put in place this whole thing do you? The witch hunt you posted is crazy.

I can't for the life of me figure out how anyone thinking logically about everything that transpired feel that Goodell is out to get the Patriots. Go back and read what you wrote and tell me how crazy that sounds.

 

[moleculo]

Do you find it likely that the pats submitted balls pre-inspection at 12.9 psi, when they are clear that they inflate to 12.5? And, do you find it likely that the Colts submit at 13.4 psi, while they report 13.0?

Not sure where you are going with this. The Pats balls were gauged at 12.5 pregame, and the Colts were around 13.0. Of course the dimwit ref didn't write them down, so we have to take his word for it.But if you assume the logo gauge was used pregame, which as mentioned is what the ref remembers using "to the best of his recollection", then by comparing to the logo gauge readings at halftime the Pats balls only deflated slightly, in accordance with the Ideal Gas Law.

I'm sorry, like I said I'm traveling and got my numbers mixed up...my overall point remains however.Let's accept the refs statement that the pats balls were all 12.5+/-, and the colts 13.0+/-, pre-inspection. If he used the gauge measuring high as he reccolected, that means the Pats balls were actually 12.1 and the Colts balls were 12.6. Neither the Pats nor the Colts said that is their standard when interviewed by Wells.

That leaves 4 possibilities:

1) the Colts and Patriots both lied WRT their pre-game ball preparation process and they both submit balls almost exactly 0.4 psi lower than they claimed.

2) both the Pats and Colts pressure gauges were almost exactly off by -0.4 psi.

3) the referee misremembered which one of two nearly identical gauges was used.

4) the ref used one gauge to measure Colts balls, another to measure the Pats. I think this is the theory in the Pats context report...I haven't had a chance to break down why they think this is the case.

Exponent/Wells concluded 3 is most likely and I agree.

Like I said earlier -it doesn't clear the pats beyond reasonable doubt but that's not the standard we are looking at here.

Further, per the exponent report, it doesn't matter anyways. Assuming the high gauge for initial measurements would show the Pats are in the clear if and only if all 11 Patriots balls could be gauged twice within 2 minutes of coming indoors. This is especially implausible when you find it took ~4 min just to get the balls to the locker room and set up the measurement process.

I don't think we're on the same page. I am saying that if the logo gauge was used during the pregame inspection, then the pats balls were calibrated to 12.5 on that gauge. And you would then compare the logo gauge readings at halftime and that would give you your true comparison without having to fool around with the numbers. And when you do that, the conclusion to be reached is that it was natural deflation.It's amazing to me that such a fundamental fact in the case is being glossed over or outright ignored by the general public and the media. The ref says that "to the best of his recollection" he used the logo gauge to calibrate the balls pregame. This is a gauge that looks radically different than the other gauge, Not only does it have the logo on it, but more importantly the needle is bent at about a 45 degree angle. If one really wants to b fair about the evidence, one has to concede that it's more likely than not that the ref used the logo gauge pregame. And with that fact the entire case falls apart and there is no deflation.

10 of 12 balls submitted by the pats were within spec and the ref didn't have to adjust pressure. That's the key here - they all weren't adjusted to 12.5, they were already there, as set by the Pats.Also, the case does not fall apart, as Exponent found it doesn't really matter anyways.

Other teams knew the refs didn't normally check the ball PSI very carefully, and would try to sneak out-of-spec balls past the refs:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/20/aaron-rodgers-likes-his-footballs-overinflated/

I like to push the limit to how much air we can put in the football, even go over what they allow you to do and see if the officials take air out of it,' Simms said Rodgers told them before the game."

Do you honestly think the Patriots never tried to submit balls under 12.5 PSI past the refs? It is more likely they often submit balls slightly under 12.5 PSI, hoping the refs approve them. That'd be the easiest way to get slightly-deflated balls into the game, instead of trying to deflate them post-inspection.

I think it's very possible the Patriots submitted balls under 12.5 PSI in the AFC game, and the refs just didn't check very carefully.

Well sure, but that's pretty much the opposite of what Anderson said he did when interviewed.

 

[12punch]

Well sure, but that's pretty much the opposite of what Anderson said he did when interviewed.

yeah, why would we assume the opposite of anderson's claims

 

[Anarchy99]

The other thing that seems odd is I read that the footballs were checked AFTER the game and all were found to be within spec. I don't know if that means all the footballs from both teams. And wouldn't they have deflated per the gas law? Don't know if they recorded the PSI levels after the game.

 

[bostonfred]

Bostonfred,

You can't seriously think that Goodell put in place this whole thing do you? The witch hunt you posted is crazy.

I can't for the life of me figure out how anyone thinking logically about everything that transpired feel that Goodell is out to get the Patriots. Go back and read what you wrote and tell me how crazy that sounds.

I.don't think you read that if you actually thought that I said Goodell is out to get the Patriots. That's not even close.

 

[12punch]

Bostonfred,

You can't seriously think that Goodell put in place this whole thing do you? The witch hunt you posted is crazy.

I can't for the life of me figure out how anyone thinking logically about everything that transpired feel that Goodell is out to get the Patriots. Go back and read what you wrote and tell me how crazy that sounds.

the sane story being some guy going to espn for a pair of uggs

some guy who's been with the team for 32 years ---- probably started when he was in high school, family's owned season tix

after deflating balls for years he decides he's going to roll over on brady, his team, and his employer to espn for a ####### pair of uggs, so he texts the equipment manager in May

that's what doesn't sound crazy

shark pool be sharkin'

hey, remember this guy, btw?

In the aftermath of the incident Bartman, a lifelong Cubs fan, had to be escorted from the stadium by security guards and placed under police protection for a time when his name and address were made public on Major League Baseball message boards

I've lived in both places and chicago fans are joke compared to new englanders

 

[bostonfred]

What I am struggling to see from the Pats side is why would Goodell want to hurt his product by suspending Brady (one of the most popular guys in the NFL) and getting into a war with Kraft one of the most powerful owners in the NFL unless what he thought they did was deserved of such a harsh punishment.

You think Goodell wanted this to become a giant mess? Blaming Goodell for this mess is ludicrous. Once again it is failing to acknowledge that your team, and players made the mistake in the first place. I am guessing he did not want this to be drawn out in the media. The Pats have created smoke yet again and we all know where there is smoke there is usually fire.

Trying to blame Goodell for his is down right laughable and quite frankly ignorant.

I think it went something like this:- Patriots break out the eligible/ineligible play against the Ravens

- Harbaugh is pissed and says they basically cheated

- Brady says it was legal and Harbaugh should read the rulebook

- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call

- the Colts say hey, not a bad idea, let's send a letter to the league and get in their head a little

- Kensil sees that letter and forwards it around to people, and individually oversees a shoddy investigation

- the refs have little to no idea what's going on because kensil doesn't want the pats to be warned in advance

- at this point, Goodell doesn't know what's going on, either

- at halftime, they start measuring, and sure enough the Patriot balks are deflated

- then they start testing the Colts balls, and sure enough several of them are delayed, too.

- they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show

- the balls are reinflated, the rest of the game plays out, and nobody knows what happened

- then someone (kensil?) leaks this investigation to the indy newspapers

- with a depressed fanbase, these allegations look like red meat - but then it bows up into a massive superbowl week story.

- leak after leak comes out from unnamed league sources, many completely false, including stories about measurements much worse than any that were actually taken

- Goodell says there will be an investigation, but can't put the toothpaste back in the tube

- Belichick, remembering what happened during spygate when a cameraman standing in the wrong spot turned into false allegations of taping walk throughs and killing babies, holds a press conference to fight this.

- Goodell doesn't respond, because he wants this whole thing to go away. There'll be an investigation.

- kraft is pissed that he's getting left to hang in the wind, and demands an apology if and when the investigation turns up nothing

- the pats win the superbowl with properly inflated balls

- news stories start coming out showing that the pats were probably innocent and that the NFL had botched the whole investigation

- kensil starts taking heat from fans and media who blame him for the leaks

- it becomes clear that a verdict of not guilty would be highly unpopular and make several people in the league look bad, including Goodell

- they hire a hatchet guy to get some good dirt, and he can't find much. The pats cooperate fully

- then they find the dorito dink texts and start hammering the pats with them. Suddenly play time is over and they lawyer up heavily

- the findings come out days before any ruling is made, and the media starts speculating on the punishment

- Goodell lets Vincent dole out the penalty, keeping his hands somewhat clean

- the pats, who still believe they've done nothing wrong, are incredulous with the harshness of the penalty and vow to fight it

- the media cycle ebbs and flows. First everyone thought the pats were guilty. Then they said the penalty was too harsh. People started to question the process. Some guys, like Albert breer, double down on the leagues side. Others, like Jim and pat on NFL radio, question the league more.

I don't think Goodell singlehandedly ordered a take down of the pats. I agree that this isn't what he wanted. There were a lot of moving parts here. I do think the penalty is too harsh but I'm not on here advancing a narrative that Goodell is to blame for this whole thing, so criticizing me for that is just putting words in my mouth.

I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage. But I also think they inflated the balls to close to 12.5 and told the refs to pump them up to 12.5 when they have them over. I don't think they had enough time to use a needle to manually deflate them in the men's room after I don't think the readings show that they were deflated by enough to suggest that any manual deflation had to have happened. And if that's the case, then they certainly weren't deflated enough for the pats to have risked manually deflating the balls game in, game out - by like .3 psi? when the balks were going to deflate naturally by close to 2psi by halftime?

It seems a lot easier to believe that the readings used by the official, who said he measured the balls at 12.5, on the gauge the official said he used, which would naturally have led to the measurements that they saw at halftime... than it is to believe the wells report, that the ref was wrong about which gauge he used, that they stopped measuring the Colts balls because they suddenly understood the ideal gas law after measuring 16 balls, that someone manually deflated 12 balls at halftime in a minute forty flat, and all the things necessary to believe the deflation narrative. I'm not even saying definitively that the pats never deflated a ball. I just don't believe the supposed evidence that they did it that day. And I think the people who do believe it are generally the ones who haven't looked that deep into it or were previously inclined to believe that the pats were guilty.

I think Goodell was an unwilling participant in all of this. I don't think he was out to get the Patriots at all. I think this whole thing snowballed past what anyone reasonably expected.

 

[The General]

What I am struggling to see from the Pats side is why would Goodell want to hurt his product by suspending Brady (one of the most popular guys in the NFL) and getting into a war with Kraft one of the most powerful owners in the NFL unless what he thought they did was deserved of such a harsh punishment.

You think Goodell wanted this to become a giant mess? Blaming Goodell for this mess is ludicrous. Once again it is failing to acknowledge that your team, and players made the mistake in the first place. I am guessing he did not want this to be drawn out in the media. The Pats have created smoke yet again and we all know where there is smoke there is usually fire.

Trying to blame Goodell for his is down right laughable and quite frankly ignorant.

I think it went something like this:- Patriots break out the eligible/ineligible play against the Ravens

- Harbaugh is pissed and says they basically cheated

- Brady says it was legal and Harbaugh should read the rulebook

- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call

- the Colts say hey, not a bad idea, let's send a letter to the league and get in their head a little

- Kensil sees that letter and forwards it around to people, and individually oversees a shoddy investigation

- the refs have little to no idea what's going on because kensil doesn't want the pats to be warned in advance

- at this point, Goodell doesn't know what's going on, either

- at halftime, they start measuring, and sure enough the Patriot balks are deflated

- then they start testing the Colts balls, and sure enough several of them are delayed, too.

- they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show

- the balls are reinflated, the rest of the game plays out, and nobody knows what happened

- then someone (kensil?) leaks this investigation to the indy newspapers

- with a depressed fanbase, these allegations look like red meat - but then it bows up into a massive superbowl week story.

- leak after leak comes out from unnamed league sources, many completely false, including stories about measurements much worse than any that were actually taken

- Goodell says there will be an investigation, but can't put the toothpaste back in the tube

- Belichick, remembering what happened during spygate when a cameraman standing in the wrong spot turned into false allegations of taping walk throughs and killing babies, holds a press conference to fight this.

- Goodell doesn't respond, because he wants this whole thing to go away. There'll be an investigation.

- kraft is pissed that he's getting left to hang in the wind, and demands an apology if and when the investigation turns up nothing

- the pats win the superbowl with properly inflated balls

- news stories start coming out showing that the pats were probably innocent and that the NFL had botched the whole investigation

- kensil starts taking heat from fans and media who blame him for the leaks

- it becomes clear that a verdict of not guilty would be highly unpopular and make several people in the league look bad, including Goodell

- they hire a hatchet guy to get some good dirt, and he can't find much. The pats cooperate fully

- then they find the dorito dink texts and start hammering the pats with them. Suddenly play time is over and they lawyer up heavily

- the findings come out days before any ruling is made, and the media starts speculating on the punishment

- Goodell lets Vincent dole out the penalty, keeping his hands somewhat clean

- the pats, who still believe they've done nothing wrong, are incredulous with the harshness of the penalty and vow to fight it

- the media cycle ebbs and flows. First everyone thought the pats were guilty. Then they said the penalty was too harsh. People started to question the process. Some guys, like Albert breer, double down on the leagues side. Others, like Jim and pat on NFL radio, question the league more.

I don't think Goodell singlehandedly ordered a take down of the pats. I agree that this isn't what he wanted. There were a lot of moving parts here. I do think the penalty is too harsh but I'm not on here advancing a narrative that Goodell is to blame for this whole thing, so criticizing me for that is just putting words in my mouth.

I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage. But I also think they inflated the balls to close to 12.5 and told the refs to pump them up to 12.5 when they have them over. I don't think they had enough time to use a needle to manually deflate them in the men's room after I don't think the readings show that they were deflated by enough to suggest that any manual deflation had to have happened. And if that's the case, then they certainly weren't deflated enough for the pats to have risked manually deflating the balls game in, game out - by like .3 psi? when the balks were going to deflate naturally by close to 2psi by halftime?

It seems a lot easier to believe that the readings used by the official, who said he measured the balls at 12.5, on the gauge the official said he used, which would naturally have led to the measurements that they saw at halftime... than it is to believe the wells report, that the ref was wrong about which gauge he used, that they stopped measuring the Colts balls because they suddenly understood the ideal gas law after measuring 16 balls, that someone manually deflated 12 balls at halftime in a minute forty flat, and all the things necessary to believe the deflation narrative. I'm not even saying definitively that the pats never deflated a ball. I just don't believe the supposed evidence that they did it that day. And I think the people who do believe it are generally the ones who haven't looked that deep into it or were previously inclined to believe that the pats were guilty.

this is pretty much exactly what happened

Yeah sure.

 

[bostonfred]

Which specific parts do you disagree with?

 

[12punch]

The other thing that seems odd is I read that the footballs were checked AFTER the game and all were found to be within spec. I don't know if that means all the footballs from both teams. And wouldn't they have deflated per the gas law? Don't know if they recorded the PSI levels after the game.

well, I think the problem with this sleuthing is everything is a lot of hearsay and we really have no actual reliable data.

if you really want to look at it from as simple an approach as possible, then we can say that air goes in, but when psi changes due to temp it doesn't actually come out --- it's still in there.

so, if balls start at 12.5 and you add a pound of air in there at halftime there will be 13.5 psi of air in there at room temp, or maybe around 12.5 if measured colder.

but that air is still in there --- they aren't going to shrink back down to 11.5 unless the temp is dropped even further.

I didn't actually read the wells report, so I can't say if that postgame data is listed in there anywhere

 

[JIslander]

With all this fuss, Pats better come squeaky clean at the end of this latest drawn out debacle. If they think they are hated now...

 

[The General]

Which specific parts do you disagree with?

I didn't even read it when I posted that. Anything that 12punch agrees with on this matter I have found has a extremely high chance of being wrong.

After reading it, it gets a little wacko for my tastes here: "- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call"

Not buying this at all: "they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show."

I agree with you here for the most part except I believe the equipment guys were doing much more than "keeping them low": I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage

 

[12punch]

I think Goodell was an unwilling participant in all of this. I don't think he was out to get the Patriots at all. I think this whole thing snowballed past what anyone reasonably expected.

yeah, even after cameragate I wasn't a goodell basher, even though I'm not his biggest fan right now.

he gets a lot of unnecessary ####, but maybe my one criticism, if I had one, would be that what you want from a guy in that position is the confidence that things are running smoothly and goodell always seems to let all these things get away from him.

he seems very reactionary, he never seems in control of a story, and he reminds me of the ref that makes a bad call and ends up turning the spotlight on himself rather than the game.

I think this was all entirely driven by kensil and people of his ilk, with goodell just ending up as the dog's tail, as usual.

he's getting ripped by a ton of people, right now, for this draconian nonsense, but if he just issues a fine, or some late round pick like blank gets for his 2 years of cheating, he probably gets ripped for showing favoritism to his 'buddy', kraft.

 

[12punch]

Which specific parts do you disagree with?

I didn't even read it when I posted that.

shark pool be sharkin'

 

[The General]

Which specific parts do you disagree with?

I didn't even read it when I posted that.

shark pool be sharkin'

Yup. I see you agree with something and have learned it's not worth reading - except for unintentional comedic value.

 

[bostonfred]

Which specific parts do you disagree with?

I didn't even read it when I posted that. Anything that 12punch agrees with on this matter I have found has a extremely high chance of being wrong.

After reading it, it gets a little wacko for my tastes here: "- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call"

Not buying this at all: "they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show."

I agree with you here for the most part except I believe the equipment guys were doing much more than "keeping them low": I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage

i can understand not thinking Harbaugh was involved in the initial report. there's not enough evidence to convict, but I think it makes sense how this thing kicked off. If you think the Colts initiated it on their own I wouldn't argue. obviously the specific actions of the equipment guys are important. But so far all of the findings can be explained without any manual deflation. i get that there are reasonable people who have read this and think the pats manually deflated balls, but it seems really convoluted. So the plan was that they were going to submit balls to the officials, then hope that they could get access to them, which was no gimme, maybe walk them to the men's room down a hallway with a camera, then. With twenty minutes to game time, one guy would race to departure them just as fast as he could, but only a fraction of a psi, when the balls would naturally deflate by almost two psi on their own by halftime, and to support all this, you have to believe that the initial official measured the balls, but forgot which gauge he used when the gauge he said he used would explain the pressure difference, so obviously we can't believe him, and then, when the balls were checked at halftime, the patriots balls were all within the range predicted by the gauge the official said he used (but that was obviously a mistake) so the pats balls must actually have been measured by the other gauge and all but one was low which proves they were cheating, except that all but one of the Colts balls was also low, so with no real agenda, they just stopped measuring the colts balls and conclude that the oats were chatting and deserved to lose a first and forth round pick, have their qb suspended four games, and get fined forty times the fine in the book, while the Colts got nothing for having their balls deflated before the regulation specs because that was just science.

I want you to think about the day that Brady concocted that plan, where the league and the Colts were the real victims, and he decided to put the whole plan in the hands of a guy who calls people dorito ****. if that's the story you believe, that's fine, you've probably read all the same stuff and just come to your own rational conclusions.

But it seems a lot simpler to say that the pats submitted balls before game time, they deflated naturally, and so did the Colts. The ref used the gauge he said he did, the guy who went to the bathroom peed, and there were no grand conspiracies on that day.

 

[The General]

Which specific parts do you disagree with?

I didn't even read it when I posted that. Anything that 12punch agrees with on this matter I have found has a extremely high chance of being wrong.

After reading it, it gets a little wacko for my tastes here: "- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call"

Not buying this at all: "they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show."

I agree with you here for the most part except I believe the equipment guys were doing much more than "keeping them low": I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage

i can understand not thinking Harbaugh was involved in the initial report. there's not enough evidence to convict, but I think it makes sense how this thing kicked off. If you think the Colts initiated it on their own I wouldn't argue.obviously the specific actions of the equipment guys are important. But so far all of the findings can be explained without any manual deflation. i get that there are reasonable people who have read this and think the pats manually deflated balls, but it seems really convoluted. So the plan was that they were going to submit balls to the officials, then hope that they could get access to them, which was no gimme, maybe walk them to the men's room down a hallway with a camera, then. With twenty minutes to game time, one guy would race to departure them just as fast as he could, but only a fraction of a psi, when the balls would naturally deflate by almost two psi on their own by halftime, and to support all this, you have to believe that the initial official measured the balls, but forgot which gauge he used when the gauge he said he used would explain the pressure difference, so obviously we can't believe him, and then, when the balls were checked at halftime, the patriots balls were all within the range predicted by the gauge the official said he used (but that was obviously a mistake) so the pats balls must actually have been measured by the other gauge and all but one was low which proves they were cheating, except that all but one of the Colts balls was also low, so with no real agenda, they just stopped measuring the colts balls and conclude that the oats were chatting and deserved to lose a first and forth round pick, have their qb suspended four games, and get fined forty times the fine in the book, while the Colts got nothing for having their balls deflated before the regulation specs because that was just science.

I want you to think about the day that Brady concocted that plan, where the league and the Colts were the real victims, and he decided to put the whole plan in the hands of a guy who calls people dorito ****. if that's the story you believe, that's fine, you've probably read all the same stuff and just come to your own rational conclusions.

But it seems a lot simpler to say that the pats submitted balls before game time, they deflated naturally, and so did the Colts. The ref used the gauge he said he did, the guy who went to the bathroom peed, and there were no grand conspiracies on that day.

You say this is convoluted to believe all these things happened, I say it's much more difficult to believe all these circumstances have worked against the Pats to make them look guilty but in reality they are innocent, not buying that.

I believe these guy grabbed the balls and let some air out. I believe they have been doing this for awhile. They didn't look at it being a big deal, just getting an edge. Seems pretty simple and straight forward to me.

 

[12punch]

Which specific parts do you disagree with?

I didn't even read it when I posted that. Anything that 12punch agrees with on this matter I have found has a extremely high chance of being wrong.

After reading it, it gets a little wacko for my tastes here: "- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call"

Not buying this at all: "they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show."

I agree with you here for the most part except I believe the equipment guys were doing much more than "keeping them low": I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage

i can understand not thinking Harbaugh was involved in the initial report. there's not enough evidence to convict, but I think it makes sense how this thing kicked off. If you think the Colts initiated it on their own I wouldn't argue.

when this initially broke about the only thing I was interested in was the id of the mystery axe grinder, and who knows who it is, but the colts would probably be abusing willing suspension of disbelief, although possible, I suppose.

the deflator made that one text in may, so we know this nefarious scheme was going on prior to teh 2014 season, and all these crackpot fumble stats show us it's been happening for years, but nobody in the league has noticed these squishy balls and nobody's said a peep about brady's sneaky advantage.

from 2009-2013 brady gave away 48 squishy balls for the squeezing, but if buy into the colts story, according to the report, a colts guy on the sidelines with some kind of supersensitive touch gets his hands on one and can immediately detect this pound of air it's missing --- obviously, and illegally, confirming with a gauge.

they don't bring it to a ref, we hear no complaint about it during or after the game, and we're talking about a road game for the pats in a climate controlled dome.

the deflator is sitting on his couch eating doritos, and if they somehow sneak a pound of air out of all these balls, as is being claimed, the playoff balls would come up even lighter due to the temp difference.

it is very hard to believe this didn't come from baltimore, and the only thing stopping me from immediately assuming this was harbaugh's relationship with belichick, but who really knows about that except harbaugh.

 

[12punch]

[SIZE=13.0080003738403px]If Roger Goodell knew his ankle-biting minions were trying hunting minnows with a speargun on Jan. 18, he may have appreciated their zeal. But he would have told them their time would be better spent on bigger things.[/SIZE]

Right now, the NFL Commissioner’s face is the one on the dartboard. Even people who loathe the Patriots reserve next-level disgust for the poopshow that Goodell is presiding over. But even if this is the iceberg that sinks Goodell, it’s his crew that put him in peril.This has to have struck Goodell at some point. He is in for the fight of his Commissionership trying to make a four-game suspension stick to Tom Brady. All because a $5M, 103-day investigation stated two guys probably let a hiss of air out of footballs before the AFC Championship Game.

Think about the preceding paragraph and forget all the other happy horsecrap we’ve been flinging for five months. That’s what it is. The reigning Super Bowl MVP, the best quarterback of his generation is currently banished for a quarter of the season some footballs – not all – were a fraction underinflated according to some widely disparate measurements which nobody in the league ever paid attention to previously.

Processing the reality of this today, I thought to myself that this must be what old people felt in 1969 when they saw on TV men playing golf on the moon. Fantasy.

But here we are. And the funniest, most ironic thing is that the Ginger Hammer didn’t even know he was being set up Jan. 18 by his overzealous men in the field.

He probably had no idea that an accusatory email was sent by the Colts equipment manager the week of the AFC title game that basically stated, “You guys, everyone knows the Patriots let air out of the footballs...”

Nor did Goodell likely know his Game Operations people – Mike Kensil and David Gardi – mobilized upon receipt of the email, looped in the officials and started rubbing their palms together with anticipation.

By Monday morning, Kensil, Gardi and Troy Vincent – all among the suits who’d been in Foxboro – were able to proudly showed Rog what they’d landed and the progress they’d made in their investigation. Goodell must have been horrified.

But it was already too late to cut the thing loose.......

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/tom-e-curran-says-roger-goodell-it-his-eyes-thanks-to-his-guys

 

[massraider]

You think it's coincidence that deflategate happens the week after the Ravens game, you know, when the Pats rubbed Harbaugh's nose in not knowing the rule book?

Another conspiracy. AWESOME!

I hope that's true.

That would be great if the Ravens said to themselves, "Oh, learn the rule book? Here's a rule we know...."

Maybe it was something they knew, and held onto, a little trump card, like the George Brett pinetar thing.

In fact, I am just going to maintain that this is exactly what happened, because that makes the story awesome.

 

[sho nuff]

The tinfoil hat BS and conspiracies may be the dumbest things said in this thread (yeah, dumber than deflator is because of weight).

 

[OldMilwaukee]

Why do I keep coming here?????

 

[Run It Up]

Why do I keep coming here?????

Its a sickness.

 

[General Tso]

The tinfoil hat BS and conspiracies may be the dumbest things said in this thread (yeah, dumber than deflator is because of weight).

You know, you can keep lobbing childish insults about our "conspiracy" theories but all it really shows is your ignorance on the subject. Jason La Canfora initially reported after the Pats Ravens playoff game that several members of the Ravens staff were complaining about deflated kicking balls. Several reporters, including Jay Glazer, Ben Volin and Boomer Esiason, later claimed that Harbaugh subsequently alerted Chuck Pagano about the deflated balls. And as we know, Pagano used to work for Harbaugh and they are close. Not sure why you guys keep going on and on about it as if it's a ridiculous tinfoil hat conspiracy theory. Harbaugh has obviously denied it (not a good look being labelled as a snitch) but it was reported at the time and a lot of reasonable people still believe it's what likely occurred.http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/24/ravens-coach-john-harbaugh-sounds-like-man-pleading-for-forgiveness-over-deflategate/nomWQem0ynWFfq4RG27QHP/story.html#Also, a few days after the Colts game Harbaugh said that the NFL had been in contact with the Ravens organization about deflated balls in the Patriots game. As we know, the Ravens never handled one of the Pats' footballs that game, but Harbaugh still #####ed and moaned about the kicking balls seeming to be deflated. And what's most revealing is that when he was asked about prior games with the Pats and deflated footballs he had this to say:

"As far as in the past, I don't really want to get into all that. I don't have any comment on that."

As for the notion that all this came solely from the Colts, I don't buy it, and I never have. Head of Officiating Blandino said on January 28th that he was not aware of any issues or concerns expressed with regard to deflation during the Pats Colts regular season game. And the initial report that came out after the playoff game was that Deqwell Jackson noticed the ball was deflated when he intercepted it. That narrative lasted all of 24 hours until Jackson was interviewed and denied it outright. We talked about all this at length in the days leading up to the Super Bowl. This has all the underpinnings of Harbaugh tipping off Pagano after being pissed off about losing to the Pats, the "illegal formations", the embarrassing penalty he took during the game for losing his cool, and then having smug ### Tom Brady rub it in his face by saying he doesn't know the rule book.

If it looks like a snitch, talks like a snitch, and acts like a snitch - it's probably a snitch.

 

[Lutherman2112]

Why do I keep coming here?????

I keep coming for the Pats fans reactions.

Tainted team, keeps on tainting.

 

[moleculo]

Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean they aren't actually to get you.

There very well may be a grand conspiracy... Doesn't really change the facts of the case.

 

[moleculo]

What I am struggling to see from the Pats side is why would Goodell want to hurt his product by suspending Brady (one of the most popular guys in the NFL) and getting into a war with Kraft one of the most powerful owners in the NFL unless what he thought they did was deserved of such a harsh punishment.

You think Goodell wanted this to become a giant mess? Blaming Goodell for this mess is ludicrous. Once again it is failing to acknowledge that your team, and players made the mistake in the first place. I am guessing he did not want this to be drawn out in the media. The Pats have created smoke yet again and we all know where there is smoke there is usually fire.

Trying to blame Goodell for his is down right laughable and quite frankly ignorant.

I think it went something like this:- Patriots break out the eligible/ineligible play against the Ravens

- Harbaugh is pissed and says they basically cheated

- Brady says it was legal and Harbaugh should read the rulebook

- Harbaugh says, OK, I know you guys like playing with the softest ball you can and I bet the colts can catch you on a cold day, and makes a phone call

- the Colts say hey, not a bad idea, let's send a letter to the league and get in their head a little

- Kensil sees that letter and forwards it around to people, and individually oversees a shoddy investigation

- the refs have little to no idea what's going on because kensil doesn't want the pats to be warned in advance

- at this point, Goodell doesn't know what's going on, either

- at halftime, they start measuring, and sure enough the Patriot balks are deflated

- then they start testing the Colts balls, and sure enough several of them are delayed, too.

- they stop testing the Colts balls because it doesn't show what they want it to show

- the balls are reinflated, the rest of the game plays out, and nobody knows what happened

- then someone (kensil?) leaks this investigation to the indy newspapers

- with a depressed fanbase, these allegations look like red meat - but then it bows up into a massive superbowl week story.

- leak after leak comes out from unnamed league sources, many completely false, including stories about measurements much worse than any that were actually taken

- Goodell says there will be an investigation, but can't put the toothpaste back in the tube

- Belichick, remembering what happened during spygate when a cameraman standing in the wrong spot turned into false allegations of taping walk throughs and killing babies, holds a press conference to fight this.

- Goodell doesn't respond, because he wants this whole thing to go away. There'll be an investigation.

- kraft is pissed that he's getting left to hang in the wind, and demands an apology if and when the investigation turns up nothing

- the pats win the superbowl with properly inflated balls

- news stories start coming out showing that the pats were probably innocent and that the NFL had botched the whole investigation

- kensil starts taking heat from fans and media who blame him for the leaks

- it becomes clear that a verdict of not guilty would be highly unpopular and make several people in the league look bad, including Goodell

- they hire a hatchet guy to get some good dirt, and he can't find much. The pats cooperate fully

- then they find the dorito dink texts and start hammering the pats with them. Suddenly play time is over and they lawyer up heavily

- the findings come out days before any ruling is made, and the media starts speculating on the punishment

- Goodell lets Vincent dole out the penalty, keeping his hands somewhat clean

- the pats, who still believe they've done nothing wrong, are incredulous with the harshness of the penalty and vow to fight it

- the media cycle ebbs and flows. First everyone thought the pats were guilty. Then they said the penalty was too harsh. People started to question the process. Some guys, like Albert breer, double down on the leagues side. Others, like Jim and pat on NFL radio, question the league more.

I don't think Goodell singlehandedly ordered a take down of the pats. I agree that this isn't what he wanted. There were a lot of moving parts here. I do think the penalty is too harsh but I'm not on here advancing a narrative that Goodell is to blame for this whole thing, so criticizing me for that is just putting words in my mouth.

I also don't think the pats are without blame. Brady should never have said read the rulebook. kraft should never have demanded am apology. And honestly, I do suspect that the Patriots deliberately put those balls as low as they could, especially when it's cold. I think they understand the advantage. But I also think they inflated the balls to close to 12.5 and told the refs to pump them up to 12.5 when they have them over. I don't think they had enough time to use a needle to manually deflate them in the men's room after I don't think the readings show that they were deflated by enough to suggest that any manual deflation had to have happened. And if that's the case, then they certainly weren't deflated enough for the pats to have risked manually deflating the balls game in, game out - by like .3 psi? when the balks were going to deflate naturally by close to 2psi by halftime?

It seems a lot easier to believe that the readings used by the official, who said he measured the balls at 12.5, on the gauge the official said he used, which would naturally have led to the measurements that they saw at halftime... than it is to believe the wells report, that the ref was wrong about which gauge he used, that they stopped measuring the Colts balls because they suddenly understood the ideal gas law after measuring 16 balls, that someone manually deflated 12 balls at halftime in a minute forty flat, and all the things necessary to believe the deflation narrative. I'm not even saying definitively that the pats never deflated a ball. I just don't believe the supposed evidence that they did it that day. And I think the people who do believe it are generally the ones who haven't looked that deep into it or were previously inclined to believe that the pats were guilty.

Its a great narrative and I'm with you except for the simple fact that the Exponent report doesn't agree with any of this. I haven't seen any physical explanation that covers every base, outside of the Wells conclusion. I know you will disagree. I'm willing to leave some wiggle-room...as soon as I see a valid experiment showing how the Pats balls can be at the pressure recorded, I'll buy in. I'm a reasonable man and can be convinced when evidence leads to a conclusion, but someone has to actually demonstrate it first.

So I guess that's my challenge: prove it. Wells/exponent gave their experimental results, where are the results showing no illegal deflation?

 

[Run It Up]

What was lacking about MacKinnon's take?

 

[moleculo]

What was lacking about MacKinnon's take?

There is no experiment there, only a critique of Exponents report.Beyond that, MacKinnon botched a lot of the exponent report. He ignored entire sections, specifically gauge accuracy and repeatability. He does raise some interesting points, but not anything unexplainable via the Wells/exponent theory. If I get a chance tomorrow, I will break it all down.

 

[moleculo]

Seriously though. It would simply take a dozen footballs, a pressure gauge, a temperature chamber, a timer, a spray bottle, and a few hours to replicate the Exponent transient experiment. If the experiment is so demonstratably bogus, where is the experimental data to disprove it?

 

[General Tso]

David Carr talked about deflating balls in 2006... http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/16/david-carr-spoke-of-deflating-footballs-in-2006/

 

[Run It Up]

What was lacking about MacKinnon's take?

There is no experiment there, only a critique of Exponents report.Beyond that, MacKinnon botched a lot of the exponent report. He ignored entire sections, specifically gauge accuracy and repeatability. He does raise some interesting points, but not anything unexplainable via the Wells/exponent theory. If I get a chance tomorrow, I will break it all down.

Well, Id also love to hear your insight on Fustin's write up.

Not many people have linked it, I've only seen it a few places - it was a pain in the ### trying to dig it back up.

 

[moleculo]

What was lacking about MacKinnon's take?

There is no experiment there, only a critique of Exponents report.Beyond that, MacKinnon botched a lot of the exponent report. He ignored entire sections, specifically gauge accuracy and repeatability. He does raise some interesting points, but not anything unexplainable via the Wells/exponent theory. If I get a chance tomorrow, I will break it all down.

Well, Id also love to hear your insight on Fustin's write up.Not many people have linked it, I've only seen it a few places - it was a pain in the ### trying to dig it back up.

I like it...much better. I need a little more time to digest, hopefully I can get to it tomorrow or Monday.He is leaning on pre-game gauge selection though...I went over that a couple of pages back, so that's one thing.

ETA: there is no experiment here...just critique of exponents report.

 

[Run It Up]

You've had no problem critiquing the critique in the past.

I thought it was compelling.

 

[Bucky86]

This is still going on? Pats are still cheaters, right?