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Pats are -13 over the Giants (1 Viewer)

GIANTS +7 over Bucs

GIANTS +7 1/2 over 'Boys

GIANTS +8 over Packers

A year's salary in 3 weeks thanks to The G-MEN

GIANTS + WHATEVER over The Pats...BOOK IT!

 
What's the weather gonna be like in Arizona in 2 weeks? And is that stadium closer to Foxboro or New Jersey??

 
Fox announced -14, although I agree it looks like -13.5 is the "official" line as I type this...I have some buddies going to Vegas for the SB and plan on betting the Pats BIG TIME $$$$$ :goodposting:

 
The Pats haven't covered a spread in like 8 or 9 weeks. Gmen kept it very close last time, and should of won the game. I'll take the Giants and the pts.

 
At 13.5 on Matchbook, the early money is on NY with them at -118 to NE's +115. Also, more money on the under 55.5, at -134 on the under and +126 on the over.

I would say the smart move is to bet the underdog, since the public comes in huge on Superbowl Sunday and the public likes the favorite. However, I think I saw that the favorite actually covers more often in the Superbowl. Also, the -13.5 is a number to bait you into betting NE, figuring you don't have to give up two full TDs. However, I don't think the books want to bait people, as this game has so much action that they need to have equal money.

 
Here are my 2 cents.

I think that the smart money is on the Giants in this one (and I am a Pats fan). There seems to have been a shift in offensive pholosophy in the post season (whether it is by design or defensive adjustment). The Patriots are back playing the way that they did before this year. I think BB and the Patriots have shown that they are comforable sitting on a relatively small lead and controlling the clock. We are seeing a more balanced attack than we saw in the regular season. They are not taking chances throwing it deep when they have a lead, they are running it. Even if the Pat outclass the Giants, it may show up as a 10 point win and a couple of 10 minute drives in the second half.

 
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Itchy Amos said:
Here are my 2 cents.I think that the smart money is on the Giants in this one (and I am a Pats fan). There seems to have been a shift in offensive pholosophy in the post season (whether it is by design or defensive adjustment). The Patriots are back playing the way that they did before this year. I think BB and the Patriots have shown that they are comforable sitting on a relatively small lead and controlling the clock. We are seeing a more balanced attack than we saw in the regular season. They are not taking chances throwing it deep when they have a lead, they are running it. Even if the Pat outclass the Giants, it may show up as a 10 point win and a couple of 10 minute drives in the second half.
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A couple of things here. I agree for the most part. We differ in this respect. The Patriots have been playing in colder weather as of late which has slowed down the passing game. Also, teams have played two deep safeties and taken away the Pats deep game. With the weather likley at 70-80 degrees I think you might see the passing game a little closer to what it was early in the season rather than what you've seen more recently. But you are right that there has been a de-emphasis on "going for the throat" lately, which is partly the choice of the Pats more conservative style and partly the opposing "D" overplaying the pass.
 
NoCheese said:
Itchy Amos said:
Here are my 2 cents.I think that the smart money is on the Giants in this one (and I am a Pats fan). There seems to have been a shift in offensive pholosophy in the post season (whether it is by design or defensive adjustment). The Patriots are back playing the way that they did before this year. I think BB and the Patriots have shown that they are comforable sitting on a relatively small lead and controlling the clock. We are seeing a more balanced attack than we saw in the regular season. They are not taking chances throwing it deep when they have a lead, they are running it. Even if the Pat outclass the Giants, it may show up as a 10 point win and a couple of 10 minute drives in the second half.
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A couple of things here. I agree for the most part. We differ in this respect. The Patriots have been playing in colder weather as of late which has slowed down the passing game. Also, teams have played two deep safeties and taken away the Pats deep game. With the weather likley at 70-80 degrees I think you might see the passing game a little closer to what it was early in the season rather than what you've seen more recently. But you are right that there has been a de-emphasis on "going for the throat" lately, which is partly the choice of the Pats more conservative style and partly the opposing "D" overplaying the pass.
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:shrug: Along with Bellichick's strategy to run more as the weather turned bad, it would not have surprised me at all if he actually chose not to run earlier in the season to keep Maroney fresh for the late year and post season. Thru Sept, Oct Nov....it wasn't as if the Pats struggled to run, they just chose not to bother.
 
Itchy Amos said:
Here are my 2 cents.I think that the smart money is on the Giants in this one (and I am a Pats fan). There seems to have been a shift in offensive pholosophy in the post season (whether it is by design or defensive adjustment). The Patriots are back playing the way that they did before this year. I think BB and the Patriots have shown that they are comforable sitting on a relatively small lead and controlling the clock. We are seeing a more balanced attack than we saw in the regular season. They are not taking chances throwing it deep when they have a lead, they are running it. Even if the Pat outclass the Giants, it may show up as a 10 point win and a couple of 10 minute drives in the second half.
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Let's also not forget the change in weather. Pats get a fast track in warm, perfect weather in two weeks.
 
This is a legacy game, ala the Bears 55-to whataver score back in the day....

I think the Pats win by 5 TD's...

 
Jason Wood said:
Itchy Amos said:
Here are my 2 cents.I think that the smart money is on the Giants in this one (and I am a Pats fan). There seems to have been a shift in offensive pholosophy in the post season (whether it is by design or defensive adjustment). The Patriots are back playing the way that they did before this year. I think BB and the Patriots have shown that they are comforable sitting on a relatively small lead and controlling the clock. We are seeing a more balanced attack than we saw in the regular season. They are not taking chances throwing it deep when they have a lead, they are running it. Even if the Pat outclass the Giants, it may show up as a 10 point win and a couple of 10 minute drives in the second half.
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Let's also not forget the change in weather. Pats get a fast track in warm, perfect weather in two weeks.
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This is a good point that a couple of you have mentioned. The big problem with the quick score offense is that leaves the Patriots veteran defense on the field too long too early in the game. So much of what the Pats do defensively is predicated on good play from their line backing corp. Colvin was more of a speed guy. When he went out it forced Seau to play more snaps. The Patriots D is built for cold weather. They are a senior group. Outside of Thomas and maybe Vrabel (who looks like he has worn down over the course of the season), most of them have lost a step or two. They rely on experience and technique more than speed. I dont know enough about the Giants D to say for certain, but it seemed like they had more speed (at least in the front seven) than the Pats. I think the perfect weather would be a benefit only to the Patriots offense, whereas, I could see it as a positive for both the offense and defense of the Giants. It also seems like the Pats have big problems with tall powerful receivers (like Burress) and shifty running backs (like Bradshaw). I dont think the Pats D will shut down NY by any stretch. New York matches up pretty well.I guess you never know until they play the game, but I expect one of two scenarios: 1. The Patriots try to control the clock to keep their defense fresh which will lead to a lower scoring affair (31-20)2. The Patriots come out throwing knowing that they wont have the threat of a legitimate defense in the fourth quarter. (41-30).From my perspective, the bottom line is that if you think the Patriots are not as potent on offense lately because the weather has been bad, then the over looks great. If you think that the Patriots are not as potent on offense because of a shift in philosophy, then the points look pretty good (but you never know)Good luck to everyone laying money on the game.
 
How much were the Rams favored over the Pats in the Super Bowl? I took the Pats money line that game.

I think the Giants chance at shockeying© the Pats are better than some might think. The Pats have looked very beatable lately. Granted, it seems the weather has slowed the machine down. Also could be teams are figuring them out a little bit more....or just that the Pats are willing to run more. Either way, I think the Giants can take part of the Chargers blueprint (which was good imo) plus what they saw in the final game of the year, and build on that. Their downfall might be ignoring what the Pats were doing mid-way in the season since weather will be perfect in Arizona.

Anyways, right now I'm thinking Pats win, but Giants keep it under 13pts. I also like the over right now (the Giants will score at least 20pts in this game). I'll be tempted as we get closer to just lay some down on the money line in the last game of the year.

 
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Itchy Amos said:
The big problem with the quick score offense is that leaves the Patriots veteran defense on the field too long too early in the game. So much of what the Pats do defensively is predicated on good play from their line backing corp. the refs letting the Patriot LB's and DB's grab and push the opponents receivers.
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I'm not asking anyone to agree with me, I just ask that you simply watch how the Patriot defenders play during the Superbowl. It will speak for itself.
 
dickey moe said:
Rounders said:
Seriously? OMG, love the Pats.
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Right around where I thought it would be. I think you'll see a lot of money float to the Pats, but don't be surprised if they don't cover. The Giants are on top of their game right now.
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Those betting the Patriots the last 1/4 of the season and in the playoffs are losing money big time.I don't know if they'll cover the spread this time or not but they're due to cover. They covered like crazy thru about the first 11 weeks of the season and then have gone into the tank in terms of the betting line.It's a scary bet here in the SB because they aren't covering and the Giants only lost by 3 points to them less than a month ago.The weather will be good this time which should favor the Pats. I really don't like this game either way, I won't be putting a ton on it. I've made money off the Giants so far this post season but I have a gut feeling that this game isn't going to be as close.And on the flip side of that, the Patriots when a favorite in the SB recently hasn't been covering, so I'm just going to put my money in some SB squares that pay out 100 percent and hope to get lucky.
 
Jason Wood said:
Fox announced -14, although I agree it looks like -13.5 is the "official" line as I type this...I have some buddies going to Vegas for the SB and plan on betting the Pats BIG TIME $$$$$ :rant:
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I don't think I have found anyone to be more irritating lately (even surpasses Gridiron). Forget rooting against the Pats - I'm rooting aginst Wood and his cronies.
 
Jason Wood said:
Fox announced -14, although I agree it looks like -13.5 is the "official" line as I type this...I have some buddies going to Vegas for the SB and plan on betting the Pats BIG TIME $$$$$ :goodposting:
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Your hatred is clouding your judgement. If you look closely, the Pats haven't blown out any teams not named the Dolphins since whipping a Steelers team on the decline 2 months ago. Just this past week they struggled against a broken down San Diego squad at home. Now all of a sudden they are going to blow a physical Giants team playing their best FB of the year out of the water? Good luck with that.
 
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Just some offensive post season stats...

Patriots

Total yards: 403 TD: 4 T.O.P.: 32:42 60% 3rd down efficiency 66% Red Zone

Total yards: 347 TD: 3 T.O.P.: 33:20 53% 3rd down efficiency 75% Red Zone

Giants

Total yards: 277 TD: 3 T.O.P.: 33:31 41% 3rd down efficiency 75% Red Zone

Total yards: 230 TD: 3 T.O.P.: 23:30 44% 3rd down efficiency 100% Red Zone

Total yards: 377 TD: 2 T.O.P.: 40:01 37% 3rd down efficiency 40% Red Zone

Patriots have been pretty solid offensively in the playoffs so far. Provided Brady's foot is a non-factor I think they can perform fine in the warm weather conditions. While they are no longer playing for the single season TD record, I believe they still want to make a "statement" in front of the biggest national audience of the season.

 
ceo3west said:
Jason Wood said:
Fox announced -14, although I agree it looks like -13.5 is the "official" line as I type this...I have some buddies going to Vegas for the SB and plan on betting the Pats BIG TIME $$$$$ :yes:
Click to expand...
You're hatred is clouding your judgement. If you look closely, the Pats haven't blown out any teams not named the Dolphins since whipping a Steelers team on the decline 2 months ago. Just this past week they struggled against a broken down San Diego squad at home. Now all of a sudden they are going to blow a physical Giants team playing their best FB of the year out of the water? Good luck with that.
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:goodposting: I usually like Wood but his dislike for the Giants is beyond laughable. He's been ripping them since the start of the playoffs.. He thought Tampa would beat them & so on & so on..
 
LOTS of cash coming in on NY... down to -11 at bodog now with the total down to 53.

Looking good for a NE -5 / Over 47 Tease....

 
Bobcat10 said:
How much were the Rams favored over the Pats in the Super Bowl? I took the Pats money line that game.I think the Giants chance at shockeying© the Pats are better than some might think. The Pats have looked very beatable lately. Granted, it seems the weather has slowed the machine down. Also could be teams are figuring them out a little bit more....or just that the Pats are willing to run more. Either way, I think the Giants can take part of the Chargers blueprint (which was good imo) plus what they saw in the final game of the year, and build on that. Their downfall might be ignoring what the Pats were doing mid-way in the season since weather will be perfect in Arizona.Anyways, right now I'm thinking Pats win, but Giants keep it under 13pts. I also like the over right now (the Giants will score at least 20pts in this game). I'll be tempted as we get closer to just lay some down on the money line in the last game of the year.
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As far as the Pats go, I agree with most of your assessment. With regard to the Giants' chances of shockeying New England, I think all of the following play in New England's favor:- I suspect that the Giants chances hinge on the effectiveness of Tom Brady. If he is "on" and "accurate," I suspect that we may not even need to go on from here. IMO, if Brady has his timing and precision down, I don't see the Patriots losing no matter what the Giants do. An "A game" from Brady and this could get out of hand (although I am not suggesting that Brady will play lights out.)- Not playing on the road in New Jersey. The Giants fans were pumped up for that game and the Giants responded. A neutral field should eliminate that (and I suspect much of the crowd will be pro-Pats but I have no way of knowing for sure).- MUCH better weather. IMO, the offense was not as productive given the elements, the cold, the wind, the precipitation, etc. NE should score in the 30s again no matter what the Giants defense throws at them.- A dry track for their horses to run on. Playing on a field with footing will go a long way in their execution on multiple reciver sets and giving the G-Men fits with everyone getting a head of steam running their routes. - The Pats have rediscovered their running game, and they have shown that they are content and able to run the ball effectively and/or throw to their backs out of the backfield with great success. Given the playing conditions, I suspect that NE will be able to mix up runs, screens, underneath routes, and deep patterns all game long . . . essentially opening their entire play book which I am not so sure they have been able to utilize in recent weeks.- The Pats will show different looks, sets, plays than they did all season. I have heard that they have been practicing specialty plays all season long that they have not yet unleashed in game conditions (and that they have not used in other years either). I would not be surprised if they whip out something like the Brady to Moss to Brady lateral for a TD pass in the SB.- Big game experience. We know the Pats havea lot of players that have danced this dance before . . . but what about the Giants? Experience and track should help NE.- While I have heard all the talk about the blueprint to beating the Patriots, I have yet to see it work. Teams have to pick what they want to scheme to stop and have not really stymied the NE offense much at all this season.- Rampant media speculation that the their defense is somehow subpar and/or old . . . they have allowed a total of two TD in their playoff games. They may give up yards but not a ton of points.- The Giants have scored 21-24 point in the playoffs. I suspect that they will need to score more than that to win.- The turnover factor (part one). In games following 3 interceptions (8 games total), Brady has posted an average of 234 passing yards, 1.5 passing TD, and 0.25 INT.- The turnover factor (part two). The Patriots RB and WR corps has not had a lost fumble in their 18 game win streak.-- Two weeks to prepare. In the Brady/Belichick era, NE has gone 14-1 after a bye week. Those games were decide by an average score of 27-13.- Up until now, no team has been able to go toe-to-toe with NE for 60 minutes and come out victorious. A few teams were able to go 30, 45, maybe even 50-55 minutes but not the full 60. - As I have said many times this year, to beat the Pats you have to hope they play a "B game" while the other team plays an "A game." The planets almost aligned in the Meadowlands a few weeks ago, as IMO the Giants played an "A- game" and the Pats played a "B game." Even that was not enough to walk away with the W.I will be the first to admit that games are decided on the field and not on the stat sheet and that anything is possible in any given game.As an aside, in looking at the 10,000 game simulation model that is getting reported, NE has won 77% of the simulations with the average score being 31-21 Patriots.As I see it, Pats win but don't cover due to either a garbage time score by the Giants or the Pats electing to sit on the ball in another long drive and not looking to tack on more points to try and cover. I see this one 35-24 Pats.
 
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FWIW, 22 of the 41 SBs have been won by 13 or more points. I think the experience/coaching/Brady factors give the Pats a Very good chance of becoming the 23rd.

 
David Yudkin said:
Bobcat10 said:
How much were the Rams favored over the Pats in the Super Bowl? I took the Pats money line that game.I think the Giants chance at shockeying© the Pats are better than some might think. The Pats have looked very beatable lately. Granted, it seems the weather has slowed the machine down. Also could be teams are figuring them out a little bit more....or just that the Pats are willing to run more. Either way, I think the Giants can take part of the Chargers blueprint (which was good imo) plus what they saw in the final game of the year, and build on that. Their downfall might be ignoring what the Pats were doing mid-way in the season since weather will be perfect in Arizona.Anyways, right now I'm thinking Pats win, but Giants keep it under 13pts. I also like the over right now (the Giants will score at least 20pts in this game). I'll be tempted as we get closer to just lay some down on the money line in the last game of the year.
Click to expand...
As far as the Pats go, I agree with most of your assessment. With regard to the Giants' chances of shockeying New England, I think all of the following play in New England's favor:- I suspect that the Giants chances hinge on the effectiveness of Tom Brady. If he is "on" and "accurate," I suspect that we may not even need to go on from here. IMO, if Brady has his timing and precision down, I don't see the Patriots losing no matter what the Giants do. An "A game" from Brady and this could get out of hand (although I am not suggesting that Brady will play lights out.)- Not playing on the road in New Jersey. The Giants fans were pumped up for that game and the Giants responded. A neutral field should eliminate that (and I suspect much of the crowd will be pro-Pats but I have no way of knowing for sure).- MUCH better weather. IMO, the offense was not as productive given the elements, the cold, the wind, the precipitation, etc. NE should score in the 30s again no matter what the Giants defense throws at them.- A dry track for their horses to run on. Playing on a field with footing will go a long way in their execution on multiple reciver sets and giving the G-Men fits with everyone getting a head of steam running their routes. - The Pats have rediscovered their running game, and they have shown that they are content and able to run the ball effectively and/or throw to their backs out of the backfield with great success. Given the playing conditions, I suspect that NE will be able to mix up runs, screens, underneath routes, and deep patterns all game long . . . essentially opening their entire play book which I am not so sure they have been able to utilize in recent weeks.- The Pats will show different looks, sets, plays than they did all season. I have heard that they have been practicing specialty plays all season long that they have not yet unleashed in game conditions (and that they have not used in other years either). I would not be surprised if they whip out something like the Brady to Moss to Brady lateral for a TD pass in the SB.- Big game experience. We know the Pats havea lot of players that have danced this dance before . . . but what about the Giants? Experience and track should help NE.- While I have heard all the talk about the blueprint to beating the Patriots, I have yet to see it work. Teams have to pick what they want to scheme to stop and have not really stymied the NE offense much at all this season.- Rampant media speculation that the their defense is somehow subpar and/or old . . . they have allowed a total of two TD in their playoff games. They may give up yards but not a ton of points.- The Giants have scored 21-24 point in the playoffs. I suspect that they will need to score more than that to win.- The turnover factor (part one). In games following 3 interceptions (8 games total), Brady has posted an average of 234 passing yards, 1.5 passing TD, and 0.25 INT.- The turnover factor (part two). The Patriots RB and WR corps has not had a lost fumble in their 18 game win streak.-- Two weeks to prepare. In the Brady/Belichick era, NE has gone 14-1 after a bye week. Those games were decide by an average score of 27-13.- Up until now, no team has been able to go toe-to-toe with NE for 60 minutes and come out victorious. A few teams were able to go 30, 45, maybe even 50-55 minutes but not the full 60. - As I have said many times this year, to beat the Pats you have to hope they play a "B game" while the other team plays an "A game." The planets almost aligned in the Meadowlands a few weeks ago, as IMO the Giants played an "A- game" and the Pats played a "B game." Even that was not enough to walk away with the W.I will be the first to admit that games are decided on the field and not on the stat sheet and that anything is possible in any given game.As an aside, in looking at the 10,000 game simulation model that is getting reported, NE has won 77% of the simulations with the average score being 31-21 Patriots.As I see it, Pats win but don't cover due to either a garbage time score by the Giants or the Pats electing to sit on the ball in another long drive and not looking to tack on more points to try and cover. I see this one 35-24 Pats.
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The Giants will need to control the clock like they did against GB. They can also use SB 25 as a blueprint - 10+ minute drives ended up killing the Bills. If they can keep Brady & Co. off the field, they have a shot. That is the only way they can win this game IMO. Either way, I don't think the Pats can blow this team out the way the Giants are playing right now.
 
ceo3west said:
The Giants will need to control the clock like they did against GB. They can also use SB 25 as a blueprint - 10+ minute drives ended up killing the Bills. If they can keep Brady & Co. off the field, they have a shot. That is the only way they can win this game IMO. Either way, I don't think the Pats can blow this team out the way the Giants are playing right now.
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Good News for the GiantsSB 25 defensive game plan is available for public viewing in the Hall of Fame.

Bad News for the Giants

They're coaching against the guy who created that defensive game plan.

:yes:

 
I hate the Patriots. But, this one is going to be a walk. They're going to win by 4+ TDs. Give the points and don't touch the O/U.

 
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