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PBS Frontline : The Retirement Gamble, sorta Must See (5 Viewers)

@saintfool roughly 11 years from now, a 4 year private college education will cost around $400k before financial aid if we assume an average 4% growth in college costs.

Public college will obviously be much less.

 
To be fair, the 4% number I used is higher than the growth rate has been the past decade but some of the slower growth in cost has been due to inflation being so low.  Should inflation pick up even a little, it would not shock me to see the college costs start to pick up in speed.

If we use a 3% growth rate instead, 11 years from now, the cost will be more in the $350k range, before financial aid, for a 4 year private school education.

See, doesn't that make you feel better ;)

 
@saintfool roughly 11 years from now, a 4 year private college education will cost around $400k before financial aid if we assume an average 4% growth in college costs.

Public college will obviously be much less.
Very few people save THAT kind of money for 1 kid's undergrad education.  And if they do spend that (even in today's dollars), it's because they already have it and can burn money. Don't let those big #'s scare you.  Laughable considering what most people have saved for retirement.  Just save diligently for college.  It'll add up.

 
NewlyRetired said:
@saintfool roughly 11 years from now, a 4 year private college education will cost around $400k before financial aid if we assume an average 4% growth in college costs.

Public college will obviously be much less.
Planning purposes, estimates for 4-year public college is at $100k. Target funds typically rebalance based on progress made against timelines rather than the financial goal itself.

 
Still trying to project my future numbers, pal of mind referred me to this simple rule that has been shown to work the vast majority of the time.  Probably been brought up before, but, didn't want to search the whole thread.   I think I'm going to follow this pretty closely when I figure out everything that's going to contribute to my nest egg.  Lots of things in flux over the next year unfortunately.  

 
Seems really low to me.   I'd guess as you get closer to your planned age of death, that percentage would increase especially if you goal was to find that sweet spot between not running out of money and spending as much as possible. 

 
Seems really low to me.   I'd guess as you get closer to your planned age of death, that percentage would increase especially if you goal was to find that sweet spot between not running out of money and spending as much as possible. 
It is a shade conservative, but not by much for a 30 year retirement.  There are some good variable schemes out there that are a bit more efficient.

 
Still trying to project my future numbers, pal of mind referred me to this simple rule that has been shown to work the vast majority of the time.  Probably been brought up before, but, didn't want to search the whole thread.   I think I'm going to follow this pretty closely when I figure out everything that's going to contribute to my nest egg.  Lots of things in flux over the next year unfortunately.  
The 4% rule is one that is discussed a ton on early retirement boards.  Many (like myself) think it is very aggressive for early retirees.  Most prefer a 3%-3.5% model for withdrawal reduction.

Of course the longer you intend to be retired the more conservative you should model.  If you are looking at a 20-25 year type of retirement, then 4% might be ok.

In our first 6 years of retirement we have been running between 2% and 2.5% which feels very safe for us.  This will likely fluctuate up in the future so the more low years we have, it should help balance the bigger years.

 
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The 4% rule is one that is discussed a ton on early retirement boards.  Many (like myself) think it is very aggressive for early retirees.  Most prefer a 3%-3.5% model for withdrawal reduction.

Of course the longer you intend to be retired the more conservative you should model.  If you are looking at a 20-25 year type of retirement, then 4% might be ok.

In our first 6 years of retirement we have been running between 2% and 2.5% which feels very safe for us.  This will likely fluctuate up in the future so the more low years we have, it should help balance the bigger years.
I think generally the 4% falls like everything else in retirement, in the "depends" category.  Depends on your other income streams, depends on you lifestyle, depends on your personal nature.  Nothing is hard and fast in this stuff, you obviously have it figured out.  The 4% rule applies to those with a basic understanding of finances and to those who use financial advisors, like the article stated...that strategy generally works.  It even said that a more aggressive approach can work, just depends. 

I'll have a pension, social security bridge, 401k, a well-funded Roth IRA that I've been investing in since I was in my early 20s, and the sale of a house in a high cost living area.  I'll retire at 57, not sure what percentage I'll take but I'd guess it would be 5% or more for the first few years, then dial it back after that.  You should use more money while you are young, unless of course your goal is to leave a bunch for your heirs.  Again, it just depends on your goals. 

 
The 4% rule is one that is discussed a ton on early retirement boards.  Many (like myself) think it is very aggressive for early retirees.  Most prefer a 3%-3.5% model for withdrawal reduction.

Of course the longer you intend to be retired the more conservative you should model.  If you are looking at a 20-25 year type of retirement, then 4% might be ok.

In our first 6 years of retirement we have been running between 2% and 2.5% which feels very safe for us.  This will likely fluctuate up in the future so the more low years we have, it should help balance the bigger years.
Yeah I think all those models I linked to were run at 30 years of retirement so it all depends on when you want to retire and how long you expect to live. 30 years seems about right for me.  Still haven't added up all my nest egg yet thoug, ugh, too many projects going on at once. Was just able to get logged back into my social security account a couple days ago. 

I get a large chunk of my retirement handed back to me next December.  Going to pay off the house and then invest the rest.  Trying to figure out how to pull off a back door Roth. 

 
Oh, and one thing I do have figured out is my current lifestyle isn't going to cut it. Need to scale back a bit. Need to budget and enjoy the finer less expensive things in life. 

Once piece of advise to younger folk would be to save as much as possible as soon as possible, obviously. I wish I would have maxed out my 401K 10 or 15'years earlier than I did.  But then again the younger folk probably aren't reading this thread. 

 
And downsizing. I can't believe the amount of stuff we've accumulated, unnecessarily. Saw a PBS show on how this is starting to become a fad in Europe. They share things; for example lawn mowers. You only mow you lawn once a week why not share one with 6 of your neighbors?  Not that I'd ever share my lawn mower, but, I don't need half the #### I have. Going to have a huge, tremendous garage sale next summer. Next time I move (hopefully when I retire) half the size of house, two vehicles tops, etc. 

 
And downsizing. I can't believe the amount of stuff we've accumulated, unnecessarily.
Hell yes.  Every time I look downstairs I see more stuff I want to toss out.  My parents have so much crap that I want them to throw away, I just want to stop accumulating useless stuff. 

 
Hell yes.  Every time I look downstairs I see more stuff I want to toss out.  My parents have so much crap that I want them to throw away, I just want to stop accumulating useless stuff. 
I think the name of the documentary was Minimalization, and now I think about it was on amazon prime. The extreme was pretty wacko, but, a lot if really good points compared to the have everything need everything America we live in. 

 
State school is where it's at!!!!1111111111
Speaking of which, has anyone been hired by a state school before?  I've applied for a position a few weeks ago, called yesterday to check on it and was told it's been sent to the HR department.  They hope to call next week.  How long should I expect this process to take?  I know federal hiring here takes a long time - although my application there has been sent to the credentialing authority for approval.  I'm hoping to hear back from the school before being offered the federal job, even if it's a negative.  I'm not sure which job I'd prefer. 

I think generally the 4% falls like everything else in retirement, in the "depends" category.  Depends on your other income streams, depends on you lifestyle, depends on your personal nature.  Nothing is hard and fast in this stuff, you obviously have it figured out.  The 4% rule applies to those with a basic understanding of finances and to those who use financial advisors, like the article stated...that strategy generally works.  It even said that a more aggressive approach can work, just depends. 

I'll have a pension, social security bridge, 401k, a well-funded Roth IRA that I've been investing in since I was in my early 20s, and the sale of a house in a high cost living area.  I'll retire at 57, not sure what percentage I'll take but I'd guess it would be 5% or more for the first few years, then dial it back after that.  You should use more money while you are young, unless of course your goal is to leave a bunch for your heirs.  Again, it just depends on your goals. 
I'm thinking we'll start around 7% in our early 60s, maybe higher before social security kicks in.  Most likely we'll have 2 pensions, tsp and 2 Roths.  Figure with the pensions and ss, we won't be destitute even if we spent everything before our 90s.  Like the article said, after "real" retirement I'll be more concerned about doing things while we're healthy than running out of money. 

 
It is a shade conservative, but not by much for a 30 year retirement.  There are some good variable schemes out there that are a bit more efficient.
But obviously that percentage needs to keep going up right?   otherwise you'll never come close to exhausting your retirement savings.   

 
 Saw a PBS show on how this is starting to become a fad in Europe. They share things; for example lawn mowers. You only mow you lawn once a week why not share one with 6 of your neighbors? 
I could probably list 100 potential problems with this of the top of my head.  In theory it's a great idea to share a ton of different things with the neighbors, especially outdoor/tools kind of stuff,  until you put actual personalities into the equation.

 
Once piece of advise to younger folk would be to save as much as possible as soon as possible, obviously. I wish I would have maxed out my 401K 10 or 15'years earlier than I did.  But then again the younger folk probably aren't reading this thread. 
This x 10000000000

I am 36 now and didn't start going heavy into my 403b until I was about 30, and hadn't started maxing it until last year (which is way sooner than most I suppose, but still).

I have had some younger coworkers in their early-mid 20s who I have talked to about this, and wow, I hope I would not have been that unresponsive if someone had actually talked to me about this stuff back then.  They all basically had the thought process of "you are only young once, gotta enjoy it", and didn't even acknowledge the facts/math of what I was talking about.

 
Just starting to scan this thread and its interesting.  Is there a point where you guys discuss secondary income such as rentals and such?

I have 3 rentals now, a condo, beach house and commercial.  Trying to figure out if I should use the equity I have built up and purchase another and just hold with what I got.

 
Just starting to scan this thread and its interesting.  Is there a point where you guys discuss secondary income such as rentals and such?

I have 3 rentals now, a condo, beach house and commercial.  Trying to figure out if I should use the equity I have built up and purchase another and just hold with what I got.
it's open for discussion.  Like everything else...it depends...lots of factors to consider.  Just to throw a few things out there for discussion...What does the rest of your investment portfolio look like?

With respect to the properties, from a risk mitigation perspective, while they are diverse types of properties, are they all in the same are (i.e. if the economy comes crashing down, will you be really exposed?).

 
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it's open for discussion.  Like everything else...it depends...lots of factors to consider.  Just to throw a few things out there for discussion...What does the rest of your investment portfolio look like?

With respect to the properties, from a risk mitigation perspective, while they are diverse types of properties, are they all in the same are (i.e. if the economy comes crashing down, will you be really exposed?).
I max out my 401k, have some mutual funds and an IRA that I inherited that I can liquidate if needed.  In the past I have invested heavily in the market and just felt in the past few years that I needed to diversify and get into some rentals.  Seems to be working fine and I have to imagine even if the economy crashed the condo would still rent, beach house might be tougher (but the note is not bad on that) but the commercial property might be an issue.  There is a medical practice in it now.

slight side note, I may have discussed this on another thread (dentists maybe) but I have an uncle who never put one dime into his 401k and instead just bought multiple rental properties up and down the east coast.  Fredericksburg, VA, Greenville, NC, Sumter, SC Florence SC and others.  (why he did that in those locations I never understood).  So he had those rentals for years and years and just recently sold all of his properties and basically just cashed out.   Different way of doing things for sure.  He lives in Greenville NC for perspective.  I am sure you can debate a ton on the money he left on the table or what he could have sheltered from tax but it seems he made bank on the appreciation of his houses and the fact that the renters basically paid for them.   The house in Fredericksburg really made him some money.

 
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The 4% rule is one that is discussed a ton on early retirement boards.  Many (like myself) think it is very aggressive for early retirees.  Most prefer a 3%-3.5% model for withdrawal reduction.

Of course the longer you intend to be retired the more conservative you should model.  If you are looking at a 20-25 year type of retirement, then 4% might be ok.

In our first 6 years of retirement we have been running between 2% and 2.5% which feels very safe for us.  This will likely fluctuate up in the future so the more low years we have, it should help balance the bigger years.




5




 
:hifive:

 
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I can't wait to downsize.  With my daughter heading off to college next fall, I am really ready to start the deep planning.

I can't wait to have a smaller house, smaller yard, smaller drive way etc.  All those things seemed important when I first purchased the house but now for the next phase of my life I want to make some real changes.

We are going to start the process by visiting every open house we can find of smaller homes and then we will likely purchase some land and build a custom small house.  While we know this will be more expensive than buying and renovating, I feel like I can get everything exactly as I want it.  And with this being hopefully my last home, I want to build it very specifically in terms of maintenance. 

 
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Is wrong or taboo here to ask what the 2% is off of?  For perspective
The withdrawal rate is related to the % you need from your your retirement portfolio (brokerage accounts, checking and savings, ira's etc) to live on.

The % will be different for many people not only due to the size of your portfolio but the size of your other revenue streams (part time job, social security, pension etc).

 
The withdrawal rate is related to the % you need from your your retirement portfolio (brokerage accounts, checking and savings, ira's etc) to live on.

The % will be different for many people not only due to the size of your portfolio but the size of your other revenue streams (part time job, social security, pension etc).
Thats kindof why I was trying to figure out what your foundation was to get some perspective on the 2%.  I am guessing around 4.5-5 million?

I think its dumb for someone my age (42) to factor in SS into retirement plans.  If I eventually get it then its a bonus now I just chalk it up to money I have to pay the mob basically.  No return on that whatsoever

 
Thats kindof why I was trying to figure out what your foundation was to get some perspective on the 2%.  I am guessing around 4.5-5 million?

I think its dumb for someone my age (42) to factor in SS into retirement plans.  If I eventually get it then its a bonus now I just chalk it up to money I have to pay the mob basically.  No return on that whatsoever
no reason to guess because my situation and someone else's are completely different. 

But safe to say my family is no where near needing to spend $100k per year to live.  You might be forgetting that once you shed a mortgage (which we did many years ago), things get much simpler for some families.

Your opinion on SS is a good one to have.  I am 99.9999% certain you are going to see SS (in some form) in your life time but if you ignore it in your plans, you are creating a more conservative model which I think is great!  Then like you said if the money does come, it can either fix holes in your model you missed or you will just have more revenue per year to play with.

 
The only reason I bring up the guess to the nest egg is because that percentage is a moving target based on a ton of factors.  Just curious what it was in your case.

All of my mortgages/loans will be paid off in 12 years and I could easily see my wife and I spending 100,000/year if we plan to travel like we are.   No offense to you or anyone on this thread but I am not retiring to just cut coupons and skimp on things.  I have a chance now as well as my wife to make some good money and hopefully put a ton a way to retire semi early (damn healthcare costs) and live it up.

 
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The only reason I bring up the guess to the nest egg is because that percentage is a moving target based on a ton of factors.  Just curious what it was in your case.

All of my mortgages/loans will be paid off in 12 years and I could easily see my wife and I spending 100,000/year if we plan to travel like we are.   No offense to you or anyone on this thread but I am not retiring to just cut coupons and skimp on things.  I have a chance now as well as my wife to make some good money and hopefully but a ton a way to retire semi early (damn healthcare costs) and live it up.




 
You got it.  Just keep saving, investing with LT focus, and watch your investment expenses.  Set your living and financial goals and track them.  

Use Vanguard or Fidelity for your non-401K accounts and for your 401K if you can.  

Good luck man.  

 
All of my mortgages/loans will be paid off in 12 years and I could easily see my wife and I spending 100,000/year if we plan to travel like we are.   No offense to you or anyone on this thread but I am not retiring to just cut coupons and skimp on things.  I have a chance now as well as my wife to make some good money and hopefully put a ton a way to retire semi early (damn healthcare costs) and live it up.
yup!  This is why trying to guess is meaningless.   What you want out of retirement is likely different from the next guy and so on.

Our model has us spending different amounts as we transition through various phases of our life.  We knew ahead of time we were likely to spend very little in early retirement just because of life situations of having a child etc.  Our goal was to live the early part of retirement in the exact same way we lived before we retired and we are doing that exactly.  No skimping or changing our lifestyle at all.

The model will change after we downsize the house and eventually add in our travel budget which will increase the amount we spend.  

Then eventually our model will again reduce as we get older and we naturally spend less (outside of health care which is extremely hard to model).

 
^ how are you handling healthcare?
This was talked about earlier in the thread but we planned on a fairly large expenditure for health care but we some how fell into a great situation because we fell into some weird tiny niche of being youngish, being very poor (income wise) and having high means.  So we get health care for an extreme cut rate of what we had initially expected as we did not understand the qualifications for the health care until a retired buddy of mine told me about it.   It looks like from what we can tell our state's qualifications for health care are strongly biased towards income.  They only start to look deeper into retirement accounts when you hit 65.

This is one thing I encourage every early retiree to look into.  Not everyone will be able to take advantage of it because every state and personal situation is different, but it is worth exploring.

How this all plays out in the future is anyone's guess.  Rules could change at any time.  But if worse comes to worst, and we have to fully pay for health care, that will be fine since that was in our initial model to begin with.  We are just taking advantage of what we can now to keep our expenses low since we know there is a good chance they will go up in the future.  Just some risk management.

 
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But obviously that percentage needs to keep going up right?   otherwise you'll never come close to exhausting your retirement savings.   
Complicated subject, but if you're talking starting retirement in 1965 maybe 4% squeezes you a bit.  If you retire in 1979 you can spend like mad and never run out.  Sequence of returns matters a ton.  That's why there are some variable schemes out there that try to help maximize your safe withdrawal percentage.

I can go into it in detail later.  This is a good book on the subject.  There are some good excel calculators (not user friendly, but good) on bogleheads.

 
In our first 6 years of retirement we have been running between 2% and 2.5% which feels very safe for us.  This will likely fluctuate up in the future so the more low years we have, it should help balance the bigger years.
More hookers and blow, man.  Even 3% is super duper safe.

Is wrong or taboo here to ask what the 2% is off of?  For perspective
All depends on expenses and pensions/SS.  Very individualized and his current number really doesn't matter.  All depends on spending.

 
How do you guys factor in inheritance and whatnot?   I stand to come into some pretty good money as it stands now from one side of my family.

 
I max out my 401k, have some mutual funds and an IRA that I inherited that I can liquidate if needed.  In the past I have invested heavily in the market and just felt in the past few years that I needed to diversify and get into some rentals.  Seems to be working fine and I have to imagine even if the economy crashed the condo would still rent, beach house might be tougher (but the note is not bad on that) but the commercial property might be an issue.  There is a medical practice in it now.

slight side note, I may have discussed this on another thread (dentists maybe) but I have an uncle who never put one dime into his 401k and instead just bought multiple rental properties up and down the east coast.  Fredericksburg, VA, Greenville, NC, Sumter, SC Florence SC and others.  (why he did that in those locations I never understood).  So he had those rentals for years and years and just recently sold all of his properties and basically just cashed out.   Different way of doing things for sure.  He lives in Greenville NC for perspective.  I am sure you can debate a ton on the money he left on the table or what he could have sheltered from tax but it seems he made bank on the appreciation of his houses and the fact that the renters basically paid for them.   The house in Fredericksburg really made him some money.
Yeah, there's no doubt there is money to be made in real estate.  While this thread is primarily focused on optimizing traditional investment/retirement vehicles (401k, IRA, 529, etc), there's no single say to skin the cat....and I think adding a more real estate perspective is needed.  A tad selfishly, it's something I'm looking to dabble in soon....I'm in the process of reading the landlord thread and making some notes there prior to posting.

How far out are you til retirement? Is the ultimate goal to carry these rentals into retirement for additional retirement income...or perhaps sell along the way and cash out if the opportunity lends itself?

ETA: just read your additional replies......looks like you've got a pretty good handle on things....especially with the windfall inheritance...maybe you wait til that happens to pick up additional properties :shrug:

 
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Complicated subject, but if you're talking starting retirement in 1965 maybe 4% squeezes you a bit.  If you retire in 1979 you can spend like mad and never run out.  Sequence of returns matters a ton.  That's why there are some variable schemes out there that try to help maximize your safe withdrawal percentage.

I can go into it in detail later.  This is a good book on the subject.  There are some good excel calculators (not user friendly, but good) on bogleheads.




 
I think FireCalc is pretty easy and awesome.  

 
How do you guys factor in inheritance and whatnot?   I stand to come into some pretty good money as it stands now from one side of my family.
I leave it out because of the timing problem.  I know we are getting a decent amount from my parents will but it is almost impossible to predict when we are going to get it.

But I am always aware of it at the same time.  

You could always be very conservative and add it to your model after you are sure all will have past away (give them long lives).

 
Yeah, there's no doubt there is money to be made in real estate.  While this thread is primarily focused on optimizing traditional investment/retirement vehicles (401k, IRA, 529, etc), there's no single say to skin the cat....and I think adding a more real estate perspective is needed.  A tad selfishly, it's something I'm looking to dabble in soon....I'm in the process of reading the landlord thread and making some notes there prior to posting.

How far out are you til retirement? Is the ultimate goal to carry these rentals into retirement for additional retirement income...or perhaps sell along the way and cash out if the opportunity lends itself?
I am about 15 years out realistically as I am still "young".  I most def will be counting on the rental income as a source of funds for retirement and its also a part time job being the landlord and fixer of these places. 

I probably will sell the commercial building if the Practice in it now wants to buy it.  It buy far is the biggest headache and expense. 

 
How do you guys factor in inheritance and whatnot?   I stand to come into some pretty good money as it stands now from one side of my family.
You just add it in when you estimated you will get it.




 
I don't think I'd add it in until it was securely in my sweaty Trumphands™




 
Agree - I wouldn't either.  Kind of like SS - just a sweet, sweet extra.  (Side note:  actually thinking of delaying my SS a bit - where before I was definitely hitting it at 62)

I sure as hell wouldn't use it as an excuse to spend more lavishly now.  Don't do that panther.

 
I am about 15 years out realistically as I am still "young".  I most def will be counting on the rental income as a source of funds for retirement and its also a part time job being the landlord and fixer of these places. 

I probably will sell the commercial building if the Practice in it now wants to buy it.  It buy far is the biggest headache and expense. 
ETA: just read your additional replies......looks like you've got a pretty good handle on things....especially with the windfall inheritance...maybe you wait til that happens to pick up additional properties  :shrug:

 

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