jazz12pg
Young MC Fan
With apologies to Dodds 
Deep leagues (aka “hard-core” or “max” leagues) often get overlooked by the fantasy magazines and web sites. Since they’re a very small percentage of the fantasy football leagues out there, the focus is usually on the more prevalent league sizes and formats. But the amount of die-hards out there looking for a more challenging fantasy football experience and the chance to flex their football knowledge in a re-draft or non-dynasty format is starting to grow. In my annual search through the Yahoo public leagues for a league as close to my main league so that I could “practice” my draft strategy and compile mock results, I found many more 20 team leagues than in years past. And with 8 years of experience in very competitive hard-core leagues, I’m going to try and impart that knowledge to the others out there that usually are left out when it comes to the perfect draft articles.
Let's have the perfect draft.
For this article, I’m going to focus more on the strategy of drafting in a deep league and building a successful team than on the specific players. I’ll leave the projections and such to the experts at Footballguys.com, and you can apply them accordingly. If you’ve got the ambition to dive into a deep league, I’m going to assume you’re not a fantasy football novice and will have no problem converting and altering things like rankings, ADP and VBD that are usually in the context of a 12 team league. And if you’re just a deep league veteran looking to compare notes, you’ll already be used to putting those types of things in the context of your own league.
This article assumes a 20 team league using performance scoring that starts 1 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DEF (20 man rosters) or 5 IDP (25 man rosters).
Quarterbacks
Deep leagues are different in many ways to the traditional 12 and 14 team leagues. But one area where it is not is at the QB position, as far as a starting QB is concerned. In 20 team deep leagues, there’s really an even greater importance on the famed RB position so the importance of a QB is downgraded. Grabbing a value-pick at QB in the 6th through 9th rounds can still yield a solid team. Keep in mind, those rounds in a deep league are the equivalent to the 8th through 15th rounds in a 12 team league. Putting aside the mental aspect of drafting your first, and perhaps only, QB at pick 100 through 180 can be very challenging if you are new to a deep league format. But note that your draft is probably only 25% of the way complete when this window begins, so relative to a 12 x 16 league when picking a QB in the 5th round (31% into the draft) is normal, it’s not that strange of a concept.
In a deep league, your goal should be to obtain a consistent producer that is likely to stay healthy and keep his job the whole season. Even if being consistent means consistently getting you only 8 points a week. Since it’s hard to find guys that fit the aforementioned criteria in the lowest tier of QBs, you also do not want to neglect the position entirely. As pointed out by many experts this pre-season, the depth at QB is as rich as it ever has been for that middle group of QBs that are not clear cut top tier and not obvious low-tier trash. Players like Brees, Leftwich and McNair are going as low as QB20, so even if you are the last team in your league to pick a starting QB you can still come away with some great value.
As far as beyond the starting QB slot, with 32 NFL teams and 20 fantasy teams in your league, at least 8 teams are going to be without a back-up QB for the bye week. But that’s assuming all 32 teams have only 1 starting QB for the season, which common sense tells us is not going to be the case. The best strategy for a back-up QB in a deep league is to at least grab your starting QB’s clear handcuff. And if that’s going to be your focus, rather than trying to be one of the few teams with 2 starting QBs, then you will probably also want to try and pick a duo from an effective offensive team. This way, if the starter goes down, you’re still in a good position to get decent production from his back-up. The Arizona or Detroit QBs are a good example of a target for this strategy.
So where does that leave the bye week? Well, if you thought just drafting a QB after 170 players are off the board was radical, hold onto your seat. In a deep league, going without a clear starting QB for one week is a very reasonable play. With the amount of offensive points available from the other 6 to 8 offensive positions (all of which are likely very good producers because you passed on QBs to take those players while your opponents did not) getting zero instead of 8 from that position will often times not be the difference in your game. Now, as reasonable as the option is, you still want to only use it as a last resort.
Ahead of going into battle with Mr. “Empty” as your first starting roster spot, you will want to try some other things like drafting a # 2 QB late in the draft that has a good chance to start a few games during the year, either because of injury or opportunity. Even if that player isn’t the starting QB that week your starter is on bye, the chance that he might get into the game at some point is still a better prospect than a guaranteed zero. And, obviously, other options would include committing to scouring the free agent pool during the season for those same types of # 2 QBs, using your waiver position to snag recently promoted starters or try to swing a trade for the “nomad” QBs that seem to emerge and get passed around in deep leagues on a weekly basis. But be careful who you enlist in this role. Just throwing a random warm body in there can backfire if the # 2 isn’t seasoned or just plain stinks (Koy Detmer, as an example from years past) and your league awards negative points for sacks, fumbles and interceptions.
So let the other owners chase the big name QBs in the early rounds of your draft while you focus on the other skill positions. Then, when you’ve collected as much value as possible at those positions, make your move for a QB that will represent value as well as offer you, at the very least, consistent production from that roster spot the entire season.
Running Backs
Yes, RBs are even more important in a deep league than a traditional league. With the usual RBBC and bottom of the barrel starters, there are barely 20 solid RBs out there so with 19 other teams trying to build a good ground attack, getting 2 of those top 20 is a major key to having the perfect draft. Obstacles to this will, of course, be draft position.
If you’re drafting in the top 5 you are looking at 30 – 38 picks before your second pick, so it may be tempting at that point to throw your hands up in the air after seeing 20 or more RBs fly off the board and go for a WR with your second pick. Unless there’s still a top 3, 4 or 5 WR out there and/or your league is PPR, digging for RB value is still the preferred pick here. If you are picking this late in round 2, your 3rd round pick is not too far behind in a snake draft so the caliber of WRs still left for you in Round 2 will likely still be there in a few more picks. So use your research and knowledge to grab someone like Droughns, Dillon, Rhodes or Foster. Later in the draft their back-up might be able to be nabbed, or if you go with a RBBC guy like Mike Bell, grabbing their other half a few rounds later with the intention of starting both (in a 3 start RB league) is a viable option. With a stud or near-stud RB in the 1st followed by one of the aforementioned combinations will still give you a leg up on other owners that are starting one mediocre back and two back-ups or FBs. The RB, RB, RB strategy should also be considered here. Judging by ADPs so far, it’s entirely possible to wind up with 3 RBs in the first 45 picks that will be the likely go to guys for their teams. Just like with QBs, WR value always emerges in a deep league and a RB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/QB draft in the first 6 rounds can land you a very solid team to build upon.
If you are drafting mid to late 1st round, you’re in a much better position to grab two RBs among guys like Jordan, Cadillac, Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis, etc. Then when the draft comes back to you in rounds 3 and 4, you can focus on your WRs if your best judgment tells you none of the RB30 – RB35 are worth taking a chance on. Remember, the focus should be on emerging with 2 solid producing backs and building around them. In deep leagues, there’s more of an opportunity to draft late and stash guys that could have a shot later in the year and you could wind up with 3 solid RBs down the stretch.
Also, in a deep league, don’t discount the value of FBs or goal line backs. Even more so in PPR leagues, those guys that catch 2 or 3 balls a game for only 10-15 yards, or that score a 1 yard TD every other week, can still give you good production from that last RB slot if you’re starting 3 RBs. In that same vein, deep leagues with return yardage points will yield many good RB options beyond the top 25 starting RBs in the NFL. A running back that gets 3 or 4 points a week in a 12 team league is barely worth a roster spot, but in a deep league, these guys are integral pieces to building an overall solid contribution from your RB corps on a weekly basis.
What happens if you can’t, or don’t draft 2 RBs early? Well, you’re behind the 8-ball a tad but recovering is still possible. Focusing on the best of the best from the returners, FBs and goal-line backs later in the draft can help as well as the late round fliers on guys like Wali Lundy or Jerious Norwood. Staying on top of the RB situations in the NFL and utilizing free agency and waivers are also going to be important tasks for you.
Now, let’s talk handcuffs. If you’re one of the lucky ones (or unlucky ones, depending on your point of view from an overall draft perspective) that drafts one of the “Big 3” RBs, your handcuff strategy is going to be slightly different than anyone else. Investing such a high pick in a stud player and adjusting to the subsequent draft positions that come along with it, are going to mean you better get the most production possible from that pick. Having Alexander go out with a torn MCL (due to the Madden jinx, of course) in Week 2 is going to be devastating to your deep league team if you already don’t have that second solid starting RB on your roster. So drafting Bennett, Turner or Morris in the 6th or 7th round is essential. You want to be sure to get these guys before another team, light on RBs starts making their stash picks. Fortunately, unlike last year with LJ, the back-ups to the “Big 3” aren’t in danger of going early unless you are in a league with multiple sharks that will draft defensively at times or want to hold certain handcuffs hostage. But after getting your RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, QB in the first 5 rounds, start looking to target your handcuff. If you have a swing pick coming up it’s a reasonable amount of risk to pick another starting WR in the 6th if the value is there and nabbing your handcuff in the 7th.
If you’re drafting most other backs that don’t have high profile back-ups or that have a handcuff that will likely go higher than you can afford to take them because they will see productive time regardless of the health of the starting RB (Cadillac an example of the former and Portis/Duckett an example of the latter) you can usually wait until you’ve filled out your starting skill positions before turning an eye toward your handcuffs. I would also not be adverse to drafting a second starting QB ahead of any handcuffs in this situation, if a value pick is still on the board.
In summary, try to come away with at least 2 solid RBs in the early rounds, handcuff any stud RBs because the likelihood they will be in the FA pool after a deep league draft is slim and know your league’s scoring system to take advantage of valuable contributors who may be return specialists, goal-line backs or fullbacks that are consistently involved in their team’s offense.
Wide Receivers
In a deep league, I always like to point out the simple fact that 64 “starting” WRs will exist while there are only 32 “starting” RBs. The ratio in a 20 team will mean that you are likely to get at least 3 starting WRs but could only wind up with 1 starting RB. All else aside, the importance of RBs over WRs should be obvious, PPR league or not. With that said, WRs still are an important part of your team and how or when you draft them will impact whether or not you have the perfect draft.
For deep leagues, you need to study depth charts for WRs more than any other position. Slot receivers in an offense that often lines up in 3-WR formations can be very valuable to you as your 3rd or 4th starter. And 4th and 5th string WRs that return punts, kicks or both, when return yards are in play, can be a huge asset to your line-up.
So what should your draft plan be for wide outs? One word: value. Other than the rare chance that someone like Terrell Owens falls really low, just put out of your head right now any notion of having one of the “top” receivers. WR15 and beyond are who you will be getting better acquainted with during the next 17 weeks. There are more than enough middle tier # 1 WRs and valuable # 2’s out there in the 3rd through 6th rounds of your deep league draft to be able to give you a combined, competitive contribution each week. Some examples of # 1 WRs that can be had in those rounds are Driver, Mason and Andre Johnson. And the # 2’s out there that are just as good as some teams # 1 and/or an injury away from getting vaulted to the top of the heap (Remember Muhammad in ’04, Driver in ’05?) include Houshmandzadeh, Stallworth and Bruce.
Also, unlike with running backs, there are always, always, always the steady types of WRs out there that just go out and put up solid numbers but get little attention on draft day because they aren’t big names playing in big cities. I’m sure you’ve had one or two of these guys on your roster recently and were pleasantly surprised by their output compared to when they were drafted, so why not build a starting squad with mostly those players and use the early rounds to bolster your running game? A sampling of those types of WRs: Rod Smith, Eddie Kennison, Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Keenan McCardell, Armani Toomer, Brandon Stokely, etc. Notice how some of those names were even capable of “breaking out” occasionally for a season and becoming fantasy gold. So stacking your roster with those types not only gives you, at the very least, the benefit of decent performance but also affords you the chance of having one or two of them the year they capture that lightning in a bottle.
Now, what if you do get the opportunity to take someone like Fitzgerald or Moss late in the 2nd round and you really see zero value among the remaining RBs? Or if you just can’t get over the stigma of not targeting at least one “name” WR? Again, you aren’t going to blow your whole season by pulling the trigger, but what you do, or don’t do, after that pick could ultimately lead to you sitting out the playoffs come December. If you’ve got a stud WR in hand, resist the urge to continue to stock-pile more unless you are in a PPR league (which, of course, makes it very unlikely you would even be in a position to stockpile top WRs.)
Although the prospect of cornering the market to later trade for RBs sounds promising, in deep leagues it just doesn’t happen. There will rarely be a team in your league that has a plethora of RBs to put on the block for one of your prized wide-outs. And the teams that do wind up with that luxury usually do so due to some crafted luck (For example, taking a chance on the dark horse in a RBBC that emerges as the clear #1) so they already have a serviceable stock of WRs because they didn’t exactly take RBs in the first 4 rounds. Those teams will also likely be rolling through the wins each week and be hard to convince they need to upgrade at WR. What’s left is 15-18 more teams just like yourself, that are all looking for some help at RB so your dream team of WRs is probably staying put and you’re left rolling the dice that they can carry you and your 3rd down RB and 2 FBs every week. You will also enjoy the opportunity to decline offers like Antwain Smith for Hines Ward on a daily basis.
WR is also a volatile position, depending on what team the offense is playing, what their game plan is for that game, etc. it’s hard to depend on big numbers every game from a WR. Steve Smith, last year’s # 1 fantasy football WR, had 4 games with 34 or less yards and no touchdowns. That’s 25% of the season where he was barely a contributor to his fantasy owner’s box score. Putting your team in those hands, three-fold, is going to net you failure more often than success.
Focus on the tremendous amount of value that exists past the first 15 WRs, year in and year out, to help build a team that will contend and separate itself from most of the other 19 teams in your league. In some cases, a savvy owner can also parlay a dearth of consistent performers off to a solid start into taking a risk by acquiring an under-performing preseason stud that is off to a slow start and has his owner in panic mode after spending a 2nd or 3rd rounder on him.
Tight Ends
The Tight End position, in a deep league with no flex positions, can be quite the bother. On one hand, you could point to them being more important than a RB because, while both only have 32 “starters” in the NFL, the amount of solid TEs among those 32 is far less than solid RBs. On the other hand, most leagues will only need to start 1 TE while starting at least 2 RBs so the percent of overall roster importance (40 spots spread among 20 solid RBs versus 20 spots spread among 10 TEs) could be interpreted as RBs being twice as important. So, what’s an owner to do? Well, in the case of TEs it’s actually beneficial to apply the same strategy to a deep league as you would in a 12 or 14 team league. Meaning, after the first few are off the board, there’s not going to be much difference among the rest so the importance should be placed on picking someone in the TE6 to TE20 group that has good value and is in a favorable position to be a decent fantasy producer.
Treating the clear-cut, best 3 or 4 TEs the same as you would the top 15 WRs, and lumping them all together as “receivers” is also a very good approach in deep leagues. That also means you’ll be adopting the same philosophy that those top TEs are going to be out of your league and off your target list. In addition, you will be targeting some value TEs that have a history of solid, but under-the-radar production like Dallas Clark or Jermaine Wiggins. You’ll also want to decide which type of TE you want to target or will be able to live with on a week to week basis. Do you want someone that gets a catch or three for a handful of yards every week (Putzier) without little chance at a touchdown, or do you want to go after the guys that could go two weeks without a catch but get two touchdowns the week they finally do get the ball (Heath Miller?)
TEs can also be looked at as the “pick your poison” roster spot. If you’re going to be weak somewhere, at least try to have some semblance of control over where and how you are weak. By taking a hit at a position where 50-75% of the league is also going to be weak and that is only 1/7th or 1/9th of your starting skill positions, at the cost of improving those other positions, is a very reasonable strategy.
Regardless, it is advisable in a deep league to at least draft 2 TEs, or scrounge up a second one shortly after the draft. Besides being helpful for your bye week or in case of injury, you’re also doubling your chances that you landed one of the handful of middle of the road or unknown TEs that emerge as surprises every year. But in order to make sure you’re putting out the best talent available at your other skill positions, don’t draft that first one until you have at least filled your starting QB and RB slots as well as at least 2 of your WR slots. By that time in the draft there should still be some decent value picks like Ben Troupe or Bubba Franks available. In conjunction with a later round pick of someone like Marcedes Lewis, Zach Hilton or Leonard Pope, your TE position will be serviceable, at minimum.
Kickers
Deep leagues and kickers are always interesting. The same predicament exists with them as with QBs or even DEFs because there are only 32 of them to go around, so 40% of the league is probably left holding an empty slot during their kicker’s bye week. But I’m here to tell you that in 8 seasons in a 20 team league, I have never drafted two kickers and have never lost a game because of it. I either was able to get one thrown in as part of a mid-season trade with a team that already used their spare during a bye week, picked one up on waivers or FA due to the inevitable kicker turn-over that teams experience during the season and once even went into battle without one. So unless you are really late into your draft and have already stock piled depth at every other skill position with a few kickers still on the board, don’t make it a priority to acquire more than one.
Now, the when and who. Anything earlier than the 10th round is absurd in a deep league and the optimal place to take one is the 12th to 14th round after you’ve got at least 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 1 RB handcuff, 4 WR and 1 TE. As for the who, don’t discount things like indoor kickers, age or experience. For example, if you’ve got two 10+ year veteran kickers you’re trying to decide on, and one plays outdoors and the other indoors, the indoor kicker should get the edge. But, essentially, your strategy should be to target a kicker that will get plenty of opportunity, is in a good situation and isn’t at risk of losing his job. You will still run into the instances where a kicker goes cold all of a sudden and gets released after many years of service for the team, as kicking tolerance is very fickle among coaches and general managers. But if you’re going to have that happen, it’s much better to have it occur to the kicker position on your roster where it’s unlikely someone else already has his eventual replacement on their roster or it’s easy to scoop up another kicker starting in the NFL, even in a deep league.
Defenses/IDP
It’s a widely believed theory of fantasy football that picking a defense is just a shade above random. So the importance of a defense is still not that great, even in a deep league where, again, some teams will wind up with only one during the draft. I’m not big on taking specific defenses or trying to predict which team will be a top fantasy scorer, so I recommend using data, analysis, projections or recommendations from a trusted source like footballguys.com and rolling the dice by taking the best available according to that list when the time comes for a defense. And when is that time? After your kicker, at the very least, and ideally after about 8-10 other defenses are off the board.
As far as drafting one versus two, apply most of the same logic as with kickers: if there’s still a few on the board when you’re running out of offensive targets, grab a second. Especially if your first DEF has an early bye week. Otherwise, the chances are pretty good you’ll be able to pick one up somehow whether it is a trade throw-in or a FA pick-up. Some leagues can get stingy and you may have to face the reality of going without one for a week. That’s not preferable, but also not something that is impossible to recover from. If you really did miss the boat on a second DEF in a deep league, it’s usually because you kept finding value in the late rounds at the skill positions, which should put you in a nice position regardless.
If your deep league includes IDP, things are only slightly different. There will never be a shortage of IDPs when you have bye weeks or poor performers, yet the approach to IDPs should be the same as a team DEF: low priority. With 11 starters multiplied by 32 teams there are at least 352 IDPs out there for the picking that will see a lot of playing time. Granted, there’s a bit of a significant difference between the # 1 ranked IDP and the 352nd, but even if your league starts as many as 8 IDPs you’re still working with the top 50% of those IDPs.
My suggested approach is to think of most IDPs as disposable. Don’t use valuable roster space in a deep league for bench IDPs. If you start 5 IDPs, draft the 5 best IDPs possible near the end of your draft and wait until the first bye week before deciding if trading or cutting a skill position player is worth benching an IDP while on bye and picking up a temporary replacement. If that player is only an average performer, seriously consider dropping him for the week and picking the same player up a week later if you really like them, but chances are you’ll be able to pick up a comparable player or even someone who is having a better season altogether.
Now, if you have an IDP stud according to your league scoring you can do what’s necessary to keep them on your roster all year long. Along with that, if your league gives points for return yardage, there are a fair amount of DBs that would have value to hold onto all year as they can get you points from both sides of the ball.
As for what to target for your 5 IDPs in the draft, a good mix is to get at least 2 DBs that either have a nose for INTs or are playing opposite a “shut down” corner on the same team, 2 LBs that are usually among the tackle leaders or playing for a team that will be playing a lot of defense and one DL that has sack potential.
Keep in mind, although IDPs should be a low priority, they shouldn’t exactly be an afterthought either. But a significant amount of owners will do little to no research or rankings and assume they can go off name recognition while drafting. But when it comes to IDPs, the biggest names are not always good fantasy performers. Shut down corners can be a good example of players people will recognize as good, but on the fantasy field they don’t produce as much as the corner on the other side of the field where the ball is usually going to in an attempt to avoid the better corner giving the shut down corner less chances at tackles and INTs. So put some time into ranking or researching projections from good fantasy football resources as well as keeping up on depth charts right until the draft so you can draft a core of IDPs just as good, if not better, at the end of your draft than most of the teams in your league.
Conclusion
Deep leagues are challenging to even the most skilled fantasy football player and shouldn’t be taken lightly. The seemingly small nuances of a deep league need to be fully understood and prepared for if you want to give yourself the best chance at success. Hopefully this guide helps contribute to that process as it prepares you for having the perfect draft.
Deep leagues (aka “hard-core” or “max” leagues) often get overlooked by the fantasy magazines and web sites. Since they’re a very small percentage of the fantasy football leagues out there, the focus is usually on the more prevalent league sizes and formats. But the amount of die-hards out there looking for a more challenging fantasy football experience and the chance to flex their football knowledge in a re-draft or non-dynasty format is starting to grow. In my annual search through the Yahoo public leagues for a league as close to my main league so that I could “practice” my draft strategy and compile mock results, I found many more 20 team leagues than in years past. And with 8 years of experience in very competitive hard-core leagues, I’m going to try and impart that knowledge to the others out there that usually are left out when it comes to the perfect draft articles.
Let's have the perfect draft.
For this article, I’m going to focus more on the strategy of drafting in a deep league and building a successful team than on the specific players. I’ll leave the projections and such to the experts at Footballguys.com, and you can apply them accordingly. If you’ve got the ambition to dive into a deep league, I’m going to assume you’re not a fantasy football novice and will have no problem converting and altering things like rankings, ADP and VBD that are usually in the context of a 12 team league. And if you’re just a deep league veteran looking to compare notes, you’ll already be used to putting those types of things in the context of your own league.
This article assumes a 20 team league using performance scoring that starts 1 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 1 PK and 1 DEF (20 man rosters) or 5 IDP (25 man rosters).
Quarterbacks
Deep leagues are different in many ways to the traditional 12 and 14 team leagues. But one area where it is not is at the QB position, as far as a starting QB is concerned. In 20 team deep leagues, there’s really an even greater importance on the famed RB position so the importance of a QB is downgraded. Grabbing a value-pick at QB in the 6th through 9th rounds can still yield a solid team. Keep in mind, those rounds in a deep league are the equivalent to the 8th through 15th rounds in a 12 team league. Putting aside the mental aspect of drafting your first, and perhaps only, QB at pick 100 through 180 can be very challenging if you are new to a deep league format. But note that your draft is probably only 25% of the way complete when this window begins, so relative to a 12 x 16 league when picking a QB in the 5th round (31% into the draft) is normal, it’s not that strange of a concept.
In a deep league, your goal should be to obtain a consistent producer that is likely to stay healthy and keep his job the whole season. Even if being consistent means consistently getting you only 8 points a week. Since it’s hard to find guys that fit the aforementioned criteria in the lowest tier of QBs, you also do not want to neglect the position entirely. As pointed out by many experts this pre-season, the depth at QB is as rich as it ever has been for that middle group of QBs that are not clear cut top tier and not obvious low-tier trash. Players like Brees, Leftwich and McNair are going as low as QB20, so even if you are the last team in your league to pick a starting QB you can still come away with some great value.
As far as beyond the starting QB slot, with 32 NFL teams and 20 fantasy teams in your league, at least 8 teams are going to be without a back-up QB for the bye week. But that’s assuming all 32 teams have only 1 starting QB for the season, which common sense tells us is not going to be the case. The best strategy for a back-up QB in a deep league is to at least grab your starting QB’s clear handcuff. And if that’s going to be your focus, rather than trying to be one of the few teams with 2 starting QBs, then you will probably also want to try and pick a duo from an effective offensive team. This way, if the starter goes down, you’re still in a good position to get decent production from his back-up. The Arizona or Detroit QBs are a good example of a target for this strategy.
So where does that leave the bye week? Well, if you thought just drafting a QB after 170 players are off the board was radical, hold onto your seat. In a deep league, going without a clear starting QB for one week is a very reasonable play. With the amount of offensive points available from the other 6 to 8 offensive positions (all of which are likely very good producers because you passed on QBs to take those players while your opponents did not) getting zero instead of 8 from that position will often times not be the difference in your game. Now, as reasonable as the option is, you still want to only use it as a last resort.
Ahead of going into battle with Mr. “Empty” as your first starting roster spot, you will want to try some other things like drafting a # 2 QB late in the draft that has a good chance to start a few games during the year, either because of injury or opportunity. Even if that player isn’t the starting QB that week your starter is on bye, the chance that he might get into the game at some point is still a better prospect than a guaranteed zero. And, obviously, other options would include committing to scouring the free agent pool during the season for those same types of # 2 QBs, using your waiver position to snag recently promoted starters or try to swing a trade for the “nomad” QBs that seem to emerge and get passed around in deep leagues on a weekly basis. But be careful who you enlist in this role. Just throwing a random warm body in there can backfire if the # 2 isn’t seasoned or just plain stinks (Koy Detmer, as an example from years past) and your league awards negative points for sacks, fumbles and interceptions.
So let the other owners chase the big name QBs in the early rounds of your draft while you focus on the other skill positions. Then, when you’ve collected as much value as possible at those positions, make your move for a QB that will represent value as well as offer you, at the very least, consistent production from that roster spot the entire season.
Running Backs
Yes, RBs are even more important in a deep league than a traditional league. With the usual RBBC and bottom of the barrel starters, there are barely 20 solid RBs out there so with 19 other teams trying to build a good ground attack, getting 2 of those top 20 is a major key to having the perfect draft. Obstacles to this will, of course, be draft position.
If you’re drafting in the top 5 you are looking at 30 – 38 picks before your second pick, so it may be tempting at that point to throw your hands up in the air after seeing 20 or more RBs fly off the board and go for a WR with your second pick. Unless there’s still a top 3, 4 or 5 WR out there and/or your league is PPR, digging for RB value is still the preferred pick here. If you are picking this late in round 2, your 3rd round pick is not too far behind in a snake draft so the caliber of WRs still left for you in Round 2 will likely still be there in a few more picks. So use your research and knowledge to grab someone like Droughns, Dillon, Rhodes or Foster. Later in the draft their back-up might be able to be nabbed, or if you go with a RBBC guy like Mike Bell, grabbing their other half a few rounds later with the intention of starting both (in a 3 start RB league) is a viable option. With a stud or near-stud RB in the 1st followed by one of the aforementioned combinations will still give you a leg up on other owners that are starting one mediocre back and two back-ups or FBs. The RB, RB, RB strategy should also be considered here. Judging by ADPs so far, it’s entirely possible to wind up with 3 RBs in the first 45 picks that will be the likely go to guys for their teams. Just like with QBs, WR value always emerges in a deep league and a RB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/QB draft in the first 6 rounds can land you a very solid team to build upon.
If you are drafting mid to late 1st round, you’re in a much better position to grab two RBs among guys like Jordan, Cadillac, Julius Jones, Jamal Lewis, etc. Then when the draft comes back to you in rounds 3 and 4, you can focus on your WRs if your best judgment tells you none of the RB30 – RB35 are worth taking a chance on. Remember, the focus should be on emerging with 2 solid producing backs and building around them. In deep leagues, there’s more of an opportunity to draft late and stash guys that could have a shot later in the year and you could wind up with 3 solid RBs down the stretch.
Also, in a deep league, don’t discount the value of FBs or goal line backs. Even more so in PPR leagues, those guys that catch 2 or 3 balls a game for only 10-15 yards, or that score a 1 yard TD every other week, can still give you good production from that last RB slot if you’re starting 3 RBs. In that same vein, deep leagues with return yardage points will yield many good RB options beyond the top 25 starting RBs in the NFL. A running back that gets 3 or 4 points a week in a 12 team league is barely worth a roster spot, but in a deep league, these guys are integral pieces to building an overall solid contribution from your RB corps on a weekly basis.
What happens if you can’t, or don’t draft 2 RBs early? Well, you’re behind the 8-ball a tad but recovering is still possible. Focusing on the best of the best from the returners, FBs and goal-line backs later in the draft can help as well as the late round fliers on guys like Wali Lundy or Jerious Norwood. Staying on top of the RB situations in the NFL and utilizing free agency and waivers are also going to be important tasks for you.
Now, let’s talk handcuffs. If you’re one of the lucky ones (or unlucky ones, depending on your point of view from an overall draft perspective) that drafts one of the “Big 3” RBs, your handcuff strategy is going to be slightly different than anyone else. Investing such a high pick in a stud player and adjusting to the subsequent draft positions that come along with it, are going to mean you better get the most production possible from that pick. Having Alexander go out with a torn MCL (due to the Madden jinx, of course) in Week 2 is going to be devastating to your deep league team if you already don’t have that second solid starting RB on your roster. So drafting Bennett, Turner or Morris in the 6th or 7th round is essential. You want to be sure to get these guys before another team, light on RBs starts making their stash picks. Fortunately, unlike last year with LJ, the back-ups to the “Big 3” aren’t in danger of going early unless you are in a league with multiple sharks that will draft defensively at times or want to hold certain handcuffs hostage. But after getting your RB, RB, RB/WR, WR, QB in the first 5 rounds, start looking to target your handcuff. If you have a swing pick coming up it’s a reasonable amount of risk to pick another starting WR in the 6th if the value is there and nabbing your handcuff in the 7th.
If you’re drafting most other backs that don’t have high profile back-ups or that have a handcuff that will likely go higher than you can afford to take them because they will see productive time regardless of the health of the starting RB (Cadillac an example of the former and Portis/Duckett an example of the latter) you can usually wait until you’ve filled out your starting skill positions before turning an eye toward your handcuffs. I would also not be adverse to drafting a second starting QB ahead of any handcuffs in this situation, if a value pick is still on the board.
In summary, try to come away with at least 2 solid RBs in the early rounds, handcuff any stud RBs because the likelihood they will be in the FA pool after a deep league draft is slim and know your league’s scoring system to take advantage of valuable contributors who may be return specialists, goal-line backs or fullbacks that are consistently involved in their team’s offense.
Wide Receivers
In a deep league, I always like to point out the simple fact that 64 “starting” WRs will exist while there are only 32 “starting” RBs. The ratio in a 20 team will mean that you are likely to get at least 3 starting WRs but could only wind up with 1 starting RB. All else aside, the importance of RBs over WRs should be obvious, PPR league or not. With that said, WRs still are an important part of your team and how or when you draft them will impact whether or not you have the perfect draft.
For deep leagues, you need to study depth charts for WRs more than any other position. Slot receivers in an offense that often lines up in 3-WR formations can be very valuable to you as your 3rd or 4th starter. And 4th and 5th string WRs that return punts, kicks or both, when return yards are in play, can be a huge asset to your line-up.
So what should your draft plan be for wide outs? One word: value. Other than the rare chance that someone like Terrell Owens falls really low, just put out of your head right now any notion of having one of the “top” receivers. WR15 and beyond are who you will be getting better acquainted with during the next 17 weeks. There are more than enough middle tier # 1 WRs and valuable # 2’s out there in the 3rd through 6th rounds of your deep league draft to be able to give you a combined, competitive contribution each week. Some examples of # 1 WRs that can be had in those rounds are Driver, Mason and Andre Johnson. And the # 2’s out there that are just as good as some teams # 1 and/or an injury away from getting vaulted to the top of the heap (Remember Muhammad in ’04, Driver in ’05?) include Houshmandzadeh, Stallworth and Bruce.
Also, unlike with running backs, there are always, always, always the steady types of WRs out there that just go out and put up solid numbers but get little attention on draft day because they aren’t big names playing in big cities. I’m sure you’ve had one or two of these guys on your roster recently and were pleasantly surprised by their output compared to when they were drafted, so why not build a starting squad with mostly those players and use the early rounds to bolster your running game? A sampling of those types of WRs: Rod Smith, Eddie Kennison, Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway, Keenan McCardell, Armani Toomer, Brandon Stokely, etc. Notice how some of those names were even capable of “breaking out” occasionally for a season and becoming fantasy gold. So stacking your roster with those types not only gives you, at the very least, the benefit of decent performance but also affords you the chance of having one or two of them the year they capture that lightning in a bottle.
Now, what if you do get the opportunity to take someone like Fitzgerald or Moss late in the 2nd round and you really see zero value among the remaining RBs? Or if you just can’t get over the stigma of not targeting at least one “name” WR? Again, you aren’t going to blow your whole season by pulling the trigger, but what you do, or don’t do, after that pick could ultimately lead to you sitting out the playoffs come December. If you’ve got a stud WR in hand, resist the urge to continue to stock-pile more unless you are in a PPR league (which, of course, makes it very unlikely you would even be in a position to stockpile top WRs.)
Although the prospect of cornering the market to later trade for RBs sounds promising, in deep leagues it just doesn’t happen. There will rarely be a team in your league that has a plethora of RBs to put on the block for one of your prized wide-outs. And the teams that do wind up with that luxury usually do so due to some crafted luck (For example, taking a chance on the dark horse in a RBBC that emerges as the clear #1) so they already have a serviceable stock of WRs because they didn’t exactly take RBs in the first 4 rounds. Those teams will also likely be rolling through the wins each week and be hard to convince they need to upgrade at WR. What’s left is 15-18 more teams just like yourself, that are all looking for some help at RB so your dream team of WRs is probably staying put and you’re left rolling the dice that they can carry you and your 3rd down RB and 2 FBs every week. You will also enjoy the opportunity to decline offers like Antwain Smith for Hines Ward on a daily basis.
WR is also a volatile position, depending on what team the offense is playing, what their game plan is for that game, etc. it’s hard to depend on big numbers every game from a WR. Steve Smith, last year’s # 1 fantasy football WR, had 4 games with 34 or less yards and no touchdowns. That’s 25% of the season where he was barely a contributor to his fantasy owner’s box score. Putting your team in those hands, three-fold, is going to net you failure more often than success.
Focus on the tremendous amount of value that exists past the first 15 WRs, year in and year out, to help build a team that will contend and separate itself from most of the other 19 teams in your league. In some cases, a savvy owner can also parlay a dearth of consistent performers off to a solid start into taking a risk by acquiring an under-performing preseason stud that is off to a slow start and has his owner in panic mode after spending a 2nd or 3rd rounder on him.
Tight Ends
The Tight End position, in a deep league with no flex positions, can be quite the bother. On one hand, you could point to them being more important than a RB because, while both only have 32 “starters” in the NFL, the amount of solid TEs among those 32 is far less than solid RBs. On the other hand, most leagues will only need to start 1 TE while starting at least 2 RBs so the percent of overall roster importance (40 spots spread among 20 solid RBs versus 20 spots spread among 10 TEs) could be interpreted as RBs being twice as important. So, what’s an owner to do? Well, in the case of TEs it’s actually beneficial to apply the same strategy to a deep league as you would in a 12 or 14 team league. Meaning, after the first few are off the board, there’s not going to be much difference among the rest so the importance should be placed on picking someone in the TE6 to TE20 group that has good value and is in a favorable position to be a decent fantasy producer.
Treating the clear-cut, best 3 or 4 TEs the same as you would the top 15 WRs, and lumping them all together as “receivers” is also a very good approach in deep leagues. That also means you’ll be adopting the same philosophy that those top TEs are going to be out of your league and off your target list. In addition, you will be targeting some value TEs that have a history of solid, but under-the-radar production like Dallas Clark or Jermaine Wiggins. You’ll also want to decide which type of TE you want to target or will be able to live with on a week to week basis. Do you want someone that gets a catch or three for a handful of yards every week (Putzier) without little chance at a touchdown, or do you want to go after the guys that could go two weeks without a catch but get two touchdowns the week they finally do get the ball (Heath Miller?)
TEs can also be looked at as the “pick your poison” roster spot. If you’re going to be weak somewhere, at least try to have some semblance of control over where and how you are weak. By taking a hit at a position where 50-75% of the league is also going to be weak and that is only 1/7th or 1/9th of your starting skill positions, at the cost of improving those other positions, is a very reasonable strategy.
Regardless, it is advisable in a deep league to at least draft 2 TEs, or scrounge up a second one shortly after the draft. Besides being helpful for your bye week or in case of injury, you’re also doubling your chances that you landed one of the handful of middle of the road or unknown TEs that emerge as surprises every year. But in order to make sure you’re putting out the best talent available at your other skill positions, don’t draft that first one until you have at least filled your starting QB and RB slots as well as at least 2 of your WR slots. By that time in the draft there should still be some decent value picks like Ben Troupe or Bubba Franks available. In conjunction with a later round pick of someone like Marcedes Lewis, Zach Hilton or Leonard Pope, your TE position will be serviceable, at minimum.
Kickers
Deep leagues and kickers are always interesting. The same predicament exists with them as with QBs or even DEFs because there are only 32 of them to go around, so 40% of the league is probably left holding an empty slot during their kicker’s bye week. But I’m here to tell you that in 8 seasons in a 20 team league, I have never drafted two kickers and have never lost a game because of it. I either was able to get one thrown in as part of a mid-season trade with a team that already used their spare during a bye week, picked one up on waivers or FA due to the inevitable kicker turn-over that teams experience during the season and once even went into battle without one. So unless you are really late into your draft and have already stock piled depth at every other skill position with a few kickers still on the board, don’t make it a priority to acquire more than one.
Now, the when and who. Anything earlier than the 10th round is absurd in a deep league and the optimal place to take one is the 12th to 14th round after you’ve got at least 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 1 RB handcuff, 4 WR and 1 TE. As for the who, don’t discount things like indoor kickers, age or experience. For example, if you’ve got two 10+ year veteran kickers you’re trying to decide on, and one plays outdoors and the other indoors, the indoor kicker should get the edge. But, essentially, your strategy should be to target a kicker that will get plenty of opportunity, is in a good situation and isn’t at risk of losing his job. You will still run into the instances where a kicker goes cold all of a sudden and gets released after many years of service for the team, as kicking tolerance is very fickle among coaches and general managers. But if you’re going to have that happen, it’s much better to have it occur to the kicker position on your roster where it’s unlikely someone else already has his eventual replacement on their roster or it’s easy to scoop up another kicker starting in the NFL, even in a deep league.
Defenses/IDP
It’s a widely believed theory of fantasy football that picking a defense is just a shade above random. So the importance of a defense is still not that great, even in a deep league where, again, some teams will wind up with only one during the draft. I’m not big on taking specific defenses or trying to predict which team will be a top fantasy scorer, so I recommend using data, analysis, projections or recommendations from a trusted source like footballguys.com and rolling the dice by taking the best available according to that list when the time comes for a defense. And when is that time? After your kicker, at the very least, and ideally after about 8-10 other defenses are off the board.
As far as drafting one versus two, apply most of the same logic as with kickers: if there’s still a few on the board when you’re running out of offensive targets, grab a second. Especially if your first DEF has an early bye week. Otherwise, the chances are pretty good you’ll be able to pick one up somehow whether it is a trade throw-in or a FA pick-up. Some leagues can get stingy and you may have to face the reality of going without one for a week. That’s not preferable, but also not something that is impossible to recover from. If you really did miss the boat on a second DEF in a deep league, it’s usually because you kept finding value in the late rounds at the skill positions, which should put you in a nice position regardless.
If your deep league includes IDP, things are only slightly different. There will never be a shortage of IDPs when you have bye weeks or poor performers, yet the approach to IDPs should be the same as a team DEF: low priority. With 11 starters multiplied by 32 teams there are at least 352 IDPs out there for the picking that will see a lot of playing time. Granted, there’s a bit of a significant difference between the # 1 ranked IDP and the 352nd, but even if your league starts as many as 8 IDPs you’re still working with the top 50% of those IDPs.
My suggested approach is to think of most IDPs as disposable. Don’t use valuable roster space in a deep league for bench IDPs. If you start 5 IDPs, draft the 5 best IDPs possible near the end of your draft and wait until the first bye week before deciding if trading or cutting a skill position player is worth benching an IDP while on bye and picking up a temporary replacement. If that player is only an average performer, seriously consider dropping him for the week and picking the same player up a week later if you really like them, but chances are you’ll be able to pick up a comparable player or even someone who is having a better season altogether.
Now, if you have an IDP stud according to your league scoring you can do what’s necessary to keep them on your roster all year long. Along with that, if your league gives points for return yardage, there are a fair amount of DBs that would have value to hold onto all year as they can get you points from both sides of the ball.
As for what to target for your 5 IDPs in the draft, a good mix is to get at least 2 DBs that either have a nose for INTs or are playing opposite a “shut down” corner on the same team, 2 LBs that are usually among the tackle leaders or playing for a team that will be playing a lot of defense and one DL that has sack potential.
Keep in mind, although IDPs should be a low priority, they shouldn’t exactly be an afterthought either. But a significant amount of owners will do little to no research or rankings and assume they can go off name recognition while drafting. But when it comes to IDPs, the biggest names are not always good fantasy performers. Shut down corners can be a good example of players people will recognize as good, but on the fantasy field they don’t produce as much as the corner on the other side of the field where the ball is usually going to in an attempt to avoid the better corner giving the shut down corner less chances at tackles and INTs. So put some time into ranking or researching projections from good fantasy football resources as well as keeping up on depth charts right until the draft so you can draft a core of IDPs just as good, if not better, at the end of your draft than most of the teams in your league.
Conclusion
Deep leagues are challenging to even the most skilled fantasy football player and shouldn’t be taken lightly. The seemingly small nuances of a deep league need to be fully understood and prepared for if you want to give yourself the best chance at success. Hopefully this guide helps contribute to that process as it prepares you for having the perfect draft.
