I had been targeting him successfully in round 7 but now it is impossible to get him if i wait untill after round 6
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Peyton Hillis will be a top 15 rb this year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Badgers Fan
- Start date
duaneok66
Footballguy
I am not a Hillis fan or Chiefs fan, but I am in the KC viewing area, so I was fortunate enough to watch it the other day. The KC rushing offense was taking care of business.
Badgers Fan
Footballguy
One thing that I hate is people overreacting to preseason. Because Hillis looked really good in his first game, I'm sure he's losing a lot of the value he had when I started this thread. I was luckily enough that one league drafted early so I got him beginning of round 8 (12 teamer) but I suspect he will cost a 6th rounder now. Still great value as an rb3, and I think he will do ok as an rb2 if it means you've already scooped up an elite qb/te and a few stud wr's.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
I am taking him 5:07 in a 12 team PPR redraft. I need him badly as my rb3.
Cato
Footballguy
Except if he is on your sleeper radar and you haven't drafted yet.Nice find/read.
zamboni
Footballguy
Certainly not going to make a lot out of 2 carries for -1 yard, but at the same time, I am starting to have some reservations over whether Hillis will resemble the stud of 2010 as opposed to the plodder he was last year.
On the other hand, Charles continues to be coming along nicely from his injury.
On the other hand, Charles continues to be coming along nicely from his injury.
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jurb26
Footballguy
Charles is significantly better than Hillis. That I have little doubt about. None the less, KC will want to keep Charles To a touch count around 20 or less per game IMO. That means Hillis will touch the ball, right or wrong.
zamboni
Footballguy
Agreed. Probably not unlike Jones two years ago, when Haley kept using Jones despite Charles being clearly better. Didn't want to overwork him.
Hillis postgame last night...nothing significant said IMO:
On the team’s energy level the last few years: “I was not here the past couple of years, so I would not know about that. We have a great bunch of guys and a lot of great talent on this team. We just have to put it together. Whatever mind set we need to have going into the season we need to get it and get it fast.”
What do you take away from tonight’s game? “We need to go back to the film room and work. It’s plain and simple. We made a lot of errors, a lot of mistakes as a team. We have to get it fixed.”
Are you concerned for this team after the last two games? “I’m not. This still is the preseason. It is no excuse for what happened tonight, but it is still the preseason. We still have time to get things accomplished. Hopefully we will do that.”
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/article-2/Post-Game-Quotes-Chiefs-players-vs-Seattle/4fb78c97-0164-4d25-abdc-b02a4f2d753b
The good news is that the team stunk to high-heaven when he was out of the game.
On the team’s energy level the last few years: “I was not here the past couple of years, so I would not know about that. We have a great bunch of guys and a lot of great talent on this team. We just have to put it together. Whatever mind set we need to have going into the season we need to get it and get it fast.”
What do you take away from tonight’s game? “We need to go back to the film room and work. It’s plain and simple. We made a lot of errors, a lot of mistakes as a team. We have to get it fixed.”
Are you concerned for this team after the last two games? “I’m not. This still is the preseason. It is no excuse for what happened tonight, but it is still the preseason. We still have time to get things accomplished. Hopefully we will do that.”
http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/article-2/Post-Game-Quotes-Chiefs-players-vs-Seattle/4fb78c97-0164-4d25-abdc-b02a4f2d753b
The good news is that the team stunk to high-heaven when he was out of the game.
gregjcross
Footballguy
I own Charles but cannot deny Hillis will have success if healthy but he is an RB3 in fantasy
Haha, there was a Peyton Hillis bandwagon long before you started this thread.
DocHoliday
Footballguy
I like Hillis, however I don't think its safe to say he will be a TOP 15... IMO, no way! I will look for hillis is mid to late rounds of my drafts as a back up option #3 or #4 RB. Just remember... Hillis has some baggage... labled as a QUITER! If he doesn't feel like working, he has proven that he will not produce. 
Hope the situation is better for him in KC... Actions speak louder than words.
Hope the situation is better for him in KC... Actions speak louder than words.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
based on?
Probably the p/t last night? Which, if that is what's was being referred to, is is a complete mirage...and probably great for those looking to pick up HIllis in a draft this week. Hopefully it scares some weaker stomachs away from HIllis.
Cheesedawg
Footballguy
The word is not out on Hillis yet. I took him just before the 100th pick of our draft in a 13-year league of quality owners where we give a half-point/reception for rb's. I didn't read this or any other thread on him before the draft, but came here to research the players on my new team. I previously had owned Hillis, for full disclosure, and was elated to get him for all the reasons listed in this thread.
At his current ADP, on paper he is a grand bargain. God only knows what the future will be, but he is easily my favorite pick in a 12 team league with 21-man rosters. I don't know about top 15 rb, but I think he will be a very good RB2/3 FWIW.
At his current ADP, on paper he is a grand bargain. God only knows what the future will be, but he is easily my favorite pick in a 12 team league with 21-man rosters. I don't know about top 15 rb, but I think he will be a very good RB2/3 FWIW.
cantstop1999
Footballguy
I'm also big on the Hillis banwagon, I'm glad he didn't go off in the pre-season or he would of climbed way up the draft boards. I drafted him in the 6th and believe it may be a steal. This guy will see 200-250 in touches, if healthy and should Charles have any problems even more. I believe he will have around 1000-1200 and 8-10 Tds. In the 6-7th rounds thats a nice Rb2. Just my opinion. If you dont go after him , your missing the boat because he will be a beast for KC and I don't see anyone mentioning his schedule, its a cake walk. good luck guys.
Badgers Fan
Footballguy
Last year in the final 14 games (all without Charles) the uninspiring combo of Thomas Jones/Jackie Battle/Dexter McCluster had 386 carries, or roughly 27.6 per game. I'm sure the Chiefs will be able to run more with Charles and Hillis. Charles may see more carries now without Haley, but I can't imagine him topping 250 carries. Even if the Chiefs only run 30 times a game, which is not much more than last year when they had garbage at running back, Hillis is still going to see at the least about 13 or so of those a game (I think it's closer to 15 a game). That'll still put him over 200 carries on the year. With just a 4.2 ypc and about 25 catches, he's looking at around 1050 total yards. All he needs is 8 touchdowns and he is pretty close to what Shonne Greene did last year (roughly 1250 yards, 30 catches, 6 tds) and Greene finished rb17 in my league (ppr, 1 pt per 10 carries). So personally, I think his downside is a low end rb2. I think his middle, is what I just said (1050 total yards, 8tds) which would put him as a mid-tier rb2, and his upside to me is a low end rb1. I don't think it'd be shocking if he had 250 carries for 4.3 ypc, 30 catches for 230 yards, 10 td's, which is about a high-end rb2/low-end rb1. Also, as stated in my original post, he has a very easy final 6 games.
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Just like the guy bragging about getting Mathews in the 9th, I must wonder, how did YOU let him slip to the 10th/11th? IF I don't slightly reach for him in the 5th then I'm certainly scooping him up in the 6th. If some ridiculous value is there in the 6th then I can't imagine a situation in which I don't grab him in the 7th. If still more ridiculous value was there in the 7th then I'm finding a less guppy-esque league next year.
the spanker
Footballguy
Amen.
ISUDESTROYERS
Footballguy
To me...ITS VERY EASY to see Hillis will be a top 15-20 RB this season. With the Chiefs HUGE dependence on the run (Cassel is nothing more than a pedestrian QB)and Charles is coming off an ACL injury (statistics say he will bounce back in 2013 not one year after his injury) and the fact that Hillis has MUCH TO PROVE this year (after his down year last year).....you know (barring injury of course) HILLIS WILL HAVE A HUGE YEAR !
Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
I agree with this. You will probably get BJGE's final numbers with more week by week consistancy.
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
All of this comes down to your own personal opinion of how you think Charles is going come back. I don't think the topic stands on its own otherwise as the two players are not even remotely close in talent. So IMHO a bandwagon for Hillis is the same bandwagon that is rooting for Charles to have some unforeseen problems.
Charles has not had a single setback and by all accounts is back in good health. With that in mind I think it would be tough to project his carries for anything less than 200-220 - remember he has had plenty of rehab time.
So what does that leave Hillis?
It looks like he is going to be a great utility player behind the best OL?? of his career. I would think 200 carries is a lofty number (175 seems more like it) but there is probably 5-6 rushing TD's available for him to grab. Figure 18-23 catches.
RB 3-4 in my book.
Charles has not had a single setback and by all accounts is back in good health. With that in mind I think it would be tough to project his carries for anything less than 200-220 - remember he has had plenty of rehab time.
So what does that leave Hillis?
It looks like he is going to be a great utility player behind the best OL?? of his career. I would think 200 carries is a lofty number (175 seems more like it) but there is probably 5-6 rushing TD's available for him to grab. Figure 18-23 catches.
RB 3-4 in my book.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Funny because in a twelve team, $, PPR league I just drafted those three1.06 Forte2.07 Charles7.06 Hillis
the spanker
Footballguy
Chiefs have already stated they plan to run 500 times.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Good luck :X
Shutout
Footballguy
The best laid plans of mice and men....Using that reasoning, Shonn greene is the guy you want in fantasy because the Jets have said they plan to run it all day and all night and they don't have to share carries much.
I think a few components that are really under-talked about in all this are:
1)Can the team REALLY run that much? I'm sure they CAN in theory but they might also have to be pretty fortunate that the game plan goes well, the defense keeps them in their games early, etc because they play in a division where all those teams can get points on you in a hurry and they play games against the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers this year where its not hard to envision having to pass to keep up. So, that's 9-10 games this year where I'm really calling that into question. Just hard for me to imagine the Chiefs going down to the dome in New orleans and running the ball down the saints throat all day. So I'm more inclined to think there will be situaitonal spots where this works but a lot of games where it simply won't hold up.
2)How well does Hillis have to perform to really eat that type of time share into Charles? If he is rumbling and knocking people over at 4.5+ yards a pop, sure. But if he is out there picking up 3 yards a carry and charles is out there doing what he does; gashing teams for 6-7 yards a pop and catching passes and being a legit threat to score each time, I think its hard to be on that field calling plays that don't utilize your best weapon half the time.
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Bogeys
Footballguy
Hillis started off his college career as a RB that got moved to FB when McFadden and Felix Jones got to school. He was drafted into the NFL as a FB and then got moved to RB because of injuries and did well. Why wouldn't KC utilize him in a 2 back field with Charles lined up at RB? The defense would have to pay attention to both since either one could run the ball or catch out of the backfield. Seems to me this would cause the defense the most problems.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
?? that sounds like an outstanding PPR backfield.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
rex ryan said the jets are going to the superbowl.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
different regime surely, but thats exactly what the chiefs did with charles/jones 2 yrs ago.
Eh, Hillis is going around the 6th/7th right now in my drafts. I'm OK spending a pick like that on a guy with his ceiling if something happens to Charles. And even if nothing happens to Charles, we know Hillis is going to get the goal-line looks and spot duty. I would be surprised if his floor was lower than 800 yards, 6 TDs. That's solid flex play, with massive upside if injury.
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This is turning into the "you didn't build that" of FF 2012.They said they'd like to get their backs 500 touches, not runs. Since these guys could quite easily be in the 50-100 reception range between them, they aren't planning to run the ball anything like 500 times between the two.'the spanker said:
LawFitz
Footballguy
Good point. This is a copy cat league. The Raiders, a KC division rival, have had great success utilizing Marcel Reece a non-traditional highly skilled FB in 2 RB sets. Two other guys who could easily carve a similar role on their teams'Bogeys said:
eyton HillisMike Tolbert
I do like Hillis better by far of the three however, b/c FB wouldn't be his only role. He'd be the backup and situational HB as well. But the point is that Hillis doesn't necessarily need to always come off the field when Charles comes on.
Badgers Fan
Footballguy
Charles and Jones combined for 475 rushes in 2010. Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones, and Dexter McCluster had 386 in 14 games (a rate of 441 for the season). I don't see why Hillis and Charles can't get to 500.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Copy/pasted directly from rotoworld. Maybe it's a misquote, but I haven't seen it debunked anywhere.That being said, 500 carries is a lot between two players, but it could be done. Charles/Jones split 475 just two seasons ago.
greggorymac
Footballguy
'Shutout said:
What happens to the rushing game plan when what happened against Seattle (last week) happens in the regular season? Of course every team wants to rush the ball 500 times during the season... that means you're controlling the clock and maintaining a lead. When you get behind against the opponent however, that plan all goes out the window. Yes I know Hillis can catch the ball well but did you see what happened to his usage once KC was stuck in passing situations against Seattle? Charles was used almost exclusively. If the Chiefs can carry out their game plan of controlling the clock and the game through rushing than Charles and Hillis will be an effective 1-2 punch. If KC gets behind in games, I see Hillis having a season more similar to what Michael Bush will perceivably have in CHI.Short Corner
Footballguy
'Shutout said:
This debate is turning silly.Badgers Fan
Footballguy
1. They play in a division with 3 defenses that ranked 20th or worst last year in total rushing yards given up. And the Panthers are atrocious. Wouldn't make sense not to run on them. Also, the Chiefs will certainly run early vs NO if they can, to keep the ball out of Brees hands.2. If Jackie Battle can get 4.0 ypc I'm fairly certain Peyton Hillis can get 4.2+. Hillis destroyed the Ravens at the end of last year, I think that shows he can still run.'Shutout said:
3. Do you think the Chiefs will give 300 carries to a guy coming off a major acl injury and whose career high in carries is 230?
Hillis is also in a year where he is on a 1 year contract and will be looking to establish value and will be playing for a bigger contract. His teammates have taken notice of his work effort and how he physically looks. Plus, his offensive coordinator was the same guy that saw Hillis break out in Cleveland.
Unless you think Charles is getting 300+ carries and goal line, then Hillis will have major value this year.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Even if a PPR league, 1.06 is way too high for Forte. He could have possibly been gotten at 2.07. You should never reach in the first round.'Run It Up said:What is wrong with those picks in a 12-team PPR draft?
zoonation
Footballguy
Hillis is a safe pick with huge upside this year. First, he will get 200 touches and likely all of the goaline work. He is being drafted in the 6th or 7th round and if you get 800-7 out of him with a sprinkling of a few catches here and there he is a solid flex play.
However, if Charles were to ever go down (being 1 year removed from ACL), Hillis becomes an automatic RB1.
What's to not like in rounds 6-7? Especially if you went for the big names early at the other positions.
However, if Charles were to ever go down (being 1 year removed from ACL), Hillis becomes an automatic RB1.
What's to not like in rounds 6-7? Especially if you went for the big names early at the other positions.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Buffaloes
Footballguy
I've seen him go anywhere from mid 1st -mid 2nd round. I don't think it's a bad pick in ppr.Even if a PPR league, 1.06 is way too high for Forte. He could have possibly been gotten at 2.07. You should never reach in the first round.'Run It Up said:
The knee was healthy enough for the Pro Bowl last year. Bush was brought in for the GL, but forte was never a huge GL contributor anyway. I think it's a decent pick in the middle of the 1st. Maybe 1 or 2 picks early imo, but that's not a huge deal.
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