Pick #7 PPR discussion (1 Viewer)

[bulger2holt]

Who are you guys eying here ? And who else in other rounds ?

 

[dickey moe]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

 

[bulger2holt]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I would also consider Mathews and/or ChJo. Both appear to be in bell cow situations, a rarity in today's NFL, and I expect ChJo to have a big bounce back year.

 

[bulger2holt]

I would also consider Mathews and/or ChJo. Both appear to be in bell cow situations, a rarity in today's NFL, and I expect ChJo to have a big bounce back year.

I haven't followed him very close. Is ChJo 100% healthy ?

 

[Grady Wilson]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

Agreed. I'd go with Johnson if he's still there. If not then Matthews if he's there. If both are gone, I'd grab Megatron or even a QB. Although QB would be my last choice and I would never draft a TE in the first round.

 

[bulger2holt]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

Agreed. I'd go with Johnson if he's still there. If not then Matthews if he's there. If both are gone, I'd grab Megatron or even a QB. Although QB would be my last choice and I would never draft a TE in the first round.

I can't take a QB in rd 1 either. Might think hard about it if Rodgers is there at 7, but doubt he will be. I don't think Mega will be there at 7 either. I haven't taken a RB in rd 1 in years because I am always picking late rd 1. I have went wr/wr/wr (PPR) the past 3 years and have done really well.

 

[Chazzhawk]

Assuming Mccoy, Foster, Rice, Rodgers and Megatron go 1 - 5. I would hope Matthews falls to me, if not I would draft C Johnson, Forte or DMC

 

[bulger2holt]

Assuming Mccoy, Foster, Rice, Rodgers and Megatron go 1 - 5. I would hope Matthews falls to me, if not I would draft C Johnson, Forte or DMC

In a PPR, Forte should out score Mathews imo. Love DMC, just can't trust him staying healthy. Here is a hint to my fellow #7 buddies, take Danny Amendola in a PPR around his ADP or even a round earlier. He will catch 100+ balls and score several TD's. He is an amazing slot WR and Bradford loves him. He is 100# too.

 

[bulger2holt]

It seems there is a lot better value at WR in the mid to late rds than RB, so I am thinking from the 7 spot of taking one of the RB's mentioned above (CJ, Forte, Mathews) in rd 1, then possibly Sproles or Charles in rd 2. I think at 7 you need to come away with RB / RB this year. Thoughts ?

 

[bulger2holt]

I haven't followed the health of guys yet, so I will need to research CJ, Forte, DMC and Charles.

 

[chickensoup]

I go with Matthews or CJ whichever one you think will do better. CJ has health on his side but he is very very up and down by game and i have a hard time believing last year was a complete anomaly so i personally go with Matthews. I know people here like to discount McFadden with his health concerns (which everyone has) but I think DMC needs to be considered as well. I think he would be 1.01 if he wasnt an injury concern so if you want to swing for the fences i think you take him.

 

[nittanylion]

IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT THE SHARK POOL

Threads that are asking for advice on how you should draft or manage your team belong in The Assistant Coach forum.

HTH

Depends on the kind of PPR, in relation to how it affects RB's, TE's and how your QB's are scored. If your scoring system does NOT devalue RB, does NOT overinflate TE and QB get a reasonable share of points, it's a pretty safe bet that 1.01-1.06, in some way, shape or form will be: Foster, Rice, McCoy, Rodgers, Cal Johnson and Mathews. If one of them falls, lucky you. If not, Chris Johnson is, IMO, the next best choice. I think he's in for a rebound, and I like what the Titans seem to be doing. Even with Hasselbeck/Locker, they can put up enough passing offense to keep D's honest. Not out of the question to consider Brady or Newton (if you're a believer), Andre Johnson, Gronkowski or Graham here, depending on your system...I have issues with all the other RB's, though. Too much defensive focus on MJD; Forte, Charles and McFadden all have injury issues that bug me, and WR Fitz's QB situation causes me concern. Just my .02...

 

[flc735]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

Agreed. I'd go with Johnson if he's still there. If not then Matthews if he's there. If both are gone, I'd grab Megatron or even a QB. Although QB would be my last choice and I would never draft a TE in the first round.

I can't take a QB in rd 1 either. Might think hard about it if Rodgers is there at 7, but doubt he will be. I don't think Mega will be there at 7 either. I haven't taken a RB in rd 1 in years because I am always picking late rd 1. I have went wr/wr/wr (PPR) the past 3 years and have done really well.

i usually do wr in the 1-2 rounds too but unless your getting calvin, this isnt the year to do thatthere are wr1 type guys sitting in the 4-5th rounds and wr2 type guys all the way to the 8th roundsif no mathews, calvin or rodgers, i'd go graham unless i can only start 1te maxthen i would take an rb but i wouldn't be too happy about thatin the 2nd, gronk, murray or cam depending on the 1st round3rd- sproles. if not, then wr4th- wr5th- bpa6th- fred davis if needed. if not, then bpa7th-cutler/bpa

 

[bulger2holt]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

Agreed. I'd go with Johnson if he's still there. If not then Matthews if he's there. If both are gone, I'd grab Megatron or even a QB. Although QB would be my last choice and I would never draft a TE in the first round.

I can't take a QB in rd 1 either. Might think hard about it if Rodgers is there at 7, but doubt he will be. I don't think Mega will be there at 7 either. I haven't taken a RB in rd 1 in years because I am always picking late rd 1. I have went wr/wr/wr (PPR) the past 3 years and have done really well.

i usually do wr in the 1-2 rounds too but unless your getting calvin, this isnt the year to do thatthere are wr1 type guys sitting in the 4-5th rounds and wr2 type guys all the way to the 8th roundsif no mathews, calvin or rodgers, i'd go graham unless i can only start 1te maxthen i would take an rb but i wouldn't be too happy about thatin the 2nd, gronk, murray or cam depending on the 1st round3rd- sproles. if not, then wr4th- wr5th- bpa6th- fred davis if needed. if not, then bpa7th-cutler/bpa

Sproles won't be there in rd 3.

 

[cheese]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

 

[bulger2holt]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

 

[Instinctive]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

 

[cheese]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

So you are assuming Rodgers will be gone, but don't consider Brees viable? Just curious as I didn't perceive much of a dropoff there.Working from the 3 RBs, CJ scares the heck out of me as a 1st round pick. He has a bust risk well above the other 2 just based on last year. Given your premise, I'd say you should be studying Matthews and Forte trying to develop a preference. I do agree with you on ignoring WRs though after Calvin in rd1.

 

[Zackattack]

I have pick 7 and I am hoping megatron calls to me. In this league it may as guys like QB's early. If not I may gamble on McFadden. it's that or CJ2K or Mathews.

 

[bulger2holt]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

Point taken. That's why I love this site.

 

[bulger2holt]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

So you are assuming Rodgers will be gone, but don't consider Brees viable? Just curious as I didn't perceive much of a dropoff there.Working from the 3 RBs, CJ scares the heck out of me as a 1st round pick. He has a bust risk well above the other 2 just based on last year. Given your premise, I'd say you should be studying Matthews and Forte trying to develop a preference. I do agree with you on ignoring WRs though after Calvin in rd1.

agree

 

[bulger2holt]

I also may look hard and long at Newton in rd 2. He is just a man beast.

RD 1) Mathews or Forte

RD 2) Newton

RD 3) Wallce / Nicks / Cruz

RD 4) Nelson / Dem. Thomas / Doug Martin

RD 5) Decker / Antonio Brown

RD 6) Green Ellis / Hillis / Spiller / Vincent Jackson

RD 7) Torrey Smith / Denarius Moore

RD 8) Pettigrew

RD 9) Gresham (we start a flex, so 2 good TE's is an option)

This is where all these players ADP falls.

 

[flc735]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

Agreed. I'd go with Johnson if he's still there. If not then Matthews if he's there. If both are gone, I'd grab Megatron or even a QB. Although QB would be my last choice and I would never draft a TE in the first round.

I can't take a QB in rd 1 either. Might think hard about it if Rodgers is there at 7, but doubt he will be. I don't think Mega will be there at 7 either. I haven't taken a RB in rd 1 in years because I am always picking late rd 1. I have went wr/wr/wr (PPR) the past 3 years and have done really well.

i usually do wr in the 1-2 rounds too but unless your getting calvin, this isnt the year to do thatthere are wr1 type guys sitting in the 4-5th rounds and wr2 type guys all the way to the 8th rounds

if no mathews, calvin or rodgers, i'd go graham unless i can only start 1te max

then i would take an rb but i wouldn't be too happy about that

in the 2nd, gronk, murray or cam depending on the 1st round

3rd- sproles. if not, then wr

4th- wr

5th- bpa

6th- fred davis if needed. if not, then bpa

7th-cutler/bpa

Sproles won't be there in rd 3.

3rd- sproles. if not, then wr

 

[theToes]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

My league scoring heavily favors the Qb. Td's are all 6pts but its the yds that make the big differenceAll yardage is 1 pt for every 25 yds. That's pass/rush/receive.

In addition there is a 5 pt bonus for a 300 yd game for passing and receiving for a TE.

To use the qb example above for my league

Brees - 542 pts

Ryan - 351 pts

12 pts a week

the top Qb's go very early in the draft. If one of the top 4 Qb's make it down to me at 7 I'll grab one. If not I'd probably go with Megatron.

If gronk or graham get back to me in the 2nd I'll grab who ever makes it back. From then on its BPA.

 

[Instinctive]

I also may look hard and long at Newton in rd 2. He is just a man beast. RD 1) Mathews or ForteRD 2) NewtonRD 3) Wallce / Nicks / CruzRD 4) Nelson / Dem. Thomas / Doug MartinRD 5) Decker / Antonio BrownRD 6) Green Ellis / Hillis / Spiller / Vincent JacksonRD 7) Torrey Smith / Denarius MooreRD 8) PettigrewRD 9) Gresham (we start a flex, so 2 good TE's is an option)This is where all these players ADP falls.

Newton and Vick do get increased value in 4 pt pass TD leagues - because of the rushing ones being 6 still. There's an article on ESPN (believe it or not) that does a great analysis of Newton's rushing scores and the likelihood (or lack thereof) that he repeats. @heToes - I think we're on the same page. All the little factors add up. The only point I was making is that 4 vs 6 pt pass TDs doesn't change the value of a top guy vs a replacement guy.

 

[meatwad1]

In ppr redraft, you are stupid not to consider Gronk or Graham in the 7 slot of a redraft. Both are projecting as 80 plus catches with double digit tds. That is wr #1 production out of your te. Big advantage. I cannot think of other wrs , outside of Megatron, how I would rather have. Same with the rbs, as I feel that this is going to be a screwy year for rbs and wrs with a lot of young talent looking to take hold . Lots of value in the 2nd, -5th rounds for high potential rbs and wrs.

 

[bulger2holt]

In ppr redraft, you are stupid not to consider Gronk or Graham in the 7 slot of a redraft. Both are projecting as 80 plus catches with double digit tds. That is wr #1 production out of your te. Big advantage. I cannot think of other wrs , outside of Megatron, how I would rather have. Same with the rbs, as I feel that this is going to be a screwy year for rbs and wrs with a lot of young talent looking to take hold . Lots of value in the 2nd, -5th rounds for high potential rbs and wrs.

Not as sold on Gronk this year. With Lloyd, Welker and Hernandez, that's a lot of mouths to feed. I love Graham this year, but just can't see taking a TE in rd 1. He's worthy, I just can't do it.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

I have pick 7 and I am hoping megatron calls to me. In this league it may as guys like QB's early. If not I may gamble on McFadden. it's that or CJ2K or Mathews.

I'm picking 7 in my 2QB league, 10 teams.I anticipate the first 6 picks going: Rodgers, Foster, McCoy, Brees, Brady, Gronk (start 2TE as well, although Calvin could go here as well). So I am taking Rice if that is the case.If, however, things go more standard it could be Rodgers, Foster, McCoy, Calvin, Brady, Rice.In that scenario I am debating between Mathews and McFadden, but my scheme would be to get both. So my question really, is who would be more likely to be passed on at 8, 9, 10 (and 10, 9, 8)?The second round pick from #7 is more important that the first IMO. You have to assume the next few picks are Mathews/DMac, Forte, Graham, MJD (if no long holdout), and maybe 1- QBs, maybe Larry Fitz?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

2nd half of the 1st is RB territory for me this year. The guys available in the mid - 2nd on scare me as RB1s this year. No QB due to the pretty decent chance that one of Brady / Brees fall to the mid-2nd. Assuming Mega is gone, no WR stands out to me; I love the 3rd round WRs as far as value at WR1. TE isn't a bad idea, but the dropoff at RB is really brutal after Matthews, MJD, etc are gone.

 

[cheese]

2nd half of the 1st is RB territory for me this year. The guys available in the mid - 2nd on scare me as RB1s this year. No QB due to the pretty decent chance that one of Brady / Brees fall to the mid-2nd. Assuming Mega is gone, no WR stands out to me; I love the 3rd round WRs as far as value at WR1. TE isn't a bad idea, but the dropoff at RB is really brutal after Matthews, MJD, etc are gone.

I agree with this, but I think it's also fair to say the dropoff at RB is really brutal BEFORE Matthews, MJD, CJ, etc are gone as well. I don't really like those guys anywhere near the top tier of RBs, but (to your point) if you don't take one of them, it gets even worse. If I don't draft really high, I don't see many cases where I come out feeling completely comfortable at RB this year. If I'm not going to like my RBs, I prefer to go big at QB/TE to try to make up for that. I feel like every mock lands me with WRs I like no matter where I pick or when I take them.Just my 2 cents... lots of ways to go at 7.

 

[Grahamburn]

I feel like every mock lands me with WRs I like no matter where I pick or when I take them.

Keep in mind that everyone else in your draft feels the same way. There seem to be about 25 WRs who could end up in the 1,000 and 7 to 1,200 and 9 range. The trick, obviously, is actually drafting the guys who produce those numbers, because inevitably they all aren't going to reach those benchmarks. I'll be taking a "sure thing" at WR (Andre, Fitzgerald, or Jennings) in round 2 over the question marks at RB, because these are the players I know will put up 1,300+ and 9.

 

[wolfeman]

I'm 7 out of 12. All TDs are 6. Basic scoring for yardage. I leaning toward QB in the 1st. Then thinking top RB left on the board. Maybe a Murray or Richardson...

 

[dickey moe]

I feel like every mock lands me with WRs I like no matter where I pick or when I take them.

Keep in mind that everyone else in your draft feels the same way. There seem to be about 25 WRs who could end up in the 1,000 and 7 to 1,200 and 9 range. The trick, obviously, is actually drafting the guys who produce those numbers, because inevitably they all aren't going to reach those benchmarks. I'll be taking a "sure thing" at WR (Andre, Fitzgerald, or Jennings) in round 2 over the question marks at RB, because these are the players I know will put up 1,300+ and 9.

When has Andre been a "sure thing" lately?

 

[Instinctive]

I feel like every mock lands me with WRs I like no matter where I pick or when I take them.

Keep in mind that everyone else in your draft feels the same way. There seem to be about 25 WRs who could end up in the 1,000 and 7 to 1,200 and 9 range. The trick, obviously, is actually drafting the guys who produce those numbers, because inevitably they all aren't going to reach those benchmarks. I'll be taking a "sure thing" at WR (Andre, Fitzgerald, or Jennings) in round 2 over the question marks at RB, because these are the players I know will put up 1,300+ and 9.

When has Andre been a "sure thing" lately?

Over the past four years, when he's averaged 8 catches, 100 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game when healthy.ETA: (Almost 100 - it's like 97.5ish)

 

[Grahamburn]

I feel like every mock lands me with WRs I like no matter where I pick or when I take them.

Keep in mind that everyone else in your draft feels the same way. There seem to be about 25 WRs who could end up in the 1,000 and 7 to 1,200 and 9 range. The trick, obviously, is actually drafting the guys who produce those numbers, because inevitably they all aren't going to reach those benchmarks. I'll be taking a "sure thing" at WR (Andre, Fitzgerald, or Jennings) in round 2 over the question marks at RB, because these are the players I know will put up 1,300+ and 9.

When has Andre been a "sure thing" lately?

He's certainly a sure thing when he's on the field, and as far as I know he's healthy right now. This is from July 17th:

According to teammate Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson is fully recovered from early May's arthroscopic knee surgery.

"I'm 100 percent, ready to go with no restrictions," Schaub said. "Andre looks great. He's also 100 percent and ready to go."

The two have been working on timing at the University of Houston after missing offseason practices. Despite last year's twin hamstring injuries, Johnson proved capable of getting open almost at will with 24 targets in two playoff games.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Ryan Mathews

 

[wolfeman]

Ryan Mathews

I would be happy with Mathews in RD2

 

[baldbird]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

I agree to much other talent in round one to take a TE and I know both these guys are solid But I think anyone that jumps on these guys in the 1st round will be playing catch up all draft long..

 

[Instinctive]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

I just can't take a TE in rd 1.

I agree to much other talent in round one to take a TE and I know both these guys are solid But I think anyone that jumps on these guys in the 1st round will be playing catch up all draft long..

I've been mocking, and the TE-QB-WR-WR start lets me take a lot of RBs the rest of the draft. And there's a lot of value there. I can get Wells, Ryan Williams, Donald Brown, Starks, Jonathan Stewart, McGahee, Hillman, Vereen, Turbin...enough guys that I can fill two RB slots. I'll take the massive advantage Graham will give me at TE, hopefully do the same at QB, then get decent wideouts and shotgun the RB position, which always has the most injuries and the most guys emerge anyway.

 

[Short Corner]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

To say that the difference between 4 and 6 means nothing is beyond ignorant. Sure it is only 24 points, but it is 24 points of EXTRA value. Yuo need to focus on the 72, not the 24.

 

[Short Corner]

I feel like every mock lands me with WRs I like no matter where I pick or when I take them.

Keep in mind that everyone else in your draft feels the same way. There seem to be about 25 WRs who could end up in the 1,000 and 7 to 1,200 and 9 range. The trick, obviously, is actually drafting the guys who produce those numbers, because inevitably they all aren't going to reach those benchmarks. I'll be taking a "sure thing" at WR (Andre, Fitzgerald, or Jennings) in round 2 over the question marks at RB, because these are the players I know will put up 1,300+ and 9.

When has Andre been a "sure thing" lately?

Over the past four years, when he's averaged 8 catches, 100 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game when healthy.ETA: (Almost 100 - it's like 97.5ish)

 

[Bamac]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

To say that the difference between 4 and 6 means nothing is beyond ignorant. Sure it is only 24 points, but it is 24 points of EXTRA value. Yuo need to focus on the 72, not the 24.

Agreed. (With Short Corner)Let's tweak the example a bit.

4 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

2 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 68 points

Ryan 22 TD = 44 points

for a difference of 24 points.

Would you value QBs less in a 2-point-per-TD league than in a 4-point-per-TD league? It's only a 24-point difference over the course of a year.

24 VBD points make a bigger difference than it might seem at first glance.

 

[VA703]

Assuming Mccoy, Foster, Rice, Rodgers and Megatron go 1 - 5. I would hope Matthews falls to me, if not I would draft C Johnson, Forte or DMC

In a PPR, Forte should out score Mathews imo. Love DMC, just can't trust him staying healthy. Here is a hint to my fellow #7 buddies, take Danny Amendola in a PPR around his ADP or even a round earlier. He will catch 100+ balls and score several TD's. He is an amazing slot WR and Bradford loves him. He is 100# too.

no way id waste a first rounder on no show amendolaedit: i didnt read everything you wrote.. i stopped reading at amendola.. but yeah i still am not interested in him - i dont se much changing

 

[Instinctive]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

To say that the difference between 4 and 6 means nothing is beyond ignorant. Sure it is only 24 points, but it is 24 points of EXTRA value. Yuo need to focus on the 72, not the 24.

Agreed. (With Short Corner)Let's tweak the example a bit.

4 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

2 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 68 points

Ryan 22 TD = 44 points

for a difference of 24 points.

Would you value QBs less in a 2-point-per-TD league than in a 4-point-per-TD league? It's only a 24-point difference over the course of a year.

24 VBD points make a bigger difference than it might seem at first glance.

No it doesn't. It's 1.5 points each week. As far as the difference in when you take a QB, it's practically negligible to your decision making process. The reason you take a QB early is because of all the extra TDs themselves, the extra yards, the extra accuracy (if your league scores that) and the lower INTs. If you were going from 2 to 6, I'd say it has an impact, but only the 2 points...so many other factors are already at play that it really shouldn't be changing your approach.

-----------------------------

@Short Corner - "Yuo [sic] need to focus on the 72, not the 24" is (to use your own words for you, because we need to make personal attacks instead of discussing something like mature adults) beyond ignorant - the only relevant factor in decision making is the difference. The pure scoring of a guy is not what matters, the difference between him and the other guy you might take is what matters - THAT'S WHAT VBD IS. You made need to step back here and take a look at relevant decision factors - only things that are different between options matter in a decision between options.

So - first let's make sure you're up on reading comprehension here - the 24 points over the course of the year (1.5 points per week) is not such a large difference on top of the other differences you're getting (less INTs, more yards, more actual TDs) that it should change your approach to drafting a QB. It is, as I said earlier a "practically negligible" difference, especially with all the other issues you already have factored in to QB value. Positional scarcity would have a larger impact as well - if you have 14 teams or 16 teams rather than 12, the top QB becomes more valuable as well.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

x2After the top 5 I think Graham is a great pick in a TE required PPR. Too many flags on Mathews and Chris Johnson.

 

[Instinctive]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

x2After the top 5 I think Graham is a great pick in a TE required PPR. Too many flags on Mathews and Chris Johnson.

What are these flags people see on Mathews? Is there anything beyond the whole "oh he's soft" junk? I'm thinking Mathews may be a value play here.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

If the consensus Top 5 get drafted, either Gronk or Graham.

x2After the top 5 I think Graham is a great pick in a TE required PPR. Too many flags on Mathews and Chris Johnson.

What are these flags people see on Mathews? Is there anything beyond the whole "oh he's soft" junk? I'm thinking Mathews may be a value play here.

Mathews is certainly the upside pick but I think he's a risk at 6-7. He has missed games in all five college/pro seasons. He's never gotten 300 touches in a season. I'd bet against him doing it this year.

 

[Short Corner]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

To say that the difference between 4 and 6 means nothing is beyond ignorant. Sure it is only 24 points, but it is 24 points of EXTRA value. Yuo need to focus on the 72, not the 24.

Agreed. (With Short Corner)Let's tweak the example a bit.

4 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

2 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 68 points

Ryan 22 TD = 44 points

for a difference of 24 points.

Would you value QBs less in a 2-point-per-TD league than in a 4-point-per-TD league? It's only a 24-point difference over the course of a year.

24 VBD points make a bigger difference than it might seem at first glance.

No it doesn't. It's 1.5 points each week. As far as the difference in when you take a QB, it's practically negligible to your decision making process. The reason you take a QB early is because of all the extra TDs themselves, the extra yards, the extra accuracy (if your league scores that) and the lower INTs. If you were going from 2 to 6, I'd say it has an impact, but only the 2 points...so many other factors are already at play that it really shouldn't be changing your approach.

-----------------------------

@Short Corner - "Yuo [sic] need to focus on the 72, not the 24" is (to use your own words for you, because we need to make personal attacks instead of discussing something like mature adults) beyond ignorant - the only relevant factor in decision making is the difference. The pure scoring of a guy is not what matters, the difference between him and the other guy you might take is what matters - THAT'S WHAT VBD IS. You made need to step back here and take a look at relevant decision factors - only things that are different between options matter in a decision between options.

So - first let's make sure you're up on reading comprehension here - the 24 points over the course of the year (1.5 points per week) is not such a large difference on top of the other differences you're getting (less INTs, more yards, more actual TDs) that it should change your approach to drafting a QB. It is, as I said earlier a "practically negligible" difference, especially with all the other issues you already have factored in to QB value. Positional scarcity would have a larger impact as well - if you have 14 teams or 16 teams rather than 12, the top QB becomes more valuable as well.

My reading comprehension is fine. In your own words, the only difference between him and the other guy is the difference. I realize it may be a foreign concept to you but when you add 24 points the difference changes. Confusing, I know, but you can crunch the numbers yourself if you don't believe me. I am not saying it automatically raises his value to the level we are discussing. That depends on your projections. But the assumption that running projections under two different scoring systems isn't going to change the relative values is not very smart.

 

[Instinctive]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

To say that the difference between 4 and 6 means nothing is beyond ignorant. Sure it is only 24 points, but it is 24 points of EXTRA value. Yuo need to focus on the 72, not the 24.

Agreed. (With Short Corner)Let's tweak the example a bit.

4 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

2 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 68 points

Ryan 22 TD = 44 points

for a difference of 24 points.

Would you value QBs less in a 2-point-per-TD league than in a 4-point-per-TD league? It's only a 24-point difference over the course of a year.

24 VBD points make a bigger difference than it might seem at first glance.

No it doesn't. It's 1.5 points each week. As far as the difference in when you take a QB, it's practically negligible to your decision making process. The reason you take a QB early is because of all the extra TDs themselves, the extra yards, the extra accuracy (if your league scores that) and the lower INTs. If you were going from 2 to 6, I'd say it has an impact, but only the 2 points...so many other factors are already at play that it really shouldn't be changing your approach.

-----------------------------

@Short Corner - "Yuo [sic] need to focus on the 72, not the 24" is (to use your own words for you, because we need to make personal attacks instead of discussing something like mature adults) beyond ignorant - the only relevant factor in decision making is the difference. The pure scoring of a guy is not what matters, the difference between him and the other guy you might take is what matters - THAT'S WHAT VBD IS. You made need to step back here and take a look at relevant decision factors - only things that are different between options matter in a decision between options.

So - first let's make sure you're up on reading comprehension here - the 24 points over the course of the year (1.5 points per week) is not such a large difference on top of the other differences you're getting (less INTs, more yards, more actual TDs) that it should change your approach to drafting a QB. It is, as I said earlier a "practically negligible" difference, especially with all the other issues you already have factored in to QB value. Positional scarcity would have a larger impact as well - if you have 14 teams or 16 teams rather than 12, the top QB becomes more valuable as well.

My reading comprehension is fine. In your own words, the only difference between him and the other guy is the difference. I realize it may be a foreign concept to you but when you add 24 points the difference changes. Confusing, I know, but you can crunch the numbers yourself if you don't believe me. I am not saying it automatically raises his value to the level we are discussing. That depends on your projections. But the assumption that running projections under two different scoring systems isn't going to change the relative values is not very smart.

I'm going to try this one more time. Because your first sentence appears inaccurate. Read through this this more than once, and maybe ask a friend after work to see if you've got it down:The difference changes in an amount that is practically negligible. If you need to go look up what that means, now is the time. I'll try to explain in layman's terms: The difference is so small, in comparison with other differences, changes, and factors that it does not have a large enough affect to significantly alter your QB drafting strategy. For all intents and purposes, relating to your drafting strategy, the added 2 points per TD pass does not make a large enough difference to effect a change in your strategy. That would be what "practically" is in there for.

Protip: Talking down to somebody works a lot better when you're right, or when you can actually look like you understand a concept. Better luck next time.

P.S. - This may help. There's no shame in it (I think...I wouldn't actually know )