Pick #7 PPR discussion (1 Viewer)

[Short Corner]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

To say that the difference between 4 and 6 means nothing is beyond ignorant. Sure it is only 24 points, but it is 24 points of EXTRA value. Yuo need to focus on the 72, not the 24.

Agreed. (With Short Corner)Let's tweak the example a bit.

4 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

2 points per TD:

Brees 34 TD = 68 points

Ryan 22 TD = 44 points

for a difference of 24 points.

Would you value QBs less in a 2-point-per-TD league than in a 4-point-per-TD league? It's only a 24-point difference over the course of a year.

24 VBD points make a bigger difference than it might seem at first glance.

No it doesn't. It's 1.5 points each week. As far as the difference in when you take a QB, it's practically negligible to your decision making process. The reason you take a QB early is because of all the extra TDs themselves, the extra yards, the extra accuracy (if your league scores that) and the lower INTs. If you were going from 2 to 6, I'd say it has an impact, but only the 2 points...so many other factors are already at play that it really shouldn't be changing your approach.

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@Short Corner - "Yuo [sic] need to focus on the 72, not the 24" is (to use your own words for you, because we need to make personal attacks instead of discussing something like mature adults) beyond ignorant - the only relevant factor in decision making is the difference. The pure scoring of a guy is not what matters, the difference between him and the other guy you might take is what matters - THAT'S WHAT VBD IS. You made need to step back here and take a look at relevant decision factors - only things that are different between options matter in a decision between options.

So - first let's make sure you're up on reading comprehension here - the 24 points over the course of the year (1.5 points per week) is not such a large difference on top of the other differences you're getting (less INTs, more yards, more actual TDs) that it should change your approach to drafting a QB. It is, as I said earlier a "practically negligible" difference, especially with all the other issues you already have factored in to QB value. Positional scarcity would have a larger impact as well - if you have 14 teams or 16 teams rather than 12, the top QB becomes more valuable as well.

My reading comprehension is fine. In your own words, the only difference between him and the other guy is the difference. I realize it may be a foreign concept to you but when you add 24 points the difference changes. Confusing, I know, but you can crunch the numbers yourself if you don't believe me. I am not saying it automatically raises his value to the level we are discussing. That depends on your projections. But the assumption that running projections under two different scoring systems isn't going to change the relative values is not very smart.

I'm going to try this one more time. Because your first sentence appears inaccurate. Read through this this more than once, and maybe ask a friend after work to see if you've got it down:The difference changes in an amount that is practically negligible. If you need to go look up what that means, now is the time. I'll try to explain in layman's terms: The difference is so small, in comparison with other differences, changes, and factors that it does not have a large enough affect to significantly alter your QB drafting strategy. For all intents and purposes, relating to your drafting strategy, the added 2 points per TD pass does not make a large enough difference to effect a change in your strategy. That would be what "practically" is in there for.

Protip: Talking down to somebody works a lot better when you're right, or when you can actually look like you understand a concept. Better luck next time.

P.S. - This may help. There's no shame in it (I think...I wouldn't actually know )

I don't have a strategy for drafting QBs until I do my projections, run them thru Excel with my scoring systems, set my VBD baselines, and compare them to my leagues drafting tendencies. You obviously have no clue what the words practical or negligible mean. The delta might be negligible under a particular set of projections and baseline, but assuming it is for every case is ignorant.Sorry toput it so bluntly. Maybe this will help in the future

 

[Instinctive]

My reading comprehension is fine. In your own words, the only difference between him and the other guy is the difference. I realize it may be a foreign concept to you but when you add 24 points the difference changes. Confusing, I know, but you can crunch the numbers yourself if you don't believe me. I am not saying it automatically raises his value to the level we are discussing. That depends on your projections. But the assumption that running projections under two different scoring systems isn't going to change the relative values is not very smart.

I'm going to try this one more time. Because your first sentence appears inaccurate. Read through this this more than once, and maybe ask a friend after work to see if you've got it down:The difference changes in an amount that is practically negligible. If you need to go look up what that means, now is the time. I'll try to explain in layman's terms: The difference is so small, in comparison with other differences, changes, and factors that it does not have a large enough affect to significantly alter your QB drafting strategy. For all intents and purposes, relating to your drafting strategy, the added 2 points per TD pass does not make a large enough difference to effect a change in your strategy. That would be what "practically" is in there for.

Protip: Talking down to somebody works a lot better when you're right, or when you can actually look like you understand a concept. Better luck next time.

P.S. - This may help. There's no shame in it (I think...I wouldn't actually know )

I don't have a strategy for drafting QBs until I do my projections, run them thru Excel with my scoring systems, set my VBD baselines, and compare them to my leagues drafting tendencies. YouI obviously have no clue what the words practical or negligible mean. The delta might be negligible under a particular set of projections and baseline, but assuming it is for every case is ignorant.Sorry toput it so bluntly. Maybe this will help in the future

Props for originality though...oh wait...Fixed

Enjoy! Better luck next time.

 

[bulger2holt]

I am starting to open up to the idea of Graham here at 7 in a PPR. I also want Cam in rd 2. Here was my last mock. Will this team suck in a 12 team ppr redraft ?

1- Graham

2- Newton

3- Fred Jackson

4- BJGE

5- Maclin

6- V Jackson

7- Spiller

8- Torry Smith

9- Gresham (flex ?)

10- Lance Moore

11- Mike Williams

 

[Instinctive]

I am starting to open up to the idea of Graham here at 7 in a PPR. I also want Cam in rd 2. Here was my last mock. Will this team suck in a 12 team ppr redraft ?1- Graham2- Newton3- Fred Jackson 4- BJGE5- Maclin6- V Jackson7- Spiller8- Torry Smith9- Gresham (flex ?)10- Lance Moore11- Mike Williams

I have no desire to depend on Cam as a second rounder with the historical unreliability of rushing TDs year to year. If I can't get Brady/Brees/Rodgers, I typically like my team better with Vick in the 4th.

 

[cvnpoka]

I play mostly 6pt all TD leagues and this is a prime QB spot. I don't like this spot nearly as much in 4pt passing TD leagues. I guess I'd probably go QB or TE. I just don't like the RB options here enough to pass on the huge advantage at those positions.

If we did 6 pts passing td's I would also consider a QB here, but with only 4 pts, I think the only viable option (assuming Mega and Rodgers are gone) is taking Mathews, Forte or CJ here. I think this is going to be the first year I go RB / RB ever. Too much value at WR in mid rounds this year imo. Hell, you can VJax in rd 5 or 6. That's crazy.

The bolded mean NOTHING. Here's an analysis I did prior to the 2010 season - that stats are different if you redo it now, but the principle is the same. The difference in going from 4 to 6 pts per TD pass is practically negligible.

Brees 34 TD = 136 points

Ryan 22 TD = 88 points

That's a difference of 48 points

If passing TD's are worth 6 points a piece it changes to:

Brees 34 TD = 204 points

Ryan 22 TD = 132 points

It adds practically no value. Look at the example: 48 vs 72 points on the season. So, 24 points over 16 weeks is the added difference if you go from 4 to 6. That's a point and a half per week. If you'd like to check with a calculator, I wouldn't object.

Do you really think that 1.5 points per week is what makes top QBs more valuable than getting the worst starter in your league? Or is it the extra 600 yards or so on top of the actual 48 or 72 points you're getting out of simply having more TDs to begin with?

Increasing the value of a TD itself has practically no difference until you at least begin to double it (i.e. 4 to 8). On the season, game to game, the difference of everyone getting 4 or 6 for passing TDs is, for all intents and purposes, negligible.

The top Qbs are the top QBs because they throw more TDs to begin with, and more yards. Adding a small amount to that gap by making TDs worth more shouldn't change your draft strategy at all.

1.5 pts per week is actually a lot

 

[Garrett]

RUN DMC

 

[Garrett]

I am starting to open up to the idea of Graham here at 7 in a PPR. I also want Cam in rd 2. Here was my last mock. Will this team suck in a 12 team ppr redraft ?1- Graham2- Newton3- Fred Jackson 4- BJGE5- Maclin6- V Jackson7- Spiller8- Torry Smith9- Gresham (flex ?)10- Lance Moore11- Mike Williams

I respect your opinion, but do not do that.I'd like that team a lot more with a stud RB/WR in the 2nd and a QB later on.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

RUN DMC

Its between him and Mathews I'd say.

 

[bulger2holt]

I am starting to open up to the idea of Graham here at 7 in a PPR. I also want Cam in rd 2. Here was my last mock. Will this team suck in a 12 team ppr redraft ?1- Graham2- Newton3- Fred Jackson 4- BJGE5- Maclin6- V Jackson7- Spiller8- Torry Smith9- Gresham (flex ?)10- Lance Moore11- Mike Williams

I respect your opinion, but do not do that.I'd like that team a lot more with a stud RB/WR in the 2nd and a QB later on.

Yeah, your're right. Every mock I do looks better when I wait on a QB. My favorite mocks have been when I go either Mathews or Forte in rd 1 and Sproles in rd 2.

 

[bulger2holt]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)

1) Foster

2) Rice

3) McCoy

4) Rodgers

5) Mega

6) Mathews

7) ?

CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

 

[Instinctive]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

I think it is tough to go wrong with McFadden or Graham. If you're superstitious and believe in things like ghosts and "injury prone", go with Graham - one of the safest picks in the back half of the first to provide solid value. If you're going for the big time and concerned about RBs, I like McFadden most - all these guys have question marks, but DMC has by far the highest ceiling.

 

[butcher boy]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

I think it is tough to go wrong with McFadden or Graham. If you're superstitious and believe in things like ghosts and "injury prone", go with Graham - one of the safest picks in the back half of the first to provide solid value. If you're going for the big time and concerned about RBs, I like McFadden most - all these guys have question marks, but DMC has by far the highest ceiling.

Looking at a guy's history and seeing that he cant play 16 games without getting hurt isn't superstition. The guy IS flat out injury prone. I know I'm not willing to spend a first round pick crossing my fingers that this is the year he bucks the trend.

 

[steelcityman]

me finished a draft, and in a league where TE got 1.5 ppr, I got Graham 10th and was jumping for joy.

I dont think there is a WR after Calvin worth taking.

RBs have been discussed, and if you dont want TE, take Brady or Brees.

 

[Instinctive]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

I think it is tough to go wrong with McFadden or Graham. If you're superstitious and believe in things like ghosts and "injury prone", go with Graham - one of the safest picks in the back half of the first to provide solid value. If you're going for the big time and concerned about RBs, I like McFadden most - all these guys have question marks, but DMC has by far the highest ceiling.

Looking at a guy's history and seeing that he cant play 16 games without getting hurt isn't superstition. The guy IS flat out injury prone. I know I'm not willing to spend a first round pick crossing my fingers that this is the year he bucks the trend.

Dude - if you want to hash it out, go back to the other thread and hash it out. You lost already - let's try to stick to the topic at hand.In general, I try to avoid RBs early - I feel like they often have guys come from nowhere, there's a ton of value in later guys, and that WRs are more consistent year to year. Average turnover at the RB position is higher than at the WR and QB positions. TE has less history because of the position's relatively recent evolution, but the tip top TEs (Gates and Gonzalez) were at the top year in and out for the better part of the past decade.As such - I think if you go RB, you may as well go for the guy who is least risk for performance AND has the highest upside, or go safe with Graham, or perhaps Brady/Brees (I prefer Brady this year)

 

[butcher boy]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

I think it is tough to go wrong with McFadden or Graham. If you're superstitious and believe in things like ghosts and "injury prone", go with Graham - one of the safest picks in the back half of the first to provide solid value. If you're going for the big time and concerned about RBs, I like McFadden most - all these guys have question marks, but DMC has by far the highest ceiling.

Looking at a guy's history and seeing that he cant play 16 games without getting hurt isn't superstition. The guy IS flat out injury prone. I know I'm not willing to spend a first round pick crossing my fingers that this is the year he bucks the trend.

Dude - if you want to hash it out, go back to the other thread and hash it out. You lost already - let's try to stick to the topic at hand.

There's nothing to hash out if you just dont get the point, dude.

 

[Instinctive]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

I think it is tough to go wrong with McFadden or Graham. If you're superstitious and believe in things like ghosts and "injury prone", go with Graham - one of the safest picks in the back half of the first to provide solid value. If you're going for the big time and concerned about RBs, I like McFadden most - all these guys have question marks, but DMC has by far the highest ceiling.

Looking at a guy's history and seeing that he cant play 16 games without getting hurt isn't superstition. The guy IS flat out injury prone. I know I'm not willing to spend a first round pick crossing my fingers that this is the year he bucks the trend.

Dude - if you want to hash it out, go back to the other thread and hash it out. You lost already - let's try to stick to the topic at hand.

There's nothing to hash out if you just dont get the point, dude.

It's like you're writing the material for me. Just too easy... ETA: Just for fun - Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Fred Taylor...

 

[butcher boy]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

I think it is tough to go wrong with McFadden or Graham. If you're superstitious and believe in things like ghosts and "injury prone", go with Graham - one of the safest picks in the back half of the first to provide solid value. If you're going for the big time and concerned about RBs, I like McFadden most - all these guys have question marks, but DMC has by far the highest ceiling.

Looking at a guy's history and seeing that he cant play 16 games without getting hurt isn't superstition. The guy IS flat out injury prone. I know I'm not willing to spend a first round pick crossing my fingers that this is the year he bucks the trend.

Dude - if you want to hash it out, go back to the other thread and hash it out. You lost already - let's try to stick to the topic at hand.

There's nothing to hash out if you just dont get the point, dude.

It's like you're writing the material for me. Just too easy... ETA: Just for fun - Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Fred Taylor...

I'm not going to follow suit with personal insults. Nice try though.As to the topic at hand, injury history is very relevent as many guys at the #7 ADP have prior issues. If you think it means nothing and want to ignore it, be my guest.

 

[Instinctive]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

I think it is tough to go wrong with McFadden or Graham. If you're superstitious and believe in things like ghosts and "injury prone", go with Graham - one of the safest picks in the back half of the first to provide solid value. If you're going for the big time and concerned about RBs, I like McFadden most - all these guys have question marks, but DMC has by far the highest ceiling.

Looking at a guy's history and seeing that he cant play 16 games without getting hurt isn't superstition. The guy IS flat out injury prone. I know I'm not willing to spend a first round pick crossing my fingers that this is the year he bucks the trend.

Dude - if you want to hash it out, go back to the other thread and hash it out. You lost already - let's try to stick to the topic at hand.

There's nothing to hash out if you just dont get the point, dude.

It's like you're writing the material for me. Just too easy... ETA: Just for fun - Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Fred Taylor...

I'm not going to follow suit with personal insults. Nice try though.As to the topic at hand, injury history is very relevent as many guys at the #7 ADP have prior issues. If you think it means nothing and want to ignore it, be my guest.

I don't see an insult...guess you believe in more than one fairy tale (THAT was a bit of a dig, btw - wouldn't go so far as to call it an insult, but I suppose a really thin-skinned person could take offense if they were out looking to be offended). Way to be the bigger man by declaring it though. If you really are, you probably won't respond. You'll take the high road and remain above it all. I'm an arrogant **** and I accept that...are you actually any better, or do you just think you are so you'll post another response? :dilemma:See ya For the rest of the thread at large, on McFadden as by far the best pick at this slot if you're going RB:The only thing people say keeps him out of the top 4 is injury history, he's clearly one of the most talented and productive in the league when healthy. But the myth of his injury prone-ness drop shim in the first round some because people are too superstitious:Here's the thing about injury history. You have to believe that some people are genetically more likely to be hurt than others - in most cases. I'm totally fine with the label on a guy like Reggie Bush, perhaps Marques Colston, because they have had multiple injuries and surgeries to the same part of their body (knees, specifically) that appear to be related and potentially degenerative.A guy like DMC has just been unlucky. Unless you believe turf toe, something to do with his lis franc, and an occipital fracture (that's his eye) are all part of a linked condition of being Darren McFadden. Occam's Razor would suggest that the much simpler explanation (DMC was simply unlucky more often than other guys) is likely to be the correct one.You can look at previous "injury prone" guys if you want and see how it hasn't really been true. Andre Johnson is one: guy was "injury prone" because he missed a couple games early in his career, then broke his leg halfway through what could have been a record setting season. Then, to "everyone's" surprise, he played through multiple seasons and had 100+ receptions for 1500+ yards multiple times, and suddenly he wasn't injury prone. After those two seasons, if you actually think some players are more likely to be injured than others, then AJ should still have been regarded as injury prone - he was still the same guy. Then he got hurt again and missed a few games last year...so he is injury prone again. Look: either he is injury prone, or he isn't. His injuries have not been related, I believe he has had the flu, a broken leg, a hamstring, the other hamstring, and a high ankle sprain. He's just been unlucky. Matt Schaub is another example. Fred Taylor. Steven Jackson - man, SJax is a great one. I can post that history if need be as well...but I have to imagine that MOST people understand from just one example...the average person can't be thick enough to require another before they get it, right?Edit: I put a ";" instead of an apostrophe in a contraction. Always hit that key for some reason...

 

[chickensoup]

It is funny how quickly people forget about "injury prone" players after they have a year without injury. Perfect example is Stafford, a guy who has finished exactly 1 year in the NFL. Just last year, 7th round pick after guys like Freeman in many cases. Now he is the 4th QB taken, yet has had 2 season ending injuries to his name, One to his throwing shoulder.

I'm not saying take DMC before foster/rice/McCoy/Matthews but he should 100% be in consideration forthe 5th RB off the board. He has top 5 talent.

 

[Instinctive]

It is funny how quickly people forget about "injury prone" players after they have a year without injury. Perfect example is Stafford, a guy who has finished exactly 1 year in the NFL. Just last year, 7th round pick after guys like Freeman in many cases. Now he is the 4th QB taken, yet has had 2 season ending injuries to his name, One to his throwing shoulder.I'm not saying take DMC before foster/rice/McCoy/Matthews but he should 100% be in consideration forthe 5th RB off the board. He has top 5 talent.

 

[bulger2holt]

DMC is definitely a home run pick with #7. I just don't have the balls to pick a guy who misses that many games. If you are a gambler, he would be the perfect pick at 7. I am leaning towards CJ2k or Forte

 

[Instinctive]

DMC is definitely a home run pick with #7. I just don't have the balls to pick a guy who misses that many games. If you are a gambler, he would be the perfect pick at 7. I am leaning towards CJ2k or Forte

How is CJ less of a risk? Forte coming off knee surgery?Any reason you think DMC misses games, or do you just see that he has and assume that means he'll miss more? That seems like a really bad process to me - if there's a reason he has been missing games (e.g. degenerative knee condition) then it makes sense, but if you're simply taking missed games as evidence that he'll miss more games...that's a bastardization of cause and effect.Just trying to help you out here - I draft at a turn so I don't really have a connection to DMC unless he falls to me, which would be awesome.

 

[bulger2holt]

Hey guys, I have a question..

At #7, if you think a guy you like will be there a couple spots later, would you drown and pick at #9 ? This would allow you to pick sooner in rd 2, but later in rd 3. What are the advantages and disadvantaged of this ?

TIA

 

[Ace08]

DMC is definitely a home run pick with #7. I just don't have the balls to pick a guy who misses that many games. If you are a gambler, he would be the perfect pick at 7. I am leaning towards CJ2k or Forte

How is CJ less of a risk? Forte coming off knee surgery?Any reason you think DMC misses games, or do you just see that he has and assume that means he'll miss more? That seems like a really bad process to me - if there's a reason he has been missing games (e.g. degenerative knee condition) then it makes sense, but if you're simply taking missed games as evidence that he'll miss more games...that's a bastardization of cause and effect.Just trying to help you out here - I draft at a turn so I don't really have a connection to DMC unless he falls to me, which would be awesome.

This is a freaking awesome postAnything after the Big 3 RB's and Calvin is a crap shoot to be honest. I'm one of those that refuses to take a TE or QB in the first round so as of right now I'm targetting McFadden and Julio at #7. Call me crazy but I feel conviction on Julio and from what I've been seeing on FF calculator today it's a 50-50 proposition at best that he makes it back to you in the 2nd round.

 

[bulger2holt]

DMC is definitely a home run pick with #7. I just don't have the balls to pick a guy who misses that many games. If you are a gambler, he would be the perfect pick at 7. I am leaning towards CJ2k or Forte

How is CJ less of a risk? Forte coming off knee surgery?Any reason you think DMC misses games, or do you just see that he has and assume that means he'll miss more? That seems like a really bad process to me - if there's a reason he has been missing games (e.g. degenerative knee condition) then it makes sense, but if you're simply taking missed games as evidence that he'll miss more games...that's a bastardization of cause and effect.Just trying to help you out here - I draft at a turn so I don't really have a connection to DMC unless he falls to me, which would be awesome.

This is a freaking awesome postAnything after the Big 3 RB's and Calvin is a crap shoot to be honest. I'm one of those that refuses to take a TE or QB in the first round so as of right now I'm targetting McFadden and Julio at #7. Call me crazy but I feel conviction on Julio and from what I've been seeing on FF calculator today it's a 50-50 proposition at best that he makes it back to you in the 2nd round.

McFadden / Julio is swinging for the fences. AJ Green is there in a lot of mocks in rd 3. I am kind of digging it. I love Harvin in rd 4, and Hillis in rd 5. 1) DMAC2) Julio3) AJ Green4) Harvin5) HillisI kind of like it. Need another RB or 2 somehow. Maybe Donald Brown in rd 6 ? Thoughts ??

 

[Ace08]

DMC is definitely a home run pick with #7. I just don't have the balls to pick a guy who misses that many games. If you are a gambler, he would be the perfect pick at 7. I am leaning towards CJ2k or Forte

How is CJ less of a risk? Forte coming off knee surgery?Any reason you think DMC misses games, or do you just see that he has and assume that means he'll miss more? That seems like a really bad process to me - if there's a reason he has been missing games (e.g. degenerative knee condition) then it makes sense, but if you're simply taking missed games as evidence that he'll miss more games...that's a bastardization of cause and effect.Just trying to help you out here - I draft at a turn so I don't really have a connection to DMC unless he falls to me, which would be awesome.

This is a freaking awesome postAnything after the Big 3 RB's and Calvin is a crap shoot to be honest. I'm one of those that refuses to take a TE or QB in the first round so as of right now I'm targetting McFadden and Julio at #7. Call me crazy but I feel conviction on Julio and from what I've been seeing on FF calculator today it's a 50-50 proposition at best that he makes it back to you in the 2nd round.

McFadden / Julio is swinging for the fences. AJ Green is there in a lot of mocks in rd 3. I am kind of digging it. I love Harvin in rd 4, and Hillis in rd 5. 1) DMAC2) Julio3) AJ Green4) Harvin5) HillisI kind of like it. Need another RB or 2 somehow. Maybe Donald Brown in rd 6 ? Thoughts ??

It's great but the problem is I'm not sure you'll be able to pull off both McFadden and Julio at the turn. I know it sounds crazy but Julio's ADP is already up to mid 2nd round and it's climbing. Like I said before it's 50-50 he makes it back to you in the 2nd. Here's what I've been mocking lately on a consistent basis (12 team ppr)JulioFitzAJ GreenBush or McGaheeRidley or HillisEither another RB or if a good TE like Witten is thereAnother RB QB - Ryan/Manning/RiversFrom that point on I keep stacking upside RB's who are preferably in time shares with either injury prone or older starters (Jacquizz Rodgers for example)My fear is if you take McFadden at 1.07 and then miss on Julio ...I just hate the thought of that scenario. I'd rather the opposite happen and just take a ton of RB's later to compensate.

 

[Instinctive]

I don't like going one position three straight times early. It locks you into other positions late and can cause you to be forced to pass on a guy who falls. With that draft, rather than AJ Green in the 3rd, I'd see if one of the big 2 TEs or big 3 QBs fell (it could happen haha), look at Gates or Bradshaw (you can get Wilson relatively cheap later which is nice), perhaps Doug Martin, BJGE (I think he's undervalued, most wouldn't take him in 3rd but I want him on my teams this year) - because I often see one of Harvin or Maclin fall to 5th, and would rather have one of them with one of the aforementioned RBs than Green and the RBs available in the 4th anyway (if you feel the need to take your 3rd WR in the 4th, that is - I would wait til round 5 and see if one of those two falls, allowing for a TE or Qb or RB in round 4).

 

[Ace08]

I don't like going one position three straight times early. It locks you into other positions late and can cause you to be forced to pass on a guy who falls. With that draft, rather than AJ Green in the 3rd, I'd see if one of the big 2 TEs or big 3 QBs fell (it could happen haha), look at Gates or Bradshaw (you can get Wilson relatively cheap later which is nice), perhaps Doug Martin, BJGE (I think he's undervalued, most wouldn't take him in 3rd but I want him on my teams this year) - because I often see one of Harvin or Maclin fall to 5th, and would rather have one of them with one of the aforementioned RBs than Green and the RBs available in the 4th anyway (if you feel the need to take your 3rd WR in the 4th, that is - I would wait til round 5 and see if one of those two falls, allowing for a TE or Qb or RB in round 4).

I hear what you're saying and normally I don't take 3 of anything in a row...but this year that is the way it's shaping up.Bradshaw more often that not does NOT make it to 3.09. If he made it of course I would consider him but I like preparing for the worst case scenario.To me....AJ Green has a chance to be a #1. Any time you have a chance to get a #1 as a #3 and still be able to start him (assuming your league is flex like mine) to me it's too much to pass up.Don't get me wrong...if Bradshaw, T Rich, or even Matthews for whatever crazy reason happen to fall that far of course I'd deviate....but that hasn't been holding true in the vast majority of the mocks I've done. Also...Unless the QB that falls is Stafford I just don't see the upside of taking a QB any earlier than the 7-8th. There is just not a material difference between the likes of Matt Ryan/Eli Manning/Rivers vs Newton or Romo. I should mention I'm one of those who is leery of Newton this year for several reasons, but that's a topic for another thread.

 

[bulger2holt]

I don't like going one position three straight times early. It locks you into other positions late and can cause you to be forced to pass on a guy who falls. With that draft, rather than AJ Green in the 3rd, I'd see if one of the big 2 TEs or big 3 QBs fell (it could happen haha), look at Gates or Bradshaw (you can get Wilson relatively cheap later which is nice), perhaps Doug Martin, BJGE (I think he's undervalued, most wouldn't take him in 3rd but I want him on my teams this year) - because I often see one of Harvin or Maclin fall to 5th, and would rather have one of them with one of the aforementioned RBs than Green and the RBs available in the 4th anyway (if you feel the need to take your 3rd WR in the 4th, that is - I would wait til round 5 and see if one of those two falls, allowing for a TE or Qb or RB in round 4).

we start 3 wr and a flex. Having my wr's of Julio, AJ Green and Harvin looks intriguing. Then having McFadden and Hillis as my rb's looks great too. I would be happy with that team.

 

[Instinctive]

I don't like going one position three straight times early. It locks you into other positions late and can cause you to be forced to pass on a guy who falls. With that draft, rather than AJ Green in the 3rd, I'd see if one of the big 2 TEs or big 3 QBs fell (it could happen haha), look at Gates or Bradshaw (you can get Wilson relatively cheap later which is nice), perhaps Doug Martin, BJGE (I think he's undervalued, most wouldn't take him in 3rd but I want him on my teams this year) - because I often see one of Harvin or Maclin fall to 5th, and would rather have one of them with one of the aforementioned RBs than Green and the RBs available in the 4th anyway (if you feel the need to take your 3rd WR in the 4th, that is - I would wait til round 5 and see if one of those two falls, allowing for a TE or Qb or RB in round 4).

I hear what you're saying and normally I don't take 3 of anything in a row...but this year that is the way it's shaping up.Bradshaw more often that not does NOT make it to 3.09. If he made it of course I would consider him but I like preparing for the worst case scenario.To me....AJ Green has a chance to be a #1. Any time you have a chance to get a #1 as a #3 and still be able to start him (assuming your league is flex like mine) to me it's too much to pass up.Don't get me wrong...if Bradshaw, T Rich, or even Matthews for whatever crazy reason happen to fall that far of course I'd deviate....but that hasn't been holding true in the vast majority of the mocks I've done. Also...Unless the QB that falls is Stafford I just don't see the upside of taking a QB any earlier than the 7-8th. There is just not a material difference between the likes of Matt Ryan/Eli Manning/Rivers vs Newton or Romo. I should mention I'm one of those who is leery of Newton this year for several reasons, but that's a topic for another thread.

You're making a strawman here. I'm against Newton/Stafford as well. If that's how you feel about Green (who I am not seeing late in the 3rd anyway) then I wouldn't take Fitz in the second. I just picked Green because I like a few of the 3rd round RBs. I just think there's a lot of value you guys are missing by locking yourself in to certain picks later on. Not to mention I'd rather have Harvin and/or Maclin anyway, but that's probably another story.I just think that: Julio/RB/Green/Harvin is better than Julio/Fitz/Green/RB, you know? You can keep Fitz and drop Green if you want and I feel the same way. The other point is this: if you lock yourself out of taking a wideout, then you risk missing a golden opportunity if one falls - and one inevitably will.I just think you're losing a lot of flexibility by going RB or WR repeatedly early - it can certainly work, but it can also bite you in the ### later.

 

[bulger2holt]

Would you guys drafting at #7 PPR be happy with this team ?

DMAC

SJax

AJ Green

Harvin

Hillis

Witten

Donald Brown

Cutler

Gresham (possible flex)

Baldwin (KC)

Hightower

S.Moss

Collie

 

[wolfeman]

I really want to take an elite QB at 7. But Dmac is tempting. I have had Run DMC the last 2 seasons, I know the risk. My real question is who to go with in rd 2. We are a 12 team ppr league

 

[wolfeman]

Bump it up, draft is saturday

 

[sbonomo]

If the draft goes like most have, who are you guys taking at 7 ? (12 team PPR)1) Foster2) Rice3) McCoy4) Rodgers5) Mega6) Mathews7) ?CJ2K, Forte, Brady, McFadden, Bress, MJD, Graham

RDMC and not even thinking about it. He is not for the faint of heart but if he stays healthy he has #1 potential. Make sure to draft depth and back up at the position...That is the formula for a championship.

 

[Rick James]

1.7- Aaron Rodgers

2.6- Larry Fitzgerald

3.7- Victor Cruz

4.6- Doug Martin

5.7- Miles Austin

6.6- Donald Brown

This is how I started my PPR draft in the 7-hole. Since this is a keeper league and I kept Rob Gronkowski, my plan was to take Aaron Rodgers #1 overall (having locked up QB1 and TE1or2), and just start grabbing best players available at RB/WR.

After all was said and done my team looks like this:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Josh Freeman

RB: Doug Martin, Donald Brown, Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, Shane Vereen, James Starks

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Jon Baldwin

TE: Rob Gronkowski

K: whatever

DEF: whatever

I'm loaded at QB, TE, and WR. Obvious weakness at RB, but I should be ok. If 1 of the 6 hits (well, James Starks looks like a drop now, lol) my team is a juggernaut.

It obviously helps that I was able to keep Gronkowski in the 10th round...substitute a 5th-round pick of Aaron Hernandez and it's looking just as good.

 

[sbonomo]

1.7- Aaron Rodgers2.6- Larry Fitzgerald3.7- Victor Cruz4.6- Doug Martin5.7- Miles Austin6.6- Donald Brown This is how I started my PPR draft in the 7-hole. Since this is a keeper league and I kept Rob Gronkowski, my plan was to take Aaron Rodgers #1 overall (having locked up QB1 and TE1or2), and just start grabbing best players available at RB/WR.After all was said and done my team looks like this:QB: Aaron Rodgers, Josh FreemanRB: Doug Martin, Donald Brown, Mark Ingram, Ryan Williams, Shane Vereen, James StarksWR: Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice, Jon BaldwinTE: Rob GronkowskiK: whateverDEF: whateverI'm loaded at QB, TE, and WR. Obvious weakness at RB, but I should be ok. If 1 of the 6 hits (well, James Starks looks like a drop now, lol) my team is a juggernaut.It obviously helps that I was able to keep Gronkowski in the 10th round...substitute a 5th-round pick of Aaron Hernandez and it's looking just as good.

How did rogers fall to number 7 in a keeper league? I am assuming at least 12 players were off the board...I cannot imagine he is a 19 player value? you need RB help bad...

 

[theToes]

As I said earlier in the thread my scoring system is heavily weighted toward the QB and they fly off the board early and often.

all of the yardage points are the same, 1 pt for every 25 yds pass/rec/rush with a 5 point bonus at 300 yds and 6pt td's (ppr). The top 3 qb's and the top 3 rb's will be gone by the time I pick. Calvin will be there and I am strongly leaning in that direction but what about this start instead.

Take Stafford at 1.07 and get either Mcfaden or the best available WR at 2.06 (AJ, Fitz, Roddy or Julio).

Because so many people take Qb's early there is a ton of value all of the way through the 2nd round and if I don't take Stafford first he will not make it back to me in the 2nd.

I know this goes counter to alot of the conventional thinking around here but when you put my scoring system into VBD this is the top 10 players

1. Rodgers

2. Foster

3. Rice

4. Brees

5. Brady

6. McCoy

7. Stafford

8. Forte

9. Mega

10. McFadden

Would it be a good start to go Mcfadden in the first Stafford in the 2nd? Because of the drafting tendancies of the other owners I strongly believe I can get the same 2 players going Stafford first and DMC 2nd.

I think Stafford will put up similar numbers to last year.

Any thoughts?

 

[JoePlumber]

if you pass on DMC at 7 you'll be kicking yourself imo

 

[theToes]

if you pass on DMC at 7 you'll be kicking yourself imo

I understand it's a risk but like I said, given the drafting tendancies of the players picking behind me I really believe he will be there in the 2nd.If the 4th ranked qb, according to my scoring system, goes off the borad at 7 a lot of the guys behind me will panic and start reaching.

 

[bulger2holt]

who are you #7 pickers leaning toward in rd 1 ?

 

[tonyftony716]

Ok so I have the 7th pick coming up. I'm keeping Stafford and losing my 6th round pick. Leaning towards McFadden for his upside. I feel if he ever does stay healthy he would be a top 3 back. It's a big if but I'd rather project big than just be average.

I believe my draft will go like this based on other teams keepers and tendencies known:

Pick 1- Foster

Pick 2- Rice

Pick 3- Brees

Pick 4- Calv Johnson (big megatron fan)

Pick 5- McCoy

Pick 6- Brady

One of the 3 bign QB's will be available but I already have stafford. CJ1k will be there but I owned him last year and i'm not excited about doing it again. I'm pretty sure for me though it's down to those 2 . The next pick will get a QB and then there is a drop off with owners having already rostered a few names that would go in these spots and question marks like MJD.

So, in conclusion I don't think McFadden is a reach but you will either be a genius or be kicking yourself the first week he has an injury. Depends on your level of risk you are willing to take. I will say though that if I didn't have Stafford I would grab one of the big 3 QB's .

 

[nordstrom24]

who are you #7 pickers leaning toward in rd 1 ?

I was targeting Calvin Johnson / Drew Brees in my 10 team, PPR league, but the draft actually went:1.01 - Foster1.02 - Cal. Johnson1.03 - Rice1.04 - Rodgers1.05 - Brady1.06 - Brees1.07 (ME) McCoy Yes our QBs do have some value (we get 6 pts per TD), but we also get .05 PPR on RBs, .75 on WR, and 1 PPR on TEs. If I went by VBD then I had McCoy actually very high. I somewhat resigned myself to going QB in the first, TE in the second, and holding on RB. Instead so many people drafted RB's way late (Some teams practically ignored the position) that my team shaped up like this. We do start 1QB, 1RB, 1WR, 1TE, and 3 Off Flex.QB - E Manning, FreemanRB - McCoy, Sproles, Bradshaw, Hillis, J Rodgers, D WilsonWR - Harvin, Bowe, Washington, Mal. Floyd, JeffereyTE - Graham, RudolphI am pretty happy with the depth at RB. Am pretty concerned about the QB situation as Eli's schedule is nasty, but am hoping that I can hit some homeruns each week at flex with Sproles / Bowe / Harvin to offset my weakness at QB....

 

[nordstrom24]

Ok so I have the 7th pick coming up. I'm keeping Stafford and losing my 6th round pick. Leaning towards McFadden for his upside. I feel if he ever does stay healthy he would be a top 3 back. It's a big if but I'd rather project big than just be average. I believe my draft will go like this based on other teams keepers and tendencies knownick 1- FosterPick 2- RicePick 3- BreesPick 4- Calv Johnson (big megatron fan)Pick 5- McCoyPick 6- BradyOne of the 3 bign QB's will be available but I already have stafford. CJ1k will be there but I owned him last year and i'm not excited about doing it again. I'm pretty sure for me though it's down to those 2 . The next pick will get a QB and then there is a drop off with owners having already rostered a few names that would go in these spots and question marks like MJD.So, in conclusion I don't think McFadden is a reach but you will either be a genius or be kicking yourself the first week he has an injury. Depends on your level of risk you are willing to take. I will say though that if I didn't have Stafford I would grab one of the big 3 QB's .

Where is Rodgers? Is he a keeper somewhere? I think you need to go Gronk or Graham here if you feel the QB situation is covered, and don't like the RB's. Grab a RB on the way back, or even WR?

 

[zoonation]

Here's my draft out of the 7 hole (12 teamer, 2 guppies) last night for you guys drafting in the coming days (no distinction btw TE and WR):

Ryan, Matt ATL QB - 7 6.06

Wilson, Russell SEA QB ® - 11 14.06

Hillis, Peyton KCC RB - 7 5.07

McFadden, Darren OAK RB - 5 1.07

Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB - 7 9.07

Starks, James GBP RB (Q) - 10 11.07

Vereen, Shane NEP RB (Q) - 9 12.06

Williams, Ryan ARI RB (P) - 10 8.06

Cobb, Randall GBP WR - 10 13.07

Jones, Julio ATL WR - 7 2.06

Rice, Sidney SEA WR (P) - 11 10.06

Smith, Steve CAR WR (Q) - 6 4.06

Smith, Torrey BAL WR - 8 7.07

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE - 9 3.07

Graham, Shayne HOU PK - 8 16.06

Lions, Detroit DET Def - 5 15.07

 

[tonyftony716]

Ok so I have the 7th pick coming up. I'm keeping Stafford and losing my 6th round pick. Leaning towards McFadden for his upside. I feel if he ever does stay healthy he would be a top 3 back. It's a big if but I'd rather project big than just be average. I believe my draft will go like this based on other teams keepers and tendencies knownick 1- FosterPick 2- RicePick 3- BreesPick 4- Calv Johnson (big megatron fan)Pick 5- McCoyPick 6- BradyOne of the 3 bign QB's will be available but I already have stafford. CJ1k will be there but I owned him last year and i'm not excited about doing it again. I'm pretty sure for me though it's down to those 2 . The next pick will get a QB and then there is a drop off with owners having already rostered a few names that would go in these spots and question marks like MJD.So, in conclusion I don't think McFadden is a reach but you will either be a genius or be kicking yourself the first week he has an injury. Depends on your level of risk you are willing to take. I will say though that if I didn't have Stafford I would grab one of the big 3 QB's .

Where is Rodgers? Is he a keeper somewhere? I think you need to go Gronk or Graham here if you feel the QB situation is covered, and don't like the RB's. Grab a RB on the way back, or even WR?

Rodgers would be available at 7 (based on my projections of my league mates) but I already have stafford. Graham is a keeper.

 

[nordstrom24]

Ok so I have the 7th pick coming up. I'm keeping Stafford and losing my 6th round pick. Leaning towards McFadden for his upside. I feel if he ever does stay healthy he would be a top 3 back. It's a big if but I'd rather project big than just be average. I believe my draft will go like this based on other teams keepers and tendencies knownick 1- FosterPick 2- RicePick 3- BreesPick 4- Calv Johnson (big megatron fan)Pick 5- McCoyPick 6- BradyOne of the 3 bign QB's will be available but I already have stafford. CJ1k will be there but I owned him last year and i'm not excited about doing it again. I'm pretty sure for me though it's down to those 2 . The next pick will get a QB and then there is a drop off with owners having already rostered a few names that would go in these spots and question marks like MJD.So, in conclusion I don't think McFadden is a reach but you will either be a genius or be kicking yourself the first week he has an injury. Depends on your level of risk you are willing to take. I will say though that if I didn't have Stafford I would grab one of the big 3 QB's .

Where is Rodgers? Is he a keeper somewhere? I think you need to go Gronk or Graham here if you feel the QB situation is covered, and don't like the RB's. Grab a RB on the way back, or even WR?

Rodgers would be available at 7 (based on my projections of my league mates) but I already have stafford. Graham is a keeper.

Too bad you don't have a 2QB league (although I would guess Rodgers would be gone!).One strategy may be to grab Rodgers, then try and trade one of the two to a team that is looking for an elite QB? How open is your league to trading? That may be your best bet, if you aren't too excited about Chris Johnson. Maybe you can target the Calvin Johnson owner with Stafford - can you trade before the draft?

 

[dickey moe]

I had the #7 pick in a 12-team PPR league over the weekend. You only have to start two WRs in this league, and I wound up drafting Forte (and picking up Michael Bush as a backup later in the draft). Calvin Johnson went 1.08 FWIW.

 

[TheNext0]

12 teamer - 1 qb 2 rb 3 wr 1 te no flex

1. DeMarco Murray

2. Darren Sproles

3. Victor Cruz

4. Matt Ryan (set off an insane run on QBs)

5. Doug Martin

6. Antonio Gates (3rd TE off the board, Graham went 1.11 and Gronk went 3.6!)

7. Reggie Wayne

8. Malcom Floyd

9. Nate Washington

10. Toby Gerhart

11. Ryan Williams

12. Joe Flacco

13. Danny Amendola

14. Jacquizz Rodgers

15. Jerome Simpson

The Doug Martin pick I loved, but it cost me most of the #2 WRs I was targeting. I think the Gates slip helped offset that a bit. I feel really good about Murray in the first with Martin on my bench. Good luck to the rest of the 7s!

 

[Gawain]

This was my FBGPC draft out of the 7 hole.

Quarterbacks:

Newton (3), Roethlisberger (11)

Running Backs:

McFadden (1), Charles (2), Wells (7), Royster (12), Dan. Thomas (14), McKnight (18), R. Brown (20)

Wide Receivers:

Harvin (4), V. Jackson (5), M. Floyd (9), L. Robinson (13), James Jones (17), E. Royal (19)

Tight Ends:

F. Davis (6), Gonzalez (8), Keller (10)

Defense:

NY Giants (15)

Kicker:

Gostkowski (16)