picking players within tiers (1 Viewer)

[moleculo]

hypothetically speaking, suppose there are 5 backs within a given tier - let's call them A, B, C, D, and E. We have spent days and days polishing our projections, and here is what we have:

ru rus yd ru TD rec rec yd rec td f.p.a 235 1011 8 45 338 2 239.9b 215 1183 6 40 320 2 238.3c 255 1199 8 35 263 1 235.2d 240 1008 6 45 383 2 232.1e 260 1118 6 43 344 1 231.2
As you can see, they are all within 9 fantasy points for the season, or roughly 0.6 points per game. I've got to believe that the the difference in projected values is very small, compared to the uncertainty in projections in general...in my book, these guys are all equivalent.

how do you pick which one to take?

Assumptions: 1 point per reception, 6 points per TD, 0.1 points per yard.

These projections are lifted from Dodds RB projections, but right now, I'm not going to say who each line is. This isn't an exercise in arguing about favorite players, I'm trying to come up with some way to rationally discriminate between similar players and draw out a little more separation. In the heat of a draft, you are likely to pull a name from the top of a list, where the guy just below him might be essentially equivalent or better...how that choice should be made is interesting, I think.

 

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I generally have gut feelings on most every player based on pre-season reading/research/observation. I use projections as only part of the equation.

Within that tier there are guys with more upside... guys with injury risk... etc. Those factors all come into play. It depends if I'm looking for the safe pick, the upside guy, etc with that pick.

Very rarely do I ever come into a situation where I simply have no lean whatsoever within a 3-5 player tier. If that's the case, then I take a look at bye weeks or playoff schedule (which can be unreliable) as a tie breaker.

For example in that tier you listed you have a couple guys coming off injuries, a guy who's potentially in decline due to age...etc.

I'd say that if you're looking for upside you take b or c

If you're looking for the "safe" pick with a high floor you might look at e or a

I'm not a big fan of d due to potential competition for carries.

 

[moleculo]

I generally have gut feelings on most every player based on pre-season reading/research/observation. I use projections as only part of the equation. Within that tier there are guys with more upside... guys with injury risk... etc. Those factors all come into play. It depends if I'm looking for the safe pick, the upside guy, etc with that pick. Very rarely do I ever come into a situation where I simply have no lean whatsoever within a 3-5 player tier. If that's the case, then I take a look at bye weeks or playoff schedule (which can be unreliable) as a tie breaker.

I hear ya, and that's what I've done in the past. What happens though, is that your gut was used to generate the projections, so by going with your gut, you are essentially doubling down. That's ok because after all, it's your team. I'm wondering if there may be a different way to look at things.I have a particular thought about how to do this, just want to see if anyone else is thinking along the same lines.

 

[moleculo]

For example in that tier you listed you have a couple guys coming off injuries, a guy who's potentially in decline due to age...etc.I'd say that if you're looking for upside you take b or cIf you're looking for the "safe" pick with a high floor you might look at e or aI'm not a big fan of d due to potential competition for carries.

no fair peaking

 

[MAC_32]

There are 2 big reasons I don't do projections and this is one of them. Relying on math to make your decisions just makes me queezy. I'll use WR as an example since I think it's the most difficult group to work through, when I'm filtering through my tiers...

-Does he have the talent to be a #1? #2?

-Who is his QB?

-Is he expected to take on a greater role? lesser role? does he have the skills to excel in a greater role? if demoted does he have the ability to earn his former role back?

-Is there anything goofy in his previous seasons numbers?

-Does he have any potential health issues?

-Does he have idiot issues?

-Is there a threat to his role currently behind him on the depth chart?

-Is there a new regime and he is a hold over from a previous one? Did the new one draft his potential replacement?

That usually covers it. The above really helped in Demaryius being ranked above Dez on my final cheat sheet, answers were neutral until I got to the idiot question - only thing that could change it at this point is if something with Demaryius' achilles flares up.

 

[David Yudkin]

I generally go with the player that is well groomed and better looking. I don't like my squad to look like a bunch of riff raff. The more metro, the better.

In practical reality, I would map out a plan to figure out which guy I could get the latest in a draft and then target that player (or maybe the last couple in that tier so not to miss out entirely).