Player Spotlight: Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

[The Man with the Plan]

I could see AD not necessarily busting but performing below expectations. The thing with AD is that the vast majority of his fantasy point totals last season come from his rushing stats because he isn't used much as a receiver (so far at least).

What that means order for him to put up stud-like numbers, he has to either receive a ton of carries (which hasn't happened yet) and/or he has to make the most of his carries with a high per carry average (which has happened). If his average went down from an astronomical 5.7 to just very good at 4.7 his stats would take a pretty big hit. With Chester Taylor around he probably won't average more than 20 carries per game so in order to have a great season he'll have to have a high average and score many touchdowns (which we all know can fluctuate greatly from year-to-year). That's exactly what happened last season with Peterson. We'll see if it can happen again. I think it can.

If there's one thing that I've learned from playing fantasy football long enough is that the only sure thing is that there are no sure things. No player or situation is perfect and you have to take everything into account positive and negative before deciding which players to draft.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I don't think its ludicrous to think AP could get 20 TDs. Great line, great D, average QB. If this team is going to score, its going to most often from AP IMO...I think he gets 20+ too

You're not paying attention.... saying 20 TDs is his FLOOR is ludicrous.

1500 yards and 12 td's would be a GREAT season. And people are acting like projecting that total is an insult??!?!!? I believe he's capable of 20+ td's but imo that's his upside...and who actually makes projections for a person's ceiling?

 

[benbadman]

For those of us with Peterson already in a keeper league, or those who draft in the top 4 in a redraft and get Peterson: are you targeting Chester Taylor as a handcuff? I dont think Taylor makes sense to target as a RB3, but as an *early RB4* he is a top-flight insurance policy.

I have this feeling in my gut like I did in 2005--when I took Priest Holmes, then followed that up with Larry Johnson in round 5. Way early for a handcuff, but he carried my team. Heck starting both players is a good option. And in 2008 I feel the same way about the Vikings RBs. The Vikings will likely repeat or exceed their 22 rushing TDs from 2007. That's nearly 1.5 TDs per game. When you think about a solid fantasy lineup you want a TD from your RB1 every week and a TD from your RB2 every other week, at least. I could definitely foresee scenarios where my regular RB2 or RB3 is on bye or injured, so I start both AP & Chester.

So the question is when do you target Taylor... as the 70-90th player off the board? Before you take a QB1 or QB2 if you are goin QBBC and are looking for value in the QB11-QB15 range? Sure alot of this depends on knowing the people you are drafting with. Some leagues Taylor will be available in round 12+, in some he may go in round 7 or 8.

 

[T Bell]

seems we have 2 groups:

those who project ADP to have a very good year (slight regression in YPC, but more carries) with ~ 1600-1800 total yards and 12-15 TDs;

and those who project ADP to go absolutely bezerk and go for 2k+ total yards and 20+ TDs.

I can see either group being right. Obviously much safer to project the former, and hope for the latter. After Wood has enough projections for his survey, hopefully the discussion will trend toward the likelihood of ADP meeting his ADP.

When you draft a RB in the top 5, you don't necessarily need him to finish first, you just can't have him bust. What is ADP's risk of bust compared to LT2, SJax, and Addai?

You're probably right here, but what's amazing is that that probably doesn't affect his draft position. I think he goes 1.01 in any event in the majority of leagues. What that debate does affect, however, is the trade value of the 1.01.

 

[BADDHIPP]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's.

like i said If Healthy...................

 

[Raider Nation]

He's my prized keeper, and I just found my draft day t-shirt...

LINK



If this will create bad karma and cause an injury, I will rethink the idea.

 

[David Yudkin]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

 

[Raider Nation]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

Too low?

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

Too low?

I think thats about right. To think he will be worsre in ypc vs his rookie year is silly.. I have read David is down on him this year, and he's not going to be happy when he finishes # this year. If the offensive cord tries to make this a rbbc he will be run out of town short of a superbowl win.

 

[Banger]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

Too low?

I think thats about right. To think he will be worsre in ypc vs his rookie year is silly.. I have read David is down on him this year, and he's not going to be happy when he finishes # this year. If the offensive cord tries to make this a rbbc he will be run out of town short of a superbowl win.

I think ADP is a good RB but some of the expectations are a little crazy. Look back at some of the LJ posts a few years ago....

 

[Raider Nation]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

Too low?

I think thats about right. To think he will be worsre in ypc vs his rookie year is silly.. I have read David is down on him this year, and he's not going to be happy when he finishes # this year. If the offensive cord tries to make this a rbbc he will be run out of town short of a superbowl win.

I think ADP is a good RB but some of the expectations are a little crazy. Look back at some of the LJ posts a few years ago....

LJ's O-line went from great to awful, seemingly overnight. AD's line is still top-notch.

 

[Banger]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

Too low?

I think thats about right. To think he will be worsre in ypc vs his rookie year is silly.. I have read David is down on him this year, and he's not going to be happy when he finishes # this year. If the offensive cord tries to make this a rbbc he will be run out of town short of a superbowl win.

I think ADP is a good RB but some of the expectations are a little crazy. Look back at some of the LJ posts a few years ago....

LJ's O-line went from great to awful, seemingly overnight. AD's line is still top-notch.

I understand all that. LJ had a QB too.

 

[David Yudkin]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

Too low?

I think thats about right. To think he will be worsre in ypc vs his rookie year is silly.. I have read David is down on him this year, and he's not going to be happy when he finishes # this year. If the offensive cord tries to make this a rbbc he will be run out of town short of a superbowl win.

That would explain why I have ADP reanked as the #1 back this year.Only one RB has ever had a 6.4 ypc in a season with 250 carries (Jim Brown). Only 3 players have had 150 carries and a 6.0 ypc. No RB has ever had 200 carries and a 5.5 ypc in back to back seasons (although Portis did when you round off his ypc).So to expect ADP to go from a 5.6 to a 6.4 is crazt talk in my book and has no bearing on his fantasy rankings as far as I'm concerned. He can still get a zillon yards and TD, but not at almost six and a half yards per pop.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Is anybody even slightly concerned that he's averaging a 2.8 ypc in the preseason? Granted it is only the preseason but he's had 20 carries with a long of 11 yards.

 

[AnonymousBob]

If healthy - 250 carries 1600 yds 12 td's 35 rec 525 yds 4 td's. like i said If Healthy...................

A 6.4 ypc?

Too low?

I think thats about right. To think he will be worsre in ypc vs his rookie year is silly.. I have read David is down on him this year, and he's not going to be happy when he finishes # this year. If the offensive cord tries to make this a rbbc he will be run out of town short of a superbowl win.

So your logic is the more experience a player has the better they should do in the league? Why isn't LT getting 12 yards a carry?

 

[cjack]

Is anybody even slightly concerned that he's averaging a 2.8 ypc in the preseason? Granted it is only the preseason but he's had 20 carries with a long of 11 yards.

Not really, most of that was the result of one game (against the Bears I think) where he was without his starting QB and both starting WRs. Very small sample as well.

 

[Frank Black]

Is anybody even slightly concerned that he's averaging a 2.8 ypc in the preseason? Granted it is only the preseason but he's had 20 carries with a long of 11 yards.

Doesn't anyone remember when the likes of Priest Holmes and other elite RBs in their prime had similar preseason stats?

 

[The Hank]

Is anybody even slightly concerned that he's averaging a 2.8 ypc in the preseason? Granted it is only the preseason but he's had 20 carries with a long of 11 yards.

0% Concerned.The reason why is these guys don't gameplan against defenses, there is no rhyme or reason to the play calls, nor do the players give 110% during a preseason game. They are practicing new plays which results in mistakes (i.e. LOW YPC) or a fluke 75 td. Anyone who analyzes first string O's during preseason as they would regular season will have an awful squad with Rashied Davis, David Clowney and Josh Morgan as their starting WRs, Jesse Chatman and Gary Russell as their RBs, Erik Ainge as their QB, etc.Please dont overanalyze what first string O's do, it leads to bad drafting/front office moves.

 

[AnonymousBob]

So...when ADP was blowing up in the last preseason, his stock went up because he was looking fantastic. But now that he's looking horrible we'll go ahead and dismiss everything?

The Shark Pool sure is a strange place.

 

[Ilov80s]

So...when ADP was blowing up in the last preseason, his stock went up because he was looking fantastic. But now that he's looking horrible we'll go ahead and dismiss everything?The Shark Pool sure is a strange place.

I think there is a difference between a rookie who has something to prove and a veteran to unseat as opposed to a 2nd year player coming off one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. He was excited and eager to play in the NFL last preseason, this preseason he is just waiting for the real action to start.

 

[The Hank]

So...when ADP was blowing up in the last preseason, his stock went up because he was looking fantastic. But now that he's looking horrible we'll go ahead and dismiss everything?The Shark Pool sure is a strange place.

I think there is a difference between a rookie who has something to prove and a veteran to unseat as opposed to a 2nd year player coming off one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. He was excited and eager to play in the NFL last preseason, this preseason he is just waiting for the real action to start.

 

[The Hank]

So...when ADP was blowing up in the last preseason, his stock went up because he was looking fantastic. But now that he's looking horrible we'll go ahead and dismiss everything?

The Shark Pool sure is a strange place.

Look at stats from last year's preseason: linkWillie Parker

2007 Preseason: 39 yds 1 TD (2.6 YPC)

2007 Regular Season: 1316 Yds 2 TD (4.1 YPC)

Fred Taylor

2007 Preseason: 38 yds 1 TD (3.8 ypc)

2007 Regular Season: 1202 yds 5 TDs (5.2 YPC)

Willis McGahee

2007 Preseason: 47 yds 0 TD (2.6 YPC)

2007 Regular Season: 1207 yds 7 TDs (4.1 YPC)

etc...

I could go on really, pre-season stats mean diddly. Starters hardly get any work, and most of the stuff they run is brand new so it'll most likely not work. Plus defenses are executing blitzes every play usually so trying to gauge how a starting RB will do based on his preseason stats is very hard. Only coaches/team personnel are blessed with that ability.

Im not saying that you are wrong by being concerned as an owner. I am just pointing out that you shouldnt be concerned based on stats alone. I was concerned as an owner because I thought he may get hurt in pointless games! But in no way was I concerned on his YPC or Yardage, as they are frivolous and dont hold alot of meaning.