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Player Spotlight: Brandon Jacobs (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants

Player Page Link: Brandon Jacobs Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
I am totally sold on Jacobs, who was 3rd or 4th RB in PPG in many leagues last year. I think he may well be the SOD where he is being drafted. He will be leaned on heavily and should deliver. No idea why he is often being projected at fewer TDs this year than last, when he played on 13 games.

245 carries 1150 yards

25 receptions for 200 yards

16 total TDs

 
gonzobill5 said:
260 carries 1350 yards

20 receptions for 180 yards

18 total TDs

Relatively healthy year and a top 5 finish.
Any particular reason why you have Jacobs finishing with a career high 5.2 ypc? I'm not trying to be jerk, I'm just sincerely curious.I like Jacobs more as a real NFL back vs. fantasy back. I love to watch the guy run. However, the added carries he may receive this year worry me about the potential for a breakdown. Last year he posted 15 total TDs, yet the year before, only finished with 6 total TDs. I think the NYG offense will struggle a little bit more than people might expect.

240 carries, 1152 yards, 11 TDs

18 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD

 
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# of RB since 1960 to have back-to-back-to-back seasons with 200 carries and a 5.0 ypc: 3 (Leroy Kelly, Marshall Faulk, and Jim Brown).

To be technical, Jacobs didn't average a full 5.0 ypc last year (his ypc gets rounded up to 5.0 though). But the point is that it's not easy doing that 3 years consecutively.

 
Brandon Jacobs is a very fast fullback. He enjoys running over and through people. He tends to smash a lot of defenders and make the "he got jacked up" highlight reels with regularity. And because of these spectacular crashes, he also has a tendency to get nicked up and miss a few games. I think that it would be a great plan for him to learn to slide out of bounds occasionally.

I do enjoy watching him play and think that the Giants have the running game blocking and the back up RBs to keep Brandon Jacobs fresh. He is outstanding late in the game as the defense wears down and I think that the Giants will play to their strengths with defense and more ball control in 09.

In 07, he played 11 games and averaged 18 carries per game and 5.0 ypc. In 08, he played in 13 games, but averaged less caries at 17 per game and kept the 5.0 ypc. For his career, he has had only ten games with over twenty carries. He has only 4o receptions in four years. He needs to get the TDs to be the high scoring fantasy option because he does not get ample opportunities otherwise. He has averaged 5.0 ypc for two consecutive years, pointed out by David Yudkin to be extremely rare. He may do it again in 09 as he has a great offensive line and he seems to always fall forward, but he has not yet ever been the pound them in the ground RB. I see the Giants mixing in Bradshaw and the rookie enought to keep Jacobs fresh. I believe that his ADP of RB13 and 18th overall is not low for his expectations.

Brandon Jacobs 280 carries 1288 yards 4.6 ypc 16 catches 112 yds 7.0 ypc and 14 total TDs

 
# of RB since 1960 to have back-to-back-to-back seasons with 200 carries and a 5.0 ypc: 3 (Leroy Kelly, Marshall Faulk, and Jim Brown).To be technical, Jacobs didn't average a full 5.0 ypc last year (his ypc gets rounded up to 5.0 though). But the point is that it's not easy doing that 3 years consecutively.
The flipside to this is the # of RB since 1960 to have back-to-back seasons with 200 carries and a 5.0 ypc: 9Obviously the 3 you listed: Kelly, Faulk, BrownThe others:Jacobs Jim Taylor (61-62)OJ Simpson (73, 75-76)Barry Sanders (89-90, 94, 96-97)Portis (02-03)Tiki Barber (05-06)In other words, that's a pretty distinguished list to be in anyway. And, 37% of the RB's who did do it two years in a row did it again to make it 3 in a row. In addition to that, 2 more of the guys who didn't get 3 in a row had 3 in 4 years (Sanders and Simpson). Thus, 67% of the RBs who did it 2 years in a row were able to add a 3rd within a 4 yr period.So, while getting a 5.0 ypc average over 200+ carries for 3 straight years is pretty rare and mostly unchartered territory, doing it twice in a row is as well. Jacobs has already done that. Looking at what those others on the list have done, I think his chances of reaching that plateau again are considerably better than you're making them out to be.
 
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gonzobill5 said:
260 carries 1350 yards

20 receptions for 180 yards

18 total TDs

Relatively healthy year and a top 5 finish.
Any particular reason why you have Jacobs finishing with a career high 5.2 ypc? I'm not trying to be jerk, I'm just sincerely curious.I like Jacobs more as a real NFL back vs. fantasy back. I love to watch the guy run. However, the added carries he may receive this year worry me about the potential for a breakdown. Last year he posted 15 total TDs, yet the year before, only finished with 6 total TDs. I think the NYG offense will struggle a little bit more than people might expect.

240 carries, 1152 yards, 11 TDs

18 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD
Fair point. My projection comes from my assumption that Jacobs will pick up a chunk of Ward's workload - who averaged 5.6 ypc last year. Though that number is probably inflated by his RIDICULOUS game against carolina. Overall, I have been extremely impressed with the Giants running game. In the games I saw at the end of the year (all except WAS), I don't think it suffered much without Plax. They faced some really tough defenses in those games, too. Philly really loaded up to stop him, and were only moderately successful.

One thing that really stands out to me is that Jacobs and Ward both had excellent ypc because of their numerous 15, 20 yard runs, not because of 80 or 90 yarders. 5.2 might be a bit hefty, but to be honest it's probably more likely then my prediction that he'll stay healthy.

 
# of RB since 1960 to have back-to-back-to-back seasons with 200 carries and a 5.0 ypc: 3 (Leroy Kelly, Marshall Faulk, and Jim Brown).To be technical, Jacobs didn't average a full 5.0 ypc last year (his ypc gets rounded up to 5.0 though). But the point is that it's not easy doing that 3 years consecutively.
The flipside to this is the # of RB since 1960 to have back-to-back seasons with 200 carries and a 5.0 ypc: 9Obviously the 3 you listed: Kelly, Faulk, BrownThe others:Jacobs Jim Taylor (61-62)OJ Simpson (73, 75-76)Barry Sanders (89-90, 94, 96-97)Portis (02-03)Tiki Barber (05-06)In other words, that's a pretty distinguished list to be in anyway. And, 37% of the RB's who did do it two years in a row did it again to make it 3 in a row. In addition to that, 2 more of the guys who didn't get 3 in a row had 3 in 4 years (Sanders and Simpson). Thus, 67% of the RBs who did it 2 years in a row were able to add a 3rd within a 4 yr period.So, while getting a 5.0 ypc average over 200+ carries for 3 straight years is pretty rare and mostly unchartered territory, doing it twice in a row is as well. Jacobs has already done that. Looking at what those others on the list have done, I think his chances of reaching that plateau again are considerably better than you're making them out to be.
Very good post. All offseason I've heard about how DeAngelo Williams will not come close to 2008's numbers because only "the best of the best" running backs have those kinds of seasons. What kind of argument is that? I wouldn't be surprised to see DeAngelo and Jacobs finish #1 and #2 this year and people will be scratching their heads as to why some guy who was picking near the turn landed both on his team.ETA: noticed that the Giants have had a RB who has gone over 200 carries and 5.0 for FOUR consecutive years.
 
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Jacob's is a beast who finally has overcome the injury bug and will be the centerpiece of the entire Giant offense in 2009. No Ward to share his workload, no Burress to steal from him in the red zone, but still one of the best OL's in the game and it's all his and his alone. Considering his ADP, Jacobs is looking like the best RB value in FF this season, regardless of scoring system.

Carries 312

Yards 1,410

Recepts 32

Yards 274

Total TD's 16

 
gonzobill5 said:
260 carries 1350 yards

20 receptions for 180 yards

18 total TDs

Relatively healthy year and a top 5 finish.
Any particular reason why you have Jacobs finishing with a career high 5.2 ypc? I'm not trying to be jerk, I'm just sincerely curious.I like Jacobs more as a real NFL back vs. fantasy back. I love to watch the guy run. However, the added carries he may receive this year worry me about the potential for a breakdown. Last year he posted 15 total TDs, yet the year before, only finished with 6 total TDs. I think the NYG offense will struggle a little bit more than people might expect.

240 carries, 1152 yards, 11 TDs

18 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD
Fair point. My projection comes from my assumption that Jacobs will pick up a chunk of Ward's workload - who averaged 5.6 ypc last year. Though that number is probably inflated by his RIDICULOUS game against carolina. Overall, I have been extremely impressed with the Giants running game. In the games I saw at the end of the year (all except WAS), I don't think it suffered much without Plax. They faced some really tough defenses in those games, too. Philly really loaded up to stop him, and were only moderately successful.

One thing that really stands out to me is that Jacobs and Ward both had excellent ypc because of their numerous 15, 20 yard runs, not because of 80 or 90 yarders. 5.2 might be a bit hefty, but to be honest it's probably more likely then my prediction that he'll stay healthy.
jacobs hurt both knees last year and was a trooper at the end of the year only sitting for a game. In all essence, the Giants lost their all time leading WR, their leading WR and their best RB running his best after starting the year without their top DE, a pro bowler. They got hit pretty hard with injuries
 
gonzobill5 said:
260 carries 1350 yards

20 receptions for 180 yards

18 total TDs

Relatively healthy year and a top 5 finish.
Any particular reason why you have Jacobs finishing with a career high 5.2 ypc? I'm not trying to be jerk, I'm just sincerely curious.I like Jacobs more as a real NFL back vs. fantasy back. I love to watch the guy run. However, the added carries he may receive this year worry me about the potential for a breakdown. Last year he posted 15 total TDs, yet the year before, only finished with 6 total TDs. I think the NYG offense will struggle a little bit more than people might expect.

240 carries, 1152 yards, 11 TDs

18 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD
Fair point. My projection comes from my assumption that Jacobs will pick up a chunk of Ward's workload - who averaged 5.6 ypc last year. Though that number is probably inflated by his RIDICULOUS game against carolina. Overall, I have been extremely impressed with the Giants running game. In the games I saw at the end of the year (all except WAS), I don't think it suffered much without Plax. They faced some really tough defenses in those games, too. Philly really loaded up to stop him, and were only moderately successful.

One thing that really stands out to me is that Jacobs and Ward both had excellent ypc because of their numerous 15, 20 yard runs, not because of 80 or 90 yarders. 5.2 might be a bit hefty, but to be honest it's probably more likely then my prediction that he'll stay healthy.
Solid explanation. Thanks.
 
I sold him in all leagues....

In Non-PPR Redraft, hes a late 1st / early 2nd - hes was #3 in PPG in Non-PPR

In PPR - he finished around RB20 in what was most likely his career season for very close to it. The Guy won't sniff RB10 in PPR, I like BJ the NFL player... but not BJ the Fantasy player. I say his career will be over before hes 30 and hes already very close to age 27.

Was underrated for the last 2 seasons and now this season he'll be overrated

Most likely will get under 240 touches / under 10 Recs / ceiling of 1200 total w/ the edge of double digit TDs

a Low RB2 in PPR Dynasties.

220 Carries / 1000 / 12 TDs

 
with the Giants having the best OL in football and young recievers, does Jacobs see more stacked lines and can the OL handle it? I saw what they did to Baltimore last year.. made them look REALLY bad. How many of the passes Ward got will go to Jacobs? Do the Giants have ANY other goal line threat now with Plax gone? The Giants had around 500 carries last year, is there any reason besides injury concern to think he will get anything less than 250-270?

280-1358-16, 20-162-0

This guy could end up being a steal in PPR leagues, and great value in all others.

 
Jacob's is a beast who finally has overcome the injury bug and will be the centerpiece of the entire Giant offense in 2009. No Ward to share his workload, no Burress to steal from him in the red zone, but still one of the best OL's in the game and it's all his and his alone. Considering his ADP, Jacobs is looking like the best RB value in FF this season, regardless of scoring system.Carries 312Yards 1,410Recepts 32Yards 274Total TD's 16
312 carries :popcorn: ;)
 
two_dollars said:
with the Giants having the best OL in football and young recievers, does Jacobs see more stacked lines and can the OL handle it? I saw what they did to Baltimore last year.. made them look REALLY bad. How many of the passes Ward got will go to Jacobs? Do the Giants have ANY other goal line threat now with Plax gone? The Giants had around 500 carries last year, is there any reason besides injury concern to think he will get anything less than 250-270?

280-1358-16, 20-162-0

This guy could end up being a steal in PPR leagues, and great value in all others.
As a huge Giants fan, hopefully not many.Jacobs has had bad to worse than bad hands to date. Unless this suddenly changes, I would expect to see Bradshaw or another back emerge as the leading receiver out of the backfield.

 
two_dollars said:
with the Giants having the best OL in football and young recievers, does Jacobs see more stacked lines and can the OL handle it? I saw what they did to Baltimore last year.. made them look REALLY bad. How many of the passes Ward got will go to Jacobs? Do the Giants have ANY other goal line threat now with Plax gone? The Giants had around 500 carries last year, is there any reason besides injury concern to think he will get anything less than 250-270?

280-1358-16, 20-162-0

This guy could end up being a steal in PPR leagues, and great value in all others.
As a huge Giants fan, hopefully not many.Jacobs has had bad to worse than bad hands to date. Unless this suddenly changes, I would expect to see Bradshaw or another back emerge as the leading receiver out of the backfield.
oh no doubt. I was refering to steal/value because of ADP, not that he'll get the lions share of receptions.. I wasn't very clear on my reasoning, my bad.
 
Jacob's is a beast who finally has overcome the injury bug and will be the centerpiece of the entire Giant offense in 2009. No Ward to share his workload, no Burress to steal from him in the red zone, but still one of the best OL's in the game and it's all his and his alone. Considering his ADP, Jacobs is looking like the best RB value in FF this season, regardless of scoring system.Carries 312Yards 1,410Recepts 32Yards 274Total TD's 16
I'm not sure you could be MORE wrong. What a miss.
 
Jacob's is a beast who finally has overcome the injury bug and will be the centerpiece of the entire Giant offense in 2009. No Ward to share his workload, no Burress to steal from him in the red zone, but still one of the best OL's in the game and it's all his and his alone. Considering his ADP, Jacobs is looking like the best RB value in FF this season, regardless of scoring system.Carries 312Yards 1,410Recepts 32Yards 274Total TD's 16
I'm not sure you could be MORE wrong. What a miss.
lol I think he destroys Tampas defense this week
 
any reason? I've wathced the games, and it is almost like the Giants aren't even trying to get jacobs going. True both the cowboys and skins put 8 men in the box and dared eli to beat em, but is now the book on the g-men, and thus time to trade him? Problem is you need a blowup weekend to deal him really.
 
any reason? I've wathced the games, and it is almost like the Giants aren't even trying to get jacobs going. True both the cowboys and skins put 8 men in the box and dared eli to beat em, but is now the book on the g-men, and thus time to trade him? Problem is you need a blowup weekend to deal him really.
Buy low means to try and acquire him from an owner who is unhappy with his lack of production so far.
 
any reason? I've wathced the games, and it is almost like the Giants aren't even trying to get jacobs going. True both the cowboys and skins put 8 men in the box and dared eli to beat em, but is now the book on the g-men, and thus time to trade him? Problem is you need a blowup weekend to deal him really.
Up to this point, the opposing defenses haven't respected the Giant's passing offense.With the aerial performance against the Cowboys, this will likely change.
 
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any reason? I've wathced the games, and it is almost like the Giants aren't even trying to get jacobs going. True both the cowboys and skins put 8 men in the box and dared eli to beat em, but is now the book on the g-men, and thus time to trade him? Problem is you need a blowup weekend to deal him really.
Up to this point, the opposing defenses haven't respected the Giant's passing offense.With the aerial performance against the Cowboys, this will likely change.
I think teams will begin to respect the pass if the passing game continues to thrive and that'll open up the running game. I think it might take a couple more games though. The Dallas secondary got torched by the Giants but Tampa threw pretty good against them too. Washington has a good defense so that helps in showing the Giants can pass against a good defense. NYG don't face a top defense till week 8 in Philly. I think the running lanes should open up before then though.
 
any reason? I've wathced the games, and it is almost like the Giants aren't even trying to get jacobs going. True both the cowboys and skins put 8 men in the box and dared eli to beat em, but is now the book on the g-men, and thus time to trade him? Problem is you need a blowup weekend to deal him really.
Buy low means to try and acquire him from an owner who is unhappy with his lack of production so far.
thanks dictionary.com. how about answering the WHY you'd want too...
 
any reason? I've wathced the games, and it is almost like the Giants aren't even trying to get jacobs going. True both the cowboys and skins put 8 men in the box and dared eli to beat em, but is now the book on the g-men, and thus time to trade him? Problem is you need a blowup weekend to deal him really.
Buy low means to try and acquire him from an owner who is unhappy with his lack of production so far.
thanks dictionary.com. how about answering the WHY you'd want too...
Because he's not going to rush for 832 yards and zero TD's this year? :rolleyes:
 
Are any of the Jacobs owners out there worried about his lack of production? I understand and agree with the comments people have made about defenses putting 8 in the box and selling out to stop the run but Bradshaw, who has been facing the same 8 man fronts is averaging 1.3 YPC more than Jacobs. In 32 carries Jacobs has 104 yards for a 3.3 YPC average. In the same games Bradshaw has 21 carries for 97 yards and a 4.6 YPC average. They have been splitting series so it's not like Bradshaw is coming in on 3rd and long and padding his stats that way. It appears to currently be a 60:40 split.

 
I think it will stay a 60/40 split, which is fine. He's on pace to carry the ball 256 times this year, which is about what I figured he'd get. As the NYG passing attack opens things up for the run, his yardage totals will go up. Remember, he didn't score a TD in his first two games last year either, then put up 15 in 11 games from that point on (6 in the next 4 weeks.) Even if he splits with Bradshaw, he's still going to get the GL looks, which will lead to scoring. Way too early to panic.

 
Are any of the Jacobs owners out there worried about his lack of production? I understand and agree with the comments people have made about defenses putting 8 in the box and selling out to stop the run but Bradshaw, who has been facing the same 8 man fronts is averaging 1.3 YPC more than Jacobs. In 32 carries Jacobs has 104 yards for a 3.3 YPC average. In the same games Bradshaw has 21 carries for 97 yards and a 4.6 YPC average. They have been splitting series so it's not like Bradshaw is coming in on 3rd and long and padding his stats that way. It appears to currently be a 60:40 split.
Has Bradshaw been facing the same 8 man fronts?
 
TB, KC, OAK, NO, ARI- thats the upcoming schedule for the NYGs. I get the feeling they will be running more effectively than the first two games. Call it a hunch.

 
I got offered (my) Knowshon for (his) Brandon Jacobs in a keep 10 PPR league. Other RBs are MB3, BWest, and Reggie Bush. What do you think?

 
baconisgood said:
TB, KC, OAK, NO, ARI- thats the upcoming schedule for the NYGs. I get the feeling they will be running more effectively than the first two games. Call it a hunch.
I think this is the best reason to not panic. But if no production by week 4, I get worried
 
TB, KC, OAK, NO, ARI- thats the upcoming schedule for the NYGs. I get the feeling they will be running more effectively than the first two games. Call it a hunch.
I think this is the best reason to not panic. But if no production by week 4, I get worried
Week 4 has passed. One TD, and decent yards over the past couple weeks. Any reason to panic yet? Or is the NYG running game about to hit its groove. Nice schedule ahead for the next month or so
 

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