Player Spotlight: Cedric Benson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Cedric Benson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[brakeyawself]

1100 and 9

Think he's finally found a system he can be mediocre in and succeed. If he gets 250-300 carries I think he will achieve those numbers. I guess the biggest question though is does he get those carries throughout the season? I see a late bloomer, blooming.

 

[Coboney]

Benson is a classic situation of a lot of carries and how well can a mediocre runner do with them. Overall He'll put up fine fantasy numbers but will probably end up getting replaced after the season as his performance and YPC will be, unsurprisingly, mediocre.

275-1073-6- 25-212-1

I will admit there is upside here and that I am taking a pretty pestimistic view point on Benson.

This is at 3.9 YPC which is between his 07/08 line (3.45) and his 05/06 line (4.1) leaning to the higher end. In addition this assumes that Cincinatti will be pass happy which while it features their talent Benson may be given more carries due to an improving defense. Realistically I expect that Benson will be somewhat inconsistant and be a great matchup play against teams where they can run the clock and be much poorer vs good teams where its the Carson Palmer show.

Upside

- Realizes Top of R1 Talent and averages 4.5 or more YPC with an improved passing game and Andre Smith runblocking

- Carson Palmer and passing game click

- Gets more then 300 carries

Downside

- Continues his poor performance as a full time starter

- Replaced by a backup (Bernard Scott?) ( Very unlikely)

- Defense falls apart again leading to decreased run attempts.

 

[Tanner9919]

310/1240/10 ( 4.0 avg)

Rudi Johnson-esque performance

will be the workhorse back on a team that loves to use one RB and one RB only, No threat of RBBC here, which means Benson represents strong value on draft day. Performed well last year despite playing with Fitzpatrick under center..

now enter Carson Palmer: this changes everything.

had more carries over final 8 weeks of 2008 season than all but 2 RB's.

solid numbers from a guy who'll be drafted later than most!

 

[todisco1]

1180 yds, 8 TDs, 24 catches, 150 yds

I like him to put up #2 numbers at a #3/#4 price. A lot rests on Palmer's health - if he's back, then I think there will be holes for Benson, who ran hard the second half of the season. A lot of people have written him off, simply assuming he's a bust, but I think Benson has seen the light and will be a solid, though unspectacular producer.

 

[BoulderBob]

He averaged 3.5ypc last season, and while Palmer may make things a bit easier for him, he is still a slow, plodding, contact-avoiding, wreck of a RB.

If the Bengals give him 200 carries:

200 carries, 750 yards, 5 TD's...

25 receptions, 200 yards

Benson had 3 decent games last season(2 of them came against teams that were horrific, and in all likelyhood trying to lose to improve draft position, and the Skins game wasn't that great-the team had lost 5 of 6 at that point anyway)...don't believe the hype, he is, and always will be a bust of epic proportions. Unless you know that he is taking special "vitamins" this year, stay far, far away from this turd.

Seriously, even if Benson is the starter, draft someone else, he is a poor excuse for a RB. No heart, no drive, nothing left in the tank, talent-wise, imo...he peaked at Texas.

"IF he can reach 200 carries? What exactly would you say prevents him from doing this? Last year he had 214 carries in only 12 games. Are you predicting injury or the rookie Scott to take his job? I don't think Watson is a threat since he lost his shot to Benson last year." - - - puckalicious

Once the Bengals realize they shouldn't waste their time giving carries to a turd, of course...

Just my opinion, but Benson is about as bad as RB's come, again, just my opinion. The Bengals front office seems to like him, more power to them.

This will probably make many Bengals/Benson fans angry, but I don't really have anything positive to say about the guy, so I will stop after this post. I've watched pretty much every carry of his career, read the stories about his off-field issues, and have a pretty good idea what CEDRIC BENSON is all about. He, quite simply, isn't a talented running-back at the NFL level, and I would pick 100 RB's before I'd even begin to sniff around Benson.

 

[puckalicious]

He averaged 3.5ypc last season, and while Palmer may make things a bit easier for him, he is still a slow, plodding, contact-avoiding, wreck of a RB.

If he can reach 200 carries:

200 carries, 750 yards, 5 TD's...

25 receptions, 200 yards

IF he can reach 200 carries? What exactly would you say prevents him from doing this? Last year he had 214 carries in only 12 games. Are you predicting injury or the rookie Scott to take his job? I don't think Watson is a threat since he lost his shot to Benson last year.

 

[BoulderBob]

Sorry, please delete...responded in an above post.

 

[rzrback77]

Cedric Benson had a very successful collegiate run and was drafted as the fourth overall selection in the 05 draft. He came out of the gate slowly and was outplayed in Chicago by Thomas Jones, who was very successful rushing for over 1300 yards and finishing as RB9. IN Benson's second year, he received about one third of the carriies and performed similar to Jones, averaging 4.1 ypc and scoring 6 rushing TDs in 157 carries.

In 07, he became the starter as Jones left Chicago and the entire bear rushing attack floundered. Benson averaged only 3.4 ypc while he had the majority of the carries prior to being injured in week 12 and missing the rest of the year. In 08, he hooked up with the Bengals and became their main back for the second half of the season. His numbers remained average at best with a 3.5 ypc, but had over twenty carries in 5 games. Carson Palmer was also out and the entire Bengal offense was atrocious.

Benson should continue to be the bell-cow back for the Bengals in 09 with very little threatening him on the depth chart. I expect that the QB play will improve significantly for the Bengals in 09 with Palmer's return. TJ Housh has departed for Seatlle, but Chad Ochocinco, Coles, Chris Henry and a couple of decent second year guys, their WR corp looks strong. The OL is not the best, but the improved QB play should open a little more room than Benson saw last year. I expect that you will get very nice production for the price spent on him as his current ADP is RB31 and 73 overall.

Cedric Benson 300 carries 1200 yards 4.0 ypc 40 targets 30 receptions 210 yards 7.0 ypc and 8 total TDs

 

[kremenull]

Some guys just aren't that good, even when they're given a golden opportunity like Benson has currently. Make no mistake about it, he will get opportunities. I just don't see him capitalizing on them to an impactful extent.

225 carries, 3.85 ypc

866 rush yds, 6 TDs

21 receptions, 136 yds

No burst + No agility + No speed = pedestrian RB....He is what he is...

 

[puckalicious]

Those projecting under 200 or barely over 200 carries, please project the rest of the backfield that makes up the other 200 carries or so. Because barring injury I don't see anyone on the team that will split 50/50 with Benson.

Everyone seems to point to his 3.5ypc last year as the reason he'll be replaced. He had the best ypc on the team with any significant amount of carries.... (Watson had 3.9 on 14 carries)

I'm not saying Benson is a stud or anything, but the entire offense last year was, well, offensive and had a lot to do with this ypc. Saying childish things like you'd take 100 RBs ahead of him, or he's a "turd" do not add anything to this spotlight.

280/1080/5 & 30/240/0

 

[BuckeyeArt]

will be the workhorse back on a team that loves to use one RB and one RB only, No threat of RBBC here,

That's the key thing many are missing. Cincinnati (under Lewis) does not use a committee. It sometimes looks like a RBBC when you look at the end of year stats but when you look at it on a per game basis, the majority of carries are given to one RB.Last year, the #1 RB each game received 86% of the carries. I don't think any other team was higher. In 2007, it was injuries that made the final stats look like RBBC. In reality, the #1 RB each game got 79% of the carries. In 2004-2006, that number ranged from 81%-91%. Cincy (or Lewis) clearly likes to use 1 RB.So unless someone is predicting injury or a complete meltdown by Benson, there isn't any reason to expect Benson to get less than 80% of the RB carries. Using the FBG staff's median RB projection of 391 carries, that gives Benson a likely minimum of 313 carries. Cincinnati's RBs averaged 3.94 yards per carry in 2006-2007. Since Benson has led his teams in ypc in every year but his rookie year, averaging 4.0 would not be unreasonable. In 2004-2007, their lead RB averaged 11+ TDs. Again, giving Benson 10 isn't unreasonable. He averaged a little less than 2 receptions per game last year and has a career average of about 8 ypr. That gives a projection of:313 carries - 1252 yards - 4.0 ypc - 10 TDs30 receptions - 240 yards - 8.0 ypr

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Like Jamal Lewis (another RB who has to crunch nuts against Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice each) I think it's a good idea to look at the first 10 weeks of Benson's/Cinci's schedule.

1 9.13 Sunday Denver Broncos 1:00 CBS

2 9.20 Sunday @ Green Bay Packers 1:00 Fox

3 9.27 Sunday Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

4 10.4 Sunday @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 CBS

5 10.11 Sunday @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

6 10.18 Sunday Houston Texans 1:00 CBS

7 10.25 Sunday Chicago Bears 1:00 CBS

8 Bye

9 11.8 Sunday Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

10 11.15 Sunday @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

So, which games does Benson look like an FF starter in? Denver, GB, @Cleveland (38 carries last year), maybe Houston (only 69 total yards last year)? To my eye that's four weeks out of ten that he's even a consideration for your lineup. From week 7 to 10 Benson looks unusuable. Even the later matchups for Cinci don't look favorable. I think it will be too difficult to predict the (few) weeks Benson puts up starter-worthy numbers even if his end-of-year statline is decent. Do Not Draft.

 

[wolfie]

Benson's not a stud, he is a quality #3 rb, with lower end #2 upside.

Last year with no qb, no practice or knoweledge of the system( came in cold week 5, off the street,, only had 14 carries for 36yds in wks 5&6).

he put up 214 carries 747 yds only 2tds 20 recpts for 185-0 Bengals only had 17 total offensive tds - 11pass and 6 rushing, fitzpatrick had 2 of them.

He avg. 60 yds/gm last year. He is almost a lock for 275 carries 1040 yds and 6tds 25 recpts 200 yds, with td updide if Palmer is healthy.

Not flashy, not the new young upside toy, that has to beat out the incumbent, he is the incumbent, with not much behind him.

Take a shot with the Donald Browns, Ray Rices, Beannie Wells, and so on. Give me Benson, barring injury, I have a good idea of his role, a safe play for a#3 with #2 upside.

 

[Ray_T]

Benson's not a stud, he is a quality #3 rb, with lower end #2 upside. Last year with no qb, no practice or knoweledge of the system( came in cold week 5, off the street,, only had 14 carries for 36yds in wks 5&6). he put up 214 carries 747 yds only 2tds 20 recpts for 185-0 Bengals only had 17 total offensive tds - 11pass and 6 rushing, fitzpatrick had 2 of them.He avg. 60 yds/gm last year. He is almost a lock for 275 carries 1040 yds and 6tds 25 recpts 200 yds, with td updide if Palmer is healthy. Not flashy, not the new young upside toy, that has to beat out the incumbent, he is the incumbent, with not much behind him.Take a shot with the Donald Browns, Ray Rices, Beannie Wells, and so on. Give me Benson, barring injury, I have a good idea of his role, a safe play for a#3 with #2 upside.

without question, you should always take your chances with someone listed as a starter ahead of someone listed as a backup.The only exception may be if the running game is strong and the RB2 gets more than 30% of the carries. (Carolina would be an example)even so, Stewart has similar value to Benson in a redraft league. (although I'd take stewart over Benson in a dynasty league every time)

 

[wolfie]

Benson's not a stud, he is a quality #3 rb, with lower end #2 upside. Last year with no qb, no practice or knoweledge of the system( came in cold week 5, off the street,, only had 14 carries for 36yds in wks 5&6). he put up 214 carries 747 yds only 2tds 20 recpts for 185-0 Bengals only had 17 total offensive tds - 11pass and 6 rushing, fitzpatrick had 2 of them.He avg. 60 yds/gm last year. He is almost a lock for 275 carries 1040 yds and 6tds 25 recpts 200 yds, with td updide if Palmer is healthy. Not flashy, not the new young upside toy, that has to beat out the incumbent, he is the incumbent, with not much behind him.Take a shot with the Donald Browns, Ray Rices, Beannie Wells, and so on. Give me Benson, barring injury, I have a good idea of his role, a safe play for a#3 with #2 upside.

without question, you should always take your chances with someone listed as a starter ahead of someone listed as a backup.The only exception may be if the running game is strong and the RB2 gets more than 30% of the carries. (Carolina would be an example)even so, Stewart has similar value to Benson in a redraft league. (although I'd take stewart over Benson in a dynasty league every time)

No problem agree. But in a redraft I like Benson a little more, he has a tough schedule, but Carolina had a tough rush schedule, especially at years end, when Cinn's get a lot easier.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Like Jamal Lewis (another RB who has to crunch nuts against Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice each) I think it's a good idea to look at the first 10 weeks of Benson's/Cinci's schedule.

1 9.13 Sunday Denver Broncos 1:00 CBS

2 9.20 Sunday @ Green Bay Packers 1:00 Fox

3 9.27 Sunday Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

4 10.4 Sunday @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 CBS

5 10.11 Sunday @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

6 10.18 Sunday Houston Texans 1:00 CBS

7 10.25 Sunday Chicago Bears 1:00 CBS

8 Bye

9 11.8 Sunday Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

10 11.15 Sunday @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

So, which games does Benson look like an FF starter in? Denver, GB, @Cleveland (38 carries last year), maybe Houston (only 69 total yards last year)? To my eye that's four weeks out of ten that he's even a consideration for your lineup. From week 7 to 10 Benson looks unusuable. Even the later matchups for Cinci don't look favorable. I think it will be too difficult to predict the (few) weeks Benson puts up starter-worthy numbers even if his end-of-year statline is decent. Do Not Draft.

Let me complete that for you:11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Oakland 4:15 PM

12 Sun, Nov 29 Cleveland 1:00 PM

13 Sun, Dec 6 Detroit 1:00 PM

14 Sun, Dec 13 @ Minnesota 1:00 PM

15 Sun, Dec 20 @ San Diego 4:05 PM

16 Sun, Dec 27 Kansas City 1:00 PM

17 Sun, Jan 3 @ NY Jets 1:00 PM

He's also usable in 6 of the last 7.

 

[kremenull]

will be the workhorse back on a team that loves to use one RB and one RB only, No threat of RBBC here,

That's the key thing many are missing. Cincinnati (under Lewis) does not use a committee. It sometimes looks like a RBBC when you look at the end of year stats but when you look at it on a per game basis, the majority of carries are given to one RB.Last year, the #1 RB each game received 86% of the carries. I don't think any other team was higher. In 2007, it was injuries that made the final stats look like RBBC. In reality, the #1 RB each game got 79% of the carries. In 2004-2006, that number ranged from 81%-91%. Cincy (or Lewis) clearly likes to use 1 RB.So unless someone is predicting injury or a complete meltdown by Benson, there isn't any reason to expect Benson to get less than 80% of the RB carries. Using the FBG staff's median RB projection of 391 carries, that gives Benson a likely minimum of 313 carries. Cincinnati's RBs averaged 3.94 yards per carry in 2006-2007. Since Benson has led his teams in ypc in every year but his rookie year, averaging 4.0 would not be unreasonable. In 2004-2007, their lead RB averaged 11+ TDs. Again, giving Benson 10 isn't unreasonable. He averaged a little less than 2 receptions per game last year and has a career average of about 8 ypr. That gives a projection of:313 carries - 1252 yards - 4.0 ypc - 10 TDs30 receptions - 240 yards - 8.0 ypr

Benson will start out the season as the feature, workhorse RB. And due to pedestrian numbers over the first 9-10 games, other guys will be given opportunities. And these other guys (see below), will play better than him in many aspects, like receiving, 3rd downs, big plays, etc. Thus, many people are projecting Benson to be the full-time RB for the FULL season. Sure, if you are getting the job done, then you keep your job.....well, I just don't see Benson getting the job done enough to keep others on the bench all year long.Benson - 225 carriesScott - 110 carriesWatson/Leonard/Others - 75 to 85 carries

 

[kremenull]

Like Jamal Lewis (another RB who has to crunch nuts against Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice each) I think it's a good idea to look at the first 10 weeks of Benson's/Cinci's schedule.

1 9.13 Sunday Denver Broncos 1:00 CBS

2 9.20 Sunday @ Green Bay Packers 1:00 Fox

3 9.27 Sunday Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

4 10.4 Sunday @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 CBS

5 10.11 Sunday @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

6 10.18 Sunday Houston Texans 1:00 CBS

7 10.25 Sunday Chicago Bears 1:00 CBS

8 Bye

9 11.8 Sunday Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

10 11.15 Sunday @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

So, which games does Benson look like an FF starter in? Denver, GB, @Cleveland (38 carries last year), maybe Houston (only 69 total yards last year)? To my eye that's four weeks out of ten that he's even a consideration for your lineup. From week 7 to 10 Benson looks unusuable. Even the later matchups for Cinci don't look favorable. I think it will be too difficult to predict the (few) weeks Benson puts up starter-worthy numbers even if his end-of-year statline is decent. Do Not Draft.

Let me complete that for you:11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Oakland 4:15 PM

12 Sun, Nov 29 Cleveland 1:00 PM

13 Sun, Dec 6 Detroit 1:00 PM

14 Sun, Dec 13 @ Minnesota 1:00 PM

15 Sun, Dec 20 @ San Diego 4:05 PM

16 Sun, Dec 27 Kansas City 1:00 PM

17 Sun, Jan 3 @ NY Jets 1:00 PM

He's also usable in 6 of the last 7.

I would hardly consider road games at Oakland, S.D., and the Jets favorable matchups for a guy like Benson

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

As difficult as it is to predict any matchups before the season, I think it's more difficult to predict those games at the end. That said, I think @SD and @NYJ will also be pretty strong defenses.

Benson plays 6 of the 7 worst run Ds of last year in seven games in 2009 (CLE 2x)

Benson plays 5 of the 7 best run Ds of last year in seven games (PIT 2x, BAL 2x)

That is kind of unusual.

 

[B Maverick]

Does anyone else find it ironic that the guy that beat cedric benson out in Chi is the same guy that most people were writing off in AZ after his first 3 years? I wonder if we can find any quotes after T Jones left AZ, showed promise in TB then went on to be a stud in Chi and NYJ?

It sounds awfully familiar.

I like Bensen for this year in Cinci. They have proven they can make a guy like this a stud for 3 or so years in Rudi Johnson. CB is still young and does have something to prove after being run out of Chi. I like him as a #3 with #2 potential. Even at his career ave of 3.7 and 250 carries thats 925 yards. With Palmer and the passing game loosening the defense, he can get that up to 4 ypc thats a 1000 yards.

I can see 250/1000/8, 20/160/2

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Like Jamal Lewis (another RB who has to crunch nuts against Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice each) I think it's a good idea to look at the first 10 weeks of Benson's/Cinci's schedule.

1 9.13 Sunday Denver Broncos 1:00 CBS

2 9.20 Sunday @ Green Bay Packers 1:00 Fox

3 9.27 Sunday Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

4 10.4 Sunday @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 CBS

5 10.11 Sunday @ Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

6 10.18 Sunday Houston Texans 1:00 CBS

7 10.25 Sunday Chicago Bears 1:00 CBS

8 Bye

9 11.8 Sunday Baltimore Ravens 1:00 CBS

10 11.15 Sunday @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 CBS

So, which games does Benson look like an FF starter in? Denver, GB, @Cleveland (38 carries last year), maybe Houston (only 69 total yards last year)? To my eye that's four weeks out of ten that he's even a consideration for your lineup. From week 7 to 10 Benson looks unusuable. Even the later matchups for Cinci don't look favorable. I think it will be too difficult to predict the (few) weeks Benson puts up starter-worthy numbers even if his end-of-year statline is decent. Do Not Draft.

Let me complete that for you:11 Sun, Nov 22 @ Oakland 4:15 PM

12 Sun, Nov 29 Cleveland 1:00 PM

13 Sun, Dec 6 Detroit 1:00 PM

14 Sun, Dec 13 @ Minnesota 1:00 PM

15 Sun, Dec 20 @ San Diego 4:05 PM

16 Sun, Dec 27 Kansas City 1:00 PM

17 Sun, Jan 3 @ NY Jets 1:00 PM

He's also usable in 6 of the last 7.

I would hardly consider road games at Oakland, S.D., and the Jets favorable matchups for a guy like Benson

The Jets are the toughest of the three but San Diego was nothing special last year and Oakland was downright horrible against the run. Since the Jets come in week 17, they don't even matter in most fantasy leagues.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

will be the workhorse back on a team that loves to use one RB and one RB only, No threat of RBBC here,

That's the key thing many are missing. Cincinnati (under Lewis) does not use a committee. It sometimes looks like a RBBC when you look at the end of year stats but when you look at it on a per game basis, the majority of carries are given to one RB.Last year, the #1 RB each game received 86% of the carries. I don't think any other team was higher. In 2007, it was injuries that made the final stats look like RBBC. In reality, the #1 RB each game got 79% of the carries. In 2004-2006, that number ranged from 81%-91%. Cincy (or Lewis) clearly likes to use 1 RB.So unless someone is predicting injury or a complete meltdown by Benson, there isn't any reason to expect Benson to get less than 80% of the RB carries. Using the FBG staff's median RB projection of 391 carries, that gives Benson a likely minimum of 313 carries. Cincinnati's RBs averaged 3.94 yards per carry in 2006-2007. Since Benson has led his teams in ypc in every year but his rookie year, averaging 4.0 would not be unreasonable. In 2004-2007, their lead RB averaged 11+ TDs. Again, giving Benson 10 isn't unreasonable. He averaged a little less than 2 receptions per game last year and has a career average of about 8 ypr. That gives a projection of:313 carries - 1252 yards - 4.0 ypc - 10 TDs30 receptions - 240 yards - 8.0 ypr

Benson will start out the season as the feature, workhorse RB. And due to pedestrian numbers over the first 9-10 games, other guys will be given opportunities. And these other guys (see below), will play better than him in many aspects, like receiving, 3rd downs, big plays, etc. Thus, many people are projecting Benson to be the full-time RB for the FULL season. Sure, if you are getting the job done, then you keep your job.....well, I just don't see Benson getting the job done enough to keep others on the bench all year long.Benson - 225 carriesScott - 110 carriesWatson/Leonard/Others - 75 to 85 carries

The projections make more sense if you think he will lose his job. But, look at the people you are predicting to take over.Watson - He couldn't beat out Benson last year.Leonard - What has he ever done in his career to make you think he'll beat out Benson?Scott - A Division II player who put up huge numbers in a conference and division that didn't play much defense. To illustrate that, do you know what the score of Abilene's 1st round playoff game was last year? It was 98-68. No, that's not a basketball score. That's a score between the 2nd ranked and 9th ranked teams in Division II football. I'd bet there are a bunch of Division I and I-AA RBs who could put up some gaudy numbers in that conference. Scott is just a 5'10" 200 lb 25 1/2 year old rookie with more baggage than Benson.

 

[brutha]

Watson - He couldn't beat out Benson last year.

he hardly had a chance. I'm still not getting why Watson isn't getting a fair shot. maybe Lewis didn't like him and the new guy will. but Benson is still worth a late flyer.

 

[-jb-]

For the price, I'd rather roll the dice on Ray Rice. That'd be nice.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Watson - He couldn't beat out Benson last year.

he hardly had a chance. I'm still not getting why Watson isn't getting a fair shot. maybe Lewis didn't like him and the new guy will. but Benson is still worth a late flyer.

Who's 'the new guy'? Lewis is still the coach.While Watson didn't get many opportunities in games, it's likely because Benson was better in practice. In addition, Watson is now 31.

 

[Unlucky]

I agree with BoulderBob: Benson sucks. He's not good. Let me repeat that for you: Cedric Benson isn't a good RB.

Watson's 2007 is FAR better than Benson's 2008. 178/736/7 for 4.3 ypc.

But I know that Watson isn't really good enough to be a feature RB, either.

I guess it's Benson's job by default, but I won't be touching him in any fantasy leagues this year.

120/420/1 with 15/120/0 receiving

I currently have Watson at 130/559/3 and 30/225/0 but that's really only because someone has to carry the ball.

 

[sinatravolta]

Watson - He couldn't beat out Benson last year.

he hardly had a chance. I'm still not getting why Watson isn't getting a fair shot. maybe Lewis didn't like him and the new guy will. but Benson is still worth a late flyer.

fyi - Lewis was DC for the Redskins when Watson was there. So Lewis has had plenty of time with Kenny Watson. Watson is not bad as a fill-in, but I don't think it's a question of him not getting a fair shot or Lewis not liking him. He brought him in because he liked him in Washington!

 

[joffer]

Watson's a much more versatile back, and probably an equivalent runner.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Watson's 2007 is FAR better than Benson's 2008. 178/736/7 for 4.3 ypc.

Why would you compare the Bengals from 2007 to the Bengals from 2008? They are two completely different animals. Clearly, any player in the 2007 offense is going to have performed better than anyone in the 2008 offense.

 

[mdog1967]

Does anyone else find it ironic that the guy that beat cedric benson out in Chi is the same guy that most people were writing off in AZ after his first 3 years? I wonder if we can find any quotes after T Jones left AZ, showed promise in TB then went on to be a stud in Chi and NYJ?It sounds awfully familiar. I like Bensen for this year in Cinci. They have proven they can make a guy like this a stud for 3 or so years in Rudi Johnson. CB is still young and does have something to prove after being run out of Chi. I like him as a #3 with #2 potential. Even at his career ave of 3.7 and 250 carries thats 925 yards. With Palmer and the passing game loosening the defense, he can get that up to 4 ypc thats a 1000 yards.I can see 250/1000/8, 20/160/2

Tomas Jones talent was always evident, so was Michael Pittman's. Before either one of them Garrison Hearst spent two years playing there, he started in 1995 carrying for 284 times, 1070 yards and finishing with a 3.8 rushing average. Not exactly stud numbers. However anyone watching could see that Arizona was a difficult place for RB's. Tomas Jones and Michael Pittman proved more than serviceable after leaving AZ. Watching Cedric Benson run up the backsides of the Chicago Lineman on a regular basis and go down quicker than Curtis Enis( Hmm also a Bears Running Back). Should give everyone doubt that Cedric Benson will not disappoint this year. Watching him last year was different, Benson had something to prove and looked almost mediocre. I'll take him as a Number three back with upside, but no way am I going to count on super turd to give me anything more than heartburn. I think it more likely that Finger tip tackle Brandon Jackson scores ten TD's than Benson providing quality #2 RB numbers this year.

 

[Mene]

I didn't get to see him last year, but I watched him a bunch in 07, and he had the worst vision of any RB I've watched in years. Someone mentioned it already, he has a knack for running right up the backside of his OL, and rarely seems to see holes. Add that to the ease in which he seems to go down, I just don't see how he puts up RB2 numbers this year. I can't imagine Cincy keeping him as the bell cow all season. I bet someone emerges to make this a rbbc, or outright push benson to second fiddle, right around the time it appears the schedule lightens up.

229/816/6 rush

22/165/0 rec

 

[paydrt]

I'm not ready to write off Benson just yet and if you find yourself looking for your third RB you might just have to swallow your pride and select him. Hey its easy to pick on Benson, thats been documented ad nauseum. That means your going to have to find some postive's.

I dunno..um...As a collegiate is was a prolific runner, enough to be chosen 4th overall. The guy is 26, right in the middle of his prime, he is in a situation where he is an undisputed No.1. Anything else...gulp?? Heck, Larry Johnson didnt anything till he was 25 yrs old. Hmm... with that extensive body of work I've chosen to look at the Bengal Off.coord. Bob Bratkowski- in 12 seasons as a coord. Bratkowski has only once...ONCE, not had a RB finish in the top 24. That was last season. An offence with a bang-up Chad and top QB that got knocked out early and a RB that came along halfway through the season.

Benson 290- 1100-7

25- 200- 2

That'll slot him just inside the top 20.

 

[Bayhawks]

Tomas Jones talent was always evident,

No, it wasn't. As a result of his first 3 years in Arizona, (where he couldn't gain better than 3.7 YPC!) he was looked at as a bust. He was outperformed by Pittman for his first two years, and by MARCEL SHIPP in his last year there. He was signed by Tampa Bay AS A BACKUP in 2003, where he had a couple of good games towards the end of the year. Despite his "evident talent," TB decided to let Jones walk, in favor of keeping Pittman as their starting RB. When he signed with Chicago, his "evident talent" prompted the Bears to use the 4th pick of the draft on Cedric Benson. The fact is that Jones didn't have success in the NFL right away, and his talent wasn't evident (at least at the NFL level) for several years. Maybe he matured, maybe he found a team that fit his style, maybe he improved. I don't know, but the fact is that something similar could be happening with Benson. He is on a different team, he is in a different city, maybe he is in a different place in his life, maybe he realizes that he is running out of NFL chances.

The bottom line is that Benson appears to be the only RB in Cincy, and the offensive situation in Cincy can't be worse than last year. Last year, Benson averaged 17.8 carries/game. This is with a HORRIBLE offense that rarely sustained long drives. So, I wouldn't expect him to get less than that. Let's round down to 17 carries/game. That's 272 carries. His YPC last year was 3.5. However, that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. He averaged 5.1 YPA last year. This allowed opposing defenses to crowd the line of scrimmage regularly with 8 (or more) defenders. This year, by all accounts, Palmer is healthy, Ochocinco is healthy, and that will force defenses to defend the pass more, giving the Cincy RBs more room. So let's take his 3.5 YPC from last year, and bump it to 3.8

272 carries @3.8 YPC= 1034 rushing yards. His receiving stats probably won't be much, but I'd bet that he catches for at least 66 yards. Before last year's TD output (again, probably due largely to the ineffectiveness of the Cincy offense), Benson averaged 1 TD for every 35 rushes. That would equal 7.8 TDs with 272 rushes. Let's round up to 8.

So you're looking at 1100 total yards and 8 TDs. I wouldn't call that Benson's floor (he could do worse), but it isn't his ceiling either. If you get a solid RB1, and two good WRs, Benson wouldn't make a bad RB2, and he would be a really solid RB3.

 

[tdmills]

Any news on Bernard Scott?

I looked at a couple of the training camp videos....he looks lightening quick.

 

[Kirby]

Watson was cut. Looks like it'll be Leonard and Scott.

 

[Bojang0301]

Can't believe anyone was still sniffing Watson's jock at this point. Scott is a legit talent. I don't know what to make of Benson but if he is not effective I truely believe Scott will be.