Player Spotlight: Chris Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Chris Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[mikel0254]

Everything I've read in the offseason tells me CJ will have a larger role this year. While I believe his rushing attempts will only increase slightly, I believe he will be much more involved in the passing game and more at the goal line. If you look back at last year, he had pretty good success in the limited opportunities he got. Having CJ on the field around the goal line gives the Titans a much more dynamic player than White, and gives them many more options outside of running it up the middle three times (the LenDale special). Also, with Haynesworth gone the Titans D takes a hit and which means they will most likely be "in" most games well into the 4th - for this reason, CJ will be on the field more and his opportunities across the board will increase over last year

My Prediction:

270 carries @ 4.7 yards/carry = 1,269 yards rushing

10 Rushing TD's

60 receptions @ 7.0 yards/reception = 420 yards

4 Receiving TD's

 

[Banger]

IMO one of the most exciting RB's in the game who has the ability to score every time he touches the ball. Lightning fast, great hands and a surprisingly strong runner. This year the coaching staff is looking to get the ball into his hands more often, in numerous ways (i.e. line him up as a WR) and why not, he's probably their best player with Haynesworth gone.

As a rookie facing 8-9 guys in the box every week and L. White vulturing a dozen or so TD's he was able to put up a solid year (finished 11th). Last year basically everything broke right for the Titans and they were able rotate White in in the 2nd half of most games due to the fact that they were leading. With the loss of Haynesworth I don't see their defense being as stout as last year which IMO bodes well for Johnson since they will need to lean on him more than they did last year. In close games or games where the Titans were trailing Johnson got the lionshare of the touches which makes sense since he's the guy who has the ability to get the Titans back into the game.

I think this guy just scratched the surface last year and he has the ability to be one of the best backs in the game. If some of the talent they drafted in the offseason helps take some of the pressure off and they can move the chains I think Johnson will have a very good year.

265 carries 1325 yards - 10 tds and 55 receptions 440 yards - 3 tds

 

[Blackjacks]

Good oline

Good offense

Good coach

I like him as long as he stays healthy (you can say that about anyone)

rushes 246

rushing yards 1105

rushing avg. 4.5

rushing td's 9

catches 49

recieving yards 345

recieving avg. 7.0

recieving td's 2

 

[Gopher State]

With reports out of Tenn that White is in the best shape of his career, and add to the fact that ever team has film on CJ, I think you have to temper your projections on him. I see it being a strong 50/50 split between CJ and White, why change what worked last year, I see White adding to his TD total from a year ago, if he is in excellent condition as stated

I see

260 rushes/1100 yards 7 TD's, 40 rec's 300 yards one TD

still a strong #2 RB for FF

 

[Jason Wood]

I've heard several people make the case that Johnson is in line for a heavier workload this year. On the surface, that seems quite logical to me. On the other hand, there are two issues to consider that may contradict that logic.

1) The Titans ran the ball 508 times last year, and this year are almost assuredly going to have a weaker defense...which to me argues that they'll have to throw more. And with Kerry Collins at the helm, I fear that's going to mean fewer sustained drives and fewer red zone opportunities

2) People seem awfully quick to dismiss LenDale White and yet he didn't 'vulture' goal-line carries last year. He WAS the goal-line back. It would be one thing if White struggled in that role, but he hasn't. In fact, White has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs in the league. Why would the Titans screw up a great system?

Chris Johnson had 4 goal line carries last year, and to his credit converted two of them. But again, White's one great strength is his goal-line prowess.

In the last two seasons, White leads the league in goal-line carries and has converted 53% of them for scores.

I'm optimistic about Johnson's chances, but I'm unclear as to why he's going to score more touchdowns.

 

[mikel0254]

With reports out of Tenn that White is in the best shape of his career, and add to the fact that ever team has film on CJ, I think you have to temper your projections on him. I see it being a strong 50/50 split between CJ and White, why change what worked last year, I see White adding to his TD total from a year ago, if he is in excellent condition as stated

I see

260 rushes/1100 yards 7 TD's, 40 rec's 300 yards one TD

still a strong #2 RB for FF

What worked last year was when they leaned on CJ to be a "do everything" back such as in the playoff game against Baltimore. What didn't work was when they leaned on White to be a "do everything" back such as in the playoff game against Baltimore. Small sample size I know, but I think that game really opened the eyes of the coaching staff in TEN and they now realize how much better they are when CJ is in the game compared to White.

 

[DoctorFantasy]

I am pretty high on him this year. Should be a late first round steal for those picking in that area. He could be a mid-first round option for leagues awarding bonus points for long distance TDs.

265 carries: 1350 rushing yards; 9 rushing scores

52 catches: 475 receiving yards; 2 receiving scores

 

[mikel0254]

I've heard several people make the case that Johnson is in line for a heavier workload this year. On the surface, that seems quite logical to me. On the other hand, there are two issues to consider that may contradict that logic.1) The Titans ran the ball 508 times last year, and this year are almost assuredly going to have a weaker defense...which to me argues that they'll have to throw more. And with Kerry Collins at the helm, I fear that's going to mean fewer sustained drives and fewer red zone opportunities2) People seem awfully quick to dismiss LenDale White and yet he didn't 'vulture' goal-line carries last year. He WAS the goal-line back. It would be one thing if White struggled in that role, but he hasn't. In fact, White has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs in the league. Why would the Titans screw up a great system? Chris Johnson had 4 goal line carries last year, and to his credit converted two of them. But again, White's one great strength is his goal-line prowess.In the last two seasons, White leads the league in goal-line carries and has converted 53% of them for scores. I'm optimistic about Johnson's chances, but I'm unclear as to why he's going to score more touchdowns.

You make great points and I agree with you when his rushing TD's probably won't increase too much (I predict 10 compared to 9 last year and his rushing attempts to increase 19 or just over 1 attempt/game). I do think his TD's will increase is in the passing game. You put the ball in CJ's hands out in space, and he doesn't need to be around the goal line in order to score. From all I’ve heard, this is where they plan to utilize him more

 

[Banger]

With reports out of Tenn that White is in the best shape of his career, and add to the fact that ever team has film on CJ, I think you have to temper your projections on him. I see it being a strong 50/50 split between CJ and White, why change what worked last year, I see White adding to his TD total from a year ago, if he is in excellent condition as statedI see260 rushes/1100 yards 7 TD's, 40 rec's 300 yards one TDstill a strong #2 RB for FF

White being in the best shape of his career is not saying a lot and even if he came into camp a chiselled rock, so what? What can he do better than Johnson? Possibly he's a better goal line hammer but that's about it and someone has to get them to the goal line. I posted this a few days ago in another thread...With respect to CJ3 and White...White got the vast majority of his carries when the team was leading or in garbage time...when the Titans were up by 8+ pts White got 55% of the carries (83 of his 200 carries - 42% of his '08 total), when the Titans were up 4-7 pts CJ got 53% of the carries (16/14), when the Titans were trailing to up by 3 CJ got 62% of the carries (168/103), when the Titans were trailing to up by 2 CJ got 66% of the carries (125/63), when the Titans were trailing to up by 1 CJ got 68% of the carries (125/58) and when the Titans were trailing to tied CJ got 70% of the carries (117/51). White was a mop up back last year, it just happened there was a good bit of mopping to do due to their great season. You won't see that scenario again this year.As far as your theory about having film on him, I'd imagine the Ravens had a good bit of film on him for their playoff game and they had no answer for him. He went for 100 yards and a 1 td on 12 touches (6.5 ypc) in 1 1/2 qtrs, unfortunately he got hurt and couldn't play in the 2nd half. The Titans were forced to rely on White for the rest of the game who had a disasterous fumble that essentially cost them the game and he ran for 15-45 (3 ypc). White needs Johnson, Johnson doesn't need White.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I wasn't a believer heading into last season and saw the Titan's drafting of him as more an indication that they wanted another weapon in the passing game than the fact that he would be the primary ball carrier. After watching him though I now see him as the "real deal". A dynamic runner that has surprising power in that small package who's unparalleled speed makes him one of the most dangerous players on the field at all times.

260 carries, 1,235 yards, 8 TDs

55 recs, 420, 3 TDs

 

[switz]

Chris Johnson proved to be a dynamic player last season. He was involved in both the running and passing game, and had success even against the toughest defenses. However, while I expect to see him have an increased "role", I don't think that will necessarily translate into more touches. Last season CJ/White split the rushing load almost a perfect 60/40 split. While White frequently saw his touches after the game were well in hand, the fact the Titans used him as much as they did shows they don't want to wear CJ out. They won't overwork him.

The only reason I expect CJs touches to go up at all, is because he didn't play at all week 17.

So I predict,

260 carries

4.8 YPC (no BAL, CHI, MIN. GB this year, but also no DET, CLE, KC)

1,248 rushing yards

48 receptions

6.3 YPR

302 receiving yards

10 TOTAL TDs

 

[switz]

260 carries, 1,235 yards, 8 TDs55 recs, 420, 3 TDs

Wow... we are very close in our projections

 

[Jason Wood]

I've heard several people make the case that Johnson is in line for a heavier workload this year. On the surface, that seems quite logical to me. On the other hand, there are two issues to consider that may contradict that logic.

1) The Titans ran the ball 508 times last year, and this year are almost assuredly going to have a weaker defense...which to me argues that they'll have to throw more. And with Kerry Collins at the helm, I fear that's going to mean fewer sustained drives and fewer red zone opportunities

2) People seem awfully quick to dismiss LenDale White and yet he didn't 'vulture' goal-line carries last year. He WAS the goal-line back. It would be one thing if White struggled in that role, but he hasn't. In fact, White has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs in the league. Why would the Titans screw up a great system?

Chris Johnson had 4 goal line carries last year, and to his credit converted two of them. But again, White's one great strength is his goal-line prowess.

In the last two seasons, White leads the league in goal-line carries and has converted 53% of them for scores.

I'm optimistic about Johnson's chances, but I'm unclear as to why he's going to score more touchdowns.

You make great points and I agree with you when his rushing TD's probably won't increase too much (I predict 10 compared to 9 last year and his rushing attempts to increase 19 or just over 1 attempt/game). I do think his TD's will increase is in the passing game. You put the ball in CJ's hands out in space, and he doesn't need to be around the goal line in order to score. From all I’ve heard, this is where they plan to utilize him more

I keep hearing this, and I'm not saying you're wrong.BUT...Johnson only averaged 6.0 yards per reception last year.

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

 

[Banger]

I've heard several people make the case that Johnson is in line for a heavier workload this year. On the surface, that seems quite logical to me. On the other hand, there are two issues to consider that may contradict that logic.

1) The Titans ran the ball 508 times last year, and this year are almost assuredly going to have a weaker defense...which to me argues that they'll have to throw more. And with Kerry Collins at the helm, I fear that's going to mean fewer sustained drives and fewer red zone opportunities

2) People seem awfully quick to dismiss LenDale White and yet he didn't 'vulture' goal-line carries last year. He WAS the goal-line back. It would be one thing if White struggled in that role, but he hasn't. In fact, White has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs in the league. Why would the Titans screw up a great system?

Chris Johnson had 4 goal line carries last year, and to his credit converted two of them. But again, White's one great strength is his goal-line prowess.

In the last two seasons, White leads the league in goal-line carries and has converted 53% of them for scores.

I'm optimistic about Johnson's chances, but I'm unclear as to why he's going to score more touchdowns.

You make great points and I agree with you when his rushing TD's probably won't increase too much (I predict 10 compared to 9 last year and his rushing attempts to increase 19 or just over 1 attempt/game). I do think his TD's will increase is in the passing game. You put the ball in CJ's hands out in space, and he doesn't need to be around the goal line in order to score. From all I’ve heard, this is where they plan to utilize him more

I keep hearing this, and I'm not saying you're wrong.BUT...Johnson only averaged 6.0 yards per reception last year.

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

The problem was that they didn't move him around at all, didn't line him up wide, and nearly all from my recollection were simple screens that for the most part were pretty predictable (WR/TE covered and Collins would dump it off and hope CJ would make a few guys miss). I don't remember any that they sent him downfield (beyond the line of scrimmage) which is what they've alluded that they plan on doing this year. They just need to get him beyond the line of scrimmage because once he gets to that next level and gets his speed up he makes guys look silly out there with their bad angles.For him to truly hit the next level they really need some other threat on the offense to give him some space. I watched all the Titans games last year and you didn't have to be a genius to see what was coming. He constantly faced 8-9 in the box and still performed remarkably well. If they could get a decent threat at the TE or WR position it will do wonders for his ypc/ypr. I don't know that their draftees will have much of an impact but I certainly don't think they will hurt.

 

[FUBAR]

With reports out of Tenn that White is in the best shape of his career, and add to the fact that ever team has film on CJ, I think you have to temper your projections on him. I see it being a strong 50/50 split between CJ and White, why change what worked last year, I see White adding to his TD total from a year ago, if he is in excellent condition as statedI see260 rushes/1100 yards 7 TD's, 40 rec's 300 yards one TDstill a strong #2 RB for FF

White being in the best shape of his career is not saying a lot and even if he came into camp a chiselled rock, so what? What can he do better than Johnson? Possibly he's a better goal line hammer but that's about it and someone has to get them to the goal line. I posted this a few days ago in another thread...With respect to CJ3 and White...White got the vast majority of his carries when the team was leading or in garbage time...when the Titans were up by 8+ pts White got 55% of the carries (83 of his 200 carries - 42% of his '08 total), when the Titans were up 4-7 pts CJ got 53% of the carries (16/14), when the Titans were trailing to up by 3 CJ got 62% of the carries (168/103), when the Titans were trailing to up by 2 CJ got 66% of the carries (125/63), when the Titans were trailing to up by 1 CJ got 68% of the carries (125/58) and when the Titans were trailing to tied CJ got 70% of the carries (117/51). White was a mop up back last year, it just happened there was a good bit of mopping to do due to their great season. You won't see that scenario again this year.As far as your theory about having film on him, I'd imagine the Ravens had a good bit of film on him for their playoff game and they had no answer for him. He went for 100 yards and a 1 td on 12 touches (6.5 ypc) in 1 1/2 qtrs, unfortunately he got hurt and couldn't play in the 2nd half. The Titans were forced to rely on White for the rest of the game who had a disasterous fumble that essentially cost them the game and he ran for 15-45 (3 ypc). White needs Johnson, Johnson doesn't need White.

I don't have the stats, I just watched the games so maybe my memory is faulty, but it seemed both CJ and White got a lot of mop up duty, while the 3rd string didn't get much. As such, I don't see CJ or White's carries increasing much, if at all.

 

[FUBAR]

I've heard several people make the case that Johnson is in line for a heavier workload this year. On the surface, that seems quite logical to me. On the other hand, there are two issues to consider that may contradict that logic.

1) The Titans ran the ball 508 times last year, and this year are almost assuredly going to have a weaker defense...which to me argues that they'll have to throw more. And with Kerry Collins at the helm, I fear that's going to mean fewer sustained drives and fewer red zone opportunities

2) People seem awfully quick to dismiss LenDale White and yet he didn't 'vulture' goal-line carries last year. He WAS the goal-line back. It would be one thing if White struggled in that role, but he hasn't. In fact, White has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs in the league. Why would the Titans screw up a great system?

Chris Johnson had 4 goal line carries last year, and to his credit converted two of them. But again, White's one great strength is his goal-line prowess.

In the last two seasons, White leads the league in goal-line carries and has converted 53% of them for scores.

I'm optimistic about Johnson's chances, but I'm unclear as to why he's going to score more touchdowns.

You make great points and I agree with you when his rushing TD's probably won't increase too much (I predict 10 compared to 9 last year and his rushing attempts to increase 19 or just over 1 attempt/game). I do think his TD's will increase is in the passing game. You put the ball in CJ's hands out in space, and he doesn't need to be around the goal line in order to score. From all I’ve heard, this is where they plan to utilize him more

I keep hearing this, and I'm not saying you're wrong.BUT...Johnson only averaged 6.0 yards per reception last year.

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

The problem was that they didn't move him around at all, didn't line him up wide, and nearly all from my recollection were simple screens that for the most part were pretty predictable (WR/TE covered and Collins would dump it off and hope CJ would make a few guys miss). I don't remember any that they sent him downfield (beyond the line of scrimmage) which is what they've alluded that they plan on doing this year. They just need to get him beyond the line of scrimmage because once he gets to that next level and gets his speed up he makes guys look silly out there with their bad angles.For him to truly hit the next level they really need some other threat on the offense to give him some space. I watched all the Titans games last year and you didn't have to be a genius to see what was coming. He constantly faced 8-9 in the box and still performed remarkably well. If they could get a decent threat at the TE or WR position it will do wonders for his ypc/ypr. I don't know that their draftees will have much of an impact but I certainly don't think they will hurt.

:yes : I'd love to see CJ line up in the slot, or other WR positions. IMO, he has the unique ability to be a top notch RB and a Welker clone (maybe not as good, but he could be used that way). The Titans offense just isn't creative.

 

[mikel0254]

I've heard several people make the case that Johnson is in line for a heavier workload this year. On the surface, that seems quite logical to me. On the other hand, there are two issues to consider that may contradict that logic.

1) The Titans ran the ball 508 times last year, and this year are almost assuredly going to have a weaker defense...which to me argues that they'll have to throw more. And with Kerry Collins at the helm, I fear that's going to mean fewer sustained drives and fewer red zone opportunities

2) People seem awfully quick to dismiss LenDale White and yet he didn't 'vulture' goal-line carries last year. He WAS the goal-line back. It would be one thing if White struggled in that role, but he hasn't. In fact, White has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs in the league. Why would the Titans screw up a great system?

Chris Johnson had 4 goal line carries last year, and to his credit converted two of them. But again, White's one great strength is his goal-line prowess.

In the last two seasons, White leads the league in goal-line carries and has converted 53% of them for scores.

I'm optimistic about Johnson's chances, but I'm unclear as to why he's going to score more touchdowns.

You make great points and I agree with you when his rushing TD's probably won't increase too much (I predict 10 compared to 9 last year and his rushing attempts to increase 19 or just over 1 attempt/game). I do think his TD's will increase is in the passing game. You put the ball in CJ's hands out in space, and he doesn't need to be around the goal line in order to score. From all I’ve heard, this is where they plan to utilize him more

I keep hearing this, and I'm not saying you're wrong.BUT...Johnson only averaged 6.0 yards per reception last year.

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

I never played football myself and have a tough time reading a play to see if it was designed for a certain player, or if they were the second/third option. So my question back at you is how many of his receptions were designed for him? How many were a dump off with a defender right on him? I'm not saying you're wrong and I'm right either, I'm just oblivious when it comes to reading plays. I can all but guarantee you that the coaching staff is designing plays specifically for CJ in the passing game knowing if what he can do if he gets a step or two on a defender. If they utilize designed plays for him more and dump offs less, I can easily see his yards per reception increasing to 7.0

 

[travdogg]

I'm thinking either CJ3 is underrated or LenDale is overrated, or both. I agree with the people who say the Titans won't run as much this season, however, I disagree that it hurts Johnson's numbers. I'd say 80-90% of the lost caries come from the LenDale count. I feel White will still get goal line work, but 200 carries won't happen again. 125 is about what I'm expecting and if the Titans are worse than I think they are I could see fewer than 100 for White.

Which brings me to Johnson, who is BY FAR the biggest play maker this team has as well as its most valuable offensive player, which is rare for a RB. I think his touches will go up this year(carries included) and I don't think having film on him will make it much easier to stop him.

Also, keep in mind the Titans play in a pretty awful run stuffing division and they play the even worse NFC West. I think Johnson is in for a monster year and when you add in the increase in receiving usage, which may not be as big as some indicate, but on the flip side he's far too talented to have such a small YPC.

My Predictions: 270 carries, 1,250 yards and 11TD's

50 catches, 410 yards and 2 TD's

1,660 total yards and 13 total TD's

Really, I think I'm more likely to have him too low than too high. His yards-per could be higher than I'm projecting. He should be a 1st rounder in any league.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

270 carries

4.55 YPC

1228 yds

11 TD

55 recept

429 yds

2 TDs

As previously discussed in other Johsnon-related threads, the Titans defensive regression is a benefit to Johnson as it will keep him on the field providing him more opportunities. It reduces White to a smaller production window (goal line only) and giving Johnson a break every so often. It's really not a matter of weight that White tips the scales at, he is a far cry from Johnson's skill set, plain and simple.

After last season's introduction, why would the Titans best playmaker would be featured one ounce less? It's a easy connection that the Titans are working on multiple options to get Johnson the ball in space and the upside is Johnson ending up at RB3.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

260 carries, 1,235 yards, 8 TDs55 recs, 420, 3 TDs

Wow... we are very close in our projections

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Tennessee's defense will not likely be as dominant this year as it was last year. This may well translate into fewer short fields, and thus fewer red zone opportunities. It has been mentioned numerous times that Lendale White took most of the goal line carries, and this is true... and some may say that fewer short fields will impact White more than Johnson. HOWEVER.... Chris Johnson scored 10 TDs last year; of those, EIGHT were from 21 yards in.

Fewer red zone opportunities most certainly affects everybody on the offense, including really fast RBs.

It's just not easy to score long TDs from the RB spot, no matter how fast you are. Chris Johnson's speed makes him more likely to break the long ones than slower RBs, but it is still going to be a rarity. In 294 touches he had TWO long TDs. Maybe that goes up, maybe not... but long TDs are not a stat that you can accurately project.

Some are predicting an amazing season from Johnson. What goes into these amazing seasons, though? First you have to have natural talent, which Johnson has. Then you have to have a confluence of circumstances to allow that success; good O-line, good surrounding talent, a well-conceived offense, strong defense, numerous TD opportunities, and one final thing that is unpredictable but very important: health. Not just the health of the RB, but of the team.

Basically, everything went right for Tennessee last year:

~~ Their defense was very good - they lose Haynesworth this year. You gotta think they won't be AS good. A less effective defense is a negative for the offense as a whole. That affects EVERYBODY. Some players more than others, but everybody.

~~ They had few injuries - Tenn had 21 starter games missed. The league average was just over 44 games missed. Is it more likely that Tennessee starters miss more games or fewer games? If they miss more games, is that good or bad for the overall effectiveness of the team?

~~ Their starting offensive linemen missed a total of... ONE game. - is this likely to stay the same? I don't have access to starter games missed by position, but offensive linemen miss plenty of games as a group. If NFL teams averaged 44 starter games misses, and OL represent 5/22 of that, then the league average would be 10 OL starter games missed. If Tennessee regresses to the mean, does this help or hurt the offense?

~~ Kerry Collins stayed healthy - Collins is 36 years old. GENERALLY, older players get injured more than younger players. I won't go as far as to say it is LIKELY Collins misses time, but it has to be a consideration.

Collins is merely a game manager without weapons in the passing game.

~~ They won 13 games - generally, the offense is more productive and scores more when in their wins than in their losses. If Tennessee loses more than 3 games, is this good or bad for their overall offensive production?

MANY things need to go exactly right for CJ to have the opportunity to produce elite numbers. Most of those things went exactly right in 2008, and he finished RB11 in a down year for fantasy RBs.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Everything is not likely to go right for Tennessee this year as it did last year, and they haven't added anything significant to the offense to make it more dynamic.

Projections:

265 rushes, 4.65 ypc, 1232 yards

60 receptions, 7.2 ypr, 432 yards

7 total TDs

Good for right around a RB10 finish, with some upside if those TDs go up.

 

[Jason Wood]

Great discussion in here so far everyone

Please remember to share your projections on CJ [if you've got them]

 

[mikel0254]

Tennessee's defense will not likely be as dominant this year as it was last year. This may well translate into fewer short fields, and thus fewer red zone opportunities. It has been mentioned numerous times that Lendale White took most of the goal line carries, and this is true... and some may say that fewer short fields will impact White more than Johnson. HOWEVER.... Chris Johnson scored 10 TDs last year; of those, EIGHT were from 21 yards in.

Fewer red zone opportunities most certainly affects everybody on the offense, including really fast RBs.

It's just not easy to score long TDs from the RB spot, no matter how fast you are. Chris Johnson's speed makes him more likely to break the long ones than slower RBs, but it is still going to be a rarity. In 294 touches he had TWO long TDs. Maybe that goes up, maybe not... but long TDs are not a stat that you can accurately project.

Some are predicting an amazing season from Johnson. What goes into these amazing seasons, though? First you have to have natural talent, which Johnson has. Then you have to have a confluence of circumstances to allow that success; good O-line, good surrounding talent, a well-conceived offense, strong defense, numerous TD opportunities, and one final thing that is unpredictable but very important: health. Not just the health of the RB, but of the team.

Basically, everything went right for Tennessee last year:

Everything is not likely to go right for Tennessee this year as it did last year, and they haven't added anything significant to the offense to make it more dynamic.

Projections:

265 rushes, 4.65 ypc, 1232 yards

60 receptions, 7.2 ypr, 432 yards

7 total TDs

Good for right around a RB10 finish, with some upside if those TDs go up.

Good O-Line - AgreeGood Surrounding Talent - Disagree

A Well-Conceived Offense - Strongly Disagree

TEN had one of the most uncreative offenses I've seen in a long time, and on the offensive side of the ball (sans the O-Line), there wasn't much on the talent front. CJ did all that last year with 8 and 9 in the box. With the addition of Washington & Britt, defenses will be forced to respect the mid range to long ball - that should only help CJ (assuming Britt gets playing time).

BTW - Your entire post was essentially saying CJ won’t be as good last year, but your predictions are giving him more rush attempts, more rush yards, more receptions, and more reception yards than last year. The only thing that's difference is the TD (lower by 3) but you leave it open to him getting more TD's...

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Good O-Line - AgreeGood Surrounding Talent - DisagreeA Well-Conceived Offense - Strongly DisagreeTEN had one of the most uncreative offenses I've seen in a long time, and on the offensive side of the ball (sans the O-Line), there wasn't much on the talent front. CJ did all that last year with 8 and 9 in the box. With the addition of Washington & Britt, defenses will be forced to respect the mid range to long ball - that should only help CJ (assuming Britt gets playing time).BTW - Your entire post was essentially saying CJ won’t be as good last year, but your predictions are giving him more rush attempts, more rush yards, more receptions, and more reception yards than last year. The only thing that's difference is the TD (lower by 3) but you leave it open to him getting more TD's...

The points that you are agreeing or disagreeing with in my post were in reference to what is needed for a RB to become elite, not in reference to what CJ had last season. Sorry if that was not clear.I like him to improve and be a better NFL player than he was last year. I think he will improve in the passing game.I don't think Washington is a threat that matters in how teams will defend Tenn. I don't think Britt will make a difference in year one, either. I see the same uncreative offense as last year, with only one playmaker, CJ.Basically, I think his overall team situation will regress from last year a bit, but Johnson will improve as a player in year two. So I think he will do about as well, overall, as he did last year.

 

[Banger]

Good O-Line - AgreeGood Surrounding Talent - DisagreeA Well-Conceived Offense - Strongly DisagreeTEN had one of the most uncreative offenses I've seen in a long time, and on the offensive side of the ball (sans the O-Line), there wasn't much on the talent front. CJ did all that last year with 8 and 9 in the box. With the addition of Washington & Britt, defenses will be forced to respect the mid range to long ball - that should only help CJ (assuming Britt gets playing time).BTW - Your entire post was essentially saying CJ won’t be as good last year, but your predictions are giving him more rush attempts, more rush yards, more receptions, and more reception yards than last year. The only thing that's difference is the TD (lower by 3) but you leave it open to him getting more TD's...

The points that you are agreeing or disagreeing with in my post were in reference to what is needed for a RB to become elite, not in reference to what CJ had last season. Sorry if that was not clear.I like him to improve and be a better NFL player than he was last year. I think he will improve in the passing game.I don't think Washington is a threat that matters in how teams will defend Tenn. I don't think Britt will make a difference in year one, either. I see the same uncreative offense as last year, with only one playmaker, CJ.Basically, I think his overall team situation will regress from last year a bit, but Johnson will improve as a player in year two. So I think he will do about as well, overall, as he did last year.

I feel pretty much the same way...I think the team will regress (not a great deal probably 9-7, 10-6ish) but he will progress due to a larger role in the playbook and a desire to feed him the ball more. I really don't think a 3rd wr like Washington or a rookie TE and WR can be expected to make a significant impact. I was hoping for Holt as I thought he could possibly be that kind of a difference maker but he chose Jax over Tenn. If those guys do make a difference I think that he could have a very good year but I wouldn't count on it. The good thing is that their weapons really couldn't get too much worse.

 

[gonzobill5]

When looking back on Chris Johnson's 2008 a couple things stand out:

- he had 240 rushes despite only topping 20 carries in a game once, in week 7 against GB

- that game went into OT, and was one of only 3 weeks in which CJ received more carries in the second half of a game than in the first

- likewise there were only 5 weeks where Lendale was utilized more in the first half (2 of those weeks he was barely used at all)

- CJ only caught 67% of his targets for a 6.0 ypc

These things indicate to me that Johnson's ceiling could be as high as any other player, particularly in ppr. First of all, look at how the Titans season panned out. They were unbeaten until week 12 and were on the good side of about 6 blowouts. Lendale appeared to play the role of the closer - but the GB game indicates that the Titans want to use CJ whenever the game isn't a blowout. I'm willing to bet that the Titans don't win 13 games again, so that makes me confident that Johnson has more carries.

The reception statistics don't make a lot of sense. Here we have a really explosive player coupled with a QB who likes to dumpoff (look at what he did with Tiki and Lamont Jordan) who only caught 67% of his passes and caught a pretty pathetic percentage for a RB. One explanation that makes sense is that Tenn didn't intend to utilize Johnson much in the passing game coming into the year. They planned to run a lot, and brought in Crumpler as another target for VY, but things changed in hurry. They were so successful (winning games) that they never really needed to expand Johnson's role. Another explanation is related to game situation. As I mentioned, Tennessee didn't lose much, and they didn't have to come from behind much either. These are the game situations in which pass catching RBs can rack up the points. With the loss of Haynesworth among other things, I expect more of these situations in 09, and I think CJ can flourish in them.

260 carries

1250 rushing yards

72 targets

60 receptions

500 receiving yards

12 total TDs

 

[MAC_32]

A lot of good stuff here so far. Something I'll add, many seemed to think Chris Johnson would be a great asset in the passing game (guilty as charged) and he wasn't bad by any means but his numbers aren't anything special. Based on what I saw last year he had problems catching an unusually high amount of balls that weren't right in his break basket, to compound matters I read a recent camp report that these problems came up again during their recent mini camp. I wouldn't expect his # of rec to increase. Sure it's possible, but I think it'd be a poor expectation.

One thing to really make you feel good about him though - the playoff game last year. The Tennessee offense completely fell apart without him available. He's going to get his touches, no reason to expect much of a regression from last season.

 

[Bri]

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

10 receptions for the year is hardly a measuring stick

 

[Bri]

Good O-Line - Agree

Good Surrounding Talent - Disagree

A Well-Conceived Offense - Strongly Disagree

good line-they were great! Mike Munchak should have won some sort of award. With possibly the best TWO tackles in football there's little doubt in my mind they'll have a top offensive line again. The Titans are also ridiculously deep at TE. They are one of the most powerful fronts in football if they choose to be. I think they're due as much credit as Lendale for his success and for giving Kerry way more than enough time to throw. I disagree with one of your last two to a degree. Mike Heimerdinger had a very well conceived offense taylored to his lack of talent. He made the most of what he had.

Cook, Britt and Washington should help to open things up some. Having Gage not miss half the year(or so it seemed) can't hurt either.

The problem/great attribute of Chris Johnson is that although he is fantastic in space, they need to get him in that position. It's much easier said than done when defenses are cheating toward Chris wherever he goes. It's much easier to go away from Chris-away from where the D is cheating toward.

Johnson sat a bunch of their playoff loss, don't forget.

Against the Ravens great D the first time, Johnson showed plenty. He showed power(not just speed) and also, maybe more importantly toward the future of the TEAM, that he can be a terrific decoy. I think that Ravens game was a big deal for the Titans O last year. Again, any time a D is cheating in any direction, they can be burned and Heimerdinger was all over that.

All the fatdale people missed Lendale's 4-5 big runs last year and many seemed to miss the times Johnson ran with power. These backs are not one dimensional and Heimerdinger is creative. I wouldn't expect a duplicate of last year. Heimerdinger is a "lock" for a new wrinkle or two.

One thing that wasn't often used although they practiced it alot, was getting Johnson out at WR.

One comment by the Titans after the draft, glossed over by many, was draftee Cook's speed for the running game. Despite his receiving ability, he might be Johnson's escort outside.

My only concern with Johnson is staying healthy and that's just one of those gut things I guess I need to shake off. He was durable last year. Johnson is a special special player.

 

[cstu]

I've heard several people make the case that Johnson is in line for a heavier workload this year. On the surface, that seems quite logical to me. On the other hand, there are two issues to consider that may contradict that logic.

1) The Titans ran the ball 508 times last year, and this year are almost assuredly going to have a weaker defense...which to me argues that they'll have to throw more. And with Kerry Collins at the helm, I fear that's going to mean fewer sustained drives and fewer red zone opportunities

2) People seem awfully quick to dismiss LenDale White and yet he didn't 'vulture' goal-line carries last year. He WAS the goal-line back. It would be one thing if White struggled in that role, but he hasn't. In fact, White has proven to be one of the best goal-line backs in the league. Why would the Titans screw up a great system?

Chris Johnson had 4 goal line carries last year, and to his credit converted two of them. But again, White's one great strength is his goal-line prowess.

In the last two seasons, White leads the league in goal-line carries and has converted 53% of them for scores.

I'm optimistic about Johnson's chances, but I'm unclear as to why he's going to score more touchdowns.

You make great points and I agree with you when his rushing TD's probably won't increase too much (I predict 10 compared to 9 last year and his rushing attempts to increase 19 or just over 1 attempt/game). I do think his TD's will increase is in the passing game. You put the ball in CJ's hands out in space, and he doesn't need to be around the goal line in order to score. From all I’ve heard, this is where they plan to utilize him more

I keep hearing this, and I'm not saying you're wrong.BUT...Johnson only averaged 6.0 yards per reception last year.

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

The problem was that they didn't move him around at all, didn't line him up wide, and nearly all from my recollection were simple screens that for the most part were pretty predictable (WR/TE covered and Collins would dump it off and hope CJ would make a few guys miss). I don't remember any that they sent him downfield (beyond the line of scrimmage) which is what they've alluded that they plan on doing this year. They just need to get him beyond the line of scrimmage because once he gets to that next level and gets his speed up he makes guys look silly out there with their bad angles.For him to truly hit the next level they really need some other threat on the offense to give him some space. I watched all the Titans games last year and you didn't have to be a genius to see what was coming. He constantly faced 8-9 in the box and still performed remarkably well. If they could get a decent threat at the TE or WR position it will do wonders for his ypc/ypr. I don't know that their draftees will have much of an impact but I certainly don't think they will hurt.

:yes : I'd love to see CJ line up in the slot, or other WR positions. IMO, he has the unique ability to be a top notch RB and a Welker clone (maybe not as good, but he could be used that way). The Titans offense just isn't creative.

 

[cstu]

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

10 receptions for the year is hardly a measuring stick

Even if you double that to 20 receptions, he still only 42nd.

 

[gonzobill5]

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

10 receptions for the year is hardly a measuring stick

Even if you double that to 20 receptions, he still only 42nd.

I can't figure out what the heck either of these posts are trying to say. Who had only 10 catches? Why would doubling it to 20 change his YPC?Edit: Nevermind me.

 

[Bri]

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

10 receptions for the year is hardly a measuring stick

Even if you double that to 20 receptions, he still only 42nd.

I can't figure out what the heck either of these posts are trying to say. Who had only 10 catches? Why would doubling it to 20 change his YPC?Edit: Nevermind me.

YPC is a silly statistic when used as the sole barometer thus ignoring the other receiving stats. Most leagues do not score YPC they(PPR) score points for receptions, yards, and TDs.

Chris Johnson was 14th among RBs with 43 receptions.

That's the seventh highest rookie RB total this decade.

He was 8th among RBs with 1228 rushing yards

That was also 8th among rookie RBs this decade.

His 10 TDs puts him at roughly 12th(ties, guessing odd sorting error) among RBs last year

His 10 TDs also puts him 8th among rookie RBs this decade.

One can use any statistic they want to rate RBs, I prefer the one's leagues use to score.

 

[msommer]

His floor would seem close to what he did last year.

 

[Jason Wood]

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

10 receptions for the year is hardly a measuring stick

Even if you double that to 20 receptions, he still only 42nd.

I can't figure out what the heck either of these posts are trying to say. Who had only 10 catches? Why would doubling it to 20 change his YPC?Edit: Nevermind me.

YPC is a silly statistic when used as the sole barometer thus ignoring the other receiving stats. Most leagues do not score YPC they(PPR) score points for receptions, yards, and TDs.

Chris Johnson was 14th among RBs with 43 receptions.

That's the seventh highest rookie RB total this decade.

He was 8th among RBs with 1228 rushing yards

That was also 8th among rookie RBs this decade.

His 10 TDs puts him at roughly 12th(ties, guessing odd sorting error) among RBs last year

His 10 TDs also puts him 8th among rookie RBs this decade.

One can use any statistic they want to rate RBs, I prefer the one's leagues use to score.

Bri,

The YPC measure was in direct response to another post who said Chris Johnson was going to make MORE plays in space this year as a RECEIVER and that would lead to more TDs. YPC IS a relevant measuring stick just as YPR or YPA are for their respective positions, particularly when measuring a player's 'explosiveness' as the previous poster was trying to do. Chris Johnson MAY be an explosive receiver, but he sure didn't show it last year. If you want to argue that was due to scheme, that's one thing. But then I ask, what's changed about the scheme? Same QB, same OC.

And please go check MY projections for Johnson before assuming I'm making any value judgment about his receiving TOTALS. I think he'll catch plenty of passes this year, I just want some evidence that he'll be MORE with EACH reception that goes beyond someone simply stating he's an explosive open field receiver for the sake of it.

 

[obxlegends]

The YPC measure was in direct response to another post who said Chris Johnson was going to make MORE plays in space this year as a RECEIVER and that would lead to more TDs. YPC IS a relevant measuring stick just as YPR or YPA are for their respective positions, particularly when measuring a player's 'explosiveness' as the previous poster was trying to do. Chris Johnson MAY be an explosive receiver, but he sure didn't show it last year. If you want to argue that was due to scheme, that's one thing. But then I ask, what's changed about the scheme? Same QB, same OC.And please go check MY projections for Johnson before assuming I'm making any value judgment about his receiving TOTALS. I think he'll catch plenty of passes this year, I just want some evidence that he'll be MORE with EACH reception that goes beyond someone simply stating he's an explosive open field receiver for the sake of it.

Jason I see your point, I really do. I just think it's easier for us to believe our eyes even though the raw data doesn't seem to correlate. We've seen Johnson's explosiveness and elusiveness and believe it will translate to numbers even if the past statistics don't support it. Sometimes what you see means more than what's happened.As a frame of reference I'll give you Walter Payton who had 6.5 yards per reception in his rookie season. In six of the next seven seasons he was over 9 yards per reception. Sometimes you just have to believe in what you see.

 

[Bri]

Bri,

The YPC measure was in direct response to another post who said Chris Johnson was going to make MORE plays in space this year as a RECEIVER and that would lead to more TDs. YPC IS a relevant measuring stick just as YPR or YPA are for their respective positions, particularly when measuring a player's 'explosiveness' as the previous poster was trying to do. Chris Johnson MAY be an explosive receiver, but he sure didn't show it last year. If you want to argue that was due to scheme, that's one thing. But then I ask, what's changed about the scheme? Same QB, same OC.

Chris Johnson showed last year he is one of the most explosive players in the NFL to people that watched the games. He's the fastest RB I've seen in quite some time and there's been thousands(if not tens of thousands) of comments similar about him even if it's "holy *cow* is that guy fast" or "speed kills" or somesuch. Remember the old game threads here? When he turns on the jets, he is impressive.As far as scheme, this was mentioned above but to summarize-players were brought in that the D will hopefully have to respect and not be able to cheat so much in Chris' direction. The lack of respect for the others made it almost comical at times. I mean when a CB is so far inside that it looks like no one is covering the WR.....

And please go check MY projections for Johnson before assuming I'm making any value judgment about his receiving TOTALS. I think he'll catch plenty of passes this year, I just want some evidence that he'll be MORE with EACH reception that goes beyond someone simply stating he's an explosive open field receiver for the sake of it.

I replied that 10 catches was a poor barometer or somesuch several posts ago. I never mentioned you or singled you out in my last post where I went into more detail. It's not about you, it's a silly statistic when it is used as the sole barometer. At any point, if someone ignores the total(that were used in the mathematical formula to figure out the average) it's not going to bear reasonable results IMO. This YPC and considering Chris Johnson not explosive because of it is exactly what I was refering to, before it even happened.

 

[FUBAR]

...players were brought in that the D will hopefully have to respect and not be able to cheat so much in Chris' direction.

call me skeptical, but for the immediate future, I'm not seeing any of the new guys as having a big impact here. 2-3 years from now, I sure hope so. I'm about Cook's potential in particular, but he won't pay off this year, most likely.

 

[switz]

One can use any statistic they want to rate RBs, I prefer the one's leagues use to score.

Oh but that's so foolish... you need to use the statistics which indicate how much opportunity a player will get, before you can then project how much they will score in an FF league.YPC and YPR indicate how effective a player is per touch, If they aren't particularly effective they won't get as many opportunities.If they don't get as many opportunities, they won't score points for you.

 

[Bri]

One can use any statistic they want to rate RBs, I prefer the one's leagues use to score.

Oh but that's so foolish... you need to use the statistics which indicate how much opportunity a player will get, before you can then project how much they will score in an FF league.YPC and YPR indicate how effective a player is per touch, If they aren't particularly effective they won't get as many opportunities.If they don't get as many opportunities, they won't score points for you.

Projections are a waste of time for me personally but for others I can see how it'd work for them.(not my thing, nother time nother thread)Projections are often inaccurate at face value. What most people seem to value most about projections is that it gives somewhat of a rigid method to get to a final set of resulting rankings. As you know, the rankings then get used during a draft or in trades etc.If your projections(or anyone's) are inaccurate, it hardly matters how you came to any conclusion.If you want to go back to the resulting rankings(again IMO the true benefit of projections) then well we're right back to my original post where stats that are scored (yards, catches, TDs etc) are far more useful than YPC.To reiterate- IMO most people use "yards per" stats as a beginning point which is cool. To use it as an ending point, doesn't show much of anything. I mean we both know plenty of 3rd down backs that averaged way way way more than Emmitt Smith but Smith surely was more productive. I think it's important to keep it as a beginning point.make sense?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

LenDale White's still there so Chris Johnson is going to have to share the ball which will keep him from reaching an elite level.

 

[Pickle Rody]

I'm thinking either CJ3 is underrated or LenDale is overrated, or both. I agree with the people who say the Titans won't run as much this season, however, I disagree that it hurts Johnson's numbers. I'd say 80-90% of the lost caries come from the LenDale count. I feel White will still get goal line work, but 200 carries won't happen again. 125 is about what I'm expecting and if the Titans are worse than I think they are I could see fewer than 100 for White.

Which brings me to Johnson, who is BY FAR the biggest play maker this team has as well as its most valuable offensive player, which is rare for a RB. I think his touches will go up this year(carries included) and I don't think having film on him will make it much easier to stop him.

Also, keep in mind the Titans play in a pretty awful run stuffing division and they play the even worse NFC West. I think Johnson is in for a monster year and when you add in the increase in receiving usage, which may not be as big as some indicate, but on the flip side he's far too talented to have such a small YPC.

My Predictions: 270 carries, 1,250 yards and 11TD's

50 catches, 410 yards and 2 TD's

1,660 total yards and 13 total TD's

Really, I think I'm more likely to have him too low than too high. His yards-per could be higher than I'm projecting. He should be a 1st rounder in any league.

This comment made me think of Brian Westbrook. I can easily envision Johnson becoming Westbrook-esque in the passing game under Collins, who I believe likes to dump-off short (his arm is nowhere near what it used to be.)

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

10 receptions for the year is hardly a measuring stick

I'm not sold on this stat either. This is too limited a data base and there are too many other variables involved to simply say this stat specifically leads one to think he is not a home run threat in the open field as a receiver. There has been talk of getting Johnson more touches in 2009:

Wed May 13, 10:45 AM

Jim Wyatt, of The Tennessean, reports the Tennessee Titans want to put RB Chris Johnson to work even more this season. That could mean more carries and more catches, but also more creative ways to get them. 'There's places we can move him, routes we can run with him, looks we can do with him that we held back last year because I thought I was stretching him too much,' offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger said. 'But C.J. needs to show he can do those things and he'll work at it. And the more he shows the more we can give him. If C.J. wants to learn it and work at it then we have a chance to move him all around the place.'

This leads me to my prediction:280 carries, 1456 yards, 5.2 ypc, 13 TD's

53 receptions, 456 yards, 8.6 ypr, 4 TD's

1912 total yards, 17 total TD's

No kidding. Those folks who are not seriously considering Johnson as a top 5 RB in fantasy football, no mater what type of league, are going to feel like they missed the boat at the end of 2009 and also wish they had taken a less dismissive approach to Johnson. I won't fall into that category of FF players.

 

[Bri]

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

(To restate something) The Titans practiced with Chris Johnson as a wide receiver ALOT they didn't use him much lined up out wide. I guess one could either figure they scrapped that idea or that's something they will actually use a bunch this year.

Lined up as a WR versus as a RB would affect receiving stats and might be an interesting turn for this thread, projections for him.

 

[Pickle Rody]

I guess one could either figure they scrapped that idea or that's something they will actually use a bunch this year.Lined up as a WR versus as a RB would affect receiving stats and might be an interesting turn for this thread, projections for him.

See my post above yours with quotes from Heimerdinger.

 

[Bri]

I guess one could either figure they scrapped that idea or that's something they will actually use a bunch this year.Lined up as a WR versus as a RB would affect receiving stats and might be an interesting turn for this thread, projections for him.

See my post above yours with quotes from Heimerdinger.

yeah we posted about the same time I think, good Wyatt quote

 

[mikel0254]

79 RBs had at least 10 receptions last year...Johnson ranked 66th in yards-per-reception. Does that really speak to his being a home run threat in the open field as a receiver?

(To restate something) The Titans practiced with Chris Johnson as a wide receiver ALOT they didn't use him much lined up out wide. I guess one could either figure they scrapped that idea or that's something they will actually use a bunch this year.

Lined up as a WR versus as a RB would affect receiving stats and might be an interesting turn for this thread, projections for him.

Wasn't he used as a WR in college too? I thought I remembered reading somewhere that he was brought in to E Carolina as a WR, but they realized how dangerous he was running it, so they made him their RB. The kid has hands. Without looking back, someone mentioned he dropped a lot of passes last year. From the games I saw (didn’t see them all), I noticed a lot of the drops was when he was sitting flat footed not expecting a pass, and Collins threw it well off the mark on the dump off pass. Granted, he shouldn’t have been so flat footed, but if he's expecting to be more involved in the pass game, hopefully he keeps those feet moving from now on...

 

[rzrback77]

Chris Johnson was the Rookie RB speedster that more than a few shied away from in 08 because of his size. Those that drafted him were rewarded greatly as he wound up as the RB11. He basically shared the backfield with Lendale White, but compared to White was way more dynamic and expectations for CJ continue to soar while many continue to doubt why the Titans even keep White around, let alone play him. The Titans also drafted a RB this year, Javon Ringer and he also seems to be ignored by most in deference to the eye test results from Chris Johnson.

Additionally, the Titans lost their defensive line stalwart and it is doubtful that their defense will be nearly as dominant in 09. As a matter of fact, their entire team could struggle relative to their 08 performance and their offense last season was really not that good.

Many seem to think that CJ will continue to carry the team, but there are some warning signs for the Titans. Kerry Collins remains the starting QB and he doesn't strike fear in opposing defenses. Their WRs would probably rank near the bottom of the NFL. There is really not a lot to focus on besides CJ.

A closer look at CJ's 08 stats:

First eight games 146 carries for 715 yards 18.3 carries per game and 4.9 ypc. He also had 35 targets, 24 catches and 164 yds. That is he averaged 3 receptions per game and 20 yards. He scored 6 TDs.

The next seven games (he sat out the last game of the regular season) he had 105 carries for 513 yards 15 carries per game and stayed at 4.9 ypc. He also had 27 targets, 19 catches and 96 yds. That is he averaged 2.7 receptions per game and 14 yards. He scored 4 TDs.

Comparing these stats, it seems that his usage was reduced as the season wore on. I am not sure that these numbers indicate more usage this season as most in this thread are predicting.

Lastly, his current ADP is RB7 and 7 overall and he ranked only RB11 in 08. Folks are expecting more from CJ and there are many indicators that could lead to the assumption that his stats could be reduced.

Chris Johnson 240 carries 1128 yards 4.7 ypc 60 targets 40 catches 280 yards and 6 total TDs

 

[TS Garp]

Johnson is an absolutely electrifying player with immense talent. It's easy to look at his performance last season and assume that even better things are in store for this year, and I know that a lot of people are very high on him (I've been listening to the Audible -- awesome stuff -- and Bloom is his biggest fan). However, I'm not sure that we can necessarily assume that his numbers will increase substantially. While Lendale White isn't exciting, he's effective, and Fisher's comfortable with his role in the offense. While I'm not buying into the "Lendale's in the best shape of his career" stories, he's also not going anywhere. It's possible that White's role might not be as prominent if the Titans are playing from behind more often, but he should still be the guy at the goal line. Johnson only had 20 or more carries once last season and that may not increase. A lot is made of his pass-catching abilities, but he has work to do there. He only had 5 receptions of 10 or more yards all season.

Johnson struggled against Top 10 defenses last year and absolutely shredded KC, Cleveland, and Detroit. He won't get to face them in 2009 (although he does get St. Louis in Week 14) but he doesn't have to go up against Chicago, Minnesota, and Baltimore again (it should be noted that he was playing very well against Baltimore before he went down with an injury).

I like him a lot but I'm not ready to say that he'll take a big step forward.

My projection:

246 carries, 1,132 yds, 4.6 YPC, 7 td's, 48 receptions, 336 yds, 7.0 YPR, 3 td's

Edited for grammar.

 

[stugnut]

<snip>White vulturing a dozen or so TD's he was able to put up a solid year (finished 11th).</snip>

15 (!) TD's, if you can believe it!