Player Spotlight: David Garrard (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: David Garrard, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: David Garrard Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[gonzobill5]

Last year, he was constantly under pressure. With the work they did in the draft and signing Tra, I'm counting on an improved OL, but not necessarily an improved WR corps. The running game will remain effective.

It's too easy to get caught saying 08 is his floor - keep in mind that 535 pass attempts is high for JAX and that Garrard has only had more than 2 passing TDs in a game twice. That indicates to me that his ceiling isn't all that high either.

310/500 for 3600 yards. 18 Tds 10 Ints. Add in 350 yards rushing and 2 rushing TDs and he'll probably be right around QB 10 if he can stay healthy.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Last year, he was constantly under pressure. With the work they did in the draft and signing Tra, I'm counting on an improved OL, but not necessarily an improved WR corps. The running game will remain effective.

It's too easy to get caught saying 08 is his floor - keep in mind that 535 pass attempts is high for JAX and that Garrard has only had more than 2 passing TDs in a game twice. That indicates to me that his ceiling isn't all that high either.

310/500 for 3600 yards. 18 Tds 10 Ints. Add in 350 yards rushing and 2 rushing TDs and he'll probably be right around QB 10 if he can stay healthy.

They only have to replace 113 receptions (Outgoing: Williams, Jones, Porter) with Torry Holt, a healthy Mike Walker, Mike Thomas, and Jarrett Dillard. I don't think there will be too much of a dropoff, assuming Holt catches more than 60 balls. The good news is that the guys we have now are motivated and can actually catch the ball. I think Dillard is going to be a monster in this system. I think he's going to have a similar impact as Davone Bess did in Miami.No more lackadaisical play from the Jags WR's. I think Garrard has a better season in 08.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Garrard is one guy that I'm going to look to avoid in 2009. Firstly...

Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew 2007

390 Carries

1970 Yards

5.05 YPC

14 TD's

Jaguars 2007

Carries by someone other than Taylor/Jones-Drew/QB = 62

Pass Attempts (including sacks) = 500

Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew 2008

340 Carries

1380 Yards

4.06 YPC

13 TD's

Jaguars 2008

Carries by someone other than Taylor/Jones-Drew/QB = 11

Pass Attempts (including sacks) = 579

This is a team that sets up the pass via the run. And while Fred Taylor has not been a premier fantasy producer for quite some time, his value to the Jaguars as a significant part of their RBBC can't be understated. With him off to the Patriots, the entire load falls on Jones-Drew and a cast that include Chauncey Washington, Greg Jones, Montell Owens and Rashad Jennings. That's not promising for a QB whose best season came when they accumulated 450+ rushes.

Secondly...

2008 Torry Holt

16 Games

64 Receptions

796 Yards

3 TD's

2008 Matt Jones

12 Games

65 Receptions

761 Yards

2 TD's

Whatever Jones has or hasn't been off the field...it's tough to argue that he didn't have a significant on-field breakthrough in 2008. Did the Jaguars improve themselves by signing Holt? Certainly Holt is only a year removed from an 1100 yard season. But this looks like a case of a robbing Peter to pay Paul type of FA signing.

Thirdly...

Looking back at the 2008 season, I simply can't believe how quickly and thoroughly this team self-destructed. Whatever the reason for it...blame generally goes in a few directions when such declines occur. 1) The Head Coach and 2) The QB. If this team gets off to a poor start, Del Rio's seat is going to get hotter. Under such circumstancese, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for Del Rio to bench Garrard. He surprised many 2 years ago when he replaced Leftwich with Garrard. Will this happen? Don't know...but Del Rio is a bit of a wild-card and you can't discount a QB switch in an effort to 'shake things up'.

Prediction: 283 Completions 472 Attempts , 3158 Passing Yards, 14 TD's 13 INT's 56 Rushes, 172 Rushing Yards, 2 TD's.

 

[gonzobill5]

Looking back at the 2008 season, I simply can't believe how quickly and thoroughly this team self-destructed. Whatever the reason for it...blame generally goes in a few directions when such declines occur. 1) The Head Coach and 2) The QB. If this team gets off to a poor start, Del Rio's seat is going to get hotter. Under such circumstancese, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for Del Rio to bench Garrard. He surprised many 2 years ago when he replaced Leftwich with Garrard. Will this happen? Don't know...but Del Rio is a bit of a wild-card and you can't discount a QB switch in an effort to 'shake things up'.

Prediction: 283 Completions 472 Attempts , 3158 Passing Yards, 14 TD's 13 INT's 56 Rushes, 172 Rushing Yards, 2 TD's.

Is there anyone on the roster that is even a remote threat to take his job?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Looking back at the 2008 season, I simply can't believe how quickly and thoroughly this team self-destructed. Whatever the reason for it...blame generally goes in a few directions when such declines occur. 1) The Head Coach and 2) The QB. If this team gets off to a poor start, Del Rio's seat is going to get hotter. Under such circumstancese, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for Del Rio to bench Garrard. He surprised many 2 years ago when he replaced Leftwich with Garrard. Will this happen? Don't know...but Del Rio is a bit of a wild-card and you can't discount a QB switch in an effort to 'shake things up'.

Prediction: 283 Completions 472 Attempts , 3158 Passing Yards, 14 TD's 13 INT's 56 Rushes, 172 Rushing Yards, 2 TD's.

Is there anyone on the roster that is even a remote threat to take his job?

I don't think it will matter. When a coach is in trouble, he'll start flailing and given the way the Jags fell apart last season, I could see panic setting in even it's the wrong decision.

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Looking back at the 2008 season, I simply can't believe how quickly and thoroughly this team self-destructed. Whatever the reason for it...blame generally goes in a few directions when such declines occur. 1) The Head Coach and 2) The QB. If this team gets off to a poor start, Del Rio's seat is going to get hotter. Under such circumstancese, it would not be out of the realm of possibility for Del Rio to bench Garrard. He surprised many 2 years ago when he replaced Leftwich with Garrard. Will this happen? Don't know...but Del Rio is a bit of a wild-card and you can't discount a QB switch in an effort to 'shake things up'.

Prediction: 283 Completions 472 Attempts , 3158 Passing Yards, 14 TD's 13 INT's 56 Rushes, 172 Rushing Yards, 2 TD's.

Is there anyone on the roster that is even a remote threat to take his job?

Nope. People suspect that Todd Bouman is going to beat out Cleo Lemon for the #2. So no.

 

[travdogg]

I think Garrard will be a steal this year. The weapons should be better this year with Holt and a hopefully healthy Walker, plus MJD on the field more often. The O-line was majorly upgraded with Thomas, Britton and Monroe(who was the draft's top O-lineman in my opinion) which should help the offense all around.

My predictions:

3,300 yards passing

21 passing TD's

350 yards rushing

3 rushing TD's

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

The Jags' 5 biggest problems last year were their LT, RT, LG, RG, and C.

I don't know if it was that bad, but the wretched O-line directly led to their offensive woes, both rushing and passing. As Travdogg mentioned, they upgraded their o-line through the draft and free agency, so that is reason for hope.

Garrard is a solid QB, and he enhances his fantasy value with his rushing numbers.

Projection:

3450 passing yards, 18 TDs

290 rushing yards, 2 TDs

Good for QB 9-12

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Everyone is talking upgrade and then projecting him with fewer yards than last year, surprising.

Without a true compliment to MJD, I don't think this offense will be as successful leading to more pass attempts by Garrard but a less success rate.

3400 yards passing - 17 td's - 15 picks - 235 rushing - 2 td

 

[The Man with the Plan]

David Garrard is pretty old. He turned 31 in February. I'm not sure how much longer you can rely on his rushing stats. The passing numbers won't be great due to there being no weapons and a mediocre running game. I think that 2007 was his career year and he won't come close to those numbers again. Hoping for a bounce back year is a waste of time.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

David Garrard is the type of fantasy backup QB that will not hurt you when your starter is on a bye but likely doesn't have the uspide to allow you to use him as trade bait for a team that needs a QB during the season. Jacksonville remains a team committed to running the ball and while some will see their WR corps as upgraded, an aging Tory Holt, and unproven players such as Mike Walker and a couple of rookies doesn't guarantee success. Garrard has some talent but he's just another QB in the long line who offer solid but unspectacular play.

3,498 passing yards - 17 TDs, 11 Ints.

224 rushing yards - 3 TDs

 

[gonzobill5]

David Garrard is the type of fantasy backup QB that will not hurt you when your starter is on a bye but likely doesn't have the uspide to allow you to use him as trade bait for a team that needs a QB during the season. Jacksonville remains a team committed to running the ball and while some will see their WR corps as upgraded, an aging Tory Holt, and unproven players such as Mike Walker and a couple of rookies doesn't guarantee success. Garrard has some talent but he's just another QB in the long line who offer solid but unspectacular play.3,498 passing yards - 17 TDs, 11 Ints.224 rushing yards - 3 TDs

This sounds about right. If I land a top 5 QB I don't see any reason for him to be on my team. If I draft a guy that has a shot to leapfrog into the top 5, I think Garrard gives me a lot of security.

 

[rzrback77]

David Garrard had a terrible year in 08 as the Jaguar offensive line sufferred injury and disappointment upon injury. If you read the board m uch this off-season, there are not many less talented QBs out there in the NFL. Don't even get started on the WR talent. Since Jimmy Smith retired (failed drug tests) in 05, the Jaguar WRs have been a vast wasteland.

Matt Jones did all right last year and Reggie Williams had some success the year before, but nobody is putting either of them even as a solid WR 2 and they have been the best that the Jaguars have had to offer. They added Torry Holt in the off-season and even gimpy and old, he will likely be the best they have had since 05. Mike Walker has been the tease of all teases for a few years, but maybe he turns a corner in 09. They also drafted two talented rookies. Many want to discount rookie WRs, but recent success by Boldin in 03, Michael Clayton in 04, Colston in 06, and Royal, Avery, and Jackson last year seem to offer hope for the Jaguar rookies.

Back to Garrard, he has been the starter for the past two years and has accomplished the following in individual games:

1) Less than 200 yds and 1 TD or less - 5 times in 08 and 3 times in 07

2) More than 300 yds or multiple TDs - 4 times in 08 and 7 times in 07

In his two years as a starter, he ranked overall QB11 in 07 QB16 in 08. With all the poor line play last season, he still ranked QB11. Yet according to FBG, his current ADP is QB20. Personally, I like the offensive line's chance to improve in 09. I like the WRs better this year than last and without Fred Taylor, the running game may not be as strong as it has been. Garrard looks to be a bargain price that can provide a stable situation for a late round pick.

340 completions in 540 attempts 63.0% for 3888 yards and 18 TDs with 12 ints and minimal rush yards and 2 TDs

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

In his two years as a starter, he ranked overall QB11 in 07 QB16 in 08. With all the poor line play last season, he still ranked QB11.

What?Also, he finished 7th in pass attempts last year, only a throw behind Rodgers for 6th.top 5:Brees CutlerWarnerMcNabbP ManningHe threw more than Favre, Rivers, and Cassel, among others, while Shaun Hill and Schaub are another two to rank ahead of him if you use ppg as the measure, with a couple guys below him being virtually tied at his spot.Basically, he threw a ton and didn't get much out of it.His '07 #'s project out to about 100 fewer throws over 16 games, which would've put him around 16th in the league on that.On the flip side, Mojo catches a ton of balls, so he'll get credit for all that.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

He hit a bomb to Troy Williamson for 75 yards the other night - last year his longest pass was 41 yards

I think Holt/Williamson and potentially Walker (if he can get on the field) will make a difference.

With the field stretched a little more I could potentially see a bump in the rush numbers as well - maybe 400 yards