Player Spotlight: Donovan McNabb (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Donovan McNabb Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

I am not generally one that includes injury predictions in the projections thread, but McNabb hasn't played a full schedule since 2003. He has missed games every season and only averaged 12 games per year over the previous four seasons. This must be taken into account if you are going to draft McNabb. You must follow up that selection with a potential fill-in guy if McNabb misses games.

He still scores well on a points per game basis, but will he be there for your fantasy season playoffs? He has only finished in the top ten once since 01. He is heavily featured in the offensive plan for the Eagles who like to get the ball to Westbrook in space and use him greatly as a receiver out of the backfield. His WRs are not considered elite, but they seem to get the job done. He also has a solid TE, if they can keep him on the field.

D McNabb 14 gms 280 comp 460 att 61% 3450 yds 24 TDs 11 ints 260 yds rushing 3 TDs

 

[Tanner9919]

for a guy who has played 9 NFL seasons, he's completed a full 16-game schedule 3 times..you HAVE to take that into account when talking about D. Mcnabb..

Only three times in his 9-yr career has he thrown 21 or MORE TD passes..

While his TD:INT ratio is more than 2:1, his mediocre lifetime comp percentage means a lot of bad passes and dropped balls by his ho-hum group of WR's..

414 att/2822/17/9

Can't imagine him playing a full 16-game schedule...Kolb era begins at some point this season..

 

[Sabertooth]

I think it is silly to state that he's missed time and then post his season totals. His PPG have been great throughout his career. Obviously if he misses time, you plug somebody else into the lineup so you need a borderling starter there. Thing is, once most people have their starter at QB, they don't choose a backup until much later. So you should be able to land a QB in the 15-18 range fairly late. Just find 3 or 4 guys that don't have bye week conflicts with McNabb and you should be all set.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

An amazing statistic: Donovan McNabb has played just 1 complete season since 2002.

That's shocking to me. I would have said that statement is false if given that question. I realized that he's missed some time but not that much time.

Couple that with the fact he's getting a little older, less mobile and the fans are on Donovan before the season is starting, it's hard for me to feel optimistic about his upcoming season.

3300 yards, 20 td's and 13 int's with 200 yards rushing and 1 td

 

[CentralPA]

I am not generally one that includes injury predictions in the projections thread, but McNabb hasn't played a full schedule since 2003. He has missed games every season and only averaged 12 games per year over the previous four seasons. This must be taken into account if you are going to draft McNabb. You must follow up that selection with a potential fill-in guy if McNabb misses games.He still scores well on a points per game basis, but will he be there for your fantasy season playoffs? He has only finished in the top ten once since 01. He is heavily featured in the offensive plan for the Eagles who like to get the ball to Westbrook in space and use him greatly as a receiver out of the backfield. His WRs are not considered elite, but they seem to get the job done. He also has a solid TE, if they can keep him on the field.D McNabb 14 gms 280 comp 460 att 61% 3450 yds 24 TDs 11 ints 260 yds rushing 3 TDs

I'll jump for joy if they get that production out of him this from a fan perspective. I'd definetly eye him up in the 5th rounder if he is there but would definetly need a reliable backup starter.

 

[notoriousbob]

No projection, but just wanted to add that the Eagles have the easiest SOS for QBs according to FBG SOS rankings. That can't hurt McNabb's value.

 

[LILB811]

An amazing statistic: Donovan McNabb has played just 1 complete season since 2002.That's shocking to me. I would have said that statement is false if given that question. I realized that he's missed some time but not that much time.Couple that with the fact he's getting a little older, less mobile and the fans are on Donovan before the season is starting, it's hard for me to feel optimistic about his upcoming season.3300 yards, 20 td's and 13 int's with 200 yards rushing and 1 td

I would just like to point out that in 2004 the only reason he didn’t play a 16 game schedule was because the Eagles had homefield locked up. He wasn’t injured. The first game of 2005 he took a late hit which really started the sports hernia issue. He played the entire season hurt and you could tell he wasn’t right. In 2006, he was arguably the best fantasy QB for the first half of the season until the torn ACL. Last year he missed 2 games to a sprained ankle and played very well the last 3 games of the season against teams that were all in the playoff race.The ankle and sports hernia should be non-issues, and usually they say it takes 2 years after ACL surgery to feel right again. Risk injury is definitely higher than others, but he should still have a solid year.I’ll say 14 games, 3500 yards, 25 td’s, 9 int’s, which is optimistic from an Eagles fan. If he’s doing that poorly I think Kolb gets a shot before he’d even approach 13 picks. McNabb is usually pretty good at not turning the ball over.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

He doesn't run as much as he used to. Hopefully more time for his knee to heal will have him run more. The weapons around him are good but not great. He'll get enough through the air but it's what he does on the ground that'll determine whether he's elite or not.

 

[Jon_Moore]

A full year removed from his injury, he's as close to 100% as he's going to be. He's god a solid offensive line, a solid defense, one of the best play makers in the game in Westbrook, 2 decent receivers in Curtis and Brown, but nothing game breaking after Westbrook, which makes it hard to love him.

In 9 years in the league, he's only played 16 games three times.

He's only thrown 500 passes more than once.

He's only thrown 20 or more TDs 3 times.

---25 or more twice

---30 or more once.

He's only finished in the top 10 3 times.

Once upon a time he was a great rushing QB giving you 400-500 Yards, but he's doing well to get 250 these days.

Given all these facts, I don't see any reason to suspect it to change this season. It's going to be hard to trust him as my QB1

256/422

2954 Yards

18 TD

10 INT

38 Rushes

198 Yards

3 TD

 

[David Yudkin]

Here are the career PPG numbers for some of the top QBs . . .

McNabb 20.4

Brady 19.8

PManning 21.7

Big Ben 17.4

Romo 21.2

Brees 18.2

Palmer 18.8

Bulger 19.2

There's no doubt that McNabb will get you a lot of points, but you never know how many games he'll play in any given season . . .

 

[Max Power]

I've been hearing McNabb has been looking pretty good this pre-season, Can anyone verify this?

With a Healthy McNabb there could be some serious value to be had with guys like Curtis or LJ Smith

 

[T Bell]

I've been hearing McNabb has been looking pretty good this pre-season, Can anyone verify this?With a Healthy McNabb there could be some serious value to be had with guys like Curtis or LJ Smith

McNabb is a top-5 QB when he's healthy. The problem is he can only be relied upon to play around two-thirds of his team's games. Even if you have a good backup, you're effectively going to lose at least one game with him because that will be the game in which he's injured in the 2nd quarter and comes out of the game. It can be maddening, especially if you're in a relatively QB-heavy league with 6 pts/TD, for example. His PPG make him a steal at his ADP; his durability, not so much.

 

[Colt Of Personality]

I expect more of the same. He just doesn't look poised in the pocket. I never hear about the happy feet - its a terrible habbit of his. In the panthers game he looked SO uncomfortable even though he had some VERY good protection.

He has a wide open Kevin Curtis 10 -15 yard downfield he overthrows him. Rarely I see a WR hit in stride. And more than a few times he holds the ball to pass instead of running when approaching the line of scrimmage. The other night he even crossed the line of scrimmage.

Being an Eagles fan, I've just come to realize - it is what it is, but McNabb's superbowl window has been closed for a couple of years now.

As far as fantasy, IF he stays healthy you'll get games where he looks fantastic, and others where it will be a FG fest.

 

[packersfan]

I've been hearing McNabb has been looking pretty good this pre-season, Can anyone verify this?With a Healthy McNabb there could be some serious value to be had with guys like Curtis or LJ Smith

McNabb is a top-5 QB when he's healthy. The problem is he can only be relied upon to play around two-thirds of his team's games. Even if you have a good backup, you're effectively going to lose at least one game with him because that will be the game in which he's injured in the 2nd quarter and comes out of the game. It can be maddening, especially if you're in a relatively QB-heavy league with 6 pts/TD, for example. His PPG make him a steal at his ADP; his durability, not so much.

I agree. The issue I have with drafting McNabb is it will force me to take a QB2 sooner than I want to make sure I have a strong backup in place for when McNabb gets hurt again. And given his history, the odds are probably about 99% that he will suffer an injury at some point during the season and miss some time. If you wait too long and get a risky backup you could be sunk if McNabb's injury turns out to be major and he misses extensive time. That's the primary issue I have with drafting McNabb. I think if you want to land a top QB he's a great value because, unlike Manning, Romo, Brees or Palmer you don't have to use a 2nd-4th round pick on him. But if you draft one of those QBs you can wait until much later to draft your backup because chances are you won't need him (or in a 2-QB league you can still wait until later because those QBs should give you strong production so you won't come up short at the position during certain weeks). With McNabb, I think you're forced to take your QB2 sooner which means you could miss out on some value at another position.

 

[Sabertooth]

I've been hearing McNabb has been looking pretty good this pre-season, Can anyone verify this?With a Healthy McNabb there could be some serious value to be had with guys like Curtis or LJ Smith

McNabb is a top-5 QB when he's healthy. The problem is he can only be relied upon to play around two-thirds of his team's games. Even if you have a good backup, you're effectively going to lose at least one game with him because that will be the game in which he's injured in the 2nd quarter and comes out of the game. It can be maddening, especially if you're in a relatively QB-heavy league with 6 pts/TD, for example. His PPG make him a steal at his ADP; his durability, not so much.

Do you believe in predicting injuries for players? Because I don't. It is a combination of bad luck and playing style usually. McNabb is obviously best on the move so he takes more shots than Manning, but if he can keep it together for a season, he could potentially throw up top numbers. Also, if he gets hurt for a month in the middle of the season and you have Kolb or say a halfway decent backup like Leinart or Garcia, you can generally fight through it. If he returns for the playoffs you get that productions. So you kind of have to look at him this way if you think he'll get hurt.McNabb PPG over last 4 seasons (22.9) x games you think he'll play (say 12) = 273 +Point his reliever gets while he is out.

 

[packersfan]

I've been hearing McNabb has been looking pretty good this pre-season, Can anyone verify this?With a Healthy McNabb there could be some serious value to be had with guys like Curtis or LJ Smith

McNabb is a top-5 QB when he's healthy. The problem is he can only be relied upon to play around two-thirds of his team's games. Even if you have a good backup, you're effectively going to lose at least one game with him because that will be the game in which he's injured in the 2nd quarter and comes out of the game. It can be maddening, especially if you're in a relatively QB-heavy league with 6 pts/TD, for example. His PPG make him a steal at his ADP; his durability, not so much.

Do you believe in predicting injuries for players? Because I don't.

I think if you have a player who consistently misses games each season due to injury you can predict with some measure of safety that he will miss time again. McNabb falls into that category and that's why he's such a great value pick right now. Nobody believes he'll play the full season. If they did, he'd be sitting in the third-round area where guys like Romo and Brees currently reside.

 

[T Bell]

I've been hearing McNabb has been looking pretty good this pre-season, Can anyone verify this?With a Healthy McNabb there could be some serious value to be had with guys like Curtis or LJ Smith

McNabb is a top-5 QB when he's healthy. The problem is he can only be relied upon to play around two-thirds of his team's games. Even if you have a good backup, you're effectively going to lose at least one game with him because that will be the game in which he's injured in the 2nd quarter and comes out of the game. It can be maddening, especially if you're in a relatively QB-heavy league with 6 pts/TD, for example. His PPG make him a steal at his ADP; his durability, not so much.

Do you believe in predicting injuries for players? Because I don't. It is a combination of bad luck and playing style usually. McNabb is obviously best on the move so he takes more shots than Manning, but if he can keep it together for a season, he could potentially throw up top numbers. Also, if he gets hurt for a month in the middle of the season and you have Kolb or say a halfway decent backup like Leinart or Garcia, you can generally fight through it. If he returns for the playoffs you get that productions. So you kind of have to look at him this way if you think he'll get hurt.McNabb PPG over last 4 seasons (22.9) x games you think he'll play (say 12) = 273 +Point his reliever gets while he is out.

To answer your question:- yes, I believe in predicting injuries, at least in terms of generally evaluating injury history and risk. - no, I don't believe in actually projecting future injuries and putting them into my preseason projections; if the injuries already exist ("Player X will miss the first four games . . .") then I'll do that, but that's different from actually predicting injury risk. I project for 16 games, rank the players using VBD, and then on draft day decide whether I'm comfortable drafting a given player at a given spot in the rankings using injury risk (and other factors) as my guide. McNabb is injury prone. There's no getting around it. I know because it's killed me for years in one dynasty league where I've had him. Does that stop him from playing 16 games this year? No, it doesn't, but I've got major concerns with him staying healthy for the entire season.

 

[Eradicator]

I am amused at the inverse correlation of Eagles fans and Fantasy fans of McNabb. Usually the homers are higher on 'their guy' than normal. But, it makes sense. I've had him a couple of times and he seems to be better for fantasy than real life. Running yds., a pass 1st offense and BWesty give him great fantasy #'s, but he seems to choke in the clutch for the Eagles.

He doesn't look like a great NFL QB a lot of times. I totally agree w/ the happy feet, inaccurate throws, etc. It's also annoyed me at times when he throws an incompletion on 3rd down and smiles/laughes as he trots off the field. What's so f'n funny? You failed. You don't see Brady or Manning do that.

That being said, when he's healthy and plays he produces fantasy #'s. Period. He was undervalued 2 yrs ago and was the leauges leading scorer through 7 weeks or so before the knee inury. He was probably overvalued a bit last yr. as he was still coming off an injury and looked fat/out of sorts. He looks back to being undervalued to me this year since he's healthy. I'm targeting him with my 5th/6th rnd pick at #60/61.

 

[travdogg]

I am amused at the inverse correlation of Eagles fans and Fantasy fans of McNabb. Usually the homers are higher on 'their guy' than normal. But, it makes sense. I've had him a couple of times and he seems to be better for fantasy than real life. Running yds., a pass 1st offense and BWesty give him great fantasy #'s, but he seems to choke in the clutch for the Eagles.

He doesn't look like a great NFL QB a lot of times. I totally agree w/ the happy feet, inaccurate throws, etc. It's also annoyed me at times when he throws an incompletion on 3rd down and smiles/laughes as he trots off the field. What's so f'n funny? You failed. You don't see Brady or Manning do that.

That being said, when he's healthy and plays he produces fantasy #'s. Period. He was undervalued 2 yrs ago and was the leauges leading scorer through 7 weeks or so before the knee inury. He was probably overvalued a bit last yr. as he was still coming off an injury and looked fat/out of sorts. He looks back to being undervalued to me this year since he's healthy. I'm targeting him with my 5th/6th rnd pick at #60/61.

McNabb and Favre are really the only 2 guys I've seen who do that constantly.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

I am amused at the inverse correlation of Eagles fans and Fantasy fans of McNabb. Usually the homers are higher on 'their guy' than normal. But, it makes sense. I've had him a couple of times and he seems to be better for fantasy than real life. Running yds., a pass 1st offense and BWesty give him great fantasy #'s, but he seems to choke in the clutch for the Eagles.

He doesn't look like a great NFL QB a lot of times. I totally agree w/ the happy feet, inaccurate throws, etc. It's also annoyed me at times when he throws an incompletion on 3rd down and smiles/laughes as he trots off the field. What's so f'n funny? You failed. You don't see Brady or Manning do that.

That being said, when he's healthy and plays he produces fantasy #'s. Period. He was undervalued 2 yrs ago and was the leauges leading scorer through 7 weeks or so before the knee inury. He was probably overvalued a bit last yr. as he was still coming off an injury and looked fat/out of sorts. He looks back to being undervalued to me this year since he's healthy. I'm targeting him with my 5th/6th rnd pick at #60/61.

I think the operative phrase there is "Eagles fans" more so than "McNabb".

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

What's the take on McNoodle now? Curtis is gone likely between 1/4 & 1/2 the year. Reggie Brown is the same mediocre (and now injured) Reggie Brown we've grown to love. LJ Smith will probably get hurt any second. And you have rookie Desean Jackson.

I hope you folks keep targetting at 5.12/6.01. Un#######g real. Just take Bulger too and maybe you'll get a half season combined out of both. Then take Matt Ryan as your QB3 and maybe he'll grow up by Week 8.

 

[FavreCo]

What's the take on McNoodle now? Curtis is gone likely between 1/4 & 1/2 the year. Reggie Brown is the same mediocre (and now injured) Reggie Brown we've grown to love. LJ Smith will probably get hurt any second. And you have rookie Desean Jackson.I hope you folks keep targetting at 5.12/6.01. Un#######g real. Just take Bulger too and maybe you'll get a half season combined out of both. Then take Matt Ryan as your QB3 and maybe he'll grow up by Week 8.

Where the heck is Pinkston when you need him.Looks like a heavy dose of Westbrook this year. If he gets hurt, this team dives to the cellar of the NFC East.

 

[simey]

What's the take on McNoodle now?

Why do you call him McNoodle?

 

[OPS]

I took him last year in the early 4th round and I won my league with him at QB. He was inconsistent and banged up early in the year so I used another QB frequently, but he actually came around at the end of the year and was a great asset for my playoff push.

I am of the mindset that you need to be aggressive and take a few risks if your goal is to win a championship. The risks don't always payoff, but when they do it is a tremendous reward. Drafting McNabb is a risk I took again this year. I got him in the sixth round this year. If he is healthy, he will put up numbers worthy of a QB taken in round 2/3. I think that presents great value, albeit with some risk attached.

 

[gardener]

I've been hearing McNabb has been looking pretty good this pre-season, Can anyone verify this?With a Healthy McNabb there could be some serious value to be had with guys like Curtis or LJ Smith

McNabb is a top-5 QB when he's healthy. The problem is he can only be relied upon to play around two-thirds of his team's games. Even if you have a good backup, you're effectively going to lose at least one game with him because that will be the game in which he's injured in the 2nd quarter and comes out of the game. It can be maddening, especially if you're in a relatively QB-heavy league with 6 pts/TD, for example. His PPG make him a steal at his ADP; his durability, not so much.

Do you believe in predicting injuries for players? Because I don't. It is a combination of bad luck and playing style usually. McNabb is obviously best on the move so he takes more shots than Manning, but if he can keep it together for a season, he could potentially throw up top numbers. Also, if he gets hurt for a month in the middle of the season and you have Kolb or say a halfway decent backup like Leinart or Garcia, you can generally fight through it. If he returns for the playoffs you get that productions. So you kind of have to look at him this way if you think he'll get hurt.McNabb PPG over last 4 seasons (22.9) x games you think he'll play (say 12) = 273 +Point his reliever gets while he is out.

To answer your question:- yes, I believe in predicting injuries, at least in terms of generally evaluating injury history and risk. - no, I don't believe in actually projecting future injuries and putting them into my preseason projections; if the injuries already exist ("Player X will miss the first four games . . .") then I'll do that, but that's different from actually predicting injury risk. I project for 16 games, rank the players using VBD, and then on draft day decide whether I'm comfortable drafting a given player at a given spot in the rankings using injury risk (and other factors) as my guide. McNabb is injury prone. There's no getting around it. I know because it's killed me for years in one dynasty league where I've had him. Does that stop him from playing 16 games this year? No, it doesn't, but I've got major concerns with him staying healthy for the entire season.

I agree with his injury concerns, but these trends do not necessarily have to be a future pattern, think Fred Taylor. Possible to be healthy, but draft only when he presents sufficient value.As for there being no need to take a quality backup if you draft one of the studs. If this was the case, there would be no news or postings about Brady's toe and Manning's knee.

 

[SteelerMurf]

Here are the career PPG numbers for some of the top QBs . . .McNabb 20.4Brady 19.8PManning 21.7Big Ben 17.4Romo 21.2Brees 18.2Palmer 18.8Bulger 19.2There's no doubt that McNabb will get you a lot of points, but you never know how many games he'll play in any given season . . .

Wow, I always thought that but seeing the numbers really smacks you in the face.I think McNabb coupled with an above average backup is a nice option if you miss out on the top 5 QBs.

 

[dirtywaters20]

What's the take on McNoodle now? Curtis is gone likely between 1/4 & 1/2 the year. Reggie Brown is the same mediocre (and now injured) Reggie Brown we've grown to love. LJ Smith will probably get hurt any second. And you have rookie Desean Jackson.

I hope you folks keep targetting at 5.12/6.01. Un#######g real. Just take Bulger too and maybe you'll get a half season combined out of both. Then take Matt Ryan as your QB3 and maybe he'll grow up by Week 8.

Where the heck is Pinkston when you need him.Looks like a heavy dose of Westbrook this year. If he gets hurt, this team dives to the cellar of the NFC East.

Wow that's deep. Removing the focal point of a team's offense & one of the best players in the league at his position, could have a very detrimental effect on the team's win loss record.