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Player Spotlight: Donovan McNabb (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Donovan McNabb Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
McNabb has to be feeling very good about his present situation in Philly, but also some definite urgency with the addition of some youthful playmakers, a beefed-up, younger, and more talented o-line to go along with a new contract extension. Knowing that the window of opportunity is closing fast, I believe McNabb senses that this year may be his best shot at a championship with the Eagles given Westbrook's mortality and the possibility that DC Jim Johnson could be nearing the end of his coaching era in Philly as well. Combining all of these factors, I expect to see a very motivated "No. 5" in 2009.

Projections:

320-528 (62% Comp), 3875 yds, 27 TDs, 12 Ints

35 rushes, 145 yds, 3 TDs

Dynamite year for a future HOFer!....

 
If he can last 16 games, I think McNabb is in for a good season. There is risk with him as your QB, and his yard will never be top-flight, but he provides a solid mid-late QB1 value.

530 Attempts

320 Completions

3816 Yards Passing

7.2 YPA

22 TDs

10 Ints

50 Rushes

200 Yards Rushing

1 TD

 
I have always been a fan of McNabb and really don't know exactly why. Its not the accuracy and even after 10 seasons in the BFL, he still absorbs some huge hits and misses games. He has played in all 16 games only four of the ten seasons. Its not year to year consistency either. Not counting his rookie year, he has finished consecutively at 5, 6, 14, 13, 3, 20, 10, 12, and 7 last year.

I am more confident in his potential for fantasy success in 09 however. I think that with Westbrook's age, there is a chance they stick to the pass pass and pass again pattern. Donovan had 571 passing attempts and I think that he will come close to matching that in 09. His weapons are even better this year. DeSean Jackson is a year wiser, Kevin Curtis is more likely to be ready at season's start, they added Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

Donovan McNabb 570 attempts 360 completions 63.2% 4000 yds 7.0 ypa 26 TDs and 15 ints with 100 rush yards and 2 TDs

 
McNabb is one of those guys people seem to absolutely love or hate. The way I look at him, even if you assume you'll miss a game or two, he's a perpetual QB1 on a per game basis and arguably brings to the table his best offensive supporting cast this year.

 
I don't get the whole "window of opportunity closing" argument as a basis for predicting McNabb's production this year. In the end his numbers will be good-to-great based on his performance and the performance of his surrounding talent and the Eagles offense as a whole. Health is involved somewhat too, but I never really worry too much about any players health/injury situation. He'll either get hurt or he won't and I am no good at predicting either based on past instances. If others want to calculate injury possibility into their predictions, so be it, but I'm not going to.

As mentioned before, the talent pool surrounding McNabb on the Eagles this year is pretty impressive and he can't complain about not having the weapons necessary to help him carry this team to a SB title. The Eagles historically spread the ball around a ton to numerous targets (under Reid) and I don't see that changing this year, nor do I see the pass-to-run ratio changing all that much either. Maybe a small drop towards a 50/50 split, but not nearly as much as most Eagles fans would like to see. I predict a split closer to last year....59/41.

O-line: The Eagles offensive line was pretty darn good last year and got considerably better in the off-season. I think McNabb's attempts will remain about the same but his completions will go up due to line play. He'll have more time to throw the ball and will be pressured less, thus more completions. So I'm predicting his comp/att ratio will get considerably better also.

RB situation. It's clear to all of us that Westbrook is McNabb's crutch when he gets in trouble behind the line of scrimmage. In the past, when Westy has been unavailable on game day, the Eagles have not had a complementary back to sub in without missing a beat. This year they do. Either because of lack of talent and the coaching staff altering the game plan, or McNabb just trying to do it all himself, McNabb has struggled in the past when veering away from a "typical" Eagles game plan. I just can't see the Eagles moving away from their typical game plan now that they have (what most everyone in the football community seems to feel is a solid fill-in for Westy) McCoy.

WR situation: The Eagles have arguably the most talent they've ever had at the WR position this year than any other year in McNabb's career. Curtis is looking like he'll be healthy at the start of the season. Jackson is an explosive talent that should see more targets this year. Maclin looks like he'll get plenty of opportunities to produce this year and I expect the Eagles will utilize him as much (or more) than they did with Jackson last year.

TE situation: Celek and Ingram will provide a good number of opportunities in 2-TE sets and will be used heavily at the goal line. A plus for McNabb. The talent level at this position is better than in most previous years. (Good-bye LJ, you've outlasted your welcome here. NO more endzone dropped passes by YOU!!!)

McNabb 2009 Predictions:

16 games

390 completions, 570 attempts, 68.42 comp%

4,147 passing yards

10.6 yards per completion

31 TD's

9 Int's

25 rushes

113 yards

4.52 yards per rush

2 TD's

4,260 total yards

33 total TD's

Good enough numbers for top 5 QB production. At a current ADP of 55 overall and QB8 ranking, McNabb provides great value if selected near that range. Don't miss out on the opportunity to draft him if he falls far enough and others are iffy about selecting him. You won't be sorry!

Side note: I do believe that McNabb's contract concerns and surrounding talent concerns have distracted him in past years but he will have neither excuse this year and will be able to fully concentrate during TC and pre-season on the task at hand.....leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl win. Having neither of these distractions is a plus in my book as he just recently restructured his contract and the Eagles are arguably more talented team-wise than any other previous year with McNabb at the helm.

Rody

ETA: Yes, I realize these numbers would produce his best season as a QB in the NFL and he just had that type of season last year. But I really do think he can and will improve upon 2008's numbers. It's not unheard of for a veteran QB to produce career numbers in their tenth year in the league.

 
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Surprised by the relatively small turnout so far on Donnie Mac, considering his position as a guy who garners a tremendous amount of love and hate. Halfway through last season people were ready to declare his days as a starter in Philly over, but Kevin Kolb botched his chance to grab the job away and McNabb ended up feeding off that "slight" in Baltimore and ending the season on a roll. This year he has a cadre of weapons at his disposal, but that assumes that the moves on the offensive line pan out AND that Brian Westbrook is able to approximate his normal self for at least the bulk of the season.

McNabb has more often than not put up elite fantasy numbers on a per game basis; and I think that gets overlooked too much. I would personally rather have a QB that gives me Top 5 numbers for 12 weeks and then I have to use a backup for the other four weeks than I would a QB that slots most of the time at QB10, which means I'm effectively at a disadvantage in H2H almost every week.

What do you all think?

Are you comfortable in Philly's O-Line overhaul? The consensus has been glowingly positive, but getting two new tackles in place is never a sure thing. And how does your outlook for McNabb change if Brian Westbrook misses a big chunk of the season? Do you think the likes of Jeremy Maclin will matter this year?

 
I like him a lot - enough to put him in the same tier as Rivers/Rodgers/Warner but better value as he's usually available a good bit after those guys, or at least in non-local drafts. Wish I didn't live in Philly. Only downside is I feel compelled to spend another mid-round insurance pick on a good back-up like Schaub/Palmer/Cutler cause of his health history.

 
I think he's in line for a great season. DeSean Jackson is going to take a leap forward and become a viable #2/borderline #1 fantasy WR. McNabb has enough weapons that he'll be able to spread the ball around and put up some gaudy numbers. His only question is health, but last year he was able to stay on the field. He's one of the reasons you can wait on a QB a little and grab a viable #1 later.

3950 yds, 28 Tds, 16 INTs, 180 rushing, 2 TDs

 
He's the guy I'm targeting. I see him finishing stronger than Rivers and Romo, who consistently go before him. If you look at what that does to the drop in value between remaining available QBs in the 5th round (McNabb's current ADP), it's huge. Essentially, the next best QBs (Big Ben or Cutler) are projecting out to be about 30 points less. Nowhere in the QB stack is there such value. I observed a similar pattern with Cutler in 2008, Big Ben in 2007, and Michael Vick in 2006. The notable difference is that those guys were drafted later than McNabb is being drafted, but I don't think it changes the concept at all.

This has just motivated me to post my QB targeting process in another thread.

Projection:

Passing - 3800/26, 16 ints

Rushing - 200/2, 6 fumbles

 
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Surprised by the relatively small turnout so far on Donnie Mac, considering his position as a guy who garners a tremendous amount of love and hate. Halfway through last season people were ready to declare his days as a starter in Philly over, but Kevin Kolb botched his chance to grab the job away and McNabb ended up feeding off that "slight" in Baltimore and ending the season on a roll. This year he has a cadre of weapons at his disposal, but that assumes that the moves on the offensive line pan out AND that Brian Westbrook is able to approximate his normal self for at least the bulk of the season.
Without Westbrook McNabb is hurting as a QB. WEstbrook took over as the starting RB for good in 2004- McNabb's completion % prior to 2004 was 57%- with 58.4% being his highest. Since 2004 Mcnabb has had a 60.7% average with a 64% season mixed in. Since 2004 Westbrook has averaged 46 yards a game receiving and 0.35 Tds. Thats almost 5 pts per game McNabb gets with Westbrook in there. I think with the Eagles' offensive line you can replicate Westbrook's rushing stats fairly well- 1200 yards on 4.3 per carry isn't to hard to do with a good o-line- but very few RBs score 4-5 receiving TDs a year (Tomlinson has scroed 4 once, priest Holmes never did- basically only Marshal Faulk comes to mind, and few average 650 yards receiving. Concerns about Westbrook = concerns about Mcnabb's upside and Phillies whole offense.
 

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