Player Spotlight: Drew Brees (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link: Drew Brees Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

373 - 565 4238 yds. 27 TD 13 ints

22 ru. 44 yds. 1 TD

Perennial top 10 now, I see nothing to change that.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

By now Drew Bress' studliness can't be denied. He's been a top fantasy QB 4 straight seasons now and he's been elite the past 2 seasons in New Orleans. The return of Deuce and Bush from injury should actually help increase his numbers this season.

When you consider how poorly he started the season (1 TD 9 INT first 4 games) you wonder what would have happened if the Saints hadn't started the season playing like crap.

4400 yards 30 TD 15 INT

Peyton Manning's stats at a lower price. I'll take it.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Brees had a wonderful second half of the season last year after an awful first four games. The key to Drew's success will be the continued maturation of his young pass catching crew. Colston is still young, as is Bush catching passes out of the backfield. If Meachem can grow and move into a prominent role, this offense becomes even better. I see great things this year for the Saint passing game, and Drew in general.

4350 pass yards, 28 TDs, 15 INT, 1 rush TD.

 

[zamboni]

When you consider how poorly he started the season (1 TD 9 INT first 4 games) you wonder what would have happened if the Saints hadn't started the season playing like crap.

No question - I recall discussions about whether he should be dropped outright after those first few games.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

When you consider how poorly he started the season (1 TD 9 INT first 4 games) you wonder what would have happened if the Saints hadn't started the season playing like crap.

No question - I recall discussions about whether he should be dropped outright after those first few games.

As do I. I came within a hairsbreadth of getting him away from his owner in my money league last season, but he balked last minute. Jerk. Any development from Meacham, or furthered development of Colston, can do nothing but help Drew. David Patten shouldn't be discounted totally either. The pieces are all there for Brees to continue to excel. I see no compelling reason that he won't. As someone allluded to above, I think "Manning Lite numbers at a much more agreeable price" would be a fair expectation, with the shot to be a little better than this if things break favorably:4300+ yards, 27+ TDs w/somewhere between 13-15 picks. Negligible rushing statistics.

 

[saintfool]

the key for brees is that o-line. while they gave up very few sacks, they struggled during the first half of the season. they weren't especially effective in run blocking. they allowed brees to get pressured. more importantly, they allowed brees to feel pressured.

the o-line returns largely intact. they did lose the C (faine) but were able to finally start goodwin. they even drafted a road grating OT fron nebraska, who payton seems to appreciate.

i see more balance brought to the saints offensively. deuce is expected to return. reggie will give them flexibility on 3rd down. they know what they have with pierre thomas now. heck, they have even made additions and chnages to the defense. there are no excuses really.

brees passes less in 2008. net result is better efficiency. 4000 yards. 25 tds. 12 ints. 1 rushing td.

 

[eric rymer]

By now Drew Bress' studliness can't be denied. He's been a top fantasy QB 4 straight seasons now and he's been elite the past 2 seasons in New Orleans. The return of Deuce and Bush from injury should actually help increase his numbers this season. When you consider how poorly he started the season (1 TD 9 INT first 4 games) you wonder what would have happened if the Saints hadn't started the season playing like crap.4400 yards 30 TD 15 INT Peyton Manning's stats at a lower price. I'll take it.

his stats last year were very impressive seeing how poorly he started.4500 yds 32 TDs 14 INT's

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Brees has partly been a product of a good offense and terrible defense. If the defense improves this year, allowing the Saints to avoid playing from behind, I'd expect Brees to take a hit in the stats department. Conservatively, it seems reasonable to project a 10% decline in yardage. However, his TD/INT ratio is interesting.....given that he started so poorly in 2007. 2-to-1 ratio seems reasonable.

Average over the past 2 seasons:

4,420 yards

27 TDs

14.5 INTs

2008 projection:

4,000 yards

26 TDs

13 INTs

 

[Afro Samurai]

Offensive line has to do their job. Drew is unstoppable with decent protection, but when the line struggles (as they did throughout last season) he's just awful.

Assuming the line returns to competence and the defense sees a marginal improvement (both reasonable expectations IMO) look for those interception numbers to drop. I think the yardage will drop slightly as well because I expect the running game will improve (let's face it, you can't do much worse than the 3.8 ypc Saints running backs averaged last year).

4100 yards

26 TD

8 INT

 

[Jason Wood]

Every game counts and while it's certainly true that Brees tough first month put his owners behind the 8-ball, those with the patience to stick with him were MORE than rewarded. Let's just put a finer point on how absurdly good his final 12 games were:

*** 331 completions

*** 478 attempts

*** 69.3% completion rate!

*** 7.3 yards per attempt

*** 3,499 yards (292 per game)

*** 27 TD passes (2.3 per game)

*** 9 INTs (0.8 per game)

And here's the thing, the underlying skills weren't missing in those first four games either. Yes, he threw only 1 TD against 9 interceptions, but he still completely 63.3% of his passes. In fact, Brees completely less than 60% of his passes in just two GAMES last year (compare that against QBs like Eli Manning who average 56% completion rates over an entire season).

What was most impressive is the way Brees managed to produce regardless of who caught the ball. The Saints seemed to have an interchangeable cast of characters once you get past uber-stud Marques Colston; and the cupboards are stocked yet again in 2008.

 

[radballs]

4,200 passing yards, 26 TDs, 16 INTs, 30 rushes for 50 yards and 1 TD

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Every game counts and while it's certainly true that Brees tough first month put his owners behind the 8-ball, those with the patience to stick with him were MORE than rewarded. Let's just put a finer point on how absurdly good his final 12 games were:*** 331 completions*** 478 attempts*** 69.3% completion rate!*** 7.3 yards per attempt*** 3,499 yards (292 per game)*** 27 TD passes (2.3 per game)*** 9 INTs (0.8 per game)And here's the thing, the underlying skills weren't missing in those first four games either. Yes, he threw only 1 TD against 9 interceptions, but he still completely 63.3% of his passes. In fact, Brees completely less than 60% of his passes in just two GAMES last year (compare that against QBs like Eli Manning who average 56% completion rates over an entire season).What was most impressive is the way Brees managed to produce regardless of who caught the ball. The Saints seemed to have an interchangeable cast of characters once you get past uber-stud Marques Colston; and the cupboards are stocked yet again in 2008.

Brees did a great job. He had to throw constantly because: a) McAllister was injured and Bush still can't run the ball, b) the defense sucked. But thankfully Brees performed efficiently....I just don't see him getting the opportunity to throw nearly this much in 2008.

 

[gianmarco]

the key for brees is that o-line. while they gave up very few sacks, they struggled during the first half of the season. they weren't especially effective in run blocking. they allowed brees to get pressured. more importantly, they allowed brees to feel pressured.

the o-line returns largely intact. they did lose the C (faine) but were able to finally start goodwin. they even drafted a road grating OT fron nebraska, who payton seems to appreciate.

i see more balance brought to the saints offensively. deuce is expected to return. reggie will give them flexibility on 3rd down. they know what they have with pierre thomas now. heck, they have even made additions and chnages to the defense. there are no excuses really.

brees passes less in 2008. net result is better efficiency. 4000 yards. 25 tds. 12 ints. 1 rushing td.

Exactly what he said. And JWood's post below shows just how exceptional he was for those final 12 games. I'm amazed how low Brees fell in some startup drafts this year.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

This guy is a yardage machine. If you're in a league where you get lots of points for passing yardage and less for passing Td's, this guy gets bumped up the rankings. He can be a little bit streaky but when he's on a roll, he can put up points very quickly. I see more of the same from Drew Brees this season.

4340 yards pasing, 28 Td's and 19 Int's with 1 rushing Td.

 

[gianmarco]

This guy is a yardage machine. If you're in a league where you get lots of points for passing yardage and less for passing Td's, this guy gets bumped up the rankings. He can be a little bit streaky but when he's on a roll, he can put up points very quickly. I see more of the same from Drew Brees this season.4340 yards pasing, 28 Td's and 19 Int's with 1 rushing Td.

What do you mean by "streaky"? Inconsistent? Because of that's what you mean, I think you're kind of off on him. He definitely had a slow start, but that was almost entirely as a result of terrible O-line play. But, starting week 5, Brees delivered every single week. Not just some big weeks and some poor weeks. In fact, in terms of consistency AND production, I can't think of anyone better than Brees aside from Manning.ETA-- From games 5-16, he had 2+ TDs EVERY week except twice (and in both games, he still threw for 290 yds). In games 5-16, he threw under 250 yds twice (219 and 179). As stated just prior, he had 2 TDs in both of those games. So, streaky is not how I would describe Brees at all. Don't think you could make an argument for a more consistent QB (aside from his slow start over weeks 1-4).

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

This guy is a yardage machine. If you're in a league where you get lots of points for passing yardage and less for passing Td's, this guy gets bumped up the rankings. He can be a little bit streaky but when he's on a roll, he can put up points very quickly. I see more of the same from Drew Brees this season.4340 yards pasing, 28 Td's and 19 Int's with 1 rushing Td.

What do you mean by "streaky"? Inconsistent? Because of that's what you mean, I think you're kind of off on him. He definitely had a slow start, but that was almost entirely as a result of terrible O-line play. But, starting week 5, Brees delivered every single week. Not just some big weeks and some poor weeks. In fact, in terms of consistency AND production, I can't think of anyone better than Brees aside from Manning.ETA-- From games 5-16, he had 2+ TDs EVERY week except twice (and in both games, he still threw for 290 yds). In games 5-16, he threw under 250 yds twice (219 and 179). As stated just prior, he had 2 TDs in both of those games. So, streaky is not how I would describe Brees at all. Don't think you could make an argument for a more consistent QB (aside from his slow start over weeks 1-4).

I have to disagree with you. First, you want to just throw to the curb weeks 1-4 as if they're not important. The entire offense didn't play well, but this thread is about Brees and he didn't play well either. I consider him streaky because one week he can get you 43 points, and in other weeks he can get you 13 points.I say this politely, but if you made your SB's in week 16, were you happy with his 13.2 points he put up that week vs. Philly?Were you happy in a must win fantasy win for most in week 13 when he put up 21.3 (maybe, but still not what you expect from a guy who throws for 4400 yards each of the last 2 seasons) and of course week 11 where he scored 17.1 points per game. These point totals were taken from his player profile right here at FBG.Again, I expect another solid year from Brees as you see by my projections.

 

[gianmarco]

This guy is a yardage machine. If you're in a league where you get lots of points for passing yardage and less for passing Td's, this guy gets bumped up the rankings. He can be a little bit streaky but when he's on a roll, he can put up points very quickly. I see more of the same from Drew Brees this season.4340 yards pasing, 28 Td's and 19 Int's with 1 rushing Td.

What do you mean by "streaky"? Inconsistent? Because of that's what you mean, I think you're kind of off on him. He definitely had a slow start, but that was almost entirely as a result of terrible O-line play. But, starting week 5, Brees delivered every single week. Not just some big weeks and some poor weeks. In fact, in terms of consistency AND production, I can't think of anyone better than Brees aside from Manning.ETA-- From games 5-16, he had 2+ TDs EVERY week except twice (and in both games, he still threw for 290 yds). In games 5-16, he threw under 250 yds twice (219 and 179). As stated just prior, he had 2 TDs in both of those games. So, streaky is not how I would describe Brees at all. Don't think you could make an argument for a more consistent QB (aside from his slow start over weeks 1-4).

I have to disagree with you. First, you want to just throw to the curb weeks 1-4 as if they're not important. The entire offense didn't play well, but this thread is about Brees and he didn't play well either. I consider him streaky because one week he can get you 43 points, and in other weeks he can get you 13 points.I say this politely, but if you made your SB's in week 16, were you happy with his 13.2 points he put up that week vs. Philly?Were you happy in a must win fantasy win for most in week 13 when he put up 21.3 (maybe, but still not what you expect from a guy who throws for 4400 yards each of the last 2 seasons) and of course week 11 where he scored 17.1 points per game. These point totals were taken from his player profile right here at FBG.Again, I expect another solid year from Brees as you see by my projections.

Well, we can disagree then. I did NOT throw weeks 1-4 to the curb. But, they were just a horrible stretch. Streaky to me implies ups and downs. He started off slow, but then was up for the remainder of the season. I'm sorry if you were expecting monster games every week and that game against Philly disappointed you. Unfortunately, even a guy like Manning will have an "off" game like the one against Philly. NO ONE is immune to that. But as for game-to-game consistency, show me ONE QB other than Manning that was more consistent than Brees. Streaky is a QB that has 400 yds/4 TDs one week and 150 yds/0 the next and keeps doing this throughout the season. Maybe we just have different definitions of streaky. I guess my question to you is, if you consider Brees "streaky", who do you consider not "streaky"?

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

This guy is a yardage machine. If you're in a league where you get lots of points for passing yardage and less for passing Td's, this guy gets bumped up the rankings. He can be a little bit streaky but when he's on a roll, he can put up points very quickly. I see more of the same from Drew Brees this season.4340 yards pasing, 28 Td's and 19 Int's with 1 rushing Td.

What do you mean by "streaky"? Inconsistent? Because of that's what you mean, I think you're kind of off on him. He definitely had a slow start, but that was almost entirely as a result of terrible O-line play. But, starting week 5, Brees delivered every single week. Not just some big weeks and some poor weeks. In fact, in terms of consistency AND production, I can't think of anyone better than Brees aside from Manning.ETA-- From games 5-16, he had 2+ TDs EVERY week except twice (and in both games, he still threw for 290 yds). In games 5-16, he threw under 250 yds twice (219 and 179). As stated just prior, he had 2 TDs in both of those games. So, streaky is not how I would describe Brees at all. Don't think you could make an argument for a more consistent QB (aside from his slow start over weeks 1-4).

I have to disagree with you. First, you want to just throw to the curb weeks 1-4 as if they're not important. The entire offense didn't play well, but this thread is about Brees and he didn't play well either. I consider him streaky because one week he can get you 43 points, and in other weeks he can get you 13 points.I say this politely, but if you made your SB's in week 16, were you happy with his 13.2 points he put up that week vs. Philly?Were you happy in a must win fantasy win for most in week 13 when he put up 21.3 (maybe, but still not what you expect from a guy who throws for 4400 yards each of the last 2 seasons) and of course week 11 where he scored 17.1 points per game. These point totals were taken from his player profile right here at FBG.Again, I expect another solid year from Brees as you see by my projections.

Well, we can disagree then. I did NOT throw weeks 1-4 to the curb. But, they were just a horrible stretch. Streaky to me implies ups and downs. He started off slow, but then was up for the remainder of the season. I'm sorry if you were expecting monster games every week and that game against Philly disappointed you. Unfortunately, even a guy like Manning will have an "off" game like the one against Philly. NO ONE is immune to that. But as for game-to-game consistency, show me ONE QB other than Manning that was more consistent than Brees. Streaky is a QB that has 400 yds/4 TDs one week and 150 yds/0 the next and keeps doing this throughout the season. Maybe we just have different definitions of streaky. I guess my question to you is, if you consider Brees "streaky", who do you consider not "streaky"?

I think we may differ on opinion of what streaky means.....because I don't necessarily view is as a BAD thing. Of course you'd want anyone to be consistently great all the time, but that isn't really reasonable. By being streaky, at least you have the talent to explode in certain games, hopefully the ones you need them too.To answer your question about who I'd consider consistent last season:Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner and David Garrard. I'd put Romo in the same consistancy tier as Brees, as they were usually pretty solid but every once in awhile they'd explode for a big game.I'd rather have Brees and Romo over Garcia, Warner and Garrard (in fantasy) even though I consider both of those two guys more streaky than the latter 3.